Presidential Race Maps Writing on the Wall

Intrade: The Bets Are On Republican Scott Brown

Posted Jan 17, 2010 at 3:51 PM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

Intrade, the futures trading website, offers yet another bit of evidence that the momentum is swinging towards the Republican in Massachusetts U.S. Senate Race: As of Sunday evening--after months of Democrat Marta Coakley leading by a wide margin--traders are now betting on Republican Scott brown to win: 70 to 38.9.

Lieberman Less Popular With Americans

Posted Dec 29, 2009 at 2:21 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

According to a new CNN/Opinion Research Survey, CT Independent Sen. Joe Lieberman's favorable rating with Americans has dropped almost 10-points in the past two weeks, from 40% to 31%. Perhaps most ominously for his political future, Lieberman's greatest decline--a 14-point drop--came among independents.

Support For Democratic Party Declines: A Harbinger of Midterm Loses?

Posted Dec 23, 2009 at 1:32 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

According to a new Wall Street Journal/NBC News poll, "less than a year after Inauguration Day, support for the Democratic Party continues to slump, amid a difficult economy and a wave of public discontent" . . . . For the first time, less than half of Americans [47%] approved of the job President Barack Obama was doing, marking a steeper first-year fall for this president than his recent predecessors. Also for the first time this year, the electorate was split when asked which party it wanted to see in charge after the 2010 elections. For months, a clear plurality favored Democratic control."Also telling in the survey: the president negative number is nearly the same as his positive rating: 46%. Do these numbers presage a significant loss of Democratic seats in next year's congressional elections. It's still early, but this kind of erosion has, in the past, led to a significant loss of seats in the midterm.

Houston Mayoralty 2009: City Becomes The Largest To Elect Gay Leader

Posted Dec 12, 2009 at 4:13 PM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

As per The New York Times: "Houston became the largest city in the country to elect an openly gay mayor Saturday night, as voters gave a solid victory to the [Democratic] city controller, Annise Parker. Cheers erupted at Ms. Parker’s campaign party as her opponent, Gene Locke, a former city attorney, conceded defeat after it became clear he could not overcome her lead of 53% to 47%. Throughout the campaign, Ms. Parker tried to avoid making an issue of her sexual orientation and emphasized her experience in overseeing the city’s finances. But she began her career as an advocate for gay rights in the 1980s, and it was lost on no one in Houston, a city of 2.2 million people, that her election would mark a milestone for gay men and lesbians around the country."

MA US Senate: Martha Coakley Wins Democratic Nomination

Posted Dec 08, 2009 at 1:15 PM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

According to the Associated Press, MA Attorney General "Martha M. Coakley [is] projected to win Tuesday's primary election in the race for the late Senator Edward M. Kennedy's storied seat . . . She [is] projected to face State Senator Scott Brown, a Republican, on Jan. 19. Massachusetts has not sent a Republican to the Senate in 37 years, so Ms. Coakley has the stronger chance of laying claim to the seat."

MA US Senate: Does Today's VERY Low Turnout Hurt Coakley

Posted Dec 08, 2009 at 11:00 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

Talking Points Memo reports that the turnout in today's Democratic primary in the Massachusetts' US Senate race is exceedingly low: "As of 3 p.m. ET, only 35,000 people had voted in Boston, less than 10% of the city's registered voters. The Boston Herald speculates that the lower turnout could possibly benefit Rep. Mike Capuano, who is widely seen as the underdog against state Attorney General Martha Coakley. For what it's worth, Capuano's home town of Somerville, where he served as mayor before his election to Congress in 1988, is having a relatively higher turnout -- at 1 p.m., it was a whopping 12.5 percent."

MA US Senate: Martha Coakley Ahead, But By How Much?

Posted Dec 08, 2009 at 1:38 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

According to the Boston Phoenix, polls on today's Democratic primary for the US Senate in Massachusetts are contradictory: The "internal polls of different candidates in the US Senate race seemed to be saying very different things. . . . Tom Kiley, pollster for Michael Capuano, and Celinda Lake, pollster for Martha Coakley, both confirmed for me today what I reported yesterday. Kiley says his poll, taken Sunday and Monday of this week, has Coakley around 35%, and Capuano 7 points behind, in the high 20s. Lake says her poll, taken Sunday through Tuesday, has Coakley at 41%, and Capuano at 20%. (Both have Pagliuca roughly around 10%-12% and falling slightly; Khazei around 7-10% and rising slightly; and some 15%-20% undecided.)  So one poll has a 7 point lead, and the other has a 21 point lead. That's an enormous discrepancy . . . Lake also insists that she is seeing absolutely no trending decline in Coakley's support, whereas Kiley says Coakley's support has dropped slowly but steadily"

 

Atlanta Mayoral Runoff: Kasim Reed Declared Winner

Posted Dec 07, 2009 at 1:30 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

For those of you following the mayoral runoff in Atlanta--with its razor thin margin of victory on 1 December: Kasim Reed has now been certified the winner, though it appears likely that his opponent, Mary Norwood "plans to ask for a recount. But Reed said he must act as though he will be Atlanta’s next mayor. Only a few weeks remain before his new job starts, he said, and he has to begin the complex task of transition."

MA US Senate: Coakley Still Ahead, But Capuano Is Gaining

Posted Dec 04, 2009 at 1:29 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

With a spate of new endorsements from powerful Massachusetts politicos, Rep. Mike Capuano is now solidly in second place in the Democratic primary for the Massachusetts Senate special election, according to a new Rasmussen Reports poll of likely Democratic primary voters. State Attorney General Martha Coakley continues to leads the primary pack, at 36%. Capuano is in second at 21%. Investor Stephen Pagliuca and community activist Alan Khazei are tied for third at 14%.

MA US Senate: Will New Spate Of Endorsements Shake Up Race

Posted Dec 01, 2009 at 1:13 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

Political Wire wonders whether a new spate of political endorsements could slice into Attorney General Martha Coakley's lead in the Democratic primary to fill the US Senate seat vacated by the late-Edward Kennedy: "In a move that could shake up a fairly sleepy race, former Massachusetts Gov. Michael Dukakis endorsed Rep. Michael Capuano for the senatorial seat left open by the death of Ted Kennedy . . .In the last week, Capuano has also been endorsed by Nancy Pelosi and Diane Patrick, Gov. Deval Patrick's wife. With just over a week to go until the Democratic primary, all polls have shown Massachusetts Attorney General Martha Coakley (D) with double-digit leads over Capuano, who polls second, and political newcomers Alan Khazei (D) and Stephen Pagliuca (D) . . . Interestingly, the Boston Globe endorsed Khazei this morning."

MA US Senate: Coakley Holds Comfortable Lead in Democratic Primary

Posted Nov 23, 2009 at 2:04 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

according to a Boston Globe poll, Democratic Attorney General Martha Coakley holds a solid lead in the four-way Democratic race for Ted Kennedy's open US Senate seat. Still, with just over two weeks until primary day, nearly three-quarters of likely voters have yet to decide who they will support. Coakley leads with 43%, followed by Rep. Michael Capuano (D) with 22%, Steve Pagliuca (D) with 15% and Alan Khazei (D) with 6%.

NJ Gov. Corzine's Lack Of Popularity Sealed His Fate

Posted Nov 18, 2009 at 1:06 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

According to a newly released Rasmussen survey, "60% of New Jersey voters say most of Republican Chris Christie’s winning support last week came from those who were voting against his opponent, incumbent Democratic Governor Jon Corzine . . . [The poll] finds that just 22% think the Republican candidate won the race with support from those who were actually voting for him rather than against Corzine. 18% are not sure. When pressed for specifics, 45% of voters in the state say the primary reason Christie was elected governor was dissatisfaction with Corzine’s job performance. 27% think the economy was the main reason for Christie’s victory, while 16% point to a general desire for change.
Only five percent 5% name Christie’s campaign promises as the chief reason he was elected. 2% attribute victory to his record as a prosecutor."

MA US Senate: Coakley Holds Large Lead in Democratic Primary

Posted Nov 16, 2009 at 2:07 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

In the upcoming race to chose a Democrat to run in January's special election to fill the late Ted Kennedy's Senate seat in Massachusetts, Attorney General Martha Coakley is wll ahead of the pack: 'Coakley continues to dominate the Democratic primary race for the Senate seat held by Edward M. Kennedy until his death Aug. 25. She leads in nearly every category of voter, according to a Suffolk University/7 News poll. Coakley, the only statewide officeholder in the field of four candidates, has a plurality among male and female voters as well as across every region of the state. . . . Overall, the survey shows Coakley taking 44% of the primary vote, with Boston Celtics co-owner Stephen Pagliuca second at 17%. They are followed by Rep. Michael E. Capuano at 16% and Alan Khazei, co-founder of the community service program City Year, at 3%."

VA Governor 2009: Obama Hurt Democrat Deeds

Posted Nov 11, 2009 at 1:09 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

Pollster Glen Bolger writes that President Obama became an important factor in voters' decision making in the 2009 Virginia gubernatorial race: "By a 55% to 35% margin, voters thought it was best to elect a governor who would serve as a check and balance to Obama . . . Concern about his policies overreaching permeated to a gubernatorial campaign and helped widen the size of McDonnell's win. It allowed the campaign to focus on issues that hadn't been working in recent years for Republican candidates. Concern about Obama's policies on spending, taxes, and jobs allowed McDonnell to thoroughly dominate those issues. The checks and balances message is a key one, but the bigger lesson about Obama's impact on Virginia is that his policies have put fiscal and economic messages back into play for Republicans."

Special Congressional Elections Not Kind To The GOP

Posted Nov 10, 2009 at 1:33 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

Special elections for vacated congressional seats in recent years have not been kind to the Republican Party. According to Politico "lost amid the Republican euphoria surrounding Tuesday's elections is this inconvenient fact: The GOP just got its clock cleaned, again, in another high-stakes House special election . . . It shouldn't have come as a surprise, since Republicans have lost 20 of the past 29 House special elections, dating back to January 2003. And in perhaps the most worrisome aspect of the trend, the GOP lost its fifth consecutive competitive special election in Republican-friendly territory."

NY-23: Political Realigniment or Fluke?

Posted Nov 09, 2009 at 1:04 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

Last Tuesday's special election in New York's 23rd congressional district was dramatic in in terms of its result: no Democrat has held this seat in over a century. So, does the result suggest a permanent realignment or a fluke in the district? The answer is unclear at this point. As Stuart Rothenberg suggests, a divided Republican party--fraught with in-fighting--may well have handed the seat to the Democrat in a largely GOP district: "Bill Owens' victory in New York's 23rd was the good news for Democrats this week and continued the party's winning streak in competitive House special elections. But the dynamic that helped Owens win- including a divided Republican Party- can't be ignored and aren't likely to be replicated again. For now, his reelection next year is a pure toss-up." Still, PollTrack wonders if the party's internal squabbles will cause it to lose more seats next year, as ultra-conservative attempts to knock off Republican moderates in the primaries results in unelectable GOP contenders in the general election.

Polling Highly Inaccurate in NY-23

Posted Nov 05, 2009 at 12:26 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

Polls in NY-23 were highly inaccurate, in the end, for three reasons: [1] congressional districts are very difficult to sample, with too small a population to get a readable and representative sample. [2] the race was highly volatile [3] one candidate dropped out, thus making it almost impossible to gauge where here supporters would ultimately wind up over such a short time period. The polling director of Public Policy Polling, which was way off in its numbers in the district, writes: ""I made a poor judgment call by not just killing it when Scozzafava dropped out and then endorsed Owens. Like any pollster we will make mistakes, we will just try not to make the same ones twice. Obviously the bizarre machinations in the race last weekend made it extremely volatile and if we ever a poll a race this strange again we will make better decisions (or maybe make the most prudent decision to just sit such a contest out!) But I apologize for putting bad information out there, it is very embarrassing."

Anti-Gay Marriage Forces Win In Maine

Posted Nov 04, 2009 at 2:39 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

With nearly all precincts in, the anti-gay marriage forces have won the referendum to reject the state's recent legislative action to allow gay couples to marry:

REJECT SAME-SEX MARRIAGE LAW
Yes 291000 52.84%
No 259741 47.16%

NY-23: Democrat Owens Projected Winner

Posted Nov 03, 2009 at 3:58 PM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

Democrat Bill Owens has been projected the winner in the special election in New York's 23rd congressional district.

Maine Gay Marriage Vote: Razor Close, Now With Gay Marriage Opponents Leading

Posted Nov 03, 2009 at 3:15 PM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

Razor close in Maine, with opponents of gay marriage now maintaining a slight edge:

REJECT SAME-SEX MARRIAGE LAW
Yes 155361 50.31%
No 153453 49.69

Bloomberg Wins In New York

Posted Nov 03, 2009 at 2:53 PM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

Several news organizations have declared Michael Bloomberg as the winner of the Mayor's race in New York City over his Democratic Challenger, Bill Thompson.

NY-23: Close, With Democrat Leading

Posted Nov 03, 2009 at 2:51 PM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

With 63% of precincts reporting in the special election in New York's 23rd Congresional District, Democrat Bill Owens leads, but the race remains close:

 

Scozzafava (r) 5%

Owens (d) 49.3%

Hoffman (I) 45.5%

Looks Like A Bloomberg Victory In New York

Posted Nov 03, 2009 at 2:26 PM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

With Mike Bloomberg opening a modest +3% lead in New York City--and the borough of Queens, the independent mayor's strongest turf, holding the lion's share of votes still out--it looks like the incumbent mayor is headed for victory. Stay tuned.

AP Projection: Republican Chris Christie Wins In New Jersey

Posted Nov 03, 2009 at 2:10 PM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

The Associated Press projects Republican Chris Christie the winner over incumbent Democrat Jon Corzine in New Jersey's gubernatorial race.

Maine Gay Marriage Vote: It Could Not Get Any Closer

Posted Nov 03, 2009 at 2:06 PM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

While the vast majority of votes have yet to be counted--only 132 precincts have now reported out of 605--the vote on Maine's gay marriage referendum could not get any closer:

REJECT SAME-SEX MARRIAGE LAW
No 56659 50.62%
Yes 55267 49.38%

MSNBC Reverses Projection In New York Mayor's Race

Posted Nov 03, 2009 at 1:52 PM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

NBC has reversed its projection of Independent Michael Bloomberg as the winner of the Mayor's race in New York City over his Democratic Challenger, Bill Thompson. Stay tuned.

Gay Marriage Vote Close In Maine

Posted Nov 03, 2009 at 1:40 PM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

The pro-Gay marriage forces ahead in Maine, but the vote on the referendum grows still closer, with just 100 of 605 precincts reporting:

REJECT SAME-SEX MARRIAGE LAW
No 37801 51.30%
Yes 35892 48.70%

Gay Marriage Ahead, But Vote Grows Closer

Posted Nov 03, 2009 at 1:21 PM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

The pro-Gay marriage forces remain ahead in Maine, but the vote on the referendum grows closer, still with just 79 of 605 precincts reporting:

 

REJECT SAME-SEX MARRIAGE LAW
No 32610 52.58%
Yes 29413 47.42%

No Exit Polls In New York City

Posted Nov 03, 2009 at 1:15 PM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

For those of you waiting for a projection in New York City's mayoral race, a note of caution: be patient. There were no exit polls in New York City, so the race will be called the old fashioned way--with raw numbers.

Gay Marriage Ahead In Maine

Posted Nov 03, 2009 at 1:06 PM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

As of 9:00 PM, with 32 of 605 precincts reporting, the supporters of gay marriage are leading (no is PRO gay marriage:

 


No 14988 54.48%
Yes 12524 45.52%

Projection: Republicans Sweep All Statewide Contests In VA

Posted Nov 03, 2009 at 12:11 PM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

CNN projects that Republicans will sweep all three statewide races in Virginia: governor, lieutenant governor, and attorney general.

Independent Voters In New Jersey Breaking For Republican

Posted Nov 03, 2009 at 12:09 PM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

Exit polls in New Jersey suggest that independent voters are breaking for Republican Chris Christie by a wide, +20%, margin over incumbent Democratic Governor Jon Corzine. Once again, these voters are behaving very differently from last year, where New Jersey independents supported President Obama by a considerable margin.

UPDATE: Christie appears to be winning independent voters by 25%

Exit Polls In New Jersey Suggest A Tight Race

Posted Nov 03, 2009 at 12:04 PM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

It looks like a long night in New Jersey as Exit Polls suggests a very tight race.

AP Projection: Republican Bob McDonnell Wins VA Gubernatorial Race

Posted Nov 03, 2009 at 11:56 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

The Associated Press projects that Republican Bob McDonnell has won the Virginia gubernatorial election over his Democratic opponent Creigh Deeds.

VA Governor's Race: Young Voters Stayed Home

Posted Nov 03, 2009 at 11:13 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

According to exit polls, only 10% of young voters showed up in Virginia today, versus 20% in last year's election. Again, bad news for Democrat Deeds. Another issue: does this drop off--as well as the loss of independent voters--also suggest a weakening of the Obama coalition? 

Exit Polls Suggest Independents Breaking For Republican In VA

Posted Nov 03, 2009 at 11:09 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

Early exit poll suggests that independent voters in Virginia are breaking for Republican Bob McDonnell by a wide margin--60% to 39%. If this trend holds, it is very bad news for Democrat Creigh Deeds.

