With a new survey by WMUR Granite State Poll reporting that  President Obama's standing in New Hampshire has improved considerably over the past six months--Obama's approval rating now stands at 51% and he beats Mitt Romney in a possible general election match up, 50% to 40%--PollTrack moves the state on Today's Presidential Map from Too-Close-Too-Call to Leaning Democratic.

A new USAToday/Gallup survey of the dozen states likely to determine the outcome of November's election--Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Michigan, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Mexico, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia and Wisconsin--concludes that Mitt Romney is the "GOP contender with the best chance of denying Obama a second term." The poll reports that "in a head-to-head race, Romney leads Obama by a statistically insignificant percentage point, 48%-47% . . . But Obama leads Gingrich, 54%-40%. The president's standing against him has risen nine points since early December; Gingrich has fallen by eight. Gingrich fares less well than Texas Rep. Ron Paul, who trails Obama by seven points, 50%-43%, and former Pennsylvania senator Rick Santorum, who also trails by seven points, 51%-44%."

With a slew of new polls showing Romney ahead in New Hampshire, PollTrack wonders by how much and who will be his closest challenger. A new poll from Public Policy Polling reports that Mitt Romney has a substantial lead in the Republican presidential race with 35%, followed by Ron Paul at 18%, Jon Huntsman at 16%, Newt Gingrich at 12%, Rick Santorum at 11%, Buddy Roemer at 3% and Rick Perry at 1%. A new survey by WMUR/UNH reports an even great for Romney, with 41%, followed by Paul at 17%, Huntsman at 11%, Santorum at 11%, Gingrich at 8%, Rick Perry at 1% and Buddy Roemer at 1%. But a Suffolk University tracking poll, released over the weekend, shows Mitt Romney's support dipping for the fourth day in a row. By Sunday, for example, Romney dropped another 4 points overnight to 35%, followed by Ron Paul at 20%, Jon Hunstman at 11%, Newt Gingrich at 9%, Rick Santorum at 8% and Rick Perry at 1%. Another 15% remain undecided.

With some polls showing Huntsman gaining momentum (but Santorum loosing steam), the race could end with a closer result than a simple Romney walk. New Hampshire is known for its surprises: Hillary Clinton won the primary in 2008, although Barack Obama came into election day with a lead in virtually every poll. While PollTrack still believes Romney--thus moving him considerably closer to the nomination--will win the New Hampshire Primary, the depth and intensity of his win remains uncertain.

Another poll in New Hampshire, this one by Suffolk University, reports that Mitt Romney holds a huge lead, now at 41%, in the GOP presidential primary, followed by Ron Paul at 18%, Rick Santorum at 8%, Newt Gingrich at 7%, Jon Huntsman at 7% and Rick Perry at 1%.

A number of polls in recent days report a commanding lead for Mitt Romney in the New Hampshire. A new poll by Suffolk tracking, for example, shows Romney leading with 43%, followed by Ron Paul at 17%, Jon Huntsman at 9% and Newt Gingrich at 8%. This poll is consistent with several others released over the past week. Given the extreme closeness of Romney's victory in Iowa yesterday, PollTrack will be watching New Hampshire very closely over the next six days for signs of weakening in Romney's position.

With the implosion of yet another GOP candidate (Newt Gingrich) and the ascendance of Mitt Romney to the top of the pack in Iowa, the question now on the table is whether Romney will win the nomination and wrap it up early. With several polls reporting a significant lead for Romney in New Hampshire--and now leading in Iowa (A Rasmussen survey in Iowa shows Romney leading Ron Paul, 25% to 20%)--PollTrack thinks that this could be a possibility, though Gingrich continues to lead in other early (and more conservative) voting states, such as South Carolina and (marginally) Florida. Stay tuned.

(The Rasmussen Poll also shows Newt Gingrich at 17%, Rick Perry at 10%, Rick Santorum at 10%, Michele Bachmann at 6% and Jon Huntsman at 4%.)

