Posted Jan 16, 2014 at 8:42 AM by Maurice Berger
A survey by Gallup reports that 42% of Americans identify as political
independents in 2013. This number is the highest in 25 years.
Republican identification dropped to 25%, the lowest over the same period. Democratic identification, at 31%, remains unchanged from the last four years.
Posted Jan 11, 2013 at 9:39 AM by Maurice Berger
According to a new poll by Gallup, "an average of 47% of Americans identified as Democrats or said
they were independents who leaned Democratic in 2012, compared with 42%
who identified as or leaned Republican. That re-establishes a Democratic
edge in party affiliation after the two parties were essentially tied
in 2010 and 2011."
Posted Nov 10, 2011 at 1:05 AM by Maurice Berger
In what bodes as a potential problem for Democrats overall in next year's federal election, a new survey by Gallup reports that Republican voters are more likely to express enthusiasm about voting in next year's presidential election. On
the national level, 56% of registered GOP voters and 48% of
Democratic voters are extremely or very enthusiastic about voting. In 12
key swing states, the Republican advantage is even greater: 59% to 48%.
Posted Jul 25, 2011 at 2:20 AM by Maurice Berger
In what could spell serious trouble for the President's reelection effort next year, A new Pew Research survey reports that the GOP has made significant gains among white voters in the three years since Barack Obama was elected president. In 2008, the Republicans could claim a 2% lead among whites--46% to 44%. Today, that lead has expanded to a whopping +13% lead today, 52% to 39%. To put these numbers in perspective, Obama won the 2008 race with only 43% of the white vote. Any significant diminution of that number would greatly hamper his reelection effort.
Posted Jun 16, 2011 at 1:29 AM by Maurice Berger
In a good sign for Democrats, party affiliation has grown in recent months comparable to the GOP. A new Gallup poll finds 45% of Americans identified as Democrats last month as compared to 39% who identified as Republicans.
Posted Jul 27, 2010 at 1:57 AM by Maurice Berger
According to Gallup, "more states are politically competitive this year than was the case
in 2009, as fewer Americans nationwide identify with the Democratic
Party. Vermont -- along with the District of Columbia -- is the most
Democratic state in the U.S. in 2010 so far, while Utah, Wyoming, and
Idaho are the most Republican." Here is Gallup's chart of the most Democratic and Republican states in the union:
Posted May 05, 2010 at 1:45 AM by Maurice Berger
Although U.S. registered voters are closely divided in their 2010
congressional election preferences, a new Gallup survey reports that "those who say they are 'very
enthusiastic about voting' this year show a strong preference for the
Republican Party . . . Gallup has consistently found Republicans expressing a higher level of enthusiasm than Democrats about voting in this
year's election campaign. Theoretically, those who are enthusiastic
about voting would be more likely to turn out to vote than those who are
not enthusiastic. This fall, Gallup will be better able to measure the
potential impact of turnout on the vote by applying its 'likely voter'
model to the generic ballot results. That model takes into account a
more complete set of factors related to voting, including interest in
the election, intention to vote, and past voting behavior."
Posted Apr 28, 2010 at 1:30 AM by Maurice Berger
A recently released Gallup
poll reports that Democrats now have the smallest advantage in political
party affiliation in five years. During the first quarter of 2010, 46%
of Americans identified as Democrats or leaned Democratic, while 45%
identified as or leaned Republican.
Posted Apr 07, 2010 at 12:23 AM by Maurice Berger
Today/Gallup poll reports that Americans are loosing faith with politicians--attitudes "are reminiscent of
those in 1994 and 2006, when control of Congress switched from one party
to the other." 28% pf respondents say most members of Congress deserve re-election , a record low. Both major parties have exceptionally low favorability ratings: 41% for
Democrats and 42% for Republicans. The President is not exempt from this negativity: 26% saying he deserves "a great deal" of
blame for the
nation's economic troubles, double the percentage in July.
Posted Jan 22, 2010 at 1:35 AM by Maurice Berger
Republican pollster Frank Luntz fires a warning shot to Democrats in his analysis of the president's declining popularity. While his overall opinion of--and some of his ideas about--the seriousness of the dilemma now facing Democrats may be colored by ideology, two of his points about looming red flags are backed up by the results of a number of non-partisan public opinion surveys:
• According to Gallup, Obama has suffered the greatest fall in
approval of any elected president since the company started ongoing
tracking during the Eisenhower administration. Obama came into office
with the approval of two out of every three voters (67 percent) but
ended his first year with just half the electorate (50 percent)
offering a positive evaluation of his performance. Only the unelected
Gerald Ford fared worse in the court of public opinion.
the Republican brand has barely moved since its electoral disasters of
2006 and 2008 and remains unpopular, Democratic popularity has
collapsed as well. Most surveys now have the GOP even or even slightly
ahead in the generic congressional ballot, and Americans now see the
Republicans to be as good if not better in handling the economy.
