Presidential Race Maps Writing on the Wall

2009 Election Update: New Jersey--Democrat Corzine Sinks Lower

Posted Jul 31, 2009 at 1:34 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

Incumbent Democratic Governor Jon Corzine has fallen even further behind in his 2009 race for reelection. With a little more than three months to go, Public Policy Polling reports: The pollster's "monthly look at the race for Governor of New Jersey finds Republican Chris Christie leading incumbent Democrat Jon Corzine 50% to 36%. That 14 point lead is up from 10 at the end of June. Christie has a 54-26 lead among independents, and holds Corzine to just 64% of the Democratic vote, while receiving 86% from within his own party. Attack ads running against each candidate right now don’t seem to be having much of an impact on how voters view either of them. 42% have a favorable opinion of Chris Christie with 32% seeing him negatively. That’s virtually unchanged from a month ago when the spread was 43/33.Corzine’s spread is 33/56, also pretty similar to his previous 36/56 number."

VA Governor 2009: Republican McDonnell Now Way Ahead

Posted Jul 30, 2009 at 1:53 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

According to the latest poll by SurveyUSA--one of the most accurate pollsters in the 2008 cycle--Democrat Creigh Deeds has fallen significantly behind in Virginia's 2009 Governor's race: "Republican Bob McDonnell today defeats Democrat Creigh Deeds 55% to 40%. McDonnell, former Attorney General of Virginia, leads by 25 points among men, by 5 points among women. Deeds, a state senator who ran against McDonnell in the tightly-fought 2005 race for Attorney General, leads 6:1 among African Americans, 8:1 among Democrats, and 13:1 among liberals. Among moderates, Deeds is ahead by 8 points. McDonnell carries independents 2:1, and is above 50% in all regions of the state. Gun owners vote 2:1 McDonnell. Those without guns vote 5:4 Deeds. 14% of those who say they voted for Barack Obama in the 2008 Presidential election say they will vote for Republican McDonnell in the gubernatorial contest; 9% of John McCain voters say they will cross over and vote for Democrat Deeds." These numbers siggest that what had been a relatively close race may in face be widening for the Republican.

2009 Election Update: New York

Posted Jul 29, 2009 at 2:06 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

In New York's race for Mayor, it looks like incumbent Independent Michael Bloomberg remains ahead, but by a far smaller margin. While polling is so sparse that PollTrack is not able to make a credible polling average, the Mayor has consistently led his probable challenger, NY Comptroller William C. Thompson Jr. by as much as 25 points. A new Quinnipiac poll released yesterday finds a closer race, with Bloomberg leading Thompson by ten points, 47% to 37%, a Bloomberg advantage of +10%.

2009 Election Update: New Jersey

Posted Jul 28, 2009 at 2:22 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

The Democratic incumbent Governor continues to loose ground in the upcoming election New Jersey. PollTrack's polling average for the state reports that Republican challenger Chris Christie has a huge lead lead over incumbent Jon Corzine: 51.0% to 39.2%, for an Republican advantage of + 11.8%.

2009 Election Update: Virginia

Posted Jul 27, 2009 at 2:00 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

While the race has grown somewhat closer in Virginia's upcoming election for Governor, PollTrack's polling average for the state still shows Republican Bob McDonnell with a modest lead over Democrat Creigh Deeds: 46.3% to 42.8%, for an Republican advantage of + 3.5%.

NY US Senate 2010: Gillibrand and Maloney In Close Race

Posted Jul 24, 2009 at 1:23 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

Incumbent US Senator Kirsten Gillibrand has her work cut out for her in next's years Democratic primary in New York. According to A Rasmussen survey of likely Democratic voters, challenger, Democratic Congresswoman Caroline beats Gillibrand 33% to 27% in a hypothetical match-up. Two things to consider: neither woman is well-known to New York voters, the number of undecideds remains very high at 33%, and the spread is just outside the 5 percent margin of error.In other words, the race remains a toss up according to PollTrack's calculations.