Despite polls showing Mitt Romney way ahead in New Hampshire, PollTrack's analysis of the early voting states suggests a less clear path to victory for Romney. As one pollster notes in New Hampshire (WMUR/UNH): "Just 16% of . . . likely primary voters say they know who they are voting for. So, while Romney might like his commanding lead right now, there is no telling where 84% of voters will go in the six remaining weeks before the primary." Indeed, the former Massachusetts governor now trails Newt Gingrich in most of the early voting states (or, as in Florida, is locked in a virtual tie with Gingrich). Romney's inability to seal the deal with Republican voters is telling.

Too moderate for the far right wing of the party--especially for Tea Party supporters--and too opportunistic in the eyes of even more moderate Republican voters, Romney appears to be unable to win the trust of a majority of GOP voters (or even a clear plurality). While it is now likely that the GOP primary season will drag on well into the early summer of 2012, it is PollTrack's opinion that Romney is no longer the clear frontrunner. Indeed, with major support now breaking Gingrich's way--and nearly all national surveys of GOP voters showing him in the lead--Gingrich may be breaking away from the pack. And as under-performing ultra-conservative candidates such as Cain, Bachmann, and Santorum begin dropping out of the race, it is far more likely that their votes will go to Gingrich and not Romney. Stay tuned.

A survey by WMUR/UNH in New Hampshire reports that Mitt Romney continues to lead the GOP presidential race by a large margin: 42%. His closest rival, Newt Gingrich is at 15%, while Ron Paul comes in at 12% and Jon Huntsman at 8%.

A new poll by Suffolk University/7NEWS in New Hampshire reports that Mitt Romney is way ahead of the GOP field with 41%, followed by Ron Paul and Newt Gingrich at 14%. In the only state where Jon Huntsman shows any strength, the former Utah governor comes in at 9%; Herman receives 8%, Rick Santorum 3%, Rick Perry 2%, and Michele Bachmann 1%.

A poll by Magellan Strategies in New Hampshire reports that Mitt Romney now barely leads Newt Gingrich among GOP presidential primary voters, 29% to 27%. In the survey, Ron Paul comes in at 16%, Herman Cain at 10%, Jon Huntsman at 8%, Michele Bachmann at 2%, Rick Perry at 2% and Rick Santorum at 1%. In Iowa, a new Rasmussen survey reports that Newt Gingrich holds a considerable lead among likely GOP caucus-goers with 32%, followed by former Mitt Romney at 19%, Herman Cain at 13%, Ron Paul at 10%, Rick Perry at 6% and Michele Bachmann at 6%.

A survey by Bloomberg in New Hampshire reports that Mitt Romney holds a huge lead over his GOP presidential rivals with 40%, followed by Ron Paul at 17% and Newt Gingrich at 10%. All the other candidates are below 10%.

According to a series of surveys by GS Strategy, Mitt Romney and Herman Cain maintain leads in early GOP voting states. In Iowa, Cain leads Romney, 25% to 22%; the other candidates are at single digits. In New Hampshire, Romney maintains a huge lead, with 43% to Cain's 18%. In South Carolina, Cain just edges Romney in a statistical tie, 28% to 27%.

For those of you, like PollTrack, interesting in following voter sentiment on the ground, here is the voting schedule of the first five states in the Republican nominating process:

January 3: Iowa

January 10: New Hampshire

January 21: South Carolina

January 31: Florida

February 4: Nevada

A new multi-state survey by CNN/Time/Opinion Research reports that Mitt Romney remains the clear front-runner in New Hampshire, leads in Florida, and is statistically tied for the top spot with Herman Cain in Iowa and South Carolina.

Iowa: Romney leads Cain 24 to 21%, followed by Paul at 12%, Perry at 10%, Gingrich at 10%, and Bachmann at 6%.

New Hampshire: Romney leads Cain 40 to 13%, followed by Paul at 12%, Huntsman at 6%, Gingrich at 5%, and Perry at 4%.

South Carolina: Romney leads Cain 25 to 23%, followed by Paul at 12%, Perry at 11%, Gingrich at 8%, and Bachmann at 4%,

Florida: Romney leads Cain 30 to 18%, followed Gingrich at 9%, Perry at 9%, Paul at 6% and Bachmann at 4%.

