Presidential Race Maps Writing on the Wall

WI US Senate 2010: Is Rus Feingold In Trouble?

Posted Jan 28, 2010 at 2:38 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

A poll just out from Rasmussen Reports suggests that incumbent Wisconsin Democratic US Senator Russ Feingold may be in trouble in his 2010 reelection bid. It finds Republican Tommy Thompson overtaking Russ Feingold, 47% to 43%, in a possible U.S. Senate match-up.

CA Gov. 2010: Whitman Leads GOP Pack, But Brown Ahead In The General

Posted Jan 27, 2010 at 1:15 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

According to the latest Field Poll in California, Meg Whitman leads challenger Steve Poizner in the Republican gubernatorial primary, 45% to 17%. But Democrat Jerry Brown handily beats Whitman in a general election match up, 46% to 36%. Brown leads Poizner by an even greater margin, 48% to 31%.

Frustration, Anger Fueled MA US Senate Vote

Posted Jan 26, 2010 at 1:46 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

According to a post-election Washington Post survey of Massachusetts voters, "dissatisfaction with the direction of the country, antipathy toward federal-government activism and opposition to the Democrats' health-care proposals drove the upset election of Republican senatorial candidate Scott Brown in Massachusetts . . . Sixty-three percent of Massachusetts special-election voters say the country is seriously off track, and Brown captured two-thirds of these voters on Tuesday. In November 2008, Obama won decisively among the more than 80 percent of Massachusetts voters seeing the country as off-course . . . Nearly two-thirds of Brown's supporters say their vote was intended at least in part to express opposition to the Democratic agenda in Washington, but few say the senator-elect should simply work to stop it. Three-quarters of those who voted for Brown say they would like him to work with Democrats to get Republican ideas into legislation in general; nearly half say so specifically about health-care legislation."

MA US Senate: Unionists Backed Republican Brown Over Coakley

Posted Jan 25, 2010 at 1:52 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

In what may well be a testament to the unpopularity of health care reform--and perhaps declining support for the Obama administration--an AFL-CIO survey of union members found that Republican Scott Brown's victory in last Tuesday's special election for the US Senate in Massachusetts "was lifted by strong support from union households." The poll found that 49% of union households in the state supported Brown, while 46% supported Democrat Martha Coakley.

Is Ohio Trending Republican?

Posted Jan 22, 2010 at 1:36 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

Is Ohio--one of a handful of key bellwether states--trending Republican? A new Wenzel Strategies poll suggests that the answer may be yes. In the November's race for governor, Republican John Kasich leads incumbent Democratic Gov. Ted Strickland, 43% to 33%. In the U.S. Senate race, Republican Rob Portman bests Democrat Lee Fischer, 37% to 31%, and leads Democrat Jennifer Brunner (D), 40% to 35%.

CT Governor 2010: Democrats Ahead

Posted Jan 21, 2010 at 1:09 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

A Public Policy Polling survey in Connecticut suggestsd that it will be tough sailing for Republicans in the 2010 Governor's race in Connecticut: in hypothetical match ups, the poll finds three Democrats running--Susan Bysiewicz, Ned Lamont, and Dan Malloy--with solid leads over Republican contenders Michael Fedele and Tom Foley. Bysiewicz leads Foley 48% to 26% and Fedele 50% to 25%. Lamont and Malloy also hold double digit leads over their Republican rivals. A new Quinnipiac poll in Connecticut also finds  a Democratic lead in hypothetical matchups, but with the candidates FAR closer to each other: Lamont edges Foley, 38% to 36%, and beats Fedele, 41% to 32%. Malloy beats Foley, 37% to 33%, and leads Fedele, 37% to 31%.

PollTrack Calls MA US Senate Race: Republican Brown Wins!

Posted Jan 19, 2010 at 1:26 PM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

PollTrack's analysis now concludes that there are not enough votes in Democratic strongholds in Massachusetts (such as Boston) to make up for Brown's formidable, 100,000 vote lead. Brown wins the race.

