Presidential Race Maps Writing on the Wall

Next Week: Updates On Election 2010

Posted Nov 05, 2010 at 4:09 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

PollTrack will take a break from regular reporting next week to prepare for our coverage of the 2012 Presidential cycle. But do check in next week: we will have additional analysis of the 2010 and late updates. Plus, we will resume our weekly assessment of President Obama's approval ratings.

POLLTRACK in 2011: Stay Tuned for Upcoming Coverage

Posted Nov 04, 2010 at 8:19 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

In the coming weeks, PollTrack will introduce an innovative map devoted to tracking Election 2012, specifically the relative state of the incumbent Democratic president and a generic Republican challenger in their state-by-state hunt for electoral votes. Two years out, PollTrack will test the mood of all 50 states (and DC), gauging the mood of the country, its regions, and states as the current president nears his bid for reelection.

WRITING ON THE WALL will continue to report on statewide trends for local and national political figures, taking a look at upcoming local races in 2011, and their implications for the upcoming national cycle in 2012.

PRESIDENTIAL: In addition to our innovating tracking of the 2012 Election, the presidential page will continue to follow the relative popularity of the Obama administration as well as national trends for the Republican and Democratic Part as well as any independent parties.

VOICES ON THE GROUND: Will resume next year with reports from Americans on the ground--political and cultural figures and interested citizens, alike--reporting on local political and cultural trends leading up to the 2012 cycle, from the perspective that matters most: with voters on the ground.


So stay tuned to PollTrack.

CO and WA US Senate: Both Appear To Lean Blue

Posted Nov 03, 2010 at 3:31 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

According to polling analysis this morning, it appears that Democrat Bennet in Colorado and Democrat Murray in Washington have won their respective US Senate contests.

Final US Senate Distribution of Power, as of this morning: Democrats 53 seats, Republicans 47 seats.

In the Florida Governor's Race, it appears that Republic Scott has won.

Signing Off . . . .

Posted Nov 02, 2010 at 5:31 PM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

It's 1:30 in the East. I'd had a long day, so I'm signing off. I will resume analysis tomorrow morning. Thanks for tuning in and for being patient. We wound up the evening with all of the big questions answered, and most of the smaller ones, too.

Democrats Maintain Control of US Senate

Posted Nov 02, 2010 at 4:33 PM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

With Harry Reid projected to win reelection to the US Senate in Nevada, PollTrack projects that the Democrats will maintain control of the US Senate.

Illinois US Senate: GOP Pick Up

Posted Nov 02, 2010 at 4:22 PM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

Another GOP pick up in the US Senate: Illinois, where Kirk wins.

Democrat Jerry Brown . . .

Posted Nov 02, 2010 at 4:13 PM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

. . . wins gubernatorial race in California.

Republican Governor Jan Brewer wins reelection in Arizona.

Ohio Governor: GOP

Posted Nov 02, 2010 at 4:02 PM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

The Ohio Governor's race has been called for Republican Kasich.

Us Senate California: Democrat Boxer Wins

Posted Nov 02, 2010 at 3:52 PM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

Democrat Boxer wins over Republican Fiorina in the California race for US Senate.

PA Not Strong for Democrats.

Posted Nov 02, 2010 at 3:50 PM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

With a GOP pick up for Governor in PA, it now appears that the US Senate seat will also go to the Republicans. Republican Toomey defeats Democrat Sestak, 51% to 49%. 

Exit Polls in CA and WA Look Good For Democrats

Posted Nov 02, 2010 at 3:06 PM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

Exit Polls out of CA and WA suggest strong showings for Jerry Brown for CA Gov, Barbara Boxer for CA US Sen and Patty Murray for WA US Senate. A win by Boxer and Murray would make a GOP take over of the US Senate virtually impossible. Stay tuned.

Colorado Governor: Big Win for Democrats

Posted Nov 02, 2010 at 2:48 PM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

A big gubernatorial win for Democrats in a key swing state--Colorado: John Hickenloper wins.

Wisconsin: Big Lose For Democrats

Posted Nov 02, 2010 at 2:44 PM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

Republican Ron Johnson defeats Democratic incumbent US Senator Russ Feingold in Wisconsin.