A survey by InsiderAdvantage/Newsmax in New Hampshire reports that Mitt Romney holds a solid lead over Herman Cain in the GOP presidential race, 39% to 24%; Ron Paul come in third at 11%, Michele Bachmann at 5%, Newt Gingrich at 5%, Jon Huntsman at 5% and Rick Perry at 2%.

A poll by WMUR9 Granite State reports that Mitt Romney has surged ahead of the Republican presidential field in New Hampshire. Romney leads with 42%. Herman Cain, in second place, doesn't even come close at 13%. Ron Paul is at 11%, Rudy Giuliani at 8%, Jon Huntsman at 8%, Rick Perry at 4% and Newt Gingrich at 4%.

A survey by Magellan poll in New Hampshire reports that Mitt Romney continues to lead the GOP presidential primary pack with 36%, followed by Rick Perry at 18%, Rep. Ron Paul at 14% and Rep. Michele Bachmann at 10%. All other candidates are at 3% or less.

A just released Public Policy Polling survey in New Hampshire reports that Mitt Romney continues to lead the GOP presidential primary with 25%. The news is that the second placed candidate, Michele Bachmann, has surged in recent weeks, and now stands at 18%. Sarah Palin comes in at 11%, Ron Paul at 9%, Rick Perry and Herman Cain at 7%, John Huntsman and Tim Pawlenty at 6% and Newt Gingrich at 4%. According to PPP: "Bachmann's surge in New Hampshire is being built on the back of the Tea Party. Among voters identifying themselves as members of that movement she's leading the way at 25% with Palin and Romney tying for second at 16%, and Cain also placing in double digits at 11%."

A new WMUR Granite State Poll in New Hampshire reports that Mitt Romney maintains a huge lead in the 2012 GOP presidential primary: He now stands in the survey at 35%, followed by Michele Bachmann at 12%, Ron Paul at 7%, Rudy Giuliani at 7%, Rick Perry at 4%, Tim Pawlenty and Sarah Palin at 3%, and Jon Huntsman and Herman Cain at 2%.

In yet another problem for the incumbent president, The Fix examines the most recent state-by-state unemployment numbers and reports "that in every one of the 14 swing states heading into 2012 -- Colorado, Florida, Indiana, Iowa, Michigan, Minnesota, New Mexico, New Hampshire, Nevada, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia and Wisconsin -- the unemployment rate has risen since October 2008."

How does the GOP field for the 2012 presidential contest look in New Hampshire, the first state to hold a primary next year? A new Magellan Strategies poll in New Hampshire reports that Mitt Romney holds a huge lead with 39%, followed by Sarah Palin at 16% and Mike Huckabee at 10%. How significant are these numbers? As Dave Weigel notes, Romney is "the only 2012 candidate with any geographic claim to New Hampshire" so "anything less than a monster win makes him look a lot like Muskie."

Right now, president Obama would win the Democratic primary handily against hypothetical Democratic challengers. A according to a new Magellan Strategies poll in New Hampshire, the President Obama is well positioned in the unlikely event he's challenged in a Democratic presidential primary.  He beats Hillary Clinton by 31 points--59% to 28%, and bests Howard Dean by 68 points--78% to 10%.

