Presidential Race Maps Writing on the Wall

How Did PollTrack Do?

Posted Nov 07, 2012 at 2:53 PM by Maurice Berger

How did PollTrack do, in terms of correctly predicting the outcome of Election 2012?

Quite well.

As for our Presidential Maps, we correctly predicted the outcome of all of the 50 races decided as of this morning. We await word in Florida, the one state that PollTrack noted--on Monday evening--was very difficult to call.

As for our US Senate Race Chart, PollTrack predicted 32 out of 33 races.

Final National Polling Average: Obama Up +1.4%--48.9% to 47.5%

Posted Nov 06, 2012 at 9:05 AM by Maurice Berger

PollTrack's final national polling average for the 2012 presidential race shows President Obama with a lead of +1.4%, a marked improvement from his poll average of just seven days ago. Indeed, in the last week, the vast majority of national surveys reported a slight but clear momentum for the president, particularly in the days following Hurricane Sandy. In our final average, Obama is at 48.9% and his GOP challenger Mitt Romney is at 47.5%.

Stay tuned for PollTrack Political Director, Maurice Berger's Live Blogging (on the Presidential Maps page, for the presidential race; on Writing on the Wall for US Senate races) starting today at 5:00 PM EST.

Final National Polling Average Tomorrow Morning

Posted Nov 05, 2012 at 10:34 PM by Maurice Berger

Due to one late tracking poll (by International Business Daily-TIPP), PollTrack's final national polling average will be issued tomorrow morning. The US Senate Race Chart and the Presidential Maps will be finalized by midnight tonight EST.  

 

National Polling Average: Obama Up +1.3%

Posted Nov 05, 2012 at 5:37 PM by Maurice Berger

PollTrack's aggregate of the national polls in the presidential race as of 5:30 PM EST this evening continues to show a close race, but with the president leading by more than a percentage point. Obama now stands at 48.8% and Mitt Romney at 47.5%--for a lead for Obama of +1.3%.

National Polling Average: Obama Up +1.4%

Posted Nov 05, 2012 at 3:44 PM by Maurice Berger

PollTrack's aggregate of the national polls in the presidential race as of 3:30 PM EST this afternoon shows the president just grazing the 49.0% mark, a number that would tend to confirm his structural lead in the swing states. Obama now stands at 48.9% and Mitt Romney at 47.5%--for a lead for Obama of +1.4%.

National Polling Average: Obama Up +1.4%

Posted Nov 05, 2012 at 1:27 PM by Maurice Berger

PollTrack's aggregate of the national polls in the presidential race as of 1:30 PM EST this afternoon shows a +0.2% increase for the president from this morning. Obama now stands at 48.6% and Mitt Romney at 47.2%--for a lead for Obama of +1.4%.

National Polling Average: Obama Up +1.2%

Posted Nov 05, 2012 at 9:34 AM by Maurice Berger

PollTrack's aggregate of the national polls in the presidential race as of 9:30 AM EST this morning shows the race tightening slightly. Obama now stands at 48.5% and Mitt Romney at 47.3%--for a lead for Obama of +1.2%.

National Polling Average: Obama Up +1.8%

Posted Nov 04, 2012 at 6:35 PM by Maurice Berger

PollTrack's aggregate of the national polls in the presidential race as of 6:30 PM EST this evening continues to show  momentum for President Obama. Indeed, in the freshest round of polls--those released over the past day or so--Obama leads in most, is tied in a few. Romney no longer leads in any national poll released over the past 36-hours. Just as significant, the president is at 49% or 50% in many of these polls--UPI, Rand, PPP, Pew, ABC/Washington Post, YouGov, JZ-Analytics/Washington Times--a threshold that suggest a durable national lead. Obama now stands at 48.4% and Mitt Romney at 46.6%--for a lead for Obama of +1.8%.

National Polling Average: Obama Up +1.5%

Posted Nov 04, 2012 at 10:16 AM by Maurice Berger

PollTrack's aggregate of the national polls in the presidential race as of 10:00 AM EST this morning continues to show modest momentum for President Obama. Obama now stands at 48.0% and Mitt Romney at 46.5%--for a lead for Obama of +1.5%.

Today's Map: Virginia Moves from Too-Close-To-Call to Leaning Democratic

Posted Nov 03, 2012 at 5:15 PM by Maurice Berger

PollTrack has moved Virginia on Today's Map from Too-Close-To-Call to Leaning Democratic, for an Obama Electoral College lead of 303 EVS to Romney's 206. Florida remains undecided on Today's Map at 29 EVs.

National Polling Average: Obama Up +1.3%

Posted Nov 03, 2012 at 5:14 PM by Maurice Berger

PollTrack's aggregate of the national polls in the presidential race as of 6:00 PM EDT this evening continues to show modest  momentum for President Obama, who leads by more than one-percent. Obama now stands at 47.9% and Mitt Romney at 46.6%--for a lead for Obama of +1.3%.