What Luntz fails to point out, however, is that the Republican brand is suffering as well: A new Public Policy Polling poll reports that only 19% of voters nationally are happy with the direction
of the Republican Party, compared to 56% who are unhappy with it. Even more surprising--GOP voters are not particularly happy with the direction of their own party: just 35% support the direction of the party; 38% say
they are unhappy.
Posted Jan 13, 2010 at 1:41 AM by Maurice Berger
According to the Gallup-Healthways Well-Being Index, "throughout 2009, the percentages of Republicans and Democrats who rated
their present and future lives highly enough to be classified as
"thriving" were virtually equal . . . This trend stands in stark contrast
to 2008, when Republicans were more likely to be thriving than were
Democrats. Gallup measures life evaluation using the Cantril Self-Anchoring
Striving Scale, which asks survey respondents to evaluate their present
and future lives on a "ladder" scale."
Gallup continues: "When news of the financial services meltdown first broke in the waning
days of the Bush administration in September 2008, 57% of Republicans
and 38% of Democrats were classified as thriving. In November, the
month of the presidential election, Republicans' life evaluations
dropped much more sharply than Democrats' or independents'. Then in
January 2009, the month Obama took office, life ratings among Democrats
and independents rose more sharply than among Republicans. By February
2009, the thriving percentages among Republicans (44%) and Democrats
(45%) were virtually identical."
Posted Jan 08, 2010 at 2:20 AM by Maurice Berger
PollTrack suggests taking a look at this informative New York Times round table on the upcoming midterm elections. While certain political signs point to possibly significant Democratic loses (presidential job approval below 50%, shrinking Democratic partisan identification, a GOP lead on the Congressional Generic ballot), it is still too early to tell. An improved economy--and an uptick in job creation--could well benefit the Democrats (ten months is a relatively long time in the politics of the Internet age). Or continued stagnation may well add seats to the GOP column. Will shrinking Democratic turnout--relative to last year's wave of enthusiasm for candidate Obama--ultimately hurt the party in power or will Democrats, still weary from 8-years of George W. Bush, turn out in sufficient numbers to keep things stable? Click here for the complete NYT round table.
Posted Dec 23, 2009 at 1:32 AM by Maurice Berger
Are Democrats in trouble due to lack of enthusiasm? CQ Politics reports that "a national survey conducted jointly by a prominent pollster from
each of the major parties underscored what has become a theme in the
year before the midterm elections. Republicans and independent voters
who now are leaning Republican are more fired up to vote in 2010 than
Democratic voters . . . The poll of 1,000 Americans deemed likely to vote, taken Dec. 6-9,
found that 77 percent of both Republican and independent respondents
said they are extremely likely to vote in the 2010 elections. Among
Democratic respondents, 64 percent said they are extremely likely to
vote. This is worrisome for Democrats, as it is a flip of voters'
political attitudes in the 2006 and 2008 elections, which saw them win
and grow majorities in both chambers of Congress and capture the White
House. The Democratic Party prospered over the past two election cycles
because Republicans and Republican-leaning independents -- disappointed
with President George W. Bush and the congressional GOP -- were less
fired up to vote than Democrats seeking change."
Posted Dec 22, 2009 at 1:12 AM by Maurice Berger
A Pew Research Center survey offers a breakdown of Obama's approval status by race, age, gender, and political affiliation. At years end, it offers a snapshop of where the President stands with various groups. Fully 88% of non-Hispanic African Americans approve of Obama’s job
performance, compared with 39% of non-Hispanic whites. Obama continues
to draw broad support from his Democratic base: comparable percentages
of liberal Democrats (85%) and conservative and moderate Democrats
(82%) approve of the way he is handling his job. By contrast,
Republicans overwhelmingly disapprove (19% approve vs. 73% disapprove);
among conservative Republicans just 12% approve of Obama’s job
performance while 82% disapprove.
Posted Dec 10, 2009 at 1:07 AM by Maurice Berger
According to Rasmussen, "the number of Americans identifying themselves as Democrats fell by
nearly two percentage points in November. Added to declines earlier in
the year, the number of Democrats in the nation has fallen by five
percentage points during 2009. In November, 36.0% of American adults said they were Democrats. That’s down from 37.8% a month ago and the lowest number of Democrats since December 2005 . . . The number of Republicans inched up by just over a point in November to
33.1%. That’s within the narrow range that Republicans have experienced
throughout 2009 - from a low of 31.9% to a high of 33.6%."