On election morning, it is clear to PollTrack that the fundamentals of the race decidedly favor Obama. He has wracked up significant margins in early voting according to nearly all polls, though in a few states, preeminently Florida, its unclear who has the edge and by how much. He maintains "Safe" leads in virtually all of the Kerry-blue states from 2004, and robust leads in a few Bush states as well (Iowa and New Mexico). Additionally, he holds a modest, but statistically significant, advantage in another two: Colorado and, amazingly in a state that hasn't gone Republican since 1964, Virginia. McCain, on the other hand, maintains 127 "Safe" electoral voters, and 32 "Leaners," one comfortably (West Virginia), and three by a very slim margin, helped by red-leaning statewide demographics (Montana, North Dakota, and Georgia). The Republican, unlike Obama, leads in NO Kerry-blue states (though his campaign insists it has a chance in PA) and is struggling in several states won by Bush: Indiana, North Carolina, and Missouri, all three virtually tied and thus remain too close to call. And the two candidates have drawn the mother of all battleground states, Florida and Ohio, to a tie. Indeed, of the 12 true swing states in 2004, Obama now leads in all but these two states. If Obama simply maintains most of the states he now takes on PollTrack's map, he wins. McCain, on the other hand, would have to run the Bush-red deck now on the map, including all red-safe and red-leaning states, the five that are now too close to call, AND pick off a Kerry-blue state or two from Obama. In the end, turnout means everything in this--and all--elections. And the "wave" matters, too. If momentum remains sharply with Obama--e.g., voters are comfortable with him and angry about what they see as Republican mismanagement of the economy--the Democrat will win an electoral landslide. If McCain's newfound "momentum" turns out to be real and more than moderate--indeed, in most statewide surveys, voters who have already cast their ballots favor Obama by a significant margin, those who plan to vote today, lean to McCain, to varying degrees--the race could end closer. In this regard, Obama has another structural advantage in many states: with voting going on since early October in some places--a time when the Democrat was riding high in the polls--he comes into today's contest with a real edge. Yet, if turnout is unprecedented then the make-up of the electorate could determine the outcome of close states. This explains the near impossibility of predicting the outcome of states are now virtually or literally tied--MO, IN, FL, OH, and NC--simply from present-day polling, historical voting models, and demographics. Will this show of voter enthusiasm merely underscore Obama's longstanding popularity and the intensity of his supporters, or might Republicans, Evangelicals, and center-right white working class voters come home to McCain in larger than expected numbers?

The so-called "Bradley Factor" in contests with black candidates--in which white voters tell pollsters they are undecided or voting for the African-American candidate out of embarrassment or fear of being judged as racist, only to vote for the white challenger in the privacy of the voting booth--is the greatest variable in this presidential cycle. Since no African-American has ever served as the presidential nominee of a major party, there are no national models on which to gauge and understand the Bradley factor. As of this morning, there are enough very close battleground states--at this stage containing large, even unprecedented blocs of undecided and persuadable voters--to make this effect meaningful (if it were to occur). In Ohio, where a number of polls out this morning report only a +2% lead for Obama, any sharp movement of remaining wavering or undecided voters could throw the state to McCain. Ditto other races that are exceedingly close as of this afternoon: Florida, Missouri, North Carolina, and Indiana (though Obama could lose all five states and still win). The good news for Obama is that his lead in nearly all Kerry-blue and some swing states is by sufficient margins (and over the 50% mark) to offset any potential McCain advantage vis-a-vis the Bradley effect. BUT, there are signs out there that the ghost of Bradley is lurking, exemplified by Pennsylvania Governor Ed Rendell's publicly stated fear that PA is not a done deal for Obama (or Democratic Congressman Murtha's impolitic musings on the "racism" of western Pennsylvanians). Even though Obama holds a healthy aggregate lead in PA of +7.6% (a lead that is increasing as of this morning)--requiring at least an 8% swing to reverse the Democrat's numbers--a swing of a far greater magnitude, and with a within a much more liberal voting base, took place in the New Hampshire Democratic primary this January, when Obama entered Election Day with a +8.3% lead, but lost to Hillary Clinton by +2.6%. That a number of battleground states have drawn very close within the past 48 hours may, in fact, suggest that undecided voters (who now are predominantly center-right, older, and demographically disinclined to vote for Obama) may already be breaking for the Republican. If a substantial shift were to occur towards McCain, another question arises: will Obama's enormous advantage in early voting (and new voter registration) offset any of McCain's gains in the now surprisingly large bloc of voters who now call themselves undecided or still persuadable? And has the dramatic tightening in a few key swing states in recent days made the Bradley Effect more of a factor?

With Obama's numbers consistently strong in New Hampshire--and his polling average at +12.4%, PollTrack moves the state from "Leaning" to "Safe" Democrat.

