According to Political Wire, "as a result of Sen. Arlen Specter's decision to run for re-election as a Democrat, CQ Politics is changing its rating of the Pennsylvania U.S. Senate race to "Leans Democratic" from the tossup category, "No Clear Favorite." Similarly, the Cook Political Report changed its rating to Leans Democratic and the Rothenberg Political Report now rates the race as Clear Advantage for the Incumbent Party." What a difference a day can make.

One major reason why incumbent US Senator Arlen Spector jumped to the Democratic party yesterday: he remains very unpopular with fellow Republicans in Pennsylvania. According to a recent poll, the moderate sentaor trailed former conservative Congressman Pat Toomey by 21 points in "an early look at Pennsylvania’s 2010 Republican Primary. 51% of Republican voters statewide say they’d vote for Toomey while just 30% would support Specter. Specter is viewed favorably by 42% of Pennsylvania Republicans and unfavorably by 55%, according to a new Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of voters in the state. Those are stunningly poor numbers for a long-term incumbent senator. Specter was first elected to the Senate in 1980." The Senator chances appear much stronger with Democrats, with whom his approval rating has remained generally high in the state.

A new Minneapolis Star Tribune poll has bad news for 2008 Republican US Senate candidate: most voters want him to concede the race to Democratic challenger Al Franken, who now leads by several hundred votes: "Nearly two-thirds of Minnesotans surveyed think Norm Coleman should concede the U.S. Senate race to Al Franken, but just as many believe the voting system that gave the state its longest running election contest needs improvement. A new poll has found that 64% of those responding believe Coleman, the Republican, should accept the recount trial court's April 13 verdict that Democrat Franken won the race by 312 votes. Only 28% consider last week's appeal by Coleman to the Minnesota Supreme Court 'appropriate.' Large majorities of those polled said they would oppose any further appeal to the U.S. Supreme Court. Should Coleman win at the state Supreme Court, 57% of respondents said Franken should concede. And 73% believe Coleman should give up if he loses at the state's highest court."

It does not look like the endless US Senate race in Minnesota will end anytime soon, as the state's highest court has now delayed any ruling on the matter until at least June: "The state Supreme Court set the schedule today for the legal showdown between Democrat Al Franken and Republican Norm Coleman over the Senate seat that has been vacant since January. The schedule, set by the five justices who will hear Coleman's appeal, appears to hew more closely to his proposed schedule than the quicker one proposed by Franken. Coleman must file his brief in the case no later than next Thursday; Franken has until May 11 to do so. Coleman then has until May 15 to file his reply brief. The justices will hear the appeal on June 1." 

With Democrat Scott Murphy leading by 400-votes out of 160,000 votes cast--and several hundred paper ballots yet to be counted--Republican Jim Tedisco called his opponent yesterday afternoon and conceeded the special election to replace former Democratic representative Kirsten Gillibrand in New York's 20th congressional district. Scott Murphy has thus won the closely contested election and will become the next congressman in what has become a classic swing district. A referendum on Obama or the Republican Party? PollTrack believes that the closeness of the election, in a district with a Republican voter registration advantage of 75,000, while not a barometer of the political fortunes of either party, still suggests trouble for the GOP.

While the tally in the NY-20 Special Election remains close, PollTrack believes that the disposition of the remaining contested absentee ballots--their demographic breakdown--suggest that the Democrat Scott Murphy is headed for victory. As if to underscore this analysis, each new day of counting appears to increase the Democrat's lead:: As of late yesterday, Murphy's lead over Assemblyman Jim Tedisco has grown to 401-votes. According to Politiker NY, "the new tally reflects updated numbers from Warren and Essex counties. Counting is still taking place in Saratoga and Washington counties. Most of Murphy's gain came from Warren County, Democratic Elections Commissioner and Party Chairman Bill Monfort, said. The new overall number reflects a tally from 250 ballots set aside and now counted in the last two days."

Roll Call reports that Tedisco realizes that he has lost the election: "A GOP source on Capitol Hill said Thursday afternoon that Republican Jim Tedisco’s camp has abandoned hope of winning New York’s 20th district special election but that the former state Assembly Minority Leader won’t concede the race to Democrat Scott Murphy until technical legal questions surrounding voter residency issues are resolved.The source said that Tedisco believes the residency issues that came up during absentee vote counting after the March 31 contest could have a bearing on future races in New York. As such, the source said, Tedisco wants to see those issues resolved before ending the legal battle."

