According to polling analysis this morning, it appears that Democrat Bennet in Colorado and Democrat Murray in Washington have won their respective US Senate contests.

Final US Senate Distribution of Power, as of this morning: Democrats 53 seats, Republicans 47 seats.

In the Florida Governor's Race, it appears that Republic Scott has won.

It's 1:30 in the East. I'd had a long day, so I'm signing off. I will resume analysis tomorrow morning. Thanks for tuning in and for being patient. We wound up the evening with all of the big questions answered, and most of the smaller ones, too.

With Harry Reid projected to win reelection to the US Senate in Nevada, PollTrack projects that the Democrats will maintain control of the US Senate.

Another GOP pick up in the US Senate: Illinois, where Kirk wins.

. . . wins gubernatorial race in California.

Republican Governor Jan Brewer wins reelection in Arizona.

The Ohio Governor's race has been called for Republican Kasich.

Democrat Boxer wins over Republican Fiorina in the California race for US Senate.

With a GOP pick up for Governor in PA, it now appears that the US Senate seat will also go to the Republicans. Republican Toomey defeats Democrat Sestak, 51% to 49%. 

Exit Polls out of CA and WA suggest strong showings for Jerry Brown for CA Gov, Barbara Boxer for CA US Sen and Patty Murray for WA US Senate. A win by Boxer and Murray would make a GOP take over of the US Senate virtually impossible. Stay tuned.

A big gubernatorial win for Democrats in a key swing state--Colorado: John Hickenloper wins.

Republican Ron Johnson defeats Democratic incumbent US Senator Russ Feingold in Wisconsin.

The GOP has picked up three Governor's seats:

New Mexico: Martinez, REP

Pennsylvania: Corbett, REP

Michigan: Synder, REP

The GOP also holds one seat in South Carolina: Halley

As many Democratic held seats change hands in the US House, a surprising number of US Senate races remain competitive for Democrats: races in Pennsylvania, Nevada, Colorado, Illinois remain too close to call. Republican candidates were in the lead in all of these races in pre-election polling for these states. This may could be a long evening.

MA Gov: Patrick, DEM

MD Gov: O'Malley, DEM

AZ US Senate: McCain, REP

IA: Gralley, REP

All as expected.

Republican Vitter wins reelection to US Senate in Louisiana, Republican Roy Blunt wins open US Senate race in Missouri.Both on target for GOP, both predicted by PollTrack.

A problem for Democrats in the House--and potentially for the President's reelection--is not the enthusiasm of GOP voters (which was high). The bigger problem is the dramatic shift of Independent voters, who gave Obama a decisive edge in 2008. This year, according to Exit Polls, Independent voters broke for Republican House candidates by a widely margin: 55% to 40% for the Democrats, a figure in line with the 1994 midterms, in which Republicans made substantial gains. The Democrats will need to win these voters back in order to be competitive in 2012.

Early numbers and exit poll analysis suggest a substantial GOP pick up in the US House--between 55 and 60 seats now possible, if not likely. It now appears almost certain that the Democrats will loose control of the House.

Latest Projected Winners;

New York: Gov-Cuomo DEM, US Sen-Gillibrand DEM, US Sen-Schumer DEM

SD Senate: Thune GOP

ND: Hoeven GOP (REP Pickup)

TX: Perry, GOP, Gov

Democrat Perriello looses to Republican Hurt in Virginia US House race. Another key GOP pick up, another sign of impending Republican take over. US Senate remains in play, but Democrats may soon have their majority locked up.

Key loses for Democrats in US House races in Indiana and Virginia. A GOP takeover of house is looking increasingly likely.

Congressman Alan Grayson has lost his reelection race in Florida. Bad news for the Democrats, re: keeping control of the House.

. . . stays in Democratic hands, as state Attorney General Richard Blumenthal defeats GOP candidate Linda McMahon. A critical seat for the Democrats, re: control of the US Senate.

A projection in Arkansas. A pick up for the GOP in the US Senate race as Blanch Lincoln is defeated by Republican Boozman.

In the gubernatorial race, the Democrats stay put with the reelection of Beebe.

A few key races called:

New Hamphire US Senate: Ayotte wins for the GOP

Delaware US Senate: Chris Coons Wins for the Democrat

Florida: Marco Rubio Wins for the GOP

The three races are on target for their respective parties. No upsets. PollTrack correctly picked all three

Ohio goes to Rob Portman, the Republican US Senate candidate. Seat remains GOP. But does his wide margin of victory bode poor for incumbent Democratic Governor Strickland's reelection chances. That race appears closer, with GOP challenger Kasich leading in the polls going into Election Day.

Republican GOP candidate wins in Kentucky. A key U.S. seat for the GOP.

Other races called, but also predicted: GOP takes Democratic seat in Indiana US Senate. Jim Demint, GOP US Senator from South Carolina wins reelection. Democratic US Senator Leahy wins reelection in Vermont.

BIG win for the GOP in Kentucky.

One interesting tidbit from national Exit Polls: voters seem to dislike Republicans as much as Democrats in congress. Yet, with the Democrats controlling both houses--and the presidency--they are the party perceived by voters as "in power." Thus, anti-incumbent mood could hurt Democrats far more than Republicans.

Early analysis in the Kentucky US Senate race suggest that Republican candidate, and Tea Party favorite, Rand Paul is doing well in his race against Democrat Jack Conway. This is a key race for the GOP. Without Kentucky they have no hope of taking back the Senate. At this point, it looks like they'll meet this threshold, perhaps handily.

Another problem for the Democrats, according to just released Exit Polls: a wide majority of voters believe the nation is headed on the wrong track. Stay tuned.

Preliminary data is starting to trickle in via national exit polls. Three observation:

[1] President Obama's approval number with today's voters is 45%.

[2] The vast majority of respondents--80%--are concerned about the future of the nation's economy.

[3] Approximately 40% of voters today say they are Tea Party sympathizers.

These numbers may bode poorly for the Democrats. But further analysis of the raw data reported by AP may be necessary to make sure these numbers are accurate. Item 3 should be of greatest concern for Democrats, suggesting a sharp conservative, anti-Washington tilt to the electorate. Right now, these numbers suggest a strong showing for the GOP.

Hello All!

I will now begin blogging about Election 2010, analyzing the results as the come in. Two things: BE PATIENT. Substantive results may not start rolling in until well after 8:00 PM, EST. Unless a race is a blowout, it will not be called solely on Exit Poll data. Thus, a substantial portion of the ACTUAL vote must come in before many races--particularly competitive ones--can be called.

So stay tuned. Thanks!

Likely/Safe GOP: AR, IN, LA, AL, AZ, GA, IA, ID, KS, ND, OH, OK, SC, SD, UT

Predicted Balance of Power: REP-30 TCTC-1 DEM-18 IND-1

California: Leaning Democrat DEM+6.4%

Likely/Safe Democrat: AR, MD, NH, NY

Likely/Safe Republican: AK, AZ, GA, IA, ME, MI, NM, NV, OK, PA,  SC, TX, WI

Predicted Balance of Power: REP-29 TCTC-2 DEM-18 IND-1

California: Leaning Democrat DEM+6.4%

Likely/Safe Democrat: AR, MD, NH, NY

Likely/Safe Republican: AK, AZ, GA, IA, ME, MI, NM, NV, OK, PA,  SC, TX, WI

Likely/Safe GOP: AR, IN, LA, AL, AZ, GA, IA, ID, KS, ND, OH, OK, SC, SD, UT

Predicted Balance of Power: REP-29 TCTC-4 DEM-16 IND-1

California: Leaning Democrat DEM+6.4%

Likely/Safe Democrat: AR, MD, NH, NY

*West Virginia: Leaning Democrat Too-Close-To-Call DEM +4.5%

Likely/Safe GOP: AR, IN, LA, AL, AZ, GA, IA, ID, KS, ND, OH, OK, SC, SD, UT

Predicted Balance of Power: REP-28 TCTC-6 DEM-15 IND-1

California: Leaning Democrat 

*West Virginia: Too-Close-To-Call (From Leaning Democrat) DEM +4.5%

Likely/Safe GOP: AR, IN, LA, AL, AZ, GA, IA, ID, KS, ND, OH, OK, SC, SD, UT

Predicted Balance of Power: REP-28 TCTC-5 DEM-16 IND-1

California: Leaning Democrat 

West Virginia: Leaning Democrat DEM +4.8%

Likely/Safe GOP: AR, IN, LA, AL, AZ, GA, IA, ID, KS, ND, OH, OK, SC, SD, UT

*West Virginia: Leaning Democrat (from Too-Close-To-Call) DEM +4.8%

Likely/Safe GOP: AR, IN, LA, AL, AZ, GA, IA, ID, KS, ND, OH, OK, SC, SD, UT

Predicted Balance of Power: REP-28 TCTC-6 DEM-16

Predicted Balance of Power: REP-28 TCTC-6 DEM-16

West Virginia: Too-Close-To-Call DEM +2.0%

Likely/Safe GOP: AR, IN, LA, AL, AZ, GA, IA, ID, KS, ND, OH, OK, SC, SD, UT

West Virginia: Too-Close-To-Call DEM +2.0%

Likely/Safe GOP: AR, IN, LA, AL, AZ, GA, IA, ID, KS, ND, OH, OK, SC, SD, UT

Here are the latest polls for competitive U.S. Senate Races:

CALIFORNIA: Los Angeles Times/USC Democratic U.S. Sen. Barbara Boxer leads republican Carly Fiorina, 50% to 42%.

COLORADO: SurveyUSA Democratic U.S. Sen. Michael Bennet is tied with Republican Ken Buck at 47% each;  Public Policy Polling Bennet tied with Buck at 47%.

FLORIDA: St. Petersburg Times/Miami Herald Republican Marco Rubio leads Independent candidate, Gov. Charlie Crist, 41% to 26%, with Democratic Rep. Kendrick Meek at 20%.

ILLINOIS: Chicago Tribune/WGN GOP Rep. Mark Kirk leads Democrat Alexi Giannoulias, 44% to 41%

MISSOURI: Mason-Dixon Republican Roy Blunt leads Democrat Robin Carnahan, 49% to 40%.

PENNSYLVANIA: Morning Call/Muhlenberg College Republican Pat Toomey leads Democratic Rep. Joe Sestak, 47% to 42%.

WEST VIRGINIA: Public Policy Polling Democratic Gov. Joe Manchin leads Republican John Raese, 50% to 44%.

Predicted Balance of Power: REP-28 TCTC-5 DEM-17

Here are the latest polls in the close races for governor:

CALIFORNIA: Los Angeles Times/USC Democrat Jerry Brown leads Republican Meg Whitman, 52% to 39%.

COLORADO: SurveyUSA Democrat John Hickenlooper leads Constitution Party candidate Tom Tancredo, 49% to 39%, with Republican Dan Maes at 9%.

FLORIDA: St. Petersburg Times/Miami Herald Republican Rick Scott leads Democrat Alex Sink, 44% to 41%.

ILLINOIS: Mason-Dixon Republican Bill Brady's leads Democratic Gov. Pat Quinn, 44% to 40%.

MARYLAND: Baltimore Sun Democratic Gov. Martin O'Malley leads Republican Bob Ehrlich, 52% to 38%.

MASSACHUSETTS: Boston Globe Democratic Gov. Deval Patrick leads Republican Charles Baker, 43% to 39%, with independent Timothy Cahill at 8% and Green-Rainbow candidate Jill Stein at 2%.

MINNESOTA: Star Tribune Minnesota Democrat Mark Dayton leads Republican Tom Emmer, 41% to 34%, with Independent Tom Horner at 13%.

NORTH CAROLINA: Insider Advantage Republican Nikki Haley leads Democrat Vincent Sheheen, 51% to 37%.

OHIO: Dayton Daily News/Ohio Newspaper Republican John Kasich leads Democratic Gov. Ted Strickland, 49% to 47%.

Here are the latest polls in competitive races for governor:

CALIFORNIA: SurveyUSA Democrat Jerry Brown leads Republican Meg Whitman, 47% to 40%; Public Policy Institute of California Brown leads Whitman, 44% to 36%.

COLORADO: Fox News Democrat John Hickenlooper leads Independent Tom Tancredo, 45% to 40%; Reuters/Ipsos Hickenlooper leads Tancredo, 46% to 35%, with GOP candidate Maes at 14%.

GEORGIA: InsiderAdvantage Republican Nathan Deal leads Democrat Roy Barnes, 45% to 40%.

ILLINOIS: Public Policy Polling Republican Bill Brady leads Democratic Gov. Pat Quinn, 42% to 41%.

MARYLAND: Gonzales Research Democratic Gov. Martin O'Malley leads former GOP Gov. Bob Ehrlich, 47% to 42%.

NEW YORK: Siena Democrat Andrew Cuomo leads Republican Carl Paladino, 63% to 26%.

NORTH CAROLINA: Rasmussen Republican Nikki Haley leads Democrat Vincent Sheheen, 47% to 38%.

OHIO: CNN/Time/Opinion Research Democratic Gov. Ted Strickland leads John Kasich, 48% to 47%; Quinnipiac Republican John Kasich leads Democratic Gov. Ted Strickland, 51% to 41%.

OREGON: DailyKos/Public Policy Polling Democrat John Kitzhaber leads Chris Dudley, 48% to 47%.

 Predicted Balance of Power: DEM-48 TCTC-9 REP-43

Likely/Safe GOP: AR, IN, LA, AL, AZ, GA, IA, ID, KS, ND, OH, OK, SC, SD, UT

Predicted Balance of Power: REP-28 TCTC-6 DEM-16

 Predicted Balance of Power: DEM-48 TCTC-8 REP-44

Likely/Safe GOP: AR, IN, LA, AL, AZ, GA, IA, ID, KS, ND, OH, OK, SC, SD, UT strong>

Predicted Balance of Power: REP-27 TCTC-7 DEM-16

Here are the latest polls in competitive U.S. Senate races:

CALIFORNIA: Reuters/Ipsos Democratic U.S. Sen. Barbara Boxer just edges out Republican Carly Fiorina, 46% to 45%.

COLORADO: Rasmussen Republican Ken Buck leads Democratic Sen. Michael Bennet, 47% to 45%.

WASHINGTON: Washington Poll Democratic U.S. Sen. Patty Murray leads Republican Dino Rossi, 50% to 42%.

Here are the latest polls in competitive gubernatorial races:

CALIFORNIA: Reuters/Ipsos Democrat Jerry Brown leads Republican Meg Whitman, 48% to 44%. Rasmussen reports Democrat Jerry Brown leading Meg Whitman, 50% to 44%.

COLORADO: Rasmussen Democrat John Hickenlooper leads IndependentTom Tancredo, 42% to 38%, with Republican Dan Maes at 12%.

FLORIDA: Sunshine State News Democrat Alex Sink leads Republican Rick Scott, 48% to 45%.

NEW MEXICO: SurveyUSA Republican Susana Martinez leads Democrat Diane Denish, 54% to 42%.

OHIO: Ohio Poll Republican John Kasich leads Democratic Gov. Ted Strickland, 51% to 43% with 6% undecided.

OREGON: SurveyUSA Democrat John Kitzhaber edges Republican Chris Dudley, 46% to 45%.

VERMONT: Vermont Public Radio Republican Brian Dubie leads Democrat Peter Shumlin, 44% to 43%.

Predicted Balance of Power: REP-27 TCTC-7 DEM-16

More polling in competitive US Senate Races:

FLORIDA: Quinnipiac Republican Marco Rubio swamps Independent Gov. Charlie Crist, 44% to 30%, with Democratic Rep. Kendrick Meek at 22%.

NEVADA: Suffolk University Democratic US Sen. Harry Reid edges Republican Sharron Angle, 46% to 43%. Rasmussen Angle leads Reid, 49% to 48%.

WASHINGTON: CNN/Time/Opinion Research Democratic Sen. Patty Murray leads Republican Dino Rossi, 51% to 43%.

WEST VIRGINIA: Rasmussen Democratic Gov. Joe Manchin trails Republican John Raese, 49% to 46%,\.

WISCONSIN: CNN/Time/Opinion Research Republican Ron Johnson leads Democratic Sen. Russ Feingold, 52% to 44%.