 

National Polling Average: Obama Up +1.2%

Posted Nov 03, 2012 at 8:55 AM by Maurice Berger

PollTrack's aggregate of the national polls in the presidential race as of 9:30 AM EDT this morning continues to show slight momentum for President Obama, who leads by more than one-percent. Obama now stands at 47.8% and Mitt Romney at 46.6%--for a lead for Obama of +1.2%.

National Polling Average: Obama Holding Steady At +1.1%

Posted Nov 02, 2012 at 4:15 PM by Maurice Berger

PollTrack's aggregate of the national polls in the presidential race as of 5:00 PM EDT this afternoon shows a stable race, with President Obama holding on to his lead, now just above one-percent. Obama now stands at 47.7% and Mitt Romney at 46.6%--for a lead for Obama of +1.1%.

National Polling Average: Obama Up +1.1%

Posted Nov 02, 2012 at 9:07 AM by Maurice Berger

PollTrack's aggregate of the national polls in the presidential race as of 10:00 AM EDT this morning shows a stable race, with President Obama up by more than one-percent, suggesting slight momentum for him. Obama now stands at 47.7% and Mitt Romney at 46.6%--for a lead for Obama of +1.1%.

National Polling Average: Obama's Lead Increases To +1.0%

Posted Nov 01, 2012 at 4:35 PM by Maurice Berger

This afternoon's PollTrack national Polling Average as of this evening at 5:30 PM EDT suggests a bit of forward momentum for President Obama. Even including the large lead for Romney in the now suspended Gallup Poll--we continue to factor in tracking polls issued over the past ten days--Obama now has a full +1.0% lead over his GOP challenger Mitt Romney--47.7% to 46.7%. Stay tuned to see if this is a durable lead or just a day of good polling for the president.

National Average: Obama-47.7% to Romney-47.3%

Posted Oct 31, 2012 at 3:21 PM by Maurice Berger

PollTrack's aggregate of the national polls in the presidential race as of 4:00 PM EDT this afternoon shows the race little changed. Once again, a word of caution: several trackers have suspended operations due to Hurricane Sandy, thus making it more difficult to access the current state of the race. President Obama now stands at 47.7% and Mitt Romney at 47.3%--for a lead for Obama of +0.4%.

National Polling Average: Obama-47.8% and Romney-47.4%

Posted Oct 31, 2012 at 9:23 AM by Maurice Berger

PollTrack's aggregate of the national polls in the presidential race as of 10:00 AM EDT this morning continues to show a very close race. A continued word of caution: several trackers have suspended operations due to Hurricane Sandy. Thus, we may need to wait a few days for a more accurate picture of the current state of the race. President Obama now stands at 47.8% and Mitt Romney at 47.4%--for an Obama lead of +0.4%.

Today's Map: FL Moves From Leaning Republican to TCTC

Posted Oct 31, 2012 at 8:50 AM by Maurice Berger

With half of this weeks polls in Florida showing President Obama slightly head--and the PollTrack average now a virtual tie--the state moves on Today's Map from Leaning Republican to To-Close-To-Call. PollTrack notes that Mitt Romney's electoral math just got a lot harder. A close race in states like North Carolina and Virginia, and with Obama holding firm in Ohio, it appears that in the Electoral College, at least, the president's path to victory has grown modestly, but clearly, stronger. Stay tuned.

National Polling Average: Obama-47.9% and Romney-47.6%

Posted Oct 30, 2012 at 1:59 PM by Maurice Berger

PollTrack's aggregate of the national polls in the presidential race as of 3:00 PM EDT this afternoon suggests that the race remains very close. A continued word of caution: several trackers have suspended operations due to Hurricane Sandy. Thus, we may need to wait a few days for a more accurate picture of the current state of the race. President Obama now stands at 47.9% and Mitt Romney at 47.5%--for a lead for Obama of +0.4%.

National Polling Average: Obama-48.0% and Romney-47.6%

Posted Oct 30, 2012 at 10:01 AM by Maurice Berger

PollTrack's aggregate of the national polls in the presidential race as of 11:00 AM EDT this morning suggests that the race remains very close. A word of caution: several trackers have suspended operations due to Hurricane Sandy. Thus, we may need to wait a few days for additional polling. President Obama now stands at 48.0% and Mitt Romney at 47.6%--for a lead for Obama of +0.4%.

National Polling Average: Obama-47.6% and Romney-47.2%

Posted Oct 29, 2012 at 4:03 PM by Maurice Berger

PollTrack's aggregate of the national polls in the presidential race as of 5:00 PM EDT this afternoon suggests a race that remains very close. President Obama now stands at 47.6% and Mitt Romney at 47.2%--for a lead for Obama of +0.4%.

National Polling Average: Obama-47.7% and Romney-46.9%

Posted Oct 29, 2012 at 8:56 AM by Maurice Berger

PollTrack's aggregate of the national polls in the presidential race as of 9:30 AM EDT this morning continues to suggest a slight improvement for the president as well as a modest degree of momentum. President Obama now stands at 47.7% and Mitt Romney at 46.9%--for a lead for Obama of +0.8%.

