Presidential Race Maps Writing on the Wall

North Dakota US Senate 2010: Safe Republican

Posted Mar 31, 2010 at 1:29 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

A new Rasmussen Reports survey reports that the popular Republican Governor John Hoeven of North Dakota --now running for for the open seat of retiring Democratic Sen. Byron Dorgan--holds a huge lead over Democratic candidate Tracy Potter, 68% to 25%.

PollTrack Early Read: Safe Republican

NY US Senate 2010: Is Gillibrand Vulnerable?

Posted Mar 30, 2010 at 12:54 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

A new Marist Poll in New York suggests that incumbent Democratic US Senator Kirsten Gillibrand may be vulnerable in her reelection bid this November: the poll finds former Republican Gov. George Pataki leading Gillibrand by a slim margin: 47% to 45%. Marist observes: "Former Governor Pataki is the big unknown for Gillibrand. With her approval rating at 27%, Gillibrand will almost certainly have her work cut out for her if Pataki enters the race."

Paterson Even More Unpopular In New York

Posted Mar 29, 2010 at 12:58 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

A new Marist Poll reports that the popularity incumbent New York Gov. David Paterson's has dropped to an even lower level since of series of scandals were revealed this winter: he now has just 17% favorable rating.Perhaps very good news for the Democratic party, Paterson announced recently that he would not seek reelection this November.

California Governor Most Unpopular In Polling History

Posted Mar 26, 2010 at 2:40 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

A new Field Poll reports that California Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger has the lowest approval rating in modern history, "including Gray Davis, who was ousted by Schwarzenegger in a popular uprising." 71% of California voters surveyed disapprove of Republican Schwarzenegger's handling of the job; 23 percent approve. s Field notes: "The low ratings are shared across all demographics including party affiliation, region of the state, age and race or ethnicity."

US Senate 2010: Examining The Toss Up Races--Missouri

Posted Mar 25, 2010 at 1:50 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

This week, Polltrack looks at races it rates as a Toss Up for 2010 US Senate.

Here is the poll average for Missouri:

Blunt (R) 47.0% to Carnahan (D) 41.0%.

Slight edge and momentum to the Republican, but Missouri remains a bellwether state of sorts and could go either way in this race, with many voters undecided.

US Senate 2010: Examining The Toss Up Races--Pennsylvania

Posted Mar 24, 2010 at 1:06 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

This week, Polltrack looks at races it rates as a Toss Up for 2010 US Senate.

Here is the poll average for PENNSYLVANIA:

Toomey (R) 44.0% to Specter (D) 41.0%.

Slight edge to the Republican, but the race is a true toss up. The tea leaves are, at this point, very difficult to read. It appears that Specter's number have been improving in recent months.

US Senate 2010: Examining The Toss Up Races--Ohio

Posted Mar 23, 2010 at 12:59 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

This week, Polltrack looks at races it rates as a Toss Up for 2010 US Senate.

Here is the poll average for OHIO:

Portman (R) 44.0 % to Fischer (D) 39.0%.

In this hypothetical match up (including only the respective leaders in their party's upcoming primaries), PollTrack believes that neither party leads in this key bellwether state. Many voters remain undecided.

US Senate 2010: Examining The Toss Up Races--Colorado

Posted Mar 22, 2010 at 1:37 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

This week, Polltrack looks at races it rates as a Toss Up for 2010 US Senate.

Here is the poll average for COLORADO:

Norton (R) 45.5% to Bennett (D) 41.0%.

Slight edge to the Republican, but the race remains very close, with many voters undecided.

CA Governor 2010: Field Poll Reports Meg Whitman Out Front

Posted Mar 19, 2010 at 1:16 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

Meg Whitman appears to be doing very well in her bid to become California's next governor: a new Field Poll shows the GOP front runner with a enormous lead over Steve Poizner in the Republican primary race, 63% to 14%. After weeks of being behind in a hypothetical general election match up, Whitman now leads Democrat Jerry Brown, 46% to 43%.

CO US Senate 2010: Tied Up

Posted Mar 18, 2010 at 12:49 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

A Public Policy Polling survey in Colorado reports that the 2010 race for U.S. Senate has now drawn down in a tied. In a hypothetical match up, incumbent Democrat, Michael Bennet is tied with his Republican challenger Jane Norton at 43%. The outcome of the Democratic primary in the state could make a difference, however: In PPP survey, Democrat Andrew Romanoff actually leads Norton, 44% to 39%.

PollTrack's Read: Too-Close-To-Call

 

FL Governor 2010: Republican With Solid Lead

Posted Mar 17, 2010 at 1:45 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

A new Public Policy Polling survey in Florida shows Republican Bill McCollum with a considerable +13%-lead over Democrat Alex Sink, 44% to 31%

WI US Senate 2010: Is Republican Upset Possible?

Posted Mar 16, 2010 at 1:08 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

Is a Republican upset possible in the 2010 U.S. Senate race in Wisconsin? A new Wisconsin Policy Research Institute poll now reports that former GOP Governor Tommy Thompson is leading Sen. Russ Feingold (D) in a hypothetical match up, 51% to 39%. One caveat: WPRI has tied to the Republican Party. Stay tuned for more polling.

