Presidential Race Maps Writing on the Wall

AZ US Senate 2010: John McCain In Trouble For Reelection

Posted Nov 30, 2009 at 12:50 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

According to a Rasmussen Reports survey in Arizona, incumbent US Senator John McCain may be in trouble in his 2010 reelection bid. McCain and GOP Rep. J. D. Haywoth are virtually tied in a Republican primary match-up for next year's Senate race: McCain leads Hayworth 45% to 43% percent, with anti-illegal immigration activist Chris Simox at 4%.

NY Gov. 2010: Paterson Way Behind In Democratic Primary

Posted Nov 25, 2009 at 1:42 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

According to a new Marist institute survey, incumbent Governor David Psterson his way behind both his Democratic rivals--especially popular Attorney General Andrew Cuomo--and in hypothetical match ups with his Republican rivals: "Among Democrats statewide, 72% report they would support Cuomo if the Democratic primary were held today while just 21% say they would vote for Paterson . . . Former U.S. Representative Rick Lazio has made no bones about the fact that he wants to be the Republican nominee for governor.  But, how does he stack up against his possible, Democratic opponents?  If Andrew Cuomo were the Democratic nominee and the election were held today, Cuomo would defeat Lazio by an almost three-to-one margin.  Cuomo receives 69% of voters’ support to Lazio’s 24%.  When Lazio is pitted against Governor David Paterson, the race is more competitive.  In fact, voters divide.  44% of the electorate would back Paterson, and 44% would cast their ballot for Lazio.  12% are undecided.  Little has changed in both of these hypothetical matchups since Marist last asked about about them in mid-September.

NY US Senate 2010: Gillibrand and Pataki In Close Race

Posted Nov 24, 2009 at 2:03 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

If the 2010 US Senate election in New York were help now, Rasmussen reports, Incumbent Democrat Kirsten Gillibrand would just squeak by her presumptive Republican challenger, former NY Governor George Pataki. In the hypothetical match up, Gillibrand bests Pataki, 45% to 42%. 

MA US Senate: Coakley Holds Comfortable Lead in Democratic Primary

Posted Nov 23, 2009 at 2:04 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

according to a Boston Globe poll, Democratic Attorney General Martha Coakley holds a solid lead in the four-way Democratic race for Ted Kennedy's open US Senate seat. Still, with just over two weeks until primary day, nearly three-quarters of likely voters have yet to decide who they will support. Coakley leads with 43%, followed by Rep. Michael Capuano (D) with 22%, Steve Pagliuca (D) with 15% and Alan Khazei (D) with 6%.

MN Gov. 2010: Norm Coleman Favorite For MN GOP Nomination

Posted Nov 20, 2009 at 1:35 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

According to a poll by Rasmussen Reports, about half of Minnesota Republicans would back Republican former Sen. Norm Coleman, should he run for governor in 2010. Coleman--defeated for reelection to the US Senate earlier this year in a seven-month recount battle--has not indicated that he intends to run. But if he does, he starts with a huge lead over the rest of the GOP field among likely voters, with a whopping 50% of the vote. Second place, at 11% percent, goes to state Rep. Marty Seifert, who stepped down from his post as House minority leader to run for governor.

NY Gov. 2010: Democrat Paterson Now Behind ALL Hypothetical Challengers

Posted Nov 19, 2009 at 1:02 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

According to a new Siena Institute poll, incumbent Democratic NY Governor David Paterson has fallen behind all of his potential GOP challengers: "Less than one year before the 2010 elections and less than 10 months before the currently scheduled primary date, Governor David Paterson trails Attorney General Andrew Cuomo by nearly 60 points in a potential Democratic primary, trails former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani by more than 20 points, and for the first time trails former Congressman Rick Lazio by three points, according to a new Siena (College) Research Institute poll of registered voters. Of 26 potential candidates for statewide office next year that Siena tested – Republicans and Democrats, incumbents and challengers – only Cuomo and Senator Charles Schumer on the Democratic side and Giuliani and former Governor George Pataki on the Republican side have favorability ratings over 50 percent."