In the all-important race for Electoral Votes, the president maintains an advantage. Right now, PollTrack's aggregate poll numbers on Today's Map suggests a lead for Obama of 290 to Romney's 235. Virginia remains Too-Close-To-Call at 13 EVs.

National Polling Average: Obama-47.6% and Romney-46.9%

Posted Oct 28, 2012 at 3:03 PM by Maurice Berger

PollTrack's aggregate of the national polls in the presidential race as of 4:00 PM EDT today suggests a slight improvement in the president's standing and a degree of momentum, as well. It is unclear whether this is the result of statistical noise--several polls indicated improved standing for Obama--or a durable momentum as we move towards Election Day. President Obama now stands at 47.6% and Mitt Romney at 46.9%--for a lead for Obama of +0.7%.

National Polling Average: Obama-47.5% and Romney-47.3%

Posted Oct 28, 2012 at 9:09 AM by Maurice Berger

PollTrack's aggregate of the national polls in the presidential race as of 10:00 AM EDT today remain unchanged from yesterday afternoon. President Obama now stands at 47.5% and Mitt Romney at 47.3%--for a nominal lead for Obama of +0.2%.

National Polling Average: Obama-47.5% and Romney-47.3%

Posted Oct 27, 2012 at 3:27 PM by Maurice Berger

PollTrack's aggregate of the national polls in the presidential race as of 3:00 PM today EDT continues to report a virtual tie. President Obama now stands at 47.5% and Mitt Romney at 47.3%--for a nominal lead for Obama of +0.2%.

National Polling Average: Obama-47.5% and Romney-47.4%

Posted Oct 27, 2012 at 12:43 PM by Maurice Berger

PollTrack's aggregate of the national polls in the presidential race as of noon today EDT continues to report a virtual tie. President Obama now stands at 47.5% and Mitt Romney at 47.4%--for a nominal lead for Obama of +0.1%.

National Polling Average: Obama-47.6% and Romney-47.3%

Posted Oct 26, 2012 at 5:15 PM by Maurice Berger

PollTrack's aggregate of the national polls in the presidential race continues to report a virtual tie. As of 5:00 PM EDT, President Obama now stands at 47.6% and Mitt Romney at 47.3%--for a nominal lead for Obama of +0.3%.

Colorado Now Leaning Democratic

Posted Oct 26, 2012 at 4:17 PM by Maurice Berger

With a number of polls out over the past few days in Colorado, PollTrack moves the state from Too-Close-To-Call to Leaning Democratic. Obama now leads in 290 Electoral Votes, Romney in 235, and 13 EVs (Virginia) remain Too-Close-To-Call (VA moved back from Leaning Democratic to TCTC late last night based on two days of polling suggesting that the race is virtually tied in the state).

National Aggregate: Unchanged

Posted Oct 26, 2012 at 9:55 AM by Maurice Berger

PollTrack's morning aggregate of the national polls in the presidential race remains unchanged from lat night's report. The aggregate continues to report a virtual tie. As of 9:00 AM EDT, President Obama now stands at 47.5% and Mitt Romney at 47.4%--for a nominal lead for Obama of +0.1%.

 

National Average: Obama-47.5% and Romney-47.4%

Posted Oct 25, 2012 at 6:01 PM by Maurice Berger

There is virtually no change this evening from PollTrack's morning aggregate of the national polls in the presidential race. The aggregate continues to report a virtual tie. As of 6:00 PM EDT, President Obama now stands at 47.5% and Mitt Romney at 47.4%--for a nominal lead for Obama of +0.1%.

National Tracking Average: Obama-47.5% and Romney-47.3%

Posted Oct 25, 2012 at 10:09 AM by Maurice Berger

PollTrack's morning aggregate of the national polls in the presidential race continues to report a virtual tie. As of 10:00 AM EDT, President Obama now stands at 47.5% and Mitt Romney at 47.3%--for a nominal lead for Obama of +0.2%.

National Average: Obama-47.6% to Romney 47.4%

Posted Oct 24, 2012 at 5:01 PM by Maurice Berger

PollTrack's aggregate of the national polls in the presidential race continues to report a virtual tie. As of 5:00 PM EDT, President Obama now stands at 47.6% and Mitt Romney at 47.4%--for a nominal lead for Obama of +0.2%.

Today's Map reports an improved standing for President Obama in the race for Electoral Votes. With PollTrack's moving of Virginia from Too-Close-To-Call to Leaning Democratic on Today's Map, Obama's count inched up to 294 EVs. Romney is holding steady at 235. Colorado remains the one state that is Too-Close-To-Call.

 

 

Check Back Early Evening EDT For Second Wave National Average

Posted Oct 24, 2012 at 1:17 PM by Maurice Berger

Check back with PollTrack later today for the second wave of  national presidential race aggregate of polls.