Predicted Balance of Power: REP-28 TCTC-5 DEM-17

Here's a recap of the latest polls in some of the most competitive US Senate races:

ALASKA: DailyKos/Public Policy Polling Republican Joe Miller just edges write-in hopeful and incumbent GOP US Senator Lisa Murkowski, 35% to 33%. Democrat Scott McAdams is at 26%.

CONNECTICUT: Fox News Democrat Richard Blumenthal leads Republican Linda McMahon, 49% to 43%.

DELAWARE: Monmouth University Democrat Chris Coons holds a huge lead over Republican Christine O'Donnell, 57% to 38%.

ILLINOIS: Rasmussen Democrat Alexi Giannoulias leads GOP Rep. Mark Kirk, 44% to 43%, with Green Party candidate LeAlan Jones polling at 4%.

NEVADA: Fox News Republican Sharon Angle leads Sen. Harry Reid, 49% to 47%. Public Policy Polling Democrat Reid edges Republican Angle, 49% to 48%.

NEW HAMPSHIRE: Rasmussen Republican Kelly Ayotte is ahead of Democratic US Rep. Paul Hodes, 51% to 44%.

NORTH CAROLINA: High Point University Republican Sen. Richard Burr leads Democrat Elaine Marshall, 45% to 31%.

WASHINGTON: Elway Democratic Sen. Patty Murray leads Republican Dino Rossi, 51% to 38%. Fox News Republican  Rossi just edges Democrat Murray, 47% to 46%.

WISCONSIN Rasmussen Republican Ron Johnson leads Russ Feingold, 52% to 45%. Reuters/Ipsos Johnson leads Feingold, 51% to 44%.

WEST VIRGINIA: Public Policy Polling Democrat Joe Manchin has now reclaimed the lead from Republican John Raese, 48% to 45%.

 Predicted Balance of Power: DEM-48 TCTC-6 REP-46

Likely/Safe GOP: AR, IN, LA, AL, AZ, GA, IA, ID, KS, ND, OH, OK, SC, SD, UT

 Predicted Balance of Power: DEM-49 TCTC-5 REP-46

Likely/Safe GOP: AR, IN, LA, AL, AZ, GA, IA, ID, KS, ND, OH, OK, SC, SD, UT strong>

Predicted Balance of Power: REP-28 TCTC-5 DEM-17

Predicted Balance of Power: REP-28 TCTC-5 DEM-17

Predicted Balance of Power: REP-28 TCTC-6 DEM-16

A survey by CNN/Time/Opinion Research in Colorado reports that Republican Ken Buck leads incumbent Democratic U.S. Sen. Michael Bennetfor U.S. Senate by +5% among likely voters, 49% to 44%.

PollTrack Continues To Rate The Race Too-Close-To-Call

Democratic prospects to retaining the U.S. Senate may have improved, based on the findings of a poll in a key state: Kentucky. The latest Courier-Journal/WHAS11 Bluegrass Poll reports that an earlier +15% lead for Republican (and Tea Party favorite) Rand Paul has nearly evaporated. He now leads Democrat Jack Conway by +2%, 49% to 47% with 4% still undecided. Stay tuned to see if other polls replicate this result.

Predicted Balance of Power: REP-28 TCTC-7 DEM-15

The political fortunes of one Democratic governor--Ted Strickland of Ohio--appears to reversing for the better. Three new polls show him within striking distance of his GOP opponent, John Kasich: Reuters/Ipsos poll shows the race virtually tied, with Kasich leading Strick among likely voters, 47% to 46% (the Republican held a +9% advantage in August). A new Fox News poll also shows a tight race, with leading by a scant +2%--45% to 43%. And a just released New York Times/CBS News poll shows Kasich with a 43% to 42% lead. Stay tuned.

Predicted Balance of Power: REP-27 TCTC-9 DEM-14

According to a new poll, the Democrat has fallen even further behind in the U.S. Senate race in Ohio:a Cincinnati Enquirer/Ohio Newspaper Poll of likely voters finds Republican Rob Portman with a substantial +15% over Democrat Lee Fisher, 55% to 40%.

Predicted Balance of Power: REP-28 TCTC-8 DEM-14

Despite the write-in campaign of incumbent Republican U.S. Senator Lisa Murkowski, who lost her bid for the GOP nomination to Tea Party maverick Joe Miller, Millers holds a substantial lead in a just released Rasmussen survey in the U.S. Senate race in Alaska. The poll shows Miller leading  with 42%, followed by Murkowski at 27% and Democrat Scott McAdams (D) at 25%.

A Fox News poll in Delaware reports that Democrat Chris Coons holds a substantial +15% lead over Republican Christine O'Donnell in the U.S. Senate race among likely voters, 54% to 39%. Another poll, from CNN/Time/Opinion Research, reports a similar result, with Coons leading O'Donnell by +16%, 55% to 39%.

A Public Policy Polling survey in California reports that Democrat Jerry Brown now leads Republican Meg Whitman in the race for governor, 47% to 42%.

PollTrack Moves The Race From Leaning Republican to Too-Close-To-Call

A Times Leader poll in Pennsylvania reports that Republican Pat Toomey holds a modest lead over Democratic Rep. Joe Sestak in the U.S. Senate race, 40% to 36%. With 24% undecided, PollTrack continues to raye the race too-close=to-call.

A SurveyUSA poll in the Georgia U.S. Senate race reports that Republican candidate Nathan Deal holds a considerable lead among likely voters over Democratic challenger and former Gov. Roy Barnes, 49% to 38%, with Libertarian candidate John Monds at 9%. Another poll, by InsiderAdvantage/WSB-TV poll finds former Barnes tied with Deal in the race for governor, 42% to 42%.

PollTrack Rates The Race Leaning Republican

A Las Vegas Review-Journal/Mason-Dixon poll in the gubernatorial race in Nevada reports that Republican Brian Sandoval holds a considerable +16% lead over Democrat lead Rory Reid, 52% to 36%.

A new Elway Poll in Washington state reports that incumbent Democrat U.S. Sen. Patty Murray holds an +8% lead over GOP challenger Dino Rossi, 50% to 41%. PollTrack notes that Murrary hovers at the all-important 50% mark.

Despite small divergences in the polling of the Nevada U.S. Senate race, it looks like the race is virtually tied at this point. A  Reuters/Ipsos poll reports that the Democratic incumbent Harry Reid holds a narrow lead among likely voters over Republican Sharron Angle, 46% to 44%; a new Rasmussen survey has the race tied at 48%; and a Fox News poll reports a narrow lead for Angle, at 45% to 44%.

A just released SurveyUSA poll in California reports that Republican Meg Whitman leads Democrat Jerry Brown in the race for governor by a modest margin, 47% to 40%.

 PollTrack Rates The Race Leans Republican

A new SurveyUSA poll in California reports that Republican challenger Carly Fiorina barely edges Democratic incumbent Sen. Barbara Boxer in the U.S. Senate race, 48% to 46%.

PollTrack Rates The Race Too-Close-To-Call

With two recent polls showing considerable tightening in the West Virginia U.S. Senate race--Democrat Joe Manchin now holds an aggregate +5.5% lead over GOP challenger, John Raese, 49% to 43.5%--PollTrack moves the race from Safe Democrat to Leaning Democrat

.

A new WHAS11/Courier-Journal Bluegrass Poll in Kentucky reports that Republican and Tea Party favorite Rand Paul has expanded his lead to 15% over Democrat Jack Conway in the U.S. Senate race, 55% to 40%. An Anzalone Research poll in Kentucky shows a MUCH closer race with Paul leading Conway (D) by +3%, 48% to 45%. And a new CNN/Time/Opinion Research survey reports that the race is tied at 46% among registered voters.

PollTrack Continues To Rate The Race Too-Close-To-Call

A new Columbus Dispatch poll in Ohio reports that Republican John Kasich leads incumbent Democratic Gov. Ted Strickland by a commanding +12% in the race for governor, 49% to 37%.

A just released Public Policy Polling survey in the Ohio U.S. Senate race reports that Republican Rob Portman has a +7% lead among likely voters over Lee Fisher, 45% to 38%. A Columbus Dispatch poll in Ohio reports that Portman leads Fisher by a whopping 13 points, 50% to 37%.

PollTrack Rates The Race Leans Republican

A Quinnipiac poll in New York reports that incumbent Democratic Attorney General Andrew Cuomo holds a commanding lead over either of his Republican rivals for governor: He bests Republican Rick Lazio, 57% to 25% and tops Carl Paladino, 60% to 23%.

