Posted Nov 18, 2013 at 10:21 AM by Maurice Berger
According to Gallup, "U.S. Hispanics and Asians are much less likely to be registered to vote than whites or blacks. Whereas more than eight in 10 blacks and whites are registered, and therefore able to vote in elections, 60% of Asians and barely half of Hispanics are currently able to participate in the electoral process."
Posted Jul 23, 2013 at 8:53 AM by Maurice Berger
A new poll by Washington Post-ABC News reports a significant racial divide in public attitudes on the Trayvon Martin case. By 86% to 9%, African-Americans disapprove of the verdict acquitting George Zimmerman; whites approve by 51% to 31%. Blacks, by 81% to 13%, favor federal civil rights charges against Zimmerman; whites are opposed, 59% to 27%.
Posted Jul 08, 2013 at 9:36 AM by Maurice Berger
According to a new survey by ABC News-Washington Post, just 33% of Americans approve of the Supreme Court's ruling
dismantling a key element of the Voting Rights Act. A majority, 51%,
disapprove. Among African Americans, disapproval stands at 71%.
Posted Feb 15, 2013 at 10:35 AM by Maurice Berger
According to an analysis by Gallup, "Non-Hispanic whites accounted for 89% of Republican self-identifiers
nationwide in 2012, while accounting for 70% of independents and 60% of
Democrats. Over one-fifth of Democrats (22%) were black, while 16% of
independents were Hispanic." Here is Gallup's chart:
Posted Jan 02, 2013 at 6:51 AM by Maurice Berger
With the population of older white--and generally GOP-leaning--voters aging out and dying, is the Republican Party risking becoming a "regional party" if they don't increase support among Hispanic and other voters. GOP pollster Whit Ayres released a strategy memo saying that Republicans are, indeed, at risk in future elections: "Mitt Romney won a landslide among white voters, defeating Barack Obama
by 59 to 39 percent. In the process he won every large segment of white
voters, often by double-digit margins: white men, white women, white
Catholics, white Protestants, white old people, white young people. Yet
that was not enough to craft a national majority. Republicans have run
out of persuadable white voters. For the fifth time in the past six
presidential elections, Republicans lost the popular vote. Trying to win
a national election by gaining a larger and larger share of a smaller
and smaller portion of the electorate is a losing political
Posted Nov 27, 2012 at 8:44 AM by Maurice Berger
According to the Washington Post, the GOP is facing demographic challenges not just with Hispanic voters, but also the decline of white and the ascendency of black voters in the South: "The South [tells] a newer and more surprising story: The nation’s first
black president finished more strongly in the region than any other
Democratic nominee in three decades, underscoring a fresh challenge for
Republicans who rely on Southern whites as their base of national
support . . .
. . . Obama won Virginia and Florida and narrowly missed victory in North Carolina. But he also polled as
well in Georgia as any Democrat since Jimmy Carter, grabbed 44 percent
of the vote in deep-red South Carolina and just under that in
Mississippi — despite doing no substantive campaigning in any of those
states . . .
. . . Much of the post-election analysis has focused on the demographic crisis facing Republicans among
Hispanic voters, particularly in Texas. But the results across other
parts of the South, where Latinos remain a single-digit minority, point
to separate trends among blacks and whites that may also have big
implications for the GOP’s future."
Posted Nov 13, 2012 at 8:48 AM by Maurice Berger
While much has been made of shifting demographics in this election cycle--and it is clear from exit polling that an uptick in African-American, Hispanic, and young voters and a decrease in white participation from 2008 made a big difference in the outcome--it is easy to forget that on the issues, the GOP lost as well. As NBC News' Mark Murray, reports: "For years, the GOP has branded itself as the party that supports low
taxes (especially for the wealthy) and opposes abortion and gay
marriage. But according to the exit polls from last week's presidential
election, a combined 60% said that tax rates should increase either for
everyone or for those making more than $250,000. Just 35% said the tax
rates shouldn't increase for anyone."
Murray continues: "What's more, 59% said that abortion should be legal in all or most
cases. And by a 49%-to-46% margin, voters said that their states should
legally recognize same-sex marriage."
Posted Nov 12, 2012 at 9:16 AM by Maurice Berger
In "The Case of the Missing White Voters, Sean Trende writes: "For Republicans, that despair now comes from an electorate that seems to
have undergone a sea change. In the 2008 final exit polls (unavailable
online), the electorate was 75 percent white, 12.2 percent
African-American, 8.4 percent Latino, with 4.5 percent distributed to
other ethnicities. We’ll have to wait for this year’s absolute final
exit polls to come in to know the exact estimate of the composition this
time, but right now it appears to be pegged at about 72 percent white,
13 percent black, 10 percent Latino and 5 percent 'other.'” PollTrack points out that a +3% drop off of such a large Demographic was very significant in this election, representing one of the most important factors in Obama's victory.
Posted Nov 06, 2012 at 6:13 PM by Maurice Berger
A possible problem for Mitt Romney: the percentage of white voters in this election appears to be the same as 2008: 73%. Given Obama's enormous advantage with voters of color--and an increase in support among Hispanics (and, according to exit polls, a bump up to 10% participation from 9% in 2008)--the white vote may not be enough to put Romney over the top nationally. Stay tuned.
Posted Apr 17, 2012 at 8:31 AM by Maurice Berger
Gallup has a fascinating demographic snapshot of the president's approval rating, now at 47%. Significantly, he holds a solid majority from his own party (84%), and does extremely well with African American (88%) and Hispanic voters (61%). The demographic breakdown also suggest a few red flags for the President's reelection effort: only 36% of white voters approve of his performance, he polls no better than 38% with voters over the age of 65%, and--perhaps most significantly--his standing among independents hovers at 40%. The good news for the administration: approval numbers do not always reflect voter sentiment in a general election. Obama's fares much better with independents, for example, when pitted against his likely GOP challenger, Mitt Romney. Stay tuned.
Posted Jul 25, 2011 at 2:20 AM by Maurice Berger
In what could spell serious trouble for the President's reelection effort next year, A new Pew Research survey reports that the GOP has made significant gains among white voters in the three years since Barack Obama was elected president. In 2008, the Republicans could claim a 2% lead among whites--46% to 44%. Today, that lead has expanded to a whopping +13% lead today, 52% to 39%. To put these numbers in perspective, Obama won the 2008 race with only 43% of the white vote. Any significant diminution of that number would greatly hamper his reelection effort.
Posted Jul 15, 2010 at 1:19 AM by Maurice Berger
According to several polls, President Obama is passing through a rough patch vis-a-vis public opinion about his performance in office. Public
Policy Polling survey reports that President Obama's approval rating has dropped to a
new low: Now, 45% of voters approve of the job he's
doing; 52% disapprove. PPP continues: "The two most troublesome things for Obama in his numbers at
this point are his standing among white voters and independents. Whites
now disapprove of Obama by nearly a 2:1 margin, with 62% giving him bad
marks and only 35% saying he's doing a good job. With independents his
approval is just 40% and 56% disapprove of his performance." Another poll by Bloomberg reports that Americans disapprove of President Obama's handling "of almost every
major issue and are deeply pessimistic about the nation's direction,
offering a bullish environment for Republicans in the November
congressional elections . . . . A majority or plurality disapproves of Obama's management of the
economy, health care, the budget deficit, the overhaul of financial
market regulations and the oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico. In addition,
almost 6 in 10 respondents say the war in
Afghanistan is a lost cause."