Presidential Race Maps Writing on the Wall

ELECTION NIGHT LIVE BLOGGING 2 November at 6:00 PM EST

Posted Oct 31, 2010 at 10:07 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

Tune into PollTrack for live blogging on Election Night, 2 November at 6:00 EST. We'll have constant updates and polling analysis throughout the evening on key races in the U.S. House and Senate plus Governor's races.

GOVERNOR RACE CHART 2010: REP-29 TCTC-4 DEM-16 IND-1

Posted Oct 31, 2010 at 10:01 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

GOVERNOR RACE CHART 2010

Predicted Balance of Power: REP-29 TCTC-4 DEM-16 IND-1

California: Leaning Democrat DEM+6.4%

Colorado: Leaning Democrat  DEM+7.6%

*Connecticut:  Too-Close-To-Call Leaning Democrat DEM-0.3%

Florida: Too-Close-To-Call REP+1.7%

*Hawaii: Leaning Democrat Too-Close-To-Call DEM+6.5

Illinois: Leaning Republican REP+4.5%

Massachusetts: Leaning Democrat DEM+4.6

Minnesota: Leaning Democrat DEM+5.4%

Ohio: Leaning Republican REP+3.0%

Oregon: Too-Close-To-Call DEM+0.4%

Pennsylvania: Leaning Republican REP+7.0%

Rhode Island: Leaning Independent IND+8.0%

Vermont: Too-Close-To-Call DEM+5.0%

Likely/Safe Democrat: AR, MD, NH, NY

Likely/Safe Republican: AK, AZ, GA, IA, ME, MI, NM, NV, OK, SC, TX, WI

U. S. SENATE RACE CHART 2010: DEM-50 TCTC-2 REP-48

Posted Oct 31, 2010 at 9:35 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

U. S. SENATE RACE CHART 2010 Predicted Balance of Power: DEM-50 TCTC-2 REP-48

Alaska: Leaning Independent (Since both of the two leading candidates has promised to caucus with the GOP, this race will continue to count in the GOP column.) IND +5.5%

California: Leaning Democrat DEM +4.3%
 
*Colorado: Leaning Republican (From Too-Close-To-Call REP +3.0%

ConnecticutLikely Democratic DEM +10.7%
 
Florida : Likely Republican REP +11.5%
 
Illinois: Too-Close-To-Call REP REP +3.5%
 
Kentucky: Leaning Republican REP +8.3%
 
Missouri: Likely Republican REP +8.0%
 
*Nevada: Leaning Republican (From Too-Close-To-Call) REP +4.0%
 
New Hampshire: Leaning Republican REP +7.0%
 
*Pennsylvania: Leaning Republican (From Too-Close-To-Call) REP +3.8%
 
Washington: Too-Close-To-Call  TIE

*West Virginia: Leaning Democrat Too-Close-To-Call DEM +4.5%

Wisconsin: Leaning Republican REP +8.0%
 
 
Likely/Safe DEM: DE, HI, MD, NY-1, NY-2, OR, VT
 

Likely/Safe GOP: AR, IN, LA, AL, AZ, GA, IA, ID, KS, ND, OH, OK, SC, SD, UT

GOVERNOR RACE CHART 2010: REP-28 TCTC-6 DEM-15 IND-1

Posted Oct 30, 2010 at 3:16 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

GOVERNOR RACE CHART 2010

Predicted Balance of Power: REP-28 TCTC-6 DEM-15 IND-1

California: Leaning Democrat 

Colorado: Leaning Democrat

Connecticut: Leaning Democrat

Florida: Too-Close-To-Call

Georgia: Leaning Republican

Hawaii: Too-Close-To-Call

Illinois: Leaning Republican

Maine: Too-Close-To-Call 

Maryland: Leaning Democrat

Massachusetts: Leaning Democrat 

Minnesota: Too-Close-To-Call (From Leaning Democrat)

New Mexico: Leaning Republican 

North Carolina: Leaning Republican

Ohio: Leaning Republican (from Too-Close-To-Call)

Oregon: Too-Close-To-Call

New Hampshire: Leaning Democrat

Pennsylvania: Leaning Republican

Rhode Island: Leaning Independent IND-1 (From Too-Close-To-Call)

Texas: Leaning Republican

Vermont: Too-Close-To-Call

Wisconsin: Leaning Republican
 
 
Likely/Safe Democrat: AR, NY
Likely/Safe Republican: AK, AZ, IA, MI, NV, OK, SC

U. S. SENATE RACE CHART 2010: DEM-49 TCTC-6 REP-45

Posted Oct 30, 2010 at 3:14 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

U. S. SENATE RACE CHART 2010 Predicted Balance of Power: DEM-49 TCTC-6 REP-45

Alaska: Leaning Independent (Since both of the two leading candidates has promised to caucus with the GOP, this race will continue to count in the GOP column.) IND +5.5%

California: Leaning Democrat DEM +4.0%
 
Colorado: Too-Close-To-Call REP +2.0%

ConnecticutLikely Democratic DEM +14.7%
 
Florida : Likely Republican REP +11.5%
 
Illinois: Too-Close-To-Call REP +3.0%
 
Kentucky: Leaning Republican REP +8.3%
 
Missouri: Likely Republican REP +8.0%
 
Nevada: Too-Close-To-Call DEM +1.3%
 
New Hampshire: Leaning Republican REP +7.0%
 
Pennsylvania: Too-Close-To-Call REP +2.0%
 
Washington: Too-Close-To-Call DEM +2.0%

*West Virginia: Too-Close-To-Call (From Leaning Democrat) DEM +4.5%

Wisconsin: Leaning Republican REP +8.0%
 
 
Likely/Safe DEM: DE, HI, MD, NY-1, NY-2, OR, VT
 

Likely/Safe GOP: AR, IN, LA, AL, AZ, GA, IA, ID, KS, ND, OH, OK, SC, SD, UT

GOVERNOR RACE CHART 2010: REP-28 TCTC-5 DEM-16 IND-1

Posted Oct 28, 2010 at 4:28 PM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