Morning National Polling Average Unchanged

Posted Oct 24, 2012 at 10:16 AM by Maurice Berger

PollTrack's morning aggregate of national polls in the presidential race remains unchanged. As of 10:00 AM EDT, President Obama now stands at 47.5% and Mitt Romney at 47.5%--a perfect tie. 

National Polling Average: Obama-47.5% to Romney-47.5%

Posted Oct 23, 2012 at 5:19 PM by Maurice Berger

PollTrack's second wave aggregate of today's national polls in the presidential race continues to report an extremely close race. As of 5:00 PM EDT, President Obama now stands at 47.5% and Mitt Romney at 47.5%--for a perfect tie. PollTrack continues to believe that the fundamentals of the race favor the president, who now stands at 281 electoral votes to Romney's 235 EVs on Today's Map. 22 EVs remain too-close-to-call.

Second Wave of PollTrack National Tracking Later Today

Posted Oct 23, 2012 at 2:05 PM by Maurice Berger

PollTrack will post its second wave of daily tracking of the national presidential polls later today. Check back late this afternoon, EDT for today's second wave results.

PollTrack National Aggregate: All Tied Up

Posted Oct 23, 2012 at 9:33 AM by Maurice Berger

PollTrack's aggregate of the national polls in the presidential race continues to report a virtual tie. As of 9:00 AM this morning, President Obama now stands at 47.3% and Mitt Romney at 47.1%--for a nominal lead for Obama of +0.2%. Return early evening for our national average with today's tracking polls included.

PollTrack National Average: The Race Is Now Tied

Posted Oct 22, 2012 at 5:35 PM by Maurice Berger

PollTrack's aggregate of the national polls in the presidential race now reports a virtual tie. Today was a busy day for polls, so the new average is based on a broad array of data. President Obama now stands at 47.2% and Mitt Romney at 47.3%--for a nominal lead for Romney of +0.1%. While momentum has shifted to Romney over the past twenty-four hours (he has made up a +0.9% deficit), the race has grown even cloudier, locked as it is in a virtual deadlock.

While the fundamentals of the electoral college still favor the president (he leads in states totaling more than 270 EVs), Romney's ascendance over the past three weeks has been rapid, definitive, and--according to the latest polls--durable (not to mention unprecedented). Will tonight's debate make a difference, affording one candidate or the other forward momentum? Will last minute events--and the candidate's response to them--break the tie? Or will Election Day be a squeaker? For both our Republican and Democratic readers, PollTrack is as nervous as you are!

PollTrack National Aggregate: Obama Up +0.9%

Posted Oct 21, 2012 at 6:23 PM by Maurice Berger

PollTrack's aggregate of the national polls in the presidential race now reports a (very slightly) increased lead for President Obama. As of 6:00 PM this afternoon, Obama is at 47.4% and Mitt Romney is at 46.5%--for an aggregate lead for the president of +0.9%.

President Up In PollTrack's National Poll Average

Posted Oct 20, 2012 at 5:13 PM by Maurice Berger

PollTrack's aggregate of the national polls in the presidential race now reports a (very slightly) increased lead for President Obama. As of 5:00 PM this afternoon, Obama is at 47.6% and Mitt Romney is at 46.5%--for an aggregate lead for the president of +1.1%. As important, across the swing state polls, the president appears to continue to be reversing some, but not all of Romney's gains over the past three weeks, and continues to lead by varying margins in all but three of the swing states, Florida, North Carolina, and Colorado, where Romney leads.

New Polling Average Later Today!

Posted Oct 20, 2012 at 1:31 PM by Maurice Berger

PollTrack is awaiting today's tracking polls. Check back in late afternoon for an up-to-the-minute accounting of where the national numbers stand.

Is The Momentum Returning To Obama?

Posted Oct 19, 2012 at 4:11 PM by Maurice Berger

PollTrack's aggregate of the national polls in the presidential race now reports a lead for President Obama. As of 4:00 PM this afternoon, Obama is at 47.4% and Mitt Romney is at 46.5%--for an aggregate lead for the president of +0.9%. More important, across the polls, the president appears to have a slight momentum heading into Monday's debate as he overtakes or ties Romney's lead in all of the surveys (with the exception of Gallup).

New Polling Average This Afternoon

Posted Oct 19, 2012 at 1:18 PM by Maurice Berger

PollTrack is awaiting a slew of national tracking polls. Check back in late afternoon for an up-to-the-minute accounting of where the national numbers stand. 

Romney Retakes National Lead

Posted Oct 18, 2012 at 7:22 PM by Maurice Berger

The PollTrack average as as 7:00 PM is Mitt Romney 47.9% and President Obama 47.3% for an aggregate national lead of +0.6% for Romney.

Obama Up 1.2% In National Average

Posted Oct 18, 2012 at 7:38 AM by Maurice Berger

The PollTrack average as as 7:00 am this morning is Obama 47.8% and Mitt Romney 46.6% for an aggregate national lead of +1.2% for the president.