Economy Top Issue For New Jersey Voters

Posted Nov 03, 2009 at 10:30 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

According to CNN Exit Polls in New Jersey: "The economy was the most important issue on the minds of . . . voters Tuesday . . . Nearly a third of the voters heading to the polls in this off-year election pitting Democratic Gov. John Corzine against Republican Chris Christie, 31 percent, said the economy was the most important issue, while 26 percent said property taxes, 20 percent indicated corruption and 18 percent identified health care."

Virginia: "

CNN Exit Polls NJ & VA: Obama Not A Factor

Posted Nov 03, 2009 at 10:26 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

According to CNN's Exit Poll in New Jersey & Virginia:

New Jersey: "Six in 10 voters said Tuesday that President Obama had no effect on their vote in this off-year gubernatorial election, according to early CNN Exit Poll data. Obama visited New Jersey this week to campaign for embattled Gov. Jon Corzine, who is locked in a tough re-election contest with Republican Chris Christie. When asked if Obama had an effect on their vote, 60 percent responded he was not a factor, 20 percent said their vote was meant to express opposition to him, and 19 percent said it was to support him."

Virginia: "There's been plenty of talk by political pundits that Virginia's gubernatorial contest was a referendum on President Barack Obama, but voters don't agree . . . Fifty-five percent of Virgina voters polled say that Obama was not a factor in how they voted, with 24 percent suggesting that their vote was meant to express opposition to the president, and 18 percent indicating that their vote was meant to express support for Obama."

Bulletin: Turnout High In Maine

Posted Nov 03, 2009 at 5:51 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

According to Ben Smith at Politico, voter turnout is high in Maine, approaching 50%, which may bode well for supporters of gay marriage: "Maine Secretary of State Matt Dunlap told me just now that turnout there is far exceeding his projections -- news that would be good news for backers of same-sex marriage. "We're seeing heavy and very steady turnout," he said, attributing the surprise to the contested vote on a "people's veto" of a same-sex marriage law driving Mainers to the polls."

LIVE BLOG 7:00 PM EST TONIGHT Tuesday, 3 November

Posted Nov 02, 2009 at 3:44 PM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

PollTrack will be blogging live tonight, Election Night, tracking and interpreting results starting at 7:00 PM EST. So check in and stick with us for continuous coverage of the gubernatorial races in Virginia and, New Jersey,mayoral race in New York City, special election in NY-23, and the Maine "Gay Marriage" initiative and other races.

Maine Gay Marriage Vote: Close. But Final Average In Favor Of Gay Marriage

Posted Nov 02, 2009 at 10:55 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

PollTrack's poll average for the so-called "gay marriage" initiative in Maine shows the race very close.

 

For keeping the law that legalized gay marriage: 49.3%

Against keeping the law that legalized gay marriage: 46.6%

Undecided: 4.3%

 

Lead: FOR gay marriage--+2.7%

No New Results For NYC Mayoralty and NY-23

Posted Nov 02, 2009 at 9:57 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

PollTrack has received no new polling for the New York City mayoral race or the special election in New York's 23rd congressional district. As a result, this mornings averages now stand as final. Please refer below for these races.

NJ Governor 2009: Close, But PollTrack Final Average Still Shows GOP Lead

Posted Nov 02, 2009 at 9:54 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

PollTrack's FINAL average of polling in New Jersey for the 2009 gubernatorial race:

Jon Corzine (D, Incumbent): 41.8%

Chris Christie (R): 42.3%

Chris Daggett (I)L 10.5%

Lead: Republican Chris Christie--+0.5%

Check Back Late-Afternoon, Early-Evening For PollTrack's Final Poll Average In This Rac

VA Governor 2009: Final Average Shows Strong Republican Lead

Posted Nov 02, 2009 at 8:57 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

PollTrack's FINAL average of polling in Virginia for the 2009 gubernatorial race:

 Bob McDonnell (R): 55.0%

Creigh Deeds (D): 40.6%

Lead: Republican Bob McDonnell--+14.4%

NY-23: Final Poll Average Shows Conservative Hoffman Ahead Of Democrat Owens

Posted Nov 02, 2009 at 1:42 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

PollTrack's FINAL average of polling in New York's 23rd Congressional District for 2009 special election:

 

Bill Owens (D): 35.0%

Doug Hoffman (I-Conservative): 43.0%

Dede Scozzafava (R): 8.0%

 

Lead: Conservative Doug Hoffman--+8.0%

 

NJ Governor 2009: Republican Christie's Lead Inceases Yet Again

Posted Nov 02, 2009 at 1:38 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

PollTrack's average of polling in New Jersey for the 2009 gubernatorial race:

Jon Corzine (D, Incumbent): 41.1%

Chris Christie (R): 42.8%

Chris Daggett (I)L 11.5%

Lead: Republican Chris Christie--+1.7%

Check Back Late-Afternoon, Early-Evening For PollTrack's Final Poll Average In This Race

VA Governor 2009: Republican McDonnell Far Ahead

Posted Nov 02, 2009 at 1:32 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

PollTrack's average of polling in Virginia for the 2009 gubernatorial race:

 Bob McDonnell (R): 54.0%

Creigh Deeds (D): 40.6%

Lead: Republican Bob McDonnell--+13.4%


Check Back Late-Afternoon, Early-Evening for PollTrack's Final Poll Average in Virginia. 

NY Mayor 2009: Final Poll Average Shows Bloomberg Ahead By Comfortable Margin

Posted Nov 02, 2009 at 1:28 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

PollTrack's average of polling in New York City for the 2009 Mayoral race:

Michael Bloomberg (I, Incumbent): 52.0%

Bill Thompson (D): 39.3%

Lead: Independent Michael Bloomberg--+12.7%

 

Maine Gay Marriage Vote: Very Close

Posted Nov 02, 2009 at 1:21 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

PollTrack's poll average for the so-called "gay marriage" initiative in Maine shows the race very close.

 

For keeping the law that legalized gay marriage: 47.6%

Against keeping the law that legalized gay marriage: 48.6%

 

Lead: AGAINST gay marriage--+1.0%


Check Back Late-Afternoon, Early Evening For Final PollTrack Average

NJ Governor 2009: Christie Up Slightly, Still Razor Close

Posted Nov 01, 2009 at 2:44 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

PollTrack's average of polling in New Jersey for the 2009 gubernatorial race:

Jon Corzine (D, Incumbent): 41.6%

Chris Christie (R): 42.2%

Chris Daggett (I)L 10.6%

Lead: Republican Chris Christie--+0.6%

NY-23: Could The Democrat Still Win?

Posted Nov 01, 2009 at 2:37 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

With Republican Dede Scozzafava pulling out of the special election in New York's 23rd congressional district, many observers have jumped to the conclusion that most of her voters will jump to Conservative Party candidate (and recipient of many GOP endorsements over the past few weeks) Doug Hoffman. PollTrack is joining a number of commentators over the past 24 hours in saying: not so fast. In examining the cross tabs in the most recent Siena Institute poll of the district, one thing is clear: Scozzafava supporters are often as moderate--or even more so--than the candidate herself.

Among her supporters, president Obama enjoys considerable support, and Hoffman's favorable rating remains low. So where will these voters go this coming Tuesday: some with vote for Scozzafava anyway. Some will move over to Hoffman out of party loyalty (the national and local GOP have now endorsed him). And some will undoubtedly vote for Democrat Bill Owens. The outcome may well be a squeaker between the Democrat and Conservative Party candidates. PollTrack is trolling around for any polling in the district over the next 48 hours. So stay tuned.

Maine Gay Marriage Vote: A Virtual Tie

Posted Oct 30, 2009 at 10:56 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

PollTrack's poll average for the so-called "gay marriage" initiative in Maine shows the race a dead heat.

 

For keeping the law that legalized gay marriage: 48%

Against keeping the law that legalized gay marriage: 47.5%

 

Lead: FOR gay marriage--+0.5%

NY-23: Conservative Candidate Appears To Best Democratic + GOP Candidates

Posted Oct 30, 2009 at 6:29 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

PollTrack's average of polling in New York's 23rd Congressional District for 2009 special election:

 

Bill Owens (D): 29.6%

Doug Hoffman (I-Conservative): 32.3%

Dede Scozzafava (R): 18.3%

 

Lead: Conservative Doug Hoffman--+2.7%

NY Mayor: Bloomberg By A Wide Margin

Posted Oct 30, 2009 at 6:23 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

PollTrack's average of polling in New York City for the 2009 Mayoral race:

Michael Bloomberg (I, Incumbent): 53.0%

Bill Thompson (D): 36.5%

Lead: Independent Michael Bloomberg--+16.%


 

VA Governor 2009: Republican McDonnell Sailing To Victory

Posted Oct 30, 2009 at 6:18 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

PollTrack's average of polling in Virginia for the 2009 gubernatorial race:

 

Bob McDonnell (R): 54.6%

Creigh Deeds (D): 40.3%

Lead: Republican Bob McDonnell--+14.3%

NJ Governor 2009: A Dead Heat

Posted Oct 30, 2009 at 6:16 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

PollTrack's average of polling in New Jersey for the 2009 gubernatorial race:

Jon Corzine (D, Incumbent): 41.8%

Chris Christie (R): 42.0%

Chris Daggett (I)L 11.8%

Lead: Republican Chris Christie--+0.2%

NY-23: Who IS In The Leads In Traditionally Republican District?

Posted Oct 29, 2009 at 1:53 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

One recent poll in the special election in New York's 23rd Congressional District, suggests that the Democrat still leads in the traditionally Republican stronghold. According to the Daily Kos (in conjunction with Research 2000), Democrat Bill Owens leads the three-way contest with 35% of the vote, Republican Dede Scozzafava has 30% and Conservative Party nominee Doug Hoffman is at 23%. The dymamics of this race appear to be fairly obvious: with the moderate Republican and Conservative party candidate splitting the GOP vote, the Democrat squeaks through. Or are they, two polls sponsored by the GOP in the district suggests that the GOP candidate's relatively liberal views--on abortion and gay marriage, for example--have put her in the position of splitting the vote with moderate Democrat Owens. The result: both polls show Hoffman in the lead, their combined aggregate number by +4.5%. Stay tuned.

NY Mayor 2009: Bloomberg Leads By Wide Margin

Posted Oct 28, 2009 at 12:54 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

A newly released Quinnipiac poll reports that New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg has expanded his lead over NYC Democratic comptroller Bill Thompson (D) by +18% among likely voters--53% to 35%--with 10% still undecided. These numbers are consusten with other recent polls showing Bloomberg pulling away from his challenger.

VA Governor 2009: Democratic Deeds Campaign Appears To Collapse

Posted Oct 27, 2009 at 6:00 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

With a week to go until Election 2009, PollTrack's aggregate poll numbers suggest that the campaign of Democrat Creigh Deeds is collapsing in Virginia. Some polls now show Republican Bob McDonnell ahead by as much as +19%. Our average gives the GOP candidate an aggregate lead of +13.8%, 55.4% to 41.6%.

NJ Governor 2009: Republican Christie Appears to Retake Momentum

Posted Oct 27, 2009 at 3:17 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

With the race drawing down to a tie in recent weeks--and Democratic incumbent Jon Corzine showing some momentum in recemt days--New Jersey's upcoming gubernatorial race appears to be shifting back to Republican Christ Christie. PollTrack's polling average has the race with the GOP candidate leading, 41.2% to 39.7%, for an aggregate lead of +1.5% (up quite a bit from the 0.25% lead earlier in the week). More recent polls show Christie with an even bigger lead, on average 2.5%. In the end, it could all come down to turnout.

VA Governor 2009: PollTrack Average Has Republican Up by Wide Margin

Posted Oct 27, 2009 at 2:22 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

As of this morning--with one week to go--PollTrack's polling average in the race for Virginia Governor has Republican Bob McDonnell leading Democrat Creigh Deeds by a wide margin--54.3% t0 41.6%--and aggregate advantage of +12.7%.

NJ Governor 2009: A Squeaker?

Posted Oct 26, 2009 at 1:52 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

A good deal can change in politics in a month. PollTrack's polling average for New Jersey's upcoming gubernatorial race suggests an upset in the making. Throughout the year, Republican Chris Christie led incumbent Democratic Jon Corzine by a significant margin. Now, it looks like Corzine has the momentum and may squeak through on 3 November. Why? Mostly the continued strength of third-party candidate Chris Daggett, who now polls as much as 20% in some pols and appears to be taking away more votes from Corzine than Christie. Another factor: the relative success of Corzine's spate of negative and clearly effective TV ads against his Republican challenger. As of Sunday night, Christie leads Christie by the hair's breadth--39.2% to 39%--for a lead of just +0.25%. (Daggett now pulls on average, 16% of the vote)

NY Mayor 2009: SurveyUSA Reports BIG Bloomberg Lead

Posted Oct 23, 2009 at 2:49 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

SurveyUSA reports that Independent incumbent Mayor Michael Bloomberg of New York bests his Democratic challenger, City Comptroller Bob Thompson by a commanding +12%, 53% to 41%. Bloomberg's PollTrack average lead is +14%--52.5% to 38.5%.

VA Governor 2009: PollTrack Average Has Republican up by 13.5%

Posted Oct 22, 2009 at 2:44 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

PollTrack polling average for the upcoming Virginia gubernatorial race has Republican Bob McDonnell up by a whopping +13.5%--54% to 40.5%--over his Democratic challenger, Creigh Deeds.

Gay Marriage Referendum Tied In Maine

Posted Oct 21, 2009 at 3:08 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

According to a new Public Policy Polling survey, "public opinion on Question 1 in Maine, which would reject the state's law allowing same sex couples to marry, is knotted up two weeks before election day. 48% of voters in the state support it and 48% oppose it. With most voters' minds made up the election is not really about persuasion at this point but turnout. Even a small difference in the ability of supporters and opponents of the referendum to get their folks out to the polls could tip the scales with the issue this close. One determining factor could be the age distribution of the electorate. Senior citizens often dominate in low turnout elections and they're strongest in their support of rejecting the law with 54% planning to vote for Question 1 to 40% opposing it. Voters under 65 oppose the referendum by a 50-46 margin but they'll have to come out if they're going to combat the influence of the more conservative leaning older voters."

VA Governor 2009: Democratic Creigh Deeds Well Behind

Posted Oct 20, 2009 at 1:57 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

PollTrack's poll average in Virginia's upcoming gubernatorial race suggests that the GOP candidate remains in a solid position: Republican Bob McDonnell bests Democrat Creight Deeds by +10.5%--47.5% to 37.0%. A month ago, the race had tightened considerably; now it appears that Deeds cannot make up a deficit that places him 13% BELOW the 50% mark.

Next US Senator from MA: Democrat Martha Coakley?

Posted Oct 19, 2009 at 2:05 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

Who will replace the late Senator Ted Kennedy in Massachusetts in January special election? Right now it looks like  Attorney General Martha Coakley is the heavy favorite in the Democratic primary to be held in December. A Lake Research survey in the state conducted for Coakley's campaign shows their client with a commanding lead. In a four-way race, Coakley leads with 47%, followed by Michael Capuano at 12%, Stephen Pagliuca at 4% and Alan Khazei at 1%. These results come very close to an independent poll released by Suffolk University last month.

NY-23: Is The GOP Candidate Collapsing?

Posted Oct 16, 2009 at 1:44 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

The Siena College Research Institute reports that the GOP candidate in the upcoming special election in New York's staunchly Republican 13th district may be in trouble: "In the last two weeks, Democrat Bill Owens has turned a seven-point deficit into a four-point lead over Republican Assembly Member Dede Scozzafava. Owens has the support of 33 percent of likely voters in the 23rd Congressional District, followed by Scozzafava at 29 percent and Conservative candidate Doug Hoffman at 23 percent, up seven points in the last two weeks . . . Owens leads with Democrats and in the eastern portion of the district. Scozzafava leads with Republicans and in the western portion of the district. Hoffman leads with independent voters and in the southern portion of the district. About two-thirds of voters have seen or heard commercials for Scozzafava and Owens, helping Owens and hurting Scozzafava."

The eminent political analyst Charlie Cook provides this reading of the race on his website: "It's never a good sign when the blame game commences before the election even takes place. But that's exactly what's happening in GOP ranks three weeks before voters go to to the polls in the NY-23 special election, at a time when the party's House prospects are booming just about everywhere else. The twist? The 'conservative Republican' spoiler is actually stealing more votes from independents than Republicans."

NY Mayor 2009: SurveyUSA Reports BIG Bloomberg Lead

Posted Oct 15, 2009 at 1:41 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

The latest SurveyUSA poll of New York City voters reports a huge lead for incumbent Mayor Mike Bloomberg: "Bloomberg is today at or above 50% in all five boroughs, among young and old voters, among the more educated and less educated, among the more affluent and less affluent, among whites and Hispanics, and among Democrats and Republicans." The numbers for the Mayor are impressive: the poll finds independent candidate Mike Bloomberg crushing his Democratic challenger Bill Thompson, 55% to 38%--a whopping +17% lead.