GOVERNOR RACE CHART 2010

Predicted Balance of Power: REP-28 TCTC-5 DEM-16 IND-1

California: Leaning Democrat 

Colorado: Leaning Democrat

Connecticut: Leaning Democrat

Florida: Too-Close-To-Call

Georgia: Leaning Republican

Hawaii: Too-Close-To-Call

Illinois: Leaning Republican

Maine: Too-Close-To-Call 

Maryland: Leaning Democrat

Massachusetts: Leaning Democrat 

Minnesota: Leaning Democrat 

New Mexico: Leaning Republican 

North Carolina: Leaning Republican

Ohio: Leaning Republican (from Too-Close-To-Call)

Oregon: Too-Close-To-Call

New Hampshire: Leaning Democrat

Pennsylvania: Leaning Republican

Rhode Island: Leaning Independent IND-1 (From Too-Close-To-Call)

Texas: Leaning Republican

Vermont: Too-Close-To-Call

Wisconsin: Leaning Republican
 
 
Likely/Safe Democrat: AR, NY
Likely/Safe Republican: AK, AZ, IA, MI, NV, OK, SC


U. S. SENATE RACE CHART 2010: DEM-50 TCTC-5 REP-45

Posted Oct 28, 2010 at 4:28 PM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

U. S. SENATE RACE CHART 2010 Predicted Balance of Power: DEM-50 TCTC-5 REP-45

*Alaska: Leaning Independent (From Too-Close-To-Call) (Since both of the two leading candidates has promised to caucus with the GOP, this race will continue to count in the GOP column.) IND +5.5%

California: Leaning Democrat DEM +4.0%
 
Colorado: Too-Close-To-Call REP +2.0%

ConnecticutLikely Democratic DEM +14.7%
 
Florida : Likely Republican REP +11.5%
 
Illinois: Too-Close-To-Call REP +3.0%
 
Kentucky: Leaning Republican REP +8.3%
 
Missouri: Likely Republican REP +8.0%
 
Nevada: Too-Close-To-Call DEM +1.3%
 
New Hampshire: Leaning Republican REP +7.0%
 
Pennsylvania: Too-Close-To-Call REP +2.0%
 
Washington: Too-Close-To-Call DEM +2.0%

West Virginia: Leaning Democrat DEM +4.8%

Wisconsin: Leaning Republican REP +8.0%
 
 
Likely/Safe DEM: DE, HI, MD, NY-1, NY-2, OR, VT
 

Likely/Safe GOP: AR, IN, LA, AL, AZ, GA, IA, ID, KS, ND, OH, OK, SC, SD, UT

U. S. SENATE RACE CHART 2010: DEM-50 TCTC-5 REP-45

Posted Oct 27, 2010 at 4:10 PM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

U. S. SENATE RACE CHART 2010 Predicted Balance of Power: DEM-50 TCTC-5 REP-45

Alaska: Too-Close-To-Call  IND-+4.5% (Since both of the two leading candidates has promised to caucus with the GOP, this race will now count in the GOP column.)

California: Leaning Democrat DEM +4.0%
 
Colorado: Too-Close-To-Call REP +2.0%

ConnecticutLikely Democratic DEM +14.7%
 
Florida : Likely Republican REP +11.5%
 
Illinois: Too-Close-To-Call REP +3.0%
 
Kentucky: Leaning Republican REP +8.3%
 
Missouri: Likely Republican REP +8.0%
 
Nevada: Too-Close-To-Call DEM +1.3%
 
New Hampshire: Leaning Republican REP +7.0%
 
Pennsylvania: Too-Close-To-Call REP +2.0%
 
Washington: Too-Close-To-Call DEM +2.0%

*West Virginia: Leaning Democrat (from Too-Close-To-Call) DEM +4.8%

Wisconsin: Leaning Republican REP +8.0%
 
 
Likely/Safe DEM: DE, HI, MD, NY-1, NY-2, OR, VT
 

Likely/Safe GOP: AR, IN, LA, AL, AZ, GA, IA, ID, KS, ND, OH, OK, SC, SD, UT

GOVERNOR RACE CHART 2010: REP-28 TCTC-6 DEM-16

Posted Oct 27, 2010 at 4:09 PM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

GOVERNOR RACE CHART 2010

Predicted Balance of Power: REP-28 TCTC-6 DEM-16

California: Leaning Democrat 

Colorado: Leaning Democrat

Connecticut: Leaning Democrat

Florida: Too-Close-To-Call

Georgia: Leaning Republican

Hawaii: Too-Close-To-Call

Illinois: Leaning Republican

Maine: Too-Close-To-Call 

Maryland: Leaning Democrat

Massachusetts: Leaning Democrat 

Minnesota: Leaning Democrat 

New Mexico: Leaning Republican 

North Carolina: Leaning Republican

Ohio: Leaning Republican (from Too-Close-To-Call)

Oregon: Too-Close-To-Call

New Hampshire: Leaning Democrat

Pennsylvania: Leaning Republican

Rhode Island: Too-Close-To-Call (from Leaning Democrat)

Texas: Leaning Republican

Vermont: Too-Close-To-Call

Wisconsin: Leaning Republican
 
 
Likely/Safe Democrat: AR, NY
Likely/Safe Republican: AK, AZ, IA, MI, NV, OK, SC

GOVERNOR RACE CHART 2010: REP-28 TCTC-6 DEM-16

Posted Oct 27, 2010 at 1:54 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

GOVERNOR RACE CHART 2010

Predicted Balance of Power: REP-28 TCTC-6 DEM-16

California: Leaning Democrat 

Colorado: Leaning Democrat

Connecticut: Leaning Democrat

Florida: Too-Close-To-Call

Georgia: Leaning Republican

Hawaii: Too-Close-To-Call

Illinois: Leaning Republican

Maine: Too-Close-To-Call 

Maryland: Leaning Democrat

Massachusetts: Leaning Democrat 

Minnesota: Leans Democrat 

New Mexico: Leaning Republican 

North Carolina: Leaning Republican

Ohio: Leaning Republican (from Too-Close-To-Call)

Oregon: Too-Close-To-Call

New Hampshire: Leans Democrat

Pennsylvania: Leaning Republican

*Rhode Island: Too-Close-To-Call (from Leans Democrat)

Texas: Leaning Republican

Vermont: Too-Close-To-Call

Wisconsin: Leaning Republican
 
 
Likely/Safe Democrat: AR, NY
Likely/Safe Republican: AK, AZ, IA, MI, NV, OK, SC

U. S. SENATE RACE CHART 2010: DEM-49 TCTC-6 REP-45

Posted Oct 27, 2010 at 1:54 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

U. S. SENATE RACE CHART 2010 Predicted Balance of Power: DEM-49 TCTC-6 REP-45

Alaska: Too-Close-To-Call  IND-+4.5% (Since both of the two leading candidates has promised to caucus with the GOP, this race will now count in the GOP column.)