Obama Up Slightly In PollTrack's National Average

Posted Oct 17, 2012 at 5:03 PM by Maurice Berger

PollTrack's average of national polls as of 5:00 PM EDT continues to show President Obama with a very slight lead over his GOP challenger Mitt Romney. The aggregate numbers are 47.8% for Obama, 47.2% for Romney, giving the president an overall lead of +0.6%--numbers pointing to a race that is virtually tied nationally.

Obama Retakes The Lead Nationally

Posted Oct 15, 2012 at 7:04 PM by Maurice Berger

After a week of consistent leads in PollTrack's aggregate poll numbers (by up to +2%), Mitt Romney has as of this evening dropped behind President Obama. The race nationally now stands at Obama 48.1% and Romney 47.0. PollTrack believes that with the race now virtually tied, momentum coming out of tomorrow's debate could be crucial. Still, with improved national and swing state polling, the president goes into tomorrow's debate as the (very slight) favorite according to PollTrack's electoral analysis.

One note of caution for both sides: it is very unusual to see the lead flip back and forth this late in a presidential cycle, indicating a very soft core of still "persuadable" voters and the potential for events on the ground to influence them. With each side firmly in control of its base, the potential for a close race or a race decided by events (or gaffes) beyond the control of the campaigns remains a reality. While the fundamentals of the race--both nationally and electorally--have and continue to favor president Obama, the potential for a late-in-the-game surprise could afford Romney a boost or push the president further forward.

Gallup: Obama's National Appoval Lowest In Modern History At This Point in Term

Posted Dec 02, 2011 at 12:52 AM by Maurice Berger

According to an analysis by Gallup, President Obama's overall decline in Gallup's daily presidential job approval index has now surpassed that of Jimmy Carter. The president's aggregate approval numbers for November 2011--a year out from the culmination of his reelection effort--represent the worst job approval rating of any president at this stage of his term in modern political history. Significantly, however, a series of recent analyses of approval ratings relative to reelection suggest that presidential numbers at this point are not always predictive of outcome. Such variables as an approving economy, the electability of the challenger, and the increasingly swift turn over of news cycles in a world a new media can all contribute to the eventual outcome of a presidential cycle. So PollTrack will be watching the next few months very closely.

ABC News: Obama's Approval High, But Also Average For A New President

Posted Feb 25, 2009 at 1:20 AM by Maurice Berger

According to ABC News, President Obama's relatively high approval rating--on average now around 62%--is impressive but not unusual for a new administration: "There are a couple of data points worth keeping in mind as we await President Obama’s address to the nation tonight - and as we digest an aide's claim today, as Jake Tapper reports, that his strong approval rating is earned." One, while his rating is high, it’s also dead average for a new president. The other is the impressive partisanship beneath it. We have approval ratings for each of the last nine elected presidents after their first month in office, back to Dwight Eisenhower. (We’re leaving Johnson and Ford aside.) There’s been a healthy range, from a low of 55 percent for George W. Bush after the disputed election of 2000 to a high of 76 percent for his father 12 years earlier. (I’m using ABC/Post polls since Reagan, Gallup previously). But the average? Sixty-seven percent. And Obama’s? Sixty-eight percent, as we reported in our new poll yesterday. His initial rating, then, is strong – but it’s also generally typical for a new guy." PollTrack cuations that any poll--even the most accurate--is just a snapshot in term. Events on the ground can change public perceptions about a political leader in an instant (George W. Bush's gargantuan jump in public approval after 9/11 is a case in point).

Daily Tracking Average: Obama Bumps Up An Additional +1.6%

Posted Nov 03, 2008 at 8:48 AM by Maurice Berger

Today's daily tracking poll average indicates a comfortable national aggregate lead of +6.6% for the Democrat, 50.6% to 44%. Still, with Obama up as much as +25% in states with some of the largest populations--such as CA, NY, MA, IL, MI--this national number may not reflect the relativeness closeness of the race in several key battleground states, including OH, NC, and FL. Much of today's polling continues to indicate an unusually large bloc of undecided or still persuadable voters. IBD/TIPP puts the figure at an amazing 9.5% undecided. A just issued CBS News periodic poll indicates a 6% undecided block. And Rasmussen still indicates that 10% of voters remain uncertain, lean to one candidate, or intend to vote for a third party candidate. The large undecided bloc that continues to register in some polls is unusually high the day before a national cycle, particularly one with as much voter enthusiasm as this one. Where will these voters wind up, if and when they vote?

 

Final Daily Tracking Average and Final TOMORROW'S MAP Will Be Issued Tomorrow Morning

Posted Nov 03, 2008 at 2:38 AM by Maurice Berger

Since a number of pollsters will be gathering and analyzing samples throughout today (and well into the evening) our final Daily Tracking Poll Average and final Tomorrow's Map will be issued tomorrow morning, on Election Day.

Daily Tacking Poll Average: Obama Now Up +5.7%

Posted Oct 31, 2008 at 7:06 AM by Maurice Berger

For the second day, Obama's daily tracking poll national average lead has inched upward. As of today, has holds a +5.7% advantage, 48.2% to 43.8%. Interestingly, the IBD/TIPP tracking survey (the most accurate national pollster in 2004) this afternoon reports that a whopping 13% of independent voters still say they are undecided, a scant four days before the election. This, combined with the large number of "persuadable" voters that register in many of these surveys, suggests a bit of volatility in the race.