NJ Governor 2009: Corzine Even With Christie

Posted Oct 14, 2009 at 1:49 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

After trailing for months, Democratic Gov. Jon Corzine has now pulled within one point of Republican challenger Chris Christie, 40% to 39%, with independent candidate Chris Daggett drawing 13% support, according to a new Public Policy Polling survey in New Jersey: "It was thought that Corzine's only chance at winning was to make voters dislike Christie even more than him, but he actually has seen a gain in his favorability over the last month. While a majority of voters still don't care for him the 37/55 spread is a whole lot better than the 32/60 of a month ago." A new Quinnipiac poll in New Jersey similarly finds Christie with a one point lead, 41% to 40%, with independent Christopher Daggett at 14%. PollTrack believes that the race will come down to Daggett's supporters. If they defect, Christie may well be the beneficiary. If they hold firm, the incumbent could squeak through. Stay tuned, especially to Daggett's numbers as we approach Election Day.

Gay Marriage Ban in 2009 Maine Vote: Nate Silver Examines The Odds?

Posted Oct 13, 2009 at 1:39 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

Nate Silver over at FiveThirtyEight.com has an interesting statistical analysis of the upcoming vote in Maine on a proposed gay marriage ban, design to turn back the clock in a state where gay marriage was recently legalized: "Back in April, I conducted an analysis of the prospects of a gay marriage ban becoming law in each of the 50 states. The analysis found that support for gay marriage bans was strongly tied to two factors: the degree of religiosity in a state, as measured by 2008 Gallup tracking surveys, and the year that the initiative was up for vote -- marriage bans have lost support at a rate of about 2 percent per year, ceteris paribus. That analysis concluded that a Maine is one of 11 states that would probably vote to reject a ban on gay marriage if a referendum were held this year. Mainers, in fact, will soon have a chance to test this proposition. In November, they will go to the polls to vote on Question 1; a yes vote would overturn a law passed earlier this year by the state's legislature that permits gays and lesbians to get married in the state." To read Silver's complete analysis, click here.

VA Governor 2009: Republican Maintains Solid Lead

Posted Oct 12, 2009 at 1:49 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

Commensurate with all other rect polling in Virginia's 2009 gubernatorial race, Republican Bob McDonnell continues to hold a solid lead over his Democratic opponent, according to a new Mason-Dixon poll: McDonnell leads Creigh Deeds, 48% to 40% with 12 % undecided. "The poll suggests that McDonnell is heading into the final three weeks of the race largely unscathed from Deeds' continuing focus on McDonnell's controversial 1989 law-school thesis. Further, the poll depicts an electorate, perhaps because of continuing economic anxiety and contentious policy debates in Washington and Richmond, cooling to the dominant Democratic establishment."

NJ Democrat Gov. Another Poll Shows Incumbent Democrat Corzine Ahead

Posted Oct 09, 2009 at 2:36 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

Yet another poll, this one a Democracy Corps poll supported by the Democratic party, shows incumbent Jon Corzine ahead in the upcoming race for New Jersey Governor: "Corzine has now moved slightly ahead of Republican Chris Christie, after pulling into a statistical dead heat two weeks ago. Corzine now leads by 3 points, garnering 41 percent of the vote to Christie’s 38 percent and independent Chris Daggett’s 14 percent. Importantly, Corzine has now consolidated the vote among his base, crossing the 80 percent threshold among Democrats and winning more Democrats than Christie does Republicans for the first time. Christie’s standing has declined markedly in the last two weeks, with 42 percent now rating the Republican unfavorably versus just 30 percent who rate him favorably. This net -12 point favorability rating is a 10-point decline from two weeks ago. Corzine is rated favorably by 37 percent of voters and unfavorably by 46 percent, for a net favorability rating of -9 points."

If these results were to be confirmed by independent pollsters, this would be big news, indeed. But so far, Christie still seems to hold onto a very slim lead. A SurveyUSA poll released last night reported that the Republican candidate remains barely ahead of Corzine, 43% to 40%, within the margin of sampling error. Independent Chris Daggett gets 14%.

NYC Mayor 2009: Incumbent Faces Strong Challenger

Posted Oct 08, 2009 at 3:01 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

With less than a month to go in New York City's race for Mayor, popular incumbent Mike Bloomberg (I) faces a surprisingly strong challenge from his Democrat opponent, City Comptroller Bill Thompson according to a new SurveyUSA survey: "It's Bloomberg 51%, Thompson 43%. Bloomberg has outspent Thompson 16:1. Bloomberg, first elected in 2001, term-limited until the law was changed to permit him to seek a 3rd term, leads among older voters, trails among younger voters. The Democratic challenger leads in Brooklyn and The Bronx. The billionaire incumbent, who is running on the Republican and Independence Party lines, leads in Manhattan, Queens and Staten Island. Thompson leads among blacks, Bloomberg leads among whites, Hispanics and Asians. Democrats split. Republicans and Independents back Bloomberg."

With very high approval ratings, as high as 70% in recent months, Bloomberg's diminished showing relative to his popularity stems from two problems: voter resentment with his successful attempt to suspend voter approved term-limits in order to run for a third term and the increasing clout of the Working Families Party, a union-supported independent party that usually backs Democrats in New York City races and has a proven ability to increase turnout for its candidates in cycles where overall turnout is moderate to low.

NJ Governor 2009: Poll Reports Corzine Is Gaining Ground

Posted Oct 07, 2009 at 1:38 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

Is incumbent Democratic Governor Jon Corzine closing the gap in New Jersey after a year of being consistently behind in the polls? A new Fairleigh Dickinson-PublicMind Poll would appear to suggest a possible turn around for the embattled Democrat. The survey finds that Corzine now edges ahead of his Republican challenger, Chris Christie, 44% to 43%, within the poll's margin of error. The poll is somewhat irregular in that it does not ask respondents specifically about their support of the independent candidates in the race. Thus, the poll, reports: "Another 4% volunteer they will vote for independent Chris Daggett and 5% say they are undecided. When Daggett's name is read in an interview along with Corzine's and Christie's name, Corzine leads Christie 38% to 37% and Daggett gets 17% of the vote."

A new Rasmussen survey still show's Christie ahead but by a narrower margin. The poll reports that Corzine has pulled to within three percentage points of Christie after trailing his GOP challenger for months: Christie is at 47%; Corzine 44% and Daggett at 6%. 3% remain undecided. PollTrack needs more information in order to determine if the overall dynamics of the race have actually changed. With more polling coming later in the week, will a new trend for Democratic victory emerge? Stay tuned.  

VA Governor 2009: Democratic Brand Suffering As Republican Maintains Large Lead

Posted Oct 06, 2009 at 2:56 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

While the gap has narrowed slightly, SurveyUSA reports that Republican Bob McDonnell maintains a large lead over Democrat Creigh Deeds--a lead which places him well over the all-important 50% mark: "In the election for Virginia Governor . . . one month until votes are counted, Republican Bob McDonnell defeats Democrat Creigh Deeds, 54% to 43%. Compared to an identical SurveyUSA poll one week ago, Deeds has gained ground among women, among voters age 50 to 64, and in Southeast VA. In 4 identical SurveyUSA tracking polls conducted for WJLA-TV in Washington DC and WDBJ-TV in Roanoke, McDonnell has polled at 55%, 54%, 55%, 54%. Deeds has polled at 40%, 42%, 41%, 43%."

Even more troubling for the Democrats, Republicans also maintain considerable leads (by similar margins) in two other statewide races: In the contest for Lieutenant Governor, incumbent Republican Bill Bolling leads Democrat Jody Wagner, former Treasurer of VA and VA Secretary of Finance, 57% to 40%. In the Attorney general contest, Republican state senator Ken Cuccinelli bests Democrat state representative Steve Shannon 53% to 43%.

NJ Governor 2009: Can Democrat Corzine Win?

Posted Oct 05, 2009 at 2:05 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

Is Democrat Jon Corzine really closing the gap in his upcoming gubernatorial race in New Jersey against GOP challenger Chris Christie? Can he actually come out ahead on Election Day. The answer, PollTrack believes, is possibly, but that thus far Corzine remains stuck in the same position he's been in since the start of his campaign in January 2009 on: at or below the 40% mark, with little or no movement upward. Even with the recent narrowing of the gap recorded in some surveys, it been a slight decline in Christie's support and not a significant uptick in support for Corzine that accounts for most of the decrease between the two candidates.

In a telling analysis of the race, veteran political analyst Stuart Rothenberg observes of the recent narrowing of the polls: "Corzine's chances of winning re-election now are no better than they were a month ago. The governor continues to be stuck between 38 percent and 42 percent in the ballot test, where he has been for many months, and the fundamentals of the race continue to favor the Republican challenger. Corzine was at 39 percent among likely voters in the newest Quinnipiac survey, not much different from his 37 percent showing at the end of August, his 40 percent showing in early August or his 38 percent showing in mid-July. The most recent Quinnipiac poll showed Christie leading Corzine by 4 points because the Republican's vote has slipped from 46 percent or 47 percent in other Quinnipiac surveys to 43 percent. In turn, Independent candidate Chris Daggett's number in the ballot test has risen to 12 percent in the most recent Quinnipiac poll, up from the 7 percent to 9 percent he had been drawing in other recent Quinnipiac surveys. There is no statistically significant movement from late August to late September among likely independent voters."

PollTrack will continue to cover the race very closely in the coming weeks, in our countdown to Election 2009.

NJ Governor 2009: Incumbent Democrat Corzine Gains Ground

Posted Oct 02, 2009 at 1:37 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

It looks like the race for Governor of New Jersey, that only a month ago appeared to be an easy victory for Republican challenger Chris Christie, is going down to the wire: a new Quinnipiac poll reports that incumbent Democratic Gov. Jon Corzine has cut challenger Chris Christie's (R) lead in half and now trails by just four points, 43% to 39%, among likely voters. Independent candidate Christopher Daggett gets 12% with 6% undecided. A forthcoming DailyKos/Research 2000 poll shows the race tightening, as well, with Christie now leading by just four points, 46% to 42% with independent Chris Daggett getting 7% support.

Another just released poll reports that Corzine is closing in fast and dramatically: The latest Monmouth University/ Gannett New Jersey Poll finds the "Democrat trailing the Republican by just 3 percentage points among likely voters, down from an 8 point disadvantage last month and 14 points in August. The reasons for this movement include a more energized Democratic base and shifting preferences of independent women. Currently, Chris Christie leads Jon Corzine by 43% to 40% among likely voters, with independent Chris Daggett at 8%. When the vote preferences of all registered voters are taken into account, the race is tied with Corzine at 40% and Christie at 40%. Partisan support has remained relatively stable over the past month. Corzine has a 75% to 8% advantage among likely Democratic voters while Christie enjoys an 86% to 7% lead among likely Republicans and a 49% to 28% edge among likely independents. However, the poll indicates that more Democrats have become interested in the outcome of this campaign and thus are now more likely to vote than they were just a month ago"

The BIG question for PollTrack: how well will Daggett do in the end, a candidate who draws far more votes from Corzine than Christie. If, as history often suggests, Democrats abandon Daggett and come home to the party, the race could easily draw down to a tie, or even a slight lead for Corzine.

VA Governor 2009: Is Democratic Creigh Deeds In Trouble?

Posted Oct 01, 2009 at 2:29 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

According to one new poll by SurveyUSA, one of the most accurate pollsters in the 2008 election cycle, Democrat Creigh Deeds is in serious trouble in his quest to defeat Republican Bob McDonnell in November's race for Virginia governor. Just weeks ago, it appeared the race was tightening. Another recent survey by Public Policy Polling suggested that the Democrat had narrowed his deficit to 4%. Yet, as of yesterday. SurveyUSA gives McDonnell a whopping +14% lead over Creigh Deeds, 55% to 41%, in the race for governor. A just released Rasmussen poll splits the difference, so to speak, finding a +9% lead for McDonnell, 51% to 42%. Still, the poll indicates that the Republican's position has improved over the past few weeks, yet another red flag for Democrat Deeds.

NY Mayor: Bloomberg Well Ahead

Posted Sep 29, 2009 at 2:18 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

A recently released Quinnipiac poll of New York City voters reports that Democrat William Thompson achieved no bounce after his primary victory and trails Mayor Michael Bloomberg by 16 points, 52% to 36%. This gives Bloomber a lead of +16%, a whopping margin for an election that is only five weeks away.

VA Governor 2009: Race Continues to Tighten

Posted Sep 28, 2009 at 1:30 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

A new Insider Advantage survey in Virginia's gubernatorial upcoming race shows that things are continuing to tighten: Republican Bob McDonnell bests Democrat Creight Deeds by +4%--48% to 44%.

NY Mayor: Bloomberg Still Comfortably Ahead

Posted Sep 24, 2009 at 1:24 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

In New york City's upcoming mayoralty race, independent incumbent Michael Bloomberg continues to hold a significant lead over his Democratic challenger, Bill Thompson, according to a new Marist Institute poll: "Early numbers show the incumbent, [Bloomberg], with 50% of registered voters compared with 39% for his Democratic challenger, New York City Comptroller Bill Thompson.  10% say they are unsure.  In a [July, a Marist survey], 48% reported they backed Bloomberg, 35% supported Thompson, and 17% were unsure. When looking at those all-important likely voters including those who are undecided yet leaning toward a candidate, Bloomberg has 52% to Thompson’s 43%." Significantly, Bloomberg is at or above the crucial 50% mark. One major reason for Thompson' troubles: lukewarm Democratic support, with 43% of party members supporting Bloomberg and 46% behind Thompson.

NJ Governor 2009: Corzine Narrows The Gap (Slightly)

Posted Sep 22, 2009 at 1:03 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

As of Monday evening, it appears that incumbent Democratic Governor Jon Corzine has narrowed the gap slightly with his Republican challenger, Chris Christie, in the upcoming race in New Jersey. Christie now leads by +7%--44.5% to 37.5%, with independent candidate Chris Daggett at 8.5%--a modest improvement from a month ago. The good news for Corzine: his standing has improved and Daggett, whose momentum shows signs of slowing down, seems to be taking more votes away from the Democrat than the Republican. The bad news for Corzine: he is well below the 40% mark, a very dismal place for an incumbent to find himself.

VA Governor 2009: Race Is Tightening

Posted Sep 21, 2009 at 1:32 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

As of Sunday evening, the PollTrack polling average in this year's gubernatorial race in Virginia suggests that Democrat Creigh Deeds has made modest inroads against his GOP challenger, Bob McDonnell. The Republican now leads by +4.5%--47.8% to 43.3%--a more than fifty percent drop in support for McDonnell from a month ago. A just released Washington Post poll has even better news for the Democrat: "Dramatic shifts among independent female voters and Northern Virginians over the past month have propelled" Deeds to within four points of Bob McDonnell (R) in the race for Virginia governor, 51% to 47%.Stay tuned.

AG Coakley Way Ahead In Race To Succeed Kennedy In Mass US Senate

Posted Sep 18, 2009 at 1:19 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

A new Suffolk University poll in Massachusetts give Democratic Attorney General Martha Coakley a commanding lead for January's primary to replace Senator Edward Kennedy: "Voters were asked to choose from among potential Democratic Primary candidates, some of whom have since withdrawn from the fray. They chose Coakley (47 percent), Capuano (9 percent), U.S. Rep. Stephen Lynch (6 percent) and City Year founder Alan Khazei (3 percent). Thirty-three percent were undecided. Voters who chose Lynch were surveyed again after he dropped out of the race on Tuesday." Even in this four person race, PollTrack observes, Coakley is close to the all important 50% mark, an impressive showing.

NJ Governor 2009: Corzine Inches Slightly Closer to Republican Chris Christie

Posted Sep 15, 2009 at 1:06 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

As of Sunday night, PollTrack's aggregate of polls in New Jersey's upcoming race for Governor suggests that incumbent Democrat Jon Corzine is doing slightly better against his Republican challenger Chris Christie. Christie leads Corzine, 46.6% to 39.0%, an aggregate lead of +7.6%, considerably down from his +10% lead of a month ago. Still, with Corzine way below 50% (he doesn't even graze the 40% mark), his battle remains uphill, to say the least.

VA Governor 2009: Democratic Creigh Deeds In Serious Trouble

Posted Sep 14, 2009 at 1:41 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

With PollTrack's aggregate numbers in Virginia's upcoming gubernatorial race indicating a substantial Republican advantage--Bob McDonnell now leads Democratic Creigh Deeds, 51.3% to 42%--the Democrats path has grown narrower. With six week to go, the GOP candidate is now well over the KEY 50%, with an aggregate lead of +9.3%. Not an insurmountable lead, but daunting nevertheless.

An individual poll from one of the most accurate pollsters in the 2008 Election Cycle--SurveyUSA--suggests an even more dire situation for Deeds and for Democrats in general in the state: "In statewide elections in Virginia today, two months until votes are counted, Republicans sweep, taking the statehouse away from the Democrats and holding the Lieutenant Governor and Attorney General offices . . . For Governor, McDonnell appears undamaged and today defeats Deeds. Compared to an identical SurveyUSA poll released five weeks ago, the race has tightened slightly, not dramatically. There is movement to Deeds in the Washington DC suburbs, where a 15-point McDonnell lead has evaporated, but there is no GOP erosion in the rest of the state. There is softening in McDonnell's support among voters age 50+, but that is offset by gains for McDonnell among voters age 35 to 49. Of those who voted for Barack Obama in 2008 and who are judged by SurveyUSA to be likely to vote in November 2009, 13% cross-over for McDonnell, twice the number of McCain voters who cross-over for Deeds." McDonnell holds a +12% lead in the survey. 