The race remains close and is far frrom over in the special election in New York's 20th congressional district to fill the seat vacated by now US Senator Kristen Gillibrand. According to Politiker NY: "The ballot-counting will likely go on for a long time, in light of a just issued court ruling. Judge James Brands declined to set a specific standard regarding valid residency, and said that objections lodged on the basis of ballot applications will stand. While Democrat Scott Murphy leads Jim Tedisco by 273 votes according to the official tally, there are some 1,800 votes left uncounted. The ruling favors the Tedisco camp--or at least buys them time. Brands [ruled] that applications for absentee ballots were correctly provided to both campaigns, and that objections to ballots lodged based on these applications do stand.  "Common sense dictates that in order to intelligently form a decision as to whether an objection should be made, the application's content must of necessity be perused," Brands wrote."

As if we needed another sign of the unpopularity of Connecticut Democratic US Senator Christopher Dodd, a local newspaper reports that "Dodd appears to have looked everywhere but his home state to fuel what pundits anticipate will be one of the most hotly contested races in the nation in 2010. The five-term incumbent reported raising just $4,250 from five Connecticut residents during the first three months of the year while raking in $604,745 from nearly 400 individuals living outside the state. While incumbents often turn to special interests for early campaign fundraising, Dodd's out-of-state total seems unusually high and comes at a time when he has been plagued by poor approval ratings among state voters." The paper concludes, ominously for Dodd: "The meager state fundraising effort also seems antithetical to a campaign strategy to rebuild confidence among Connecticut voters that he is on their side."

Nevertheless, according to the Boston Globe,  a support no more important than the president continues to express confidence in Connecticut's junior senator: "I can't say it any clearer: I will be helping Chris Dodd because he deserves the help. Chris is going through a rough patch. He just has an extraordinary record of accomplishment, and I think the people in Connecticut will come to recognize that... He always has his constituencies at heart, and he's somebody I'm going to be relying on and working very closely with to shepherd through the types of regulatory reforms we need."

Politico reports that the special election in NY-20, now a virtual tie with Democrat Scott Murphy maintaining what may be an insurmountable lead, may wind up being decided by the courts, if the GOP has its way: "As the count begins to wind down, it seems like the GOP is prepared for a protracted court battle, at least by the sound of this internal memo sent this afternoon by a National Republican Congressional Committee staffer:

From: ********** [mailto:********@nrcc.org]
Sent: Thursday, April 16, 2009 12:04 PM
To:
Subject: NY-20 Update

Hi there, I wanted to give you an update on NY-20. As of last night, Tedisco was down by only 86 votes (Official BOE count). This represents a .05% differential between the two campaigns. Seven of the ten counties have completed counting their absentee ballots and all ballot counting should be complete by Friday. 6,200 absentee ballots have been counted so far with approximately 570 remaining. Approximately, 1,550 absentee ballots have been challenged by attorneys for either the Tedisco or Murphy campaigns. These ballots are not included in the overall numbers. The election will most likely be decided in the courts."

The Republican candidate Norm Coleman--despite loosing his race for reelection to Democrat Al Franken, according to a three-judge panel--is clearly prepared to keep the seemingly endless race going. According to the Minneapolis Star Tribune: "Norm Coleman is hitting a different kind of campaign trail this week. The former Republican senator is using a media blitz to convince Minnesotans weary of the recount process and frustrated that they are still a senator short that he has good reason to appeal Democrat Al Franken's victory in the U.S. Senate election trial. And if the Minnesota Supreme Court sees it his way, he said, he thinks he can win."I'm hopeful. I think the law is on our side," he said. In a meeting Thursday with the Star Tribune editorial board, Coleman said that the principle of enfranchising legitimate voters is more important than leaving Minnesota without two senators for another few weeks. But Coleman also acknowledged that many Minnesotans are tired of the seemingly interminable recount process, in which he trails by 312 votes after Monday's ruling by a three-judge panel. He is doing a round of interviews, he said, "for the purpose of letting folks know that we're doing this for a reason."

