Presidential Race Maps Writing on the Wall

Affordable Care Act Slightly More Popular Than President

Posted Apr 08, 2014 at 8:01 AM by Maurice Berger

A new NPR poll reports that the Affordable Care Act is supported by 47% of Americans nationally, while 51% oppose it. The Presidents approval rating, in contrast, is at 46%

Iowa: Presidential Approval At New Low

Posted Mar 20, 2014 at 6:52 AM by Maurice Berger

A new poll by Des Moines Register in Iowa reports President Obama's job approval rating in the state "has ticked down yet again to 36%, setting a record low for his presidency."

Americans Down On Their Political Leaders

Posted Feb 04, 2014 at 7:35 AM by Maurice Berger

A new poll by the Washington Post/ABC News reports that a mere 37% of Americans say they have either a "good amount or a great deal" of confidence in President Obama to make the right decisions for the country's future; 63% do not. Congress doeseven less well in the survey: just 27% percent say they have confidence in congressional Democrats to make the right decisions for the country; 72% do not. For the GOP, it's even worse with just 19% having confidence in Republicans, and 80% not. The poll notes: "For the GOP, the lack of faith in their decision-making includes their own followers. Just 36% of self-identified Republicans say they believe their party's lawmakers will make good decisions. In contrast, a majority of Democrats have confidence in their congressional party."

Obama's Personal Image Improves

Posted Jan 27, 2014 at 9:35 AM by Maurice Berger

A new poll by Associated Press-GfK reports that President Obama's has improved considerably after a sharp decline during the government shutdown late last year, with 58% now seeing him as very or somewhat likable, an improvement of +9% since October. The President's approval rating remain problematic, with 45% approving of his job performance, 53% disapproving.

Obama's Approval Improves

Posted Jan 15, 2014 at 8:07 AM by Maurice Berger

According to a poll by Rasmussen Reports, President Obama's approval rating is now even at 49% to 49% among likely voters. Rasmussen notes that "this is the first time since October 27 that the president's total disapproval has fallen below 50%. Disapproval peaked at 56% on November 20."

President's Approval Rating Rebounds

Posted Jan 02, 2014 at 8:03 AM by Maurice Berger

According to an analysis by Bloomberg, President Obama "has picked up five points in public approval since he's gone away to Hawaii for a year-end family vacation. . . . The president's public approval rating was hanging at 39% in the days before Christmas, by the Gallup Poll's average of daily tracking surveys. Today... his approval has risen to 44%. His disapproval rating, 54% pre-Christmas, is down to 49%."

A 2014 Wave?

Posted Dec 30, 2013 at 12:05 AM by Maurice Berger

A poll by Washington Post-ABC News reports that 72% of those who disapprove of President Obama's job performance, say that they would vote for the GOP candidate for U.S. House in their district if the election were held today, while just 14% say they'd vote for the Democrat.    

Obama Loosing Young Americans

Posted Dec 19, 2013 at 9:50 AM by Maurice Berger

A new poll by the USA Today/Pew Research reports that just 45% of 18- to 29-year-old Americans approve of the way President Obama is handling his job; 46% disapprove. The survey notes that "the president's approval rating with young Americans -- which stood at 67% just ahead of his second inauguration less than a year ago -- now mirrors the general population."

Obama Approval Drops To New Low, Or Does It?

Posted Dec 11, 2013 at 8:24 AM by Maurice Berger

According to a new Quinnipiac poll, President Obama's job approval among American voters has dropped to a new low, a negative 38% to 57%. But a new poll by Pew Research reports a different outcome, with the President's approval rising slightly to 45% to 49%, reversing a six-month slide.

Can Obama Govern Federal Government Effectively?

Posted Nov 26, 2013 at 9:15 AM by Maurice Berger

A new poll by CNN/ORC reports that only 40% of Americans believe President Obama can manage the federal government effectively, a -12% decline since June.

CNN: President Obama's Approval At All-Time Low

Posted Nov 25, 2013 at 8:13 AM by Maurice Berger

A new poll by CNN/ORC reports that 41% of Americans approve of President Obama's job performance, his lowest number in CNN polling to date. 56% disapprove, an all-time high in CNN surveys.

Obama's Approval Drops To All Time Low

Posted Nov 13, 2013 at 12:04 AM by Maurice Berger

A new poll by Quinnipiac reports that American voters disapprove of the job President Obama is doing by 54% to 39%. This represents his lowest approval rating since he took office in 2009. Particularly worrying for the president: women disapprove of his performance by a margin of 51% to 40%.

Obama's Popularity Falters In Iowa

Posted Oct 18, 2013 at 7:48 AM by Maurice Berger

A Des Moines Register Iowa Poll reports that the President's job approval rating is faltering on the state: 58% of Iowa adults say they disapprove of the job he's doing; just 39% approve."    

President's Job Approval Rating Improves

Posted Oct 17, 2013 at 9:03 AM by Maurice Berger

A new poll by Fox News suggests that Federal government shutdown may have improved the President's standing with Americans.  The survey reports that Obama's overall job rating has improved +5% over last month: 45% now approve, up from 40% in September. 

Obama Approval Drops

Posted Sep 11, 2013 at 8:44 AM by Maurice Berger

A poll by NBC reports that President Obama's  job-approval rating has dropped to 44%, which is tied for his lowest mark in past surveys over his entire term. His approval rating on foreign policy is even lower, with just 41% approving of his handling of the issue, an all-time low.

Obama Approval Erodes

Posted Jul 24, 2013 at 9:02 AM by Maurice Berger

A new poll by McClatchy-Marist reports that just 41% of Americans approve of the job President Obama is doing in office; 48% disapprove; and 11% are unsure. These numbers represent Obama's lowest approval rating since September 2011 when only 39% of voters approved of his performance.

Obama Approval Declines

Posted Jul 15, 2013 at 9:28 AM by Maurice Berger

A new survey by Quinnipiac reports that President Obama now has a net negative approval rating, with 44% approving of his job performance and 48% disapproving.

Gallup Analyzes President's Approval Numbers

Posted Jul 10, 2013 at 7:48 AM by Maurice Berger

A new survey by Gallup reports that "although Americans rate President Barack Obama highest on being likable (76%) among a set of personal characteristics, those views are not strongly related to their overall approval of the job he is doing as president. Instead, two other characteristics he scores well on -- displaying good judgment in a crisis (58%) and being honest and trustworthy (55%) -- do relate highly to his overall job approval rating. Perceptions that Obama "shares your values" are the strongest predictor of approval, but his score on that dimension, 48%, is only average on a relative basis." Here is Gallup's chart:

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Obama Approval In Ohio Drops To Historic Low

Posted Jun 26, 2013 at 8:07 AM by Maurice Berger

A new poll by Quinnipiac in Ohio reports that President Obama's job approval has dropped to 40%, with 57% disapproving, his lowest rating ever in the state.

Gallup: Approval Ratings of Ex-Presidents Improve With Time

Posted May 30, 2013 at 8:44 AM by Maurice Berger

In a fascinating analysis, Gallup accesses movement in approval ratings for presidents as the memory of their time in office recedes: "[Our] review of presidential job approval ratings finds that presidents' retrospective approval ratings are almost always more positive than their job approval ratings while in office. In particular, Americans rate John F. Kennedy, Gerald Ford, Jimmy Carter, and Ronald Reagan much more positively in retrospect than they did while the men were president." Here is Gallup's chart: 

Presidential Job Approval Ratings While in Office vs. Retrospective Job Approval Ratings

Obama Approval Remains Steady At 51%

Posted May 22, 2013 at 6:21 AM by Maurice Berger

A new survey by Washington Post-ABC News reports that President Obama's approval rating continues to remain steady at 51% to 44%, despite "fresh disclosures about the IRS, the Benghazi attack and the Justice Department's secret collection of telephone records of Associated Press journalists as part of a leak investigation."

PPP Survey: Mixed Result About Obama's Effectiveness as President

Posted May 14, 2013 at 4:25 AM by Maurice Berger

A new Pew Research poll reports mixed results on voter's attitudes about President Obama's performance in office: just 49% believes that President Obama is "able to get things done," a steep decline from 57% in January and closer to his levels of confidence in 2012. Conversely, and a net positive for the president, the vast majority of Americans, 67%, believe Obama is fighting hard for his policies, a significant improvement.

Obama's Approval Rating In Decline

Posted Mar 27, 2013 at 8:09 AM by Maurice Berger

A new poll by Pew Research suggests further erosion of President Obama's job approval rating. Since the period just after his re-election, his approval numbet has dropped from 55% to 47%, "as the public's economic expectations for the coming year have soured"

CNN: Obama's Approval Rating Declines

Posted Mar 22, 2013 at 11:55 AM by Maurice Berger

A new poll by CNN reports that President Obama's approval number (50%) is now lower than his disapproval rating (47%).

Obama Job Approval Continues To Decline

Posted Mar 15, 2013 at 8:22 AM by Maurice Berger

According to a poll by McClatchy-Marist, President Obama "had piled up political capital with his impressive re-election, it's largely gone. His approval rating has dropped to the lowest level in more than a year, with more voters now turning thumbs down on his performance than thumbs up." The survey continues: "The measure of how much people like him also has dropped. He's still vastly more popular than Congress, particularly congressional Republicans. But in the biggest political clash of the year - over the federal budget and how to curb deficits - voters split 44 percent to 42 percent between preferring Congress or Obama. At least some of the president's fall to Earth lies in the fact that voters no longer see him in the context of an election. He has to stand alone in the eyes of voters again and doesn't benefit from the comparison with Republican rival Mitt Romney."

Obama Approval Declining

Posted Mar 14, 2013 at 7:18 AM by Maurice Berger

According to new poll from Washington Post-ABC News, President Obama's approval rate has dropped -5% in the last month to 50%. ABC News reports that his advantage after his reelection "appears to have vanished as increasingly negative views among Americans about his stewardship of the economy have forced his public approval rating back down to the 50 percent mark. . .  In December, just after he won a second term, Obama held an 18-percentage-point advantage over congressional Republicans on the question of whom the public trusted more to deal with the economy. Now, it's a far more even split -- 44% to 40%, with a slight edge for the president -- but the share of those saying they have confidence in "neither" has ticked up into double digits."