In the pending Democratic primary, Paterson fares even less well: “'While the Governor’s favorability rating saw slight improvement, no other measure of his electability increased noticeably. In a Democratic primary against Cuomo, Paterson fell even further behind, 75-16 percent, and in a general election matchup against Lazio, Paterson trails for the first time ever, albeit closely 42-39 percent. In the Democratic primary, Cuomo now has a two-to-one lead over Paterson among African American voters,'” said Siena pollster Steven Greenberg. 'While it’s true that the Governor’s new commercials had only been airing for less than a week while Siena was polling, it seems clear that he’s going to have to spend a lot of campaign funds very early to even have a chance of improving the measurements by which voters judge David Paterson.'”

NJ Gov. Corzine's Lack Of Popularity Sealed His Fate

Posted Nov 18, 2009 at 1:06 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

According to a newly released Rasmussen survey, "60% of New Jersey voters say most of Republican Chris Christie’s winning support last week came from those who were voting against his opponent, incumbent Democratic Governor Jon Corzine . . . [The poll] finds that just 22% think the Republican candidate won the race with support from those who were actually voting for him rather than against Corzine. 18% are not sure. When pressed for specifics, 45% of voters in the state say the primary reason Christie was elected governor was dissatisfaction with Corzine’s job performance. 27% think the economy was the main reason for Christie’s victory, while 16% point to a general desire for change.
Only five percent 5% name Christie’s campaign promises as the chief reason he was elected. 2% attribute victory to his record as a prosecutor."

Democratic Brand Suffering In Ohio

Posted Nov 17, 2009 at 1:54 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

What a difference a year can make in politics. A new Quinnipiac University poll suggests that the Democratic brand--and President Obama--are both suffering a decline in overall support in the key swing state of Ohio: The poll indicates a shift toward the Republicans, exemplified by President Obama's disapproval rating in the (50%) which is now higher than his approval rating (45%). And Republican Bob Portman, a former House member from the Cincinnati area and the party-endorsed candidate for the Senate, now holds slight leads--of +3% and +4% respectively--over Democrats Lee Fisher, the lieutenant governor, and Jennifer Brunner, the Ohio secretary of state. Given the bellwether status of the state, these numbers could signal problems ahead for the Democrats, both in locally and nationally.

MA US Senate: Coakley Holds Large Lead in Democratic Primary

Posted Nov 16, 2009 at 2:07 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

In the upcoming race to chose a Democrat to run in January's special election to fill the late Ted Kennedy's Senate seat in Massachusetts, Attorney General Martha Coakley is wll ahead of the pack: 'Coakley continues to dominate the Democratic primary race for the Senate seat held by Edward M. Kennedy until his death Aug. 25. She leads in nearly every category of voter, according to a Suffolk University/7 News poll. Coakley, the only statewide officeholder in the field of four candidates, has a plurality among male and female voters as well as across every region of the state. . . . Overall, the survey shows Coakley taking 44% of the primary vote, with Boston Celtics co-owner Stephen Pagliuca second at 17%. They are followed by Rep. Michael E. Capuano at 16% and Alan Khazei, co-founder of the community service program City Year, at 3%."

CT Governor 2010: Jodi Rell Quits

Posted Nov 13, 2009 at 1:12 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

One reason why Republican Gov. Jodi Rell of CT has chosen not to seek reelection: recent polls show her vulnerable next year. A new Quinnipiac University Poll reports that "in an early look at the 2010 election for Connecticut Governor, Secretary of State Susan Bysiewicz runs best among possible Democratic challengers, trailing Republican incumbent Jodi Rell 46 - 40 percent . . . Gov. Rell leads 91 - 5 percent among Republicans and 56 - 26 percent among independent voters, while Bysiewicz leads 74 - 12 percent among Democrats. Businessman Ned Lamont trails Rell 53 - 33 percent and Stamford Mayor Dan Malloy loses 52 - 33 percent . . .  In a Democratic primary match up, Bysiewicz gets 26 percent to 23 percent for Lamont, with 9 percent for Malloy. No other contender tops 3 percent." Still with Rell under 50% in one match up and just grazing the halfway mark in two others, her numbers do not look particularly strong for reelection. 