At this point in the counting of ballots in the special congressional election in NY-20, Democrat Scott Murphy has a 273-vote lead over Republican Jim Tedisco. PollTrack believes that this advantage will be enough to secure victory for the Democrat. The Republican Party, however, has vowed to take the matter to count. Challenged absentee ballots--numbering over 1,000--will be counted on Monday. Most of these have been challenged by the Republicans, suggesting that there is little change that even if all of these were included in the total, Tedisco could overtake Murphy's lead.

A Flood of retiring US House members may spell trouble for the Republican Party. According to Stuart Rothenberg, "House retirements are running a bit ahead of schedule this cycle, at least compared with where they stood in 2005 and 2007. And if they even approach the same numbers as in the past two election cycles, retirements could play a significant part in the eventual 2010 House battleground." Significantly, more Republicans are retiring than Democrats, leading Rothenberg to wonder about GOP prospects in 2010: "The last time more Democrats than Republicans retired was in 1998, when 17 Democrats and 16 Republicans did not seek re-election... Over the past five elections, 106 Republican House Members have not sought re- election, while only 49 Democrats have walked away from their seats -- a significant difference."

Minnesota all over again? Politico reports that there is a battle brewing over absentee ballots in the hotly contested--and now virtually tied--NY-20 special election: "Just like in the Minnesota Senate recount, the special election in New York’s Twentieth District looks like it will be determined by disputed absentee ballots. Both campaigns have already challenged the legality of around 600 absentee ballots, which have been pulled aside and not included in the current count. Democrats estimate that the majority of the challenges -- about 60 percent – have come from Republican Jim Tedisco. Indeed, Republicans have been especially aggressive in challenging absentee ballots in Columbia County, which Murphy won on Election Night by more than 1,880 votes. Tedisco has already challenged at least 63 absentee ballots there, and the campaign has flagged around 200 absentee ballots as questionable.Tedisco’s campaign has also challenged several dozen absentees in Dutchess County, another county that backed Murphy. Nearly all of Tedisco’s challenges center on the voters’ residency. Republicans are arguing that voters who establish a primary residence outside the district – and receive tax benefits there – are ineligible to vote in the district. Democrats dispute that interpretation of state election law, and argue that as long as voters are registered at one address, they’re eligible to vote there."

A three judge panel in Minnesota has declared Democrat Al Franen the winner over Republican Norm Coleman in the November 2008 US Senate race: "Three judges soundly rejected Norm Coleman's attempt to reverse Al Franken's lead in the U.S. Senate election late Monday, sweeping away the Republican's claims in a blunt ruling Coleman promised to appeal. After a trial spanning nearly three months, the judicial panel dismissed Coleman's central argument that the election and its aftermath were fraught with systemic errors that made the results invalid. 'The overwhelming weight of the evidence indicates that the Nov. 4, 2008, election was conducted fairly, impartially and accurately,' the panel said in its unanimous decision. The panel concluded that Franken, a DFLer, 'received the highest number of votes legally cast' in the election. Franken emerged from the trial with a 312-vote lead, the court ruled, and "is therefore entitled to receive the certificate of election."

Democrat Scott Murphy has taken the lead over Republican Jim Tedisco in the hotly contested and razor-close congressional race in NY-20. According to the latest tally from the New York State Board of Elections, Murphy leads by 35-votes. One ray of hope fpr Tedisco: the district's largest--and most Republican--county has yet to report the count of its absentee and overseas ballots. Given the 8% lead that Tedisco held in Saratoga County on election night--and the large pool of voters from this area--are these uncounted paper ballots holding a sharp GOP advantage. If Tedisco leads by the same margin in this voter pool--8%--he will undoubtedly take the lead. Stay tuned.

In the endless Minnesota recount, Democrat Al Franken's lead has expanded a bit: "Franken extended his lead over Republican Norm Coleman in Minnesota's U.S. Senate election, after the counting of about 350 formerly rejected absentee ballots this morning. Franken captured 198 of the ballots, while Coleman took 111. The ballots added 87 votes to Franken's recount lead, enlarging his margin over Coleman to 312. The result makes it even more likely that, barring an unforeseen circumstance, Franken will prevail in the election lawsuit that Coleman filed in January to contest the Democrat's 225-vote recount lead. The three-judge panel presiding over the case has not said when it will issue a final decision."

