Posted Jul 08, 2011 at 9:39 AM by Maurice Berger
While many in the GOP are urging NJ Governor Chris Christie to run for the 2012 nomination for president, he remains relatively unpopular in his home state. A Bloomberg New Jersey poll reports that 51% of New Jersey
residents say they wouldn't support Gov. Chris Christie for a
second term, "disapproving of his choices on a range of policy
and personal issues, from killing a commuter tunnel to using a
state-police helicopter to attend his son's baseball game."
Tagged: Election 2012, US Governor RACE CHART, New Jersey, Chris Christie
Posted Apr 15, 2011 at 12:40 AM by Maurice Berger
Despite the enthusiasm of many Republicans for his policy's of Governor of New Jersey, Chris
Christie, who has been mentioned as a possible Republican presidential
candidate in 2012, remains mostly unknown to most Americans. A new Gallup survey notes that "overall, 27% of Americans view him favorably and 22%
unfavorably. Among Republicans, his ratings are 41% favorable and 12%
unfavorable."
Tagged: 2011, Election 2012, Republican nomination, New Jersey
Posted Nov 05, 2009 at 8:26 AM by Maurice Berger
Another problem for the Democrats in Tuesday's election: parts of the Obama coalition--responsible for his easy victory last year--did not hold. As MSNBC notes: "Obama’s Base Is No Longer Fired Up And Ready To Go . . . According to the exit polls, just 10% of the voters in Virginia were under the age of 30, down from 21% last year. What’s more, McDonnell won 18-29 year olds, 54%-44%. Also in Virginia yesterday, African Americans made up 16% of the vote, down from 20% last year. And then there’s this: 51% of yesterday’s voters in Virginia said they voted for McCain, while just 43% said they voted for Obama. Folks, Obama won this state last year by a nearly 53%-46% margin."
Tagged: 2009, President Barack Obama, Younger Voters, Voter Enthusiasm, African-American voters, Virginia, New Jersey
Posted Apr 27, 2009 at 9:21 AM by Maurice Berger
Although the president and many members of congress have come out strongly against same sex marriage, the idea appears to be catching on in many states. Take New Jersey, for example, where a new poll finds that by a 49 - 43 percent margin, state "voters support a law that
would allow same-sex couples to marry . . . And voters support 63 - 30 percent the existing law establishing
civil unions for same-sex couples. A proposed same-sex marriage law wins 64 -
29 percent support from Democrats and 50 - 41 percent from independent voters,
but Republicans oppose it 67 - 26 percent, the independent Quinnipiac
(KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University poll finds. Men oppose it 48 - 44 percent while
women back same-sex marriage 53 - 39 percent. Black voters oppose same-sex
marriage 54 - 38 percent, while white voters support it 50 - 42 percent. Voters
who attend religious services once a week oppose same-sex marriage 65 - 28
percent while voters who attend services less frequently support it 61 - 30
percent."
Tagged: 2009, New Jersey, gay rights, same sex marriage
Posted Mar 31, 2009 at 1:30 PM by Maurice Berger
The esteemed polytical anaylast Charlie Cook--one of the very best in the business--cautions political observers to be cautious about the results of today special election in New York's 20th Congressional District to fill the seat vacated by Kirsten Gillibrand: “Assuming that the margin in this upstate contest to fill the seat of
newly-appointed Democratic Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand is three or four
points or less, my advice is to respond ‘that’s nice,’ then yawn, and
walk away… What is more important is if there is a uniform direction to
several odd-year elections. If, for example, Republicans were to win
tonight and knock off Gov. Jon Corzine in New Jersey in November, and
pick up the open governor seat in Virginia, then it is fair to say that
they will have exorcised the demons of 2006 and 2008 . . . If
Democrats hold NY-20 as well as New Jersey and Virginia, they can enter
2010 knowing that even if the wind isn’t at their backs, there also
isn’t a headwind.” PollTrack agrees with Cook. Is is doubtful that the outcome of NY-20 will serve as a bellwether. Rather it could hint at an impending problem for one of the national parties, at best.