 

Minnesota: Recount Struggle Hurts Ex-Senator's Future In State

Posted Jul 22, 2009 at 1:30 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

According to a new Public Policy Polling survey, "more than half of Minnesota voters say they have an unfavorable opinion of Norm Coleman and his actions during the recount. "52% of respondents said they now view Coleman negatively, with 38% still holding a positive opinion of him. 72% of Republicans but only 10% of Democrats give him good reviews, and independents are split 49/37 against him as well. 54% of voters in the state said the way he handled the recount against Al Franken made them less likely to support Coleman in the future for Governor or some other office, compared to 26% who said it made them more inclined to vote for him in a later contest."

New York Governor Paterson's Approval Edging Upward

Posted Jul 21, 2009 at 2:25 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

While New York's incumbent Democratic Governor, David Paterson, continues to sufffer from low approval ratings--now in the mid-30% range--his standing with voters has inched slightly upward in recent weeks. According to a Siena Research Institute survey, the Democrat, who faces election in 2010, was rated favorably by 36% of registered voters; unfavorably by 56%. The poll, conducted last week, reports an increase from 31% favorability in June 2009 and 27% in May. The recent chaotic breakdown of the NY State Legislature, deadlocked by a leadership struggle over, actually appears to help the Governor:  64% of voters gave Paterson credit for playing some role in resolving the state Senate fight.

NY Governor's Race 2010: Democratic Incumbent Paterson Way Behind

Posted Jul 20, 2009 at 2:09 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

The political climate continues to look bleak for incumbent Democratic Governor David Paterson in New York state. His current approval rating is so low, that he runs far behind his presemptive Democratic primary and GOP general election challengers in hypothetical matchups: "It’s a knockout for Rudy Giuliani if he’s the Republican candidate for governor in New York next year running against incumbent Democrat David Paterson. But if Andrew Cuomo is Giuliani’s opponent, chalk up a win for the Democrat. At least that’s the way it looks in the summer of 2009." A new Rasmussen Reports survey shows "Giuliani beating Paterson by 22 points, 55% to 33%. 8% prefer some other candidate, and five percent are undecided. However, Cuomo tops Giuliani by seven points – 48% to 41% - in a match-up between the two, with 6% favoring some other candidate and 6% not sure who they’ll vote for. At this point, it appears Giuliani is likely to face the tougher of the two Democrats since a survey of Democratic Primary voters shows Cuomo ahead of Paterson 61% to 27%.

NJ Governor 2009: Corzine Trials In Another Poll

Posted Jul 17, 2009 at 2:06 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

A new Monmouth University poll in New Jersey reports that GOP challenger Chirs Christie currently leads incumbent Governor Jon Corzine, 43% to 37% among registered voters. Independent Chris Daggett garners 5% of the vote and 15% of voters remain undecided. The survey continues: "Among likely voters – those who are most probable to vote on November 3rd – Christie leads Corzine by 8 points, 45% to 37%, with Daggett at 4%. While Christie has maintained an advantage in most polls this year, the race is far from over. Only 54% of likely voters say they have definitely made up their mind on which candidate they will be supporting. If voters who are only “leaning” toward a candidate are removed from the equation, Christie’s advantage shrinks to 4 points, 37% to 33%.

Another indication of the volatility of these early polls is the change in favorability rating for the two main candidates. Currently, Jon Corzine stands at 38% favorable to 46% unfavorable, with 16% who have no opinion. This indicates a drop in the governor’s favorable ratings since January, when they stood at 49% favorable to 38% unfavorable. Chris Christie has a better overall rating than his opponent, but there are some warning signs that the Republican should keep an eye on. Currently, Christie’s rating stands at 43% favorable to 24% unfavorable. While the GOP nominee’s favorable rating has remained basically steady since January, his unfavorable rating has climbed by 12 points."

VA Governor 2009: Republican McDonnell Continues To Lead

Posted Jul 16, 2009 at 1:31 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

A new Rasmussen survey reports that "Republican candidate Robert F. McDonnell has rebounded to take a narrow lead over Democrat R. Creigh Deeds in the race for governor in Virginia, highlighting the expected closeness of that contest right up to November." Among VA voters, "McDonnell leads Deeds 44% to 41%; 3% prefer some other candidate, and 12% are undecided . . . McDonnell has an 12-point lead among men. Deeds leads by five among female voters . . . 50% of Virginia voters have a favorable view of McDonnell, with 25% whose opinion is very favorable. 27% regard him unfavorably, including 7% very unfavorable. 22% don’t know enough abut McDonnell to venture an opinion of him. Deeds is seen favorably by 49%, with 19% very favorable, and unfavorably by 35%, including 11% who have a very unfavorable view of him. 17% aren’t sure what they think of the Democrat. McDonnell’s numbers are little changed from last month, but Deeds has suffered a 10-point drop in his favorables."

