Presidential Race Maps Writing on the Wall

Kentucky US Senate 2010: Is The Race Too-Close-To-Call?

Posted Sep 30, 2010 at 2:36 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

Democratic prospects to retaining the U.S. Senate may have improved, based on the findings of a poll in a key state: Kentucky. The latest Courier-Journal/WHAS11 Bluegrass Poll reports that an earlier +15% lead for Republican (and Tea Party favorite) Rand Paul has nearly evaporated. He now leads Democrat Jack Conway by +2%, 49% to 47% with 4% still undecided. Stay tuned to see if other polls replicate this result.

PollTrack Continues To Rate The Race Leans Republican

U. S. SENATE RACE CHART: DEM-48 TCTC-7 REP-45

Posted Sep 29, 2010 at 3:26 PM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

U. S. SENATE RACE CHART 2010

 

Predicted Balance of Power: DEM-48 TCTC-7 REP-45

* Alaska: Too-Close-To-Call  (from leans Republican) IND-+4.5%

California: Leaning Democrat DEM +6.4%
 
Colorado: Too-Close-To-Call REP +4.5%

*ConnecticutToo-Close-To-Call DEM +4.0% (from Likely DEM)
 
Florida : Likely Republican REP +11.5%
 
Illinois: Too-Close-To-Call REP +3.0%
 
Kentucky: Leaning Republican REP +7.0%
 
Missouri: Leaning Republican REP +8.0%
 
Nevada: Too-Close-To-Call DEM +1.3%
 
New Hampshire: Leaning Republican REP +7.0%
 
Pennsylvania: Leaning Republican REP +6.0%
 
Washington: Too-Close-To-Call DEM +5.3%
 
West Virginia: Too-Close-To-Call DEM +2.0%
 
Wisconsin : Leaning Republican REP +8.0%
 
 
Likely/Safe DEM: DE, HI, MD, NY-1, NY-2, OR, VT
 
Likely/Safe GOP: AR, IN, LA, AL, AZ, GA, IA, ID, KS, ND, OH, OK, SC, SD, UT

GOVERNOR RACE CHART: REP-28 TCTC-7 DEM-15

Posted Sep 29, 2010 at 9:14 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

GOVERNOR RACE CHART 2010

Predicted Balance of Power: REP-28 TCTC-7 DEM-15

California: Too-Close-To-Call

Connecticut: Leaning Democrat

Florida: Too-Close-To-Call

Georgia: Leaning Republican

Illinois: Leaning Republican

Maine: Leaning Republican

Maryland: Leaning Democrat

Massachusetts: Too-Close-To-Call

Minnesota: Too-Close-To-Call

*New Mexico: Leaning Republican (from Too-Close-To-Call)

Ohio: Too-Close-To-Call  (from Leaning GOP)

Oregon: Too-Close-To-Call

New Hampshire: Leans Democrat

Pennsylvania: Leaning Republican

Rhode Island: Leans Democrat

Texas: Leaning Republican

Vermont: Too-Close-To-Call

Wisconsin: Leaning Republican
 
 
Likely/Safe Democrat: AR, CO, HI, NY
Likely/Safe Republican: AK, AZ, IA, MI, NV, OK, SC

Ohio Governor 2010: Dramatic Movement

Posted Sep 28, 2010 at 3:36 PM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

The political fortunes of one Democratic governor--Ted Strickland of Ohio--appears to reversing for the better. Three new polls show him within striking distance of his GOP opponent, John Kasich: Reuters/Ipsos poll shows the race virtually tied, with Kasich leading Strick among likely voters, 47% to 46% (the Republican held a +9% advantage in August). A new Fox News poll also shows a tight race, with leading by a scant +2%--45% to 43%. And a just released New York Times/CBS News poll shows Kasich with a 43% to 42% lead. Stay tuned.