California: Leaning Democrat DEM +4.0%
 
Colorado: Too-Close-To-Call REP +2.0%

*ConnecticutLikely Democratic (from Leaning Democrat) DEM +14.7%
 
Florida : Likely Republican REP +11.5%
 
Illinois: Too-Close-To-Call REP +3.0%
 
*Kentucky: Leaning Republican (from Too-Close-To-Call) REP +8.3%
 
Missouri: Likely Republican REP +8.0%
 
Nevada: Too-Close-To-Call DEM +1.3%
 
New Hampshire: Leaning Republican REP +7.0%
 
Pennsylvania: Too-Close-To-Call REP +2.0%
 
Washington: Too-Close-To-Call DEM +2.0%

West Virginia: Too-Close-To-Call DEM +2.0%

Wisconsin : Leaning Republican REP +8.0%
 
 
Likely/Safe DEM: DE, HI, MD, NY-1, NY-2, OR, VT
 

Likely/Safe GOP: AR, IN, LA, AL, AZ, GA, IA, ID, KS, ND, OH, OK, SC, SD, UT

U. S. SENATE RACE CHART 2010: DEM-49 TCTC-7 REP-44

Posted Oct 26, 2010 at 5:14 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

U. S. SENATE RACE CHART 2010 Predicted Balance of Power: DEM-49 TCTC-7 REP-44

Alaska: Too-Close-To-Call  IND-+4.5% (Since both of the two leading candidates has promised to caucus with the GOP, this race will now count in the GOP column.)

*California: Leaning Democrat (From Too-Close-To-Call) DEM +4.0%
 
Colorado: Too-Close-To-Call REP +2.0%

ConnecticutLeaning Democrat DEM +6.7%
 
Florida : Likely Republican REP +11.5%
 
Illinois: Too-Close-To-Call REP +3.0%
 
Kentucky: Too-Close-To-Call REP +4.0%
 
Missouri: Likely Republican REP +8.0%
 
Nevada: Too-Close-To-Call DEM +1.3%
 
New Hampshire: Leaning Republican REP +7.0%
 
Pennsylvania: Too-Close-To-Call REP +2.0%
 
Washington: Too-Close-To-Call DEM +2.0%

West Virginia: Too-Close-To-Call DEM +2.0%

Wisconsin : Leaning Republican REP +8.0%
 
 
Likely/Safe DEM: DE, HI, MD, NY-1, NY-2, OR, VT
 

Likely/Safe GOP: AR, IN, LA, AL, AZ, GA, IA, ID, KS, ND, OH, OK, SC, SD, UT

Latest Polls For U.S. Senate

Posted Oct 26, 2010 at 5:14 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

Here are the latest polls for competitive U.S. Senate Races:

CALIFORNIA: Los Angeles Times/USC Democratic U.S. Sen. Barbara Boxer leads republican Carly Fiorina, 50% to 42%.

COLORADO: SurveyUSA Democratic U.S. Sen. Michael Bennet is tied with Republican Ken Buck at 47% each;  Public Policy Polling Bennet tied with Buck at 47%.

FLORIDA: St. Petersburg Times/Miami Herald Republican Marco Rubio leads Independent candidate, Gov. Charlie Crist, 41% to 26%, with Democratic Rep. Kendrick Meek at 20%.

ILLINOIS: Chicago Tribune/WGN GOP Rep. Mark Kirk leads Democrat Alexi Giannoulias, 44% to 41%

MISSOURI: Mason-Dixon Republican Roy Blunt leads Democrat Robin Carnahan, 49% to 40%.

PENNSYLVANIA: Morning Call/Muhlenberg College Republican Pat Toomey leads Democratic Rep. Joe Sestak, 47% to 42%.

WEST VIRGINIA: Public Policy Polling Democratic Gov. Joe Manchin leads Republican John Raese, 50% to 44%.

GOVERNOR RACE CHART 2010: REP-28 TCTC-5 DEM-17

Posted Oct 25, 2010 at 1:57 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

GOVERNOR RACE CHART 2010

Predicted Balance of Power: REP-28 TCTC-5 DEM-17

California: Leaning Democrat 

Colorado: Leaning Democrat (from Likely Democrat)

Connecticut: Leaning Democrat

Florida: Too-Close-To-Call

Georgia: Leaning Republican

Hawaii: Too-Close-To-Call

Illinois: Leaning Republican

Maine: Too-Close-To-Call 

Maryland: Leaning Democrat

*Massachusetts: Leaning Democrat (From Too-Close-To-Call)

Minnesota: Leans Democrat 

New Mexico: Leaning Republican 

North Carolina: Leaning Republican

Ohio: Leaning Republican (from Too-Close-To-Call)

Oregon: Too-Close-To-Call

New Hampshire: Leans Democrat

Pennsylvania: Leaning Republican

Rhode Island: Leans Democrat

Texas: Leaning Republican

Vermont: Too-Close-To-Call

Wisconsin: Leaning Republican
 
 
Likely/Safe Democrat: AR, NY
Likely/Safe Republican: AK, AZ, IA, MI, NV, OK, SC

Latest Polls In Races For Governor

Posted Oct 25, 2010 at 1:56 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

Here are the latest polls in the close races for governor:

CALIFORNIA: Los Angeles Times/USC Democrat Jerry Brown leads Republican Meg Whitman, 52% to 39%.

