Presidential Race Maps Writing on the Wall

NY Gov. 2010: Safe Democrat

Posted Jul 30, 2010 at 12:54 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

A new Quinnipiac poll in New York reports that incumbent Democratic Attorney General Andrew Cuomo maintains a 69% approval rating. He beats either possible Republican gubernatorial challengers by wide margins: Cuomo is ahead of Republican by a whopping +30%, 56% to 26%, and bests Carl Paladino by the same margin, 55% to 25%.

 

PollTrack Rates The Race Safe Democrat

 

MD Governor 2010: Too-Close-To-Call

Posted Jul 30, 2010 at 12:54 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

In yet another sign of a potentially close race in Maryland, a newGonzales Research poll Incumbent Democratic Gov. Martin O'Malley with a tiny lead over former Republican Gov. Robert Ehrlich (R) in a rematch of their race for governor four years ago, 45% to 42%.

 

PollTrack Rates The Race Too-Close-To-Call

CA US Senate: Democratic Prospects May Be Improving

Posted Jul 29, 2010 at 1:15 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

A Public Policy Polling survey in California reports that incumbent Democratic U.S. Senator Barbara Boxer has improved her standing against Republican challenger Carly Fiorina. Boxer now leads by +7%, 49% to 40%, up from her +3% edge two months ago. PPP writers: "As independents have grown to hold a more unfavorable opinion of Fiorina their loyalties in the race have shifted toward Boxer. The incumbent has a 48% to 38% lead with them now, flipping the 10 point deficit she faced to Fiorina at 42% to 32% back in May."

 

PollTrack Continues To Rate The Race Too-Close-To-Call

Kentucky Us Senate: Too-Close-To-Call

Posted Jul 28, 2010 at 1:34 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

In a vital test of Tea Party strength, the U.S. Senate race in Kentucky now appears to be too-close-to-call. A just released Braun Research poll reports that Republican candidate and Tea Party favorite Rand Paul leads Democrat Jack Conway by a scant +3%, 41% to 38%.

PollTrack Rates The Race Too-Close-To-Call

WV Special Election US Senate: Manchin Way Ahead

Posted Jul 27, 2010 at 1:58 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

A new Rasmussen survey in West Virginia reports that incumbent Democratic governor Joe Manchin is way ahead of possible Republican challenger John Raese in the special election for U.S. Senate, 51% to 35%.

PollTrack Rates The Race Leans Democrat

Missouri U.S. Senate: Too Close To Call?

Posted Jul 26, 2010 at 12:53 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

A just released St. Louis Post-Dispatch/Mason-Dixon poll in in the Missouri U.S. Senate race reports that Republican Roy Blunt holds a +6% lead over Democrat Robin Carnahan, in the race for U.S. Senate, 48% to 42%.The Democrat predictably leads in the state's large urban centers, St. Louis and Kansas City areas; Blunt leads every other region of the state by a wide margin. While PollTrack continues to rate the race too-close-to-close, it appears to be trending slightly Republican (like the state itself in recent years).

WI US Senate 2010: Too-Close-To-Call

Posted Jul 23, 2010 at 1:31 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

A Magellan Strategies poll in Wisconsin reports that incumbent Democratic Sen. Russ Feingold is in a tough fight for his political future. Feingold holds a slim, +2% lead over challenger Republican Ron Johnson, 45% to 43%.

 

PollTrack Rates The Race Too-Close-To-Call

CT US Senate 2010: Democrat Blumenthal With Solid Lead

Posted Jul 23, 2010 at 1:30 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

A new Quinnipiac poll in Connecticut reports that Democrat Richard Blumenthal holds a substantial +17% lead over Republican challenger Linda McMahon in the U.S. Senate race, 54% to 37%.

Nevada US Senate: Another Poll Shows Reid In The Lead

Posted Jul 22, 2010 at 1:45 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

Can incumbent Democrat US Senator Harry Reid survive his low approval ratings and win reelection in Nevada? Another poll suggests that he is gaining on his Republican challenger, and Tea Party favorite, Sharon Angle. A new Public Policy Polling survey in Nevada reports that Reid edges challenger Sharron Angle by +2%, 48% to 46%. This is the second poll to report a Democratic lead.

Delaware U.S. Senate: Likely Republican

Posted Jul 21, 2010 at 1:31 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

A new Rasmussen survey in Delaware reports that Republican U.S. Representative at large Mike Castle leads Democrat Chris Coons in the U.S. Senate race by a +11% margin, 47% to 36%.

 

PollTrack Rates The Race Likely Republican

CA Governor 2010: Republican Has Slight Edge

Posted Jul 20, 2010 at 2:11 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

A new SurveyUSA poll in California reports that Republican candidate Meg Whitman holds a +7% lead over former Democratic Governor Jerry Brown, 46% to 39%.

 

PollTrack Now Rates The Race Leaning Republican

Nevada US Senate 2010: Harry Reid Now Ahead

Posted Jul 19, 2010 at 1:35 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

A new Las Vegas Review-Journal/Mason Dixon poll in Nevada reports that incumbent Democratic Sen. Harry Reid has moved into the lead, opening a lead over Republican challenger Sharron Angle, 44% to 37%. It appears that Reid's strategy of painting Angle, a Tea Party favorite as too extreme has paid off.