Posted Nov 04, 2009 at 3:00 AM by Maurice Berger
President Obama's approval rating on election day was at 50%. This number suggests a problem for the Democrats, especially to the extend that it reflects a drop off in independent voter support. Indeed, it was the dramatic decline in the support of unaffiliated and independent voters that gave Republicans a decided advantage in Virginia and New Jersey. The situation with indepdendents was dire: Republican Christie won independent voters in New Jersey by 30 points (60%-30%); Obama won them 51%-47% last year. McDonnell in Virginia won
indies by 33 points (66%-33%); Obama held a slight 49%-48% last year.With a nation closely divided between the two mainstream parties, independents can now tip the balance in states and localities where party registration is relatively even. In New Jersey, the message is even more dire for the Democrats: with Democrats enjoying a significant advantage in party identification, Jon Corzine still lost. Does this prefigure Democratic loses in the 2010 midterms? Hard to tell this early. But PollTrack will be watching independent voters--as well as the President's approval numbers--very closely in the coming months.
Posted Oct 01, 2009 at 2:29 AM by Maurice Berger
A new analysis by Gallup suggests that the Democratic Party may be loosing a bit of steam, as the gap in party identification has narrowed considerably in recent months: " In the third quarter of this year, 48% of Americans identified
politically as Democrats or said they were independent but leaned to
the Democratic Party. At the same time, 42% identified as Republicans
or as independents who leaned Republican. That six-point spread in
leaned party affiliation is the smallest Gallup has measured since 2005." Here's is Gallup's tracking chart:
These results are based on an average of five Gallup and USA Today/Gallup
polls conducted in the third quarter of 2009, encompassing interviews
with more than 5,000 U.S. adults. Gallup's Daily tracking survey --
established in 2008 -- has shown a similar narrowing of the party support gap in recent months.
Posted Sep 04, 2009 at 2:03 AM by Maurice Berger
In another possibly negative sign for the Obama administration, Gallup reports that "in August, an average of 45% of Americans identified as Democrats or leaned to the Democratic Party, while 40% identified as Republicans or leaned to the Republican Party. This 5-point advantage represents a decided narrowing of the gap between the parties from the 17-point Democratic advantage in January." Here is Gallup's chart:
Posted Aug 11, 2009 at 1:29 AM by Maurice Berger
A fascinating state-by-state study by Gallup suggests that American is growing increasingly Democratic: "An analysis of Gallup Poll Daily tracking data from the first six
months of 2009 finds Massachusetts to be the most Democratic state in
the nation, along with the District of Columbia. Utah and Wyoming are
the most Republican states, as they were in 2008. Only four states show
a sizeable Republican advantage in party identification, the same
number as in 2008. That compares to 29 states plus the District of
Columbia with sizeable Democratic advantages, also unchanged from last
year." Here's Gallup's listing of the Bluest and Reddest states in the union:
Posted Jul 01, 2009 at 1:35 AM by Maurice Berger
A Gallup poll reveals that when it comes to perceptions about the economy and the current economic crisis, sharp partisan differences prevail: "Republicans and Democrats view economic issues facing the country
today from substantially different perspectives. Republicans are most
likely to be worried about the increasing federal deficit, increasing
federal income taxes, and problems state governments have in funding
their budgets, while Democrats are most worried about the rising
unemployment rate, Americans without health care insurance, and the
increasing cost of health care. These results underscore the political tensions that have arisen as the
Obama administration and Congress wrestle with how to fix the country's
economic problems, while at the same time dealing with the longer-term
impact of those efforts. Taken as a whole, Republicans are more
concerned than Democrats about the impact of increased federal and
state spending, and government regulation of business, while Democrats
are more concerned about the societal problems that the increased
spending and regulation are designed to address."
Here's a sampling of the top priorities by party affiliation:
Posted Jun 11, 2009 at 1:50 AM by Maurice Berger
According to Gallup, the GOP is increasingly the party of white Americans: The survey reported that "more than 6 in 10 Republicans today are white conservatives, while most
of the rest are whites with other ideological leanings; only 11% of
Republicans are Hispanics, or are blacks or members of other races. By
contrast, only 12% of Democrats are white conservatives, while about
half are white moderates or liberals and a third are nonwhite. Gallup's analysis: 'Does the Republican Party in essence "stick to
the knitting" and cling to its core conservative principles? Or should
the Republicans make an effort to expand their base -- among whites who
are moderate or less religious, and/or the various nonwhite groups who
to this point are largely ignoring the Republican Party in favor of the
Democrats? The decision the party makes in response to this question
could be pivotal in helping determine its future.'"
