Presidential Race Maps Writing on the Wall

FINAL Predictions for NJ snd CA Democratic Primary

Posted Jun 07, 2016 at 10:45 AM by Maurice Berger

PollTrack predicts wins for Hillary Clinton in today's New Jersey and California Democratic primaries. 

Predictions For New Jersey and California Democratic Primaries

Posted May 20, 2016 at 11:23 PM by Maurice Berger

PollTrack predicts wins for Hillary Clinton in both the New Jersey and California Democratic primaries scheduled for 7 June. Predictions will be revised as we move closer to the primaries. 

Majority Question Bridgate Internal Investigation

Posted Apr 10, 2014 at 8:55 AM by Maurice Berger

A new poll by Monmouth University/Asbury Park Press n New Jersey reports that 52% believe that the newly released internal probe into GOP Gov. Chris Christie's administration and the Bridgegate scandal was intended to "to help Chris Christie's reputation." 

Majority of Americans Skeptical Of Christie

Posted Mar 20, 2014 at 11:12 PM by Maurice Berger

A national poll by Bloomberg reports that 63% of Americans say they don't believe Republican New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie's "claims that he knew nothing of a plan by his top aides to create a politically motivated traffic jam."

NJ US Senate: Booker Holding Steady

Posted Mar 11, 2014 at 7:40 AM by Maurice Berger

A new poll by Monmouth University/Asbury Park Press in New Jersey reports that Democratic Sen. Cory Booker has solid approval ratings:
"Currently, 47% of New Jersey voters approve of the job Booker is doing as U.S. Senator compared to just 20% who disapprove. Another 32% have no opinion." Furthermore, in a hypothetical match up in his fall bid for a full six-year term, Booker leads Murray Sabrin (R), 58% to 25%.

Christie Falling Behind Clinton In Potential 2016 Matchup

Posted Jan 20, 2014 at 9:02 AM by Maurice Berger

While a new poll by NBC News/Maristl reports that nearly seven in 10 Americans say the George Washington Bridge scandal engulfing New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie's administration hasn't changed their opinion of him, he has lost considerable ground to Hillary Clinton in an early hypothetical presidential match up. He now trails Clinton by a -13%, 50% to 37% among nationwide voters.

Christie Approval Remains Strong

Posted Jan 14, 2014 at 9:42 AM by Maurice Berger

A new poll by Monmouth University/Asbury Park Press reports that Gov. Chris Christie's approval rating is 59%, with just 32% disapproving. This despite the scandal surrounding his administration. 



NJ Governor: Christie Headedover For Big Win

Posted Nov 05, 2013 at 10:32 AM by Maurice Berger

Any poll you lack at on election morning suggests a big victory for incumbent GOP NJ Governor Chris Christie. Here's PollTrack's roundup of the latest polls:

Monmouth: Republican Chris Christie over Democrat Barbara Buono, 57% to 37%.

Fairleigh Dickinson: 59% to 40%.

Rutgers/Eagleton: 66% to 30%.

Quinnipiac: 61% to 33%

NJ Governor: Christie With Huge Lead

Posted Oct 16, 2013 at 10:13 AM by Maurice Berger

A new poll by Quinnipiac in New Jersey reports that incumbent Republican Gov. Chris Christie holds a huge lead over his Democratic challenger Barbara Buono, 62% to 33%.


NJ US Senate: Polls Show Significant Lead

Posted Oct 15, 2013 at 10:08 AM by Maurice Berger


Polls continue to report a significant lead for Democrat Cory Booker in tomorrow's special US Senate election in New Jersey. A just released Quinnipiac poll finds Booker leading Republican Steve Lonegan in tomorrow's U.S. Senate race by +14%, 54% to 40%.