MA US Senate: Brown 53% Coakley 46%

Posted Jan 19, 2010 at 1:21 PM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

With 71% of precincts reporting.

MA US Senate: Brown 53% Coakley 46%

Posted Jan 19, 2010 at 1:16 PM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

With 66% of precincts reporting.

MA US Senate: Coakley Almost 100,000 votes Behind Republican Brown

Posted Jan 19, 2010 at 1:09 PM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

With a nearly 100,000 vote deficit, Democrat Coakley's path to victory, with 60% of the votes in, has just become steeper.

MA US Senate: Brown 56% Coakley 43%

Posted Jan 19, 2010 at 1:08 PM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

With 60% of precincts reporting.

MA US Senate: Reports That Voting In Suburbs Heavy

Posted Jan 19, 2010 at 1:06 PM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

Both campaigns confirm that voting in the suburbs--a stronghold for Republican Scott Brown--was heavy and may have been relatively lighter in Boston and other urban Democratic strongholds.

MA US Senate: Brown 53% Coakley 47%

Posted Jan 19, 2010 at 1:02 PM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

With 52% of precincts reporting.

MA US Senate: Boston Improves For Coakley

Posted Jan 19, 2010 at 1:00 PM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

Coakley now leads Brown in Boston, 59% to 40%--a lead that could make the race closer as the evening wears on. Still, hard to say if it's enough to make up for the big numbers Brown is racking up in other parts of the state.

MA US Senate: Brown 52% Coakley 47%

Posted Jan 19, 2010 at 12:57 PM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

With 45% of precincts reporting.

MA US Senate: Brown 53% Coakley 46%

Posted Jan 19, 2010 at 12:55 PM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

With 40% reporting.

MA US Senate: Brown 52% Coakley 47%

Posted Jan 19, 2010 at 12:52 PM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

With 36% reporting.

MA US Senate: Brown 52% Coakley 48%

Posted Jan 19, 2010 at 12:50 PM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

With 29% reporting.

MA US Senate: Boston A Problem For Coakley?

Posted Jan 19, 2010 at 12:45 PM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

Boston is showing surprising strength for Republican Scott Brown. Coakley leads Brown in the normally Democratic stronghold by only +5%--52% to 47%. This appears to spell trouble for the Democrats, though with only 5% of precincts reporting in the City, it's still too early to tell.

MA US Senate: Brown 53% Coakley 46%

Posted Jan 19, 2010 at 12:43 PM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

With 21% reporting.

MA US Senate: Brown 52% Coakley 47%

Posted Jan 19, 2010 at 12:38 PM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

With 17% reporting.

MA US Senate: Brown 53% Coakley 46%

Posted Jan 19, 2010 at 12:34 PM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

With 11% reporting, Brown is up by one.

MA US Senate: Brown 52% Coakley 47%

Posted Jan 19, 2010 at 12:32 PM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

With 8% reporting. Boston has not reported substantial numbers (Democratic stronghold), but neither have a number of large ED's with significant numbers of Republican/Independent voter. So hard to say if Boston numbers will substantially alter the dynamic of the race.

MA US Senate: Brown 52% Coakley 47%

Posted Jan 19, 2010 at 12:22 PM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

With 4% of precincts reporting.

MA US Senate: Brown 55% Coakley 45%

Posted Jan 19, 2010 at 12:13 PM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

Latest Numbers: less than 1%.

MA US Senate: On The Ground Report

Posted Jan 19, 2010 at 12:00 PM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

It's minutes before the polls close in MA. On the ground reports from both campaigns suggest that voting may have been lighter in traditionally Democratic strongholds (relative to Republican districts). While PollTrack cannot confirm this, a reading of on-the-ground journalistic accounts of voting today seems to confirm parallel this view. Still, without exit polls (which were not arranged by news organizations), this may be a long night.