One significant, though unreported, structural advantage for Obama on the electoral map: of the 255 EVs he now leads "safely" (according to PollTrack's averages), he reaches or exceeds the 50% mark in all. In other words, he not only maintains a +10% advantage in these states, but rises above the 50% threshold, thus making it all the more difficult for McCain to catch up, especially considering that third party candidates are drawing at least a few percentage points in many of these states. Additionally in all of the remaining 51 EVs that now "lean" to Obama on Today's Map, but not by a "Safe" margin--Ohio, New Hampshire, Virginia, Colorado, and New Mexico--he still rises above the 50% mark. And in one state, still "Too Close To Call" on Today's Map, Nevada, he has just inched up to the 50% mark. So the Democrat now reaches or exceeds the magic threshold in 270 EVs. McCain by contrast is "Safe" in 127 EVs, reaching or exceeding the 50% mark in all. He leans in an additional four states, but reaches the 50% threshold only in two, West Virginia and Georgia. Incredibly, in his home state of Arizona (as well as Montana) he fails to hit 50%. In the remaining states that are now rated "Too Close To Call"--Florida, North Carolina, Missouri, Indiana, and North Dakota--Obama holds a very slight lead in all but IN, but does not hit the 50% mark in any. Nevertheless, even with polls reporting that McCain is narrowing the gap in some battleground states, these numbers add up to a map that fundamentally favors Obama.

While most tracking polls showing the race narrowing over the past few days (to within a few points according to IBD/TIPP, GWU/Battleground, Galup (traditional) over the past few days and Rasmussen this morning), the fundamentals of the election still markedly favor Barack Obama. The biggest plus for the Democrat: he now holds "Safe" level leads in states with a total of 255 electoral votes, 259 EVs with New Hampshire, which is trending "Safe." With this potential margin in the electoral college, Obama will need to pick off only one or two more states which now "Lean" to him: a combination of North Carolina, Colorado, Nevada, Virginia, or New Mexico, for example, or even just Ohio or Florida. The only hope for McCain rests on one odd factor in national polling: the large bloc of voters who say they are still persuadable. Rasmussen reports this morning, for example, that among "likely voters" Obama leads by +3%, 50% to 47%. Among voters who are absolutely certain of the decision, the Democrat leads by the same margin, but at 46% to 43%. In the latter numbers, Obama drops well below the 50% mark; just as significant, the pool of decided voters drops to 89%, leaving another 11% who are "leaning," wavering, not sure, undecided, or voting for a third party candidate. Yet, even if McCain were to make up the difference by election day--with a large swing of persuadable voters in his direction--he would still have a major structural disadvantage in the electoral college. If Obama now wins all the states that are now called "Safe Democrat" on Today's Map (a likely scenario if history is any guide), he would only need a few more states to win. With a +6% average in Ohio, +7 in Colorado, +7 in New Mexico, +6.5% in Virginia, +3 in Florida he has a much better shot at squeaking by in enough swing states to cross the finish line. Still if McCain's gains were dramatic--and other factors, such as the "Bradley Effect," which could be skewing polling results towards Obama--were operative, anything is possible. BUT, the opposite outcome may be even more likely: with "Leaners" now skewing slightly to Obama, he could benefit from a swing of persuadables in his direction, movement that could result in an electoral mandate in which true-red states, such as North Carolina, Virginia, and Indiana, and red-leaning battlegrounds, such as Missouri, Florida, and Ohio fall into the Democratic column. Stay tuned.

With Obama showing surprising strength in PT's poll average for New Hampshire (he's now up +11.4%), PollTrack moves the state from "Leaning" to "Safe Democrat" on Tomorrow's Map.

The political world is buzzing with another rumor--just up on ABC News--about McCain's on-the-ground operation: that his campaign is giving up on New Hampshire and Wisconsin. If this is true--and so far, such reports have not been entirely accurate--then the Republican playing field has narrowed once again, and perilously for McCain. Both states were won by John Kerry in 2004. Obama now leads in both, in the latter by more than +10% according to PollTrack's average. If McCain withdraws from the two states, he is also effectively withdrawing to the very limited boundaries of the 2004 political map. He now must win nearly all of Bush's states to beat Obama--a difficult proposition since the Democrat leads by a healthy margin in several, including Colorado, New Mexico, and Iowa, and by a slight advantage in a few others, including North Carolina, Nevada, and Missouri.