Uptick For Obama In Today's PollTrack Daily Tracker Average

Posted Oct 30, 2008 at 8:08 AM by Maurice Berger

PollTrack's average of today's daily tracker shows improvement for Obama over yesterday's results. He now leads 49.3% to 44.3%, for an aggregate advantage of +5.0%, a full +1% gain in 24 hours.

Daily Tracking Average: Obama's Lead Narrows, Yet Again

Posted Oct 29, 2008 at 8:44 AM by Maurice Berger

With four out of six daily tracking polls reporting only a +3% national lead for Obama (Gallup-traditional, IBD/TIPP, Rasmussen, and GWU/Battleground) and two others indicating a narrowing of the Democrat's lead over the past week, Obama's daily tracking poll average advantage has fallen to +4% DEM, 48.8% to 44.8%. This is the fourth straight day of decline for Obama and a three-point drop from the +7% lead reported on Saturday. There seems to be some evidence that undecided and persuadable voters are breaking, at least modestly, for McCain. Republican party sources are also reporting that some key statewide races are tightening as well. In Florida, where Obama had moved into a slight lead , tracking polls, according to party sources, are indicating a spike in support for McCain, who has moved into a 3-5% lead in the state. PollTrack will be watching these numbers very closely over the next few days.

Daily Tracking Poll Average: Some Erosion of Obama's National Lead

Posted Oct 28, 2008 at 8:48 AM by Maurice Berger

With Obama's daily tracking average lead jumping to +7% four days ago, it is noteworthy that today's tracker average indicates a further narrowing of the race (a trend that started on Sunday). Obama now leads McCain 49.3% to 45.0%, for an overall average of +4.3% DEM. (Gallup's traditional model for likely voters shows the race nearly tied, with Obama ahead, 49% to 47%.) PollTrack will keep a close eye on these numbers over the next few days.

Daily Tracking Poll Average: The Race Is Narrowing A Bit

Posted Oct 27, 2008 at 8:42 AM by Maurice Berger

With one poll showing Obama's lead slipping to 2.8% (IBD/TIPP, the most accurate pollster in 2004), and all of the other daily trackers reporting a tightening of the race to one degree or another, PollTrack wonders if the race could get closer before next Tuesday. Today's numbers favor Obama, 49.5% to 44.7%, for a lead of 4.8%. Obama's average lead just two days ago was 7.0%.

Daily Tracking Average: Obama's Lead Narrows Slightly

Posted Oct 26, 2008 at 8:56 AM by Maurice Berger

The PollTrack average of today daily tracking comes gives Obama a +5.8% lead, 49.5% to 43.8%. This figure represents a +1.2% drop for the Democrat from yesterday's numbers. Several individual polls suggest a tightening; a few others a slight uptick for Obama.

Daily Tracking Poll Average: Obama Now Up +7%

Posted Oct 25, 2008 at 7:42 AM by Maurice Berger

PollTrack's average of today's daily trackers indicates a +1% jump for Obama. The Democrat now leads, 50% to 43%, +7.0% DEM. Excluding the erratic Zogby survey, Obama's lead drops slightly to +6.5%. GWU/Battleground, which has shown the race close in recent days, does not release polling on Saturday and Sunday.

Daily Tracking Poll Average: Uptick For Obama

Posted Oct 24, 2008 at 9:25 AM by Maurice Berger

With all of today's daily tracking polls indicating a slight uptick in Obama's numbers (save the erratic Zogby survey), the Democrat now has a +5.9% average lead in PollTrack's daily calculation, 49.6% to 43.6%. (Without Zogby, Obama's lead drops to 5.1%.)

Daily Trackers: Obama at +5.5%, But With Odd Anomalies

Posted Oct 23, 2008 at 7:27 AM by Maurice Berger

Is John McCain gaining traction in the waning days of election 2008? Yesterday, AP/GfK and GWU/Battleground, contradicting most other polling, showed the race drawing to a virtual tie, with Obama leading by 1% and 2% respectively. Today's PT average of the Daily trackers gives Obama a +5.5% lead, 49.3% to 43.8% (the same as yesterday. If we drop out the Zogby survey--polling that has been erratic and out of sync with most other organizations--Obama's lead drops to 4.2%, 48.8% to 44.6%. Odder still, are the results of the IBD/TIPP daily tracking poll (worthy of notice, because TIPP was the most accurate pollster in 2004, predicting the outcome within a fraction of a percentage point): they show the race virtually dead even nationally. IBD/TIPP writes: "McCain has cut into Obama's lead for a second day and is now just 1.1 points behind. The spread was 3.7 Wednesday and 6.0 Tuesday. The Republican is making headway with middle- and working- class voters, and has surged 10 points in two days among those earning between $30,000 and $75,000. He has also gone from an 11-point deficit to a 9-point lead among Catholics."