GOVERNOR RACE CHART: REP-27 TCTC-8 DEM-15

Posted Sep 28, 2010 at 3:26 PM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

GOVERNOR RACE CHART 2010

Predicted Balance of Power: REP-27 TCTC-9 DEM-14

California: Too-Close-To-Call

Connecticut: Leaning Democrat

Florida: Too-Close-To-Call

Georgia: Leaning Republican

Illinois: Leaning Republican

Maine: Leaning Republican

*Maryland: Leaning Democrat (from TCTC)

Massachusetts: Too-Close-To-Call

Minnesotta: Too-Close-To-Call

New Mexico: Too-Close-To-Call

*Ohio: Too-Close-To-Call  (from Leaning GOP)

Oregon: Too-Close-To-Call

New Hampshire: Leans Democrat

Pennsylvania: Leaning Republican

Rhode Island: Leans Democrat

Texas: Leaning Republican

Vermont: Too-Close-To-Call

Wisconsin: Leaning Republican
 
 
Likely/Safe Democrat: AR, CO, HI, NY
Likely/Safe Republican: AK, AZ, IA, MI, NV, OK, SC

U. S. SENATE RACE CHART: DEM-48 TCTC-6 REP-46

Posted Sep 28, 2010 at 3:26 PM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

U. S. SENATE RACE CHART 2010

 

Predicted Balance of Power: DEM-48 TCTC-6 REP-46 

California: Leaning Democrat DEM +6.4%
 
Colorado: Too-Close-To-Call REP +4.5%

*ConnecticutToo-Close-To-Call DEM +4.0% (from Likely DEM)
 
Florida : Likely Republican REP +11.5%
 
Illinois: Too-Close-To-Call REP +3.0%
 
Kentucky: Leaning Republican REP +7.0%
 
Missouri: Leaning Republican REP +8.0%
 
Nevada: Too-Close-To-Call DEM +1.3%
 
New Hampshire: Leaning Republican REP +7.0%
 
Pennsylvania: Leaning Republican REP +6.0%
 
Washington: Too-Close-To-Call DEM +5.3%
 
West Virginia: Too-Close-To-Call DEM +2.0%
 
Wisconsin : Leaning Republican REP +8.0%
 
 
Likely/Safe DEM: DE, HI, MD, NY-1, NY-2, OR, VT
 
Likely/Safe GOP: AR, IN, LA, AL, AK, AZ, GA, IA, ID, KS, ND, OH, OK, SC, SD, UT

Ohio Governor 2010: Leans Republican

Posted Sep 28, 2010 at 2:11 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

According to a new poll, the Democrat has fallen even further behind in the U.S. Senate race in Ohio:a Cincinnati Enquirer/Ohio Newspaper Poll of likely voters finds Republican Rob Portman with a substantial +15% over Democrat Lee Fisher, 55% to 40%.

PollTrack Rates This Race Leans Republican

GOVERNOR RACE CHART: REP-28 TCTC-8 DEM-14

Posted Sep 28, 2010 at 2:10 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

GOVERNOR RACE CHART 2010

Predicted Balance of Power: REP-28 TCTC-8 DEM-14

California: Too-Close-To-Call

Connecticut: Leaning Democrat

Florida: Too-Close-To-Call

Georgia: Leaning Republican

Illinois: Leaning Republican

Maine: Leaning Republican

Maryland: Too-Close-To-Call

Massachusetts: Too-Close-To-Call

Minnesotta: Too-Close-To-Call

New Mexico: Too-Close-To-Call

Ohio: Leaning Republican

Oregon: Too-Close-To-Call

New Hampshire: Leans Democrat

Pennsylvania: Leaning Republican

Rhode Island: Leans Democrat

Texas: Leaning Republican

Vermont: Too-Close-To-Call

Wisconsin: Leaning Republican
 
 
Likely/Safe Democrat: AR, CO, HI, NY
Likely/Safe Republican: AK, AZ, IA, MI, NV, OK, SC

U. S. SENATE RACE CHART: DEM-49 TCTC-5 REP-46

Posted Sep 27, 2010 at 2:09 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

U. S. SENATE RACE CHART 2010

 