With one tracking poll this morning showing the race virtually tied (GWU/Battleground: 48% to 47%, +1 DEM) and another showing the Democrat with a healthy lead of +8%--and the latter, Reuters/C-SPAN/Zogby, leaping from a virtual tie on Monday--it looks like things are a bit fluid right now. What might account for these differences? For one variations in likely voter models and other statistical markers and methods. For another: persuadable voters. As PollTrack has been reporting, certain voters account for about 85% of the electorate right now, according to most polls. A small number more are undecided or are voting for third party candidates. The lion's share of those remaining, the roughly 12% of the electorate who are "persuadable," say they could change their minds. This effect is registering in some of battleground state polls as well. Here is the Concord Monitor/Research 2000 analysis of its most recent polling in New Hampshire: "Obama has solidified his support, according to the poll, with 45 percent of those polled proclaiming themselves "firm" in supporting the Illinois senator. McCain, an Arizona senator, garnered the firm backing of 40 percent of those polled. Still, 15 percent of those polled said they could change their minds, leaving the race still fluid with two weeks to go before Election Day." Indeed, the day before the New Hampshire Democratic primary, Obama had an average lead of +8.0%. What no media outlet noticed (except PollTrack, though you'll have to take our word on this): the large number of persuadable voters still in play less than 24 hours before the vote. And, of course, Hillary Clinton went on to win the state. Will persuadable voters produce an election day surprise? Or will they continue to break for Obama (leaners now favor him by a small margin), thus assuring him a solid win? Let's take a look at the persuadable numbers a few days before the election.

In a sign that republicans may be worried about Obama's inroads into Republican leaning states--such as Virginia, Florida, North Carolina, Indiana, and Missouri (where several new polls indicate a modest Democratic lead)--the McCain campaign appears to be giving up on the idea of competing hard in most, if not all, of the states that John Kerry won in 2004. In other words, the Republicans are now plotting a very limited path to victory, one that includes most of the 2004 red states and a handful of blue states not now in play, such as New Hampshire and Pennsylvania: "Confronting an increasingly bleak electoral map," the campaign of Sen. John McCain is "searching for a 'narrow-victory scenario' and [will] focus in the final weeks on a dwindling number of states, using mailings, telephone calls and television advertisements to try to tear away support from Sen. Barack Obama." Barring a dramatic turnaround in McCain's numbers--one that would narrow the national race down to a point or two--the Republican's electoral deficit at this point in the campaign will be very difficult to overcome.

Hotline/FD tracking, this morning, reports that although the national numbers have drawn a bit closer, with Obama up +6%, the Democrat continues to hold a collective double-digit lead in the battleground states--51% to 38%--defined in the survey as Colorado, Michigan, New Hampshire, New Mexico, Nevada, Florida, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia, and Wisconsin.  The finding may be misleading, however. For one, these states together represent an appreciably smaller sample than the national poll as a whole, thus are subject to greater statistical variations. Also: these numbers do not reflect differences in the intensity of state to state support for the candidates. In other words, while the Democrat, according to most polls, holds a substantial lead in some swing states (PA, NH, MI, WI), the race appears to be considerably tighter in others (OH, FL, VA, NV, CO). The enormous upside for Obama: he is leading (in some cases by significant margins) in all of the states won by John Kerry in 2004, while McCain is struggling in a number of Bush states.

Obama's PollTrack statewide average in New Hampshire now stands at +8%--49.8% to 41.8%. Even more impressive: his lead jumps to more than 10% on average in the three latest surveys from the Granite State. Thus PollTrack moves the state from "Too Close To Call" to "Leaning Democrat" on Tomorrow's Map.