COLORADO: SurveyUSA Democrat John Hickenlooper leads Constitution Party candidate Tom Tancredo, 49% to 39%, with Republican Dan Maes at 9%.

FLORIDA: St. Petersburg Times/Miami Herald Republican Rick Scott leads Democrat Alex Sink, 44% to 41%.

ILLINOIS: Mason-Dixon Republican Bill Brady's leads Democratic Gov. Pat Quinn, 44% to 40%.

MARYLAND: Baltimore Sun Democratic Gov. Martin O'Malley leads Republican Bob Ehrlich, 52% to 38%.

MASSACHUSETTS: Boston Globe Democratic Gov. Deval Patrick leads Republican Charles Baker, 43% to 39%, with independent Timothy Cahill at 8% and Green-Rainbow candidate Jill Stein at 2%.

MINNESOTA: Star Tribune Minnesota Democrat Mark Dayton leads Republican Tom Emmer, 41% to 34%, with Independent Tom Horner at 13%.

NORTH CAROLINA: Insider Advantage Republican Nikki Haley leads Democrat Vincent Sheheen, 51% to 37%.

OHIO: Dayton Daily News/Ohio Newspaper Republican John Kasich leads Democratic Gov. Ted Strickland, 49% to 47%.

Latest Polls In Races For Governor

Posted Oct 22, 2010 at 2:03 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

Here are the latest polls in competitive races for governor:


CALIFORNIA: SurveyUSA Democrat Jerry Brown leads Republican Meg Whitman, 47% to 40%; Public Policy Institute of California Brown leads Whitman, 44% to 36%.

COLORADO: Fox News Democrat John Hickenlooper leads Independent Tom Tancredo, 45% to 40%; Reuters/Ipsos Hickenlooper leads Tancredo, 46% to 35%, with GOP candidate Maes at 14%.

GEORGIA: InsiderAdvantage Republican Nathan Deal leads Democrat Roy Barnes, 45% to 40%.

ILLINOIS: Public Policy Polling Republican Bill Brady leads Democratic Gov. Pat Quinn, 42% to 41%.

MARYLAND: Gonzales Research Democratic Gov. Martin O'Malley leads former GOP Gov. Bob Ehrlich, 47% to 42%.

NEW YORK: Siena Democrat Andrew Cuomo leads Republican Carl Paladino, 63% to 26%.

NORTH CAROLINA: Rasmussen Republican Nikki Haley leads Democrat Vincent Sheheen, 47% to 38%.

OHIO: CNN/Time/Opinion Research Democratic Gov. Ted Strickland leads John Kasich, 48% to 47%; Quinnipiac Republican John Kasich leads Democratic Gov. Ted Strickland, 51% to 41%.

OREGON: DailyKos/Public Policy Polling Democrat John Kitzhaber leads Chris Dudley, 48% to 47%.

Latest Polls For U.S. Senate

Posted Oct 21, 2010 at 1:12 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

Here are the latest polls for competitive races for U.S. Senate:

ALASKA: CNN/Time/Opinion Research Independent write-in candidate, Republican U.S. Sen. Lisa Murkowski is tied with Republican Joe Miller at 37% each; Democrat Scott McAdams is at 23%.

CALIFORNIA: SurveyUSA Democratic Sen. Barbara Boxer leads Republican Carly Fiorina, 46% to 44%.

COLORADO: Fox News poll Republican Ken Buck leads Democratic U.S. Sen. Michael Bennet, 46% to 45%.

ILLINOIS: Public Policy Polling Republican Rep. Mark Kirkleads Democrat Alexi Giannoulias, 42% to 40%.

KENTUCKY: Rasmussen survey Republican Rand Paul leads Democrat Jack Conway, 47% to 42%; Mason-Dixon Paul leads Conway, 48% to 43%.

NORTH CAROLINA: Public Policy Polling Republican Sen. Richard Burr leads Democrat Elaine Marshall, 48% to 40%.

PENNSYLVANIA: Muhlenberg College/Allentown Morning Democratic Rep. Joe Sestak leads Republican Pat Toomey, 44% to 41%, with 15% still undecided; Public Policy Polling Sestak leads Toomey, 46% to 45%.

WASHINGTON: McClatchy-Marist Democrat Sen. Patty Murray leads Republican Dino Rossi, 48% to 47%; Public Policy Polling Democratic Sen. Patty Murray leads Republican Dino Rossi, 49% to 47%.

WEST VIRGINIA: Rasmussen Republican John Raese leads Democrat Gov. Joe Manchin, 50% to 43%;  Public Policy Polling Sestak leads Toomey, 46% to 45%.

WISCONSIN: Wisconsin Public Radio Republican Ron Johnson leads Democratic Sen. Russ Feingold, 49% to 47%.

U. S. SENATE RACE CHART 2010: DEM-48 TCTC-9 REP-43

Posted Oct 21, 2010 at 1:12 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

U. S. SENATE RACE CHART 2010

 Predicted Balance of Power: DEM-48 TCTC-9 REP-43


Alaska: Too-Close-To-Call  IND-+4.5%

California: Too-Close-To-Call DEM +3.7%
 
Colorado: Too-Close-To-Call REP +2.0%

ConnecticutLeaning Democrat DEM +6.7%
 
Florida : Likely Republican REP +11.5%
 
Illinois: Too-Close-To-Call REP +3.0%
 
Kentucky: Too-Close-To-Call REP +4.0%
 
Missouri: Likely Republican REP +8.0%
 
Nevada: Too-Close-To-Call DEM +1.3%
 
New Hampshire: Leaning Republican REP +7.0%
 
*Pennsylvania: Too-Close-To-Call (from Leaning Republican) REP +2.0%
 
Washington: Too-Close-To-Call DEM +4%

West Virginia: Too-Close-To-Call DEM +2.0%
 
Wisconsin : Leaning Republican REP +8.0%
 
 
Likely/Safe DEM: DE, HI, MD, NY-1, NY-2, OR, VT
 

Likely/Safe GOP: AR, IN, LA, AL, AZ, GA, IA, ID, KS, ND, OH, OK, SC, SD, UT

GOVERNOR RACE CHART 2010: REP-28 TCTC-6 DEM-16

Posted Oct 20, 2010 at 1:51 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

