A just released survey by Public Policy Polling in Minnesota reports a very close race heading into Tuesday's caucuses. Rick Santorum bests Mitt Romney, by a mere +2%, 29% to 27%, with Newt Gingrich at 22% and Ron Paul at 19%.

Mitt Romney's substantial victory in yesterday's Florida primary may give him a significant advantage in the GOP presidential nomination contest, but many more primaries and caucuses lie ahead for the Republican field. Here's a breakdown for February:

• Nevada caucuses - February 4
• Maine caucuses - February 4-11
• Minnesota caucuses - February 7
• Missouri primary - February 7
• Colorado caucuses - February 7
• Arizona primary - February 28
• Michigan primary - February 29

In yet another problem for the incumbent president, The Fix examines the most recent state-by-state unemployment numbers and reports "that in every one of the 14 swing states heading into 2012 -- Colorado, Florida, Indiana, Iowa, Michigan, Minnesota, New Mexico, New Hampshire, Nevada, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia and Wisconsin -- the unemployment rate has risen since October 2008."

Two GOP Minnesota politicians are considering a race for president in 2012: Rep. Michele Bachmann and former Gov. Tim Pawlenty. What do the people of the state think about this. A new Public Policy Polling survey reports that Minnesota voters are, at best, cool to the idea: "Only 28% think Pawlenty should seek the White House to 17% who think he should run for the Senate and 45% who think he shouldn't run for anything. There's even less interest in a Bachmann Presidential run -- 14% think she should seek that office to 23% who think she should run for the Senate, 10% who think she should run for reelection to her House seat, and 47% who just want her to go away."

Despite President Obama's somewhat diminished, but still decent, approval rating in the key swing state of Minnesota, voters seem prepared to enthusiastically reelect him over incumbent Republican Governor and likely 2012 presidential candidate, Tim Pawlenty. According new a Public Policy Polling survey, "Obama's approval rating in Minnesota has dropped six points since April, but that doesn't mean voters are responding too positively to some of his Republican alternatives. 54% of voters in the state now give Obama good marks, with 39% saying they disapprove of his job performance. That's down from a 60/30 spread when PPP last polled it in April. Obama has maintained all of his popularity with Democrats but has seen a small drop in his support among independents and a significant one with Republicans. Where before 23% of voters in the opposing party thought he was doing a good job, now just 12% do. Obama nevertheless fares very well when pitted in hypothetical contest against Tim Pawlenty . . . Against Pawlenty Obama leads 51-40, a margin that would actually exceed what he won against John McCain in the state last fall."Significantly, the same poll reveals that he would beat Alaska Governor by a whopping 21-point margin if the 2012 were held today--56% to 35%--"which would be the most lopsided Presidential result in the state since Lyndon Johnson's landslide against Barry Goldwater in 1964"

A close examination of polling out this morning suggests that while a few states have drawn very close--Florida, North Carolina, Montana, and Missouri in particular--the race is appearing to stabilize for Obama. Ohio and Virginia, though having drawn much closer over the past three days--and remain "Too Close To Call" on Today's Map--appear to lean to the Democrat as of this morning. Several states now appear to be leaning to McCain--West Virginia and Indiana. The great news for Obama: all nine states were won by George W. Bush in 2004. The Democrat holds a solid, unusually commanding lead in nearly all of the states won by Kerry, except Pennsylvania (and according to the Reuters/C-SPAN/Zogby poll this morning, Minnesota, where the race has drawn down to 49% to 46% for Obama). The slight bit of good news for McCain, enough voters remain undecided or are persuadable in enough states to produce a few surprises. (This result would imply that these voters, now mostly white and center-right, would trend towards their demographic--as undecided voters often do--and thus would favor McCain by a considerable margin.) But with Obama at or above the 50% mark in many of these battleground states, McCain would also have to pick off a fairly large bloc of voters who now say they are committed to the Democrat. Obama's overall structural advantage in the Kerry-blue states of 2004 also leaves him in much better shape than McCain: the Democrat's lead in "Safe" electoral votes--in which a candidate has a demographic advantage in a state, leads beyond the margin of error, and has a top-line of 50% or more-- now stands at more than 100, 238 to 127. (Obama's number here could drop to 228 if more polls corroborate a narrowing race in Minnesota.) As of this morning, the map solidly favors Obama. PollTrack expects an enormous amount of fresh polling throughout the day, so stay tuned for updates.