PollTrack Rates The Race Safe Democrat

A just released Quinnipiac poll in New York reports that incumbent Democratic U.S. Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand holds a huge lead over each of her three possible Republican challengers for U.S. Senate: she tops Bruce Blakeman, 44% to 26%, leads David Malpass, 45% to 24%, and is ahead of Joseph DioGuardi, 43% to 28%.

PollTrack Rates The Race Likely Democrat

A just released Las Vegas Review-Journal/Mason-Dixon poll in Nevada reports that Republican Brian Sandoval holds a considerable lead over Democrat Rory Reid in the race for governor among likely voters, 53% to 31%.

According to a new Missouri State University Poll, the U.S. Senate race between Republican Roy Blunt and Democrat Robin Carnahan has drawn to a virtual tie, with the Blunt at 49% and the Democrat at 48%.PollTrack's aggregate still suggests a Republican advantage.

A new Las Vegas Review-Journal/Mason-Dixon poll in Nevada reports that incumbent Democratic U.S. Sen. Harry Reid holds a tiny lead over Republican challenger and Tea Party favorite Sharron Angle among likely voters in the U.S. Senate race, 45% to 44%.

PollTrack Rates The Race Too-Close-To-Call

It looks like the governorship in Michigan is headed for a GOP take over. A new EPIC/MRA poll in the state reports that Republican Rick Snyderholds a commanding lead over Democrat Virg Bernero in the race for governor, 51% to 29%.

A RL Repass & Partners poll in West Virginia reports that incumbent Democratic Governor Gov. Joe Manchin (D) holds an enormous lead over Republican John Raese for U.S. Senate, 54% to 32%.

PollTrack Rates The Race Safe Democrat

A new InsiderAdvantage/WSB-TV poll in Georgia reports that Republican Nathan Deal holds a +4% lead over former Democratic Gov. Roy Barnes in the race for governor, 45% to 41%.

PollTrack Rates The Race Leaning Republican

According to the latest Rasmussen Reports poll--which is in sync with other recently released polls in the state--incumbent Democratic U.S. Senator Blanche Lincoln is way behind in her reelection bid. The latest poll reports that Republican Congressman John Boozman leads Lincoln by a whopping +38%, 65% to 27%.

PollTrack Rates The Race Likely Republican

Recent polls have been showing a tight reelection race for Democratic U.S. Senator Patty Murray in Washington state. A new SurveyUSA poll in Washington reports that Republican Dino Rossi leads Murray by a larger +7% margin, 52% to 45%.

PollTrack Moves The Race From Leaning Democrat to Too-Close-To-Call

A Clarus Research poll in Louisiana reports that incumbent Republican Sen. David Vitter leads Democratic Rep. Charlie Melancon in the U.S. Senate race by +12%, 48% to 36%.

PollTrack Rates The Race Likely Republican

A new Braun Reseach poll in Kentucky reports that Democrat Jack Conway virtually tied with Republican Rand Paul in the U.S. Senate race. Conway leads Paul by a statistically insignificant margin, 41.7% to 41.2%.

A just released Las Vegas Review-Journal/Mason-Dixon poll in Nevada reports that Republican Brian Sandoval holds a big, +16% lead over Democrat Rory Reid in the race for governor, 52% to 36%.

A new Reuters/Ipsos poll in Kentucky reports that Republican Rand Paul (and Tea Party favorite) holds a +5% lead in the U.S. Senate race Democrat over Jack Conway, 45% to 40%.

The big question hanging over Gov. Charlie Crist's independent bid for US Senate in Florida concerns the relative enthusiasm of voters: Will the strong enthusiasm polls are picking up among GOP voters ultimately help Republican Marc Rubio in November? A new Miami Herald/St. Petersburg Times/Ipsos poll spots "a potentially major advantage for Rubio . . . that three-quarters of Republicans said they were certain to go the polls, while less than half of Democrats said they were a sure bet. The stronger motivation among Republican voters reflects polls nationwide and has boosted the party's hopes of taking back Congress in November."

A new Miami Herald/St. Petersburg Times/Ipsos poll in Florida reports that independent candidate--and incumbent Republican Governor--Charlie Crist holds a tiny lead afainst Republican Marco Rubio in the U.S. Senate race, 32% to 30%, with Democrat Jeff Greene well behind at 19%. If Rep. Kendrick Meek secures the Democratic nomination, Crist's lead widens to +4%, beating Rubio 33% to 29%, while Meek gets 17%.

Interestingly, Crist's job approval ratings--as Florida Governor-- "have dropped to an all-time low for him -- 44% -- and represent the lowest posted by a Florida governor in 16 years," according to a recent Mason-Dixon poll.

A just released Public Policy Polling survey in Colorado suggests that Democrat John Hickenlooper holds a strong lead over his Republican challenger, Dan Maes in the race for governor, 50% to 38%. The prospect of a likely third party rung by Tom Tancredo improves the Democrat's standing even more: Hickenlooper's lead grows to +25%, with Hickenlooper at 48%, followed by Tancredo at 23% and Maes at 22%.

A just released Brown University poll reports that Democrat Frank Caprio and former U.S. Senator and independent candidate Lincoln Chafee are statistically tied in the race for governor. The Democrat holds a slight lead in this very Democratic state with 28%, followed by Chaffee at 27%, and Republican John Robitaille at 8%.

A new Polling Company poll in Indiana finds former Republican Senator Dan Coats best Democrat Rep. Brad Ellsworth in the U.S. Senate race by a significant margin, 50% to 35%.

A Braun Research poll in Kentucky reports that Republican candidate and Tea Party favorite Rand Paul now holds a double-digit lead over Democrat Jack Conway (D) in the U.S. Senate race, 41% to 31%. A large number of respondents remain undecided.

PollTrack Rates The Race Leaning Republican

A We Ask America poll in Missouri reports that Republican Roy Blunt maintains a very modest lead over Democrat Robin Carnahan in the U.S. Senate race, 47% to 43%.

PollTrack Rates The Race Leans Republican

A new SurveyUSA poll in Oregon shows incumbent Democratic Senator Ron Wyden significantly ahead of Republican challenger Jim Huffman, 53% to 35%.

PollTrack Rates The Race Safe Democratic

A Quinnipiac poll in Florida reports a very close three-way race for governor between Democrat Alex Sink, and either potential Republican candidate, Rick Scott or Bill McCollum, and independent candidate Bud Chiles. Scott leads the pack at 29%, followed by Sink at 27% and Chiles 14%; McCollum would lead with 27%, followed by Sink at 26%, and Chiles at 14%.

Another poll suggests that independent Charlie Crist--currently incumbent Republican governor--may have the lead in the state's race for U.S. Senator. The just released Florida Poll reports that Crist holds a significant +11% lead in the three-way race: He now has the support of 41%, followed by Republican Marco Rubio at 30% and Democratic Rep. Kendrick Meek at 12%. If Jeff Greene is the Democratic nominee, Crist wins, but by a smaller margin: in that scenario, he gets 37% to Rubio's 29% and Greene's 16%. Earlier in the week, a Quinnipiac poll reported that Crist was leading, but by a smaller margin. In that poll, he garnered 37%, followed by Rubio at 32% and Greene at 17%.

One new poll in Nevada suggests that Republican Sharon Angle's downward spiral may have stopped in the race for U.S. Senate. The survey, by Mason-Dixon, shows incumbent Democratic Sen. Harry Reid and challenger Angle are nearly tied. Reid tops Angle among likely voters by a scant 1%, 43% to 42%. Two weeks ago, he held a more significant +7% lead.

A new Quinnipiac poll in New York reports that incumbent Democratic Attorney General Andrew Cuomo maintains a 69% approval rating. He beats either possible Republican gubernatorial challengers by wide margins: Cuomo is ahead of Republican by a whopping +30%, 56% to 26%, and bests Carl Paladino by the same margin, 55% to 25%.

In yet another sign of a potentially close race in Maryland, a newGonzales Research poll Incumbent Democratic Gov. Martin O'Malley with a tiny lead over former Republican Gov. Robert Ehrlich (R) in a rematch of their race for governor four years ago, 45% to 42%.