Generic Congressional Ballot: Who's Really Ahead?

Posted Nov 12, 2009 at 1:10 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

With the full House up for election next year, who's really ahead in terms of political support. The Congressional Generic ballot, which measures general support for the two major parties in these races, offers a snapshot of voter sentiment. Yet, given dramatic differences in likely voter models, three major polling organizations come out with startlingly different results. For the first time in months, for example, Republicans have moved ahead of Democrats by 48% to 44% among registered voters in the latest update on Gallup's generic congressional ballot for the 2010 House elections, after trailing by six points in July and two points last month. Two other pollsters also weigh in, with contradictory results:

  CNN/Opinion Research Democrats 50, Republicans 44 Democrats +6
Rasmussen Reports Democrats 38, Republicans 42

 

Republicans +4

 

VA Governor 2009: Obama Hurt Democrat Deeds

Posted Nov 11, 2009 at 1:09 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

Pollster Glen Bolger writes that President Obama became an important factor in voters' decision making in the 2009 Virginia gubernatorial race: "By a 55% to 35% margin, voters thought it was best to elect a governor who would serve as a check and balance to Obama . . . Concern about his policies overreaching permeated to a gubernatorial campaign and helped widen the size of McDonnell's win. It allowed the campaign to focus on issues that hadn't been working in recent years for Republican candidates. Concern about Obama's policies on spending, taxes, and jobs allowed McDonnell to thoroughly dominate those issues. The checks and balances message is a key one, but the bigger lesson about Obama's impact on Virginia is that his policies have put fiscal and economic messages back into play for Republicans."

Special Congressional Elections Not Kind To The GOP

Posted Nov 10, 2009 at 1:33 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

Special elections for vacated congressional seats in recent years have not been kind to the Republican Party. According to Politico "lost amid the Republican euphoria surrounding Tuesday's elections is this inconvenient fact: The GOP just got its clock cleaned, again, in another high-stakes House special election . . . It shouldn't have come as a surprise, since Republicans have lost 20 of the past 29 House special elections, dating back to January 2003. And in perhaps the most worrisome aspect of the trend, the GOP lost its fifth consecutive competitive special election in Republican-friendly territory."

NY-23: Political Realigniment or Fluke?

Posted Nov 09, 2009 at 1:04 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

Last Tuesday's special election in New York's 23rd congressional district was dramatic in in terms of its result: no Democrat has held this seat in over a century. So, does the result suggest a permanent realignment or a fluke in the district? The answer is unclear at this point. As Stuart Rothenberg suggests, a divided Republican party--fraught with in-fighting--may well have handed the seat to the Democrat in a largely GOP district: "Bill Owens' victory in New York's 23rd was the good news for Democrats this week and continued the party's winning streak in competitive House special elections. But the dynamic that helped Owens win- including a divided Republican Party- can't be ignored and aren't likely to be replicated again. For now, his reelection next year is a pure toss-up." Still, PollTrack wonders if the party's internal squabbles will cause it to lose more seats next year, as ultra-conservative attempts to knock off Republican moderates in the primaries results in unelectable GOP contenders in the general election.

PollTrack Will Be Back On Monday, 9 November, With Full Reporting

Posted Nov 05, 2009 at 1:26 PM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

Polling Highly Inaccurate in NY-23

Posted Nov 05, 2009 at 12:26 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

Polls in NY-23 were highly inaccurate, in the end, for three reasons: [1] congressional districts are very difficult to sample, with too small a population to get a readable and representative sample. [2] the race was highly volatile [3] one candidate dropped out, thus making it almost impossible to gauge where here supporters would ultimately wind up over such a short time period. The polling director of Public Policy Polling, which was way off in its numbers in the district, writes: ""I made a poor judgment call by not just killing it when Scozzafava dropped out and then endorsed Owens. Like any pollster we will make mistakes, we will just try not to make the same ones twice. Obviously the bizarre machinations in the race last weekend made it extremely volatile and if we ever a poll a race this strange again we will make better decisions (or maybe make the most prudent decision to just sit such a contest out!) But I apologize for putting bad information out there, it is very embarrassing."