Three GOP Gubernatorial Pick Ups

Posted Nov 02, 2010 at 2:40 PM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

The GOP has picked up three Governor's seats:

 

New Mexico: Martinez, REP

Pennsylvania: Corbett, REP

Michigan: Synder, REP

 

The GOP also holds one seat in South Carolina: Halley

 

US Senate Races Remain Competitive For Democrats

Posted Nov 02, 2010 at 2:18 PM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

As many Democratic held seats change hands in the US House, a surprising number of US Senate races remain competitive for Democrats: races in Pennsylvania, Nevada, Colorado, Illinois remain too close to call. Republican candidates were in the lead in all of these races in pre-election polling for these states. This may could be a long evening.

10:00 Projections . . .

Posted Nov 02, 2010 at 2:14 PM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

MA Gov: Patrick, DEM

MD Gov: O'Malley, DEM

AZ US Senate: McCain, REP

IA: Gralley, REP

All as expected.

Two More Projections . . .

Posted Nov 02, 2010 at 1:47 PM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

Republican Vitter wins reelection to US Senate in Louisiana, Republican Roy Blunt wins open US Senate race in Missouri.Both on target for GOP, both predicted by PollTrack.

Independents Determined House Outcome

Posted Nov 02, 2010 at 1:45 PM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

A problem for Democrats in the House--and potentially for the President's reelection--is not the enthusiasm of GOP voters (which was high). The bigger problem is the dramatic shift of Independent voters, who gave Obama a decisive edge in 2008. This year, according to Exit Polls, Independent voters broke for Republican House candidates by a widely margin: 55% to 40% for the Democrats, a figure in line with the 1994 midterms, in which Republicans made substantial gains. The Democrats will need to win these voters back in order to be competitive in 2012.

GOP Gains In House Significant

Posted Nov 02, 2010 at 1:10 PM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

Early numbers and exit poll analysis suggest a substantial GOP pick up in the US House--between 55 and 60 seats now possible, if not likely. It now appears almost certain that the Democrats will loose control of the House.

9:00 PM Projections

Posted Nov 02, 2010 at 1:08 PM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

Latest Projected Winners;

New York: Gov-Cuomo DEM, US Sen-Gillibrand DEM, US Sen-Schumer DEM

SD Senate: Thune GOP

ND: Hoeven GOP (REP Pickup)

TX: Perry, GOP, Gov

 

Democrats Loose Key House Race

Posted Nov 02, 2010 at 12:55 PM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

Democrat Perriello looses to Republican Hurt in Virginia US House race. Another key GOP pick up, another sign of impending Republican take over. US Senate remains in play, but Democrats may soon have their majority locked up.

Key House Loses For Democrats

Posted Nov 02, 2010 at 12:45 PM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

Key loses for Democrats in US House races in Indiana and Virginia. A GOP takeover of house is looking increasingly likely.

Grayson Looses in Florida

Posted Nov 02, 2010 at 12:43 PM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

Congressman Alan Grayson has lost his reelection race in Florida. Bad news for the Democrats, re: keeping control of the House.

Key US Senate Victory for Democrats

Posted Nov 02, 2010 at 12:40 PM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

NBC has called West Virginia US Senate race for Democrat Joe Manchin. PollTrack correctly predicted this. This is a key race for the Democrats, denying the GOP a key pick up. Without WV, the road for GOP control of the Senate just got a whole lot harder (if not impossible).

With a spate of key loses for the Democrats in US Houses races-- especially in Florida and Virginia--it is looking increasingly likely the the GOP will take over the house.

 

CT US Senate . . .

Posted Nov 02, 2010 at 12:34 PM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

. . . stays in Democratic hands, as state Attorney General Richard Blumenthal defeats GOP candidate Linda McMahon. A critical seat for the Democrats, re: control of the US Senate.

AR Senate Goes GOP, AR Givernor Stays Democratic

Posted Nov 02, 2010 at 12:33 PM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

A projection in Arkansas. A pick up for the GOP in the US Senate race as Blanch Lincoln is defeated by Republican Boozman.

In the gubernatorial race, the Democrats stay put with the reelection of Beebe.

Projections At 8:00 PM

Posted Nov 02, 2010 at 12:04 PM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

A few key races called:

New Hamphire US Senate: Ayotte wins for the GOP

Delaware US Senate: Chris Coons Wins for the Democrat

Florida: Marco Rubio Wins for the GOP

The three races are on target for their respective parties. No upsets. PollTrack correctly picked all three

Ohio US Senate Seat Stays in the GOP Column

Posted Nov 02, 2010 at 11:32 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

Ohio goes to Rob Portman, the Republican US Senate candidate. Seat remains GOP. But does his wide margin of victory bode poor for incumbent Democratic Governor Strickland's reelection chances. That race appears closer, with GOP challenger Kasich leading in the polls going into Election Day.