PollTrack Rates The Race Too-Close-To-Call

A Public Policy Polling survey in California reports that incumbent Democratic U.S. Senator Barbara Boxer has improved her standing against Republican challenger Carly Fiorina. Boxer now leads by +7%, 49% to 40%, up from her +3% edge two months ago. PPP writers: "As independents have grown to hold a more unfavorable opinion of Fiorina their loyalties in the race have shifted toward Boxer. The incumbent has a 48% to 38% lead with them now, flipping the 10 point deficit she faced to Fiorina at 42% to 32% back in May."

PollTrack Continues To Rate The Race Too-Close-To-Call

In a vital test of Tea Party strength, the U.S. Senate race in Kentucky now appears to be too-close-to-call. A just released Braun Research poll reports that Republican candidate and Tea Party favorite Rand Paul leads Democrat Jack Conway by a scant +3%, 41% to 38%.

PollTrack Rates The Race Too-Close-To-Call

A new Rasmussen survey in West Virginia reports that incumbent Democratic governor Joe Manchin is way ahead of possible Republican challenger John Raese in the special election for U.S. Senate, 51% to 35%.

PollTrack Rates The Race Leans Democrat

A just released St. Louis Post-Dispatch/Mason-Dixon poll in in the Missouri U.S. Senate race reports that Republican Roy Blunt holds a +6% lead over Democrat Robin Carnahan, in the race for U.S. Senate, 48% to 42%.The Democrat predictably leads in the state's large urban centers, St. Louis and Kansas City areas; Blunt leads every other region of the state by a wide margin. While PollTrack continues to rate the race too-close-to-close, it appears to be trending slightly Republican (like the state itself in recent years).

A Magellan Strategies poll in Wisconsin reports that incumbent Democratic Sen. Russ Feingold is in a tough fight for his political future. Feingold holds a slim, +2% lead over challenger Republican Ron Johnson, 45% to 43%.

PollTrack Rates The Race Too-Close-To-Call

A new Quinnipiac poll in Connecticut reports that Democrat Richard Blumenthal holds a substantial +17% lead over Republican challenger Linda McMahon in the U.S. Senate race, 54% to 37%.

Can incumbent Democrat US Senator Harry Reid survive his low approval ratings and win reelection in Nevada? Another poll suggests that he is gaining on his Republican challenger, and Tea Party favorite, Sharon Angle. A new Public Policy Polling survey in Nevada reports that Reid edges challenger Sharron Angle by +2%, 48% to 46%. This is the second poll to report a Democratic lead.

A new Rasmussen survey in Delaware reports that Republican U.S. Representative at large Mike Castle leads Democrat Chris Coons in the U.S. Senate race by a +11% margin, 47% to 36%.

A new SurveyUSA poll in California reports that Republican candidate Meg Whitman holds a +7% lead over former Democratic Governor Jerry Brown, 46% to 39%.

A new Las Vegas Review-Journal/Mason Dixon poll in Nevada reports that incumbent Democratic Sen. Harry Reid has moved into the lead, opening a lead over Republican challenger Sharron Angle, 44% to 37%. It appears that Reid's strategy of painting Angle, a Tea Party favorite as too extreme has paid off.

PollTrack Continues To Rate The Race Too-Close-To-call.

A new SurveyUSA poll in California reports that Republican candidate Carly Fiorina holds a statistically insignificant +2% lead over incumbent Democratic Sen. Barbara Boxer (D) in the U.S. Senate race, 47% to 45%. Conversely, a new Rasmussen survey has Democrat Boxer leading Fiorina by +7% among likely voters, 49% to 42%.

PollTrack Rates The Race Too-Close-To-Call

The race for US Senate in Illinois remains too-close-to-call. A new Rasmussen survey in Illinois reports that Democrat Alexi Giannoulias holds a scant (and statistically insignificant) +1% lead over Republican Rep. Mark Kirk, 40% to 39%.

In what amounts to another incumbent in trouble with voters, a new Magellan Strategies survey in Maryland reports that former Republican Gov. Robert Ehrlich holds a slim +3% lead over Democratic incumbent Gov. Martin O'Malley in their re-match for governor, 46% to 43%. Another poll by Public Policy Polling survey in Maryland finds Democrat O'Malley with a small lead over Ehrlich, 45% to 42%.

PollTrack Rates The Race Too-Close-To-Call

A newly released Rasmussen survey reports that incumbent Democratic Gov. Joe Manchin hold a significant lead in the special election to be held later this year in West Virginia to fill the late Sen. Robert Byrd's seat. Manchin leads Republican Rep. Shelley Moore Capito, 53% to 39%, and crushes the Republican Secretary, State Betty Ireland, 65% to 26%.

According to a new Field Poll, "Democratic Senator Barbara Boxer's edge over Republican challenger Carly Fiorina has dwindled to 3 points as she seeks re-election in November, with more Californians now holding an unfavorable view of the three-term senator . . . Boxer, who once held a 30-point lead over Fiorina, the former CEO of Hewlett Packard and a political novice, is now ahead by a margin of only 47 percent to 44 percent, the Field Poll found."

One alarming finding for the incumbent Democratic Senator: "The Field Poll found that since January more Californians have become disgruntled with Boxer, with 52 percent of likely voters holding an unfavorable view of her, compared with just 41 percent who regard her favorably. Boxer's ratings have dropped to some of the lowest levels of her 18-year career in the Senate, with only 42 percent of registered voters approving of her job performance and 43 percent disapproving."

PollTrack Rates The Race Too-Close-To-Call

In the race for Ohio Governor, the latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey reports that Republican John Kasich holds a +7% lead over incumbent Democrat Ted Strickland, 47% to 40%. 3% of likely voters prefer another candidate, and 10% are undecided.

PollTrack Rates The Race Too-Close-To-Call

According to a new Reuters/Ipsos poll in California, incumbent Democrat Sen. Barbara Boxer holds a +4% lead over her Republican challenger Carly Fiorina, 45% to 41%.

PollTrack Rates The Race Too-Close-To-Call.

According to new Reuters/Ipsos poll in California, the Democrat has a slight edge in the race for Governor. The survey reports that  Democrat Jerry Brown holds a +6% lead over Republican Meg Whitman, 45% to 39%.

PollTrack Rates The Race Too-Close-To-Call.

A just released Rasmussen survey in Washington state reports that incumbent Democratic U.S. Senator Patty Murray is tied with her Republican challenger Dino Rossi at 47% each.

PollTrack Rates The Race Too-Close-To-Call.

A Public Policy Polling survey reports that incumbent Republican U.S. Senator Charles Grassley can breath a little easier in his reelection bid: the poll has him leading his hypothetical Democratic opponents by +26 to +30%.

A new Quinnipiac poll in Ohio reports that the race for U.S. Senate is virtually deadlocked. Democrat Lee Fisher leads Republican Rob Portman by a slim +2% lead, 42% to 40%, with 17% undecided.

PollTrack Rates The Race Too Close To Call.

A Quinnipiac survey in Ohio reports a small lead for incumbent Democratic Gov. Ted Strickland over Republican challenger John Kasich, 43% to 38%. Another, contradictory, poll by Public Policy Polling survey shows Kasich with a small lead, 43% to 41%.

PollTrack Rates The Race Too Close To Call.

After demonstrating considerable strength in his reelection race, incumbent North Carolina U.S. Senator Richard Burr now finds himself in a virtual tied with his Democratic challenger, Elaine Marshall, according to a new  Rasmussen poll Burr leads Marshall by just one point, 44% to 43%. A SurveyUSA poll, on the other hand, shows Burr with a comfortable +10% lead over Marshall, 50% to 40%. PollTrack continues to give the edge to Burr.

A recently released Magellan Strategies poll in Arizona reports that in the GOP primary for U.S. Senate, incumbent John McCain holds a wide lead of +23% over challenger J.D. Hayworth, 52% to 29%.Significantly, McCain is over the 50% mark, another sign of his strength despite a challenge from his right flank.

A new Public Policy Polling survey in Pennsylvania shows Republican Tom Corbett leading Democrat Dan Onorato in the race for governor, 45% to 35%.

PollTrack Continues To Rate The Race Too-Close-To-Call.

A Sooner Poll in Oklahoma reports that Republican Rep. Mary Fallin holds a solid lead in the race for governor over both possible Democratic rivals: She bests Democratics Drew Edmondson, 50% to 35%, and Jari Askins, 49% to 36%.