Anti-Gay Marriage Forces Win In Maine

Posted Nov 04, 2009 at 2:39 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

With nearly all precincts in, the anti-gay marriage forces have won the referendum to reject the state's recent legislative action to allow gay couples to marry:

REJECT SAME-SEX MARRIAGE LAW
Yes 291000 52.84%
No 259741 47.16%

NY-23: Democrat Owens Projected Winner

Posted Nov 03, 2009 at 3:58 PM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

Democrat Bill Owens has been projected the winner in the special election in New York's 23rd congressional district.

Maine Gay Marriage Vote: Razor Close, Now With Gay Marriage Opponents Leading

Posted Nov 03, 2009 at 3:15 PM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

Razor close in Maine, with opponents of gay marriage now maintaining a slight edge:

REJECT SAME-SEX MARRIAGE LAW
Yes 155361 50.31%
No 153453 49.69

Bloomberg Wins In New York

Posted Nov 03, 2009 at 2:53 PM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

Several news organizations have declared Michael Bloomberg as the winner of the Mayor's race in New York City over his Democratic Challenger, Bill Thompson.

NY-23: Close, With Democrat Leading

Posted Nov 03, 2009 at 2:51 PM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

With 63% of precincts reporting in the special election in New York's 23rd Congresional District, Democrat Bill Owens leads, but the race remains close:

 

Scozzafava (r) 5%

Owens (d) 49.3%

Hoffman (I) 45.5%

Looks Like A Bloomberg Victory In New York

Posted Nov 03, 2009 at 2:26 PM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

With Mike Bloomberg opening a modest +3% lead in New York City--and the borough of Queens, the independent mayor's strongest turf, holding the lion's share of votes still out--it looks like the incumbent mayor is headed for victory. Stay tuned.

AP Projection: Republican Chris Christie Wins In New Jersey

Posted Nov 03, 2009 at 2:10 PM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

The Associated Press projects Republican Chris Christie the winner over incumbent Democrat Jon Corzine in New Jersey's gubernatorial race.

Maine Gay Marriage Vote: It Could Not Get Any Closer

Posted Nov 03, 2009 at 2:06 PM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

While the vast majority of votes have yet to be counted--only 132 precincts have now reported out of 605--the vote on Maine's gay marriage referendum could not get any closer:

REJECT SAME-SEX MARRIAGE LAW
No 56659 50.62%
Yes 55267 49.38%

MSNBC Reverses Projection In New York Mayor's Race

Posted Nov 03, 2009 at 1:52 PM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

NBC has reversed its projection of Independent Michael Bloomberg as the winner of the Mayor's race in New York City over his Democratic Challenger, Bill Thompson. Stay tuned.

Gay Marriage Vote Close In Maine

Posted Nov 03, 2009 at 1:40 PM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

The pro-Gay marriage forces ahead in Maine, but the vote on the referendum grows still closer, with just 100 of 605 precincts reporting:

REJECT SAME-SEX MARRIAGE LAW
No 37801 51.30%
Yes 35892 48.70%

Gay Marriage Ahead, But Vote Grows Closer

Posted Nov 03, 2009 at 1:21 PM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

The pro-Gay marriage forces remain ahead in Maine, but the vote on the referendum grows closer, still with just 79 of 605 precincts reporting:

 

REJECT SAME-SEX MARRIAGE LAW
No 32610 52.58%
Yes 29413 47.42%

No Exit Polls In New York City

Posted Nov 03, 2009 at 1:15 PM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

For those of you waiting for a projection in New York City's mayoral race, a note of caution: be patient. There were no exit polls in New York City, so the race will be called the old fashioned way--with raw numbers.