NJ Governor 2009: Corzine Improving His Standing

Posted Sep 11, 2009 at 1:50 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

Two new polls suggest slightly contrary views of this year's gubernatorial race in New Jersey. One, from Democracy Corps (D) poll, reports that Republican challenger Chris Christie holds a scant three-point lead on Democratic Gov. Jon Corzine, 41% to 38%, with independent Chris Daggett receiving 10% of the vote. The poll also finds that Corzine's standing has improved over the past month, with his favorable rating now at 36% from %st month (still a somber number for an incumbent seeking reeelection). Yet, an new Rasmussen Reports poll shows Christie with a healthier eight point lead--46% to 38%.

Massachusetts US Senate: Attornery Genral Martha Coakley Leads

Posted Sep 10, 2009 at 12:25 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

A new survey by Rasmussen finds a clear leader in the January 2010 race to replace Ted Kennedy for Massachusetts US Senator: "State Attorney General Martha Coakley is the early leader in the Democratic race to fill the U.S. Senate seat vacated by the death of longtime Massachusetts Senator Edward M. “Ted” Kennedy . . . Coakley, the only officially declared candidate for the post, [pulls in] 38% of the vote. But one-in-four primary voters (25%) are undecided. Next is Stephen Lynch, a U.S. congressman from South Boston, with 11% support, followed closed by Rep. Ed Markey, the state’s senior member of the U.S. Huse of Representatives, with 10%. 7% favor another congressman, Michael Capuano of Somerville, while just 3% support Rep. John Tierney, the U.S. congressman from Salem. Five percent (5%) prefer some other candidate."

NJ Governor 2009: Corzine Continues to Trial Republican Chris Christie

Posted Sep 09, 2009 at 1:39 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

PollTrack's poll average for the gubernatorial race in New Jersey suggests that Democratic incumbent Jon Corzine still has his work cut out for him, though the race has grown considerably closer and his opponent Chris Christie does not come close to the 50% mark. As of Sunday night, Republican Christie leads Corzine 47% to 39.5% for an aggregate lead of +7.5%.

VA Governor 2009: Republican McDonnell Maintains Healthy Lead

Posted Sep 08, 2009 at 1:25 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

PollTrack's polling average for the gubernatorial race in Virginia, now just two months away, suggests that Republican Bob McDonnell remains in a very strong position. As of Sunday evening, McDonnell leads his Democratic challenger R. Creigh Deeds 51.3% to 42%,for a solid lead of +9.3 points. Significantly, McDonnell has remained at or above the all-important 50% mark for months.

50% of South Carolina Voters Want Sanford To Go

Posted Sep 07, 2009 at 1:23 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

As the specter of impeachment proceedings rises, exactly one half of South Carolina voters want Governor Mark Sanford, embattled in a sex scandal, to go. 50% responding to the survey said they were for Sanford's resignation; 37% believed he should remain in office; and 14% had no opinion.

VA Governor 2009: Race Tightening?

Posted Sep 04, 2009 at 1:50 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

According to one survey, the race for Virginia Governor has tightened up considerably over the past month, with Republican Bob McDonnell "now leading Creigh Deeds 49% to 42%. A PPP survey released in early August had the contest at 51% to 37%. The main reason for the narrowing is increased interest in the election among Democratic voters. While we were looking at an electorate for this fall that supported John McCain by an 11 point margin a month ago, that’s now narrowed to 4 points as more Obama supporters express their intention to vote in the off year election. The key to this race continues to be the significant imbalance among independent voters. They support McDonnell by a margin of 60% to 29%. That’s been a trend in our polls, as the Republican held leads of 19 and 21 points with those voters in our July and August surveys. Attacks on McDonnell do appear to be having some effect: his favorability has seen a slight decline from 54/26 a month ago to now 53/31. Deeds’ numbers are now 47/35, relatively similar to 43/32 on the previous survey." Yet, another, even more recent poll by Rasmussen, indicates that little has changed, with McDonnell's lead at a solid +9%--51% to 42%.

NJ Governor 2009: Quinnipiac Says Corzine Has Not Narrowed The Gap

Posted Sep 02, 2009 at 1:34 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

A new poll by Quinnipiac University suggests that Democratic incumbent Governor Jon Corzine has NOT narrowed the gap with his Republican challenger in New Jersey: "Corzine is losing the battle of the attack ads in his campaign for reelection and now trails Republican challenger Christopher Christie 47% to 37% among likely voters, with 9% for independent candidate Christopher Daggett . . . . This compares to a 46% to 40% Christie lead, with 7% for Daggett, in an August 11 survey . . . Corzine leads 74% to 15% among Democratic likely voters, with 7% for Daggett. Christie leads 86% to 8% among Republicans, with 4% for Daggett, and 46% to 30% among independent voters, with 16% for Daggett."

MA US Senate: Special Election For Kennedy's Seat Set For January 19, 2010

Posted Sep 01, 2009 at 1:42 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

If Massachusetts sticks to the succession law as now written, the special election for Ted Kennedy's US Senate seat would be held in January: Massachusetts Governor Deval Patrick has slated January 19, 2010 as the date voters will choose a successor to Senator Edward M. Kennedy. According to the Boston Globe,"State law requires the governor to set the process for a special election in motion “immediately’’ upon a Senate vacancy. [The Massachusetts Secretary of State] said he calculated the date after meeting with House Speaker Robert A. DeLeo, Senate President Therese Murray, and top Patrick aides. Under the schedule set by state law, a Jan. 19 election would require a Dec. 8 primary" PollTrack will have full coverage of the race once it's underway.

2009 Election Update: New Jersey Getting Tighter

Posted Aug 31, 2009 at 1:00 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

The race for Governor in New Jersey has grown much closer in recent days according to PollTrack's polling average in the state. For months, Republican challenger Chris Christie has been leading incumbent Democratic Governor Jon Corzine by ten points or more. Now Christie's lead has been cut in half--48% to 42.5%, for an aggregate lead of +5.5%. One just released survey, by Democracy Corps, reports an even closer race, with Christie leading Corzine by just two points, 43%-41%, compared with the Republican's five-point lead two weeks ago.

New York 2009: Bloomberg Maintains Comfortable Lead in Mayor's Race

Posted Aug 26, 2009 at 1:48 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

According to a new Quinnipiac poll, incumbent New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg [I] leads his likely Democratic challenger, Comptroller William Thompson [D], 50% to 35%. Compared to a 47% to 37% lead last month, Bloomberg has significantly expanded his advantage over Thompson. Among Republicans, Bloomberg leads 76% to 13%; he leads 54% to 28% among independents; while Democrats split 44% to 44%. The latter number, PollTrack believes, bodes very poorly for Thompson, who cannot win without significant support from fellow Democrats.

New Jersey Governor 2009: Corzine Does Slighlty Better Against Christie

Posted Aug 20, 2009 at 1:36 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

According to Democratic sponsored poll, incumbent Governor Jon Corzine has improved his standing against Republican challenger Chris Christie in New Jersey's upcoming governor's race. While PollTrack's average has Christie leading by about +11%--49.3% to 38.0%, a new GQR survey shows the race much closer, with the Republican leading, 43% to 37%.

WASHINGTON POST Poll: Republican Has Clear Lead in 2009 VA Governor's Race

Posted Aug 17, 2009 at 2:03 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

A new Washington Post poll suggests that the Republican candidate for Governor in Virginia, Bob McDonnell has a clear lead over his Democratic opponent, R. Creigh Deeds: "McDonnell is favored over Deeds among all registered voters, 47 to 40 percent, and is up by an even steeper margin, 54 to 39 percent, among those who say they are certain to vote in November. In vote-rich Northern Virginia, where President Obama and other successful Democrats have won large majorities, the two run about even, 45 percent for Deeds to 42 percent for McDonnell among all registered voters. Even in the innermost Washington suburbs -- which the Democrat from rural Bath County won handily in his party's primary -- the candidates are running about even. McDonnell, who lives outside Richmond, leads by nine points in the rest of the state. McDonnell's advantage in a race being watched nationally as an early electoral test for Obama serves as a warning sign for Democrats, who are eager to hold on to the governor's mansion in what has become a crucial swing state."

2009 Election Update: Virginia--Republican Expands Lead

Posted Aug 13, 2009 at 2:23 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

According to a new Rasmussen survey, Republican Bob McDonnell has expanded his lead over Democrat Creigh Deeds in Virginia's Gubernatorial race: "Republican candidate Robert F. McDonnell has opened a nine-point lead over Democrat R. Creigh Deeds in the race for governor in Virginia. {The latest] survey of Virginia voters finds McDonnell leading Deeds 47% to 38%. Three percent (3%) prefer some other candidate, and 12% are undecided. These figures reflect an improvement for McDonnell. A month ago, the GOP hopeful led by just three percentage points. Since then, he has gained three percentage points of support while Deeds has lost three percentage points.

2009 Election Update: New Jersey

Posted Aug 12, 2009 at 1:23 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

Overall, things continue to look bleak for incumbent Democratic Governor Jon Corzine in his race against Republican challenger Chris Christie. The latest PollTrack average in the state shows the GOP candidate with a whopping +12.1% lead: 50.3% to 38.2%. Even more daunting for Corzine: Christie has jumped over the all-important 50% threshold. (Still, the latest Quinnipiac Poll suggests a slight uptick for Cprzine; it has Christie leading by +9%, 51% to 42%.)

2009 Election Update: Virginia

Posted Aug 10, 2009 at 3:22 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

While Democratic Creigh deeds has slightly improved his standing in the Virginia's 2009 Governor's race against Republic Bob McDonnell according to a new poll, the underlying numbers suggests that Deeds is still in trouble. While the DailyKos/ Research 2000 poll finds Bob McDonnell (R) leading Creigh Deeds (D), 51% to 43%, the Republic is up over the all-important 50% mark and the poll's internal breakdown suggests this might not change soon: "People sitting on the sidelines as 'undecided' back in mid-June, post-primary, are now falling behind McDonnell. And the gains come almost entirely from independents -- they leaned McDonnell 47% to 44% back in June, but now break heavily for the Republican 55% to 40%. McDonnell has even managed to peal away a few points of Democratic support, growing from 13% to 17%. Deeds, for his part, garners a scant 6% of Republican support."

2009 Election Update: New Jersey

Posted Aug 07, 2009 at 1:18 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

It looks like Democrat Jon Corzine remains in the danger zone for an incumbent Governor. A new DailyKos/Research 2000 poll in New Jersey reports that Republican Chris Christie leads Corzine by +8%--48% to 40%. The survey reports that there is "surprising little movement in the last several months. Corzine is wallowing in the panic zone for an incumbent, and Christie is hovering around the 50% mark. This poll is actually the most optimistic for Corzine from the most recent batch." Despite Corzine's very slightly improved standing in this poll, a new Rasmussen Reports survey finds Christie leading by 13 points, 50% to 37%. With Christie hovering at the 50% mark and Corzine stuck in the high-30s, it may be very difficult for the Democrat to recover in time for the 2009 election, now less than three months away.

2009 Election Update: New York

Posted Aug 06, 2009 at 2:10 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

If pollsters are any guide, the 2009 race for Mayor of New York remains a bit under the radar compared to Gubernatorial races in New Jersey and Virginia. With only one poll released since June--a Quinnipiac survey issued last week--it's very difficult for PollTrack to provide credible analysis of the state of the race. As reported earlier, incumbent Independent Mayor Mike Bloomberg registered a lead as high as +18% (last May). According to the most recent poll, it's down to +10%, but PollTrack cautions that a single poll is a much less accurate gauge than a full-dress poll average.

2009 Election Update: Virginia

Posted Aug 05, 2009 at 1:15 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

Bob McDonnell, the Republican candidate for Governor in Virginia has expanded his lead over Democrat Creigh deeds, according to a new Public Policy Polling survey. The numbers may say more about the enthusiasm of GOP vs Democratic voters as well as the declining approval rating of President Obama in the state: "In a result probably owing more to the shift against Democrats in the national political climate than anything going on in Virginia, Bob McDonnell now leads Creigh Deeds 51-37 in the race to become the next Governor of Virginia."

PPP continues: "It’s not that voters are changing sides from last fall- the 5% of John McCain’s voters planning to vote for Deeds is actually equal to the 5% of Barack Obama’s voters planning to vote for McDonnell. But Republicans, on a losing streak in Virginia, appear to be more motivated about heading to the polls at this point three months before the election . . . McDonnell has a 52-33 lead among independents and has locked up 94% of the
Republican vote while Deeds is at 80% with Democrats. There is some good news for Deeds in the poll, as he leads 64-3 among African Americans. The 33% of undecided voters in that group will likely move toward Deeds as the election approaches, tightening up the race. 'As Barack Obama’s approval rating in Virginia declines we’re finding that Bob McDonnell is the beneficiary,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. 'That said, Creigh Deeds was 16 points back five weeks before the primary and charged back to win so it’s way too early to count him out.'"

2009 Election Update: New Jersey

Posted Aug 04, 2009 at 1:54 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

In the state of New Jersey, incumbent Governor Jon Corzine's reelection numbers can be described in a single word: dismal. His opponent, for state proescutor, Republican Chris Christie not only maintins a significant lead, but has jumped over the all-important 50% mark. The race is as follows, according to PollTrack's polling average: 51.5% to 37%, giving the Republican a whopping lead of +14.5%.

2009 Election Update: Virginia

Posted Aug 03, 2009 at 1:33 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

With more recent polls indicating a jump in support for the Republican candidate for Governor in Virginia, the 2009 race is starting to appear difficult for the Democrats. As of Sunday evening, the aggregate polling average in the states puts Republican Bob McDonnell at 48.3% and Democrat Creigh Deeds at 42%. Furthermore, McDonnell is inching perilously close to the 50% mark. The Republican advantage in the state has almost doubled from a week ago and now stands at +6.3%.

2009 Election Update: New Jersey--Democrat Corzine Sinks Lower

Posted Jul 31, 2009 at 1:34 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

Incumbent Democratic Governor Jon Corzine has fallen even further behind in his 2009 race for reelection. With a little more than three months to go, Public Policy Polling reports: The pollster's "monthly look at the race for Governor of New Jersey finds Republican Chris Christie leading incumbent Democrat Jon Corzine 50% to 36%. That 14 point lead is up from 10 at the end of June. Christie has a 54-26 lead among independents, and holds Corzine to just 64% of the Democratic vote, while receiving 86% from within his own party. Attack ads running against each candidate right now don’t seem to be having much of an impact on how voters view either of them. 42% have a favorable opinion of Chris Christie with 32% seeing him negatively. That’s virtually unchanged from a month ago when the spread was 43/33.Corzine’s spread is 33/56, also pretty similar to his previous 36/56 number."

VA Governor 2009: Republican McDonnell Now Way Ahead

Posted Jul 30, 2009 at 1:53 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

According to the latest poll by SurveyUSA--one of the most accurate pollsters in the 2008 cycle--Democrat Creigh Deeds has fallen significantly behind in Virginia's 2009 Governor's race: "Republican Bob McDonnell today defeats Democrat Creigh Deeds 55% to 40%. McDonnell, former Attorney General of Virginia, leads by 25 points among men, by 5 points among women. Deeds, a state senator who ran against McDonnell in the tightly-fought 2005 race for Attorney General, leads 6:1 among African Americans, 8:1 among Democrats, and 13:1 among liberals. Among moderates, Deeds is ahead by 8 points. McDonnell carries independents 2:1, and is above 50% in all regions of the state. Gun owners vote 2:1 McDonnell. Those without guns vote 5:4 Deeds. 14% of those who say they voted for Barack Obama in the 2008 Presidential election say they will vote for Republican McDonnell in the gubernatorial contest; 9% of John McCain voters say they will cross over and vote for Democrat Deeds." These numbers siggest that what had been a relatively close race may in face be widening for the Republican.

2009 Election Update: New York

Posted Jul 29, 2009 at 2:06 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

In New York's race for Mayor, it looks like incumbent Independent Michael Bloomberg remains ahead, but by a far smaller margin. While polling is so sparse that PollTrack is not able to make a credible polling average, the Mayor has consistently led his probable challenger, NY Comptroller William C. Thompson Jr. by as much as 25 points. A new Quinnipiac poll released yesterday finds a closer race, with Bloomberg leading Thompson by ten points, 47% to 37%, a Bloomberg advantage of +10%.

2009 Election Update: New Jersey

Posted Jul 28, 2009 at 2:22 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

The Democratic incumbent Governor continues to loose ground in the upcoming election New Jersey. PollTrack's polling average for the state reports that Republican challenger Chris Christie has a huge lead lead over incumbent Jon Corzine: 51.0% to 39.2%, for an Republican advantage of + 11.8%.

2009 Election Update: Virginia

Posted Jul 27, 2009 at 2:00 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

While the race has grown somewhat closer in Virginia's upcoming election for Governor, PollTrack's polling average for the state still shows Republican Bob McDonnell with a modest lead over Democrat Creigh Deeds: 46.3% to 42.8%, for an Republican advantage of + 3.5%.

NY US Senate 2010: Gillibrand and Maloney In Close Race

Posted Jul 24, 2009 at 1:23 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

Incumbent US Senator Kirsten Gillibrand has her work cut out for her in next's years Democratic primary in New York. According to A Rasmussen survey of likely Democratic voters, challenger, Democratic Congresswoman Caroline beats Gillibrand 33% to 27% in a hypothetical match-up. Two things to consider: neither woman is well-known to New York voters, the number of undecideds remains very high at 33%, and the spread is just outside the 5 percent margin of error.In other words, the race remains a toss up according to PollTrack's calculations.

