Posted Jan 27, 2009 at 9:12 AM by Maurice Berger
The ideological divide evident in Election 2008 between the so-called blue and red states may be dissipating. According to a set of polls released by Rasmussen Reports, Tennessee and Texas--two states that were safely in John McCain’s column on
Election Day--now report surprisingly high approval ratings for President Obama: "In a snapshot look at attitudes in McCain country, Rasmussen
Reports finds that concerns about the current economic situation appear to
override traditional political considerations. In Texas, for example, 62% of voters approve of Barack
Obama’s performance to date, including 41% who Strongly Approve. 35% disapprove, with 19% who Strongly Disapprove.Only 47% of Texas voters had a favorable opinion of Obama in
the last poll before Election Day . . . 60% of Tennessee voters approve of Obama’s
job performance, including 39% who Strongly Approve. Thirty-five percent (35%)
disapprove, 21% of whom Strongly Disapprove." Obama's approval rating in the state in a pre-Election Day poll was 45%.
Tagged: President Barack Obama, Voter Enthusiasm, voter expectations, Tennessee, Texas
Posted Sep 30, 2008 at 10:36 AM by Maurice Berger
In a bit of news that seems antithetical to Obama's improving poll numbers, a statewide poll released yesterday by Middle Tennessee State University reports that Democrat is still having a problem winning over voters who supported Hillary Clinton in Tennessee's primary back in February. If the election remains close, this "Clinton gap" could spell trouble for the Democrat. MTSU observes: "The McCain campaign seems to have had modest success at attracting
supporters of former Democratic candidate Hillary Clinton, whom 22
percent of Tennesseans say they voted for in the Democratic primary. A
quarter of those who voted for the junior senator from New York in
Tennessee’s Democratic presidential primary say that they would now
vote for McCain and Palin in the general election. However, 56 percent
of those who report that they voted for Clinton in the primary say that
they would now vote for Obama and Biden. The rest of Clinton’s
supporters remain undecided at this point or say they would vote for
someone other than McCain or Obama." Overall, McCain's PollTrack average in the state is a healthy +14%.
Tagged: Hillary Clinton, Barack Obama, Tennessee
Posted Sep 15, 2008 at 9:35 AM by Maurice Berger
Although the Republican base is fired up and McCain claims a significant lead among independents, Democratic party identification and voter enthusiasm is also way up (Rasmussen gives the Democrats a 5% advantage). Thus, neither candidate is walking away with the election at this point. Even a cursory glance at the electoral map suggests conditions far similar to the razor close count of 2000 and not 1988 or 1992, where one party gained lasting momentum and was able to pick off enough swing states to capture a solid electoral majority. If Obama were poised to do this, he would need to win a bunch of states that have gone Republican in the last two cycles but were also won by Bill Clinton in 1992 and/or 1996: Tennessee, Kentucky, West Virginia, Montana, Georgia, Florida. All these states are now moving solidly into the Republican column. Similarly, McCain is behind in New Jersey, Wisconsin, and Michigan (though by smaller margins than Obama in TN, KY, MN, GA, WV), states he would need for a big win.
Unless dramatic on-the-ground events (perhaps spurred by this weekend's Wall Street meltdown) or a striking under-performance or major league blooper in the debates throws off one of the candidates, it's conceivable that the election will remain close to the very end. Then it will be up to voter enthusiasm and turnout to propel one or the other over the victory line.
Tagged: Florida, Georgia, Barack Obama, John McCain, Kentucky, Tennessee, West Virginia, New Jersey, Wisconsin, Michigan, Montana
