It's official: with 100% of precincts reporting in NY-20, the race is tied at 50% (Democrat Murphy leads by a scant 65 votes) and is Too-Close-To-Call according to the Associated Press. AP reports: "There are at least 6,000 and possibly as many as 10,000 absentee ballots that will not be included in the results for at least a week." Since the Board of Elections has agreed to continue counting overseas absentee ballots until April 13--many of these from active duty military--this race may not be settled for a while.At this point, it is difficult to gauge the effect of these absentee votes. With some coming from military members (lean Republican), other from voters with second homes in New York City (lean Democrat), and still others from elderly residents (lean Republican), it's hard to create a demographic profile for these remaining ballots.

Here's the AP final tally:

With one precinct left, Murphy now leads by 80 votes. This race will need to be decided by absentee ballots.

The AP tally:

With Tedisco's lead actually narrowing in once solidly Republican Saratoga County, it's starting to look like a very close election, one perhaps impossible to call until the 6,000 or so absentee and military ballots are counted. The evening may well end up without a winner.

The latest from AP:

Although the vote is now tied, 50% to 50%, PollTrack notes that in the biggest Republican (and largest) county in the 20th--Saratoga--almost 35% of precincts remain uncounted. A number of counties more favorable to Democrat Murphy have reported 100% of their vote. Could this suggest a Tedisco surge as the evening wears on? With more than 40 precincts still out in Saratoga, the Republican may have a hidden advantage.

The latest from Associated Press:

As of 9:45 PM, it's a tie:

Early results from the Associated Press suggest it could be a long night. The results are at this very early stage, very close:

According to the Albany Times Union, "those who are hoping to avoid a late night, better hope that the 20th Congressional race has at least a good 6,000 vote margin. As of yesterday, there were 5,907 absentee ballots received by the state Board of Elections, according to spokesman Bob Brehm. Absentee ballots must be postmarked by yesterday, March 30 and received within 7 days (for regular absentee ballots) or 13 days (for military/ overseas ballots)." This could be a long night . . . or not.

The Associated Press is reporting generally light turnout in today's special election to fill the house seat vacated by Kirten Gillibrand's in New York's 20th CD: "Volunteers knocked on doors and surrogates fired off e-mails Tuesday afternoon amid reports of light turnout in a special congressional election focused on President Barack Obama and his economic stimulus plan.Voters who did show up admitted to being exhausted by the torrent of negative ads from Republican Jim Tedisco and Democrat Scott Murphy . . . Polling places and local election boards reported light turnout throughout the day, not unusual in a special election in which there are no statewide offices or big names on the ballot to attract more casual voters." A truly light turnout could be good news in a congressional district with a decided Republican advantage in registration.

Politico reports that the turnout is high in one large Republican county in the 20th Congressinal District, but that the meaning of the upswing may be unclear: "Just finished visiting three precincts in Saratoga County, where turnout is well above expectations. Election officials at the three Saratoga Springs precincts said they expected about 35 percent of registered voters to cast ballots by the time polls close at 9:00 EST. On paper, that’s encouraging news for Republican Jim Tedisco because Saratoga County has traditionally been a Republican stronghold.  Tedisco also represents parts of the county in his statewide Assembly seat. But the voting patterns of the county have changed dramatically in recent years – Democrat Kirsten Gillibrand won 59 percent of the county vote last year, and President Obama carried the county with 51 percent of the vote."

For what its worth, local observers in Chatham, New York, report on the Legislative Gazette that more Republicans appear to be voting in one representative precinct but that Democrat Scott Murphy edges Republican Jim Tedisco in an informal "exit poll" of 22 voters leaving the voting station. "In Chatham, Columbia County, a part of the 20th, voters seemed to be favoring Murphy over Tedisco, but not by a large margin." The report continues: "Of the 22 voters surveyed in Chatham, 14 people voted for Murphy and eight chose Tedisco" Yet, one poll worker sees an advatange for the Republican: "After poll watching it looks like more Republicans are out." These observations, of course, are informal, unscientific, and contradictory, so PollTrack, for now, takes them with a grain of salt. But report them we must.