Obama Job Approval Highest In Three Years

Posted Feb 27, 2013 at 8:24 AM by Maurice Berger

A new Bloomberg National Poll reports that President Obama has achieved his highest job approval in three years. 55% of Americans now approve of his performance in office, the strongest support since Sept 2009. 

Obama's Approval Ratings Decline

Posted Feb 11, 2013 at 11:00 AM by Maurice Berger

Is President Obama's second-term honeymoon over with voters. Two polls seems to suggest the answer is yes. The surveys now report that the Obama's approval rate has dropped below 50%: Fox News has it at 49%, while it is 46% according to Quinnipiac.

Polarizing Presidency?

Posted Jan 28, 2013 at 7:30 AM by Maurice Berger

According to Gallup, "during his fourth year in office, an average of 86% of Democrats and 10% of Republicans approved of the job Barack Obama did as president. That 76-percentage-point gap ties George W. Bush's fourth year as the most polarized years in Gallup records."

Obama Approval Similar to George W. Bush At This Point In Term

Posted Jan 23, 2013 at 8:58 AM by Maurice Berger

In its analysis of its recent approval polling for the president, the New York Times/CBS News observes that the President's "job approval rating is similar to that of George W. Bush at the start of his second term, but much lower than the ratings of the previous two presidents who served eight years. (President Bill Clinton's approval rate was 60 percent in January 1997 and Ronald Reagan's was 62 percent in January 1985.) More than 8 in 10 Democrats approve of his job performance, 8 in 10 Republicans disapprove and independents are evenly divided."

Majority Approve Of President's Job Performance

Posted Jan 18, 2013 at 9:02 AM by Maurice Berger

According to a new NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll, 52% of Americans approve of President Obama's overall job performance. 

Gallup: Obama Approval At Highest Since 2009

Posted Dec 21, 2012 at 8:43 AM by Maurice Berger

A new poll by Gallup reports that President Obama's approval rating now stands at 56%, his highest mark on that question since October 2009; only 37% disapprove of his job performance.

Obama Approval At Highest Level in Three Years

Posted Dec 19, 2012 at 10:18 AM by Maurice Berger

A survey by Bloomberg reports that President Obama's job approval has improved to 53%, his highest level in three years, when his approval rating was 54%.

Post-Election Bounce?

Posted Dec 10, 2012 at 9:54 AM by Maurice Berger

According to a new poll by Associated Press-GfK, President Obama's approval rating now stands at 57%, the highest since May 2011, when U.S. Navy SEALs killed Osama bin Laden. The president received a clear post-election bounce of + 5%, since 6 November. Overall perceptions of the health of the nation have also improved, with more Americans believing that the nation is heading in the right direction than at any time since the start of President Obama's first term.

President's Approval Number At 50% Or Above In Only 13-States

Posted Aug 06, 2012 at 9:48 AM by Maurice Berger

According to Gallup, at this point in Election 2012, only 13-states give the president a net approval rating over 50%. Gallup observes: " A majority of residents in 13 states and the District of Columbia approved of the job Barack Obama did as president during the first six months of 2012. His highest ratings by state were in Hawaii (63%) and Rhode Island (58%), in addition to the 83% approval from District of Columbia residents. In 16 states, his approval rating averaged below 40%, with residents of Utah, Wyoming, and Alaska least approving." Of course, these numbers are to a great extent mitigated by the fact the Obama's GOP challenger, Mitt Romney, scores far lower in approval and far higher in disapproval than the president. Additionally, while Romney likeability numbers remain extremely low (the lowest of any major party candidate in years), the president's numbers remain over 50% (and are even higher in many of the swing states). Here is Gallup's chart:

Barack Obama Job Approval Averages by State, January-June 2012

The Demographics Of The President's Approval Numbers

Posted Jul 10, 2012 at 9:50 AM by Maurice Berger

For a snapshot of the demographics of President Obama's approval rating, here is an informative breakdown of the numbers by Gallup (for the week of 25 June through 1 July):

 



41%

38%

69%

88%

58%

86%

11%

Ronney Not Popular Nationally

Posted Mar 30, 2012 at 12:25 AM by Maurice Berger

A poll from ABC News-Washington Post reports that Mitt Romney now trails President Obama by 19% in popularity. Just 34% hold a favorable opinion of Romney as compared to 53% for Obama. In the poll, Romney's 50% unfavorable score is higher than Obama ever has received.

Majority Of Voters Believe President Obama Will Be Reelected

Posted Mar 14, 2012 at 11:28 PM by Maurice Berger

In an important indicator for the President--since, as PollTrack note, perception plays a big role in politics--a new Pew Research survey reports that 59% of American voters say that President Obama is likely to be re-elected if his opponent is Mitt Romney; between Obama and Rick Santorum, 68% anticipate an Obama victory.

President Obama Way Ahead With Hispanic Voters

Posted Mar 09, 2012 at 3:18 AM by Maurice Berger

A new national Fox News Latino poll of likely Latino voters reports that "73% approve of Obama’s performance in office, with over half those questioned looking favorably upon his handling of the healthcare debate and the economy, at 66% and 58% respectively. . . . the poll shows that the overwhelming choice among likely Latino voters is President Obama. In head-to-head match-ups none of the GOP candidates would garner more than 14 percent of the Latino vote come November." If these numbers can be sustained, PollTrack believes that it would be extremely difficult, if not impossible, for a GOP candidate to make up the difference. The poll is very good news for the President's reelection effort and a warning to Republicans.

Today's Map: Iowa Now Leaning Republican

Posted Feb 21, 2012 at 1:20 AM by Maurice Berger

Although President Obama's standing in many of the swing states--including Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Ohio--have show improvement in recent weeks, his standing in one state, Iowa, is actually in decline. A poll by the Des Moines Register in Iowa shows the president trailing three of the four Republican candidates in head-to-head match-ups: Ron Paul, who leads Obama by +7%, 49% to 42%. Rick Santorum leads 48% to 44%. Mitt Romney leads Obama 46% to 44%. The president defeats only Newt Gingrich, 51% to 37%. PollTrack moves Iowa on Today's Map from Too-Close-Too-Call to Leaning Republican.

More Good News For the President

Posted Feb 16, 2012 at 2:21 AM by Maurice Berger

As PollTrack noted yesterday, the tide appears to be turning in favor of the president's reelection. Two new polls, hypothetical matchups for the fall election, confirm this observation.  A survey by CNN/Opinion Research reports that President Obama bests all of his possible Republican rivals in GOP match ups: Obama leads Romney, 51% to 46%, tops Santorum, 52% to 45%, beats Paul, 52% to 45%, and crushes Gingrich, 55% to 42%.

Another poll, by Fox News, of key battleground states -- Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Nevada, New Mexico, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Ohio, Virginia and Wisconsin -- reports the same: Obama leads Romney, 47% to 39%, tops Santorum, 48% to 38%, beats Paul 48% to 37% and crushes Gingrich, 52% to 32%.

Electoral Map: Ohio Leans Democratic

Posted Feb 02, 2012 at 1:08 AM by Maurice Berger

With a new Public Policy Polling survey reporting that President Obama has broken even with Ohio voters-- 48% now approve of him with an equal 48% disapproving--PollTrack now rates the state "Leaning Democrat" on Today's Map. This call is influenced by another finding in the poll: Just 28% of Ohioans have a favorable opinion of Mitt Romney to 56% with a negative one. According to the survey, Obama leads Romney in a possible general election match up by seven points, 49% to 42%.

President Obama's Third-Year Approval Average At 44%.

Posted Jan 27, 2012 at 1:52 AM by Maurice Berger

According to an analysis by Gallup, President Obama's third-year approval average--at 44%--is the second lowest for a president in the past 50-years. Looking just at other elected presidents' third-year averages, only Jimmy Carter's 37% average in 1979-1980 is lower than Obama's. Ronald Reagan's third-year average of 45% was similar to Obama's. Crucial to reading this analysis, PollTrack believes, is the perception of the electorate moving into the fourth year: if the economic and political climate appear to be improving, as they were with Ronald Reagan and Bill Clinton, the voters often reelect a president with relatively low approval ratings in the third year. So PollTrack will keep a close eye on the economic atomosphere as we move into election 2012. Here is Gallup's chart:

Third-Year Job Approval Averages of Elected Presidents

President Obama's Approval Rating Rebounds

Posted Dec 21, 2011 at 12:56 AM by Maurice Berger

In a report that spells good news for President Obama, his job approval rating has risen to a near majority--49%--according to a just released survey by ABC News/Washington Post  The survey notes that this is Obama's "best showing since spring, and one, if it holds, that may put his re-election prospects back within reach."

Gallup: Obama's National Appoval Lowest In Modern History At This Point in Term

Posted Dec 02, 2011 at 12:52 AM by Maurice Berger

According to an analysis by Gallup, President Obama's overall decline in Gallup's daily presidential job approval index has now surpassed that of Jimmy Carter. The president's aggregate approval numbers for November 2011--a year out from the culmination of his reelection effort--represent the worst job approval rating of any president at this stage of his term in modern political history. Significantly, however, a series of recent analyses of approval ratings relative to reelection suggest that presidential numbers at this point are not always predictive of outcome. Such variables as an approving economy, the electability of the challenger, and the increasingly swift turn over of news cycles in a world a new media can all contribute to the eventual outcome of a presidential cycle. So PollTrack will be watching the next few months very closely.

Election 2012: Obama Approval Up Slightly

Posted Nov 07, 2011 at 12:35 AM by Maurice Berger

A poll by Reuters/Ipsos reports that President Obama's approval rating is up slightly, now at 49%, with disapproval at 50%. PollTrack's aggregate numbers alas show slight improvement: with his approval rating at 46% (up from 44% last month) and a disapproval number at 50.8%.

PollTrack Analysis: Tomorrow's Special Election in NY-9

Posted Sep 12, 2011 at 1:30 AM by Maurice Berger

Tomorrow's special election in New York's 9th congressional district, for the seat vacated by Rep. Anthony Weiner who resigned earlier this year, a new Siena poll reports that the Republican candidate, Robert Turner, now holds a six point lead over David Weprin, 50% to 44%. If Turner should win in this vastly Democratic district, Weprin's loss may hold real implications for next year's election cycle. Anecdotal reporting suggests that some Democrats, upset with the Obama administration, may intend to send a message to the president by voting for Turner. The problem for the Democrats: if the heavily Democratic, New York district tips into the Republican column, then far closer swing states, such as Florida, Ohio, and even Pennsylvania--Obama's approval in the three states is somewhere in the mid to high 30s--are undoubtedly in play. The president's approval numbers at this point remain problematic. Two previous incumbents with relatively low numbers in their third year, but who went on to win reelection--Reagan and Clinton--were at this point in their presidency recovering politically, each nearing the 50% mark. Obama's present approval number averages 44%, far below the 48% thought to be a good marker of potential reelection. Stay tuned.