It looks like the New York state Democratic strategy of avoiding a primary for incumbent U.S. Senator Kirsten Gillibrand may be working. A new Quinnipiac poll reports that Gillibrand now leads her two possible Republican challengers by significant margins: She has a +20% lead over Bruce Blakeman (46% to 26%) and a +22% lead over David Malpass (47% to 25%).

PollTrack Rates The Race Leaning Democrat

A Denver Post poll in Colorado reports that incumbent  Sen. Michael Bennet leads his Democratic primary challenger Andrew Romanoff among likely voters by a hefty +17%--53% to 36%. In the Republican race, Ken Buck holds an equally impressive lead over Jane Norton, 53% to 37%.

While most polls show the Florida U.S. Senate race close, a new Florida Chamber of Commerce poll tells a different story. It shows independent candidate, Gov. Charlie Crist widening his lead over Republican Marco Rubio and Democratic Rep. Kendrick Meek. The poll reports that Crist leads the pack with 42%, followed by Rubio at 31% and Meek at 14%.

A Rasmussen survey in Arkansas reports that Republican Rep. John Boozman is far ahead of incu,bent Democratic Sen. Blanche Lincoln in the U.S. Senate race, 61% to 32%.

A just released Rasmussen poll in South Carolina reports that incumbent Republican Sen. James DeMint is safely ahead of his Democratic challenger Alvin Greene by a whopping +37% margin--58% to 21%.

Out this week: slightly conflicting polls on the U.S. Senate race in Louisiana. One poll, from Magellan Strategies shows incu,bent GOP Sen. David Vitter with a substantial +20% lead over his Democratic challenger, Rep. Charles Melancon, 51% to 31%. Another, from Public Policy Polling reports a smaller, +9% lead for Vitter. In that survey, he trails Melancon, 46% to 37%.

Despite recent problems over his misstating of his military record, Democrat Richard Blumenthal holds a solid lead over his Republican challenger Linda McMahon in Connecticut's U.S. Senate race, according to the latest Rasmussen poll. And a just released Quinnipiac poll confirms this finding: in it, Blumenthal leads by a whopping +20%--55% to 35%.

A new Rasmussen survey in Nevada suggests that Senate Majority leader Harry Reid continues to have an uphill battle in his race for reelection. The poll reports that Republican Sharron Angle holds a hefty 11-point lead over Democrat Reid, 50% to 39%.Significantly, Angle hovers at the all-important 50% mark in the poll. 

A just released Rasmussen survey in Ohio reports that the Republican and Democratic candidates for U.S. Senate--Rob Portman and Lee Fisher, respectively--are deadlocked at 43% each.

Once again the bellwether state of Missouri reflects the greater reality of a nation politically divided. A new Rasmussen survey of voter preferences in Missouri's U.S. Senate race reports that Republican Roy Blunt and Democrat Robin Carnahan are virtually tied, with Blunt edging out Carnahan, 45% to 44%.

PollTrack rates the race Too-Close-To-Call.

A Democratic Party affiliated by Garin Hart Yang Research in Pennsylvania shows Democratic Rep. Joe Sestak with a seven point lead over GOP Rep. Pat Toomey, 47% to 40%.

AR-U.S. Senate Democratic Primary Runoff: Sen. Blanche Lincoln vs Bill Halter. PollTrack Rates The Race Close With A Slight Edge to Halter.

CA-U.S. Senate Republican Primary: Carly Fiorina, Tom Campbell, Chuck Devore. PollTrack Rates the Race Likely Fiorina.

CA-Republican Gubernatorial Primary: PollTrack Rates The Race Likely Meg Whitman.

IA-Republican Gubernatorial Primary: Former Gov. Terry Branstad vs Bob Vander Plaats. PollTrack Rates The Race Close, With A Slight Lead For Branstad.

ME-Democratic and Republican Gubernatorial Primaries: PollTrack Rates BOTH Races Too-Close-To-Call.

NV-Republican Gubernatorial Primary: Incumbent Gov. Jim Gibbons vs. Brian Sandoval. PollTrack Rates The Race Leaning Sandoval.

NV-U.S. Senate Republican Primary: Sharron Angle, Sue Lowden and Danny Tarkanian. PollTrack Rates the Race Likely Lowden

SC-Republican Gubernatorial Primary: PollTrack Rates The Race Likely Nikki Haley.

In yet another case of the weakening position of incumbents, A new DailyKos/Research 2000 survey in Arkansas finds challenger Bill Halter ahead of incumbent Sen. Blanche Lincoln in the Democratic primary runoff election, 49% to 45%, with another 6% still undecided. These results also show that liberal party activists are fired up in the state, given Halter's run to the left of Lincoln.

In line with every other recent survey, the prestigious Field Poll in California now reports that Carly Fiorina leads Tom Campbell in the GOP primary for Senate, 37% to 22%, with Chuck DeVore in third place at 19%.It increasingly looks like incumbent Democrat Barbara Boxer's challenger will be Fiorina.

The Field Poll in California reports that Meg Whitman now holds a 2 to 1 lead over Steve Poizer in the Republican gubernatorial primary--51% to 25%--with another 18% undecided. Another survey by Capitol Weekly/Probolsky Research tracking poll shows Whitman with a similar lead over Poizner, 48% to 20%.

A new USC/Los Angeles Timesl in California reports that Meg Whitman holds a whopping 24 point lead over Steve Poizner in the Republican primary for governor, 53% to 29%. In a general election match up, Democrat Jerry Brown leads Whitman by si points, 44% to 38%.With a large number of undecided voters up for grabs, the race now appears to be too-close-to-call.

A Bluegrass Poll in Kentucky reports that Republican Rand Paul holds a six point lead over Democrat Jack Conway in the U.S. Senate race, 51% to 45%.

A new USC/Los Angeles Times poll reports that in a general election match up, incumbent Democratic Sen. Barbara Boxer leads Republican Carly Fiorina, 44% to 38%. Last week, a DailyKos/Research 2000 poll reported a similar result, with Boxer leading Republican Tom Campbell, 47% to 40%, Carly Fiorina, 48% to 39%, and iChuck DeVore, 47% to 38%.The relatively high number of undecided voters suggests that the race is close, with Boxer maintaining a slight edge.

A new USC/Los Angeles Times poll in California suggests that Carly Fiorina has retaken the momentum against Tom Campbell in the Republican Senate primary race, 38% to 23%; Chuck DeVore trails at16%.

A DailyKos/Research 2000 poll in Pennsylvania reports that Democrat Rep. Joe Sestak leads Republican nominee Pat Toomey in the U.S. Senate race, 43% to 40%.

A new Siena Poll in New York reports that Democratic Attorney General Andrew Cuomo-- who just officially announced his candidacy for governor--holds a commanding lead over all three of his hypothetical Republican opponents: he beats likely GOP nominee Rick Lazio, 66% to 24%, Carl Paladino, 65% to 22%, and Steve Levy, 65% to 22%.

A new Siena poll reports that incumbent Democratic U.S. Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand has passed an important threshold in her reelection race: she is now over the important 50% make in hypothetical match ups with her potential Republican challengers.
She leads Republicans Bruce Blakeman, 51% to 24%, Joe DioGuadia, 51% to 25%, and David Malpass, 53% to 22%.

Two new polls suggest that Carly Fiorina has retaken the lead--by a fairly wide margin--in California's Republican primary for U.S. Senate: a new Public Policy Polling survey shows Fiorina with a +20% lead over Tom Campbell, 41% to 21%, with Chuck DeVore (R) running third at 16%. These results are quite similar to a SurveyUSA poll released yesterday.

A new DailyKos/Research 2000 poll in California reports that Tom Campbell now leads the Republican U.S. Senate race with 37%, followed by Carly Fiorina at 22% and Chuck DeVore at 14%.

The Miami Herald reports that Charlie Crist holds a narrow lead in the Florida U.S. Senate race, "despite nearly half of the voters saying he made a "purely political'' decision to bolt the GOP and run as an independent candidate in the Nov. 2 general election." The new St. Petersburg Times/Miami Herald/Bay News 9 poll finds that of the registered voters surveyed, 30 percent were for Crist, 27 percent for Republican Marco Rubio and 15 percent for Democratic front-runner Kendrick Meek."