PA US Senate 2010: Democrat Specter Now Leads

Posted Mar 15, 2010 at 2:23 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

A new DailyKos/Research 2000 poll in Pennsylvania reports that incumbent U.S. Senator Arlen Specter has a modest lead Republican Pat Toomey, 47% to 41%. Other surveys have also reported movement in Specter's direction in recent weeks.

Nevada 2010 US Senate: Without Tea Party Candidate, Democrat Suffers

Posted Mar 12, 2010 at 1:14 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

Without the presence of a Tea Party candidate on the ballot in Nevada's 2010 US Senate race, incumbent Democrat and Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid appears to be failing: In hypothetical match-ups, a new Rasmussen survey reports that Republican Sue Lowden defeats Reid by a large margin, 51% to 38%. Similarly, Republican Danny Tarkanian trounces the Democrat, 50% to 37%.

PollTrack Rating: Leans Republican

TX Governor 2010: Republican Perry Leading By Slim Margin

Posted Mar 11, 2010 at 12:45 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

With the primaries over in Texas, Rasmussen reports that the incumbent Republican Governor Rick Perry leads his Democratic challenger, Bill White by a small margin: 49% to 43%. These numbers suggest that the race has tightened considerably in recent months.  

PollTrack Rating: Toss-Up

 

OH US Senate 2010: No Clear Leader, But Republican Slightly Ahead

Posted Mar 10, 2010 at 12:13 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

A new survey reports that there is no clear leader in the 2010 Ohio US Senate race: "None of the top contenders  . . . are gaining ground at this point, with Republican Rob Portman still holding a modest lead. The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of likely voters in the state finds Portman leading Lieutenant Governor Lee Fisher 44% to 39% . . . Portman holds a 43% to 37% lead over Secretary of State Jennifer Brunner, and this, too, is little changed from the previous survey. Six percent (6%) opt for another candidate, with 15% more undecided."

PollTrack Projection: Too Close To Call

Siena Poll: NY Voters Want Peterson To Remain

Posted Mar 09, 2010 at 1:07 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

Contradicting a Quinnipiac poll released late last week, a new Siena Research Institute survey reports that "A clear majority of voters, 55%, would prefer Governor David Paterson serve the remainder of his term, compared to 37% who would like him to resign and allow Lt. Governor Richard Ravitch to serve as governor for the remainder of the year. And an even larger majority, 71 percent, would rather see the Governor finish his term, while 21 percent would like the State Legislature to move to impeach the Governor if he does not resign."

NY Gov. 2010: Voters Cooling on Paterson

Posted Mar 08, 2010 at 1:45 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

With even more harmful stories circulating last week about embattled NY Governor David Paterson, a new Quinnipiac poll reports that voters are now split 46% to 42% over whether Paterson should finish his term rather than resign. Just a few days earlier, Quinnipiac found, by a 61% to 31% margin, voters wanted Paterson serving to serve out his term. 

NJ US Senate 2012: Democrat Menendez Loosing Ground

Posted Mar 05, 2010 at 1:29 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

In an indication that the incumbent Democratic senior US Senator is New Jersey may be loosing ground politically in his state, a new Fairleigh Dickinson PublicMind Poll reports that Republican Tom Kean Jr. is in a statistical dead heat with Democrat Bob Menendez in a hypothetical rematch of their 2006 U.S. Senate race, 39% to 38%, with 17% undecided. Although the race is more than two years away, the poll suggests the dramatic erosion of Democratic support in the state following the defeat of incumbent Democratic Governor Jon Corzine last November.

Most New Yorkers Want Gov. Paterson To Stay

Posted Mar 04, 2010 at 1:38 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

Despite being battered by a series of punishing news cycles, a new Quinnipiac poll in New York reports that 61% of voters want incumbent Democratic Governor David Paterson to finish out his term, this despite a dismal 24% approval rating and an increasing number of political figures calling for him to resign.

Nevada US Senate 2010: Harry Reid Aided By TeaParty Candidate

Posted Mar 03, 2010 at 1:46 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

A Mason-Dixon poll in Nevada indicates that incumbent Democratic U.S. Senator Harry Reid actually leads his re-election race with 36% of the vote when matched against a generic Republican who would get 32% and a Tea Party candidate who would get 18%. The ability of the Tea Party candidate to siphon off votes from the Republican candidate is enough to shift the outcome: in head-to-head match ups with named Republicans, Reid continues to trail by  significant margins. Sue Lowden beats Reid, 52% to 39%; Danny Tarkanian would prevail over Reid, 51% to 40%.

MD Governor 2010: Incumbent Democrat In Good Position

Posted Mar 02, 2010 at 1:57 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

According to a new Rasmussen Reports survey in Maryland, incumbent Democratic Governor Martin O'Malley leads former GOP Governor Bob Ehrlich (R) in a potential rematch of their 2006 race, 49% to 43%.

DE US Senate: Republican Castle Way Ahead

Posted Mar 01, 2010 at 1:11 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

In a potential pick up for Republicans, a new DailyKos/Research 2000 poll in Delaware finds GOP Rep. Mike Castle (R) considerably ahead of Democrat Chris Coons (D) in the U.S. Senate race, 53% to 35%.