Gay Marriage Ahead In Maine

Posted Nov 03, 2009 at 1:06 PM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

As of 9:00 PM, with 32 of 605 precincts reporting, the supporters of gay marriage are leading (no is PRO gay marriage:

 


No 14988 54.48%
Yes 12524 45.52%

Projection: Republicans Sweep All Statewide Contests In VA

Posted Nov 03, 2009 at 12:11 PM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

CNN projects that Republicans will sweep all three statewide races in Virginia: governor, lieutenant governor, and attorney general.

Independent Voters In New Jersey Breaking For Republican

Posted Nov 03, 2009 at 12:09 PM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

Exit polls in New Jersey suggest that independent voters are breaking for Republican Chris Christie by a wide, +20%, margin over incumbent Democratic Governor Jon Corzine. Once again, these voters are behaving very differently from last year, where New Jersey independents supported President Obama by a considerable margin.

UPDATE: Christie appears to be winning independent voters by 25%

Exit Polls In New Jersey Suggest A Tight Race

Posted Nov 03, 2009 at 12:04 PM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

It looks like a long night in New Jersey as Exit Polls suggests a very tight race.

AP Projection: Republican Bob McDonnell Wins VA Gubernatorial Race

Posted Nov 03, 2009 at 11:56 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

The Associated Press projects that Republican Bob McDonnell has won the Virginia gubernatorial election over his Democratic opponent Creigh Deeds.

VA Governor's Race: Young Voters Stayed Home

Posted Nov 03, 2009 at 11:13 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

According to exit polls, only 10% of young voters showed up in Virginia today, versus 20% in last year's election. Again, bad news for Democrat Deeds. Another issue: does this drop off--as well as the loss of independent voters--also suggest a weakening of the Obama coalition? 

Exit Polls Suggest Independents Breaking For Republican In VA

Posted Nov 03, 2009 at 11:09 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

Early exit poll suggests that independent voters in Virginia are breaking for Republican Bob McDonnell by a wide margin--60% to 39%. If this trend holds, it is very bad news for Democrat Creigh Deeds.

Projection: Republican Bob McDonnell Leads In VA Gubernatorial Race

Posted Nov 03, 2009 at 11:02 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

As expected, CNN projects that Republican Bob McDonnell is leading the Virginia gubernatorial election over his Democratic opponent Creigh Deeds.

Economy Top Issue For New Jersey Voters

Posted Nov 03, 2009 at 10:30 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

According to CNN Exit Polls in New Jersey: "The economy was the most important issue on the minds of . . . voters Tuesday . . . Nearly a third of the voters heading to the polls in this off-year election pitting Democratic Gov. John Corzine against Republican Chris Christie, 31 percent, said the economy was the most important issue, while 26 percent said property taxes, 20 percent indicated corruption and 18 percent identified health care."

Virginia: "

CNN Exit Polls NJ & VA: Obama Not A Factor

Posted Nov 03, 2009 at 10:26 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

According to CNN's Exit Poll in New Jersey & Virginia:

New Jersey: "Six in 10 voters said Tuesday that President Obama had no effect on their vote in this off-year gubernatorial election, according to early CNN Exit Poll data. Obama visited New Jersey this week to campaign for embattled Gov. Jon Corzine, who is locked in a tough re-election contest with Republican Chris Christie. When asked if Obama had an effect on their vote, 60 percent responded he was not a factor, 20 percent said their vote was meant to express opposition to him, and 19 percent said it was to support him."

Virginia: "There's been plenty of talk by political pundits that Virginia's gubernatorial contest was a referendum on President Barack Obama, but voters don't agree . . . Fifty-five percent of Virgina voters polled say that Obama was not a factor in how they voted, with 24 percent suggesting that their vote was meant to express opposition to the president, and 18 percent indicating that their vote was meant to express support for Obama."