New Hampshire is one of three states that flipped in the past two election cycles (Iowa and New Mexico are the others). It went for Bush in 2000. Kerry (from neighboring Massachusetts) in 2004. Two new polls out today, suggest that the state may be trending blue. Rasmussen gives Obama at 10% lead. Saint Anslem College/SRBI reports a 12% lead for the Democrat. PollTrack moves the state from "Too Close To Call" to "Leaning Democrat" on Today's Map. For now, the state remains gray on Tomorrow's and Election Day maps, pending further polling.

With the lead in New Hampshire see-sawing in recent polling, PollTrack moves the state from WIN-Obama to "Too Close To Call" on Election Day Map Today.

With statewide polls in New Hampshire showing the race tightening--and more ominously for the Democrats, incumbent Republican John Sununu taking the lead in the US Senate race from Democratic challenger Jeanne Shaheen--PollTrack moves the state from "Leaning Democrat" to "Too Close To Call" on Tomorrow's Map.

What PollTrack giveth, it sometimes must take away (on the same day). A University of New Hampshire poll released this hour suggests that Obama is not doing as well in the state as several recent polls suggest. Indeed, the survey gives McCain a modest 2% lead--47% to 45%. This number suggests a broader pattern and problem for the Obama campaign--connecting with white working class voters, even in a state like New Hampshire where the economy and political environment have recently favored Democrats. PollTrack now calls the state "Too Close To Call."

With the latest statewide survey suggesting improvement for Obama--and a political environment in the state that may favor the Democrats this year--PollTrack moves New Hampshire from "Too Close To Call" to "Leaning Democrat" on Today's Map.

PollTrack has received a number of E-mails from Democrats concerned about Obama's chances in November. The short answer: no candidate is decisively ahead and the race is fairly even both in national support and electoral votes. It is clear that McCain came out of his convention stronger than Obama. It is also true that the momentum is now with the Republican. But the race is close enough that either candidate can win. By contrast, President Bush came out of his convention in 2004 with a sizable bounce that he maintained throughout much of September. Strong debate performances by Sen. John Kerry allowed the Democrat to narrow the gap considerably, though not entirely close it.

PollTrack suspects that the debates will be an important factor in this election. Since 1960 in presidential races in which debates were held (1960, 1976, 1980, 1984, 1988, 1992, 1996, 2000, and 2004), the debates were usually decisive. Indeed in contested cycles, where an incumbent did not sail to victory--races that include all but 1984 and 1996--the debates were the decisive factor in most instances. Here are a few debate bloopers and  successes that really made a difference: Nixon's listless appearance and five-o'clock shadow in 1960; Ford's gaffe about Poland in 1976; Dukakis' cold and dispassionate response to a question about whether his liberal views about crime and punishment would be shaken if his own wife were raped; Reagan's ability to convince a skeptical nation that he was not an extremist in 1980; and George H. W. Bush caught on camera glancing at his watch while his opponent, Bill Clinton, was addressing dire economic issues in 1992.

In the short term: watch to see if McCain's bounce translates into improvement in the statewide contest for electoral votes. Right now, the answer is a mixed bag: McCain appears to be benefiting form a sizable bounce in Southern states and smaller but marked improvement in number of western, plains and Rocky Mountain states. Obama's numbers remain very strong in New England (save New Hampshire). Numbers for the mid-west, rust belt, and mid-Atlantic states are unclear at this point, though Obama appears to be loosing a little ground in Ohio, Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin. New York and California seem solidly behind the Democrat.

A new CNN/Time poll shows a marked improvement for Obama in New Hampshire--bringing the state more into line with the rest of New England, the region with some of the Democrat's strongest numbers. PollTrack continues to call the state "Too Close To Call" on Today's Map. But it appears to be trending Obama's way. Thus, New Hampshire moves to "Leaning Democrat" on Tomorrow's Map Today.

Another indication of the closeness of the race: A new National Public Radio survey of likely voters in 19 key "battleground" states--states that have been competitive in recent cycles or have swung between parties, such as Ohio, New Mexico, Iowa, and New Hampshire--finds Obama with just a one point lead over McCain: 46% to 45%.