NJ US Senate: Is Booker Way Ahead Or His His Lead Narrowing

Posted Oct 14, 2013 at 7:38 PM by Maurice Berger

Contradictory polling in this Wednesday's special election in New Jersey. According to a poll by Monmouth, Democrat Cory Booker's once huge lead over Republican Steve Lonegan in the U.S. Senate race has dropped to +10%--52% to 42%. But a just released poll by Rutgers reports a commanding Booker lead of +22%--58% to 36%

US Senate: Booker Holds Comfortable Lead in NJ

Posted Oct 10, 2013 at 7:41 AM by Maurice Berger

A new poll by Quinnipiac in New Jersey reports that Democrat Cory Booker leads Republican Steve Lonegan by a comfortable +12% margin in the U.S. Senate race, 53% to 41%.

NJ Special Election: Booker Holds Big Lead

Posted Sep 30, 2013 at 9:07 AM by Maurice Berger

A new poll by Kean University in New Jersey continues to report a lopsided race for U.S. Senate: Democrat Cory Booker leads Republican Steve Lonegan in the special election by a wide margin, 52% to 33%.

NJ Special Election: How Big Is Booker's Lead?

Posted Sep 24, 2013 at 8:04 AM by Maurice Berger

A new survey by Stockton Polling Institute in New Jersey reports that Democrat Cory Booker holds a commanding +26% lead over Republican Steve Lonegan in the U.S. Senate race, 58% to 32%. Meanwhile, a new poll by Quinnipiac poll tells a somewhat different story. It has Booker leading Lonegan by +12% among likely voters, 53% to 41%.

NJ U.S. Senate: Booker Headed For Big Primary Win

Posted Aug 08, 2013 at 9:16 AM by Maurice Berger

According to a new Quinnipiac poll in New Jersey, Newark Mayor Democrat Cory Booker heads into next week's Democratic Senate primary with a huge margin over his challengers. He leads with 54% of likely primary voters, followed by Rep. Frank Pallone at 17%, Rep. Rush Holt at 15%, and Sheila Oliver at 5%. In the general election match-up, Booker crushes likely GOP nominee Steve Lonegan, 54% to 29%, among registered voters.

NJ Gov: Christie Way Ahead

Posted Jun 19, 2013 at 7:19 AM by Maurice Berger

A new poll by Stockton College in New Jersey reports that GOP Gov. Chris Christie is way ahead of Democratic challenger Barbara Buono in his race for re-election, 64% to 24%.

NJ US Senate: Booker Crushs His Democratic Opponents

Posted Jun 14, 2013 at 2:00 AM by Maurice Berger

A new poll by Monmouth in New Jersey reports that Cory Booker holds a commanding lead among potential voters in the August Democratic primary for US Senate. Booker crushes his opponents at 63%, compared to 10% for Rush Holt, 8% for Frank Pallone, and 6% for Sheila Oliver.

Christie Crushes Democratic Challenger

Posted Apr 01, 2013 at 8:06 AM by Maurice Berger

The idea of the inevitability of NJ GOP governor Chris Christie's reelection is underscored by a new Harper Polling survey. In the poll, Christie crushes his Democratic challenger Barbara Buono, 58% to 28%.

Booker Democratic Candidate To Beat In 2014 NJ US Senate Primary

Posted Feb 20, 2013 at 10:25 PM by Maurice Berger

A new poll by Monmouth University/Asbury Park Press in New Jersey reports that Cory Booker would have handily beat Sen. Frank Lautenberg in a possible Democratic Senate primary in 2014, 40% to 25%, numbers that offer one reason why Lautenberg chose bot to run for reelection.

Christie Even More Popular With Democrats Nationally

Posted Jan 10, 2013 at 9:13 AM by Maurice Berger

A just released Public Policy Polling survey reports that Republican New Jersey Gov. Chris Chrisitie is more popular with Democrats nationally than he is with Republicans. His overall favorability is 51% to 23%.  With Democrats, he holds +29 advantage: 52% to 23%. With GOP voters, his advantage is +21: 48% to 27%. And he is most popular with independent voters with a staggering +34 at advantage: 52% to 18%.