McCain's Challenge III

Posted Oct 23, 2008 at 3:17 AM by Maurice Berger

Another of McCain's challenges--filtered through the ever watchful eyes of PollTrack--can be summed up in four words: Obama's "Safe Democrat" advantage. As of this morning on Today's Map (and trending similarly on Tomorrow's Map) Obama approaches the magic number of 270 electoral votes even without "Leaning Democrat" states: of his 286 EVs on Today's Map, 255 are "safe," meaning that his average PT lead is large enough (at this point) to probably overcome  a range of possible problems, from the so-called Bradley Effect to lower turn-out among his most ardent supporters. By contract, McCain now holds on to 137 "safe" EVs. On Tomorrow's Map, McCain's "safe" EV count jumps slightly to 160. The good news for Obama: no matter the apparent fluidity and/or variations of his lead in the national numbers, his substantial leads in many states may be impossible for McCain to overcome. Indeed, the 10% or greater advantage Obama now maintains in many states has historically held: candidates this far ahead in statewide polling in mid-October inevitably win those states in November. Could this election defy history? Yes. But with each passing day, Obama is looking increasingly secure in enough states to dramatically limit his opponent's path to victory.

Daily Trackers: Tiny Uptick For Obama

Posted Oct 20, 2008 at 8:32 AM by Maurice Berger

PollTrack's average of today's daily tracking polls indicates a tiny tenth of a percentage point uptick for the Democrat: Obama 48.8% McCain 43.9% +4.9% DEM.

Daily Trackers: Is The Race Getting Tighter?

Posted Oct 17, 2008 at 7:36 AM by Maurice Berger

Today's PollTrack average of the daily trackers indicates a slight uptick for the Democrat. Obama now leads McCain by 48.8% to 43.3%, a lead of 5.5%. One survey in the lot, however, GW/Battleground appears to be an outlier, indicating a greatly expanded Obama lead, while the other trackers all show a narrowing or stable race. If the GW/Battleground is omitted from the average, Obama's lead drops to +4%--48.8% to 44.6%. Furthermore, an AP/Yahoo poll to be released today shows the race a virtual tie, with Obama leading by scant +2% (among registered voters), 42% to 40% (with an enormous block of voters still undecided or wavering; Obama's lead jumps to 5% among "Likely Voters"). Gallup's "traditional" method also calls it a two point race (Obama, 49% to 47%), while its "expanded" tally gives the Democrat a +6% advantage.

Daily Tracking Poll Average Narrows Again

Posted Oct 16, 2008 at 9:15 AM by Maurice Berger

Yesterday, our daily tracking poll average reported a lead of 5.2% for Obama. Today, this lead has narrowed once again: Obama 48.7% to McCain 44.0%, up +4.7% DEM. Will last night's debate impact on McCain's very modest but steady momentum in the daily trackers? (A week ago, the Democrat's lead was +7.3%--2.6% higher than today.)

Could A Narrowing In National Numbers Be Significant?

Posted Oct 16, 2008 at 2:45 AM by Maurice Berger

A reader asks: why is a narrowing in the national polls significant, especially with Obama more than 100 electoral votes ahead of McCain on Today's Map? With nearly twice as many persuadable and undecided voters than at this point in the 2004 election--and 45% of respondents saying that Obama is not qualified to be president (only Michael Dukakis in 1988 had a higher rating in this regard)--any tightening of the race could be meaningful. And if history is any guide, the survey that now shows the race the closest--IBD/TIPP--was also the most accurate in predicting the outcome of the last presidential election. (Given PollTrack's reliance on polling averages, you might want to take this observation with a grain of salt.) National numbers, however, are not the whole story: we elect presidents not through natiowide totals but 51 winner-take-all statewide contests (save for NE and ME, where EVs are split by congressional districts). Ultimately, national advantages often trickle down to the states. As national numbers change, so eventually can the numbers in battleground states. The average lag between national and statewide trends is a week or two. Indeed, today, we're seeing a slight tightening--and improvement in McCain's polling averages--of several states, including North Carolina, West Virginia, Missouri, and Colorado. Still, a number of national polls report a wide lead for Obama, so statewide trending could also increase the Democrat's advantage in the battlegrounds.

Obama's Lead

Posted Oct 06, 2008 at 5:32 AM by Maurice Berger

Polltrack's average of Monday's daily tracking polls continues to show a statistically significant lead for Obama (+7.3%)--a figure that also places the Democrat a tiny fraction shy of the 50% mark: Obama-49.8% to McCain-42.5%. The big question: can the Republican ticket erase this increasingly durable Democratic advantage a month out from the election. One poll released today, by Democracy Corps shows a much closer race--Obama-48%, McCain-45%, Nader-3%, Barr-2%--so PollTrack will be watching the height and depth of Obama's national support over the next week. One red flag for the McCain campaign: the Democrat's national lead is translating into dramatically improved numbers in many battleground states.