With polling averages around the +10% mark and recent polling suggesting a surge for Obama in Minnesota, Michigan, Wisconsin, and Maine, PollTrack moves all four states from "Leaning" to "Safe Democrat."

With Obama's PT average in Minnesota dropping to +8.3%--and two new polls showing him up by only +1% (ARG) or +7% (Rasmusseun)--PollTrack moves the state from "Safe" to "Leaning Democrat" on Today's Map.

With Obama above the 50% mark on average, and with a commanding +10.5% aggregate lead in Minnesota, PollTrack moves that state from "Leaning" to "Safe Democrat" on Today's Map.

While this blog and map do not cover US Senate races, the contest in Minnesota may well impact on the presidential race and vice versa. In the past few presidential cycles, this once reliably Democratic state has trended very close. Recent polls in the state are also instructive to PollTrack readers in another way: they sometimes contradict each other. A poll issued this morning by the Minneapolis Star Tribune Minnesota Poll reports the opposite of yesterday's Survey USA results. In the MST poll, Democrat Al Franken leads Republican first-termer Norm Coleman, 43% to 34%, with 18% for Independence Party candidate, Dean Barkley. Both polls agree on one thing: Barkley is coming on strong. What accounts for these contradictory readings: variations in likely voter models, skewed samples or voter party identification weighting, or statistical blips could be the culprit. PollTrack rarely reports on individual polls, relying instead on poll averages (see tool bar at right: A Note On Poll Averages). Once in a while, when two or more recent statewide polls report a dramatic shift from previous surveys--McCain's ominous dip in Michigan, the leveling off of Obama's support in Colorado, or the two most recent polls in Minnesota showing a statistically significant lead for Coleman (before today's MST poll) and an upswing in McCain's numbers--PollTrack will report on it. Overall, poll averages offer a better (and consistently more accurate) picture of the state of the race, and this blog will continue to rely on them, along with knowledge of statewide demographics and voting history, relevant local and national news events, and the on-the-ground movements and strategies of the campaigns. 

Is the Democratic brand shaky in Minnesota? Yesterday, PollTrack reported that McCain took an insignificant, but still noteworthy lead in the state in one poll conducted by Survey USA. But McCain may not be the only candidate benefiting from the shifting demographics of a state that was once one of the most reliably Democratic, but has seen inroads by Republicans in recent years. The same polling organization reports that incumbent US Senator Norm Coleman may have the upper hand in his race against Democrat Al Franken. First-termer Coleman leads Franken by +10%, 43% to 33%. More extraordinary is the strength of third party candidate, Dean Barkley, who polls at a phenomenal 19%. Other surveys also show Coleman in the lead, but with lower support for Barkley. A Washington Post/Wall Street Journal/Quinnipiac survey conducted Sept. 14-21 had Coleman up, 49% to 42%.The poll did not include Barkley.