Would Booker Make A Stronger Candidate for US Senate In NJ?

Posted Dec 07, 2012 at 8:35 AM by Maurice Berger

A new survey by Public Policy Polling in New Jersey reports that if Democratic US Sen. Frank Lautenberg should retire -- or even if he seeks reelection -- Newark Mayor Cory Booker has a clear shot at the seat. By a 59% to 22% margin Democrats say they would prefer Booker over Lautenberg in 2014. And if the seat opens up by virtue of Lautenberg's retirement, Booker emerges as the strong favorite: 48% prefer Booker as their candidate compared to 17% for Rep. Rob Andrews and 13% for Rep. Frank Pallone (both have expressed interest in the race).

Christie Holds Commanding Reelection Lead

Posted Dec 06, 2012 at 9:28 AM by Maurice Berger

A new survey by  Public Policy Polling in New Jersey reports that Republican Gov. Chris Christie holds a commanding lead in this year's reelection effort. Christie's approval rate is 67% to 25% and he would beat hypothetical Democratic challenger, Newark Mayor Cory Booker in a gubernatorial match up by double-digits, 50% to 36%.

PollTrack 2013 Election Coverage: New Jersey Governor

Posted Nov 20, 2012 at 9:39 AM by Maurice Berger

One hot election that PollTrack will be analyzing next year: The New Jersey gubernatorial race. The race may be both lively and consequential, pitting two of the state's most popular politicians against each other, incumbent GOP governor, Chris Christie and Democratic Newark Mayor Corey Booker. Here a teaser from the New Republic: "That perhaps the two most compelling politicians in America hail from the same state is dramatic enough. Now consider that soon they may be running against each other. . . . Visions of a Booker-Christie match-up make political junkies weak at the knees... There are no nationwide campaigns next year, and just two gubernatorial seats are up for grabs, so this race--hypothetical though it remains--would have America's attention. Money would flow: Both are beloved by Wall Street and, having campaigned on other candidates' behalf, are loaded with IOUs from political fundraisers around the country. Coverage would be nonstop: Both are extraordinarily talented at handling the microphone and delivering social media-optimized sound bites. And the stakes would be high: Both have designs on the presidency, and are aware of the benefits of handing the other a premature political death." PollTrack adds that the race may also serve as an early moratorium on President Obama's second term much as this year's other big race: Governor of Virginia.

Obama With Huge Lead In New Jersey

Posted Jun 15, 2012 at 9:14 AM by Maurice Berger

A survey in New Jersey just released by Rutgers-Eagleton reports that President Obama maintains a commanding +23% lead over Mitt Romney, 56% to 33%.

Chris Christie Less Popular In Home State

Posted Apr 12, 2012 at 9:05 AM by Maurice Berger

Despite the earlier urging of some GOP insiders, Chris Cristie declined to enter the Republican nomination race for president. A new poll, Rutgers-Eagleton reports that while the New Jersey governor's favorability rating show little change, 46% to 42%, voters are more likely to describe him as "stubborn, arrogant and self-centered than they were six months ago." Over the past six months, those who describe him as "arrogant" increased by 15%. The terms "self-centered" and "bully" each gained 11%, "stubborn" increased by 12% and "angry" by 11%.

Large Majority Support Same-Sex Marriage In NJ

Posted Mar 02, 2012 at 2:19 AM by Maurice Berger

Despite Gov. Christie's veto of a bill that would have made same-sex marriage legal in New Jersey, a new poll by Quinnipiac shows support in the state for gay marriage has climbed to an all-time high, 57% to 37%, a whopping +20% margin.

NJ Gov. Chris Christie Unpopular At Home

Posted Jul 08, 2011 at 1:39 AM by Maurice Berger

While many in the GOP are urging NJ Governor Chris Christie to run for the 2012 nomination for president, he remains relatively unpopular in his home state. A Bloomberg New Jersey poll reports that 51% of New Jersey residents say they wouldn't support Gov. Chris Christie for a second term, "disapproving of his choices on a range of policy and personal issues, from killing a commuter tunnel to using a state-police helicopter to attend his son's baseball game."

