Presidential Race Maps Writing on the Wall

Liberalism On The Upswing

Posted Jan 21, 2014 at 2:10 PM by Maurice Berger

According to a survey by Gallup, "Americans continue to be more likely to identify as conservatives (38%) than as liberals (23%). But the conservative advantage is down to 15 percentage points as liberal identification edged up to its highest level since Gallup began regularly measuring ideology in the current format in 1992."

More Voters Identify As Socially Liberal

Posted Jun 12, 2013 at 9:38 AM by Maurice Berger

According to a new poll by Gallup, "while economic liberalism remains stagnant, the percentage of Americans describing their social views as "liberal" or "very liberal" has achieved a new peak of 30% -- in line with Gallup's recent finding that Americans are more accepting on a number of moral issues. 35% of Americans say they are conservative or very conservative on social issues and 32% self-identify as socially moderate."

Fewer Americans Identify as Economic Conservatives in 2013

Posted Jun 11, 2013 at 9:40 AM by Maurice Berger

According to a survey by Gallup, "41% of Americans now characterize their economic views as 'conservative' or "' conservative,' the lowest since President Barack Obama took office in 2009 and on par with where views were in May 2008. This year's down tick in the percentage of Americans identifying as economically conservative has been accompanied by an uptick in the percentage identifying as economically moderate -- now 37% of Americans, up from 32% last year. The percentage of Americans calling themselves economic liberals has remained virtually unchanged from last year at 19%, and has not fluctuated much since 2001."

A Note On "Independent" Voters

Posted Nov 06, 2012 at 9:57 AM by Maurice Berger

Much has been made by commentators about Mitt Romney's lead with independent voters in a number of the latest tracking polls. A note of caution: this year, and very much due to the rise of the Tea Party, many voters who self-describe as "independent" are, in fact, Tea Party conservatives (many of whom are supporting Romney). When surveys consider the sentiment of another key demographic group--one heretofore associated with independent voters, but not necessarily in this cycle--"moderates," i.e., voters in the middle of the political spectrum, many disillusioned by two-part polarization--Obama leads, by as much as +20%. Will this cycle dynamically redefine the term "independent"? PollTrack will have more on this issue after Election 2012.

Increasing Number of Americans View Obama As Moderate

Posted Jan 21, 2011 at 1:29 AM by Maurice Berger

As Political Wire notes, a new Wall Street Journal/NBC News poll reveals a potentially significant change in public perception about President Obama: 40% see him as a moderate, as compared with 45% who see him as a liberal and 11% who view him as a conservative. The number of voters who see him as moderate is the highest ever for Obama in the WSJ/NBC poll.

Conservativism Popular, But Moderates And Liberals Dominate

Posted Jan 15, 2010 at 12:53 AM by Maurice Berger

Despite the inroads made by Democrats in recent years--and the historic election of Barack Obama as president--more Americans consider themselves conservative relative to other political mindsets: "The increased conservatism . . . identified among Americans last June persisted throughout the year, so that the final year-end political ideology figures confirm Gallup’s initial reporting: conservatives (40%) outnumbered both moderates (36%) and liberals (21%) across the nation in 2009." PollTrack points out that the combined total of moderates and liberals--now at 61%--far outnumbers conservatives. So it's hard to say if Gallup figure has broader meaning relative to changes in the electorate.