Presidential Race Maps Writing on the Wall

PollTrack On Vacation: Back Next Tuesday, 1 June

Posted May 27, 2010 at 11:31 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

PollTrack is off for the Memorial Day weekend. We'll be back up with presidential and national voting analysis as well as state-by-state cover of the 2010 mid-term elections next Tuesday, 1 June.

NY Gov. 2010: Democrat Cuomo WAY Ahead Of All Republican Challengers

Posted May 27, 2010 at 1:26 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

A new Siena Poll in New York reports that Democratic Attorney General Andrew Cuomo-- who just officially announced his candidacy for governor--holds a commanding lead over all three of his hypothetical Republican opponents: he beats likely GOP nominee Rick Lazio, 66% to 24%, Carl Paladino, 65% to 22%, and Steve Levy, 65% to 22%.

PollTrack Rates The Race Likely Democrat

NY US Senate 2010: Democrat Incumbent Now Solidly Ahead

Posted May 27, 2010 at 1:25 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

A new Siena poll reports that incumbent Democratic U.S. Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand has passed an important threshold in her reelection race: she is now over the important 50% make in hypothetical match ups with her potential Republican challengers.
She leads Republicans Bruce Blakeman, 51% to 24%, Joe DioGuadia, 51% to 25%, and David Malpass, 53% to 22%.

PollTrack Now Rates The Race Likely Democrat

CA US Senate: Fiorina Retakes Lead in Republican Primary

Posted May 26, 2010 at 12:55 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

Two new polls suggest that Carly Fiorina has retaken the lead--by a fairly wide margin--in California's Republican primary for U.S. Senate: a new Public Policy Polling survey shows Fiorina with a +20% lead over Tom Campbell, 41% to 21%, with Chuck DeVore (R) running third at 16%. These results are quite similar to a SurveyUSA poll released yesterday.

CA US Senate: Tom Cambell Leads Republican Primary Pack

Posted May 25, 2010 at 1:26 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

A new DailyKos/Research 2000 poll in California reports that Tom Campbell now leads the Republican U.S. Senate race with 37%, followed by Carly Fiorina at 22% and Chuck DeVore at 14%.

FL U.S. Senate 2010: Another Poll Shows Crist Ahead In Independent Bid

Posted May 24, 2010 at 12:39 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

The Miami Herald reports that Charlie Crist holds a narrow lead in the Florida U.S. Senate race, "despite nearly half of the voters saying he made a "purely political'' decision to bolt the GOP and run as an independent candidate in the Nov. 2 general election." The new St. Petersburg Times/Miami Herald/Bay News 9 poll finds that of the registered voters surveyed, 30 percent were for Crist, 27 percent for Republican Marco Rubio and 15 percent for Democratic front-runner Kendrick Meek."

Illinois US Senate: Republicans Takes Lead

Posted May 21, 2010 at 1:14 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

With a banking scandal brewing around the Democratic nominee, the race for U.S. Senate in Illinois has grown more favorable to the Republican candidate. A new DailyKos/Research 2000 poll in Illinois reports that GOP Rep. Mark Kirk now leads Alexi Giannoulias the race, 41% to 38%.

PollTrack rates the race Too-Close-To Call.

NY US Senate 2010: Democrat Incumbent Holds Solid Lead

Posted May 21, 2010 at 1:13 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

The Marist Poll reports that incumbent Democratic Kirsten Gillibrand leads her hypothetical Republican challengers by a considerable margin in November's upcoming U. S. Senate race in New York. Gillibrand bests Republican Bruce Blakeman, 52% to 28%; Joseph DioGuardi, 50% to 30%; and David Malpass, 52% to 28%.

PollTrack rates the race leaning Democrat

CT Governor 2010: Democrats Leading

Posted May 20, 2010 at 12:12 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

Will Democrats flip the state house in Connecticut this year? The answer may be yes. A Rasmussen poll in the nutmeg state finds Democrat Ned Lamont ahead of Republican Thomas Foley in the race for governor, 42% to 35%. Another Democrat vying for the gubernatorial nomination, Dan Malloy, also leads Foley, 38% to 35%.

AZ US Senate 2010: John McCain Ahead In Primary And General

Posted May 20, 2010 at 12:11 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

A DailyKos/Research 2000 poll in Arizona suggest that while the race has grown closer, Republican incumbent U.S. Sen. John McCain leads primary challenger Republican J.D. Hayworth by a significant twelve point margin, 48% to 36%. In a general election match up, McCain bests Democrat Rodney Glassman by 13-points. 48% to 35%.


PollTrack rates the race likely Republican .

 

Indiana U.S. Senate: GOP Well Ahead

Posted May 18, 2010 at 11:46 PM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

A new Rasmussen survey in Indiana reports that former GOP Sen. Dan Coats is well ahead of Democratic Rep. Brad Ellsworth for the U.S. Senate, 51% to 36%.

PollTrack rates the race likely Republican.

Delaware U.S. Senate: Likely Republican

Posted May 18, 2010 at 11:45 PM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

A just released Rasmussen survey in Delaware finds Republican Rep. Michael Castle with a gigantic lead over Democrat Chris Coons in their U.S. Senate race, 55% to 32%.