New Jersey: Democratic Givernor Corzine Sinks Further Behind

Posted Jul 15, 2009 at 1:23 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

Things continue to look bleak for incumbent Democratic Governor Jon Corzine in his 2009 reelection bid. A new Quinnipiac University poll reports that "Republican challenger Christopher Christie is pulling away from Corzine and now holds a 53% to 41% lead among likely voters in the New Jersey Governor's race . . . This compares to a 50 - 40 percent lead for the former federal prosecutor in a June 10 survey. In a three-way matchup among likely voters, Christie leads Gov. Corzine 47% to 38% percent, with 8% for independent candidate Christopher Daggett.  . . . In the two-way face-off, Corzine leads 76 - 19 percent among Democratic likely voters, while Christie leads 89% to 7% among Republicans and 64% to 28% percent among independent voters. This is a jump from Christie's 56 - 32 percent lead among independent voters June 10. In a three-way race, Daggett gets 13 percent of independent voters, with 54 percent for Christie and 24 percent for Corzine."

Ohio: Democrats Have Slight Edge in Key 2010 Statewide Races

Posted Jul 14, 2009 at 1:37 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

According to a new DailyKos/Research 2000 poll on the 2010 election cycle in Ohio reports that if the election were held now, Democratic Gov. Ted Strickland would lead Republican John Kasich in the gubernatorial race, 44% to 39%. In the U.S. Senate race, the Democratic primary is unclear, with no real leader and the lion's share of voters undecided at this early stage: Democrat Lee Fisher leads Jennifer Brunner 22% to 17%. Significantly, both Democrats edge presumptive Republican nominee Rob Portman in a hypothetical general election match up. Fisher leads, 42% to 35%, and Brunner leads, 40% to 36%.

New Jersey: Is The National Economy Hurting Corzine In His Rellection Quest?

Posted Jul 13, 2009 at 1:57 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

One serious problem facing incumbent New Jersey Democratic Governor Jon Corzine in his 2009 reelection race according to Rasmussen Reports: a growing sense in the state that the nation is falling further into economic disarray: Just 4% of New Jersey voters rate the economy as good or excellent while 65% say it's in poor shape. 23% say things are getting better, but 47% say they are getting worse. PollTrack has noted this same phenomena in other states where the economy is suffering and incumbent Democratic governors now in trouble, including the key swing states of Virginia (a race that will also be decided this November) and Ohio.

Ohio Democratic Governor May Be In Trouble in 2010 Reelection Bid

Posted Jul 10, 2009 at 1:17 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

A Quinnipiac University survey suggests that incumbent Democratic Governor Ted strickland of Ohio may be in trouble with votes: "His approval rating--at 46% positive, 42% negative, is down considerably from the 57% to 29% rating he received in the organization's May 6 survey. "This is Gov. Strickland's lowest approval rating since a 45 - 12 score, with 43 percent undecided, February 1, 2007, one month after he took office.  Voters give Gov. Strickland two big thumbs down, disapproving 53 - 33% of the way he is handling the economy and disapproving 53 - 32% of the way he is handling the state budget. Voters also feel 40 - 34%that Gov. Strickland has not kept his campaign promises. These are Strickland's lowest scores on these three measures. U.S. Sen. Mike DeWine, a possible Republican challenger in the 2010 Governor's race, has caught up with the struggling Strickland, with 40% to the Governor's 41%, compared to a 48 - 36% Strickland lead May 6. Another challenger, former Congressman John Kasich, trails Strickland 43 - 38 percent, compared to 51 - 32 percent May 6.