Posted Jun 02, 2009 at 2:49 AM by Maurice Berger
Consistent with early surveys, a Gallup Poll confirms that US military veterans trend Republican in their political orientation: "This Republican skew is at least minimally evident across all age groups,
ranging from a 15-point difference in the percentage Republican between veterans
and nonveterans in the 25-29 age group, to a 2-point difference in the 85+
group. . . For the entire adult population, 34% of veterans and those currently on
active military service are Republican, compared to 26% of those who are not
veterans, while 29% of veterans identify themselves as Democrats, compared to
38% of those who are not veterans. (Thirty-three percent of veterans are
independents, compared to 29% of nonveterans.) . . . The current analysis shows that regardless of the underlying patterns of
political identification that pertain at each age group, veterans (or those
currently in the military) of all ages are more Republican and less Democratic
than those who are not veterans."
Posted Mar 10, 2009 at 2:06 AM by Maurice Berger
Just about half of the nation's voters--49%--now believe politics in Washington
will be more partisan over the next year. This number represents a 9% gain since early February and a 15% jump since early January: The latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey found that just "32% expect more cooperation between the two sides over the coming year.
That’s down from 48% in January."
Rasmussen also reports a much smaller shift in perceptions of President Obama's governing style. 39% believe he is "governing on a
bipartisan basis, down from 42% a month ago. The number who believe he
is governing as a partisan Democrat has gone up four points to 43%. But more voters think that members of Congress from both
political parties are more partisan than Obama. 50% of
voters say congressional Republicans are acting in a partisan manner. 60% say that congressional Democrats are behaving as
Posted Feb 27, 2009 at 1:04 AM by Maurice Berger
White President Obama continues to enjoy high approval on his handling of the economy and other problems facing the nation, the Republicans fare very poorly. A new ABC News/Washington Post Poll Reports that the Democratic Party leads the Republicans by 56-30 percent in trust to
handle the country's main problems. "That has slightly improved from
56-23 percent in December, as congressional Republicans found a unified
voice in opposition to the stimulus. But the December number was the
Republicans' worst in ABC/Post polls since 1982; they still have far to
climb."Additionally, the Democrats hold the edge in partisan affiliation: 36% in the poll identified themselves
as Democrats, just 24% as Republicans. On average in 2003, by
contrast, the parties were at parity, 31 percent apiece."
Posted Feb 04, 2009 at 2:07 AM by Maurice Berger
According to Gallup, an average of 36% of Americans identified themselves as Democrats and 28% as
Republicans in 2008. That eight-point advantage is the largest for the
Democratic Party since Gallup began regularly conducting its polls by telephone
in 1988. Gallup notes: "The year-by-year trend shows that Democrats have gained ground against
Republicans in each of the last five years, going from a deficit of two points
in 2003 to the most recent eight-point advantage. Additionally, the 36% of Americans who identified as Democrats last year
matches the high point in Democratic identification since 1988, when it was also
36%. But since fewer Americans identified as Republicans last year (28%) than in
1988 (31%), the Democratic advantage was larger in 2008."
Posted Jan 30, 2009 at 1:29 AM by Maurice Berger
A new survey by the Gallup organization reports a national electoral map that has grown markedly Democratic over the past few years: "An analysis of Gallup Poll Daily tracking data from 2008 finds Rhode
Island, Massachusetts, and Hawaii to be the most Democratic states in
the nation, along with the District of Columbia. Utah and Wyoming are
the most Republican states . . . What is immediately clear from the map is that residents of the
United States were very Democratic in their political orientation last
year. . . All told, 29 states and the District of Columbia had Democratic
party affiliation advantages of 10 points or greater last year. This
includes all of the states in the Northeast, and all but Indiana in the
Great Lakes region. There are even several Southern states in this
grouping, including Arkansas, North Carolina, and Kentucky. An additional six states had Democratic advantages ranging between 5 and 9 points. In contrast, only five states had solid or leaning Republican
orientations in 2008, with Utah, Wyoming, Idaho, and Alaska in the
former group, and Nebraska in the latter."
Posted Dec 02, 2008 at 1:44 AM by Maurice Berger
A new Rasumssen survey reports that partisan identification is up for both parties since the election, but the Democrats continue to have a significant advantage: "In November, 41.4% of Americans considered themselves to be
Democrats, 33.8% said they were Republicans, and 24.7% were not affiliated with
either major political party. Both political parties registered slight gains since October
when 40.3% of Americans were Democrats and 33.3% were Republican."