 

Gallup: Obama Approval Lagging

Posted Sep 09, 2011 at 1:32 AM by Maurice Berger

An assessment of the President's August poll numbers by Gallup reports that Obama's approval rating has hit a new low. Just 41% approved of the president's overall job performance in August (a three point drop from July). He also received term-low monthly approval ratings from both Hispanics (48%) and whites (33%) and tied his lowest rating from blacks (84%).

Election 2012: Obama Lags In Pennsylvania

Posted Sep 07, 2011 at 1:49 AM by Maurice Berger

In numbers that may well bode poorly for the President, a new Franklin & Marshall poll in Pennsylvania reports that his approval rating in the state is just 34%. Since PA is key presidential battleground state, it will be imperative for the Democrat to improve his standing in a state that has gone with the Democrat in every election since 1992.

Election 2012: Obama In Trouble In PA?

Posted Sep 02, 2011 at 1:53 AM by Maurice Berger

A survey by Muhlenberg College poll suggests that President Obama's reelection effort may be in trouble in Pennsylvania. His approval rate has dropped to 35% in the key swing state. The poll's analysis concludes that there may be room for movement in the poll: "31% of Pennsylvanians say their vote in November 2012 will depend on who the Republican candidate is. And Obama still slightly edges out an anonymous GOP contender 36 percent to 31%." Nevertheless, with the incumbent polling well below that 48% to 50% threshold, the numbers suggest a difficult race for Obama in 2012. 

Obama Perceived As Weak On Economy, Deficit

Posted Aug 22, 2011 at 1:40 AM by Maurice Berger

A new survey by Gallup reports that President Obama has dropped to a new low approval rate of 26% for his handling of the economy, down 11 points since it was last measured it in mid-May and well below his previous low of 35% in November 2010. He fares equally poorly on his his handling of the federal budget deficit (24%) and creating jobs (29%).

Gallup: Obama Approval Dips Below 40%

Posted Aug 15, 2011 at 1:02 AM by Maurice Berger

According to Sunday's presidential approval tracking poll, President Obama's approval rating has dropped to the lowest point of his presidency, and the first time it has dipped below 40%. Obama now stands at 39% approval, while a significant 54% of voters disapprove of his job performance.

Gallop: Record Low Approval Rating For The President

Posted Aug 01, 2011 at 1:24 AM by Maurice Berger

Going into this past weekend, Gallup reported on a very much unwanted milestone for the Obama administration: its newest tracking poll recorded a record low job approval rating for the president: 40%. While he hit his prior low--41%--several times over the past year, as recently as early June, the president approval number stood at 50%.

Gallup: Obama Has Sub-Majority Support in 10th Quater

Posted Jul 28, 2011 at 1:02 AM by Maurice Berger

According to an analysis by Gallup, "President Barack Obama earned a 46.8% average approval rating in his 10th quarter in office ending July 19, essentially unchanged from the 9th quarter and still above his record-low 7th quarter. The president's latest quarterly average is based on Gallup Daily tracking from April 20 through July 19. Across that time, his three-day rolling average approval ratings have been as high as 53% and as low as 42%."

" . . . Obama is in the company of several former elected presidents who averaged sub-50% approval during their 10th quarters in office. This includes three former presidents who won re-election -- Bill Clinton, Richard Nixon, and Ronald Reagan -- and one, Jimmy Carter, who lost. On the other hand, of the three presidents with exceptionally high average approvals at this stage, George H.W. Bush was ultimately defeated, while Dwight Eisenhower and George W. Bush prevailed." Here is Gallup's chart:

10th Quarter Gallup Job Approval Averages of Elected Presidents Who Sought Re-Election

Gallup Snapshot: Obama's Approval Numbers

Posted Jul 18, 2011 at 1:08 AM by Maurice Berger

 

According to the most recent analysis by Gallup, "President Barack Obama's job approval rating averaged 46% in June, down from 50% in May but similar to his ratings from February through April. Obama's strongest support continues to come from blacks (86%), adults aged 18 to 29 (54%), those living in the East (53%), and Hispanics (52%). This is in addition to 81% approval from fellow Democrats (as well as 75% from liberals and 55% from moderates, not shown here). Republicans (14%), conservatives (24%), whites (38%), seniors (39%), and those living in the South (40%) are the least likely to approve of Obama. PollTrack believes that the president average approval rating of 46% places him below the threshold for likely reelection. We will be watching these numbers closely as we move into the 2012 cycle.

American Optimism Dims, But Not About The President

Posted Jul 14, 2011 at 1:30 AM by Maurice Berger

Some bad news and some good news for the President. A new Reuters/Ipsos poll reports that the number of Americans who believe the country is on the wrong track rose to 63% this month. Yet, this negative world view does not apparently extend to President Obama, who continues to hold an approval rating in the poll at a respectable 49%.

Election 2012: Good News For Obama In Florida

Posted May 27, 2011 at 1:00 AM by Maurice Berger

The latest Quinnipiac poll in Florida has very good news for President Obama: approval rating in the state has improved significantly since early April -- before the death of Osama bin Laden. His numbers have flipped from a net negative approval of 44% to 52% to a net positive of 51% in favor and 43% opposed. Perhaps more significant: a majority of Florida voters now say Obama deserves reelection, 50% to 44%. The biggest movement is among independents: "Obama's improved job rating in Florida is largely due to a big swing among independent voters, from a negative 39% to 55% April 7 to a split 47% to 45% today."

President Continues To Enjoy Post-Bin Laden Bounce

Posted May 09, 2011 at 1:25 AM by Maurice Berger

As of Sunday morning, President Obama continues to enjoy an appreciable bounce in his approval rating following the successful mission to capture Osama Bin Laden. His aggregate approval rating comes in at 51.6%; his disapproval number 42.3%, for an aggregate advantage of +9.3%.

President Obama's Bounce

Posted May 05, 2011 at 1:03 AM by Maurice Berger

After months of hovering in the mid-40% range, President Obama has achieved a considerable bounce after the news of Osama Bin Laden's capture and death. The president's approval rating now stands at 51%; his disapproval number is 43.1%, for an aggregate advantage of +7.9%. Will this number hold up over time. Hard to say, but past history shows that a bounce achieved following a major foreign policy victory tends to be short-lived, especially if the economy is poor and unemployment high. Stay tuned for updates.

Stay Tuned For The President's Post Bin Laden Approval Numbers

Posted May 04, 2011 at 2:55 AM by Maurice Berger

Majority Disapprove of President's Handling Of Economy

Posted Apr 29, 2011 at 12:43 AM by Maurice Berger

A just released McClatchy-Marist Poll reports that 40% of Americans approve of how President Obama is dealing with the economy; 57% disapprove. These numbers represent the lowest marks of his presidency.

ABC News/Washington Post Poll: Obama Leads All GOP Challengers

Posted Apr 22, 2011 at 1:53 AM by Maurice Berger

A new ABC News/Washington Post Poll reports that even though President Obama's job approval rating has dropped to 47 percent, "he leads all potential GOP candidates. In a head-to-head matchups, Obama leads Romney by 4 points, 49-45 percent; Huckabee by 6 points, 50-44 percent; Trump by 12 points, 52-40 percent; Rep. Michele Bachmann, R-Minn., by 12 points; former Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty and Gingrich by 15 points each; and Palin by 17 points"

Gallup: Obama Approval Drops To Historic Low

Posted Apr 18, 2011 at 1:52 AM by Maurice Berger

According last Friday's Gallup Daily tracking poll, President Obama's approval rating now ties his historic low, at 41%. The president has hot this number twice before: in August and October 2010.

Presidential Approval/Disapproval Ratings Tied

Posted Mar 15, 2011 at 1:23 AM by Maurice Berger

After an upswing in support for President Obama in recent months, his approval rating is now tied at 47.6% with his disapproval rating in PollTrack's aggregate as of Sunday night.

Troubling Signs For Obama Reelection?

Posted Mar 11, 2011 at 1:01 AM by Maurice Berger

A just released Reuters/Ipsos poll suggests that there may be problems ahead for President Obama in his 2012 reelection bid: Americans now believe the country is on the wrong track by a huge margin--64% to 31%. The move is driven largely by the rise in gasoline prices due to Middle East turmoil. A perhaps even more ominous warning sign: the president's job approval dropped slightly to 49% from last month, but his approval rating among independent voters--a key continuency for his reelection chances--took a significant ten point dive to 37%.

Huckabee Ahead In South

Posted Mar 07, 2011 at 12:59 AM by Maurice Berger

A Winthrop University poll of southern states reports that Mike Huckabee leads his hypothetical rivals in the 2012 Republican presidential primary rivals.  Huckabee receives 21.9%, followed by Newt Gingrich at 12.9%, Sarah Palin at 8.7%, Mitt Romney at 6.9%, Tim Pawlenty at 6.2% and Ron Paul at 5.7%. The president's approval rating remains extremely low in the South, with just 38% approving and 51% disapproving.

Election 2012: Obama Approval, State By State

Posted Feb 28, 2011 at 1:30 AM by Maurice Berger

Want a sense of how President Obama is doing in the state by state hunt for electoral votes in 2012? A just released Gallup state survey finds President Obama's approval rating in 2010 ranged from 66% in Hawaii to just 28% in Wyoming. Gallup writes: "More broadly, the president enjoyed 50% or higher approval in a group of 12 traditionally Democratic states, plus the District of Columbia. At the same time, he suffered average approval rates of 43% or less in 18 other states, most of which are traditionally "red" states."Here is Gallup's chart:

.

State of the States: Obama Job Approval, 2010

Big GOP/Democratic Schism In Perceptions Of The President

Posted Feb 07, 2011 at 1:27 AM by Maurice Berger

The gap between GOP and Democratic perceptions remains high, according to a new Gallup survey. According to Gallup's analysis, President Obama is one of the most polarizing presidents in decades. Obama's approval ratings in 2010 showed a 68% point gap between the percentage of Democrats who approve of him and the number of Republicans approving -- the largest gap in party ratings of any president since President Eisenhower.