Obama's Milestones: At the 50% Mark AND +7% In Daily Tracking Average

Posted Oct 04, 2008 at 12:23 PM by Maurice Berger

The week ends with two major milestones for the Obama campaign: a national lead in most surveys at or near the 50% mark and a statistically significant advantage over his Republican rival. With today's PollTrack national daily tracking poll average showing Obama up +7%, the Democrat is heading into the last month of Election 2008 in a position of strength. Obama's lead is larger than either candidate's thus far (and he is the first to hover at the 50% mark for more than a day or two). The longer Obama can remain at or near the 50% (or surge above it) and maintain a lead beyond the margin of error of most national polls, the harder it will be for McCain to remake the dynamics of the race. Yes, as this morning's post suggests, it's far from over for the Republican. The fortunes of the two candidates have swung dramatically over the past month. But the McCain campaign must act quickly or risk loosing a large bloc of independent and unaffiliated voters, who are growing increasingly comfortable with the idea of an Obama presidency, especially in light of the faltering economy. The two milestones confirmed by today's polls--and Obama's surge over the past week in a number of battleground states, including traditionally Republican ones, like Indiana and North Carolina--suggest that the Republican path to victory has grown narrower and more difficult.

Ohio: Improvement For Obama

Posted Oct 01, 2008 at 5:55 AM by Maurice Berger

After weeks of trailing McCain in Ohio in PollTrack's poll average, Barack Obama has taken a small lead in the state. This is another sign of the Democrat's momentum over the past week and an indication that the Republican is having trouble holding on to some of the battleground/swing states won by George W. Bush in 2004.

Daily Trackers Show Improvement for McCain

Posted Sep 25, 2008 at 5:25 AM by Maurice Berger

Four daily tracking polls released today all indicate improvement for McCain. Gallup now calls the race a tie at 46% (from a +6% lead for the Democrat only five days ago). Battleground continues to give McCain a razor-thin lead: 48% to 47%. And Hotline/FD and Rasmussen both indicate a small drop in Obama's numbers over the past three days. Obama now holds a 1.5% lead in the PollTrack national daily tracking poll average: 47.3% to 45.8%.

Today's Map: PollTrack Now Has Poll Averages for EVERY State!

Posted Sep 24, 2008 at 7:28 AM by Maurice Berger

With new numbers just in from Hawaii, PollTrack has a milestone to report: we now have poll averages for every state on Today's Map. Only DC remains unpolled. Remember: Roll over a state for poll averages, click for commentary.

How the Maps Work

Posted Aug 22, 2008 at 7:47 AM by Maurice Berger

For new visitors or for old visitors who would like a refresher course, here is a guide to PollTrack's unique mapping system. Remember, both Today's Map and Tomorrow's Map will be changing continuously throughout the election cycle, so check back often.

First, an overview: our innovative presidential election maps offer a snapshot of where things stand and where they are headed in the state-by-state hunt for electoral votes. Armed with public opinion polls, the history and demographics of each state, knowledge of the nation’s geographic and cultural diversity, and common sense and intuition, political director Maurice Berger offers continuous updates and a blog (below map) on the state of the presidential race. Today’s Map Today monitors its current status. Tomorrow’s Map Today charts its momentum in the coming days or weeks. And Election Day Today records the actual outcome of the 2012 presidential race.

Here's a guide to each map:

Today's Map Today: This map monitors the current status of the race. It gauges the relative strength of each candidate within each state as it presently stands. Each state is marked with its abbreviation and number of electoral votes. Click on a state for commentary in the ongoing PollTrack blog.

States are called on an ongoing basis: Blue and Red for “Safe” Democrat or Republican respectively, Light Blue or Light Red for states currently “leaning” toward one party or another. Determinations are based on a combination of factors, including poll averages, trends in most recent polling that contradict or call into question the accuracy of these averages, and on the ground reports and information. For diehard red or blue states (like Idaho or DC), little polling may be available, so the state will be called on the basis of on the ground reports and/or its stable voting history.

Tomorrow's Map Today: This map charts the momentum of the race. It tracks the hunt for electoral votes in each state as it might play out in the coming days or even weeks. States are called on an ongoing basis: Blue and Red for trends that suggest “Safe” Democrat or Republican respectively, Light Blue or Light Red for trends that suggest a state is “leaning” toward one party or another. Determinations are based on a combination of factors, including movement in the most recent polling, a state’s demographics and voting history, on the ground reports and information, and news about a candidate's state-wide political activities.

Election Day Map Today: This map forecasts the outcome of the 2012 presidential race. Win Democrat or Win Republican respectively. Determinations are based on a combination of factors, including long term and recent trends in state-wide polling, a state’s demographics and voting history in relationship to these trends, on the ground reports and information, and news about a candidate's state-wide political activities. States are called on an ongoing basis, with Blue (Democrat) and Red (Republican) indicating PollTrack’s long-term prediction for a state. NOTE: calls are made only when voter opinion begins to solidify in each state, thus this map will fill-in slowly over the next two and half months.