GOVERNOR RACE CHART 2010

Predicted Balance of Power: REP-28 TCTC-6 DEM-16

California: Leaning Democrat 

Colorado: Leaning Democrat (from Likely Democrat)

Connecticut: Leaning Democrat

Florida: Too-Close-To-Call

Georgia: Leaning Republican

Hawaii: Too-Close-To-Call

Illinois: Leaning Republican

Maine: Too-Close-To-Call 

Maryland: Leaning Democrat

Massachusetts: Too-Close-To-Call

Minnesota: Leans Democrat 

New Mexico: Leaning Republican 

North Carolina: Leaning Republican

*Ohio: Leaning Republican (from Too-Close-To-Call)

Oregon: Too-Close-To-Call

New Hampshire: Leans Democrat

Pennsylvania: Leaning Republican

Rhode Island: Leans Democrat

Texas: Leaning Republican

Vermont: Too-Close-To-Call

Wisconsin: Leaning Republican
 
 
Likely/Safe Democrat: AR, NY
Likely/Safe Republican: AK, AZ, IA, MI, NV, OK, SC

U. S. SENATE RACE CHART 2010: DEM-48 TCTC-8 REP-44

Posted Oct 20, 2010 at 1:51 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

U. S. SENATE RACE CHART 2010

 Predicted Balance of Power: DEM-48 TCTC-8 REP-44


Alaska: Too-Close-To-Call  IND-+4.5%

California: Too-Close-To-Call DEM +3.7%
 
*Colorado: Too-Close-To-Call (from Leaning Republican) REP +2.0%

ConnecticutLeaning Democrat DEM +6.7%
 
Florida : Likely Republican REP +11.5%
 
Illinois: Too-Close-To-Call REP +3.0%
 
*Kentucky: Too-Close-To-Call (from Leaning Republican) REP +4.0%
 
Missouri: Likely Republican (from Leaning Republican) REP +8.0%
 
Nevada: Too-Close-To-Call DEM +1.3%
 
New Hampshire: Leaning Republican REP +7.0%
 
Pennsylvania: Leaning Republican REP +6.0%
 
*Washington: Too-Close-To-Call (from Leaning Democrat) DEM + 4.0%
 
West Virginia: Too-Close-To-Call DEM +2.0%
 
Wisconsin : Leaning Republican REP +8.0%
 
 
Likely/Safe DEM: DE, HI, MD, NY-1, NY-2, OR, VT
 

Likely/Safe GOP: AR, IN, LA, AL, AZ, GA, IA, ID, KS, ND, OH, OK, SC, SD, UT strong>

GOVERNOR RACE CHART 2010: REP-27 TCTC-7 DEM-16

Posted Oct 19, 2010 at 1:26 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

GOVERNOR RACE CHART 2010

Predicted Balance of Power: REP-27 TCTC-7 DEM-16

California: Leaning Democrat 

*Colorado: Leaning Democrat (from Likely Democrat)

Connecticut: Leaning Democrat

Florida: Too-Close-To-Call

Georgia: Leaning Republican

Hawaii: Too-Close-To-Call

Illinois: Leaning Republican

Maine: Too-Close-To-Call 

Maryland: Leaning Democrat

Massachusetts: Too-Close-To-Call

Minnesota: Leans Democrat 

New Mexico: Leaning Republican 

North Carolina: Leaning Republican

Ohio: Too-Close-To-Call 

Oregon: Too-Close-To-Call

New Hampshire: Leans Democrat

Pennsylvania: Leaning Republican

Rhode Island: Leans Democrat

Texas: Leaning Republican

Vermont: Too-Close-To-Call

Wisconsin: Leaning Republican
 
 
Likely/Safe Democrat: AR, NY
Likely/Safe Republican: AK, AZ, IA, MI, NV, OK, SC

Latest Polls In Close US Senate Races

Posted Oct 19, 2010 at 1:26 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

Here are the latest polls in competitive U.S. Senate races:

CALIFORNIA: Reuters/Ipsos Democratic U.S. Sen. Barbara Boxer just edges out Republican Carly Fiorina, 46% to 45%.

COLORADO: Rasmussen Republican Ken Buck leads Democratic Sen. Michael Bennet, 47% to 45%.

WASHINGTON: Washington Poll Democratic U.S. Sen. Patty Murray leads Republican Dino Rossi, 50% to 42%.

Latest Polls In Close Races For Governor

Posted Oct 18, 2010 at 12:56 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

Here are the latest polls in competitive gubernatorial races:

CALIFORNIA: Reuters/Ipsos Democrat Jerry Brown leads Republican Meg Whitman, 48% to 44%. Rasmussen reports Democrat Jerry Brown leading Meg Whitman, 50% to 44%.

COLORADO: Rasmussen Democrat John Hickenlooper leads IndependentTom Tancredo, 42% to 38%, with Republican Dan Maes at 12%.

FLORIDA: Sunshine State News Democrat Alex Sink leads Republican Rick Scott, 48% to 45%.

NEW MEXICO: SurveyUSA Republican Susana Martinez leads Democrat Diane Denish, 54% to 42%.

OHIO: Ohio Poll Republican John Kasich leads Democratic Gov. Ted Strickland, 51% to 43% with 6% undecided.

OREGON: SurveyUSA Democrat John Kitzhaber edges Republican Chris Dudley, 46% to 45%.

VERMONT: Vermont Public Radio Republican Brian Dubie leads Democrat Peter Shumlin, 44% to 43%.

Latest Polls In Races For Governor

Posted Oct 15, 2010 at 1:20 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

Here are the latest polls in competitive governor's races:

ARIZONA: Rocky Mountain GOP Gov. Jan Brewer leads Democrat Terry Goddard, 46% to 35%.

FLORIDA: Public Policy Polling Democrat Alex Sink leads Republican Rick Scott, 46% to 41%.

HAWAII: Honolulu Civil Beat Democrat Neil Abercrombie leads Republican Duke Aiona, 47% to 44%.