Increasing Number of Americans View Obama As Moderate

Posted Jan 21, 2011 at 1:29 AM by Maurice Berger

As Political Wire notes, a new Wall Street Journal/NBC News poll reveals a potentially significant change in public perception about President Obama: 40% see him as a moderate, as compared with 45% who see him as a liberal and 11% who view him as a conservative. The number of voters who see him as moderate is the highest ever for Obama in the WSJ/NBC poll.

President Obama's Approval Rating Up

Posted Jan 18, 2011 at 2:11 AM by Maurice Berger

According to two just released polls, the President's approval numbers have risen considerably. In both polls, his support among Democrats and Republicans remain unchanged. The difference: his numbers among independent voters, now up about 15%. A new ABC News/Washington Post poll reports that Obama's approval rating is at 54%, the highest in more than a year. CNN/Opinion Research poll finds Obama's approval rating is up five points to 53% "as a growing number of Americans consider him a strong leader who is tough enough to handle a crisis."

Is The President's Improved Approval Rating A Result Of More Positive Perceptions About The Economy?

Posted Jan 12, 2011 at 5:22 PM by Maurice Berger

Is President Obama's improved approval rating related to more positive public perceptions about the economy. A new Pew Research survey suggests that the answer might be yes: the poll reports that "the percentage saying they are hearing mostly bad news about the economy has dropped to its lowest point since the question was first asked in December 2008. . . Currently, 24% say they are hearing mostly bad news, down 15 points from 39% in early December. The proportion saying they are hearing a mix of good and bad news has jumped from 55% last month to 68% in the new survey."

President's Support Among Democrats High, But Uneven

Posted Jan 04, 2011 at 1:31 AM by Maurice Berger

According to a new Rasmussen survey, President Obama's support among Democrats remains high but uneven: "51% of all Democrats Strongly Approve of the president’s performance. When you include those who Somewhat Approve, the president received positive reviews from 82% of those in his party. Yet while 75% of Black Democrats Strongly Approve of the job he's doing as president, only 40% of White Democrats share that level of enthusiasm. That gap is much bigger than it was when Obama first took office in January 2009. During his first week as president, he earned Strong Approval from 88% of Black Democrats and 72% of White Democrats . . .  "

Rasmussen continues: "Among White Democratic men, the president now earns Strong Approval from just 33%. That figure is down from 70% during the president’s first week in office. From an ideological perspective, 60% of Liberal Democrats Strongly Approve of Obama’s performance. Only 14% of Conservative Democrats agree (down from 49% during Obama’s first week as president). Overall, including those who Somewhat Approve, the president’s job approval rating is now at 87% among Liberal Democrats and 42% among Conservative Democrats."

Presidential Approval Remains Steady But Does Not Increase Post-Lame Duck Congress

Posted Jan 03, 2011 at 2:42 AM by Maurice Berger

According to Gallup: President Barack Obama's job approval rating for Dec. 26-28 is 47%, was "down slightly from his post-midterm-election peak of 49% recorded last week, and close to his average level of approval since November. Currently, 46% of Americans disapprove of Obama's job performance. The general stability in Obama's approval rating since the Nov. 2 midterm elections -- in which his party lost majority control of the U.S. House of Representatives -- can be characterized as positive for Obama. Most presidents whose party suffers major midterm losses see their approval ratings fall. However, one might have expected Obama to see a bump in approval from the flurry of legislation passed in Congress prior to the Christmas recess. These include a bipartisan agreement to extend the Bush tax cits, repealing the military's "Don't Ask, Don't Tell" policy for gay service members, passing a major food safety bill, and Senate ratification of the START arms reduction treaty with Russia."

President's Obama's Support Among GOP Voters Improves

Posted Dec 23, 2010 at 2:18 AM by Maurice Berger

Acoording to a just released Gallup poll shows President Obama's approval rating--now overall at 46%--has improved among GOP voters: "Liberal Democrats' approval of Obama remained subdued, averaging 80% in the past week, similar to the 79% in the previous week and below the 88% found just prior to the midterm elections... In contrast, Obama's approval rating among moderate/liberal Republicans (including independents who lean Republican) has increased in December, rising from 20% to 29% in just the past two weeks. This is his highest level of support from moderate/liberal Republicans since May."

McClathchy-Marist: President Obama's Approval Rathing Drops To New Low

Posted Dec 13, 2010 at 1:05 AM by Maurice Berger

The latest McClatchy-Marist poll finds an erosion of President Obama's Democratic political base, probably the result of his tax compromise with the GOP. The president's approval rating has dropped to a new low, according to the polll: 42%. More: "Obama's standing among Democrats dropped from a month ago, with his approval rating falling to 74% from 83%, and his disapproval rating almost doubling, from 11% to 21% . . . . His position among independents remained virtually the same, with 39 percent approving and 52% disapproving. A month ago, it was 38% to 54%."

President Obama's Aggregate Approval Number Falls Below 45%

Posted Nov 29, 2010 at 3:00 AM by Maurice Berger

For more than five months straight, President Obama's aggregate approval number continues to remain lower than his disapproval number. As of Sunday evening, the president average approval has fallen below the 45% mark and is now at 44.6%. His disapproval is well over the 50% mark at 51.0%

President's Approval Remains Below Disapproval Number

Posted Nov 08, 2010 at 2:15 AM by Maurice Berger

For more than three months straight, President Obama's aggregate approval number remains lower than his disapproval number. As of Sunday evening, the president average approval rating shows a slight decline at 46.5%. His disapproval number holds steady at 49.5%.

Gallup: Presidential Approval Drops To New Low

Posted Oct 22, 2010 at 2:03 AM by Maurice Berger

According to Gallup, President Obama's approval rating averaged just 44.7% for the last quarter, a number that marks a new low since he took office in January 2009. Only 39% of Americans believe Obama deserves re-election in 2012; 54% believe he does not. Gallup notes, however, that both Bill Clinton and Ronald Reagan "were in similar poor standing at this point in their presidencies, and both recovered in time to win second terms as president."

Presidential Approval Continues to Decline, Disapproval Up

Posted Oct 18, 2010 at 12:55 AM by Maurice Berger

Nearing the three month mark of continued deficits in public approval, President Obama's aggregate approval number remains lower than his disapproval number. As of Sunday evening, the president average approval rating has declined further from last week and is now at 44.8% (from 45.2% last week). His disapproval number, has increased slightly in PollTrack's weekly analysis to 50.4% (from 49.2% last week).

Presidential Approval Declines Slightly

Posted Oct 11, 2010 at 1:51 AM by Maurice Berger

For more than two months straight, President Obama's aggregate approval number remains lower than his disapproval number. As of Sunday evening, the president average approval rating shows a slight decline at 45.2% (from 46.0% last week). His disapproval number, has increased slightly in PollTrack's weekly analysis to 49.2% (from 48.4% last week).

Presidential Approval Rating Improves

Posted Oct 04, 2010 at 1:43 AM by Maurice Berger

For more than two months straight, President Obama's aggregate approval number remains lower than his disapproval number. As of Sunday evening, the president average approval rating shows improvement at 46.0% (a +1% increase from last week). His disapproval number, has also declined in PollTrack's weekly analysis: 48.4% (a significant -3.0% decrease). Statistical blip or are the Democrats coming back to their party and president. Stay tuned.

Presidential Aggregate Disapproval Number At Record High

Posted Sep 27, 2010 at 2:09 AM by Maurice Berger

For more than two months straight, President Obama's aggregate approval number remains lower than his disapproval number. As of Sunday evening, the president average approval rating remains stable at 45.0% (a modest decline from last week). His disapproval number, however, is now at a record high in PollTrack's weekly analysis: 51.3%.

Presidential Disapproval Number Remains High

Posted Sep 20, 2010 at 2:15 AM by Maurice Berger

For two months straight, President Obama's aggregate approval number remains lower than his disapproval number. As of Sunday evening, the president average approval rating stands at 45.2% (a modest increase from last week). His disapproval number is 50.6% (a +1.0% increase from last week).

Presidential Approval Numbers Still Lower Than Disapproval

Posted Sep 13, 2010 at 12:39 AM by Maurice Berger

For the seventh straight week, President Obama's aggregate approval number remains considerably lower than his disapproval number. As of Sunday evening, the president average approval rating stands at 44.6% (a slight decline from last week). His disapproval number is 49.6% (a slight decline from last week).

Quinnipiac: Republicans Hold Edge On Generic Congressional Ballot

Posted Sep 10, 2010 at 1:57 AM by Maurice Berger

A just released Quinnipiac poll reports that the Republican Party continues to lead in the Generic Congressional Ballot, 42% to 37% margin. The same poll reports that President Obama continues to receive a negative 44% to 47% approval rating, statistically unchanged from his record-low two weeks ago.

Presidential Approval Takes A Dip, with Disapproval Up to 51%

Posted Sep 07, 2010 at 1:24 AM by Maurice Berger

The summer has not been good to the Obama administration. While the president's numbers showed slight improvement last week, he is back down again, and, for the sixth straight week, his aggregate approval number remains considerably lower than his disapproval number. As of Sunday evening, the president average approval rating is up to the mid-40s range, at 44.8% (a 2% decline from last week). His disapproval number is 51.0% (a 3% increase from last week).

Obama Job Approval Varies Among Religious Groups

Posted Sep 02, 2010 at 1:38 AM by Maurice Berger

According to a new Gallup analysis, "Muslim Americans continue to give President Barack Obama the highest job approval rating of any major religious group in the U.S., while Mormons give the president the lowest ratings." Here is Gallup's chart:

Obama Job Approval by Religious Group, First Half and Second Half of 2009, and First Seven Months of 2010

Presidential Approval Numbers Improve Slightly, Though Disapproval Still High

Posted Aug 30, 2010 at 2:22 AM by Maurice Berger

Continued slight improvement for the President this week, though, for the fifth straight week, his aggregate approval number remains considerably lower than his disapproval number. As of Sunday evening, the president average approval rating is up to the mid-40s range, at 46.0% (a slight decline from last week). His disapproval number is 48.2% (a slight decline from last week).

