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Writing on the Wall

Writing on the Wall invites observations, opinion, and reports by political writers, activists, legislators, and community leaders on the state of politics, the electorate, and the nation at large. Contributions will be ongoing and will cover both contemporary elections and electoral history as well as the contemporary political landscape of the country, both nationally and locally.

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Nevada 2010 US Senate: Without Tea Party Candidate, Democrat Suffers

Posted Mar 12, 2010 at 9:14 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

Without the presence of a Tea Party candidate on the ballot in Nevada's 2010 US Senate race, incumbent Democrat and Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid appears to be failing: In hypothetical match-ups, a new Rasmussen survey reports that Republican Sue Lowden defeats Reid by a large margin, 51% to 38%. Similarly, Republican Danny Tarkanian trounces the Democrat, 50% to 37%.

PollTrack Rating: Leans Republican

TX Governor 2010: Republican Perry Leading By Slim Margin

Posted Mar 11, 2010 at 8:45 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

With the primaries over in Texas, Rasmussen reports that the incumbent Republican Governor Rick Perry leads his Democratic challenger, Bill White by a small margin: 49% to 43%. These numbers suggest that the race has tightened considerably in recent months.  

PollTrack Rating: Toss-Up

 

OH US Senate 2010: No Clear Leader, But Republican Slightly Ahead

Posted Mar 10, 2010 at 8:13 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

A new survey reports that there is no clear leader in the 2010 Ohio US Senate race: "None of the top contenders  . . . are gaining ground at this point, with Republican Rob Portman still holding a modest lead. The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of likely voters in the state finds Portman leading Lieutenant Governor Lee Fisher 44% to 39% . . . Portman holds a 43% to 37% lead over Secretary of State Jennifer Brunner, and this, too, is little changed from the previous survey. Six percent (6%) opt for another candidate, with 15% more undecided."

PollTrack Projection: Too Close To Call

Siena Poll: NY Voters Want Peterson To Remain

Posted Mar 09, 2010 at 9:07 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

Contradicting a Quinnipiac poll released late last week, a new Siena Research Institute survey reports that "A clear majority of voters, 55%, would prefer Governor David Paterson serve the remainder of his term, compared to 37% who would like him to resign and allow Lt. Governor Richard Ravitch to serve as governor for the remainder of the year. And an even larger majority, 71 percent, would rather see the Governor finish his term, while 21 percent would like the State Legislature to move to impeach the Governor if he does not resign."

NY Gov. 2010: Voters Cooling on Paterson

Posted Mar 08, 2010 at 9:45 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

With even more harmful stories circulating last week about embattled NY Governor David Paterson, a new Quinnipiac poll reports that voters are now split 46% to 42% over whether Paterson should finish his term rather than resign. Just a few days earlier, Quinnipiac found, by a 61% to 31% margin, voters wanted Paterson serving to serve out his term. 

NJ US Senate 2012: Democrat Menendez Loosing Ground

Posted Mar 05, 2010 at 9:29 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

In an indication that the incumbent Democratic senior US Senator is New Jersey may be loosing ground politically in his state, a new Fairleigh Dickinson PublicMind Poll reports that Republican Tom Kean Jr. is in a statistical dead heat with Democrat Bob Menendez in a hypothetical rematch of their 2006 U.S. Senate race, 39% to 38%, with 17% undecided. Although the race is more than two years away, the poll suggests the dramatic erosion of Democratic support in the state following the defeat of incumbent Democratic Governor Jon Corzine last November.

Most New Yorkers Want Gov. Paterson To Stay

Posted Mar 04, 2010 at 9:38 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

Despite being battered by a series of punishing news cycles, a new Quinnipiac poll in New York reports that 61% of voters want incumbent Democratic Governor David Paterson to finish out his term, this despite a dismal 24% approval rating and an increasing number of political figures calling for him to resign.

Nevada US Senate 2010: Harry Reid Aided By TeaParty Candidate

Posted Mar 03, 2010 at 9:46 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

A Mason-Dixon poll in Nevada indicates that incumbent Democratic U.S. Senator Harry Reid actually leads his re-election race with 36% of the vote when matched against a generic Republican who would get 32% and a Tea Party candidate who would get 18%. The ability of the Tea Party candidate to siphon off votes from the Republican candidate is enough to shift the outcome: in head-to-head match ups with named Republicans, Reid continues to trail by  significant margins. Sue Lowden beats Reid, 52% to 39%; Danny Tarkanian would prevail over Reid, 51% to 40%.

MD Governor 2010: Incumbent Democrat In Good Position

Posted Mar 02, 2010 at 9:57 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

According to a new Rasmussen Reports survey in Maryland, incumbent Democratic Governor Martin O'Malley leads former GOP Governor Bob Ehrlich (R) in a potential rematch of their 2006 race, 49% to 43%.

DE US Senate: Republican Castle Way Ahead

Posted Mar 01, 2010 at 9:11 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

In a potential pick up for Republicans, a new DailyKos/Research 2000 poll in Delaware finds GOP Rep. Mike Castle (R) considerably ahead of Democrat Chris Coons (D) in the U.S. Senate race, 53% to 35%.

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