Posted Feb 27, 2009 at 9:04 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack
Things have improved a bit for Democrats in their congressional prospects for 2010: "Democrats have pulled slightly further ahead this week in the
latest edition of the Generic Congressional Ballot.Rasmussen Reports national telephone surveys found that 41%
of voters said they would vote for their district’s Democratic candidate while
37% said they would choose the Republica."
Tagged: 2010, Democratic Party, Republican Party, US Congress
Posted Feb 26, 2009 at 9:18 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack
The three-judge panel reviewing the results of the US Senate recount in Minnesota has handed Republican Norm Cokeman a big setback. The Minneapolis Star Tribune reports: "Ballots that Norm Coleman wants to count took a beating in testimony
on Tuesday, while ballots he thinks are illegal were protected by the
judges hearing the U.S. Senate trial. In the latest in a series of setbacks for Coleman, the three-judge
panel refused to preserve identifying marks on counted absentee ballots
that he claims have been rendered illegal by recent rulings of the
court. The decision hampers the ability of Coleman, a Republican, to
challenge ballots tallied in the final phase of the recount, when DFL
Al Franken took a 225-vote lead."
Tagged: Al Franken, Norm Coleman, US Senate RACE CHART, Minnesota
Posted Feb 25, 2009 at 9:20 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack
According to a report in the Chicago Sun Times, embattled Sen. Roland Burris (D-Ill.) met with Sen. Dick Durbin
(D-Ill.) on Tuesday afternoon and delivered two distinct messages: "he will not resign in the wake of the
controversy surrounding his appointment by the ousted Gov. Blagojevich
and he will not run for the seat in 2010. Burris has finally realized
that not seeking election next year is the least price he will pay."
Tagged: 2010, US Senate RACE CHART, Illinois
Posted Feb 24, 2009 at 9:56 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack
According to a new Quinnipiac University poll, incumbent Republican Governor Charlie Crist is well situated for either reelection or a US Senate run in 2010. He would be heavily favored to win the GOP nomination for U.S.
Senate and beats a generic Democrat handily in a general election match
up, 48% to 25%. However, a plurality of respondents want Crist to remain as governor with 57% favoring his re-election.
Tagged: 2010, US Governor RACE CHART, US Senate RACE CHART, Florida
Posted Feb 23, 2009 at 9:11 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack
According to the local TV news station, NY1, "a spokesman for former Governor George Pataki says he has met with a
top Senate Republican, as rumors swirl that the party is pushing him to
run for Senate. The Associated Press is reporting that during the
visit, Senator John Cornyn of Texas approached Pataki about running in
2010 for the seat held by Democrat Kirsten Gillibrand. Gillibrand
was appointed just last month by Governor David Paterson, after Hillary
Clinton vacated the seat to be secretary of state. Pataki is working for a private law practice and has not commented on the possibility of returning to public life."
Tagged: US Senate RACE CHART, New York
Posted Feb 20, 2009 at 9:04 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack
Things are looking up for Democrat Al Franken in the Minnesota recount post-game. As Politico reports on its website: Does Republican norm Coleman have any real chance of retaining his Senate seat? The
answer, "according to state political and legal analysts, is that it would take a
miracle. Miracles do happen in politics — but four weeks into a court case that
will decide the winner of Minnesota’s tortured Senate race, the GOP incumbent is
facing just-about-insurmountable hurdles to overcome the 225-vote deficit he was
saddled with at the end of the official recount. The court itself has
not yet counted a single vote. Instead, a three-judge panel is considering a
pool of disputed ballots and steadily ruling which are legitimate and should be
counted, and which should be thrown out. Coleman wants most of the
ballots included, believing they will tilt the election in his favor."
"But so
far, the court’s decisions favor the Democratic challenger, comedian and author
Al Franken, experts say. And that trend is expected to continue. 'Norm
Coleman’s life support system is slowly weakening,' said Larry Jacobs, director
of the University of Minnesota’s Center for the Study of Politics and
Governance. The latest blow came Friday, when the judges considered 19
different categories of rejected absentee ballots and ruled that 12 of the
categories had to be thrown out. That lowered the number of absentee ballots
eligible for inclusion from about 4,800 to around 3,300 — down from about 12,000
at the beginning of the trial."