PollTrack is one of the few websites offering fresh reporting on today's special election in New York's 20th Congressional District. If you like what you are reading, SPREAD THE WORD. We'll have reports from our political director, Maurice Berger (who is also a part-time resident of the 20th Congressional District) throughout the day--both on our Presidential and Writing on the Wall Blog pages. These reports should satisfy political junkies as well as anyone interested in the NY-20 race, its outcome, and its national implications.

PollTrack has just received several eyewitness reports about voting in today's special election in New York's 20th congressional district. While voting is not heavy, it also appears to be greater than the usual historically low turnout in off-year or special elections. One voter described activity as brisk in her precinct in Upstate Chatham. With millions spent on the race and a cavalcade of publicity and local and national advertising and press, the NY-20 contest may well bring out more voters than the norm. Indeed, the president himself has gotten into the act, attempting to increase turnout, sending supporters a last-minute pitch Monday night. In an e-mail sent out via the Democratic National Committee's Organizing For America grassroots effort, the president urged the party's voters to head to the polls to vote for venture capitalist Scott Murphy. "I need you to go vote . . . It's going to be a very close race, and your vote could make all the difference," he wrote.

According to The Hill, a new poll by the Democratic National Congressional Committee shows the Democrat Scott Murphy leading Republican Jim Tedisco in the NY-20 special election to fill the house seat vacated by Kirsten Gillibrand. Democrat Scott Murphy leads Republican state Assemblyman Jim Tedisco by two percentage points. The poll, obtained from a Democratic source, shows Murphy leading Tedisco 43% to 41%. The Hill notes: "DCCC's poll was taken earlier this week, before the Siena College poll released Friday that showed Murphy leading Tedisco by four percentage points, 47% to 43%." An internal Republican National Congressional Committee poll lte last week also showed Murphy leading. Is the momentum with the Democrat? PollTrack thinks it's hard to gauge at this point. The district has a significant advantage in Republican registration, an important factor in special elections that tend to draw only the party faithful. In no poll does Murphy or Tedisco break the 50% mark. And all polls thus far indicate a large undecided bloc. In the end, PollTrack believes the election remains too-close-to-call and that its outcome will likely depend on turnout.

The Democratic and Republican candidates in the race to replace Kirsten Gillibrand in New York's 20th Congressional District sat down with the editorial board of a local newspaper--The Saratogian (Saratoga Springs)--for "roughly an hour each and were asked a variety of questions, ranging from the federal stimulus plan, diversification of the district's economy, ways to reduce property taxes and local budgets, and their views on government and small business." The videos provide a rare opportunity to view the candidates in an intimate setting, casually answering questions of importance to the district. For these videos, click here.

The campaign of Republican Jim Tedisco, now behind by four points in the latest survey of voters in the hotly contested NY-20 race, has launched a new attack ad, one that links Democrat Scott Murphy to the tragedy of 9/11 because of his opposition to the death penalty, even in cases of terrorism. Will the ad resonate with voters in a predominantly Republican district or will it backfire? (The Siena Poll released this morning suggests that voters see the Tedisco campaign as the more negative and angry, a view partly responsible for the Republican's net drop of 8% over the past two weeks). Here is the new advertisement:

The Democratic and Republican parties are now running ads in the highly competitive NY-20 race to fill the congressional seat vacated by Kirsten Gillibrand when she was appointed to replace outgoing NY US Senator and now Secretary of State, Hillary Clinton.

Here are the ads:

DEMOCRATIC NATIONAL COMMITTEE For Scott Murphy:

REPUBLICAN CAMPAIGN AD for Jim Tedisco:

In the dramatic race to fill the seat vacated by New York US Senator Kirstien Gillibrand, a new Siena Institute Poll reports that the Democrat, Scott Murphy has erased Republican Jim Tidesco's lead. As the special election enters the final weekend, Murphy has reversed a four-point deficit and turned it into a four-point lead over Republican Assembly Minority Leader James Tedisco. Murphy leads 47%-43%, having trailed two weeks ago by a 45%-41%. One reason for Murphy's imporovement: Tedisco’s campaign is viewed by voters as more negative by a 44%-25% margin, while Murphy’s campaign is seen as more positive. “While the percentage of likely voters supporting Murphy has risen about three points per week for the last four weeks, the percentage supporting Tedisco has dropped three points. In the last four weeks, Murphy turned a 12-point deficit into a four-point lead,” said Steven Greenberg, spokesman for the Siena New York Poll. Still, the district leans Republican. With GOP registration outnumbering Democratic, the race could come down to turnout. Perhaps somewhat ominiously for the Democrat, Siena reports that "regardless of who they are supporting, by a 45% to 35% margin, voters think Tedisco will win the election." Stay tuned for PollTrack updates.