Presidential Approval Numbers Improve Slightly, Though Disapproval Still High

Posted Aug 23, 2010 at 1:13 AM by Maurice Berger

A slight improvement for the President this week. Still, for the fifth straight week, his aggregate approval number remains considerably lower than his disapproval number. As of Sunday evening, the president average approval rating is up to the mid-40s range, at 46.5% (a two-point improvement from last week). His disapproval number is 49.8% (a full point decline from last week).

Gallup: Presidential Approval At All-Time Low

Posted Aug 17, 2010 at 1:31 AM by Maurice Berger

Gallup's presidential approval tracking poll over the past few days has registered the lowest number yet for President Obama. As of Monday afternoon, Obama's approval number had dropped to the low-40s to 42% (with disapproval up to 50%, an all time high).

 

UPDATE: As of Tuesday afternoon, Obama's disapproval number ticked up a point to 51.0%. His approval number remains at 42%.

Presidential Approval Considerably Below Disapproval Number

Posted Aug 16, 2010 at 5:23 AM by Maurice Berger

For the forth straight week, President Obama's aggregate approval number remains considerably lower than his disapproval number. As of Sunday evening, the president average approval rating stands at 44.4% (a slight drop from last week). His disapproval number is 50.8% (almost a full point increase from last week).

Presidential Disapproval Remains Higher Than Approval Number

Posted Aug 09, 2010 at 1:54 AM by Maurice Berger

For the third straight week, President Obama's aggregate approval number has stalled, and his disapproval number considerably higher. As of Sunday evening, the president average approval rating stands at 44.8%. His disapproval number is 50.0%.

Presidential Disapproval Considerably Higher Than Approval Number

Posted Aug 02, 2010 at 2:16 AM by Maurice Berger

For the second straight week, President Obama's aggregate approval number remains at a precipitous new low, and his disapproval number is way up, at a new high. As of Sunday evening, the president average approval rating stands at 44.7%. His disapproval number is 50.0%.

First Lady Tops List Of Most Favorably Viewed Public Figures

Posted Jul 29, 2010 at 1:16 AM by Maurice Berger

According to a new Gallup survey, first lady Michelle Obama's "favorability rating among Americans tops that of several major political players who have called or might someday seek to call the White House home." Here is Gallup's chart:

2010 Favorability Ratings

President's Support Among Hispanics Remains High

Posted Jul 28, 2010 at 1:33 AM by Maurice Berger

A new AP/Univision poll reports that President Obama's stadning among Hispanics remains high, with 57% approving of his job performance. By contrast, his aggregate approval rating among all Americans, according to PollTrack's latest numbers, hovers at around 44%.

Presidential Approval At New Low, Disapproval at New High

Posted Jul 26, 2010 at 12:52 AM by Maurice Berger

Last week's stabilization of President Obama's approval rating may have been the calm before a brewing storm for the Democratic administration. This week's numbers tell a different story, as Obama's aggregate approval number drops to a precipitous new low, and his disapproval number creeps up to a new high. As of Sunday evening, the president average approval rating stands at 44.5%. His disapproval is way up at 50.3%.

Quinnipiac: Presidential Approval Drops To New Low

Posted Jul 22, 2010 at 1:44 AM by Maurice Berger

Yet another poll has recorded a record low approval rating for the president: a just released Quinnipiac poll reports that President Obama's job approval rating has dipped to 44%, his lowest rating to date in the survey. By a slight 39% to 36% margin, voters say that they would vote for an unnamed Republican rather than reelect Obama in 2012. And by a 48% to 40% margin, respondents say that the president does not deserve reelection in 2012.

President Obama's Approval Rating Improves

Posted Jul 19, 2010 at 1:34 AM by Maurice Berger

This week's aggregate approval rating for President Obama  shows a higher approval over disapproval number. PollTrack's weekly average reports the President's approval number is up from last week at 47.6%. As of Sunday evening, the president's aggregate disapproval number is 46.6%, a slight improvement from his recent numbers.

Presidential Approval At New Low

Posted Jul 15, 2010 at 1:19 AM by Maurice Berger

According to several polls, President Obama is passing through a rough patch vis-a-vis public opinion about his performance in office. Public Policy Polling survey reports that President Obama's approval rating has dropped to a new low: Now, 45% of voters approve of the job he's doing; 52% disapprove. PPP continues: "The two most troublesome things for Obama in his numbers at this point are his standing among white voters and independents. Whites now disapprove of Obama by nearly a 2:1 margin, with 62% giving him bad marks and only 35% saying he's doing a good job. With independents his approval is just 40% and 56% disapprove of his performance." Another poll by Bloomberg reports that Americans disapprove of President Obama's handling "of almost every major issue and are deeply pessimistic about the nation's direction, offering a bullish environment for Republicans in the November congressional elections . . . . A majority or plurality disapproves of Obama's management of the economy, health care, the budget deficit, the overhaul of financial market regulations and the oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico. In addition, almost 6 in 10 respondents say the war in Afghanistan is a lost cause."

Presidential Disapproval Still Higher Than Approval Rating

Posted Jul 12, 2010 at 1:17 AM by Maurice Berger

For the fourth consecutive week, President Obama's approval remains lower than his disapproval rating according to PollTrack's weekly aggregate. His average approval number, as of Sunday evening, is now somewhat improved at 47.5%; still, his disapproval number higher, at 48.5%.

President Obama Behind With Independents

Posted Jul 08, 2010 at 1:32 AM by Maurice Berger

In another ominous sign for the President and Democrats in general in this midterm election year, the latest Gallup tracking poll finds President Obama's approval rating is just 38% among independents. This marks  the first time approval of Obama among independents has dropped below 40%. A year ago, his standing among these voters was 56%, +18% higher than today's numbers. 

Presidential Disapproval Remains Higher Than Approval Rating

Posted Jul 05, 2010 at 4:44 PM by Maurice Berger

For the third consecutive week, President Obama's approval remains lower than his disapproval rating according to PollTrack's weekly aggregate. His average approval number, as of Sunday evening, is 46.3%; his disapproval number is 48.6%.

Presidential Disapproval Higher Than Approval

Posted Jun 28, 2010 at 12:04 AM by Maurice Berger

For the second straight week, President Obama's approval continues to trend lower than his disapproval rating according to PollTrack's weekly aggregate. His average approval number, as of Sunday evening, is 46.2%; his disapproval number is 47.4%. Once gain this week, the most recent daily tracking polling shows his approval number migrating slightly downward, but with his aggregate disapproval number creeping downward, as well.

President Obama's Approval Continues to Trend Downward

Posted Jun 21, 2010 at 1:48 AM by Maurice Berger

President Obama's approval continues to trend lower than his disapproval rating according to PollTrack's weekly aggregate. His average approval number, as of Sunday evening, is 47.0%; his disapproval number is 49.0%. Once gain this week, the most recent daily tracking polling shows his approval number migrating downward (with disapproval as much as 15% higher than approval).

Obama Approval Lower Than Disaaproval Rating

Posted Jun 14, 2010 at 2:05 AM by Maurice Berger

President Obama's approval rating is now slightly lower than his disapproval rating according to PollTrack's weekly aggregate. His average approval number, as of Sunday evening, is 47.3%; his disapproval number is 47.8%. Once gain this week, the most recent daily tracking polling shows his approval trending downward (with disapproval from 3% to 7% higher than approval).

Obama In Trouble With Washington Insiders Over Oil Spill?

Posted Jun 09, 2010 at 1:35 AM by Maurice Berger

A new Political Insiders Poll reports that among political/Washington insiders, President Obama is fairing poorly in his response to the Gulf of Mexico oil spill: Democrats give him an average grade of C-; Republicans an average grade of D-. The problem may extend well beyond the political class to the electorate at large, as a number of polls measuring the president approval rating this week have shown a discernible decline this week.

Presidential Approval/Disapproval Now Tied

Posted Jun 07, 2010 at 1:26 AM by Maurice Berger

President Obama's aggregate approval number is now exactly equal to his disapproval number. As of Sunday evening, the president's aggregate disapproval number is 46.8%; his approval number is 46.8%. The weeks ahead may prove difficult politically for the president: the most recent polling shows his approval trending downward (with disapproval now higher than approval).

President Obama's Approval And Disappoval Numbers Nearly Tied

Posted Jun 01, 2010 at 1:30 AM by Maurice Berger

President Obama's approval number is nearly equal to his disapproval number, an increase of support over the past two weeks. As of Sunday evening, the president's aggregate disapproval number is 46.3%; his approval number is 46.8%, a virtual tie.

Rasmussen: President Obama's Approval Rating At Record Low

Posted May 26, 2010 at 12:54 AM by Maurice Berger

Rasmussen's daily tracking survey for Tuesday 25 May reports the lowest approval rating for President Obama thus far: 42%. While Rasmussen's disapproval number has been consistently higher than most other polls throughout the last year, their approval number has hovered at or near PollTrack's polling average. Does this new low suggest a trend? Or does it represent an anomaly? Stay tuned.

Obama Disapproval Higher Than Approval Rating

Posted May 24, 2010 at 12:39 AM by Maurice Berger

Despite a spate of relatively good news for the administration, PollTrack's weekly average indicates that President Obama's approval number have fallen BELOW his disapproval number. As of Sunday evening, the president's aggregate disapproval number is 48.3%; his approval number is 46.0%, a decline from the past few weeks.

President Obama's Approval Remains Steady

Posted May 10, 2010 at 1:39 AM by Maurice Berger

This week's aggregate approval rating for President Obama  continues to show a higher approval over disapproval number. PollTrack's weekly average reports the President's approval number down from last week at 48.2%. As of Sunday evening, the president's aggregate disapproval number is 44.7%, a one-point improvement from last week.

President Obama's Approval Number Up

Posted May 03, 2010 at 1:25 AM by Maurice Berger

This week's aggregate approval rating for President Obama shows marked improvement. PollTrack's weekly average reports the President's approval number at 49.0%. As of Sunday evening, the president's aggregate disapproval number is 45.8%, a significant improvement from last week.