Tagged: Al Franken, Norm Coleman, US Senate RACE CHART, Minnesota
Posted Feb 19, 2009 at 9:15 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack
A new Chicago Tribune poll reports that more Illinois voters want to see Democratic Lt. Gov. Pat Quinn run for Senate in 2010 than newly-appointed Democrat Sen. Roland Burris. 48% of registered voters would like to see Quinn
run, 15% do not want him to run and 37% are undecided. Voters want Burris to run by a narrower margin--37% to 33%, with 29% undecided.
Tagged: 2010, US Senate RACE CHART, Illinois
Posted Feb 18, 2009 at 9:27 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack
A new Quinnipiac University survey reveals that "both Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand (D-NY) and the man who appointed her, Gov.
David Paterson (D) trail Democratic primary challengers in 2010. Attorney General Andrew Cuomo (D) trounces Paterson, 55% to 23%, in a possible gubernatorial primary. And Rep. Carolyn McCarthy (D-NY) beats Gillibrand in a
Democratic U.S. Senate primary, 34% to 24%, with 39% still undecided. Quinnipiac observes: "The Caroline Kennedy mix-up still
haunts Gov. David Paterson... Three quarters of New Yorkers heard about
the nasty news leaks. They think Kennedy
was treated unfairly, but most don't blame Paterson for the leaks."
Tagged: US Governor RACE CHART, US Senate RACE CHART, New York
Posted Feb 17, 2009 at 9:39 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack
Senator Arlen Specter of Pennsylvania was one of three Republicans to support the stimulus package now making its way through Congress. His support appears to hurt him with many voters in the state, a possible problem for his 2010 reeelection effort. Tatest Rasmussen Reports survey in Pennsylvania roports that just 31% voters say are more likely to vote
for Specter because of his position on the stimulus package while 40% are less
likely to do so."
Tagged: US Congress, 2010, US Senate RACE CHART, Pennsylvania
Posted Feb 16, 2009 at 9:54 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack
The Minneapolis Star Tribune reports that the three-judge panel evaluating the recount of the Minnesota US Senate race has made a major ruling against Republican Norm Coleman: Dealing a blow but not a knockout to Coleman's
hopes, the judges "tossed
out most of the 19 categories of rejected absentee ballots they were
considering for a second look, making it clear that they won't open and
count any ballots that don't comply with state law. On its face, the ruling looked to be a victory for DFLer Al Franken,
whose lawyers had urged the judges to turn down 17 of the 19 categories
and said Friday that they had very nearly done it. But Coleman's attorneys saw it differently, saying that the ruling
leaves untouched about 3,500 of the 4,800 rejected absentee ballots
they want the court to open and count, enough to make it possible for
Coleman to overcome Franken's 225-vote certified recount lead."
Tagged: Al Franken, Norm Coleman, US Senate RACE CHART, Minnesota
Posted Feb 13, 2009 at 9:50 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack
Political Wire reports that a soon to be released Strategic Vision poll
in Florida shows Gov. Charlie Crist (R) the runaway favorite in
the 2010 U.S. Senate race should he decide to run: "Among Democrats, Rep. Ron Klein leads the pack with 12%, followed by Rep. Kendrick Meek at 10% and 66% still undecided. Among Republicans, Crist leads the field with 54% support, followed by Rep. Connie Mack at 14%. In general election match ups, Crist beats each of the Democrats by
more than 25 points, though pollster David Johnson suggests name
recognition is the key factor at this point in the cycle."
Tagged: US Senate RACE CHART, 2010, Florida
Posted Feb 12, 2009 at 10:10 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack
Pennsylvania Republican US Senator appears to be highly vulnerable in his upcoming 2010 reelection bid. When Pennsylvania voters were asked in a new Quinnipiac survey if Sen. Arlen Specter (R-PA) deserves re-election, 40% said yes while 43% said no.