MA US Senate: The Question Of Turnout

Posted Jan 19, 2010 at 7:11 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

While reports of heavy turnout might help Democrat Martha Coakley--suggesting that the Democrats and their union supporters are churning out the vote--it could easily work the other way. It appears from polling that the most enthusiastic and fired up voters are Republicans and disaffected independents, who see their vote as a chance to scuttle a health care reform package that they do not support. Thus, it is almost impossible to predict the implications of heavy turnout. Does it suggest that the Democratic machine turned out its base, perhaps sufficiently to overtake Republican Scott Brown's polling advantage? Or are Brown's supports so fired up that they are willing to brave cold, wind, and snow to cast their vote to assure Brown's victory? That the inclement weather may keep elderly voters--who trend more conservative--from the polls, helps Coakley. That it also may dissuade younger voters, who have a poor record of participation to begin with, could very well help Brown. Stay tuned.

MA US Senate: Election Day Updates

Posted Jan 19, 2010 at 4:50 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

Here are some Election Day updates care of WBZ TV Boston on today's special election in Massachusetts:

LATE-POLLING: A Suffolk University survey taken Saturday and Sunday showed Brown with double-digit leads in three communities the poll identified as bellwethers: Gardner, Fitchburg and Peabody. Internal statewide polls for both sides showed a dead heat.

 
TURNOUT: In contrast to the light turnout for the party primaries last month, there are already signs of a heavy turnout . . .
Massachsuetts Secretary of State William Galvin told WBZ he expects about 40-percent of voters to turn out for the special election statewide. Galvin said about 800,000 came out for the primaries and he believes that should double to 1.6 million based on the intense interest in this campaign.

MA US Senate: FINAL PollTrack Average--Republican Brown +4%

Posted Jan 18, 2010 at 1:11 PM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

The FINAL PollTrack polling average for tomorrow's special election in Massachusetts to fill the U.S. Senate seat of the late-Ted Kennedy shows Republican Scott Brown with a decided advantage: he leads his Democratic opponent, Martha Coakley: 50% to 46%.


FINAL AVERAGE: Republican Scott Brown: +4%

MA US Senate: Politico/Insider Advantage Poll Shows Brown Up By +9%

Posted Jan 18, 2010 at 8:32 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

A just released Politico/Insider Advantage survey shows Republican Scott Brown up by +9.1% in his race to fill the U.S. seat in Massachusetts. Brown leads Democrat Martha Coakley, 52.3% to 43.1%. Significantly, Brown is over the all-important 50% mark in this poll.

MA US Senate: PollTrack Average Gives Republican Brown A Clear Lead

Posted Jan 18, 2010 at 6:28 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

PollTrack's polling average in the Massachusetts U.S. Senate special election to fill the seat of the late-Ted Kennedy gives Republican Scott Brown a clear lead over Democrat Martha Coakley: 49.8% to 45.8%, for an aggregate advantage of +4%. More ominous for Coakley: Brown's numbers hover at the 50% mark. Still, turnout could make the race much closer (or increase Brown's lead).

Live Blogging Tuesday Night: MA US Senate

Posted Jan 18, 2010 at 1:57 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

Tune into PollTrack for Tuesday night's live blog tracking election returns in the special election in Massachusetts to fill the U. S. Senate seat of the late-Ted Kennedy.

Intrade: The Bets Are On Republican Scott Brown

Posted Jan 17, 2010 at 3:51 PM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

Intrade, the futures trading website, offers yet another bit of evidence that the momentum is swinging towards the Republican in Massachusetts U.S. Senate Race: As of Sunday evening--after months of Democrat Marta Coakley leading by a wide margin--traders are now betting on Republican Scott brown to win: 70 to 38.9.