NJ Gov. Christie Remains Unknown Quantity

Posted Apr 14, 2011 at 4:40 PM by Maurice Berger

Despite the enthusiasm of many Republicans for his policy's of Governor of New Jersey, Chris Christie, who has been mentioned as a possible Republican presidential candidate in 2012, remains mostly unknown to most Americans. A new Gallup survey notes that "overall, 27% of Americans view him favorably and 22% unfavorably. Among Republicans, his ratings are 41% favorable and 12% unfavorable."

Election 2009: Did Obama's Base Hold?

Posted Nov 05, 2009 at 12:26 AM by Maurice Berger

Another problem for the Democrats in Tuesday's election: parts of the Obama coalition--responsible for his easy victory last year--did not hold. As MSNBC notes: "Obama’s Base Is No Longer Fired Up And Ready To Go . . . According to the exit polls, just 10% of the voters in Virginia were under the age of 30, down from 21% last year. What’s more, McDonnell won 18-29 year olds, 54%-44%. Also in Virginia yesterday, African Americans made up 16% of the vote, down from 20% last year. And then there’s this: 51% of yesterday’s voters in Virginia said they voted for McCain, while just 43% said they voted for Obama. Folks, Obama won this state last year by a nearly 53%-46% margin."

New Jersey Voters Support Same Sex Marriage

Posted Apr 27, 2009 at 1:21 AM by Maurice Berger

Although the president and many members of congress have come out strongly against same sex marriage, the idea appears to be catching on in many states. Take New Jersey, for example, where a new poll finds that by a 49 - 43 percent margin, state "voters support a law that would allow same-sex couples to marry . . . And voters support 63 - 30 percent the existing law establishing civil unions for same-sex couples.  A proposed same-sex marriage law wins 64 - 29 percent support from Democrats and 50 - 41 percent from independent voters, but Republicans oppose it 67 - 26 percent, the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University poll finds. Men oppose it 48 - 44 percent while women back same-sex marriage 53 - 39 percent. Black voters oppose same-sex marriage 54 - 38 percent, while white voters support it 50 - 42 percent. Voters who attend religious services once a week oppose same-sex marriage 65 - 28 percent while voters who attend services less frequently support it 61 - 30 percent."

Some Perspective On The National Implications Of NY-20

Posted Mar 31, 2009 at 5:30 AM by Maurice Berger

The esteemed polytical anaylast Charlie Cook--one of the very best in the business--cautions political observers to be cautious about the results of today special election in New York's 20th Congressional District to fill the seat vacated by Kirsten Gillibrand: “Assuming that the margin in this upstate contest to fill the seat of newly-appointed Democratic Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand is three or four points or less, my advice is to respond ‘that’s nice,’ then yawn, and walk away… What is more important is if there is a uniform direction to several odd-year elections. If, for example, Republicans were to win tonight and knock off Gov. Jon Corzine in New Jersey in November, and pick up the open governor seat in Virginia, then it is fair to say that they will have exorcised the demons of 2006 and 2008 . . . If Democrats hold NY-20 as well as New Jersey and Virginia, they can enter 2010 knowing that even if the wind isn’t at their backs, there also isn’t a headwind.” PollTrack agrees with Cook. Is is doubtful that the outcome of NY-20 will serve as a bellwether. Rather it could hint at an impending problem for one of the national parties, at best.