 

Minnesota: Recount Struggle Hurts Ex-Senator's Future In State

Posted Jul 22, 2009 at 1:30 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

According to a new Public Policy Polling survey, "more than half of Minnesota voters say they have an unfavorable opinion of Norm Coleman and his actions during the recount. "52% of respondents said they now view Coleman negatively, with 38% still holding a positive opinion of him. 72% of Republicans but only 10% of Democrats give him good reviews, and independents are split 49/37 against him as well. 54% of voters in the state said the way he handled the recount against Al Franken made them less likely to support Coleman in the future for Governor or some other office, compared to 26% who said it made them more inclined to vote for him in a later contest."

New York Governor Paterson's Approval Edging Upward

Posted Jul 21, 2009 at 2:25 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

While New York's incumbent Democratic Governor, David Paterson, continues to sufffer from low approval ratings--now in the mid-30% range--his standing with voters has inched slightly upward in recent weeks. According to a Siena Research Institute survey, the Democrat, who faces election in 2010, was rated favorably by 36% of registered voters; unfavorably by 56%. The poll, conducted last week, reports an increase from 31% favorability in June 2009 and 27% in May. The recent chaotic breakdown of the NY State Legislature, deadlocked by a leadership struggle over, actually appears to help the Governor:  64% of voters gave Paterson credit for playing some role in resolving the state Senate fight.

NJ Governor 2009: Corzine Trials In Another Poll

Posted Jul 17, 2009 at 2:06 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

A new Monmouth University poll in New Jersey reports that GOP challenger Chirs Christie currently leads incumbent Governor Jon Corzine, 43% to 37% among registered voters. Independent Chris Daggett garners 5% of the vote and 15% of voters remain undecided. The survey continues: "Among likely voters – those who are most probable to vote on November 3rd – Christie leads Corzine by 8 points, 45% to 37%, with Daggett at 4%. While Christie has maintained an advantage in most polls this year, the race is far from over. Only 54% of likely voters say they have definitely made up their mind on which candidate they will be supporting. If voters who are only “leaning” toward a candidate are removed from the equation, Christie’s advantage shrinks to 4 points, 37% to 33%.

Another indication of the volatility of these early polls is the change in favorability rating for the two main candidates. Currently, Jon Corzine stands at 38% favorable to 46% unfavorable, with 16% who have no opinion. This indicates a drop in the governor’s favorable ratings since January, when they stood at 49% favorable to 38% unfavorable. Chris Christie has a better overall rating than his opponent, but there are some warning signs that the Republican should keep an eye on. Currently, Christie’s rating stands at 43% favorable to 24% unfavorable. While the GOP nominee’s favorable rating has remained basically steady since January, his unfavorable rating has climbed by 12 points."

VA Governor 2009: Republican McDonnell Continues To Lead

Posted Jul 16, 2009 at 1:31 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

A new Rasmussen survey reports that "Republican candidate Robert F. McDonnell has rebounded to take a narrow lead over Democrat R. Creigh Deeds in the race for governor in Virginia, highlighting the expected closeness of that contest right up to November." Among VA voters, "McDonnell leads Deeds 44% to 41%; 3% prefer some other candidate, and 12% are undecided . . . McDonnell has an 12-point lead among men. Deeds leads by five among female voters . . . 50% of Virginia voters have a favorable view of McDonnell, with 25% whose opinion is very favorable. 27% regard him unfavorably, including 7% very unfavorable. 22% don’t know enough abut McDonnell to venture an opinion of him. Deeds is seen favorably by 49%, with 19% very favorable, and unfavorably by 35%, including 11% who have a very unfavorable view of him. 17% aren’t sure what they think of the Democrat. McDonnell’s numbers are little changed from last month, but Deeds has suffered a 10-point drop in his favorables."

New Jersey: Democratic Givernor Corzine Sinks Further Behind

Posted Jul 15, 2009 at 1:23 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

Things continue to look bleak for incumbent Democratic Governor Jon Corzine in his 2009 reelection bid. A new Quinnipiac University poll reports that "Republican challenger Christopher Christie is pulling away from Corzine and now holds a 53% to 41% lead among likely voters in the New Jersey Governor's race . . . This compares to a 50 - 40 percent lead for the former federal prosecutor in a June 10 survey. In a three-way matchup among likely voters, Christie leads Gov. Corzine 47% to 38% percent, with 8% for independent candidate Christopher Daggett.  . . . In the two-way face-off, Corzine leads 76 - 19 percent among Democratic likely voters, while Christie leads 89% to 7% among Republicans and 64% to 28% percent among independent voters. This is a jump from Christie's 56 - 32 percent lead among independent voters June 10. In a three-way race, Daggett gets 13 percent of independent voters, with 54 percent for Christie and 24 percent for Corzine."

New Jersey: Is The National Economy Hurting Corzine In His Rellection Quest?

Posted Jul 13, 2009 at 1:57 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

One serious problem facing incumbent New Jersey Democratic Governor Jon Corzine in his 2009 reelection race according to Rasmussen Reports: a growing sense in the state that the nation is falling further into economic disarray: Just 4% of New Jersey voters rate the economy as good or excellent while 65% say it's in poor shape. 23% say things are getting better, but 47% say they are getting worse. PollTrack has noted this same phenomena in other states where the economy is suffering and incumbent Democratic governors now in trouble, including the key swing states of Virginia (a race that will also be decided this November) and Ohio.

Another Poll Shows Republican Christie Ahead in 2009 NJ Gubernatorial Race

Posted Jul 09, 2009 at 1:40 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

Yet another poll suggests that incumbent New Jersey Democratic Governor Jon Corzine is in trouble: "Just one in five voters (21%) say New Jersey is on the right track and, according to the most recent poll by Fairleigh Dickinson University’s PublicMind™, Republican Chris Christie continues to lead the Democratic incumbent governor by a margin of 45%-39% in the race for governor. Another 15% say they are unsure. Christie, the former U.S. Attorney for New Jersey, has increased his statewide name recognition to 87%, up 25 points since April. However, his ratio of favorable to unfavorable opinion has shifted away from him even as Corzine has begun advertising. One-third of New Jersey voters (34%) say they have a favorable view of Christie versus one quarter (25%) who have an unfavorable view, up from 12% in April. Another quarter (28%) say they have not formed an opinion. . . . Among all voters, 54% say their view of Corzine is unfavorable, while 31% say their view is favorable . . . 48% of Democrats say their view of Corzine is favorable, but 37% say their view is unfavorable. In fact, only two-thirds of Democratic voters (66%) support Corzine, while one in five (20%) say they prefer Christie and 13% are undecided." Not good news for the incumbent Governor.

Republican McDonnell Leads In 2009 VA Governor's Race

Posted Jul 08, 2009 at 1:48 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

According to a new Public Policy Polling survey, Democratic gubernatorial candidate Creigh Deeds has fallen behind his Republican challenger, Bob McDonnell. The GOP candidate now holds a 49% to 43% lead in this fall's race. As PPP notes: "We're detecting little interest in the race right now from black voters or young voters, both groups that were overwhelmingly supportive of Barack Obama and key to his success in the state last year. We currently project black turnout at 16% of the electorate, down from 20% last year, and voters under 30 at 8%, down from 21% last year. Getting those groups excited about his candidacy and out to the polls will be key to Deeds' prospects."

New MN Senator Has Generally Unfavorable National Rating

Posted Jul 07, 2009 at 2:10 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

According to a recent Rasmusen survey, newly minted Minnesota Democratic US Senator, Al Franken, has a relatively low national approval rating: "44% of U.S. voters have an unfavorable opinion of former “Saturday Night Live” comedy . . . as he prepares to join the U.S. Senate as its newest Democratic member . . . 34% have a favorable opinion of Franken, who will be sworn in today as [the next] senator from Minnesota. 22% are not sure what they think of him." Rasmussen alsocorrectly points out that "it is fairly typical for individual legislators to have negative favorability ratings on a national basis."

New York Gov. Peterson's Approval Rating: Dismal

Posted Jul 02, 2009 at 1:52 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

Things seem to just get worse and worse for New York Governor David Paterson. A new Marist College Poll reports: "The news for Governor David Paterson remains grim.  The governor’s approval rating is an abysmal 21%, and with the New York State Senate in disarray, nearly half of the state’s electorate says they disapprove of the way in which the governor is handling the situation while 43% approve.  To make matters even worse, more than six in ten registered voters disapprove of the way Paterson is dealing with the state’s economic crisis.How bad is Governor Paterson’s political situation?  The answer is pretty bad.  According to The Marist Poll’s new statewide survey, about one in five registered voters in New York — 21% — report that Governor Paterson is doing either an excellent or good job in office.  Voters’ view of the governor’s job performance is little changed since The Marist Poll last asked this question in May.  At that time, 19% of voters gave Paterson’s job performance above average marks.  And, the governor still does not receive affirmation from a major share of voters within his own party.  However, he has received a slight bump among Democrats in New York State.  28% believe Governor Paterson is doing an excellent or good job in office.  This compares with the 22% of Democrats he received in May."

Democrat Gov. Jon Corzine Remains Well Behind In NJ Reelection Effort

Posted Jul 01, 2009 at 1:34 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

A new poll suggests that New Jersey's incumbent Democratic Governor has a tough road ahead of him in this year's reelection campaign. A Public Policy Polling survey reports that Republican challenger Chris Christie leads Gov. Jon Corzine by ten points: 51% to 41%: "Christie is being buoyed by a 60-26 advantage with independent voters and a remarkable degree of party unity, as he leads 93-3 with Republicans. By comparison, Corzine has just a 75-16 edge with Democrats . . . There's not much doubt Christie's lead is being fueled largely by Corzine's unpopularity. 56% of voters in the state have a negative opinion of the incumbent, while just 36% view him favorably. For Christie the breakdown is 43% positive and 33% unfavorable."

Coleman Concedes After Court Rules That Democrat Franken Won MN US Senate Race

Posted Jun 30, 2009 at 8:51 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

Republican Norm Coleman has conceded the 2008 US Senate race in Minnesota to Democrat Al Franken, after the state Supreme Court ruled this afternoon that Franken won. The court ruled unanimously in Franken's favor.

Arelen Specter In Serious Trouble In PA

Posted Jun 29, 2009 at 2:09 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

Former Republican, now turned Democratic, US Senator Arlen Specter is in deep trouble in his 2010 PA reelection bid, according to a new Franklin and Marshall survey: His job approval rating has dropped from 52% to 34% over the past three months. Even more ominous for Specter is that the proportion of state residents who believe he deserves re-election has declined from 40% to 28%. His numbers are tepid even among members of his recently adopted party: 43% of Democrats say Specter deserves re-election; 39% say no. In a hypothetical primary match up with Rep. Joe Sestak (D-PA), Specter leads 33% to 13%. Nevertheless, and quite significantly, 48% remain undecided.

Democrat Incumbent Governor Corzine Continues To Do Poorly in New Jersey

Posted Jun 25, 2009 at 1:40 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

The political landscape continues to look bleak for incumbent Democratic Governor Jon Corzine in New Jersey. With the general election a little more than four months away, a new Strategic Vision poll in New Jersey finds Republican Christopher Christie leading Corzine by an impressive 12 points, 51% to 39% with 8% undecided.

NY Gov. Paterson Remains Very Unpopular

Posted Jun 23, 2009 at 12:52 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

According to a new Siena Institute Poll, incumbent New York Governor David Paterson remains very unpopular with voters: His approval rating is just 31%. In a hypothetical Democratic primary match up, New York Attorney General Andrew Cuomo crushes Paterson, 69% to 16%. In general election match ups, Rudy Giuliani would also crush Paterson, 57% to 27%, while Cuomo would beat Giuliani, 49% to 40%.

 

New Poll: VA Gubernatorial Race Now A Tie

Posted Jun 19, 2009 at 1:33 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

A just released DailyKos/Research 2000 poll reports that Republican Bob McDonnell is now edging Democrat Creigh Deeds in the Virginia gubernatorial race--45% to 44%. Given the poll's margin of error of +/- 4 points, the race is essentially tied. The public appears to have a better of the Republican, who has a favorability rating 55% to 36%; Deeds is at 47% to 35%.

Democrat Deeds Leading In 2009 VA Governor's Race

Posted Jun 17, 2009 at 1:41 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

The Democrats appear to now hold a slight edge in Virginia's race for Governor. According to an Anzalone Liszt Research (D), Democrat Creigh Deeds (D) leads Republican Bob McDonnell, 42% to 38%. (The poll was conducted for the Democratic Governor's Association, so it may have a partisan tilt.) Deeds has a slightly higher favorability rating, as well: Deeds favorable ratio is 48% to 14%; McDonnell's 43% to 19%.

New Poll: Bloomberg Way Ahead In New York Mayoralty

Posted Jun 16, 2009 at 1:47 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

A new poll out from Quinnipiac University suggests that incumbent NY mayor Michael Bloomberg will hab a very easy time come his November reelection bout against presumptive Democratic nominee and New York City Comptroller, William Thompson. According to Quinnipiac, Bloomberg, who will run as an indepdent, bests Thompson 54% to 32%. The election at this point looks like a romp for the popular mayor. He currently leads Thompson in all sectors of the political spectrum--49% to 40% among Democrats; 71% to 12% among Republicans; and 59% to 26% among independent voters.

VA Governor: New Poll Shows Democrat Deeds In The Lead

Posted Jun 12, 2009 at 1:53 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

With the Democratic primary for Governor over in Virginia, a new poll by Rasmussen reports that the Democrat, R. Creigh deeds leads Republican challenger, former Attorney General Robert F. McDonnell, by six points, 47% to 41%. 2% favor another candidate and 10% are undecided.The race is somewhat of a rematch: McDonnell beat Deeds in the 2005 state attorney general’s race by less than 400-votes, one of the closest elections in Virginia history.

New Jersey Governor 2009: Incumbent Democrat Corzine Trails Christie

Posted Jun 11, 2009 at 1:49 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

New Jersey Governor Jon Corzine continues to trail his Republican challenger, according to a new Quinnipiac poll: GOP candidate Chris Christie leads Corzine 50% to 40%, among likely voters. The road to November seems particularly steep for Corzine: "Most New Jersey voters say he does not deserve re-election; that things have gotten worse since he became Governor and that personally he is cold and businesslike, not warm and friendly."

Not Even Close: Creigh Deeds Wins VA Democratic Gubernatorial Primary

Posted Jun 09, 2009 at 4:36 PM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

It's not even Close. Creigh deeds wins the Virginia Democratic gubernatorial primary by a wide margin. Here is the result from the VA Board of Elections, with nearly all of the vote counted:

CANDIDATE VOTE VOTE% STATISTICS DETAILS
Governor

Last Reported: Jun 9 2009 10:31PM EST


R. Creigh Deeds
159,324 49.73% Precincts Reporting:
    2,499 of 2,504 (99.80%)

Voter Turnout:
    320,369 of 4,959,506 active voters (6.459%)
    320,369 of 5,071,226 total voters (6.317%)
Votes by County/City

Votes by District

Terry R. McAuliffe
84,640 26.41%

Brian J. Moran
76,405 23.84%


Tunrnout Low In VA Democratic Gubernatorial Primary

Posted Jun 09, 2009 at 5:38 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

The New York Times reports that voter turnout appears to be very low in Virginia in today's Democratic gubernatorial primary: "Democratic voters in Virginia trickled to the polls Tuesday, as heavy morning rains dampened what was already expected to be a low turnout for the close of an unusually contentious, expensive and closely-watched primary for governor. The race is one of two elections for governor this year — the other is in New Jersey — and both national parties are strongly involved. Democrats hope to continue their party’s recent winning streak in this historically conservative state . . . Polling stations in McLean, Arlington and Alexandria looked more like ghost towns as poll workers outnumbered voters three to one during what was supposed to be the before-work rush around 8 a.m." With turnout expected at no greater than 10%, PollTrack suggests that the outcome of the election could be skewed in favor of the most well-organized candidate. Pre-election polls showed Creigh Deeds surging ahead, picking up the lion's share of undecided voters.

2009 Virginia Governor's Race: May Be Tough For Democrats Come November

Posted Jun 09, 2009 at 1:54 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

Whoever wins today's primary for the Democratic gubernatorial nomination in Virginia, one senior politician's on-the-ground oberservation about the mood of voters in the state should give Democrats reason to be concerned: Democrat Douglas Wilder, who became the country's first African-American governor when Virginians elected him in 1989, "thinks that no matter who emerges victorious from the state's Democratic gubernatorial primary on Tuesday, the party will find it awfully tough to defeat Republican candidate Bob McDonnell in November. Wilder said there's something in the air' that makes him think Virginia voters aren't prepared to elect a Democrat to the governorship for the third straight time. Democrats Mark Warner and Tim Kaine have won the last two gubernatorial elections in the commonwealth. Before that, Republicans won two consecutive victories with George Allen and Jim Gilmore. 'Each time around, voters say, "Wait a minute, no one's supposed to be here forever," and I think Virginians like to see that degree of balance,' Wilder said in an interview with CNN. 'They like to mix it up. I think the guy who can ride that horse to show some grasp of the independent voter, rather than just the Republican or Democratic voter, will be successful. That's key.'"