With a banking scandal brewing around the Democratic nominee, the race for U.S. Senate in Illinois has grown more favorable to the Republican candidate. A new DailyKos/Research 2000 poll in Illinois reports that GOP Rep. Mark Kirk now leads Alexi Giannoulias the race, 41% to 38%.

PollTrack rates the race Too-Close-To Call.

The Marist Poll reports that incumbent Democratic Kirsten Gillibrand leads her hypothetical Republican challengers by a considerable margin in November's upcoming U. S. Senate race in New York. Gillibrand bests Republican Bruce Blakeman, 52% to 28%; Joseph DioGuardi, 50% to 30%; and David Malpass, 52% to 28%.

Will Democrats flip the state house in Connecticut this year? The answer may be yes. A Rasmussen poll in the nutmeg state finds Democrat Ned Lamont ahead of Republican Thomas Foley in the race for governor, 42% to 35%. Another Democrat vying for the gubernatorial nomination, Dan Malloy, also leads Foley, 38% to 35%.

A DailyKos/Research 2000 poll in Arizona suggest that while the race has grown closer, Republican incumbent U.S. Sen. John McCain leads primary challenger Republican J.D. Hayworth by a significant twelve point margin, 48% to 36%. In a general election match up, McCain bests Democrat Rodney Glassman by 13-points. 48% to 35%.

PollTrack rates the race likely Republican .

A new Rasmussen survey in Indiana reports that former GOP Sen. Dan Coats is well ahead of Democratic Rep. Brad Ellsworth for the U.S. Senate, 51% to 36%.

PollTrack rates the race likely Republican.

A just released Rasmussen survey in Delaware finds Republican Rep. Michael Castle with a gigantic lead over Democrat Chris Coons in their U.S. Senate race, 55% to 32%.

PollTrack Rates The Race Likely Republican

A Washington Post poll reports that incumbent Democratic Governor Martin O'Malley leads former Republican Gov. Bob Ehrlich by +8% in a rematch of their 2006 race in Maryland, 49% to 41%.

A just released Suffolk University poll in Pennsylvania reports that Democratic Rep. Joe Sestak now lead incumbent Sen. Arlen Specter in the Democratic Senate primary by +9%, 49% to 40%, with another 12% undecided. That a five-point jump from earlier in the week.

Could incumbent Republican Charles Grassley be in trouble in his reelection bid for U.S. Senate? A new KCCI poll in Iowa reports that the race appears to be tightening up, Grassley now leads Democrat Roxanne Conlin by just nine points, 49% to 40%.

A new poll suggest that incumbent Democratic U.S. Senator Arlen Specter is in Danger in his reelection bid in Pennsylvania. In the Democratic primary, the survey shows Specter behind rival Joe Sestak. In Monday's Muhlenberg/Morning Call tracking poll: Rep. Sestak leads Sen. Specter by +5%--47% to 42%. A new Rasmussen survey also shows Sestak with a +5% lead, 47% to 42%.

With the respective nominees now decided in Ohio's U.S. Senate race, a new Rasmussen poll reports that Democrat Lee Fisher inches past Republican Rob Portman, 43% to 42%.

PollTrack rates the race too-close-to-call.

For GOP US Senate hopeful, Florida Governor Charlie Crist may have made a smart move by deciding to run as an independent: another poll, this one from Mason Dixon poll, finds Crist leading a three-way race for U.S. Senate with 38%, followed by Republican Marco Rubio at 32% and Democratic Rep. Kendrick Meek at 19%. Interestingly, the poll reports that "More than half of Crist's supporters are Democrats, who overwhelmingly approve of his defection from the GOP and recent veto of a controversial teacher tenure bill."

Is the U.S. Senate race in Washington headed for a squeaker this fall? A SurveyUSA poll in Washington reports that incumbent Democratic Sen. Patty Murray does no better than 46% against six possible Republican opponents. In one match up, Murray should be particularly alarmed: against Republican Dino Rossi (R)--who is considering a Senate run--Murray trails by -10%-- 52% to 42%.

Are Republicans headed for victory in the U.S. Senate race in Illinois, possibly winning the seat once held by President Obama? A new Rasmussen survey in Illinois suggests that the answer may be yes. The poll finds that Democratic Alexi Giannoulias falling  behind his Republican challenger, Rep. Mark Kirk (R). Kirk now leads Giannoulias by eight points, 46% to 38%.

A newly released McLaughlin & Associates poll in Florida suggest that incumbent Republican Governor Charlie Crist may have made a good move by dropping out of the GOP primary for U.S. Senate and running as an independent. According to the survey, he now leads the race with 33%, followed by Republican Marco Rubio at 29% and Democratic Rep. Kendrick Meek at 15%. Who does Crist hurt more? The survey shows Crist taking more votes from Meek than Rubio, actually besting Meeks with Democrats.Any trends here? With a large number of undecided voters and Crist and Rubio relatively close, PollTrack rates the race Too-Close-To-Call.

It looks like the Democrats are honing in on a candidate to challenge Republican Rob Portman in the U. S. Senate race in November. A new Suffolk University poll shows Lee Fisher trouncing Jennifer Brunner in this week's Democratic primary race, 55% to 27%. These numbers are consistent with a spate of new polls that show Fisher well head in the race to challenge Portman, who is unopposed for the Republican nomination, in the general election.

A new SurveyUSA poll in California reports that Tom Campbell now leads the Republican U.S. Senate primary race with 34%. Carly Fiorina garners 27% and Chuck DeVore is at 14%. Another 23% are undecided about a candidate to challenge incumbent Democratic Senator Barbara Boxer this fall.

A new SurveyUSA poll in California reports that Meg Whitman trounces her opposition in the Republican gubernatorial primary: she leads Steve Poizner, 49% to 27%. Six other hypothetical primary challengers receive a combined total of 9% of primary voters; 15% of likely voters remain undecided.

After months of leading in the polls, is the incumbent Democratic Governor of Maryland in trouble? A new Rasmussen survey reports that Gov. Martin O'Malley edges former Republican Gov. Bob Ehrlich by a scant +3% in their repeat race for governor--47% to 44%.

Can incumbent GOP Governor Charlie Crist win reelection running as an independent candidate if he drops out of the Republican primary? A new Rasmussen survey in Florida reports that he would not be the front runner at this point: presumptive Republican nominee Marco Rubio leads with 37% of likely voters, followed by Crist at 30% and Democratic Rep. Kendrick Meek at 22%. 

A just released Rasmussen survey in California reports that presumptive nominee Democratic Jerry Brown holds a +6% advantage over his hypothetical challenger, Republican Meg Whitman (R), 44% to 38%. A month ago, Brown and Whitman were tied at 40%.

A just released DailyKos/Research 2000 poll in Arkansas reports that incumbent Democratic Sen. Blanche Lincoln leads her primary rival Bill Halter by 12 points, 45% to 33%.

A new Mason-Dixon poll reports that even when third-party and nonpartisan candidates are included on the ballot, Democrat Sen. Harry Reid loses his reelection race to Republican challenger Sue Lowden. Lowden now leads Reid, 47% to 37%, with the other candidates getting very little support.

A Quinnipiac survey in Florida reports that in the Republican primnary for US Senate, Marco Rubio holds a commanding lead over Gov. Charlie Crist, 56% to 33%. In general election match ups, Rubio holds a very modest lead over Democrat Rep. Kendrick Meek (D), 42% to 38% (Crist's lead over Meek is wider, 48% to 34%.). But what if Crist, now poised to loose his Republican primary bid, runs as an independent in the general? According to Quinnipiac, he would win by a slight margin, with Crist at 32%, followed by Rubio at 30% and Meek at 24%. 

A new Rasmussen survey in Illinois shows Republican Rep. Mark Kirk besting Democrat Alexi Giannoulias (D) in their U.S. Senate race, 41% to 37%. With the lead statistically insignificant--and the number of undecided voters high--PollTrack continues to rate the race too close to call.

A new Mason-Dixon poll in Nevada reports that presumptive Republican nominee, Brian Sandoval, leads Democrat  Rory Reid by a wide margin in the race for governor, 50% to 35%. PollTrack rates the race leaning Republican.

