Presidential Race Maps Writing on the Wall

2009 Election Update: New Jersey Getting Tighter

Posted Aug 31, 2009 at 1:00 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

The race for Governor in New Jersey has grown much closer in recent days according to PollTrack's polling average in the state. For months, Republican challenger Chris Christie has been leading incumbent Democratic Governor Jon Corzine by ten points or more. Now Christie's lead has been cut in half--48% to 42.5%, for an aggregate lead of +5.5%. One just released survey, by Democracy Corps, reports an even closer race, with Christie leading Corzine by just two points, 43%-41%, compared with the Republican's five-point lead two weeks ago.

PollTrack: Back On Monday, 31 August, With Full Coverage

Posted Aug 30, 2009 at 2:35 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

PollTrack is back on Monday 31 August with full daily reporting.

New York 2009: Bloomberg Maintains Comfortable Lead in Mayor's Race

Posted Aug 26, 2009 at 1:48 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

According to a new Quinnipiac poll, incumbent New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg [I] leads his likely Democratic challenger, Comptroller William Thompson [D], 50% to 35%. Compared to a 47% to 37% lead last month, Bloomberg has significantly expanded his advantage over Thompson. Among Republicans, Bloomberg leads 76% to 13%; he leads 54% to 28% among independents; while Democrats split 44% to 44%. The latter number, PollTrack believes, bodes very poorly for Thompson, who cannot win without significant support from fellow Democrats.

New York 2010: Democratic Senator Gillibrand Trails Former GOP Gov Pataki

Posted Aug 24, 2009 at 3:32 PM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

If former Republican Governor George Pataki runs against incumbent Senator Kirsten Gillibrand, he would have a slight edge in next year's race according to a new Siena College poll. In a hypothetical match up, the survey finds former Pataki leading Gillibrand, 42% to 39%. These numbers are so close--and so far away from next year's race--that they are statistically insignificant. Yet, in a sign of the Democrat's relative strength against a lesser known, and less popular Republican, she bests Long Island Rep. Peter King (R-NY), 46% to 24%.

PollTrack: Light Reporting For Next Week

Posted Aug 21, 2009 at 1:45 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

With the President and Congress both on holiday, PollTrack will be reporting only sporatically next week. We will return with full daily reporting and updates on Monday 31 August. Nevertheless, keep checking in daily next week for breaking news and/or important updates.

New Jersey Governor 2009: Corzine Does Slighlty Better Against Christie

Posted Aug 20, 2009 at 1:36 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

According to Democratic sponsored poll, incumbent Governor Jon Corzine has improved his standing against Republican challenger Chris Christie in New Jersey's upcoming governor's race. While PollTrack's average has Christie leading by about +11%--49.3% to 38.0%, a new GQR survey shows the race much closer, with the Republican leading, 43% to 37%.

New York 2010: Cuomo Crushes Paterson In Democratic Primary

Posted Aug 19, 2009 at 12:48 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

According to a new Quinnipiac University poll, NY State Attorney General Andrew Cuomo would crush incumbent Governor David Paterson in the 2010 Democratic gubernatorial primary: The poll finds Cuomo trouncing Paterson (D) in a possible gubernatorial primary, 61% to 15%. In general election match ups, Republican Rudy Giuliani leads Paterson, 53% to 33%, while Cuomo beats Giuliani, 48% to 39%.

Mass Governor In Political Free Fall

Posted Aug 17, 2009 at 2:19 PM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

The latest polling news is dire for the incumbent Massachusetts Democratic Governor in next year's reelection race: "The latest quarterly poll from MassInsight, a nonprofit research institute, spells more bad political news for Governor Deval L. Patrick: His job-approval numbers have plunged to levels not seen in decades for a Massachusetts governor. In a survey of 445 residents, taken last month and released this week, only 19 percent of respondents gave him a positive job rating, while 77 percent rated it fair or poor. One percent said he was doing an excellent job. Those numbers are significantly worse than last month's Globe poll, which also found him to be struggling politically."