Administration Victories Not Translating Into Improvement in Presidential Approval

Posted Apr 27, 2010 at 1:26 AM by Maurice Berger

Oddly, a string of political victories for the President--from dramatic passage of the health care bill to improvement in many economic indicators--is not translating into improved approval numbers for Obama. A new Citizen Opinion/Democracy Corps poll, for example, reports "a significant drop in the proportion thinking the country is off on the wrong track and a rise in the number who think the economy is improving." Yet, this positive assessment is  "not producing a change in political thinking. The Republican 7-point advantage on the economy is unchanged this month. There is no growth in people believing Obama's economic policies have produced a better economy." Indeed, the President's aggregate approval number has never been lower. This pattern is somewhat unusual, given the public's tendency to translate an improving economy into increased support for the administration in power. Stay tuned.

 

Obama Disapproval Higher Than Approval

Posted Apr 26, 2010 at 12:56 AM by Maurice Berger

PollTrack's weekly average indicates that President Obama's approval number have fallen BELOW his disapproval number. As of Sunday evening, the president's aggregate disapproval number is 47.3%; his approval number is 46.3%, a slight decline from last week.

Obama Approval Levels Off To Tie

Posted Apr 19, 2010 at 12:58 AM by Maurice Berger

PollTrack's weekly average indicates that President Obama's approval numbers have leveled off to a tie. As of Sunday evening, the president's aggregate disapproval number equals his approval--both now stand at 48.6%, a slight improvement from last week.

Further Decline In Obama Approval

Posted Apr 12, 2010 at 2:12 AM by Maurice Berger

With the modest health care bounce in President Obama's approval numbers gone, PollTrack's weekly average indicates a downward trend in his approval numbers. As of Sunday evening, the president's aggregate disapproval number is higher than his approval. His approval now stands at 46.1%; his disapproval, at 47.3%. The most recent polls actually indicate a more precipitous drop, with the President's approval number -3.4% lower than his approval number. Stay tuned. 

Obama Approval: The Health Care Bounce Is Gone

Posted Apr 05, 2010 at 2:17 AM by Maurice Berger

Last week it appeared that President Obama received a slight bounce in his approval numbers, a week after in historic victory in congress. As of Sunday evening, it looks like the bounce is gone. The president's aggregate approval stands at 47.0%; his disapproval, almost equal at 46.6%. A new CBS News Poll actually shows the president sinking to an all time low approval rating of 44%,

Obama Approval: A Slight Bounce For Health Care Victory

Posted Mar 29, 2010 at 12:58 AM by Maurice Berger

It does not appear that President Obama has received more than a slight improvement in his approval numbers, a week after in historic victory in congress. Last Sunday, Obama's three-day rolling average reported a 46% approval and 48% disapproval rating. As of this Sunday evening, the numbers are reversed 48.0% approve to 46.5% disapprove--an aggregate +3.5% improvement in his overall performance numbers. The two daily tracking polls--Rasmussen and Gallup--show no movement at all (with a slight decline in the latter survey). The president's numbers in the coming weeks will give us a clearer picture of the effect, if any, of his historic victory on his approval rating.

President Obama's Approval/Disapproval Tied

Posted Mar 22, 2010 at 1:36 AM by Maurice Berger

As of Sunday evening, President Obama's approval and disapproval numbers are tied--at 47%--according to PollTrack's weekly average.

Gallup: President Obama's Disapproval Higher Than Approval Rating

Posted Mar 19, 2010 at 1:16 AM by Maurice Berger

For the first time, Gallup reports that President Obama's disapproval rating is higher than his approval number. As of Thursday afternoon, Obama's three-day rolling average was 46% approve, 48% disapprove of his job performance as president.

President Obama's Approval Holding Steady

Posted Mar 15, 2010 at 2:23 AM by Maurice Berger

President Obama's approval rating has stabilized this week. His aggregate approval rating now stands at 48.6%. His disapproval number, however, continues to remain fairly high at 47.6%.

President Obama's Approval Up Slightly

Posted Mar 08, 2010 at 1:44 AM by Maurice Berger

President Obama's approval rating stabilized this week, improving considerably from last week. His aggregate approval rating now stands at 49.3%. His disapproval number remains fairly high, however, and now stands at 47.3%.

Obama Falling Behind in Purple States

Posted Mar 02, 2010 at 1:57 AM by Maurice Berger

In a series sign of weakness for the Democrats in the upcoming midterm elections, Tom Jensen reports that President Obama at present "has a negative approval rating in every state he flipped from the Bush column to his in 2008. In each of those places his level of support is now in the 44-46% range. It's probably a good thing he doesn't have to run for reelection this year. He can only hope things start turning around for him once the midterms are in the rear view mirror, much as they did for Bill Clinton."

President Obama's Approval Rating Falls, Disapproval Up

Posted Mar 01, 2010 at 1:10 AM by Maurice Berger

President Obama's approval rating dropped noticeably this week. His aggregate approval rating now stands at 46.6%. Even more alarming for the president is the sharp rise of his disapproval number, now higher than his approval score at 48%.

Obama Disaaproval Up This Week

Posted Feb 22, 2010 at 1:40 AM by Maurice Berger

President Obama's overall approval/disapproval rating declined this week, his disapproval number rising considerably from last week. His aggregate approval rating now stands at 47.5%. His disapproval number is now at 47.3%, almost equal to his positive number.

CNN/Opinion Research Poll: Majority of Americans Say President Does Not Deserve Reelection

Posted Feb 17, 2010 at 2:12 AM by Maurice Berger

In numbers that cannot be reassurinf to President Obama, 52% of Americans in a CNN/Opinion Research poll released Tuesday said that he does not deserve reelection in 2012. "44% of all Americans said they would vote to reelect the president in two and a half years, less than the slight majority who said they would prefer to elect someone else. Obama faces a 44-52 deficit among both all Americans and registered voters . . . . Four percent had no opinion."

President Obama 's Approval Rating Stabilizes

Posted Feb 16, 2010 at 2:27 AM by Maurice Berger

President Obama's approval rating stabilized this week, improving considerably from last week. His aggregate approval rating now stands at 48.7%. His disapproval number has dropped considerably, as well, and now stands at 44%.

President Obama's Approval Drops Sharply

Posted Feb 07, 2010 at 5:09 PM by Maurice Berger

President Obama's approval rating has taken a serious dive this week, suggesting that his modest State of the Union bounce was very short lived. His aggregate approval rating nows stands at 46.3%. Even more alarming for the president is the sharp rise of his disapproval number, now at an all-time high of 49%.

Gallup: Obama Back Up to 50% Approval

Posted Feb 03, 2010 at 1:41 AM by Maurice Berger

A week of relatively positive press following the President's State of the union address has helped his approval rating, according to Gallup: "President Barack Obama's job approval rating has jumped up to 51% in the most recent three-day Gallup Daily tracking. This follows 11 straight days of Gallup reporting in which Obama's approval rating was below the 50% mark. Here is Gallup's chart posted on Monday:

President Obama Job Approval -- Gallup Daily Tracking for January 2010

President's Approval Up

Posted Feb 01, 2010 at 1:11 AM by Maurice Berger

The President Obama's State of the Union address appears to have given him a slight lift in approval numbers this week: His approval number has risen this week, according to PollTrack's weekly average. As of Sunday evening, his rating is as follows: APPROVE: 49.0%. Also of note: the president's disapproval has now fallen below his approval number to 47.8%. It will be interesting to see if the increase in approval will be sustained over the next few weeks.

Presidential Approval/Disapproval A Problem?

Posted Jan 29, 2010 at 1:32 AM by Maurice Berger

In polling leading up to Wednesday's state of the union address, President Obama's disapproval rating is showing signs of eclipsing his approval rating (a problem demonstrated by Monday's weekly PollTrack rating). In two polls, Obama's disapproval is higher (Rasmussen, CNN Opinion Research) in two others, the numbers are more or less even (NPR and Gallup). Stay tuned. Monday's average may gives us a sense if Wednesday's national address has approved the president's standing.

Obama Approval Down, Disapproval Up

Posted Jan 25, 2010 at 1:51 AM by Maurice Berger

After several weeks of bad news--including the Democrat's devastating loss in Massachusetts--President Obama's approval number has fallen this week, according to PollTrack's weekly average. As of Sunday evening, his rating is as follows: APPROVE: 47.0%. Extremely alarming for the president: the president's disapproval has crept up WELL above his approval number, now at an alarming 50.5%.

Obama's Decline In Public Approval: How Serious A Problem For Democrats in 2010

Posted Jan 22, 2010 at 1:35 AM by Maurice Berger

Republican pollster Frank Luntz fires a warning shot to Democrats in his analysis of the president's declining popularity. While his overall opinion of--and some of his ideas about--the seriousness of the dilemma now facing Democrats may be colored by ideology, two of his points about looming red flags are backed up by the results of a number of non-partisan public opinion surveys:


According to Gallup, Obama has suffered the greatest fall in approval of any elected president since the company started ongoing tracking during the Eisenhower administration. Obama came into office with the approval of two out of every three voters (67 percent) but ended his first year with just half the electorate (50 percent) offering a positive evaluation of his performance. Only the unelected Gerald Ford fared worse in the court of public opinion.


While the Republican brand has barely moved since its electoral disasters of 2006 and 2008 and remains unpopular, Democratic popularity has collapsed as well. Most surveys now have the GOP even or even slightly ahead in the generic congressional ballot, and Americans now see the Republicans to be as good if not better in handling the economy.

What Luntz fails to point out, however, is that the Republican brand is suffering as well: A new Public Policy Polling poll reports that only 19% of voters nationally are happy with the direction of the Republican Party, compared to 56% who are unhappy with it. Even more surprising--GOP voters are not particularly happy with the direction of their own party: just 35% support the direction of the party; 38% say they are unhappy.

Was Health Care A Miscalulation?

Posted Jan 21, 2010 at 1:09 AM by Maurice Berger

Was the Obama administration's emphasis on health care over jobs "a colossal miscalculation" of public sentiment and needs. Charlie Cook, in this interesting and compelling analysis, tied the drop in support for the administration to its year-long health care campaign, undertaken during a period when jobs were withering away and the unemployment rates was rising to crisis proportions: "Honorable and intelligent people can disagree over the substance and details of what President Obama and congressional Democrats are trying to do on health care reform and climate change. But nearly a year after Obama's inauguration, judging by where the Democrats stand today, it's clear that they have made a colossal miscalculation. The latest unemployment and housing numbers underscore the folly of their decision to pay so much attention to health care and climate change instead of focusing on the economy "like a laser beam," as President Clinton pledged to do during his 1992 campaign. Although no one can fairly accuse Obama and his party's leaders of ignoring the economy, they certainly haven't focused on it like a laser beam." For the entire analysis, click here.