Early Exists Suggest GOP Gains In House

Posted Nov 02, 2010 at 11:30 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

Early exit poll analysis--combined with demographic analysis of individual US House races--suggest a VERY difficult road ahead for Democrats. It looks like a GOP take over.

The US Senate bodes a bit better for the Democrats, where enough seats may remain blue to keep control.

Governor's races are tilting GOP, with the lion's share of seats going to the Republicans.

CNN: Rand Paul . . . .

Posted Nov 02, 2010 at 11:03 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

Republican GOP candidate wins in Kentucky. A key U.S. seat for the GOP.

Other races called, but also predicted: GOP takes Democratic seat in Indiana US Senate. Jim Demint, GOP US Senator from South Carolina wins reelection. Democratic US Senator Leahy wins reelection in Vermont.

BIG win for the GOP in Kentucky.

Turn Out Low In Nevada

Posted Nov 02, 2010 at 10:53 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

Reports from Nevada suggest that turn out was low in the state today. Could help Democrat Reid who has a powerful voter turnout operation. Or Republican Angle, who's supporters are more enthusiastic, and thus more likely to vote. This could be very close.

Voters Turned Off To Both Parties

Posted Nov 02, 2010 at 10:51 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

One interesting tidbit from national Exit Polls: voters seem to dislike Republicans as much as Democrats in congress. Yet, with the Democrats controlling both houses--and the presidency--they are the party perceived by voters as "in power." Thus, anti-incumbent mood could hurt Democrats far more than Republicans.

GOP Paul Ahead in Kentucky

Posted Nov 02, 2010 at 10:37 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

Early analysis in the Kentucky US Senate race suggest that Republican candidate, and Tea Party favorite, Rand Paul is doing well in his race against Democrat Jack Conway. This is a key race for the GOP. Without Kentucky they have no hope of taking back the Senate. At this point, it looks like they'll meet this threshold, perhaps handily.

Wrong Track?

Posted Nov 02, 2010 at 10:31 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

Another problem for the Democrats, according to just released Exit Polls: a wide majority of voters believe the nation is headed on the wrong track. Stay tuned.

Preliminary National Exit Polls

Posted Nov 02, 2010 at 10:29 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

Preliminary data is starting to trickle in via national exit polls. Three observation:

[1] President Obama's approval number with today's voters is 45%.

[2] The vast majority of respondents--80%--are concerned about the future of the nation's economy.

[3] Approximately 40% of voters today say they are Tea Party sympathizers.


These numbers may bode poorly for the Democrats. But further analysis of the raw data reported by AP may be necessary to make sure these numbers are accurate. Item 3 should be of greatest concern for Democrats, suggesting a sharp conservative, anti-Washington tilt to the electorate. Right now, these numbers suggest a strong showing for the GOP.

Election 2010: The Analysis Begins

Posted Nov 02, 2010 at 10:24 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

Hello All!

I will now begin blogging about Election 2010, analyzing the results as the come in. Two things: BE PATIENT. Substantive results may not start rolling in until well after 8:00 PM, EST. Unless a race is a blowout, it will not be called solely on Exit Poll data. Thus, a substantial portion of the ACTUAL vote must come in before many races--particularly competitive ones--can be called.

 

So stay tuned. Thanks!

FINAL U. S. SENATE RACE CHART 2010: DEM-50 TCTC-1 REP-49

Posted Nov 01, 2010 at 11:10 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

U. S. SENATE RACE CHART 2010 Predicted Balance of Power: DEM-50 TCTC-1 REP-49

*Alaska: Too-Close-To-Call (From Leaning Independent) (Since both of the two leading candidates has promised to caucus with the GOP, this race will continue to count in the GOP column.) IND +1.5%