MA US Senate: Two New Polls Show Momentum With Republican Brown

Posted Jan 17, 2010 at 3:38 PM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

Two polls out tonight suggest that the momentum in the Massachusetts race to fill the seat of the late-Senator Edward Kennedy has swung towards Republican Scott Brown. Public Policy Polling survey shows Brown leading Martha Coakley, 51% to 46%, an advantage of +5%. A Merriman River Group poll finds that Brown ahead of Coakley by +9.6%--50.8% to 41.2%. PollTrack believes that the spate of late-breaking polls for Brown suggests that he has the clear momentum leading into Tuesday's election. With incumbent Democratic governor Deval Patrick holding onto an approval number in the low thirties, the usually true blue state may not be automatically hospitable to Democrats, and thus could be fertile turf for an upset. Stay tuned for more analysis throughout the next two days . . . and live blogging on Tuesday evening, Election night!

MA US Senate: The Momentum Appears To Remain With The Republican

Posted Jan 17, 2010 at 2:11 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

With Martha Coakley's internal poll showing her two points behind as of Friday night (47% to 45%)--taken before her on-air gaffe in which she called the Boston Rox Sox great and Scott Brown supporter, Curt Schilling, a New York Yankee fan--the race looks very close. PollTrack believes that as of this morning the momentum remains with Republican Brown, spurred, perhaps, by a Coakley blooper that suggests that she, the state's attorney general, is a bit of touch with her constituents, not to mention recent state history (think 2004 World Series).

Given public perceptions of Coakley as aloof--the increasing perception among the electorate that the President and the Democratic party is out of touch with their immediate needs, especially with regard to their emphasis on health care over job creation in a time of dire unemployment--Brown's populist rhetoric appears to be resonating, even in true blue Massachusetts.

The bigger problem for the Democrats: even if Coakley scrapes by, a close win in a state that has not elected a Republican U.S. Senator in more than 30 years, suggests real trouble in lesser blue states--like New York, Delaware, and California--and potential routes in swing states, like Ohio, Florida, Colorado, North Carolina, and . . . and we recently witnessed, Virginia.

MA US Senate: Another Red Flag For The Democrats

Posted Jan 16, 2010 at 10:19 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

Here's another fact that should have Democrats very nervous about the upcoming special election for U.S. Senate in Massachusetts: even if the specter of possible defeat drives complacent Democrats to the polling booth next Tuesday, this may not be enough to offset the enthusiasm of Republican voters AND, as some polling data suggests, that independents are breaking for Republican Scott Brown by a three-to-one margin. One even more important observation: independents outnumber Democrats in the state by a wide margin: 51% of registered voters are unaffiliated, 37% are registered as Democrats, and 11% as Republicans.

MA US Senate: Third Poll Gives Republican Brown The Edge

Posted Jan 16, 2010 at 9:53 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

A third poll now gives Republican Scott Brown the edge against his Democratic Challenger Martha Coakley in the race to succeed the late-U.S. Senator Ted Kennedy in Massachusetts: the American Research Group poll finds Brown ahead of Coakley, 48% to 45%, for a lead of +3%.

MA US Senate: PollTrack Average Has Republican Brown Up By +2%

Posted Jan 16, 2010 at 1:41 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

PollTrack's first polling average for the special US Senate race in Massachusetts, has Republican Scott Brown leading Democrat Martha Coakley by +2%--48% to 46%. Stay tuned throughout the weekend for updated averages and analysis of new polling in the state.

MA US Senate: Coakley In Trouble

Posted Jan 15, 2010 at 11:15 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

PollTrack's reading of the latest polls in the MA US Senate race suggests that Democrat Martha Coakley, once thought to be unbeatable in this bluest of blue states, is in serious trouble. One source reports that Coakley's internal poll for Thursday night showed her trailing Republican Scott Brown by three points, 47% to 44%. A new Suffolk University/7News poll in Massachusetts shows Brown leading Coakley, 50% to 46% with only 1 percent of voters remaining undecided. A Coakley loss would spell serious trouble, as well, for Democrats in this November's mid-term election. With MA Governor Deval Patrick's approval rating in the mid-20% range--and the president's standing in the state suffering as well--the Democratic edge in Massachusetts appears to have evaporated this year. (MA is also a state with an exceptionally large block of independent voters, now going by a significant margin to Brown.)