President Obama's Job Approval Numbers Up

Posted Jan 18, 2010 at 1:58 AM by Maurice Berger

President Obama's approval numbers are up this week. PollTrack's average as of Sunday night: 49.2% APPROVE to 45.3% DISAPPROVE. Also of note, the President's disapproval number has dropped considerably from last week: His approval rating is now +4% higher than his disapproval number.

Obama Approval Moves Downward

Posted Jan 11, 2010 at 1:42 AM by Maurice Berger

President Obama's approval number has dropped by a point this week, according to PollTrack's weekly average. As of Sunday evening, his rating is as follows: APPROVE: 47.5%. The president's disapproval number is now higher than his approval, a possibly alarming development for the administration. The president's disapproval number has also crept up from last week to 48.5%. 

Gallup: Obama At 50% At Start of Second Year

Posted Jan 07, 2010 at 1:46 AM by Maurice Berger

Gallup notes that President Obama begins his second year as president with 50% of Americans approving and 44% disapproving of his overall job performance: "This is well below the 68% approval rating Obama received in his first few days as president, and matches his average for all of December -- which included many days when public support for him fell slightly below that important symbolic threshold. . . . Obama's initial approval rating in his second year as president is among the lowest for elected presidents since Dwight Eisenhower. Only Ronald Reagan -- who, like Obama, took office during challenging economic times -- began his second year in office with a lower approval score (49%). However, Obama's disapproval rating is slightly higher than Reagan's was (44% vs. 40%)." Of course, as PollTrack notes, Reagan went on to become one of the most popular US presidents in the 20th-Century. So at this early stage, it's hard to tell if these numbers are in any way significant.

Obama Approval Stable

Posted Jan 04, 2010 at 2:07 AM by Maurice Berger

President Obama's approval number remains stable this week, according to PollTrack's weekly average. As of Sunday evening, his rating remains the same as last week: APPROVE: 48.5%. The president's approval number remains higher than his disapproval. The bad news: his disapproval number has crept up from last week to 47.5%. PollTrack also notes that this week's average may be skewed by the Christmas and New Year holiday season--polling is irregular and sporadic during this time--and daily trackers that take a second break through this coming Monday.

Hillary Clinton More Popular Than The President

Posted Dec 30, 2009 at 2:15 AM by Maurice Berger

According to a recent survey by the Clarus Research Group, Secretary of State Hillary Clinton maintains a higher approval rating as Obama's secretary of State than Obama as president. The poll of registered voters self-identifed as "news watchers," reported Obama's approval rating at 51% (to 45% disapproval). According to CQ Politics analysis of the poll: "Clinton -- who lived in the White House as first lady to President Bill Clinton and later was a U.S. senator from New York -- enjoyed an approval rating as secretary of State of 75 percent to 21 percent negative. Clinton's performance in her Cabinet post received the approval of 96 percent of the Democratic respondents. But what is truly remarkable is that Clinton, who had very few Republican fans as first lady, senator or presidential candidate, received approval from 57 percent of Republican respondents, as well as 65 percent of independents."

Obama Approval Down Slightly

Posted Dec 28, 2009 at 2:49 AM by Maurice Berger

President Obama's approval number has fallen slightly this week, according to PollTrack's weekly average. As of Sunday evening, his rating is as follows: APPROVE: 48.5%. The president's approval number remains higher than his disapproval. The bad news: his disapproval number has crept up from last week to 46.8%. PollTrack also notes that this week's average may be skewed by the Christmas holiday--voters distracted by family, celebration, and year-end exhaustion--and daily trackers that take a break through this coming Monday.

Breakdown Of Obama's Approval Rating

Posted Dec 22, 2009 at 1:12 AM by Maurice Berger

A Pew Research Center survey offers a breakdown of Obama's approval status by race, age, gender, and political affiliation. At years end, it offers a snapshop of where the President stands with various groups. Fully 88% of non-Hispanic African Americans approve of Obama’s job performance, compared with 39% of non-Hispanic whites. Obama continues to draw broad support from his Democratic base: comparable percentages of liberal Democrats (85%) and conservative and moderate Democrats (82%) approve of the way he is handling his job. By contrast, Republicans overwhelmingly disapprove (19% approve vs. 73% disapprove); among conservative Republicans just 12% approve of Obama’s job performance while 82% disapprove.

Obama Approval Up Slightly

Posted Dec 21, 2009 at 1:23 AM by Maurice Berger

President Obama's approval number has risen slightly this week, according to PollTrack's weekly average. As of Sunday evening, his rating is as follows: APPROVE: 49.7%. The good news for the president: his approval number is now higher than his disapproval. The bad news: his disapproval number has crept up slightly from last week to 46%. 

Obama's Approval Below 50% But Stable

Posted Dec 14, 2009 at 1:34 AM by Maurice Berger

The downward slide in President Obama's approval numbers appears to have abated, according to PollTrack's weekly average. As of Sunday evening, his rating is as follows: APPROVE: 48.6%, DISAPPROVE: 45.5%. The good news for the president: his approval number is now higher than his disapproval. The bad news, per Tom Bevan: six of the seven major national surveys released this week recorded an all-time low job approval rating for Obama.

Second Poll + PollTrack Average Reports President Obama's Disapproval Higher Than Approval

Posted Dec 07, 2009 at 1:29 AM by Maurice Berger

For several months, Rasmussen Reports has shown a disapproval number that has been consistently higher than President's Obama's approval rating. Their number, based on a fairly conservative likely voter model, has stood alone. Now a second polling organization, for the first time, reports a similar result: According to a CNN/Opinion Research national survey released Friday, 48% of Americans approve of the job Obama's doing as president, with 50 percent disapproving. The 48% approval is a 7 point drop in approval from last month. "The poll indicates that the biggest drop in approval comes from non college educated white voters," says CNN Polling Director Keating Holland. "That's one indication among many that Obama's growing unpopularity may be more related to unemployment and the poor economy."

PollTrack's own poll average, as of Sunday evening, indicates that the president disapproval rating is higher than his approval number: Approve: 48% Disapprove: 48.6%.

Will Obama Score A Turnaround in January

Posted Dec 02, 2009 at 1:19 AM by Maurice Berger

Will the president's sagging approval numbers start moving up soon? Jacob Weisberg, writing in Slate, suggests that the answer may be yes: "About one thing, left and right seem to agree these days: Obama hasn't done anything yet. . . . This conventional wisdom about Obama's first year isn't just premature—it's sure to be flipped on its head by the anniversary of his inauguration on Jan. 20. If, as seems increasingly likely, Obama wins passage of a health care reform a bill by that date, he will deliver his first State of the Union address having accomplished more than any other postwar American president at a comparable point in his presidency. This isn't an ideological point or one that depends on agreement with his policies. It's a neutral assessment of his emerging record—how many big, transformational things Obama is likely to have made happen in his first 12 months in office."

 

President Obama's Approval Rating Remains Below 50%

Posted Nov 30, 2009 at 12:50 AM by Maurice Berger

For a second straight week, President Obama's positive and negative numbers in the PollTrack average are nearly equal. And his positive approval rating remains below the 50% mark (though it's up a point from last week). As of Sunday evening, 48.5% of voters approve of the way President Obama is handling his job; 47.5%, disapprove.

President Obama 's Approval Rating Drops Below 50%

Posted Nov 23, 2009 at 2:04 AM by Maurice Berger

Presidential approval ratings ebb and flow. At any given point a low--or high--rate of approval may reflect little about a president's overall approval over time. At this point in their tenure both Ronald Reagan and Bill Clinton were hovering in the low to mid-40s (both ended their presidencies with relatively high approval numbers). Still, this week's numbers suggest that our current president has moved well past his honeymoon with voters: for the first time, his positive and negative numbers in the PollTrack average are equal. And his positive approval rating has dropped well below 50%. As of Sunday evening, 47.3% of voters approve of the way President Obama is handling his job; 47.3%, disapprove.

Americans Like President Obama More Than His Policies

Posted Nov 20, 2009 at 1:34 AM by Maurice Berger

According to a Quinnipiac University survey, Americans like President Obama more than his policies: "Three-quarters of American voters--74%--like President Barack Obama as a person, but only 47% like most of his policies, and voters disapprove 51 - 35 percent of the health care overhaul passed by the House of Representatives which he has endorsed. . . . Given four choices to describe their feelings about the President, American voters say:

  • 46 percent like Obama as a person and like most of his policies;
  • 28 percent like him as a person, but don't like most of his policies;
  • 1 percent like his policies, but don't like him as a person;
  • 20 percent don't like him or his policies.

'Most Americans like President Barack Obama and might like to have a beer with him,' said Peter Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute. 'But millions of voters who sided with him last November because they thought he would bring change to Washington aren't crazy about the kind of change he is trying to bring.'"

Obama's Approval Slightly Higher

Posted Nov 16, 2009 at 2:07 AM by Maurice Berger

Obama's overall approval rating has risen in the last week. According to PollTrack's average, the president's positive rating outpaces his negative--52.0% to 41.75%.

Health Care: A Net Plus For Obama?

Posted Nov 10, 2009 at 1:33 AM by Maurice Berger

One thing PollTrack will be monitoring very closely over the next few months is the relationship between the president's approval rating and the success or failure of the health care legislation currently working its way through congress. At the moment, high unemployment numbers and the looming deficit has taken their toll on independent voters--their loss from the Democratic fold representing the single most important factor in the party's losses in Virginia and New Jersey last week. Will the success of health care legislation--such as last Saturday's victory in the house--help to offset dissatisfaction among independent voters? The answer may well spell a continued Democratic majority next November or Republican gains. Stay tuned for analysis of this issue relative to the president's overall standing with voters.

Obama Approval Up Slightly

Posted Nov 09, 2009 at 1:02 AM by Maurice Berger

As of Sunday evening, PollTrack reports a slight increase in President Obama's aggregate approval rating. 51.8% now have a positive view of the president's performance; 45.0% a negative one. Obama's negative rating, which has slowly increased each week over the past few months, continues to represent a trouble spot for the president.