A new poll continues to show incumbent New Jersey Democratic governor Jon Corzine behind in his effort to win reelection this November: Gov. Jon Corzine continues to struggle with the budget and New Jersey voters even as he officially filed for re-election. According to the most recent poll by Fairleigh Dickinson University’s PublicMind, 49% of voters disapprove of the job Corzine is doing while 40% approve. 'Sometimes timing is everything,' said Peter Woolley, a political scientist and director of the poll. 'He’s the only incumbent governor in the country up for election this year as the financial crisis hits.'  Among Democrats, six of ten approve of the job he is doing (61%), but independents disapprove by more than two to one (58 to 25) and Republicans disapprove by almost five to one (77-16). Just 33% say they have a favorable opinion of Corzine, while 56% have an unfavorable opinion, a shift from measurements taken a month ago that showed 38% favorable and 48% unfavorable. In a general election trial heat against Republicans, Corzine continues to trail former U.S. Attorney Chris Christie by nine points, 33%-42%. Just 58% of Democrats line up behind Corzine while 78% of Republicans prefer Christie. Christie’s name recognition continues to climb, to 62% from 57% a month ago; and 31% have a favorable opinion of the former U.S. Attorney for New Jersey while 12% have an unfavorable view."

According to the New York State Board of Elections, Republican Jim Tedisco Leads Democrat Scott Murphy by 17-votes in the special election to replace congresswoman Kerstin Gillibrand. As of late yesterday, the official tally with most counties now re-canvassed reads as follows:

Scott Murphy (D):   77,017

Jim Tedisco (R):     77,034

The Albany Times Union reports that counties will begin counting absentee ballots today, despite Tedisco insistence that counting resume only after all of the ballots are in: "Lawyers for Republican Jim Tedisco argued Monday the ballots should not be opened until April 14, the day after the deadline for receipt of all absentee ballots, both overseas military and domestic. Lawyers for Democrat Scott Murphy argued that although the elections commissioners in the 10-county district must wait until April 14 to count military ballots, that is no reason not to start counting the other ballots Wednesday, the day after they are due. Judge James Brands agreed with Murphy's legal team. Brands wrote in his decision: 'While this court agrees with counsel that there should be no rush in this process to the detriment of a fair and accurate account, it occurs to this court that both the candidates and the constituency they serve are entitled to a prompt resolution of this contested election which apparently is in a deadlock with each candidate having the same number of votes.'"

A Public Policy Polling’s Arkansas survey reports tepid "approval ratings for Democratic Senator Blanche Lincoln of Arkansas. 45% of voters support the job she’s doing while 40% say they disapprove of her work. Hurting Lincoln’s numbers are poor marks from independents, only 31% of whom say they approve of her performance while 50% rate her negatively. 73% of Democrats but only 22% of Republicans express approval. Lincoln holds solid, but not spectacular, leads over a couple of folks who have been rumored as possible challengers. She has a 46-38 edge over former US Attorney Tim Griffin and leads state senator Gilbert Baker 48-37. Baker and Griffin are both largely unknown to the state’s voters and their numbers can probably be viewed as those of the generic Republican opponent to Lincoln."

Michael Barone, in an excellent analysis of the absentee ballots already received (but still uncounted) in the NY-20 special election, concludes that there are contradictory signs, one pointing to a slight Democratic advantage, the other a slight Republican tilt: "Of those 5,995 votes, 48 percent were cast by registered Republicans, 36 percent were cast by registered Democrats and 16 percent by others. That's a 12 percent Republican advantage, a little less than the 15 percent advantage Republicans have in total party identification. It suggests to me a pretty good Democratic absentee voter drive, since registered Democrats in an Upstate New York district are likelier to be behavioral Democrats than registered Republicans are to be behavioral Republicans. (Reasons: a lot of people register Republican to vote in legislative and local primaries in jurisdictions which are now or have been heavily Republican in general elections; some people may have registered as Republicans years ago out of conviction but lately have been voting Democratic, which is in line with the Democratic trend over the last decade or so in Upstate New York)."

Barone concludes: "Thus this absentee electorate could be a little more Democratic than the voters who voted on election day. However, it's also possible that an effective Republican absentee voter drive targeted those registered Republicans who also indicate that they are behavioral Republicans; if I were setting up an absentee voter drive that's what I'd aim at doing. So this absentee electorate could be a little more Republican than the electorate as a whole. There's no real way to know until the votes are counted."