WASHINGTON POST Poll: Republican Has Clear Lead in 2009 VA Governor's Race

Posted Aug 17, 2009 at 2:03 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

A new Washington Post poll suggests that the Republican candidate for Governor in Virginia, Bob McDonnell has a clear lead over his Democratic opponent, R. Creigh Deeds: "McDonnell is favored over Deeds among all registered voters, 47 to 40 percent, and is up by an even steeper margin, 54 to 39 percent, among those who say they are certain to vote in November. In vote-rich Northern Virginia, where President Obama and other successful Democrats have won large majorities, the two run about even, 45 percent for Deeds to 42 percent for McDonnell among all registered voters. Even in the innermost Washington suburbs -- which the Democrat from rural Bath County won handily in his party's primary -- the candidates are running about even. McDonnell, who lives outside Richmond, leads by nine points in the rest of the state. McDonnell's advantage in a race being watched nationally as an early electoral test for Obama serves as a warning sign for Democrats, who are eager to hold on to the governor's mansion in what has become a crucial swing state."

CQ Politics Analysis: Democrats Have Lock On 2010 Congressional Elections

Posted Aug 14, 2009 at 2:35 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

According to an analysis by CQ Politics, the Democratic Party looks strong in the 2010 Congressional elections: "Democrats have a virtual lock on 198 seats for November 2010, and in another 31 districts the opportunities for a GOP upset are tenuous at best. Put those groups together and you have 229, well above the 218-seat majority threshold. In addition, one district that’s in Republican hands at the moment, which covers most of New Orleans, is expected to return to its Democratic roots next fall." Still, CQ Politics concludes that "Yet House election history alone gives the Republicans reason to hope for better results after the back-to-back setbacks of 2006 and 2008 thrust them deeply into the minority. The 2010 elections for the House will be the first since Barack Obama was elected president. With very rare exceptions over many decades, the party holding the White House has lost seats in the first such midterm election."

2009 Election Update: Virginia--Republican Expands Lead

Posted Aug 13, 2009 at 2:23 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

According to a new Rasmussen survey, Republican Bob McDonnell has expanded his lead over Democrat Creigh Deeds in Virginia's Gubernatorial race: "Republican candidate Robert F. McDonnell has opened a nine-point lead over Democrat R. Creigh Deeds in the race for governor in Virginia. {The latest] survey of Virginia voters finds McDonnell leading Deeds 47% to 38%. Three percent (3%) prefer some other candidate, and 12% are undecided. These figures reflect an improvement for McDonnell. A month ago, the GOP hopeful led by just three percentage points. Since then, he has gained three percentage points of support while Deeds has lost three percentage points.

2009 Election Update: New Jersey

Posted Aug 12, 2009 at 1:23 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

Overall, things continue to look bleak for incumbent Democratic Governor Jon Corzine in his race against Republican challenger Chris Christie. The latest PollTrack average in the state shows the GOP candidate with a whopping +12.1% lead: 50.3% to 38.2%. Even more daunting for Corzine: Christie has jumped over the all-important 50% threshold. (Still, the latest Quinnipiac Poll suggests a slight uptick for Cprzine; it has Christie leading by +9%, 51% to 42%.)

2010 Congressional Races: Are Missouri and Ohio Bellwethers?

Posted Aug 11, 2009 at 1:29 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

In presential races, Missouri and Ohio have been bellwethers of sorts. But can we say the same of these staes in the 2010 Congressional Election? The answer according to MSNBC First Read is, yes: "Without a doubt, the two biggest Senate battlegrounds next year will be in the Show Me State and Buckeye State, and they’ll give us a good read on the health of the two political parties. If the Democrats lose both, it will suggest that the party’s successes in these states from 2006-2008 -- including gubernatorial and senatorial wins in both states, as well as Obama winning in Ohio and narrowly losing in Missouri -- might have come to an end. But if Republicans lose both -- with well-known figures from Bush years at the top of the ticket (Roy Blunt in Missouri and Rob Portman in Ohio) -- that would suggest that the Bush and GOP brands are still major problems for the party. Bottom line: The best way to judge who "wins" or "loses" the 2010 midterms will be in these two states, pure and simple. And they will be the most dominant races the media will focus on next year."