Another Poll Reports Deeds Pulling Ahead in VA Democratic Primary

Posted Jun 08, 2009 at 4:44 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

A poll from one of the most accurate pollsters in the 2008 national cycle, SurveyUSA, also reports that Creigh Deeds is pulling away in Virginia's Democratic primary for Governor: "24 hours until votes are counted in the Democratic Primary for Governor of Virginia, momentum shifts to Deeds . . . In 4 identical SurveyUSA tracking polls, Deeds' support has gone from 22% to 26% to 29% to today 42%. Deeds finishes ahead of Terry McAuliffe, whose support has declined in each of the 4 tracking polls and who ends at 30%. Brian Moran, who has treaded water in 4 tracking polls, finishes 3rd, at 21%."

Deeds Take Significant Lead In VA Democratic Gubernatorial Primary

Posted Jun 08, 2009 at 2:29 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

According to a Public Policy Polling survey released late yesterday, Democrat Creigh Deeds has taken a healthy lead in Virginia's Democratic gubernatorial primary. The poll also shows the formerly large bloc of undecided voters breaking for Deeds: "Two days before the election Creigh Deeds has opened up a commanding lead in the Democratic primary for Governor of Virginia. Deeds is now at 40%, followed by Terry McAuliffe at 26% and Brian Moran at 24%. In the last week Deeds has gained 13 points while McAuliffe and Moran have each advanced by just two. Deeds now leads in every region of the state except Hampton Roads, including a 38-35 lead over Moran in northern Virginia, where just two and a half weeks ago Deeds was polling at only 11%. Deeds is up over 50% in the parts of the state outside Washington DC/Richmond/Hampton Roads."

VA Governor: Another Poll Shows Deeds In The Lead

Posted Jun 05, 2009 at 6:13 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

Another poll, this time from Suffolk University,  shows a close race in VA's Democratic primary for Governor: "Virginia voters give Democratic gubernatorial candidate Creigh Deeds (29%) a slight lead over opponents Terry McAuliffe (26%), and Brian Moran (23%), leading up to the June 9 Primary, with a significant 22% still undecided.  The poll shows that all three candidates are within the statistical margin of error and any one of them could ultimately emerge as the Democrat to face Republican Bob McDonnell in November.

Daily Kos/Research 2000: VA Democratic Governor's Primary Too Close To Call

Posted Jun 05, 2009 at 2:05 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

A new Daily Kos/Research 2000 poll reports two key observations in next week's race for the Democratic nomination for Governor in Virginia: Former leader Terry McAuliffe has fallen behind the pack, and that the numbers all fall well within the poll's margin of error. The uphot: the race is too close to call. Here are the numbers: state Sen. Creigh Deeds at 30%, former state Rep. Brian Moran at 27%, and former Democratic National Committee chairman Terry mcAuliffe at 26%.

Rasmussen: Christie (r) Has Big Lead Over Corzine (d)

Posted Jun 05, 2009 at 1:54 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

According to a new poll released after the results of Tuesday's GOP primary became known to voters in New Jersey, Republican Chris Christie has a sunstantial lead over incumbent Democratic Governor Jon Corzine: "The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey in the state shows Christie with 51% of the vote while Corzine is supported by 38%. Last month, before the primary, it was Christie with 47% of the vote and Corzine with 38%. The slight increase in support for Christie may reflect a temporary bounce from his primary victory. Still, voters recognize that it’s tough for a Republican to win statewide races in the Garden State. Just 43% say that Christie is likely to end up as the next governor while 41% say Corzine will be re-elected. New Jersey polls often show Republican candidates doing well in the spring with Democrats gaining ground in the fall. Corzine is expected to heavily outspend Christie which could add to that trend. A Republican has not won a statewide election in the Garden State since 1997." A real sign of Corzine's troubles: his approval rating is stagnant at 41%, while 53% of NJ voters have at least a "somewhat favorable" opinion of Christie. 

Survey USA: VA Democratic Gubernatorial Primary Too Close To Call

Posted Jun 04, 2009 at 2:07 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

According to a new poll by Survey USA, one of the most accurate and reliable polsters of the 2008 cycle, next week's Democratic gubenatorial primary in Virginia is too close to call. And a number of signs point to the increasing volatility of a race that former Democratic party chairman Terry McAuliffe had appeared to be walking away with: 6 days till Virginia voters choose the Democratic nominee for Governor, there is unusual volatility in SurveyUSA's tracking graphs, reflected in the newest data gathered for WJLA-TV Washington DC and WDBJ-TV Roanoke. Overall, former Democratic National Committee chair Terry McAuliffe remains on top today with 35%, state senator Creigh Deeds has 29%, former state delegate Brian Moran 26%. But, enough is happening below the surface to add considerable drama to Tuesday's outcome. Half of Survey USA likely voters say they may yet change their mind. Among voters who say their mind is made up, Deeds leads, with McAuliffe and Moran a half-dozen points back. Where is the volatility? Men are breaking for Moran."

Is Terry McAuliffe Loosing Steam in VA Democratic Gubernatorial Primary?

Posted Jun 03, 2009 at 2:22 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

Is Terry McAuliffe in trouble in his bid for the Democratic gubernatorial nomination in Virginia. A new survey suggests that the former DNC head may not be as far ahead as some recent polls have suggested: The SurveyUSA poll reports that in four Northern Virginia counties -- Fairfax, Arlington, Loudoun and Price William -- challenger Brian Moran (D) "remains a force" with just one week until voters head to the polls. Moran leads with 43% in the DC suburbs, followed by McAuliffe (D) at 27% and Creigh Deeds (D) at 20%. PollTrack suggests that since this region makes more than a quarter of the state's likely Democratic voters--and often has very high turnout--the race may be far from over for Moran. Another survey actually reports that McAuliffe is no longer the presumptive leader: Public Policy Polling reports that Creigh Deeds now leads at 27%, followed by Terry McAuliffe at 24%, and Brian Moran at 22%.
But the race remains very close, since these numbers are well within the poll's margin of error. The PPP survey suggest that it is Deeds who might have the momentum: Over the last month Deeds has gone from 14% to 27% while McAuliffe has dropped from 30% to 24% and Moran has pretty much stayed in place.

Christie Handily Defeats Lonegan in NJ GOP Gubenatorial Primary

Posted Jun 02, 2009 at 3:52 PM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

Well, New Jesey Republican chose the more moderate of the two main rivals for the GOP nomination for Governor: With 86 percent of precincts reporting, Mr. Christie had 162,210 votes to 124,196 for Mr. Lonegan, or 55 percent to 42 percent. Assemblyman Rick Merkt drew 3 percent, according to the Associated Press. PollTrack can now call the GOP primary for former US federal prosecutor, Christopher J. Christie.

Does Democrat Corzine Want To Run Against Lonegan?

Posted Jun 02, 2009 at 10:11 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

See post below, New Jersey Governor 2009: Incumbent Jon Corzine (d) Trailing Republican Rivals to get a sense of why Democratic incumbent NJ governor Jon Corzine may favor the more conservative Lonegan as his GOP challenger. It is no accident that Lonegan--who does 4% less well than Christie in a hypothetical match up against Corzine--is both more conservative and more appealing to the Republican base than Christie. But will GOP voters choose to endorse the candidate who appears to have a better chance of defeating Corzine of the candidate who remains truer to hardline Republican principals? We will know later tonight.

Today's NJ GOP Primary: Could Lonegan Score An Upset?

Posted Jun 02, 2009 at 9:48 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

Could former Bogota Mayor Steve Lonegan, very popular with the party faithful in New Jersey, score an upset over the presumptive leader in today's GOP primary for Governor, former U.S. Attorney Chris Christie? Well, hard to say. But two factors could produce the perfect storm for a Lonegan upset: light turnout, which would favor the candidate most likely to do well among GOP diehards and the spate of very negative TV commercials adainst Christie run recently by incumbent Democratic Govorner Jon Corzine. So, are these commercials actually meant to defeat Christie in the primary, in order for Corzine to run against a candidate possible less appeal to middle-of-the road voters and independents? Or has Corzine misculated, running commercials against a candidate he (perhaps prematurely) believes is the presumptive GOP nominee? PollTrack's guess: the former seems to be the more likely scenario. 

Vote Going Smoothly In NJ GOP Primary

Posted Jun 02, 2009 at 9:31 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

According to the Newark Star-Ledger, voting is going smoothly in today's NY GOP primary for Governor: "It's been a relatively clean day of polling across the state in the Republican race for governor, according to officials from all three GOP camps. So far, the campaigns of Chris Christie, Steve Lonegan and Rick Merkt said they have encountered virtually no problems with their voters being disenfranchised at the polls or experiencing major problems with voting machines. State election officials have also reported no problems at the polls. The Secretary of State's Office, which oversees elections, has so far not had to deal with any major elections problems, according to agency spokeswoman Susan Evans."

Today's NY GOP Gubernatorial Primary: Christie Headed For Victory

Posted Jun 02, 2009 at 1:54 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

In their campaign to unseat incumbent Democratic Governor Jon Corzine in New Jersey, Republicans are appatently prepared to nominate Former U.S. Attorney Chris Christie, according to a Fairleigh Dickinson University poll. Christie leads former Bogota Mayor Steve Lonegan by a whopping 24%--54% to 30% in the race for the GOP gubernatorial nomination that will be decided in today's primary. This represents a marked improvement for Christie from numbers he received las week from a Rasmussen Reports poll, which showed him leading Steve Lonegan by 11 points, 46% to 35%.

New Jersey Governor 2009: Incumbent Jon Corzine (d) Trailing Republican Rivals

Posted Jun 01, 2009 at 4:00 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

According to a Daily Kos/Research 2000 survey, incumbent New Jersey Governor Jon Corzine continues to trail BOTH possible Republican rivals in his reelection bid. The survey reports the General Election Match-Ups as follows:

Chris Christie (R) 46%
Jon Corzine (D) 39%
Undecided 15%

Steve Lonegan (R) 43%
Jon Corzine (D) 40%
Undecided 17%

The Daily Kos analysis continues: "First, the bad news: incumbent Democrat Jon Corzine trails both potential Republican challengers in a general election. With the GOP primary coming up, likely nominee Chris Christie has, at present, a seven-point edge over Corzine. The non-establishment conservative candidate in the race, former Bogota Mayor Steve Lonegan, enjoys a slight lead as well of three points. There is a little bit of good news for Corzine in these numbers, however. For one thing, his numbers versus his Republican opponents appear to be holding steady, compared to other recent polling in the race. His numbers had been heading south, but there is at least some sign that his poll numbers have bottomed out."

Nevertheless, PollTrack notes that it is difficult to see these numbers as anything but discouraging for a sitting governor a mere six-months from the Election Day.

Public Policy Polling: US Senator Approval Ratings

Posted May 26, 2009 at 2:06 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

A very interesting survey from Public Policy Polling takes stock of the approval ratings of a number of US Senators. The highest approval rating of the lot: Democrat Amy Klobuchar from Minnesota. The lowest: embattled Illinois Democratic Roland Burris, who replace Barack Obama. Here is the list:

enator

Approval

Amy Klobuchar (D-MN)

62/25

Tom Coburn (R-OK)

59/29

Kay Bailey Hutchison (R-TX)

58/31

Tom Carper (D-DE)

57/26

Kit Bond (R-MO)

57/27

Mark Pryor (D-AR)

54/30

John McCain (R-AZ)

53/31

James Inhofe (R-OK)

52/35

Dick Durbin (D-IL)

47/34

Blanche Lincoln (D-AR)

45/40

Jim Webb (D-VA)

44/33

Mitch McConnell (R-KY)

44/47

Bill Nelson (D-FL)

42/29

Mark Udall (D-CO)

41/46

Richard Burr (R-NC)

36/32

Ted Kaufman (D-DE)

35/24

Michael Bennet (D-CO)

34/41

Kay Hagan (D-NC)

33/33

Johnny Isakson (R-GA)

30/25

George Voinovich (R-OH)

30/38

Jim Bunning (R-KY)

28/54

Mel Martinez (R-FL)

23/37

Roland Burris (D-IL)

17/62

VA Governor: Slight Shift In Democratic Primary Polling

Posted May 22, 2009 at 1:49 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

Who's ahead in Virginia in the June 2009 election to achieve the Democratic nomination for Governor. According to Survey USA: Former Democratic National Committee chair Terry McAuliffe continues to run strongest of the 3 candidates for Democratic nomination for Virginia Governor . . . three weeks to the Primary, it's McAuliffe 37%, Creigh Deeds 26%, Brian Moran 22%. Compared to an identical SurveyUSA poll three weeks ago, McAuliffe and Moran are flat, Deeds is up. 57% of likely Democratic Primary voters today say they may change their mind -- down from 64% three weeks ago - but high enough to describe a fluid electorate still evaluating its options. McAuliffe, who ran Hillary Clinton's 2008 presidential campaign, is 11 points atop Deeds, a state senator -- but Deeds is the only candidate with momentum, and today leads McAuliffe in Central Virginia by 12 points, a 19-point swing to Deeds in the past 3 weeks. Deeds and McAuliffe remain tied in the Shenandoah; McAuliffe remains in command in the southeastern portion of the state. In Northern Virginia, Moran's 23-point lead three weeks ago is today a 10-point lead." 

Still, according to a Daily Kos/Research 2000 poll, the overall picture is NOT good for the Democrats in Virginia: In general election match ups, presumptive Republican nominee Bob McDonnell (R) bests all of the potential Democratic nominees. McDonnell is ahead of McAuliffe 44% to 34%, tops Moran, 42% to 35%, and leads Deeds, 45% to 32%.

Minnesota Voters Want Coleman (R) To Concede

Posted May 20, 2009 at 1:14 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

According to Rasmussen Reports, 54% of Minnesota voters say Republican incumbent Norm Coleman should concede the race after months of legal challenges and let Al Franken be seated in the U.S. Senate. But 41% disagree . . . 87% of Democrats want Coleman to quit, while 77% of Republicans want him to stay in the fight. Most (53%) of those not affiliated with either major party say that Coleman should concede. 63% of all voters in the state are now convinced that Franken will ultimately be named the winner of the Senate race. Just 16% say Coleman will win in the end. 21% are still not sure who the winner will be."

2009 NJ Governor: Republican Christie Leads Incumbent Democrat Corzine

Posted May 19, 2009 at 1:40 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

Incumbent Democratic Governor Jon Corzine continues to suffer in his attempt to retain his seat in this year's re-election battle: "Corzine trails Republican challenger Chris Christie by nine percentage points. The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Garden State voters shows Christie with 47% of the vote and Corzine with 38%. The Governor does better when matched against Republican Steve Lonegan. In that case, it’s Lonegan with 42% and Corzine just a point behind at 41%. These numbers, while disappointing for an incumbent, are actually an improvement for Corzine. In March, as the Governor announced announcing his budget plan including $916 million in new and increased taxes, Corzine trailed Christie by fifteen points and was eight points behind Lonegan"

2009 NJ Governor: Attorney General Christie Leads GOP Pack

Posted May 18, 2009 at 2:17 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

There appears to be a front-runner in the contest for the GOP nod to run against incumbent NJ Governor Jon Corzine. According to Rasmussen Reports survey, "with less than three weeks to go until New Jersey Republicans select their nominee for governor, Chris Christie attracts 39% of the state's GOP voters while Steve Lonegan earns 29%. Another 29% remain undecided, and three percent (3%) say they’ll vote for some other candidate, according to the latest Rasmussen Reports telephone poll in the state. Rick Merkt, an assemblyman from Morris, is also running, but he did not qualify to participate in the first debate between the frontrunners. The candidates debated Tuesday night for the first time. That was also the night of the survey."

It's Official: Democrat Murphy Wins NY-2- By 726-Votes

Posted May 14, 2009 at 1:24 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

While not by a landslide by any means, Democrat Scott Murphy has official won the special election in New York's 20th-Congressional District to replace now US Senator kirsten Gillibrand. According to the Albany Times Union, Murphy won his seat in Congress over Jim Tedisco by 726 votes.  The final tally, which the commissioners will meet to certify at a noon meeting in Albany, is 80,833 to 80,107.

Democrat Gov. Corzine Still In Trouble In New Jersey

Posted May 07, 2009 at 1:18 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

Democratic Givernor Jon Corzine is still in trouble in his 2009 reelection bid: "In a state that favors Democrats, the Republicans are hanging tight in their bid to oust incumbent Governor Jon Corzine. The latest Monmouth University/Gannett New Jersey Poll finds former U.S. Attorney Chris Christie with a small lead over Corzine, while the incumbent has a slight advantage over former Bogota mayor Steve Lonegan. But voters seem to be wondering why no one is talking about their number one issue – property taxes. Governor Corzine’s job performance rating currently stands at 40% approve to 49% disapprove, a slight improvement from the 34%-51% rating he held in February. Currently, 43% of voters have a personally favorable view of Jon Corzine compared to 47% who have an unfavorable view. In head-to-head match-ups with the two leading GOP contenders, Jon Corzine trails Chris Christie by 39% to 35% among registered voters. However, Corzine leads Steve Lonegan by 37% to 33%." PollTrack suggests that despite his lead over Lonegan, Corzine's standing is SO low relative to that of a popular incumbent that they strongly suggest a rough road ahead for the Democrat, numbers nowhere near where a sitting governor wants to be at this stage in a re-election campaign.