The NY-20 congressional race to fill the seat vacated by US Senator Kirsten Gillibrand has drawn down to a virtual tie according two three news polls. A Republican National Committee poll gives the GOP candidate, Jim Tedisco, a three-point lead over Democrat Scott Murphy in the special election to be held next Tuesday. A National Republican Congressional Committee survey actually shows the Democrat leading by two points, and Tedisco's own internal polling shows him leading by just one point. PollTrack's averaging of the three polls suggests the race is too-close-to-call, a virtual tie.

The New York Times reports that democrat Chris Matthews will not be running against incumbent Republican Pennsylvania Senator Arlen Specter in 2010. The Times reports that "Matthews, the usually garrulous host of Hardball on MSNBC, has quietly signed a new long-term contract to remain with the cable network through the next election, signaling that he had quit entertaining any plans to run for a Senate seat.The deal is for at least four years. Financial terms were not disclosed, and neither side would confirm whether MSNBC had won a reduction in salary for the host, as it had been reported to be seeking. Previous reports put his annual salary at about $5 million."

A new Siena Research Institute poll indicates that incumbent New York Democrat Kirstin Gillibrand would handily defeat Republican congeessman Peter King in her 2010 reelection bid, but that former Republican Governor George Pataki would present a far more difficult challenge. If the election were held now, Sen. Gillibrand would handily defeat Rep. King (R-NY), 47% to 23%. However, Gillibrand would face a tough challenge if former New York Gov. George Pataki (R) chooses to run: the two are currently tied at 41%.

According to a new Quinnipiac University survey, the race for the Democratic nomination to seek the Ohio seat of retiring Republican Sen. George Voinovich is "a wide-open affair" while, on the GOP side, former Rep. Rob Portman holds a significant lead: "In general election match-ups, the Democrats come out ahead of the Republicans." For the Democrats, Lt. Gov. Lee Fisher leads at 18%, followed by Secretary of State Jennifer Brunner at 14% and Rep. Tim Ryan at 12%. As for the Republicans, Portman leads State Auditor Mary Taylor 31% to 14% with 52% undecided. The general election match-ups: Fisher leads Portman 41% to 33% with 24% undecided and Taylor by 41% to 31% with 25% undecided. Brunner bests Portman 39% to 34% with 25% undecided and Taylor by 38% to 31% with 28% undecided.

Even if the three-judge panels moves to certify Democrat Al Franken as the winner of November's US Senate race, Republican Norm Coleman may not give up. The Minneapolis Star Tribune reports that the race may be far from over: "Top Republicans are encouraging Coleman to be as litigious as possible and take his fight all the way to the U.S. Supreme Court if he loses this round, believing that an elongated court fight is worth it if they can continue to deny Democrats the 59th Senate seat that Franken would represent. And in pushing a possible Supreme Court conclusion, Republicans are raising case history that makes Democrats shudder: Bush v. Gore. Coleman’s team says the different methods Minnesota counties use for counting absentee ballots violated the Constitution’s equal protection clause — echoing the same 2000 Florida recount case that effectively handed the presidency to George W. Bush. By making a constitutional case, Republicans are already looking ahead to federal court."

Incumbent US Senator Arlen Specter has a new challenge in Pennsylvania: the state's shifting demographics. According to election data tabulated by Roll Call, his once reliable suburban Philadelphia base "has seen the sharpest drop in Republican registrations in the state -- numbers that collectively exceed his margin of victory over Pat Toomey in the 2004 Republican primary. . . . A simultaneous spike in Democratic enrollment likely means that moderate Republicans switched their registrations over the past four years. The result is bad math for Specter, who will likely face a more conservative GOP electorate in the 2010 primary than he did in 2004."