Bulletin: Turnout High In Maine

Posted Nov 03, 2009 at 5:51 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

According to Ben Smith at Politico, voter turnout is high in Maine, approaching 50%, which may bode well for supporters of gay marriage: "Maine Secretary of State Matt Dunlap told me just now that turnout there is far exceeding his projections -- news that would be good news for backers of same-sex marriage. "We're seeing heavy and very steady turnout," he said, attributing the surprise to the contested vote on a "people's veto" of a same-sex marriage law driving Mainers to the polls."

LIVE BLOG 7:00 PM EST TONIGHT Tuesday, 3 November

Posted Nov 02, 2009 at 3:44 PM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

PollTrack will be blogging live tonight, Election Night, tracking and interpreting results starting at 7:00 PM EST. So check in and stick with us for continuous coverage of the gubernatorial races in Virginia and, New Jersey,mayoral race in New York City, special election in NY-23, and the Maine "Gay Marriage" initiative and other races.

PollTrack FINAL Polling Average: A Summation

Posted Nov 02, 2009 at 11:16 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

Here is a brief summary of PollTrack's FINAL polling averages for five key races in tomorrow's Off-Year Election:

 

Maine Gay Marriage Referendum

Lead: FOR gay marriage--+2.7%

 

New Jersey Governor

Lead: Republican Chris Christie--+0.5%

 

Virginia Governor

Lead: Republican Bob McDonnell--+14.4%

 

NY-23 Special Election

Lead: Conservative Doug Hoffman--+8.0%


New York City Mayor

Lead: Independent Michael Bloomberg--+12.7%

 

 

Maine Gay Marriage Vote: Close. But Final Average In Favor Of Gay Marriage

Posted Nov 02, 2009 at 10:55 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

PollTrack's poll average for the so-called "gay marriage" initiative in Maine shows the race very close.

 

For keeping the law that legalized gay marriage: 49.3%

Against keeping the law that legalized gay marriage: 46.6%

Undecided: 4.3%

 

Lead: FOR gay marriage--+2.7%

Will Philip Spooner Sway Main "Gay Marriage" Vote?

Posted Nov 02, 2009 at 10:07 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

Will an 87-year old World War II veteran play a key role in tomorrow's vote in Maine's gay marriage referendum? The Los Angeles Times seems to think it's possible: "Polls have shown an extremely tight race, and supporters of same-sex marriage have been hoping to get a boost from [the] 87-year-old who has become the Internet face of opposition to Question 1. Close to 600,000 people have watched Philip Spooner on YouTube, recounting in a public hearing earlier this year the wrenching sights of blood and death he saw in action and his belief that the sacrifice was in support of a nation that extends equal rights to all. Spooner, a lifelong Republican, and his late wife raised four sons, one of whom is gay. It's unthinkable to him, he said in the tremulous voice of old age, that three of his sons will enjoy rights denied to the fourth. 'This is what we fought for in World War II,' he said, 'that idea that we can be different and still be equal.' Maine residents might be traditionalists by nature, but they also have a reputation as independent sorts who take a live-and-let-live attitude toward life. Spooner is, as gay-marriage supporters see him, the epitome of that fierce independence."

Here is Spooner's testimony:

No New Results For NYC Mayoralty and NY-23

Posted Nov 02, 2009 at 9:57 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

PollTrack has received no new polling for the New York City mayoral race or the special election in New York's 23rd congressional district. As a result, this mornings averages now stand as final. Please refer below for these races.