One factor to consider, as PollTrack observes, is that more absentee ballots were returned from registered Republicans than Democrats. As Tedisco lead inches every so slightly upward in the re-cancassing state, will these votes put him over the top? Or will many of these GOP voters break from their party to vote for Murphy? The outcome of NY-20 ultimately rests on the question of how registered Republicans will break in absentee voting. 

Incredibly, with a number of counties yet to re-canvass, the two candidates are now tied: "As counties continue a routine recount of voting machine results, the two candidates in the 20th Congressional District race are locked in a dead heat. James Tedisco and Scott Murphy have 77,225 votes each as of this afternoon, said John Conklin, spokesman for the state Board of Elections. Warren, Rensselaer, Otsego, Dutchess and Delaware counties have finished recanvassing their voting machines, and the updated number reflects their new totals. The other five counties, which includes Saratoga County, have not finished recounting the results, so the total is likely to change in the coming days, Conklin said." PollTrack notes gain that saratoga County--the largest in the district--is also vastly Republican in registration, so it's unclear how its re-canvassing will effect the outcome. Stay tuned.

The PolitickerNY.com reports that Democrat Scott Murphy's lead has evaporated. As voting machines are re-canvassed in New York's 20th Congressional District, Republican Jim Tedisco has picked up 37 votes, evaporating Democrat Scott Murphy's lead. Republican Tedisco now leads by 12 votes, 77,236 to 77,224. Yesterday, Tedisco trailed by 25 votes after a recanvass in Columbia County. Elections workers in Rensselaer, Dutchess, Columbia and Otsego counties looked over their tallies today. Other counties will do so in the coming days. A possible problem for Murphy: Saratoga County--the largest in the 20th CD one of the most Republican by registration (Tedisco led by 8% in the county on Election Night) has yet to re-canvass their tallies.

The Republican incumbent US Senator in North Carolina, Richard Burr, is looking vulnerable in his 2010 reelection effort. According to a recent poll by Public Policy Polling, "Burr continues to have approval ratings worse than Elizabeth Dole’s at the same point in the election cycle two years ago as he prepares to run for reelection in 2010, the newest survey from Public Policy Polling finds. 35% of voters in the state approve of the job Burr is doing, with 32% disapproving. Dole’s numbers were 43%/31% around this time in 2007. Burr leads Secretary of State Elaine Marshall 43%-35% in a hypothetical contest. Dole led Marshall 46%-35% during the period Democrats were recruiting a candidate two years ago. Even after more than ten years in statewide office and a 2002 Senate campaign, more than half of the voters in the state don’t hold any opinion about Elaine Marshall in an either positive or negative direction. 28% of voters have a positive view of her, 19% a negative one, and 53% have no opinion. Tested against a generic Democratic candidate, Burr leads 42-38. That number is somewhat misleading though as 22% of Democrats, unsure who their nominee will be, say they are undecided while only 12% of Republicans report the same."

A recent poll by conservative-leaning think tank Civitas Institute conducted March 16 to 19 "confirmed what many others have found - Burr continues to struggle with name recognition. Fifty percent of registered voters told Civitas they either has no opinion or were unaware of the first-term Republican senator. That is down from 54% when Civitas asked the same question in January. Thirty-seven percent held a favorable opinion of Burr in the most recent poll, which held steady from January. The Civitas poll also showed Burr trailing Democratic Attorney General Roy Cooper 41% to 38% in a hypothetical match-up."

PollTrack makes one observation: with a very popular Barack Obama at the head of the ticket in 2008, Democratic voter groups turned out in very healthy numbers. With Obama not a factor on the 2010 ballot, will Democrats turn out with the same intensity?

According to a Siena Research Institute survey, Democratic New York Governor David Paterson is very unpopular with voters: "David Paterson is now viewed unfavorably by twice as many New York voters as those who view him favorably, and four times as many voters rate the job he is doing as Governor as only fair or poor compared to those who say he is doing an excellent or good job as Governor . . . . If a Democratic primary for Governor were held today, Paterson would lose to Attorney General Andrew Cuomo by nearly four-to-one, and Paterson would be easily beaten in a general election by former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani."

Siena continues: "Paterson is viewed favorably by 29% of voters and unfavorably by 58%, down from last month‟s 40-47% rating. His job performance rating is 19% positive, 78% negative down from 28-69% last month. Only 14% of voters are prepared to elect Paterson as Governor in 2010, compared to 67% who prefer “someone else.” That‟s down from 19-57% last month."