According to a Quinnipiac University Poll, Democratic incumbent Jon Corzine has falling further behind his hypothetical Republican challenger in New Jersey's 2009 Governor's race. Republican Christopher Christie leads Corzine 46% to 37%, "even though 61 percent of voters don't know enough about the former U.S. Attorney to form an opinion of him." Taken before Corzine's Draconian budget was released, his numbers could be descend even more in the next few weeks. Rasmussen reports an even bigger deficit for Corzine, indicating that he has has now fallen behind Republican challenger Christopher J. Christie by 15 points – 49% to 34%. (7% prefer some other candidate, and 10% are undecided.)

Yesterday, PollTrack reported that New York Governor David Paterson may be in trouble with his 2010 reelection effort. But speculating on the future is not the only gauge of the Democrat's troubles. Over the past two months, his support in the state has eroded dramatically. His current standing with voters is no less than dismal according to a recently released statewide survey: "39% of New York voters now approve of Paterson’s performance as governor, including just 7% who Strongly Approve . . . 59% disapprove of the job the Democratic governor is doing, with 30% who Strongly Disapprove. Only 1% don’t have an opinion." Paterson's dismal approval rating represents a 25% drop since early-January.

A new poll suggests that New York Democratic Governor David Paterson is in bad shape for his upcoming 2010 reelection bid. On all the key measures of public perceptions, the Manhattanville College poll reports Governor Paterson’s broad weakness:

"Governor Paterson is rated poorly when compared to other current and former officials in the State. He is rated favorably by only 41% of the votes and unfavorably by 46%. He is the only statewide official with an overall negative rating. Governor Paterson’s job performance is rated even more poorly by voters, with only 29% rating his performance positively and 66% negatively. The rating is weak across all regions of the state and by gender.If the election for Governor were held today, the majority of voters would prefer to vote for someone else other than Governor Paterson by a margin of 55% to 20% with 25% undecided. Governor Paterson does poorly across all regions and genders."

His current standing with voters is no better, according to another recently released survey: "39% of New York voters now approve of Paterson’s performance as governor, including just 7% who Strongly Approve . . . 59% disapprove of the job the Democratic governor is doing, with 30% who Strongly Disapprove. Only 1% don’t have an opinion." Paterson's dismal approval rating represents a 25% drop since early-January.

The race to replace US Senator Kristin Gillibrand in New York's 20th Congressional district has grown even closer. Democrat Scott Murphy has reduced Republican James Tedisco's once 12% lead to just 4 points, according to a new Siena Research Institute poll. Tedisco now leads the race 45% to 41%. Of note: "While two weeks ago, voters said Tedisco would do a better job than Murphy representing them on six issues, Murphy now leads on two of those issues, including the most important issue for 20th C.D. voters: the economy."

According to a new poll, the race to replace former Rep. Kristin Gillibrand in NY-20--appointed by Gov. Paterson to fill Hillary Clinton's vacated Senate seat--is getting tighter: "Democrat Scott Murphy has slashed into the huge lead once held by Republican Jim Tedisco in the New York special House election scheduled for March 31. . . . Tedisco, the state Assembly minority leader, holds a 7-percentage-point lead over Murphy, a 39-year-old venture capitalist, according to the late February survey by the Benenson Strategy Group. The margin was 44 to 37 percent, with Libertarian Eric Sundwall at 4 percent, and 15 percent of voters undecided.The poll was paid for by the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee. The poll was conducted Feb. 24-25, and included interviews with 400 likely voters in the Upstate New York district."

The latest poll numbers in Connecticut suggerst that incumbent US Senator Chris Dodd may be in trouble in his 2010 election bid. As Time Magazine reports, "Dodd is looking increasingly vulnerable. The silver-haired father of two young girls is facing his toughest re-election fight ever, and he doesn't even have an opponent yet. (CNBC pundit Larry Kudlow and former GOP Representative Rob Simmons have both expressed interest in running.) In a January Quinnipiac poll, 51% of Connecticut voters said they would not vote for Dodd in 2010. 'It's the subject matter — people are watching their tax dollars go into institutions and they wonder when it's going to get better and they wonder where it's going," Dodd says. "I don't find people trying to elbow me out of the way trying to take over jurisdiction of the Banking Committee.'"