MAINE: Critical Insights Republican Paul LePage leads Democrat Libby Mitchell, 32% to 26%, with Independent Eliot Cutler at 11%; Rasmussen reports a closer race, with LePage just edging Mitchell, 35% to 32%, and Cutler at 21%.

MASSACHUSETTS: Suffolk University/7News Democrat Deval Patrick leads Republican Charlie Baker, 46% to 39%, with Independent Tim Cahill at 10%.

MICHIGAN: Baydoun Consulting/Foster McCollum Republican Rick Snyder leads Democrat Virg Bernero, 50% to 37%.

NEVADA: Public Policy Polling survey Republican Brian Sandoval's leads Democrat Rory Reid, 52% to 43%.

PENNSYLVANIA: Magellan Strategies survey Republican Tom Corbett leads Democrat Dan Onorato, 48% to 38% with 11% undecided.

RHODE ISLAND: Quest Research Democrat Frank Caprio leads Independent Lincoln Chafee, 37% to 33%, with Republican John Robitaille at 22%.

SOUTH CAROLINA: Winthrop University poll Republican Nikki Haley leads Democrat Vincent Sheheen, 46% to 37%.

GOVERNOR RACE CHART 2010: REP-27 TCTC-7 DEM-16

Posted Oct 15, 2010 at 1:19 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

GOVERNOR RACE CHART 2010

Predicted Balance of Power: REP-27 TCTC-7 DEM-16

California: Leaning Democrat 

Connecticut: Leaning Democrat

Florida: Too-Close-To-Call

Georgia: Leaning Republican

*Hawaii: Too-Close-To-Call (From Likely Democrat)

Illinois: Leaning Republican

*Maine: Too-Close-To-Call (from Leaning Republican)

Maryland: Leaning Democrat

Massachusetts: Too-Close-To-Call

Minnesota: Leans Democrat 

New Mexico: Leaning Republican 

North Carolina: Leaning Republican

Ohio: Too-Close-To-Call 

Oregon: Too-Close-To-Call

New Hampshire: Leans Democrat

Pennsylvania: Leaning Republican

Rhode Island: Leans Democrat

Texas: Leaning Republican

Vermont: Too-Close-To-Call

Wisconsin: Leaning Republican
 
 
Likely/Safe Democrat: AR, CO, NY
Likely/Safe Republican: AK, AZ, IA, MI, NV, OK, SC

More Polling In Competitive US Senate Races

Posted Oct 14, 2010 at 1:01 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

More polling in competitive US Senate Races:

FLORIDA: Quinnipiac Republican Marco Rubio swamps Independent Gov. Charlie Crist, 44% to 30%, with Democratic Rep. Kendrick Meek at 22%.

NEVADA: Suffolk University Democratic US Sen. Harry Reid edges Republican Sharron Angle, 46% to 43%. Rasmussen Angle leads Reid, 49% to 48%.

WASHINGTON: CNN/Time/Opinion Research Democratic Sen. Patty Murray leads Republican Dino Rossi, 51% to 43%.

WEST VIRGINIA: Rasmussen Democratic Gov. Joe Manchin trails Republican John Raese, 49% to 46%,\.

WISCONSIN: CNN/Time/Opinion Research Republican Ron Johnson leads Democratic Sen. Russ Feingold, 52% to 44%.

U. S. SENATE RACE CHART 2010: DEM-49 TCTC-5 REP-46

Posted Oct 14, 2010 at 1:01 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

U. S. SENATE RACE CHART 2010

 Predicted Balance of Power: DEM-49 TCTC-5 REP-46


Alaska: Too-Close-To-Call  IND-+4.5%

* California: Too-Close-To-Call  (from Leaning Democrat) DEM +3.7%
 
Colorado: Leaning Republican REP +7.0%

ConnecticutLeaning Democrat DEM +6.7%
 
Florida : Likely Republican REP +11.5%
 
Illinois: Too-Close-To-Call REP +3.0%
 
Kentucky: Leaning Republican REP +7.0%
 
Missouri: Likely Republican (from Leaning Republican) REP +8.0%
 
Nevada: Too-Close-To-Call DEM +1.3%
 
New Hampshire: Leaning Republican REP +7.0%
 
Pennsylvania: Leaning Republican REP +6.0%
 
*Washington: Leaning Democrat (from Too-Close-To-Call DEM + 7.3%
 
West Virginia: Too-Close-To-Call DEM +2.0%
 
Wisconsin : Leaning Republican REP +8.0%
 
 
Likely/Safe DEM: DE, HI, MD, NY-1, NY-2, OR, VT
 

Likely/Safe GOP: AR, IN, LA, AL, AZ, GA, IA, ID, KS, ND, OH, OK, SC, SD, UT strong>

GOVERNOR RACE CHART 2010 REP-28 TCTC-5 DEM-17

Posted Oct 13, 2010 at 1:23 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

GOVERNOR RACE CHART 2010

Predicted Balance of Power: REP-28 TCTC-5 DEM-17

California: Leaning Democrat 

Connecticut: Leaning Democrat

Florida: Too-Close-To-Call

Georgia: Leaning Republican

Illinois: Leaning Republican

Maine: Leaning Republican

Maryland: Leaning Democrat

Massachusetts: Too-Close-To-Call

Minnesota: Leaning Democrat (from too-Close-To-Call)

New Mexico: Leaning Republican 

North Carolina: Leaning Republican (from Likely Republican)

Ohio: Too-Close-To-Call 

Oregon: Too-Close-To-Call

New Hampshire: Leaning Democrat

Pennsylvania: Leaning Republican

Rhode Island: Leaning Democrat

*Texas: Likely Republican (from Leaning Republican)

Vermont: Too-Close-To-Call

Wisconsin: Leaning Republican
 
 
Likely/Safe Democrat: AR, CO, HI, NY
Likely/Safe Republican: AK, AZ, IA, MI, NV, OK, SC

Latest Polls In Close US Senate Races

Posted Oct 13, 2010 at 1:22 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

Here's a recap of the latest polls in some of the most competitive US Senate races:

 

ALASKA: DailyKos/Public Policy Polling Republican Joe Miller just edges write-in hopeful and incumbent GOP US Senator Lisa Murkowski, 35% to 33%. Democrat Scott McAdams is at 26%.