Eight Big US Cities To Pick Mayors This Week

Posted May 05, 2009 at 2:05 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

In the next seven days, no less than eight large American cities will pick mayors. As Governing. com writes: "Big city mayors often are rising political stars, generally command powerful political machines and invariably make important policy decisions. The national media ignores them almost entirely. So, it comes as no surprise that no one has noticed that we're about to enjoy a splendid week of mayoral elections. Voters in eight of the nation's sixty-five most populous cities will elect new mayors over the next week." For an excellent rundown by Josh Goodman, click here.

$6 Million Spent In NY-20

Posted May 04, 2009 at 1:17 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

How much did it cost Democratic Scott Murphy and his Republican challenger, Jim Tedisco, to battle it out in the recent special election in New York's 20th Congressional district?: $6 million according to a report in CQ Politics: "Murphy, who won the March 31 special House election in upstate New York, and state Rep. Jim Tedisco, his Republican opponent, combined to spend more than $3.8 million on that exceptionally close race. According to campaign finance documents filed with the Federal Election Commission (FEC), Murphy raised $2.15 million and Tedisco raised $1.68 million through April 20. They raised those prodigious sums even though the campaign only began in January, after Democrat Kirsten Gillibrand— who had won a second term in the 20th District seat last November — resigned to accept an appointment to the U.S. Senate seat that Democrat Hillary Rodham Clinton vacated to become secretary of State. Add to this, the more than $2 million worth of contributions from the respective political parties' congressional committees, and you're talking a good $6 million spent in NY-20. 

One Democrat Jumps To Lead In Party Primary for VA Governor

Posted May 01, 2009 at 1:53 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

One candidate appears to have an advantage in the 2009 Democratic primary for Virginia Governor: A new SurveyUSA poll in Virginia finds Terry McAuliffe leading his rivals for the Democratic gubernatorial nomination with 38%, followed by Creigh Deeds and Brian Moran each with 22%." The survey also reports that "64% of likely primary voters say they may change their mind," thus blunting the overall result of the poll.

Minnesota US Senate: Voters Want Republican Coleman To Concede

Posted Apr 28, 2009 at 1:51 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

A new Minneapolis Star Tribune poll has bad news for 2008 Republican US Senate candidate: most voters want him to concede the race to Democratic challenger Al Franken, who now leads by several hundred votes: "Nearly two-thirds of Minnesotans surveyed think Norm Coleman should concede the U.S. Senate race to Al Franken, but just as many believe the voting system that gave the state its longest running election contest needs improvement. A new poll has found that 64% of those responding believe Coleman, the Republican, should accept the recount trial court's April 13 verdict that Democrat Franken won the race by 312 votes. Only 28% consider last week's appeal by Coleman to the Minnesota Supreme Court 'appropriate.' Large majorities of those polled said they would oppose any further appeal to the U.S. Supreme Court. Should Coleman win at the state Supreme Court, 57% of respondents said Franken should concede. And 73% believe Coleman should give up if he loses at the state's highest court."

Democrat Scott Murphy Wins NY-20

Posted Apr 25, 2009 at 1:25 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

With Democrat Scott Murphy leading by 400-votes out of 160,000 votes cast--and several hundred paper ballots yet to be counted--Republican Jim Tedisco called his opponent yesterday afternoon and conceeded the special election to replace former Democratic representative Kirsten Gillibrand in New York's 20th congressional district. Scott Murphy has thus won the closely contested election and will become the next congressman in what has become a classic swing district. A referendum on Obama or the Republican Party? PollTrack believes that the closeness of the election, in a district with a Republican voter registration advantage of 75,000, while not a barometer of the political fortunes of either party, still suggests trouble for the GOP.

NY-20: Democrat Murphy's Lead Grows, Tedisco Expects Defeat

Posted Apr 24, 2009 at 1:39 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

While the tally in the NY-20 Special Election remains close, PollTrack believes that the disposition of the remaining contested absentee ballots--their demographic breakdown--suggest that the Democrat Scott Murphy is headed for victory. As if to underscore this analysis, each new day of counting appears to increase the Democrat's lead:: As of late yesterday, Murphy's lead over Assemblyman Jim Tedisco has grown to 401-votes. According to Politiker NY, "the new tally reflects updated numbers from Warren and Essex counties. Counting is still taking place in Saratoga and Washington counties. Most of Murphy's gain came from Warren County, Democratic Elections Commissioner and Party Chairman Bill Monfort, said. The new overall number reflects a tally from 250 ballots set aside and now counted in the last two days."

Roll Call reports that Tedisco realizes that he has lost the election: "A GOP source on Capitol Hill said Thursday afternoon that Republican Jim Tedisco’s camp has abandoned hope of winning New York’s 20th district special election but that the former state Assembly Minority Leader won’t concede the race to Democrat Scott Murphy until technical legal questions surrounding voter residency issues are resolved.The source said that Tedisco believes the residency issues that came up during absentee vote counting after the March 31 contest could have a bearing on future races in New York. As such, the source said, Tedisco wants to see those issues resolved before ending the legal battle."

NY-20: Court Rules Ballot Counting Will Continue

Posted Apr 23, 2009 at 1:02 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

The race remains close and is far frrom over in the special election in New York's 20th congressional district to fill the seat vacated by now US Senator Kristen Gillibrand. According to Politiker NY: "The ballot-counting will likely go on for a long time, in light of a just issued court ruling. Judge James Brands declined to set a specific standard regarding valid residency, and said that objections lodged on the basis of ballot applications will stand. While Democrat Scott Murphy leads Jim Tedisco by 273 votes according to the official tally, there are some 1,800 votes left uncounted. The ruling favors the Tedisco camp--or at least buys them time. Brands [ruled] that applications for absentee ballots were correctly provided to both campaigns, and that objections to ballots lodged based on these applications do stand.  "Common sense dictates that in order to intelligently form a decision as to whether an objection should be made, the application's content must of necessity be perused," Brands wrote."

GOP Says NY-20 To Be Decided In Court

Posted Apr 21, 2009 at 2:21 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

Politico reports that the special election in NY-20, now a virtual tie with Democrat Scott Murphy maintaining what may be an insurmountable lead, may wind up being decided by the courts, if the GOP has its way: "As the count begins to wind down, it seems like the GOP is prepared for a protracted court battle, at least by the sound of this internal memo sent this afternoon by a National Republican Congressional Committee staffer:

From: ********** [mailto:********@nrcc.org]
Sent: Thursday, April 16, 2009 12:04 PM
To:
Subject: NY-20 Update

Hi there, I wanted to give you an update on NY-20. As of last night, Tedisco was down by only 86 votes (Official BOE count). This represents a .05% differential between the two campaigns. Seven of the ten counties have completed counting their absentee ballots and all ballot counting should be complete by Friday. 6,200 absentee ballots have been counted so far with approximately 570 remaining. Approximately, 1,550 absentee ballots have been challenged by attorneys for either the Tedisco or Murphy campaigns. These ballots are not included in the overall numbers. The election will most likely be decided in the courts."

NY-20: Democrat Scott Murphy Leads By 273-Votes

Posted Apr 17, 2009 at 7:36 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

At this point in the counting of ballots in the special congressional election in NY-20, Democrat Scott Murphy has a 273-vote lead over Republican Jim Tedisco. PollTrack believes that this advantage will be enough to secure victory for the Democrat. The Republican Party, however, has vowed to take the matter to count. Challenged absentee ballots--numbering over 1,000--will be counted on Monday. Most of these have been challenged by the Republicans, suggesting that there is little change that even if all of these were included in the total, Tedisco could overtake Murphy's lead.

 

NY-20: Battle Ahead Over Absentee Ballots

Posted Apr 15, 2009 at 2:22 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

Minnesota all over again? Politico reports that there is a battle brewing over absentee ballots in the hotly contested--and now virtually tied--NY-20 special election: "Just like in the Minnesota Senate recount, the special election in New York’s Twentieth District looks like it will be determined by disputed absentee ballots. Both campaigns have already challenged the legality of around 600 absentee ballots, which have been pulled aside and not included in the current count. Democrats estimate that the majority of the challenges -- about 60 percent – have come from Republican Jim Tedisco. Indeed, Republicans have been especially aggressive in challenging absentee ballots in Columbia County, which Murphy won on Election Night by more than 1,880 votes. Tedisco has already challenged at least 63 absentee ballots there, and the campaign has flagged around 200 absentee ballots as questionable.Tedisco’s campaign has also challenged several dozen absentees in Dutchess County, another county that backed Murphy. Nearly all of Tedisco’s challenges center on the voters’ residency. Republicans are arguing that voters who establish a primary residence outside the district – and receive tax benefits there – are ineligible to vote in the district. Democrats dispute that interpretation of state election law, and argue that as long as voters are registered at one address, they’re eligible to vote there."

Democrat Murphy Now Leading In Razor-Close NY-20

Posted Apr 13, 2009 at 2:21 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

Democrat Scott Murphy has taken the lead over Republican Jim Tedisco in the hotly contested and razor-close congressional race in NY-20. According to the latest tally from the New York State Board of Elections, Murphy leads by 35-votes. One ray of hope fpr Tedisco: the district's largest--and most Republican--county has yet to report the count of its absentee and overseas ballots. Given the 8% lead that Tedisco held in Saratoga County on election night--and the large pool of voters from this area--are these uncounted paper ballots holding a sharp GOP advantage. If Tedisco leads by the same margin in this voter pool--8%--he will undoubtedly take the lead. Stay tuned.

NJ Democrat Gov. Jon Corzine Not Favored For Re-Election This November

Posted Apr 09, 2009 at 1:55 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

A new poll continues to show incumbent New Jersey Democratic governor Jon Corzine behind in his effort to win reelection this November: Gov. Jon Corzine continues to struggle with the budget and New Jersey voters even as he officially filed for re-election. According to the most recent poll by Fairleigh Dickinson University’s PublicMind, 49% of voters disapprove of the job Corzine is doing while 40% approve. 'Sometimes timing is everything,' said Peter Woolley, a political scientist and director of the poll. 'He’s the only incumbent governor in the country up for election this year as the financial crisis hits.'  Among Democrats, six of ten approve of the job he is doing (61%), but independents disapprove by more than two to one (58 to 25) and Republicans disapprove by almost five to one (77-16). Just 33% say they have a favorable opinion of Corzine, while 56% have an unfavorable opinion, a shift from measurements taken a month ago that showed 38% favorable and 48% unfavorable. In a general election trial heat against Republicans, Corzine continues to trail former U.S. Attorney Chris Christie by nine points, 33%-42%. Just 58% of Democrats line up behind Corzine while 78% of Republicans prefer Christie. Christie’s name recognition continues to climb, to 62% from 57% a month ago; and 31% have a favorable opinion of the former U.S. Attorney for New Jersey while 12% have an unfavorable view."

The Latest On NY-20: Republican Tedisco Leads By 17-Votes

Posted Apr 08, 2009 at 1:29 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

According to the New York State Board of Elections, Republican Jim Tedisco Leads Democrat Scott Murphy by 17-votes in the special election to replace congresswoman Kerstin Gillibrand. As of late yesterday, the official tally with most counties now re-canvassed reads as follows:

 

Scott Murphy (D):   77,017

Jim Tedisco (R):     77,034

 

The Albany Times Union reports that counties will begin counting absentee ballots today, despite Tedisco insistence that counting resume only after all of the ballots are in: "Lawyers for Republican Jim Tedisco argued Monday the ballots should not be opened until April 14, the day after the deadline for receipt of all absentee ballots, both overseas military and domestic. Lawyers for Democrat Scott Murphy argued that although the elections commissioners in the 10-county district must wait until April 14 to count military ballots, that is no reason not to start counting the other ballots Wednesday, the day after they are due. Judge James Brands agreed with Murphy's legal team. Brands wrote in his decision: 'While this court agrees with counsel that there should be no rush in this process to the detriment of a fair and accurate account, it occurs to this court that both the candidates and the constituency they serve are entitled to a prompt resolution of this contested election which apparently is in a deadlock with each candidate having the same number of votes.'"

Ny-20: Absentee Ballots Are Hard To Predict

Posted Apr 06, 2009 at 1:39 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

Michael Barone, in an excellent analysis of the absentee ballots already received (but still uncounted) in the NY-20 special election, concludes that there are contradictory signs, one pointing to a slight Democratic advantage, the other a slight Republican tilt: "Of those 5,995 votes, 48 percent were cast by registered Republicans, 36 percent were cast by registered Democrats and 16 percent by others. That's a 12 percent Republican advantage, a little less than the 15 percent advantage Republicans have in total party identification. It suggests to me a pretty good Democratic absentee voter drive, since registered Democrats in an Upstate New York district are likelier to be behavioral Democrats than registered Republicans are to be behavioral Republicans. (Reasons: a lot of people register Republican to vote in legislative and local primaries in jurisdictions which are now or have been heavily Republican in general elections; some people may have registered as Republicans years ago out of conviction but lately have been voting Democratic, which is in line with the Democratic trend over the last decade or so in Upstate New York)."

Barone concludes: "Thus this absentee electorate could be a little more Democratic than the voters who voted on election day. However, it's also possible that an effective Republican absentee voter drive targeted those registered Republicans who also indicate that they are behavioral Republicans; if I were setting up an absentee voter drive that's what I'd aim at doing. So this absentee electorate could be a little more Republican than the electorate as a whole. There's no real way to know until the votes are counted."

One factor to consider, as PollTrack observes, is that more absentee ballots were returned from registered Republicans than Democrats. As Tedisco lead inches every so slightly upward in the re-cancassing state, will these votes put him over the top? Or will many of these GOP voters break from their party to vote for Murphy? The outcome of NY-20 ultimately rests on the question of how registered Republicans will break in absentee voting. 

NY-20 Now Tied At 77,225 Votes Each For Tedisco & Murphy

Posted Apr 03, 2009 at 8:58 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

Incredibly, with a number of counties yet to re-canvass, the two candidates are now tied: "As counties continue a routine recount of voting machine results, the two candidates in the 20th Congressional District race are locked in a dead heat. James Tedisco and Scott Murphy have 77,225 votes each as of this afternoon, said John Conklin, spokesman for the state Board of Elections. Warren, Rensselaer, Otsego, Dutchess and Delaware counties have finished recanvassing their voting machines, and the updated number reflects their new totals. The other five counties, which includes Saratoga County, have not finished recounting the results, so the total is likely to change in the coming days, Conklin said." PollTrack notes gain that saratoga County--the largest in the district--is also vastly Republican in registration, so it's unclear how its re-canvassing will effect the outcome. Stay tuned.

NY-20: Republican Tedisco Takes The Lead

Posted Apr 02, 2009 at 3:23 PM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

The PolitickerNY.com reports that Democrat Scott Murphy's lead has evaporated. As voting machines are re-canvassed in New York's 20th Congressional District, Republican Jim Tedisco has picked up 37 votes, evaporating Democrat Scott Murphy's lead. Republican Tedisco now leads by 12 votes, 77,236 to 77,224. Yesterday, Tedisco trailed by 25 votes after a recanvass in Columbia County. Elections workers in Rensselaer, Dutchess, Columbia and Otsego counties looked over their tallies today. Other counties will do so in the coming days. A possible problem for Murphy: Saratoga County--the largest in the 20th CD one of the most Republican by registration (Tedisco led by 8% in the county on Election Night) has yet to re-canvass their tallies.

Associated Press: NY-20 Too-Close-To-Call

Posted Mar 31, 2009 at 3:08 PM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

It's official: with 100% of precincts reporting in NY-20, the race is tied at 50% (Democrat Murphy leads by a scant 65 votes) and is Too-Close-To-Call according to the Associated Press. AP reports: "There are at least 6,000 and possibly as many as 10,000 absentee ballots that will not be included in the results for at least a week." Since the Board of Elections has agreed to continue counting overseas absentee ballots until April 13--many of these from active duty military--this race may not be settled for a while.At this point, it is difficult to gauge the effect of these absentee votes. With some coming from military members (lean Republican), other from voters with second homes in New York City (lean Democrat), and still others from elderly residents (lean Republican), it's hard to create a demographic profile for these remaining ballots.


Here's the AP final tally:

County Precincts Scott Murphy
(Dem)
James Tedisco
(GOP)
Total 610/610 77,344
50%
77,279
50%
Columbia 58/58 8,576
56%
6,653
44%
Delaware 49/49 3,344
50%
3,370
50%
Dutchess 72/72 9,569
52%
8,988
48%
Essex 15/15 1,269
55%
1,026
45%
Greene 36/36 4,409
45%
5,460
55%
Otsego 16/16 1,001
49%
1,052
51%
Rensselaer 54/54 7,576
49%
8,035
51%
Saratoga 188/188 25,837
46%
30,247
54%
Warren 70/70 8,680
56%
6,890
44%
Washington 52/52 7,083
56%
5,558
44%

NY-20: It's Ending In A Tie

Posted Mar 31, 2009 at 2:26 PM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

With one precinct left, Murphy now leads by 80 votes. This race will need to be decided by absentee ballots.