Tagged: US Senate RACE CHART, Pennsylvania
Posted Feb 10, 2009 at 11:23 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack
The Sacramento Bee reports that former eBay chief executive Meg Whitman officially submitted her bid to explore a run for governor on Monday: "The move by the billionaire businesswoman sets up what's expected to
be an expensive, 17-month auction between herself and Insurance
Commissioner Steve Poizner in the 2010 Republican primary."
Tagged: 2010, Arnold Schwarzenegger, US Governor RACE CHART, California
Posted Feb 09, 2009 at 10:16 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack
According to a Rasmussen Reports survey, the Republicans appear to have an advantage in the upcoming 2009 Virginia Governor's race: "Republican Attorney General Robert F. McDonnell has a three-to-nine
point lead against three hopefuls for the Democratic nomination in this
year’s closely-watched Virginia gubernatorial contest . . . the lone
Republican gubernatorial candidate topping his best-known opponent,
Terry McAuliffe, by seven points, 42% to 35%. In December, he held a
five-point edge over McAuliffe, a longtime Clinton confidant, major
Democratic fund-raiser and former national party chairman. McDonnell is even further ahead of Rep. R. Creigh Deeds of Bath County – 39% to 30%. The two men were tied two months ago. Brian J. Moran, a former state delegate from Alexandria,
led McDonnell by four points in the earlier survey but now trails by
three, 39% to 36%."
Tagged: 2009, US Governor RACE CHART, Virginia
Posted Feb 06, 2009 at 8:44 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack
The Minneapolis Star Tribune reports that lawyers for Democrat Al Frenken asked
Minnesota's highest court on Thursday to certify him as the winner of
his tight Senate race with Republican Norm Coleman without waiting for
the outcome of his rival's legal challenge: The court "heard oral arguments on Franken's request for a certificate of election
now, at least on an interim basis, so that Minnesota's empty seat can
be filled without waiting the months it may take for the courts to
resolve Coleman's separate lawsuit over the recount, which gave Franken
a 225-vote advantage. The justices took the case under
advisement and didn't say when they might rule, but their many
questions suggested they were skeptical of Franken's arguments."
Tagged: Al Franken, Norm Coleman, US Senate RACE CHART, Minnesota
Posted Feb 05, 2009 at 10:07 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack
A new Quinnipiac University poll suggests that Democratic Governor is falling behind in his reelection race: Corzine is "slipping behind former U.S. Attorney Christopher Christie, the
front-runner for the Republican nomination, though the challenger also was far
from the 50% mark. Christie led Corzine by 44% to 38% . . . with 16% voicing no opinion. The 6%-point margin in the hypothetical
matchup is an exact reversal from that in a Nov. 19 Quinnipiac poll, which
showed Corzine up by 42% to 36%."
Tagged: 2009, New Jersey
Posted Feb 04, 2009 at 10:07 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack
The endless Minnesota Senate race may not be over, after all. The three-judge panel reviewing the recount ruled on Tuesday that nearly 4,800 rejected absentee ballots may be reconsidered in the
U.S. Senate recount trial. According to the Minneapolis Star Tribune,"the court granted Democrat Al Franken’s request to limit the
universe of ballots that Republican Norm Coleman can seek to have
counted, rejecting Coleman’s attempt to have about 11,000 rejected
absentee ballots reconsidered. But Franken had asked the judges to
limit the review to only the 650 ballots cited by Coleman when he filed
his lawsuit last month challenging the recount. With Franken holding a 225-vote lead after the recount results were
certified, the 4,800 ballots that may be reconsidered would appear to
be enough to put the ultimate outcome in doubt. The court order indicates that any of the ballots that complied with
state law should be counted, along with those where errors occurred
through no fault of the voter."
Tagged: Al Franken, Norm Coleman, US Senate RACE CHART, Minnesota