Another Poll Shows Republican Christie Ahead in 2009 NJ Gubernatorial Race

Posted Jul 09, 2009 at 1:40 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

Yet another poll suggests that incumbent New Jersey Democratic Governor Jon Corzine is in trouble: "Just one in five voters (21%) say New Jersey is on the right track and, according to the most recent poll by Fairleigh Dickinson University’s PublicMind™, Republican Chris Christie continues to lead the Democratic incumbent governor by a margin of 45%-39% in the race for governor. Another 15% say they are unsure. Christie, the former U.S. Attorney for New Jersey, has increased his statewide name recognition to 87%, up 25 points since April. However, his ratio of favorable to unfavorable opinion has shifted away from him even as Corzine has begun advertising. One-third of New Jersey voters (34%) say they have a favorable view of Christie versus one quarter (25%) who have an unfavorable view, up from 12% in April. Another quarter (28%) say they have not formed an opinion. . . . Among all voters, 54% say their view of Corzine is unfavorable, while 31% say their view is favorable . . . 48% of Democrats say their view of Corzine is favorable, but 37% say their view is unfavorable. In fact, only two-thirds of Democratic voters (66%) support Corzine, while one in five (20%) say they prefer Christie and 13% are undecided." Not good news for the incumbent Governor.

Republican McDonnell Leads In 2009 VA Governor's Race

Posted Jul 08, 2009 at 1:48 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

According to a new Public Policy Polling survey, Democratic gubernatorial candidate Creigh Deeds has fallen behind his Republican challenger, Bob McDonnell. The GOP candidate now holds a 49% to 43% lead in this fall's race. As PPP notes: "We're detecting little interest in the race right now from black voters or young voters, both groups that were overwhelmingly supportive of Barack Obama and key to his success in the state last year. We currently project black turnout at 16% of the electorate, down from 20% last year, and voters under 30 at 8%, down from 21% last year. Getting those groups excited about his candidacy and out to the polls will be key to Deeds' prospects."

New MN Senator Has Generally Unfavorable National Rating

Posted Jul 07, 2009 at 2:10 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

According to a recent Rasmusen survey, newly minted Minnesota Democratic US Senator, Al Franken, has a relatively low national approval rating: "44% of U.S. voters have an unfavorable opinion of former “Saturday Night Live” comedy . . . as he prepares to join the U.S. Senate as its newest Democratic member . . . 34% have a favorable opinion of Franken, who will be sworn in today as [the next] senator from Minnesota. 22% are not sure what they think of him." Rasmussen alsocorrectly points out that "it is fairly typical for individual legislators to have negative favorability ratings on a national basis."

New York Gov. Peterson's Approval Rating: Dismal

Posted Jul 02, 2009 at 1:52 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

Things seem to just get worse and worse for New York Governor David Paterson. A new Marist College Poll reports: "The news for Governor David Paterson remains grim.  The governor’s approval rating is an abysmal 21%, and with the New York State Senate in disarray, nearly half of the state’s electorate says they disapprove of the way in which the governor is handling the situation while 43% approve.  To make matters even worse, more than six in ten registered voters disapprove of the way Paterson is dealing with the state’s economic crisis.How bad is Governor Paterson’s political situation?  The answer is pretty bad.  According to The Marist Poll’s new statewide survey, about one in five registered voters in New York — 21% — report that Governor Paterson is doing either an excellent or good job in office.  Voters’ view of the governor’s job performance is little changed since The Marist Poll last asked this question in May.  At that time, 19% of voters gave Paterson’s job performance above average marks.  And, the governor still does not receive affirmation from a major share of voters within his own party.  However, he has received a slight bump among Democrats in New York State.  28% believe Governor Paterson is doing an excellent or good job in office.  This compares with the 22% of Democrats he received in May."

Democrat Gov. Jon Corzine Remains Well Behind In NJ Reelection Effort

Posted Jul 01, 2009 at 1:34 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

A new poll suggests that New Jersey's incumbent Democratic Governor has a tough road ahead of him in this year's reelection campaign. A Public Policy Polling survey reports that Republican challenger Chris Christie leads Gov. Jon Corzine by ten points: 51% to 41%: "Christie is being buoyed by a 60-26 advantage with independent voters and a remarkable degree of party unity, as he leads 93-3 with Republicans. By comparison, Corzine has just a 75-16 edge with Democrats . . . There's not much doubt Christie's lead is being fueled largely by Corzine's unpopularity. 56% of voters in the state have a negative opinion of the incumbent, while just 36% view him favorably. For Christie the breakdown is 43% positive and 33% unfavorable."