PollTrack Continues To Rate The Race Too-Close-To-call.

CA US Senate: Too Close To Call

Posted Jul 16, 2010 at 1:38 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

A new SurveyUSA poll in California reports that Republican candidate Carly Fiorina holds a statistically insignificant +2% lead over incumbent Democratic Sen. Barbara Boxer (D) in the U.S. Senate race, 47% to 45%. Conversely, a new Rasmussen survey has Democrat Boxer leading Fiorina by +7% among likely voters, 49% to 42%.

 

PollTrack Rates The Race Too-Close-To-Call

Illinois US Senate: Too-Close-To-Call

Posted Jul 15, 2010 at 1:21 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

The race for US Senate in Illinois remains too-close-to-call. A new Rasmussen survey in Illinois reports that Democrat Alexi Giannoulias holds a scant (and statistically insignificant) +1% lead over Republican Rep. Mark Kirk, 40% to 39%.

MD Governor 2010: Incumbent Democrat Behind

Posted Jul 14, 2010 at 1:46 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

In what amounts to another incumbent in trouble with voters, a new Magellan Strategies survey in Maryland reports that former Republican Gov. Robert Ehrlich holds a slim +3% lead over Democratic incumbent Gov. Martin O'Malley in their re-match for governor, 46% to 43%. Another poll by Public Policy Polling survey in Maryland finds Democrat O'Malley with a small lead over Ehrlich, 45% to 42%.

PollTrack Rates The Race Too-Close-To-Call

WV Special Election US Senate: Manchin In Lead

Posted Jul 13, 2010 at 12:42 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

A newly released Rasmussen survey reports that incumbent Democratic Gov. Joe Manchin hold a significant lead in the special election to be held later this year in West Virginia to fill the late Sen. Robert Byrd's seat. Manchin leads Republican Rep. Shelley Moore Capito, 53% to 39%, and crushes the Republican Secretary, State Betty Ireland, 65% to 26%.

CA US Senate: Too Close To Call

Posted Jul 12, 2010 at 1:18 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

According to a new Field Poll, "Democratic Senator Barbara Boxer's edge over Republican challenger Carly Fiorina has dwindled to 3 points as she seeks re-election in November, with more Californians now holding an unfavorable view of the three-term senator . . . Boxer, who once held a 30-point lead over Fiorina, the former CEO of Hewlett Packard and a political novice, is now ahead by a margin of only 47 percent to 44 percent, the Field Poll found."

One alarming finding for the incumbent Democratic Senator: "The Field Poll found that since January more Californians have become disgruntled with Boxer, with 52 percent of likely voters holding an unfavorable view of her, compared with just 41 percent who regard her favorably. Boxer's ratings have dropped to some of the lowest levels of her 18-year career in the Senate, with only 42 percent of registered voters approving of her job performance and 43 percent disapproving."


PollTrack Rates The Race Too-Close-To-Call

Ohio Governor 2010: New Poll Shows Republican Ahead

Posted Jul 08, 2010 at 1:32 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

In the race for Ohio Governor, the latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey reports that Republican John Kasich holds a +7% lead over incumbent Democrat Ted Strickland, 47% to 40%. 3% of likely voters prefer another candidate, and 10% are undecided.

 

PollTrack Rates The Race Too-Close-To-Call

CA US Senate: Incumbent Democrat Holds Small Lead

Posted Jul 07, 2010 at 12:37 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

According to a new Reuters/Ipsos poll in California, incumbent Democrat Sen. Barbara Boxer holds a +4% lead over her Republican challenger Carly Fiorina, 45% to 41%.

PollTrack Rates The Race Too-Close-To-Call.

CA Governor 2010: Democrat Has Slight Edge

Posted Jul 05, 2010 at 4:45 PM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

According to new Reuters/Ipsos poll in California, the Democrat has a slight edge in the race for Governor. The survey reports that  Democrat Jerry Brown holds a +6% lead over Republican Meg Whitman, 45% to 39%.


PollTrack Rates The Race Too-Close-To-Call.

WA US Senate 2010: Officially Too Close To Call

Posted Jul 02, 2010 at 1:44 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

A just released Rasmussen survey in Washington state reports that incumbent Democratic U.S. Senator Patty Murray is tied with her Republican challenger Dino Rossi at 47% each.


PollTrack Rates The Race Too-Close-To-Call.

Iowa U.S. Senate: Republican Incumbent Safely Ahead

Posted Jul 02, 2010 at 1:43 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

A Public Policy Polling survey reports that incumbent Republican U.S. Senator Charles Grassley can breath a little easier in his reelection bid: the poll has him leading his hypothetical Democratic opponents by +26 to +30%.

PollTrack now rates the race SAFE Republican

Ohio US Senate 2010: Deadlocked

Posted Jul 01, 2010 at 1:03 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

A new Quinnipiac poll in Ohio reports that the race for U.S. Senate is virtually deadlocked. Democrat Lee Fisher leads Republican Rob Portman by a slim +2% lead, 42% to 40%, with 17% undecided.

PollTrack Rates The Race Too Close To Call.