California: Leaning Democrat DEM +4.3%
 
Colorado: Leaning Republican REP +3.0%

ConnecticutLikely Democratic DEM +10.7%
 
Florida : Likely Republican REP +11.5%
 
Illinois: Leaning Republican REP +3.3%
 
Kentucky: Leaning Republican REP +8.3%
 
Missouri: Likely Republican REP +8.0%
 
Nevada: Leaning Republican REP +4.0%
 
New Hampshire: Leaning Republican REP +7.0%
 
Pennsylvania: Leaning Republican REP +4.5%
 
Washington: Too-Close-To-Call  DEM +0.3%

West Virginia: Leaning Democrat DEM +4.5%

Wisconsin: Leaning Republican REP +8.0%
 
 
Likely/Safe DEM: DE, HI, MD, NY-1, NY-2, OR, VT
 

Likely/Safe GOP: AR, IN, LA, AL, AZ, GA, IA, ID, KS, ND, OH, OK, SC, SD, UT

FINAL GOVERNOR RACE CHART 2010: REP-30 TCTC-1 DEM-18 IND-1

Posted Nov 01, 2010 at 11:09 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

GOVERNOR RACE CHART 2010

Predicted Balance of Power: REP-30 TCTC-1 DEM-18 IND-1

California: Leaning Democrat DEM+6.4%

Colorado: Leaning Democrat  DEM+4.6%

Connecticut: Leaning Republican REP+1.7%

*Florida: Too-Close-To-Call TIE

Hawaii: Leaning Democrat DEM+5.0%

Illinois: Leaning Republican REP+4.5%

Massachusetts: Leaning Democrat DEM+4.6%

Minnesota: Leaning Democrat DEM+5.4%

Ohio: Leaning Republican REP+2.8%

Oregon: Leaning Democrat DEM+2.4%

Rhode Island: Leaning Independent IND+8.0%

Vermont: Leaning Democrat DEM+5.0%

Likely/Safe Democrat: AR, MD, NH, NY

Likely/Safe Republican: AK, AZ, GA, IA, ME, MI, NM, NV, OK, PA,  SC, TX, WI

GOVERNOR RACE CHART 2010: REP-29 TCTC-2 DEM-18 IND-1

Posted Nov 01, 2010 at 2:31 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

GOVERNOR RACE CHART 2010

Predicted Balance of Power: REP-29 TCTC-2 DEM-18 IND-1

California: Leaning Democrat DEM+6.4%

Colorado: Leaning Democrat  DEM+4.6%

Connecticut:  Too-Close-To-Call Leaning Republican REP+1.7%

Florida: Too-Close-To-Call REP+0.2%

Hawaii: Leaning Democrat DEM+5.0%

Illinois: Leaning Republican REP+4.5%

Massachusetts: Leaning Democrat DEM+4.6%

Minnesota: Leaning Democrat DEM+5.4%

Ohio: Leaning Republican REP+2.6%

*Oregon: Leaning Democrat (From Too-Close-To-Call) DEM+0.4%

Rhode Island: Leaning Independent IND+8.0%

Vermont: Leaning Democrat (From Too-Close-To-Call)DEM+5.0%

Likely/Safe Democrat: AR, MD, NH, NY

Likely/Safe Republican: AK, AZ, GA, IA, ME, MI, NM, NV, OK, PA,  SC, TX, WI

U. S. SENATE RACE CHART 2010: DEM-50 TCTC-1 REP-49

Posted Nov 01, 2010 at 2:17 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

U. S. SENATE RACE CHART 2010 Predicted Balance of Power: DEM-50 TCTC-1 REP-49

Alaska: Leaning Independent (Since both of the two leading candidates has promised to caucus with the GOP, this race will continue to count in the GOP column.) IND +1.5%

California: Leaning Democrat DEM +4.3%
 
Colorado: Leaning Republican REP +3.0%

ConnecticutLikely Democratic DEM +10.7%
 
Florida : Likely Republican REP +11.5%
 
*Illinois: Leaning Republican (From Too-Close-To-Call) REP +3.3%
 
Kentucky: Leaning Republican REP +8.3%
 
Missouri: Likely Republican REP +8.0%
 
Nevada: Leaning Republican REP +4.0%
 
New Hampshire: Leaning Republican REP +7.0%
 
Pennsylvania: Leaning Republican REP +3.8%
 
Washington: Too-Close-To-Call  DEM +0.3%

West Virginia: Leaning Democrat DEM +4.5%

Wisconsin: Leaning Republican REP +8.0%
 
 
Likely/Safe DEM: DE, HI, MD, NY-1, NY-2, OR, VT
 

Likely/Safe GOP: AR, IN, LA, AL, AZ, GA, IA, ID, KS, ND, OH, OK, SC, SD, UT