Obama's Approval Down Slightly

Posted Nov 02, 2009 at 1:42 AM by Maurice Berger

As of Sunday evening, President Obama's aggregate approval rating has decreased a full percentage point from last week's aggregate number, according to PollTrack's latest calculation: Approve: 50.5% to Disapprove: 43.2%.

Obama Approval Up This Week

Posted Oct 26, 2009 at 1:52 AM by Maurice Berger

As of Sunday evening, President Obama's aggregate approval rating has increased somewhat over last's week's 50.3% aggregate number, according to PollTrack's latest calculation: Approve: 51.5% to Disapprove: 44.5%. Once again, the President's approval number, but now elevated disapproval rating suggests the possibility of trouble ahead for the administration.

Obama Quarterly Approval Decline Worst On Record

Posted Oct 22, 2009 at 2:44 AM by Maurice Berger

"In Gallup Daily tracking that spans Barack Obama's third quarter in office (July 20 through Oct. 19), the president averaged a 53% job approval rating. That is down sharply from his prior quarterly averages, which were both above 60%. In fact, the 9-point drop in the most recent quarter is the largest Gallup has ever measured for an elected president between the second and third quarters of his term, dating back to 1953. One president who was not elected to his first term -- Harry Truman -- had a 13-point drop between his second and third quarters in office in 1945 and 1946." Here is Gallup's Chart:

 

Change in Presidential Job Approval Averages, Second to Third Quarter in Office, Elected Presidents

Obama Approval Drops Slightly

Posted Oct 19, 2009 at 2:06 AM by Maurice Berger

As of Sunday evening, President Obama's aggregate approval rating has dropped slightly, according to PollTrack's latest calculation: Approve: 50.3% to Disapprove: 45%. What may be more telling about these numbers is not the President's approval number, but his consistently rising disapproval rating, now at an all time high since he took office.

Of Five Major US Religions, Jews Are Obama's Biggest Supporters

Posted Oct 06, 2009 at 2:56 AM by Maurice Berger

Tracking the relative support of the president in the month of September, Gallup reports that 64% of U.S. Jews approve of the job Barack Obama is doing as president, significantly higher than the 52% average among national adults in September, and also higher than was seen among Catholics, Protestants, and Mormons. Only nonreligious Americans equal Jews in their support for the president. Here is Gallup's chart:

 

President Barack Obama Job Approval, by Religion -- September 2009

Obama Approval Down Slightly

Posted Oct 05, 2009 at 2:05 AM by Maurice Berger

As of Sunday evening, PollTrack reports a slight drop in President Obama's aggregate approval rating. 50.6% now have a positive view of the president's performance; 44.3% a negative one. Obama's negative rating represents a significant increase from last Sunday's number.

Slight Uptick For President Obama's Approval Rating

Posted Sep 28, 2009 at 1:30 AM by Maurice Berger

As of Sunday evening, PollTrack reports a slight uptick in President Obama's aggregate approval rating. 51.5% now have a positive view of the president's performance; 41.5% a negative one.

White Voters Now Disapprove of Obama

Posted Sep 25, 2009 at 1:48 AM by Maurice Berger

One statistic in a new Public Policy Polling survey suggests that there is now a massive racial divide in the way Americans view President Barack Obama: "50% of whites disapprove of Obama’s performance compared to 45% approving but his overall numbers are solid thank to an 89% rating with African Americans and a 64% one with Hispanics." Given Obama's inability in Election 2008 to garner more than 43.5% of the white vote (to McCain's 57%)--statistically equal to his present-day performance with this demographic--PollTrack suggests that this number should not be surprising. The problem for Obama, however, is the steady decline of support among white voters during his tenture as president relative to voters of color, who continue to enthusiastically support him.

President Obama's Approval Rating Falls to 50.6%

Posted Sep 24, 2009 at 1:23 AM by Maurice Berger

It appears that President Obama's speech to a joint session of Congress and his media blitz this past weekend have had littlr effect on his overall approval ratings. Indeed, as of Wednesday evening, his number have dropped back to early September levels. His positive rating now hovers at the 50% mark: 50.6% to 43.6% disapproval.

Presidential Approval Update: Obama Holds Steady At 52.4%

Posted Sep 21, 2009 at 1:31 AM by Maurice Berger

As of Sunday evening, PollTrack's President Obama's average presidential approval rating holds steady at 52.4%. His negative number is 41%.

Obama Approval Holds Steady at 51% Mark

Posted Sep 14, 2009 at 1:42 AM by Maurice Berger

As of Sunday evening, with all tracking poll data gather AFTER President Obama's speech to the nation on health care on Wednesday, his PollTrack aggregate approval number holds stead at 51.3%. His negative rating--45.6%--still remains high relative to his numbers earlier in his presidency.  So far, it appears that his speech has had only a modest effect on his standing with voters.

Obama's Approval Rating Markedly Improves

Posted Sep 05, 2009 at 4:35 AM by Maurice Berger

President Obama's approval numbers have improved considerably over last week, according to PollTrack's latest analysis of polling data. Last week, his support dropped below the 50% mark in PollTrack's aggregate of public opinion polls, the first time in his young presidency. As of Friday evening, Obama's approval jumped +4.5 points, to 53%, with 41.3% disapproving.

Majority Of Independent Voters Disaaprove of Obama's Performance

Posted Sep 02, 2009 at 1:34 AM by Maurice Berger

With Republicans and Democrats sharply divided, the balance of political power often falls into the hands of voters who remain independent of either party. Without their support it is virtually impossible to win national elections or maintain strong approval rating. In what might be the most ominous sign of eroding political support in Obama's still young presidency, a new CNN/Opinion Research survey reports that "a majority of independent voters disapprove of how Barack Obama's handling his job as president . . . 53% of independents questioned [in the poll] released Tuesday say they disapprove of how Obama's handling his duties in the White House, with 43% in approval. That result marks the first time in a CNN poll that a majority of independents give the president's performance a thumbs-down."

President Obama 's Popularity Drops to Lowest Point in PollTrack Average

Posted Aug 31, 2009 at 1:00 AM by Maurice Berger

As of Sunday night, President Obama's approval rating has dropped to 48.5% (to 47.0% negative), the lowest numbers of his young presidency. Rasmussen has Obama's approval number at 47% (among "likely voters"); Gallup has it at 50%. PollTrack will be watching these numbers carefully, especially noting whether they increase after the President returns from vacation (a news down-time that may adversely effect his popularity). Last week, the Gallup organization warned that President Obama's approval rating could wind up representing one of the fastest declines in presidential approval since World War II.

Democratic Party Favorability Slides Downward

Posted Aug 21, 2009 at 1:09 AM by Maurice Berger

The American voter is much less in love now with the Democratic then in the period of Barack Obama's inauguration. According to a new Pew Research Survey: "Americans are in an increasingly sour mood about Washington. Barack Obama’s approval ratings continue to inch downward and a growing proportion of Americans (63%) think that the president and Republican leaders are not working together to deal with important issues facing the nation; in June, 50% said the two sides were not cooperating. While more people continue to blame Republican leaders than blame Obama, the percentage saying the president is at fault (17%) is higher now than in June (12%) and much higher than in February (7%)

In the same vein, the new poll finds favorable ratings of the Democratic Party have declined sharply since spring. Just 49% now say they have a favorable view of the Democratic Party. This compares with a 59% favorable rating for the party as recently as April and 62% shortly before Obama took office in January. Opinion of the Republican Party, which stands at 40%, has not changed all year."

Obama's PollTrack Approval Rating Average Drops To New Low

Posted Aug 19, 2009 at 12:48 AM by Maurice Berger

In an alarming sign for a the new administration, Barack Obama's PollTrack approval rating average has dropped to a new low. As of Monday evening, the President's approval rating hovers around the 50% mark--51.2% to 43% disapproval.

Compared To Other Recent President's Obama Is Doing Well

Posted Jun 01, 2009 at 2:30 AM by Maurice Berger

Gallup publishes this chart, which compares the approval ratings of president's over the past sixty-years in May of their first year in office. As you can see, only three other president's have done better than Obama, though all but two came in over the 60% mark. Kennedy and Eisenhower's approvals were in the stratosphere, at 77% and 74% respectively. Reagan is third at 68%; Obama not far behind at 65%. The numbers for Lyndon Johnson are not reported (perhaps because he was not elected to his first term, having assumed office upon the dead of John Kennedy in November 1963):

 

 

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President's Approval Picks Up In May

Posted May 18, 2009 at 2:17 AM by Maurice Berger

Is President Obama more popular now than he was in his first 100-days. According to Gallup, he is having a good, strong month: "President Barack Obama appears to be slightly more popular with Americans at the start of his second 100 days in office than he was, on average, during his first 100. Gallup Poll Daily tracking from May 7-9 finds 66% of Americans approving of how he is handling his job, compared with an average 63% from January through April. Obama's approval rating has registered 66% or better in each Gallup three-day rolling average since May 2. His 68% approval rating reported on May 3 is tied for the second highest of his presidency, exceeded only by the 69% recorded immediately after his inauguration. And except for one 66% approval rating in late April, all of Obama's previous 66% to 68% readings were obtained near the start of his term." PollTrack suggests that it is too early to tell what any of this means in the long term. Yet, the President's numbers have remained relatively strong and consustent since the outset of his administration, a sign of the relative popularity of his presidency.

Obama's Approval Rating VERY High

Posted May 05, 2009 at 12:45 AM by Maurice Berger

President Barack Obama's overall approval rathing--67% according to Gallup--is relatively high for a commander in chief a 100 or so days into his administration. According to Gallup, "the new president's approval rating at the 100-day mark is notable in that nearly all major demographic categories of Americans are pleased with his job performance, as evidenced by approval ratings above the majority level. Only in terms of political and ideological categories does Obama have a significant proportion of detractors; a majority of Republicans and self-described "conservatives" disapprove of his job performance. Obama's strongest backers are blacks, with 96% saying they approve of the job he is doing. However, Hispanics are nearly as supportive, with 85% approving. Approval is a much lower 57% among whites -- but still a solid majority." These are exception numbers relative to most other recent presidencies.

Interactive Chart: Presidential Approval Ratings--1945 to 2006

Posted Jan 23, 2009 at 1:38 AM by Maurice Berger

The Wall Street Journal has an oitstanding interactive chart of presidential approval ratings from 1945 to 2006. The Chart allows you to match approval ratings with key events, both national and international, that impacted the presidency. For the WSJ chart click here.