NJ Governor 2009: Close, But PollTrack Final Average Still Shows GOP Lead

Posted Nov 02, 2009 at 9:54 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

PollTrack's FINAL average of polling in New Jersey for the 2009 gubernatorial race:

Jon Corzine (D, Incumbent): 41.8%

Chris Christie (R): 42.3%

Chris Daggett (I)L 10.5%

Lead: Republican Chris Christie--+0.5%

Check Back Late-Afternoon, Early-Evening For PollTrack's Final Poll Average In This Rac

VA Governor 2009: Final Average Shows Strong Republican Lead

Posted Nov 02, 2009 at 8:57 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

PollTrack's FINAL average of polling in Virginia for the 2009 gubernatorial race:

 Bob McDonnell (R): 55.0%

Creigh Deeds (D): 40.6%

Lead: Republican Bob McDonnell--+14.4%

NY-23: Final Poll Average Shows Conservative Hoffman Ahead Of Democrat Owens

Posted Nov 02, 2009 at 1:42 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

PollTrack's FINAL average of polling in New York's 23rd Congressional District for 2009 special election:

 

Bill Owens (D): 35.0%

Doug Hoffman (I-Conservative): 43.0%

Dede Scozzafava (R): 8.0%

 

Lead: Conservative Doug Hoffman--+8.0%

 

NJ Governor 2009: Republican Christie's Lead Inceases Yet Again

Posted Nov 02, 2009 at 1:38 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

PollTrack's average of polling in New Jersey for the 2009 gubernatorial race:

Jon Corzine (D, Incumbent): 41.1%

Chris Christie (R): 42.8%

Chris Daggett (I)L 11.5%

Lead: Republican Chris Christie--+1.7%

Check Back Late-Afternoon, Early-Evening For PollTrack's Final Poll Average In This Race

VA Governor 2009: Republican McDonnell Far Ahead

Posted Nov 02, 2009 at 1:32 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

PollTrack's average of polling in Virginia for the 2009 gubernatorial race:

 Bob McDonnell (R): 54.0%

Creigh Deeds (D): 40.6%

Lead: Republican Bob McDonnell--+13.4%


Check Back Late-Afternoon, Early-Evening for PollTrack's Final Poll Average in Virginia. 

NY Mayor 2009: Final Poll Average Shows Bloomberg Ahead By Comfortable Margin

Posted Nov 02, 2009 at 1:28 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

PollTrack's average of polling in New York City for the 2009 Mayoral race:

Michael Bloomberg (I, Incumbent): 52.0%

Bill Thompson (D): 39.3%

Lead: Independent Michael Bloomberg--+12.7%

 

Maine Gay Marriage Vote: Very Close

Posted Nov 02, 2009 at 1:21 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

PollTrack's poll average for the so-called "gay marriage" initiative in Maine shows the race very close.

 

For keeping the law that legalized gay marriage: 47.6%

Against keeping the law that legalized gay marriage: 48.6%

 

Lead: AGAINST gay marriage--+1.0%


Check Back Late-Afternoon, Early Evening For Final PollTrack Average

NJ Governor 2009: Christie Up Slightly, Still Razor Close

Posted Nov 01, 2009 at 2:44 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

PollTrack's average of polling in New Jersey for the 2009 gubernatorial race:

Jon Corzine (D, Incumbent): 41.6%

Chris Christie (R): 42.2%

Chris Daggett (I)L 10.6%

Lead: Republican Chris Christie--+0.6%

NY-23: Could The Democrat Still Win?

Posted Nov 01, 2009 at 2:37 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

With Republican Dede Scozzafava pulling out of the special election in New York's 23rd congressional district, many observers have jumped to the conclusion that most of her voters will jump to Conservative Party candidate (and recipient of many GOP endorsements over the past few weeks) Doug Hoffman. PollTrack is joining a number of commentators over the past 24 hours in saying: not so fast. In examining the cross tabs in the most recent Siena Institute poll of the district, one thing is clear: Scozzafava supporters are often as moderate--or even more so--than the candidate herself.

Among her supporters, president Obama enjoys considerable support, and Hoffman's favorable rating remains low. So where will these voters go this coming Tuesday: some with vote for Scozzafava anyway. Some will move over to Hoffman out of party loyalty (the national and local GOP have now endorsed him). And some will undoubtedly vote for Democrat Bill Owens. The outcome may well be a squeaker between the Democrat and Conservative Party candidates. PollTrack is trolling around for any polling in the district over the next 48 hours. So stay tuned.