 

MA US Senate: Two Venerable Political Analysts Rate Race A Toss Up

Posted Jan 15, 2010 at 12:53 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

Two venerable political analysts--Charlie Cook and Stuart Rothenberg-now rate the special election in Massachusetts to fill the US Senate seat of the late-Edward Kennedy as a toss up. Calling the race "one of the toughest we've had in a long time, " Cook observes: "The modern electoral history of federal statewide races in Massachusetts argues strongly that while state Attorney General Martha Coakley, the Democratic nominee, could have a close race, at the end of the day it's unlikely that she ends up losing. After all, no Republican Senate candidate has won in the Bay State since 1972. But the non-quantitative arguments are quite strong. Republican Scott Brown has been the superior candidate with, by a long shot, the better campaign... To the extent Coakley may still have a tiny advantage, it appears not to meet the normal standard we have for a 'lean' rating: a competitive race but one in which one party has a clear advantage. We see no clear advantage."

PollTrack suggests another reason to rate the race a toss up: the extreme unpopularity of incumbent Democratic governor Deval Patrick, whose reelection numbers hover around 30% (his approval rating is even lower).

Nevada US Senate 2010: Harry Reid Sinking

Posted Jan 14, 2010 at 2:27 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

The reelection of US Senate majority leader Harry Reid is far from assured, according to new Las Vegas Review-Journal poll. A whopping 52% of Nevadans are unhappy with Reid, the highest  "unfavorable" rating he's received to date. Just 33% have a favorable view. In hypothetical match ups against three Republicans, Reid loses to each by as much as ten points: Sue Lowden (50% to 40%);  (Danny Tarkanian, 49% to 41%); and even Sharron Angle (45% to 40%).

MA US Senate: A Dead Heat According to Rasmussen

Posted Jan 13, 2010 at 1:40 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

Yesterday, PollTrack reported that an internal Democratic poll indicated a big lead for Martha Caokley over her Republican opponent Scott Brown in the upcoming special election for US Senate in Massachusetts. Today, the pendulum swings the other way with a report a new Rasmussen survey reporting that the race is a dead heat, with Coakley barely leading leading Brown, 49% to 47%. Last week, Coakley led by +9% in the Rasmussen survey.

MA US Senate: Internal Poll Shows Coakley With Big Lead

Posted Jan 12, 2010 at 1:30 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

According to an internal Democratic poll obtained by Politico, "Martha Coakley enjoys a solid, double-digit lead in the Massachusetts Senate special election.  The survey, conducted by longtime Democratic pollster Mark Mellman, has Democrat Coakley, the state attorney general, leading state Republican Sen. Scott Brown 50% to 36%.  Mellman’s survey has a similar margin to a Boston Globe poll, released Sunday, which had Coakley up by 15%. But this new poll has the attorney general enjoying a wider lead than in some other internal Democratic data." Stay tuned. 

MA US Senate: Martha Coakley Ahead?

Posted Jan 11, 2010 at 1:43 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

Some polls showing the upcoming  Massachusetts U.S. Senate race close, while a new Boston Globe poll reports Democrat Martha Coakley (D), "buoyed by her durable statewide popularity, enjoys a solid, +15% lead" among likely voters over rival, Republican Scott Brown, 50% to 35%." When undecideds leaning toward a candidate are included, Coakley's lead grows to +17 points--53% to 36%. Yet, a new Public Policy Polling survey finds the race a dead heat: with Brown actually leading Coakley by +1%--48% to 47%, "buoyed by a huge advantage with independents and relative disinterest from Democratic voters in the state." Stay tuned for more polling over the next few days. PollTrack's money is still on Coakley, though the outcome of the race is far from clear.

VA US Senate 2012: Is Republican George Allen Thinking About A Comeback?