Daily Tracking Poll Average: National Average Tightens Overnight

Posted Nov 02, 2008 at 5:31 AM by Maurice Berger

This afternoon, four of five tracking polls out today report that the race has tightening over the past 24 hours (except for the erratic Zobgy survey). Today's PollTrack daily tracking poll average indicates that Obama's lead is down -1.3% from yesterday to 49.8% to 44.8%, for an aggregate advantage of +5% DEM. One poll, TIPP, the most accurate in 2004, reports a dramatic tightening of the race (Obama by +2%, 47% to 45%): "The race tightened again Sunday as independents who'd been leaning to Obama shifted to McCain to leave that key group a toss-up. McCain also pulled even in the Midwest, moved back into the lead with men, padded his gains among Protestants and Catholics, and is favored for the first time by high school graduates." One other thing to consider, with Obama's national lead down to 5%--and his lead in high-population Kerry-blue states such as NY, IL, CA, MA, and NJ ballooning to 15-25% in most--the shrinking national total might also suggest that the races in more highly competitive battleground states may be drawing closer. Stay tuned.

Tomorrow's Map: ME, MN, NJ All Move To "Safe Democrat"

Posted Oct 23, 2008 at 1:18 AM by Maurice Berger

With Obama's polling averages and dramatic improvement in his advantage in Minnesota, Maine, and New Jersey, PollTrack moves the three states from "Leaning" to "Safe Democrat" on Tomorrow's Map.

Today's Map: New Jersey Moves To "Safe Democrat"

Posted Oct 09, 2008 at 1:07 AM by Maurice Berger

With Obama's New Jersey PollTrack average now at +10%--in a state that has trended decidedly Democratic in recent cyles--PollTrack moves the state from "Leaning Democrat" to "Safe democrat" on Today's Map.

The New Jersey Question

Posted Sep 17, 2008 at 1:17 AM by Maurice Berger

What's going in New Jersey? Two new polls--Quinnipiac and Marist--show the race drawing close, with Obama holding a modest 3% lead: 48% to 45%. Two additional polls report Obama with a lead virtually unchanged from a month ago, at +8-9% (Monmouth and Research 2000). Three important points: [1] there is little disagreement in Obama's numbers across the four polls--he touches or just grazes the 50% mark in each. [2]  McCain's numbers have improved across the surveys from a month ago (due to white undecided voters breaking his away according to several polls)  [3] The narrowing of the race actually fits an historical pattern in New Jersey: Republican presidential candidates often see their numbers inch up in September/October only to see this improvement evaporate by Election Day. With no real shift in Obama's base numbers in the state, PollTrack continues to call New Jersey "Leaning Democrat" on Today's and Tomorrow's maps.

Can Either Candidate Break The Tie?

Posted Sep 15, 2008 at 1:35 AM by Maurice Berger

Although the Republican base is fired up and McCain claims a  significant lead among independents, Democratic party identification and voter enthusiasm is also way up (Rasmussen gives the Democrats a 5% advantage). Thus, neither candidate is walking away with the election at this point. Even a cursory glance at the electoral map suggests conditions far similar to the razor close count of 2000 and not 1988 or 1992, where one party gained lasting momentum and was able to pick off enough swing states to capture a solid electoral majority. If Obama were poised to do this, he would need to win a bunch of states that have gone Republican in the last two cycles but were also won by Bill Clinton in 1992 and/or 1996: Tennessee, Kentucky, West Virginia, Montana, Georgia, Florida. All these states are now moving solidly into the Republican column. Similarly, McCain is behind in New Jersey, Wisconsin, and Michigan (though by smaller margins than Obama in TN, KY, MN, GA, WV), states he would need for a big win.

Unless dramatic on-the-ground events (perhaps spurred by this weekend's Wall Street meltdown) or a striking under-performance or major league blooper in the debates throws off one of the candidates, it's conceivable that the election will remain close to the very end. Then it will be up to voter enthusiasm and turnout to propel one or the other over the victory line.

Is New Jersey Close?

Posted Sep 12, 2008 at 11:45 AM by Maurice Berger

A Marist survey released this evening suggests that the race in New Jersey may be drawing closer. A month ago, Quinnipiac reported a 10% lead for the Democrat. Marist now shows a 3% difference, 48% to 45%, among likely voters. An averaging of the latest polls in the state gives Obama a 4.5% advantage. PollTrack continues to call the state "Leaning Democrat."