Tagged: Democratic Party, President Barack Obama, Republican Party, US House RACE CHART, US Governor RACE CHART, New York, Virginia, New Jersey
Posted Nov 02, 2008 at 1:31 PM by Maurice Berger
This afternoon, four of five tracking polls out today report that the race has tightening over the past 24 hours (except for the erratic Zobgy survey). Today's PollTrack daily tracking poll average indicates that Obama's lead is down -1.3% from yesterday to 49.8% to 44.8%, for an aggregate advantage of +5% DEM. One poll, TIPP, the most accurate in 2004, reports a dramatic tightening of the race (Obama by +2%, 47% to 45%): "The race tightened again Sunday as independents who'd been leaning to
Obama shifted to McCain to leave that key group a toss-up. McCain also
pulled even in the Midwest, moved back into the lead with men, padded
his gains among Protestants and Catholics, and is favored for the first
time by high school graduates." One other thing to consider, with Obama's national lead down to 5%--and his lead in high-population Kerry-blue states such as NY, IL, CA, MA, and NJ ballooning to 15-25% in most--the shrinking national total might also suggest that the races in more highly competitive battleground states may be drawing closer. Stay tuned.
Tagged: Barack Obama, John McCain, battleground states, Daily Tracking Poll, California, New Jersey, New York, Massachusetts
Posted Oct 23, 2008 at 9:18 AM by Maurice Berger
With Obama's polling averages and dramatic improvement in his advantage in Minnesota, Maine, and New Jersey, PollTrack moves the three states from "Leaning" to "Safe Democrat" on Tomorrow's Map.
Tagged: Maine, Michigan, New Jersey
Posted Oct 09, 2008 at 9:07 AM by Maurice Berger
With Obama's New Jersey PollTrack average now at +10%--in a state that has trended decidedly Democratic in recent cyles--PollTrack moves the state from "Leaning Democrat" to "Safe democrat" on Today's Map.
Tagged: New Jersey
Posted Sep 17, 2008 at 9:17 AM by Maurice Berger
What's going in New Jersey? Two new polls--Quinnipiac and Marist--show the race drawing close, with Obama holding a modest 3% lead: 48% to 45%. Two additional polls report Obama with a lead virtually unchanged from a month ago, at +8-9% (Monmouth and Research 2000). Three important points: [1] there is little disagreement in Obama's numbers across the four polls--he touches or just grazes the 50% mark in each. [2] McCain's numbers have improved across the surveys from a month ago (due to white undecided voters breaking his away according to several polls) [3] The narrowing of the race actually fits an historical pattern in New Jersey: Republican presidential candidates often see their numbers inch up in September/October only to see this improvement evaporate by Election Day. With no real shift in Obama's base numbers in the state, PollTrack continues to call New Jersey "Leaning Democrat" on Today's and Tomorrow's maps.
Tagged: New Jersey, Barack Obama, John McCain, 50% mark
Posted Sep 15, 2008 at 9:35 AM by Maurice Berger
Although the Republican base is fired up and McCain claims a significant lead among independents, Democratic party identification and voter enthusiasm is also way up (Rasmussen gives the Democrats a 5% advantage). Thus, neither candidate is walking away with the election at this point. Even a cursory glance at the electoral map suggests conditions far similar to the razor close count of 2000 and not 1988 or 1992, where one party gained lasting momentum and was able to pick off enough swing states to capture a solid electoral majority. If Obama were poised to do this, he would need to win a bunch of states that have gone Republican in the last two cycles but were also won by Bill Clinton in 1992 and/or 1996: Tennessee, Kentucky, West Virginia, Montana, Georgia, Florida. All these states are now moving solidly into the Republican column. Similarly, McCain is behind in New Jersey, Wisconsin, and Michigan (though by smaller margins than Obama in TN, KY, MN, GA, WV), states he would need for a big win.
Unless dramatic on-the-ground events (perhaps spurred by this weekend's Wall Street meltdown) or a striking under-performance or major league blooper in the debates throws off one of the candidates, it's conceivable that the election will remain close to the very end. Then it will be up to voter enthusiasm and turnout to propel one or the other over the victory line.
Tagged: Florida, Georgia, Barack Obama, John McCain, Kentucky, Tennessee, West Virginia, New Jersey, Wisconsin, Michigan, Montana
Posted Sep 12, 2008 at 7:45 PM by Maurice Berger
A Marist survey released this evening suggests that the race in New Jersey may be drawing closer. A month ago, Quinnipiac reported a 10% lead for the Democrat. Marist now shows a 3% difference, 48% to 45%, among likely voters. An averaging of the latest polls in the state gives Obama a 4.5% advantage. PollTrack continues to call the state "Leaning Democrat."
Tagged: New Jersey