Predicted Balance of Power: DEM-49 TCTC-5 REP-46 

California: Leaning Democrat DEM +6.4%
 
Colorado : Too-Close-To-Call REP +4.5%
 
Florida : Likely Republican REP +11.5%
 
Illinois: Too-Close-To-Call REP +3.0%
 
Kentucky: Leaning Republican REP +7.0%
 
Missouri: Leaning Republican REP +8.0%
 
Nevada: Too-Close-To-Call DEM +1.3%
 
New Hampshire: Leaning Republican REP +7.0%
 
Pennsylvania: Leaning Republican REP +6.0%
 
Washington: Too-Close-To-Call DEM +5.3%
 
West Virginia: Too-Close-To-Call DEM +2.0%
 
Wisconsin : Leaning Republican REP +8.0%
 
 
Likely/Safe DEM: CT, DE, HI, MD, NY-1, NY-2, OR, VT
 
Likely/Safe GOP: AR, IN, LA, AL, AK, AZ, GA, IA, ID, KS, ND, OH, OK, SC, SD, UT

Alaska US Senate: Republican With Big Lead

Posted Sep 24, 2010 at 1:21 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

Despite the write-in campaign of incumbent Republican U.S. Senator Lisa Murkowski, who lost her bid for the GOP nomination to Tea Party maverick Joe Miller, Millers holds a substantial lead in a just released Rasmussen survey in the U.S. Senate race in Alaska. The poll shows Miller leading  with 42%, followed by Murkowski at 27% and Democrat Scott McAdams (D) at 25%.

Delaware U.S. Senate: Democrat With Big Lead

Posted Sep 23, 2010 at 12:46 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

A Fox News poll in Delaware reports that Democrat Chris Coons holds a substantial +15% lead over Republican Christine O'Donnell in the U.S. Senate race among likely voters, 54% to 39%. Another poll, from CNN/Time/Opinion Research, reports a similar result, with Coons leading O'Donnell by +16%, 55% to 39%.

 

PollTrack Rates The Race Leans Democrat

CA Governor 2010: Too-Close-To-Call

Posted Sep 22, 2010 at 2:00 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

A Public Policy Polling survey in California reports that Democrat Jerry Brown now leads Republican Meg Whitman in the race for governor, 47% to 42%.

PollTrack Moves The Race From Leaning Republican to Too-Close-To-Call

Pennsylvania U.S. Senate: Too-Close-To-Call

Posted Sep 21, 2010 at 1:08 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

A Times Leader poll in Pennsylvania reports that Republican Pat Toomey holds a modest lead over Democratic Rep. Joe Sestak in the U.S. Senate race, 40% to 36%. With 24% undecided, PollTrack continues to raye the race too-close=to-call.

Georgia Governor 2010: Slight GOP Advantage

Posted Sep 20, 2010 at 2:16 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

A SurveyUSA poll in the Georgia U.S. Senate race reports that Republican candidate Nathan Deal holds a considerable lead among likely voters over Democratic challenger and former Gov. Roy Barnes, 49% to 38%, with Libertarian candidate John Monds at 9%. Another poll, by InsiderAdvantage/WSB-TV poll finds former Barnes tied with Deal in the race for governor, 42% to 42%.

PollTrack Rates The Race Leaning Republican

Nevada Governor 2010: Likely Republican

Posted Sep 17, 2010 at 2:16 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

A Las Vegas Review-Journal/Mason-Dixon poll in the gubernatorial race in Nevada reports that Republican Brian Sandoval holds a considerable +16% lead over Democrat lead Rory Reid, 52% to 36%.

PollTrack Rates The Race Likely Republican

Washington US Senate Race 2010: Democrat Murray Ahead

Posted Sep 16, 2010 at 1:52 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

A new Elway Poll in Washington state reports that incumbent Democrat U.S. Sen. Patty Murray holds an +8% lead over GOP challenger Dino Rossi, 50% to 41%. PollTrack notes that Murrary hovers at the all-important 50% mark.

PollTrack Rates The Race Leaning Democrat

Nevada US Senate 2010: Too-Close-To-Call

Posted Sep 15, 2010 at 1:26 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

Despite small divergences in the polling of the Nevada U.S. Senate race, it looks like the race is virtually tied at this point. A  Reuters/Ipsos poll reports that the Democratic incumbent Harry Reid holds a narrow lead among likely voters over Republican Sharron Angle, 46% to 44%; a new Rasmussen survey has the race tied at 48%; and a Fox News poll reports a narrow lead for Angle, at 45% to 44%.

CA Governor 2010: Republican Has Slight Edge

Posted Sep 14, 2010 at 1:55 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

A just released SurveyUSA poll in California reports that Republican Meg Whitman leads Democrat Jerry Brown in the race for governor by a modest margin, 47% to 40%.