A new Survey USA poll in Minnesota suggests movement towards McCain over the past few days. The survey reports a 1% lead for the Republican in the state, 47% t 46%. More importantly, it suggests that Obama has lost a bit of ground in the state over the past two weeks. Is this result suggestive of a trend--is the pendulum swinging once again in a volatile, traditionally Democratic state that's seen much improved numbers for Republicans in recent cycles--or is it just statistical noise, an outlier. Survey USA writes: "Compared to an identical SurveyUSA poll 20 days ago, Obama is down 3 points. How much of this is movement and how much of this is "noise" is unclear. Minnesota behaves unlike other states in some respects. Among women, there is movement to McCain, at a time when McCain is losing ground among women elsewhere. Among voters younger than Obama, there movement to McCain, at a time when Obama is consolidating support among young voters elsewhere. Among voters older than McCain, there is movement to Obama, at a time when older voters elsewhere are sticking by McCain." Could this be why the McCain campaign pulled out of Michigan yesterday? Are they redirecting their resources from a state they believe they can't win to a battleground that is looking better for them in recent days? Let's see where the polling goes in Minnesota over the next week.

With Obama's numbers improving in the state--and reflecting a national upswing in support--PollTrack moves Minnesota from "Too Close To Call" to "Leaning Democrat" on Today's Map.

With recent polls suggesting that Obama's numbers are improving in Minnesota, PollTrack moves the state from "Too Close To Call" to "Leaning Democrat" on Tomorrow's Map. The state remains "To Close To Call" on Today's Map.

Three recent polls indicate a dramatic tightening of the race in Minnesota. It's so close at this point--Obama leads by little more than 1% on average--that PollTrack moves the state back from "Leaning Democrat" to 'Too Close To Call" on Today's Map.

Since the late-1960s, Minnesota has trended Democratic in presidential elections. Indeed, since 1968, MN has gone to the Democrat all but once (in 1972). In recent years, however, the state has been trending red, with one senate seat and the governorship now Republican. Indeed, MN was almost evenly divided in the 2000 and 2004 presidential cycles. Thus, it should not be surprising that two polls released in the past 24 hours--by the Minnesota Star Tribune and Survey USA--show the race a statical dead heat, with the two candidates tied in the former (at 45%), and Obama ahead by a statistically insignificant 2% in the latter. A few weeks ago, a CNN survey had Obama leading by 12%. PollTrack now calls the race "To Close To Call" on Tomorrow's Map and keeps it "Leaning Democrat" on Today's Map.

Based on polling over the past week, PollTrack moves Minnesota, a key swing state, from "To-Close-To-Call" to "Leaning Democrat."

The most recent polling from Minnesota--a key swing state--suggests that the race has tightened considerably, with McCain pulling nearly even with Obama. One of the most reliable public opinion polls in this cycle, Survey USA, shows the two in a statistical tie, with Obama inching out McCain by two points.

Once reliably Democratic, Minnesota's presidential races have been surprisingly close in the past few elections. Another reason for the closeness of the race: the Democratic challenger in the state's US Senate race--between comedian and writer Al Franken (Dem) and incumbent Norm Coleman (Rep)--has faltered, leaving the incumbent in a better position that most had predicted even a few months earlier. The locale of the Republican convention next month--Minneapolis--may also work in McCain's favor in November.

Why is it so close? Indeed, since Obama's widely reported overseas trip--and the rush of anti-Obama ads and videos that paint the candidate as elitist and out of touch with most voters--McCain has shown signs of closing the gap further. In a few key swing states, such as Missouri and Florida, McCain is actually pulling ahead by a modest margin. While my polling average for Florida (for the past month) shows the election extremely close (+1.8% REP), the most recent round of polling indicates a modest surge for McCain, thus the state is now "Leaning Republican." In the mother of all swing states, Ohio, McCain has pulled even to an absolute tie (45.3% to 45.3% poll average). And the race has narrowed slightly in Pennsylvania, Iowa, and Minnesota, although the Democrat retains his lead in all three states. The candidates' inability to break the 50% mark in any swing state, suggests that neither is walking away with this race.

Terry Madonna, poll director of the Franklin & Marshall organization, says of the narrowing of the race in Pennsylvania: "[Obama's] on third base, but so far he can't seem to find a way to get home. Look at the underlying trends. The economy is a huge issue. Bush's ratings are terrible. But too many voters are concerned about Obama's experience, and don't yet have enough confidence in his ability to lead."