PollTrack Rates The Race Likely Republican

MD Governor 2010: Incumbent Democrat In The Lead

Posted May 16, 2010 at 11:20 PM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

A Washington Post poll reports that incumbent Democratic Governor Martin O'Malley leads former Republican Gov. Bob Ehrlich by +8% in a rematch of their 2006 race in Maryland, 49% to 41%.

 

Polltrack rates the race leaning Democrat.

PA U.S. Senate: Photo Finish In Democratic Primary?

Posted May 16, 2010 at 11:20 PM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

The final Muhlenberg/Morning Call tracking survey in Pennsylvania suggest that tomorrow's race may come down to a photo finish: incumbent Sen. Arlen Specter and challenger Rep. Joe Sestak are tied in the Democratic U.S. Senate primary race at 44%.

The Week Ahead: Senate And Gubernatorial Race

Posted May 16, 2010 at 11:19 PM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

This week, PollTrack will devote it's coverage to upcoming and competitive U.S. Senate and gubernatorial races. We will resume regular coverage next Monday, 24 May.

PA U.S. Senate: Specter Falls Further Behind

Posted May 14, 2010 at 1:05 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

A just released Suffolk University poll in Pennsylvania reports that Democratic Rep. Joe Sestak now lead incumbent Sen. Arlen Specter in the Democratic Senate primary by +9%, 49% to 40%, with another 12% undecided. That a five-point jump from earlier in the week.

Iowa U.S. Senate: Could Grassley Be In Trouble?

Posted May 12, 2010 at 1:01 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

Could incumbent Republican Charles Grassley be in trouble in his reelection bid for U.S. Senate? A new KCCI poll in Iowa reports that the race appears to be tightening up, Grassley now leads Democrat Roxanne Conlin by just nine points, 49% to 40%.

PollTrack rates the race leaning Republican.

 

PA U.S. Senate: Is Specter In Danger in Reelection Race?

Posted May 11, 2010 at 1:06 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

A new poll suggest that incumbent Democratic U.S. Senator Arlen Specter is in Danger in his reelection bid in Pennsylvania. In the Democratic primary, the survey shows Specter behind rival Joe Sestak. In Monday's Muhlenberg/Morning Call tracking poll: Rep. Sestak leads Sen. Specter by +5%--47% to 42%. A new Rasmussen survey also shows Sestak with a +5% lead, 47% to 42%.

Ohio US Senate 2010: Too Close To Call

Posted May 10, 2010 at 1:42 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

With the respective nominees now decided in Ohio's U.S. Senate race, a new Rasmussen poll reports that Democrat Lee Fisher inches past Republican Rob Portman, 43% to 42%.

 

PollTrack rates the race too-close-to-call.

FL U.S. Senate 2010: Another Poll Shows Crist Ahead In Independent Bid

Posted May 07, 2010 at 1:34 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

For GOP US Senate hopeful, Florida Governor Charlie Crist may have made a smart move by deciding to run as an independent: another poll, this one from Mason Dixon poll, finds Crist leading a three-way race for U.S. Senate with 38%, followed by Republican Marco Rubio at 32% and Democratic Rep. Kendrick Meek at 19%. Interestingly, the poll reports that "More than half of Crist's supporters are Democrats, who overwhelmingly approve of his defection from the GOP and recent veto of a controversial teacher tenure bill."

WA US Senate 2010: Too Close To Call?

Posted May 06, 2010 at 1:48 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

Is the U.S. Senate race in Washington headed for a squeaker this fall? A SurveyUSA poll in Washington reports that incumbent Democratic Sen. Patty Murray does no better than 46% against six possible Republican opponents. In one match up, Murray should be particularly alarmed: against Republican Dino Rossi (R)--who is considering a Senate run--Murray trails by -10%-- 52% to 42%.

Illinois US Senate: Are Republicans Headed For Victory?

Posted May 05, 2010 at 1:46 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

Are Republicans headed for victory in the U.S. Senate race in Illinois, possibly winning the seat once held by President Obama? A new Rasmussen survey in Illinois suggests that the answer may be yes. The poll finds that Democratic Alexi Giannoulias falling  behind his Republican challenger, Rep. Mark Kirk (R). Kirk now leads Giannoulias by eight points, 46% to 38%.

FL U.S. Senate 2010: New Poll Shows Crist Ahead In Independent Bid

Posted May 04, 2010 at 1:14 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

A newly released McLaughlin & Associates poll in Florida suggest that incumbent Republican Governor Charlie Crist may have made a good move by dropping out of the GOP primary for U.S. Senate and running as an independent. According to the survey, he now leads the race with 33%, followed by Republican Marco Rubio at 29% and Democratic Rep. Kendrick Meek at 15%. Who does Crist hurt more? The survey shows Crist taking more votes from Meek than Rubio, actually besting Meeks with Democrats.Any trends here? With a large number of undecided voters and Crist and Rubio relatively close, PollTrack rates the race Too-Close-To-Call.

Ohio US Senate 2010: Poll Shows Fisher Way Ahead In Democratic Primary

Posted May 03, 2010 at 1:27 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

It looks like the Democrats are honing in on a candidate to challenge Republican Rob Portman in the U. S. Senate race in November. A new Suffolk University poll shows Lee Fisher trouncing Jennifer Brunner in this week's Democratic primary race, 55% to 27%. These numbers are consistent with a spate of new polls that show Fisher well head in the race to challenge Portman, who is unopposed for the Republican nomination, in the general election.