The AP tally:

 

County Precincts Scott Murphy
(Dem)
James Tedisco
(GOP)
Total 609/610 77,208
50%
77,127
50%
Columbia 58/58 8,576
56%
6,653
44%
Delaware 49/49 3,344
50%
3,370
50%
Dutchess 72/72 9,569
52%
8,988
48%
Essex 15/15 1,269
55%
1,026
45%
Greene 36/36 4,409
45%
5,460
55%
Otsego 16/16 1,001
49%
1,052
51%
Rensselaer 54/54 7,576
49%
8,035
51%
Saratoga 187/188 25,701
46%
30,095
54%
Warren 70/70 8,680
56%
6,890
44%
Washington 52/52 7,083
56%
5,558
44%

NY-20 It Now Looks Like It's Too Close To Call, A Tie In Fact

Posted Mar 31, 2009 at 2:14 PM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

With Tedisco's lead actually narrowing in once solidly Republican Saratoga County, it's starting to look like a very close election, one perhaps impossible to call until the 6,000 or so absentee and military ballots are counted. The evening may well end up without a winner.

The latest from AP:

County Precincts Scott Murphy
(Dem)
James Tedisco
(GOP)
Total 591/610 74,221
50%
74,251
50%
Columbia 50/58 7,415
56%
5,804
44%
Delaware 49/49 3,344
50%
3,370
50%
Dutchess 72/72 9,569
52%
8,988
48%
Essex 15/15 1,269
55%
1,026
45%
Greene 36/36 4,409
45%
5,460
55%
Otsego 16/16 1,001
49%
1,052
51%
Rensselaer 54/54 7,576
49%
8,035
51%
Saratoga 177/188 24,127
46%
28,288
54%
Warren 70/70 8,680
56%
6,890
44%
Washington 52/52 6,831
56%
5,338
44%

 

Early Results NY-20: Tedisco Leads But It's Very Close

Posted Mar 31, 2009 at 1:28 PM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

Early results from the Associated Press suggest it could be a long night. The results are at this very early stage, very close:

County Precincts Scott Murphy
(Dem)
James Tedisco
(GOP)
Total 125/610 13,358
49%
14,151
51%
Columbia 0/58 0
0%
0
0%
Delaware 0/49 0
0%
0
0%
Dutchess 0/72 0
0%
0
0%
Essex 5/15 441
58%
321
42%
Greene 13/36 1,494
43%
1,982
57%
Otsego 6/16 332
45%
411
55%
Rensselaer 11/54 1,457
48%
1,565
52%
Saratoga 34/188 3,875
42%
5,366
58%
Warren 56/70 5,759
56%
4,506
44%
Washington 0/52 0
0%
0
0%

NY-20: Absentee Ballots Numerous

Posted Mar 31, 2009 at 11:30 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

According to the Albany Times Union, "those who are hoping to avoid a late night, better hope that the 20th Congressional race has at least a good 6,000 vote margin. As of yesterday, there were 5,907 absentee ballots received by the state Board of Elections, according to spokesman Bob Brehm. Absentee ballots must be postmarked by yesterday, March 30 and received within 7 days (for regular absentee ballots) or 13 days (for military/ overseas ballots)." This could be a long night . . . or not.

NY-20: Associated Press Reporting Light Turnout

Posted Mar 31, 2009 at 10:47 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

The Associated Press is reporting generally light turnout in today's special election to fill the house seat vacated by Kirten Gillibrand's in New York's 20th CD: "Volunteers knocked on doors and surrogates fired off e-mails Tuesday afternoon amid reports of light turnout in a special congressional election focused on President Barack Obama and his economic stimulus plan.Voters who did show up admitted to being exhausted by the torrent of negative ads from Republican Jim Tedisco and Democrat Scott Murphy . . . Polling places and local election boards reported light turnout throughout the day, not unusual in a special election in which there are no statewide offices or big names on the ballot to attract more casual voters." A truly light turnout could be good news in a congressional district with a decided Republican advantage in registration.

NY-20: Turnout High In One Republican County

Posted Mar 31, 2009 at 7:53 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

Politico reports that the turnout is high in one large Republican county in the 20th Congressinal District, but that the meaning of the upswing may be unclear: "Just finished visiting three precincts in Saratoga County, where turnout is well above expectations. Election officials at the three Saratoga Springs precincts said they expected about 35 percent of registered voters to cast ballots by the time polls close at 9:00 EST. On paper, that’s encouraging news for Republican Jim Tedisco because Saratoga County has traditionally been a Republican stronghold.  Tedisco also represents parts of the county in his statewide Assembly seat. But the voting patterns of the county have changed dramatically in recent years – Democrat Kirsten Gillibrand won 59 percent of the county vote last year, and President Obama carried the county with 51 percent of the vote."

Contradictory Indications In NY-20

Posted Mar 31, 2009 at 7:27 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

For what its worth, local observers in Chatham, New York, report on the Legislative Gazette that more Republicans appear to be voting in one representative precinct but that Democrat Scott Murphy edges Republican Jim Tedisco in an informal "exit poll" of 22 voters leaving the voting station. "In Chatham, Columbia County, a part of the 20th, voters seemed to be favoring Murphy over Tedisco, but not by a large margin." The report continues: "Of the 22 voters surveyed in Chatham, 14 people voted for Murphy and eight chose Tedisco" Yet, one poll worker sees an advatange for the Republican: "After poll watching it looks like more Republicans are out." These observations, of course, are informal, unscientific, and contradictory, so PollTrack, for now, takes them with a grain of salt. But report them we must.

Full Coverage of NY-20: Spread The Word

Posted Mar 31, 2009 at 5:42 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

PollTrack is one of the few websites offering fresh reporting on today's special election in New York's 20th Congressional District. If you like what you are reading, SPREAD THE WORD. We'll have reports from our political director, Maurice Berger (who is also a part-time resident of the 20th Congressional District) throughout the day--both on our Presidential and Writing on the Wall Blog pages. These reports should satisfy political junkies as well as anyone interested in the NY-20 race, its outcome, and its national implications.

NY-20: Voting Brisk

Posted Mar 31, 2009 at 4:01 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

PollTrack has just received several eyewitness reports about voting in today's special election in New York's 20th congressional district. While voting is not heavy, it also appears to be greater than the usual historically low turnout in off-year or special elections. One voter described activity as brisk in her precinct in Upstate Chatham. With millions spent on the race and a cavalcade of publicity and local and national advertising and press, the NY-20 contest may well bring out more voters than the norm. Indeed, the president himself has gotten into the act, attempting to increase turnout, sending supporters a last-minute pitch Monday night. In an e-mail sent out via the Democratic National Committee's Organizing For America grassroots effort, the president urged the party's voters to head to the polls to vote for venture capitalist Scott Murphy. "I need you to go vote . . . It's going to be a very close race, and your vote could make all the difference," he wrote.

 

NY-20: Internal Democratic Poll Shows Murphy Ahead By Two

Posted Mar 29, 2009 at 1:49 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

 

According to The Hill, a new poll by the Democratic National Congressional Committee shows the Democrat Scott Murphy leading Republican Jim Tedisco in the NY-20 special election to fill the house seat vacated by Kirsten Gillibrand. Democrat Scott Murphy leads Republican state Assemblyman Jim Tedisco by two percentage points. The poll, obtained from a Democratic source, shows Murphy leading Tedisco 43% to 41%. The Hill notes: "DCCC's poll was taken earlier this week, before the Siena College poll released Friday that showed Murphy leading Tedisco by four percentage points, 47% to 43%." An internal Republican National Congressional Committee poll lte last week also showed Murphy leading. Is the momentum with the Democrat? PollTrack thinks it's hard to gauge at this point. The district has a significant advantage in Republican registration, an important factor in special elections that tend to draw only the party faithful. In no poll does Murphy or Tedisco break the 50% mark. And all polls thus far indicate a large undecided bloc. In the end, PollTrack believes the election remains too-close-to-call and that its outcome will likely depend on turnout.

NY-20 Video: Tedisco (r) & Murphy (d) Up Close

Posted Mar 28, 2009 at 2:14 PM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

The Democratic and Republican candidates in the race to replace Kirsten Gillibrand in New York's 20th Congressional District sat down with the editorial board of a local newspaper--The Saratogian (Saratoga Springs)--for "roughly an hour each and were asked a variety of questions, ranging from the federal stimulus plan, diversification of the district's economy, ways to reduce property taxes and local budgets, and their views on government and small business." The videos provide a rare opportunity to view the candidates in an intimate setting, casually answering questions of importance to the district. For these videos, click here.

Republican Tedisco Decries Scott Murphy's Opposition To The Death Penalty In A NY-20 Attack Ad

Posted Mar 27, 2009 at 4:06 PM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

The campaign of Republican Jim Tedisco, now behind by four points in the latest survey of voters in the hotly contested NY-20 race, has launched a new attack ad, one that links Democrat Scott Murphy to the tragedy of 9/11 because of his opposition to the death penalty, even in cases of terrorism. Will the ad resonate with voters in a predominantly Republican district or will it backfire? (The Siena Poll released this morning suggests that voters see the Tedisco campaign as the more negative and angry, a view partly responsible for the Republican's net drop of 8% over the past two weeks). Here is the new advertisement:

NY-20 Campaign Ads Hit Airways in Upstate New York

Posted Mar 27, 2009 at 6:15 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

The Democratic and Republican parties are now running ads in the highly competitive NY-20 race to fill the congressional seat vacated by Kirsten Gillibrand when she was appointed to replace outgoing NY US Senator and now Secretary of State, Hillary Clinton.

 

Here are the ads:

 

DEMOCRATIC NATIONAL COMMITTEE For Scott Murphy:


 

REPUBLICAN CAMPAIGN AD for Jim Tedisco:

 

 

 

Democrat Murphy Takes The Lead In NY-20

Posted Mar 27, 2009 at 2:06 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

In the dramatic race to fill the seat vacated by New York US Senator Kirstien Gillibrand, a new Siena Institute Poll reports that the Democrat, Scott Murphy has erased Republican Jim Tidesco's lead. As the special election enters the final weekend, Murphy has reversed a four-point deficit and turned it into a four-point lead over Republican Assembly Minority Leader James Tedisco. Murphy leads 47%-43%, having trailed two weeks ago by a 45%-41%. One reason for Murphy's imporovement: Tedisco’s campaign is viewed by voters as more negative by a 44%-25% margin, while Murphy’s campaign is seen as more positive. “While the percentage of likely voters supporting Murphy has risen about three points per week for the last four weeks, the percentage supporting Tedisco has dropped three points. In the last four weeks, Murphy turned a 12-point deficit into a four-point lead,” said Steven Greenberg, spokesman for the Siena New York Poll. Still, the district leans Republican. With GOP registration outnumbering Democratic, the race could come down to turnout. Perhaps somewhat ominiously for the Democrat, Siena reports that "regardless of who they are supporting, by a 45% to 35% margin, voters think Tedisco will win the election." Stay tuned for PollTrack updates.

It's Down To The Wire In NY-20 Congressional Race

Posted Mar 26, 2009 at 2:29 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

The NY-20 congressional race to fill the seat vacated by US Senator Kirsten Gillibrand has drawn down to a virtual tie according two three news polls. A Republican National Committee poll gives the GOP candidate, Jim Tedisco, a three-point lead over Democrat Scott Murphy in the special election to be held next Tuesday. A National Republican Congressional Committee survey actually shows the Democrat leading by two points, and Tedisco's own internal polling shows him leading by just one point. PollTrack's averaging of the three polls suggests the race is too-close-to-call, a virtual tie.

Democrat Governor Corzine Falls Further Behind In New Jersey

Posted Mar 18, 2009 at 1:12 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

According to a Quinnipiac University Poll, Democratic incumbent Jon Corzine has falling further behind his hypothetical Republican challenger in New Jersey's 2009 Governor's race. Republican Christopher Christie leads Corzine 46% to 37%, "even though 61 percent of voters don't know enough about the former U.S. Attorney to form an opinion of him." Taken before Corzine's Draconian budget was released, his numbers could be descend even more in the next few weeks. Rasmussen reports an even bigger deficit for Corzine, indicating that he has has now fallen behind Republican challenger Christopher J. Christie by 15 points – 49% to 34%. (7% prefer some other candidate, and 10% are undecided.)

Race in NY-20 To Replace Gillibrand Grows Even Closer

Posted Mar 13, 2009 at 1:57 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

The race to replace US Senator Kristin Gillibrand in New York's 20th Congressional district has grown even closer. Democrat Scott Murphy has reduced Republican James Tedisco's once 12% lead to just 4 points, according to a new Siena Research Institute poll. Tedisco now leads the race 45% to 41%. Of note: "While two weeks ago, voters said Tedisco would do a better job than Murphy representing them on six issues, Murphy now leads on two of those issues, including the most important issue for 20th C.D. voters: the economy."

NJ Democratic Governor In Trouble in 2009 Reelection Campaign

Posted Mar 05, 2009 at 1:04 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

New Jersey Democratic Governor Jon Corzine is in serious trouble in his reelection bid this year. According to a Fairleigh Dickenson University Poll, "40% of voters approve of the job Corzine is doing while 46% disapprove--a reversal from January when 46% approved and 40% disapproved. Among Democrats, 58% approve and 28% disapprove with 14% unsure, a 2-to-1 margin in the governor’s favor, but independents disapprove by 2-to-1 and Republicans disapprove by 3-to-1.  More ominous is that among public employee households, 31% approve while 56% disapprove. That compares to an even split among all other households, 43%-44%." Even more ominous for Corzine: "In a trial heat against the leading Republican contender, Corzine trails former U.S. Attorney Chris Christie by 32%-41%.  In that heat, 73% of Republicans line up behind Christie, while just 55% of Democrats line up behind Corzine."

Reublican Favored To Replace Democrat Gillibrand In House

Posted Mar 03, 2009 at 1:25 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

A new poll by the Siena (College) Research Institute reports that with nearly five weeks to go until the special election in the 20th C.D., Republican Assembly Minority Leader James Tedisco has a 46-34 percent lead over Democrat Scott Murphy in the race for Kristine Gillibrand's former House seat: "Tedisco scores better on six specific issues, although his lead over Murphy on five issues – including the economy, the most important issue voters want their next Member of Congress to address – is in single digits. Senator Gillibrand, who represented the district for more than two years, up until five weeks ago, enjoys strong support from voters of all parties."

Republicans Favored in 2009 Governor's VA Governor's Race

Posted Feb 09, 2009 at 2:16 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

According to a Rasmussen Reports survey, the Republicans appear to have an advantage in the upcoming 2009 Virginia Governor's race: "Republican Attorney General Robert F. McDonnell has a three-to-nine point lead against three hopefuls for the Democratic nomination in this year’s closely-watched Virginia gubernatorial contest . . . the lone Republican gubernatorial candidate topping his best-known opponent, Terry McAuliffe, by seven points, 42% to 35%. In December, he held a five-point edge over McAuliffe, a longtime Clinton confidant, major Democratic fund-raiser and former national party chairman. McDonnell is even further ahead of Rep. R. Creigh Deeds of Bath County – 39% to 30%. The two men were tied two months ago. Brian J. Moran, a former state delegate from Alexandria, led McDonnell by four points in the earlier survey but now trails by three, 39% to 36%."

Democrat Jon Corzine In Trouble IN 2009 NJ Governors Race

Posted Feb 05, 2009 at 2:07 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

A new Quinnipiac University poll suggests that Democratic Governor is falling behind in his reelection race: Corzine is  "slipping behind former U.S. Attorney Christopher Christie, the front-runner for the Republican nomination, though the challenger also was far from the 50% mark. Christie led Corzine by 44% to 38% . . . with 16% voicing no opinion. The 6%-point margin in the hypothetical matchup is an exact reversal from that in a Nov. 19 Quinnipiac poll, which showed Corzine up by 42% to 36%."

   

New York City Voters High On Mayor Bloomberg

Posted Jan 28, 2009 at 1:31 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

According to a Quinnipiac University poll, New York City voters continue to give Mayor Michael Bloomberg high marks for his performance. They are also happy to reelect him to a third term: Bloomberg holds double-digit leads over likely Democratic challengers. He's leads NYC Controller William Thompson (D), 50% to 34%, and beats Rep. Anthony Weiner (D-NY), 50% to 35%. New York voters approve of the job Bloomberg is doing by a 69% to 25% margin. In a Democratic primary, Weiner edges Thompson, 30% to 23% with 47% undecided. Another survey, by the local TV station, New York 1, suggests a closer race, however: "would win less than 50% of the vote against his two strongest Democratic opponents, a new poll says - and one of them, Rep. Anthony Weiner is 'within striking distance' of toppling the two-term incumbent . . . Bloomberg would get 43% of the vote against 36% for Weiner (D-Brooklyn-Queens). Running against Controller William Thompson, Bloomberg would win 45% to Thompson's 32%."

NJ Democratic Governor May Be In Trouble

Posted Jan 19, 2009 at 1:48 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

One major race in 2009 with a cloudy future: New Jersey Governor. With popular former U.S. Attorney Chris Christe deciding to seek the Republican nomination run against Democratic Gov. Corzine,  the outcome of the matchup is far from certain. A Monmouth University/Gannett New Jersey poll conducted last week reports that Corzine maintains a "statistically insignificant" 2% lead--38% to 36%--over Christie, with 2% preferring another candidate, 4% not intending to vote, and 21% undecided. "If voters are asked which way they'd come down between Corzine and a Republican other than Christie, Corzine runs ahead 36% to 32% with 18% undecided and 12% saying it depends who the Republican was