CONNECTICUT: Fox News Democrat Richard Blumenthal leads Republican Linda McMahon, 49% to 43%.

DELAWARE: Monmouth University Democrat Chris Coons holds a huge lead over Republican Christine O'Donnell, 57% to 38%.

ILLINOIS: Rasmussen Democrat Alexi Giannoulias leads GOP Rep. Mark Kirk, 44% to 43%, with Green Party candidate LeAlan Jones polling at 4%.

NEVADA: Fox News Republican Sharon Angle leads Sen. Harry Reid, 49% to 47%. Public Policy Polling Democrat Reid edges Republican Angle, 49% to 48%.

NEW HAMPSHIRE: Rasmussen Republican Kelly Ayotte is ahead of Democratic US Rep. Paul Hodes, 51% to 44%.

NORTH CAROLINA: High Point University Republican Sen. Richard Burr leads Democrat Elaine Marshall, 45% to 31%.

WASHINGTON: Elway Democratic Sen. Patty Murray leads Republican Dino Rossi, 51% to 38%. Fox News Republican  Rossi just edges Democrat Murray, 47% to 46%.

WISCONSIN Rasmussen Republican Ron Johnson leads Russ Feingold, 52% to 45%. Reuters/Ipsos Johnson leads Feingold, 51% to 44%.

WEST VIRGINIA: Public Policy Polling Democrat Joe Manchin has now reclaimed the lead from Republican John Raese, 48% to 45%.

U. S. SENATE RACE CHART 2010: DEM-48 TCTC-6 REP-46

Posted Oct 11, 2010 at 1:51 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

U. S. SENATE RACE CHART 2010

 Predicted Balance of Power: DEM-48 TCTC-6 REP-46


Alaska: Too-Close-To-Call  IND-+4.5%

* California: Too-Close-To-Call  (from Leaning Democrat) DEM +3.7%
 
Colorado: Leaning Republican REP +7.0%

ConnecticutLeaning Democrat DEM +6.7%
 
Florida : Likely Republican REP +11.5%
 
Illinois: Too-Close-To-Call REP +3.0%
 
Kentucky: Leaning Republican REP +7.0%
 
Missouri: Likely Republican (from Leaning Republican) REP +8.0%
 
Nevada: Too-Close-To-Call DEM +1.3%
 
New Hampshire: Leaning Republican REP +7.0%
 
Pennsylvania: Leaning Republican REP +6.0%
 
Washington: Too-Close-To-Call DEM +5.3%
 
West Virginia: Too-Close-To-Call DEM +2.0%
 
Wisconsin : Leaning Republican REP +8.0%
 
 
Likely/Safe DEM: DE, HI, MD, NY-1, NY-2, OR, VT
 

Likely/Safe GOP: AR, IN, LA, AL, AZ, GA, IA, ID, KS, ND, OH, OK, SC, SD, UT

U. S. SENATE RACE CHART 2010 DEM-49 TCTC-5 REP-46

Posted Oct 08, 2010 at 1:42 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

U. S. SENATE RACE CHART 2010

 Predicted Balance of Power: DEM-49 TCTC-5 REP-46


Alaska: Too-Close-To-Call  IND-+4.5%

California: Leaning Democrat DEM +6.4%
 
Colorado: Leaning Republican REP +7.0%

ConnecticutLeaning Democrat DEM +6.7%
 
Florida : Likely Republican REP +11.5%
 
Illinois: Too-Close-To-Call REP +3.0%
 
Kentucky: Leaning Republican REP +7.0%
 
*Missouri: Likely Republican (from Leaning Republican) REP +8.0%
 
Nevada: Too-Close-To-Call DEM +1.3%
 
New Hampshire: Leaning Republican REP +7.0%
 
Pennsylvania: Leaning Republican REP +6.0%
 
Washington: Too-Close-To-Call DEM +5.3%
 
West Virginia: Too-Close-To-Call DEM +2.0%
 
Wisconsin : Leaning Republican REP +8.0%
 
 
Likely/Safe DEM: DE, HI, MD, NY-1, NY-2, OR, VT
 

Likely/Safe GOP: AR, IN, LA, AL, AZ, GA, IA, ID, KS, ND, OH, OK, SC, SD, UT strong>

GOVERNOR RACE CHART 2010 REP-28 TCTC-5 DEM-17

Posted Oct 08, 2010 at 1:42 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

GOVERNOR RACE CHART 2010

Predicted Balance of Power: REP-28 TCTC-5 DEM-17

California: Leaning Democrat 

Connecticut: Leaning Democrat

Florida: Too-Close-To-Call

Georgia: Leaning Republican

Illinois: Leaning Republican

Maine: Leaning Republican

Maryland: Leaning Democrat

Massachusetts: Too-Close-To-Call

Minnesota: Leans Democrat (from too-Close-To-Call)

New Mexico: Leaning Republican 

*North Carolina: Leaning Republican (from Likely Republican)

Ohio: Too-Close-To-Call 

Oregon: Too-Close-To-Call

New Hampshire: Leans Democrat

Pennsylvania: Leaning Republican

Rhode Island: Leans Democrat

Texas: Leaning Republican

Vermont: Too-Close-To-Call

Wisconsin: Leaning Republican
 
 
Likely/Safe Democrat: AR, CO, HI, NY
Likely/Safe Republican: AK, AZ, IA, MI, NV, OK, SC

U. S. SENATE RACE CHART 2010: DEM-49 TCTC-5 REP-46

Posted Oct 07, 2010 at 1:41 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