A new Quinnipiac poll in New York reports that Democratic Attorney General Andrew Cuomo holds commanding leads against all of his hypothetical Republican challengers in the race for Governor: Cuomo bests Rick Lazio, 55% to 26%, Carl Paladino, 60% to 24%, and Democrat turned Republican Steve Levy, 57% to 24%. PollTrack rates the race safe Democrat.

In the Democratic primary for US Senate in Ohio, A new DailyKos/Research 2000 poll reports that Lee Fisher leads Jennifer Brunner, 35% to 26%, with a whopping 39% still undecided. In the general election the poll shows Democrat Fisher leading Republican Rob Portman, 43% to 39%; Brunner leads by an even smaller margin, 41% to 40%. With the leads statistically insignificant--and the undecided number high--PollTrack continues to rate the race too close to call.

A new DailyKos/Research 2000 survey in Ohio reports that incumbent Gov. Ted Strickland is ahead of his presumptive challenger Republican John Kasich in the race for governor, 45% to 40%, with 15% still undecided. With the race statistically close--and the undecided number high--PollTrack continues to rate the race too close to call.

Another poll shows Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid behind in his 2010 reelection race: Rasmussen reports that Reid is considerably lagging behind his potential Republican opponents: he trails Sue Lowden, 54% to 39% and is bested by Sharron Angle, 51% to 40%.

A new Public Policy Polling survey in Pennsylvania finds Pat Toomey (R) currently holds a small lead over Sen. Arlen Specter (D-PA), 46% to 43%.

PollTrack continues to rate the race a Toss Up.

A Los Angeles Times/USC poll in California reports that Republican gubernatorial candidate Meg Whitman--who continues to lead her GOP primary challenger Steve Poizner by a whopping 40 points--also bests the presumptive Democratic nominee Jerry Brownby a slight margin in a general election match up, 44% to 41%.

While PollTrack continues to rate the US Senate race in California too-close-to-call, a new poll now incumbent Democrat Barbara Boxer in the lead: the Los Angeles Times/USC poll reports that in the general election, Sen. Barbara Boxer (D) holds a considerabele advantage over a generic Republican, 48% to 34%, as she seeks her fourth term.

Incumbent Republican US Senator John McCain appears to be leading in his primary race: A new DailyKos/Research 2000 poll in Arizona finds Sen. John McCain (R-AZ) leading primary challenger J.D. Hayworth (R) by a significant margin, 52% to 37%.

A round of new polling suggests that incumbent Democratic senator Barbara Boxer may be in serious trouble in California. Her lead against hypothetical challenger Carly Fiorina has now dropped to +4.2%, 46% to 41.8%. The two newest polls, including the highly respected Field poll, sow an even smaller lead, at +1%.

Are Democrats gaining in Ohio? A new Quinnipiac poll suggests that the answer may be yes. The survey finds that Democrats now lead in both the U.S. Senate and Governor's races. In hypothetical match ups in the Senate race, Democratic Lt. Gov. Lee Fisher leads Republican Rob Portman, 41% to 37%; Democratic Secretary of State Jennifer Brunner also edges Portman, albeit by a single point, 38% to 37%, a +6% gain over Quinnipiac's February poll. In the gubernatorial race, incumbent Democrat Ted Strickland leads Republican challenger John Kasich by +5%--43% to 38%.

A new Rasmussen Reports survey reports that the popular Republican Governor John Hoeven of North Dakota --now running for for the open seat of retiring Democratic Sen. Byron Dorgan--holds a huge lead over Democratic candidate Tracy Potter, 68% to 25%.

PollTrack Early Read: Safe Republican

A new Marist Poll in New York suggests that incumbent Democratic US Senator Kirsten Gillibrand may be vulnerable in her reelection bid this November: the poll finds former Republican Gov. George Pataki leading Gillibrand by a slim margin: 47% to 45%. Marist observes: "Former Governor Pataki is the big unknown for Gillibrand. With her approval rating at 27%, Gillibrand will almost certainly have her work cut out for her if Pataki enters the race."

A new Marist Poll reports that the popularity incumbent New York Gov. David Paterson's has dropped to an even lower level since of series of scandals were revealed this winter: he now has just 17% favorable rating.Perhaps very good news for the Democratic party, Paterson announced recently that he would not seek reelection this November.

A new Field Poll reports that California Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger has the lowest approval rating in modern history, "including Gray Davis, who was ousted by Schwarzenegger in a popular uprising." 71% of California voters surveyed disapprove of Republican Schwarzenegger's handling of the job; 23 percent approve. s Field notes: "The low ratings are shared across all demographics including party affiliation, region of the state, age and race or ethnicity."

This week, Polltrack looks at races it rates as a Toss Up for 2010 US Senate.

Here is the poll average for Missouri:

Blunt (R) 47.0% to Carnahan (D) 41.0%.

Slight edge and momentum to the Republican, but Missouri remains a bellwether state of sorts and could go either way in this race, with many voters undecided.

This week, Polltrack looks at races it rates as a Toss Up for 2010 US Senate.

Here is the poll average for PENNSYLVANIA:

Toomey (R) 44.0% to Specter (D) 41.0%.

Slight edge to the Republican, but the race is a true toss up. The tea leaves are, at this point, very difficult to read. It appears that Specter's number have been improving in recent months.

This week, Polltrack looks at races it rates as a Toss Up for 2010 US Senate.

Here is the poll average for OHIO:

Portman (R) 44.0 % to Fischer (D) 39.0%.

In this hypothetical match up (including only the respective leaders in their party's upcoming primaries), PollTrack believes that neither party leads in this key bellwether state. Many voters remain undecided.

This week, Polltrack looks at races it rates as a Toss Up for 2010 US Senate.

Here is the poll average for COLORADO:

Norton (R) 45.5% to Bennett (D) 41.0%.

Slight edge to the Republican, but the race remains very close, with many voters undecided.

Meg Whitman appears to be doing very well in her bid to become California's next governor: a new Field Poll shows the GOP front runner with a enormous lead over Steve Poizner in the Republican primary race, 63% to 14%. After weeks of being behind in a hypothetical general election match up, Whitman now leads Democrat Jerry Brown, 46% to 43%.

A Public Policy Polling survey in Colorado reports that the 2010 race for U.S. Senate has now drawn down in a tied. In a hypothetical match up, incumbent Democrat, Michael Bennet is tied with his Republican challenger Jane Norton at 43%. The outcome of the Democratic primary in the state could make a difference, however: In PPP survey, Democrat Andrew Romanoff actually leads Norton, 44% to 39%.

PollTrack's Read: Too-Close-To-Call

A new Public Policy Polling survey in Florida shows Republican Bill McCollum with a considerable +13%-lead over Democrat Alex Sink, 44% to 31%

Is a Republican upset possible in the 2010 U.S. Senate race in Wisconsin? A new Wisconsin Policy Research Institute poll now reports that former GOP Governor Tommy Thompson is leading Sen. Russ Feingold (D) in a hypothetical match up, 51% to 39%. One caveat: WPRI has tied to the Republican Party. Stay tuned for more polling.

A new DailyKos/Research 2000 poll in Pennsylvania reports that incumbent U.S. Senator Arlen Specter has a modest lead Republican Pat Toomey, 47% to 41%. Other surveys have also reported movement in Specter's direction in recent weeks.

Without the presence of a Tea Party candidate on the ballot in Nevada's 2010 US Senate race, incumbent Democrat and Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid appears to be failing: In hypothetical match-ups, a new Rasmussen survey reports that Republican Sue Lowden defeats Reid by a large margin, 51% to 38%. Similarly, Republican Danny Tarkanian trounces the Democrat, 50% to 37%.

With the primaries over in Texas, Rasmussen reports that the incumbent Republican Governor Rick Perry leads his Democratic challenger, Bill White by a small margin: 49% to 43%. These numbers suggest that the race has tightened considerably in recent months.  

PollTrack Rating: Toss-Up

A new survey reports that there is no clear leader in the 2010 Ohio US Senate race: "None of the top contenders  . . . are gaining ground at this point, with Republican Rob Portman still holding a modest lead. The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of likely voters in the state finds Portman leading Lieutenant Governor Lee Fisher 44% to 39% . . . Portman holds a 43% to 37% lead over Secretary of State Jennifer Brunner, and this, too, is little changed from the previous survey. Six percent (6%) opt for another candidate, with 15% more undecided."