 PollTrack Rates The Race Leans Republican

CA US Senate: Too Close To Call

Posted Sep 13, 2010 at 12:41 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

A new SurveyUSA poll in California reports that Republican challenger Carly Fiorina barely edges Democratic incumbent Sen. Barbara Boxer in the U.S. Senate race, 48% to 46%.

 

PollTrack Rates The Race Too-Close-To-Call

WV Special Election US Senate: PollTrack Moves Race To Leaning Democrat

Posted Sep 10, 2010 at 1:58 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

With two recent polls showing considerable tightening in the West Virginia U.S. Senate race--Democrat Joe Manchin now holds an aggregate +5.5% lead over GOP challenger, John Raese, 49% to 43.5%--PollTrack moves the race from Safe Democrat to Leaning Democrat

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VOICES ON THE GROUND: Campaign Commercials 2010

Posted Sep 09, 2010 at 6:50 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

Check into VOICES ON THE GROUND (located bottom left of the homepage) for an ongoing, "on the ground" view of campaign 2010--a steady stream of statewide and local campaign commercials across the nation.

Kentucky US Senate 2010: Republican Ahead

Posted Sep 09, 2010 at 1:29 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

A new WHAS11/Courier-Journal Bluegrass Poll in Kentucky reports that Republican and Tea Party favorite Rand Paul has expanded his lead to 15% over Democrat Jack Conway in the U.S. Senate race, 55% to 40%. An Anzalone Research poll in Kentucky shows a MUCH closer race with Paul leading Conway (D) by +3%, 48% to 45%. And a new CNN/Time/Opinion Research survey reports that the race is tied at 46% among registered voters.

PollTrack Continues To Rate The Race Too-Close-To-Call

Ohio Governor 2010: Leaning Red

Posted Sep 08, 2010 at 1:25 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

A new Columbus Dispatch poll in Ohio reports that Republican John Kasich leads incumbent Democratic Gov. Ted Strickland by a commanding +12% in the race for governor, 49% to 37%.

 

PollTrack Rates The Race Leans Republican

Ohio US Senate 2010: Leaning Red

Posted Sep 07, 2010 at 1:24 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

A just released Public Policy Polling survey in the Ohio U.S. Senate race reports that Republican Rob Portman has a +7% lead among likely voters over Lee Fisher, 45% to 38%. A Columbus Dispatch poll in Ohio reports that Portman leads Fisher by a whopping 13 points, 50% to 37%.

PollTrack Rates The Race Leans Republican

NY Gov. 2010: Safe Democrat

Posted Sep 03, 2010 at 1:51 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

A Quinnipiac poll in New York reports that incumbent Democratic Attorney General Andrew Cuomo holds a commanding lead over either of his Republican rivals for governor: He bests Republican Rick Lazio, 57% to 25% and tops Carl Paladino, 60% to 23%.


PollTrack Rates The Race Safe Democrat

NY US Senate 2010: Democrat Incumbent Holds Solid Lead

Posted Sep 03, 2010 at 1:50 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

A just released Quinnipiac poll in New York reports that incumbent Democratic U.S. Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand holds a huge lead over each of her three possible Republican challengers for U.S. Senate: she tops Bruce Blakeman, 44% to 26%, leads David Malpass, 45% to 24%, and is ahead of Joseph DioGuardi, 43% to 28%.

PollTrack Rates The Race Likely Democrat

Nevada Governor 2010: Likely Republican

Posted Sep 02, 2010 at 1:39 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

A just released Las Vegas Review-Journal/Mason-Dixon poll in Nevada reports that Republican Brian Sandoval holds a considerable lead over Democrat Rory Reid in the race for governor among likely voters, 53% to 31%.

PollTrack Rates The Race Likely Republican

 

Missouri U.S. Senate: Leans Republican, But Slightly

Posted Sep 01, 2010 at 2:07 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

According to a new Missouri State University Poll, the U.S. Senate race between Republican Roy Blunt and Democrat Robin Carnahan has drawn to a virtual tie, with the Blunt at 49% and the Democrat at 48%.PollTrack's aggregate still suggests a Republican advantage.

 

PollTrack Continues To Rate The Race Leans Republican