2009 Election Update: Virginia

Posted Aug 10, 2009 at 3:22 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

While Democratic Creigh deeds has slightly improved his standing in the Virginia's 2009 Governor's race against Republic Bob McDonnell according to a new poll, the underlying numbers suggests that Deeds is still in trouble. While the DailyKos/ Research 2000 poll finds Bob McDonnell (R) leading Creigh Deeds (D), 51% to 43%, the Republic is up over the all-important 50% mark and the poll's internal breakdown suggests this might not change soon: "People sitting on the sidelines as 'undecided' back in mid-June, post-primary, are now falling behind McDonnell. And the gains come almost entirely from independents -- they leaned McDonnell 47% to 44% back in June, but now break heavily for the Republican 55% to 40%. McDonnell has even managed to peal away a few points of Democratic support, growing from 13% to 17%. Deeds, for his part, garners a scant 6% of Republican support."

2009 Election Update: New Jersey

Posted Aug 07, 2009 at 1:18 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

It looks like Democrat Jon Corzine remains in the danger zone for an incumbent Governor. A new DailyKos/Research 2000 poll in New Jersey reports that Republican Chris Christie leads Corzine by +8%--48% to 40%. The survey reports that there is "surprising little movement in the last several months. Corzine is wallowing in the panic zone for an incumbent, and Christie is hovering around the 50% mark. This poll is actually the most optimistic for Corzine from the most recent batch." Despite Corzine's very slightly improved standing in this poll, a new Rasmussen Reports survey finds Christie leading by 13 points, 50% to 37%. With Christie hovering at the 50% mark and Corzine stuck in the high-30s, it may be very difficult for the Democrat to recover in time for the 2009 election, now less than three months away.

2009 Election Update: New York

Posted Aug 06, 2009 at 2:10 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

If pollsters are any guide, the 2009 race for Mayor of New York remains a bit under the radar compared to Gubernatorial races in New Jersey and Virginia. With only one poll released since June--a Quinnipiac survey issued last week--it's very difficult for PollTrack to provide credible analysis of the state of the race. As reported earlier, incumbent Independent Mayor Mike Bloomberg registered a lead as high as +18% (last May). According to the most recent poll, it's down to +10%, but PollTrack cautions that a single poll is a much less accurate gauge than a full-dress poll average.

2009 Election Update: Virginia

Posted Aug 05, 2009 at 1:15 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

Bob McDonnell, the Republican candidate for Governor in Virginia has expanded his lead over Democrat Creigh deeds, according to a new Public Policy Polling survey. The numbers may say more about the enthusiasm of GOP vs Democratic voters as well as the declining approval rating of President Obama in the state: "In a result probably owing more to the shift against Democrats in the national political climate than anything going on in Virginia, Bob McDonnell now leads Creigh Deeds 51-37 in the race to become the next Governor of Virginia."

PPP continues: "It’s not that voters are changing sides from last fall- the 5% of John McCain’s voters planning to vote for Deeds is actually equal to the 5% of Barack Obama’s voters planning to vote for McDonnell. But Republicans, on a losing streak in Virginia, appear to be more motivated about heading to the polls at this point three months before the election . . . McDonnell has a 52-33 lead among independents and has locked up 94% of the
Republican vote while Deeds is at 80% with Democrats. There is some good news for Deeds in the poll, as he leads 64-3 among African Americans. The 33% of undecided voters in that group will likely move toward Deeds as the election approaches, tightening up the race. 'As Barack Obama’s approval rating in Virginia declines we’re finding that Bob McDonnell is the beneficiary,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. 'That said, Creigh Deeds was 16 points back five weeks before the primary and charged back to win so it’s way too early to count him out.'"

2009 Election Update: New Jersey

Posted Aug 04, 2009 at 1:54 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

In the state of New Jersey, incumbent Governor Jon Corzine's reelection numbers can be described in a single word: dismal. His opponent, for state proescutor, Republican Chris Christie not only maintins a significant lead, but has jumped over the all-important 50% mark. The race is as follows, according to PollTrack's polling average: 51.5% to 37%, giving the Republican a whopping lead of +14.5%.

2009 Election Update: Virginia

Posted Aug 03, 2009 at 1:33 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

With more recent polls indicating a jump in support for the Republican candidate for Governor in Virginia, the 2009 race is starting to appear difficult for the Democrats. As of Sunday evening, the aggregate polling average in the states puts Republican Bob McDonnell at 48.3% and Democrat Creigh Deeds at 42%. Furthermore, McDonnell is inching perilously close to the 50% mark. The Republican advantage in the state has almost doubled from a week ago and now stands at +6.3%.