Voters in Minnesota, growing weary of the seemingly endless election process for the US Senate, are split of the prospect of a revote, according to the Minneapolis Star Tribune, which reports on a new that shows a scant plurality--46% of likely voters in the state--favor a re-vote in the race between Republican Norm Coleman and Democrat Al Franken. 44% oppose a new vote, a statistical dead heat, given the poll's margin of error of 4.5 percentage points: "Earlier this week, in the midst of the continuing recount trial Coleman questioned whether the three judges presiding in the trial will ultimately be able to decide who won the election. However, his lawyers stopped short of asking the judges to order a new election."

The Tribune continues: "Given the recount results that gave Franken a 225-vote lead and Coleman's failure so far to substantially expand the pool of votes, Republicans in the state look more favorably on a revote than Democrats do.Among self-identified Republicans, 71 percent support a do-over, while 69 percent of Democrats are opposed. Among independent voters, a revote is supported by just 12 percent."

In the latest move in the endless Minnesota US Senate post-election recount, the Minnesota Supreme Court on Friday refused Al Franken's request to be immediately certified as winner of the U.S. Senate election, saying that step "must await a final resolution of the long-running recount trial and possible appeals." The Minneapolis Star Tribune reports that "even as the high court issued its ruling, Franken's lawyers received a sympathetic hearing in their attempt to throw out Republican Norm Coleman's legal challenge of Franken's 225-vote recount margin. In a 5-0 decision, the Supreme Court ruled that DFLer Franken was not entitled to be certified as the election winner until the legal contest has made its way through the state courts. The justices said state law blocks an election certificate from being issued until then."

According to a new poll, GOP US Senator Arlen Specter from Pennsylvania may be the latest northeast Republican in danger of loosing his seat: "53% of Pennsylvanians -- and 66 percent of Republicans -- want someone to replace Specter. "Asked whether they think Specter, a Philadelphia Republican, has done his job well enough to win re-election or whether they'd prefer a 'new person' in that job, registered voters by a 53-38% said it's time to give someone else a chance, according to the poll by Susquehanna Polling and Research. 8% were undecided."

New Jersey Democratic Governor Jon Corzine is in serious trouble in his reelection bid this year. According to a Fairleigh Dickenson University Poll, "40% of voters approve of the job Corzine is doing while 46% disapprove--a reversal from January when 46% approved and 40% disapproved. Among Democrats, 58% approve and 28% disapprove with 14% unsure, a 2-to-1 margin in the governor’s favor, but independents disapprove by 2-to-1 and Republicans disapprove by 3-to-1.  More ominous is that among public employee households, 31% approve while 56% disapprove. That compares to an even split among all other households, 43%-44%." Even more ominous for Corzine: "In a trial heat against the leading Republican contender, Corzine trails former U.S. Attorney Chris Christie by 32%-41%.  In that heat, 73% of Republicans line up behind Christie, while just 55% of Democrats line up behind Corzine."

According to a new poll, NY Governor David Paterson may be in serious trouble with voters. His job approval numbers are at the lowest point in the 27 years that the Marist College Institute for Public Opinion has been surveying public opinions of governor: "Only 26% of registered voters surveyed said Mr. Paterson was doing either a good or excellent job, while 71% said he was doing a fair or poor job. Even Eliot Spitzer had a higher approval rating a year ago, 30%, when he was the governor amid his prostitution scandal. The poll results indicate that voters believe Mr. Paterson is working hard and understands the state’s problems, but suggests people do not have confidence in his ability to lead. Among Democrats, Attorney General Andrew M. Cuomo trounces Mr. Paterson in a hypothetical primary matchup, 62% to %. In a general election,Rudolph W. Giuliani would beat Mr. Paterson, 53% to 38%."

A new poll by the Siena (College) Research Institute reports that with nearly five weeks to go until the special election in the 20th C.D., Republican Assembly Minority Leader James Tedisco has a 46-34 percent lead over Democrat Scott Murphy in the race for Kristine Gillibrand's former House seat: "Tedisco scores better on six specific issues, although his lead over Murphy on five issues – including the economy, the most important issue voters want their next Member of Congress to address – is in single digits. Senator Gillibrand, who represented the district for more than two years, up until five weeks ago, enjoys strong support from voters of all parties."