Posted Jan 08, 2010 at 2:20 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

The Washington Post reports that former Republican US Senator George Allen "is thinking pretty seriously about public office, including a possible rematch against Democrat Jim Webb, who defeated Allen in 2006 by fewer than 10,000 votes." A just released poll (though it was taken in August) by Public Policy Polling in Virginia finds Allen leading Webb by an insignificant 44% to 43%. PPP writes: "The 'Macaca' incident certainly played a part in Allen's 2006 loss, but its being a terrible year for Republicans nationally may have played a bigger role. He would have survived in most other election cycles, and his present numbers are an indication that he's far from unelectable in the future."

CT US Senate 2010: With Dodd Out, Democratic AG Popular

Posted Jan 07, 2010 at 1:45 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

With Chris Dodd bowing out for reelection, a new Public Policy Polling survey in Connecticut reports that Democratic Attorney General Richard Blumenthal leads all three Republicans in the U.S. Senate race by at least 30 points. Blumenthal bests Republicans Rob Simmons, 59% to 28%; Linda McMahon, 60% to 28%; and Peter Schiff, 63% to 23%. PPP writes: "Blumenthal is unusually popular, especially in hyper partisan times when voters like few politicians. 59% have a favorable opinion of him to just 19% who see him negatively. It's no surprise that he's liked by 71% of Democrats and 60% of independents, but even Republicans view him favorably by a 37/35 margin. It doesn't take a lot of hands to count the number of Democratic politicians with positive numbers among GOP voters these days... It would take an epic collapse for him not to be Connecticut's next Senator."

MA US Senate: Martha Coakley In The Lead BY +9%

Posted Jan 06, 2010 at 1:30 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

In the January 19th special election to fill the seat of late Senator Edward Kennedy in Massachusetts, "State Attorney General Martha Coakley holds a nine-point lead over her Republican rival, state Senator Scott Brown, in Massachusetts’ special U.S. Senate election to fill the seat of the late Edward M. Kennedy. A new Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of likely voters in the state finds Coakley ahead of Brown 50% to 41%. One percent (1%) prefer some other candidate, and seven percent (7%) are undecided."

Will GOP Retirements Boost Democrats' Chances in 2010?

Posted Jan 05, 2010 at 1:38 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

A spate of GOP retirements in the US House of Representatves may well stem any gains made by the GOP this November. While conventional wisdom foresees formidable GOP gains in this House this November, the spate of recent Republican retirements--now at a whopping 14--representatives, "could curtail the expected GOP gains in the House in November," according to an analysis by Chris Cillizza in the Washington Post: "While much of the focus for the last month (or so) has been on Democrats' retirement problems -- set off by a quartet of announcements in swing and Republican-leaning districts over the last month -- a broad look at the open seat playing field suggests more parity in terms of the two parties' opportunities and vulnerabilities than conventional wisdom suggests."

Is Ben Nelson Vulnerable In Nebraska?

Posted Jan 04, 2010 at 2:07 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

Though his term as Nebraska's US Senator does not end until 2012, there is speculation that Democrat Ben Nelson may be in trouble in his home state. As Nebraska's Journal Star reports: "As a fresh poll measured the political cost of Sen. Ben Nelson's health reform vote, he prepared Tuesday to take his case directly to Nebraskans during Wednesday night's Holiday Bowl game. Nelson will air a new TV ad in which he attempts to debunk opposition claims that the Senate legislation represents a government takeover, and he makes the case for health care reform . . . The political damage Nelson may have incurred in providing the critical 60th vote that cleared the way for Senate passage of the health care reform bill showed up Tuesday in a poll released by Rasmussen Reports. The telephone survey of 500 Nebraskans, conducted Monday, suggested Republican Gov. Dave Heineman would defeat Nelson in a potential 2012 Senate race by a 61-30 margin. The poll showed Nelson with a 55 percent unfavorable rating and 64 percent disapproval for Democratic health care reform legislation."