U. S. SENATE RACE CHART 2010

 Predicted Balance of Power: DEM-49 TCTC-5 REP-46


Alaska: Too-Close-To-Call  IND-+4.5%

California: Leaning Democrat DEM +6.4%
 
Colorado: Leaning Republican REP +7.0%

*ConnecticutLeaning Democrat(from Too-Close-To-Call) DEM +6.7%
 
Florida : Likely Republican REP +11.5%
 
Illinois: Too-Close-To-Call REP +3.0%
 
Kentucky: Leaning Republican REP +7.0%
 
Missouri: Leaning Republican REP +8.0%
 
Nevada: Too-Close-To-Call DEM +1.3%
 
New Hampshire: Leaning Republican REP +7.0%
 
Pennsylvania: Leaning Republican REP +6.0%
 
Washington: Too-Close-To-Call DEM +5.3%
 
West Virginia: Too-Close-To-Call DEM +2.0%
 
Wisconsin : Leaning Republican REP +8.0%
 
 
Likely/Safe DEM: DE, HI, MD, NY-1, NY-2, OR, VT
 

Likely/Safe GOP: AR, IN, LA, AL, AZ, GA, IA, ID, KS, ND, OH, OK, SC, SD, UT strong>

GOVERNOR RACE CHART 2010 REP-28 TCTC-5 DEM-17

Posted Oct 06, 2010 at 12:59 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

GOVERNOR RACE CHART 2010

Predicted Balance of Power: REP-28 TCTC-5 DEM-17

California: Leaning Democrat 

Connecticut: Leaning Democrat

Florida: Too-Close-To-Call

Georgia: Leaning Republican

Illinois: Leaning Republican

Maine: Leaning Republican

Maryland: Leaning Democrat

Massachusetts: Too-Close-To-Call

*Minnesota: Leans Democrat (from too-Close-To-Call)

New Mexico: Leaning Republican 

Ohio: Too-Close-To-Call 

Oregon: Too-Close-To-Call

New Hampshire: Leans Democrat

Pennsylvania: Leaning Republican

Rhode Island: Leans Democrat

Texas: Leaning Republican

Vermont: Too-Close-To-Call

Wisconsin: Leaning Republican
 
 
Likely/Safe Democrat: AR, CO, HI, NY
Likely/Safe Republican: AK, AZ, IA, MI, NV, OK, SC

U. S. SENATE RACE CHART 2010 DEM-49 TCTC-5 REP-46

Posted Oct 05, 2010 at 1:30 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

U. S. SENATE RACE CHART 2010

 

Predicted Balance of Power: DEM-49 TCTC-5 REP-46

Alaska: Too-Close-To-Call  IND-+4.5%

California: Leaning Democrat DEM +6.4%
 
Colorado: Leaning Republican REP +7.0%

*ConnecticutLeaning Democrat(from Too-Close-To-Call) DEM +6.7%
 
Florida : Likely Republican REP +11.5%
 
Illinois: Too-Close-To-Call REP +3.0%
 
Kentucky: Leaning Republican REP +7.0%
 
Missouri: Leaning Republican REP +8.0%
 
Nevada: Too-Close-To-Call DEM +1.3%
 
New Hampshire: Leaning Republican REP +7.0%
 
Pennsylvania: Leaning Republican REP +6.0%
 
Washington: Too-Close-To-Call DEM +5.3%
 
West Virginia: Too-Close-To-Call DEM +2.0%
 
Wisconsin : Leaning Republican REP +8.0%
 
 
Likely/Safe DEM: DE, HI, MD, NY-1, NY-2, OR, VT
 

Likely/Safe GOP: AR, IN, LA, AL, AZ, GA, IA, ID, KS, ND, OH, OK, SC, SD, UT strong>

GOVERNOR RACE CHART 2010 REP-28 TCTC-6 DEM-16

Posted Oct 05, 2010 at 1:29 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

GOVERNOR RACE CHART 2010

Predicted Balance of Power: REP-28 TCTC-6 DEM-16

*California: Leaning Democrat (from Too-Close-To-Call)

Connecticut: Leaning Democrat

Florida: Too-Close-To-Call

Georgia: Leaning Republican

Illinois: Leaning Republican

Maine: Leaning Republican

Maryland: Leaning Democrat

Massachusetts: Too-Close-To-Call

Minnesota: Too-Close-To-Call

New Mexico: Leaning Republican 

Ohio: Too-Close-To-Call 

Oregon: Too-Close-To-Call

New Hampshire: Leans Democrat

Pennsylvania: Leaning Republican

Rhode Island: Leans Democrat

Texas: Leaning Republican

Vermont: Too-Close-To-Call

Wisconsin: Leaning Republican
 
 
Likely/Safe Democrat: AR, CO, HI, NY
Likely/Safe Republican: AK, AZ, IA, MI, NV, OK, SC

U. S. SENATE RACE CHART 2010: DEM-48 TCTC-6 REP-46

Posted Oct 04, 2010 at 1:44 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

U. S. SENATE RACE CHART 2010

 

Predicted Balance of Power: DEM-48 TCTC-6 REP-46

*Alaska: Too-Close-To-Call  (from Leaning Republican) IND-+4.5%

California: Leaning Democrat DEM +6.4%
 
*Colorado: Leaning Republican (from Too-Close-To-Call) REP +7.0%

ConnecticutToo-Close-To-Call DEM +4.0% (from Likely DEM)
 
Florida : Likely Republican REP +11.5%
 
Illinois: Too-Close-To-Call REP +3.0%
 
Kentucky: Leaning Republican REP +7.0%
 
Missouri: Leaning Republican REP +8.0%
 
Nevada: Too-Close-To-Call DEM +1.3%
 
New Hampshire: Leaning Republican REP +7.0%
 
Pennsylvania: Leaning Republican REP +6.0%
 
Washington: Too-Close-To-Call DEM +5.3%
 
West Virginia: Too-Close-To-Call DEM +2.0%
 
Wisconsin : Leaning Republican REP +8.0%
 
 
Likely/Safe DEM: DE, HI, MD, NY-1, NY-2, OR, VT
 
Likely/Safe GOP: AR, IN, LA, AL, AZ, GA, IA, ID, KS, ND, OH, OK, SC, SD, UT strong>

Colorado US Senate 2010: Too-Close-To-Call

Posted Oct 01, 2010 at 1:38 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

A survey by CNN/Time/Opinion Research in Colorado reports that Republican Ken Buck leads incumbent Democratic U.S. Sen. Michael Bennetfor U.S. Senate by +5% among likely voters, 49% to 44%.

PollTrack Continues To Rate The Race Too-Close-To-Call