Presidential Race Maps Writing on the Wall

FINAL 2012 US SENATE RACE CHART 54 DEM 0-TCTC 46 REP

Posted Nov 05, 2012 at 5:34 PM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

2012 US SENATE RACE CHART

55 DEM       0
-TCTC        45 REP



SAFE DEMOCRATIC

CA, DE, ME, MD, MN, NJ, NY, PA, RI, WA, VT, WV

LEANING DEMOCRATIC

CT: Murphy (D) vs McMahon (R)

FL: Nelson (D) vs McGillicuddy (R)

HI: Hirono (D) vs Lingle (R)

IN: Donnelly (D) vs Murdock (R)


MI: Stebenow (D) vs Hoekstra (R)

MA: Warren (D) vs Brown (R

MO: McGaskill (D) vs Akin (R)
MT : Tester (D) vs Rehberg (R)

NM: Heinrich (D) vs Wilson (R)
OH
: Brown (D) vs Mandel (R)

VA: Kaine (D) vs Allen (R)

WI: Baldwin (D) vs Thompson (R)

LEANING REPUBLICAN

AZ: Carmona (D) vs Flake (R)

ND : Heitkamp (D) vs Berg (R)

NE: Kerry (D) vs Deb Fischer (R)

NV: Berkley (D) vs Heller (R)


SAFE REPUBLICAN

MS,  TN, TX, UT, WY

2012 US SENATE RACE CHART 54 DEM 1-TCTC 45 REP

Posted Nov 05, 2012 at 11:16 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

2012 US SENATE RACE CHART

54 DEM       1
-TCTC        45 REP



SAFE DEMOCRATIC

CA, DE, ME, MD, MN, NJ, NY, PA, RI, WA, VT, WV

LEANING DEMOCRATIC

CT: Murphy (D) vs McMahon (R)

FL: Nelson (D) vs McGillicuddy (R)

HI: Hirono (D) vs Lingle (R)

IN: Donnelly (D) vs Murdock (R)


MI: Stebenow (D) vs Hoekstra (R)

MA: Warren (D) vs Brown (R

MO: McGaskill (D) vs Akin (R)

NM: Heinrich (D) vs Wilson (R)
OH
: Brown (D) vs Mandel (R)

VA: Kaine (D) vs Allen (R)

WI: Baldwin (D) vs Thompson (R)

 

TOO-CLOSE-TO-CALL


MT : Tester (D) vs Rehberg (R)

 

LEANING REPUBLICAN

AZ: Carmona (D) vs Flake (R)

ND : Heitkamp (D) vs Berg (R)

NE: Kerry (D) vs Deb Fischer (R)

NV: Berkley (D) vs Heller (R)


SAFE REPUBLICAN

MS,  TN, TX, UT, WY

2012 US SENATE RACE CHART 53 DEM 2-TCTC 45 REP

Posted Nov 04, 2012 at 1:04 PM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

2012 US SENATE RACE CHART

53 DEM       2
-TCTC        45 REP



SAFE DEMOCRATIC

CA, DE, ME, MD, MN, NJ, NY, PA, RI, WA, VT, WV

LEANING DEMOCRATIC

CT: Murphy (D) vs McMahon (R)

FL: Nelson (D) vs McGillicuddy (R)

HI: Hirono (D) vs Lingle (R)

IN: Donnelly (D) vs Murdock (R)

MI: Stebenow (D) vs Hoekstra (R)

MA: Warren (D) vs Brown (R

MO: McGaskill (D) vs Akin (R)

NM: Heinrich (D) vs Wilson (R)
OH
: Brown (D) vs Mandel (R)

WI: Baldwin (D) vs Thompson (R)

 

TOO-CLOSE-TO-CALL

 



MT : Tester (D) vs Rehberg (R)

VA: Kaine (D) vs Allen (R)

 

LEANING REPUBLICAN

AZ: Carmona (D) vs Flake (R)

ND : Heitkamp (D) vs Berg (R)

NE: Kerry (D) vs Deb Fischer (R)

NV: Berkley (D) vs Heller (R)




SAFE REPUBLICAN

MS,  TN, TX, UT, WY

CT US Senate . . .

Posted Nov 02, 2010 at 12:34 PM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

. . . stays in Democratic hands, as state Attorney General Richard Blumenthal defeats GOP candidate Linda McMahon. A critical seat for the Democrats, re: control of the US Senate.

Latest Polls In Close US Senate Races

Posted Oct 13, 2010 at 1:22 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

Here's a recap of the latest polls in some of the most competitive US Senate races:

 

ALASKA: DailyKos/Public Policy Polling Republican Joe Miller just edges write-in hopeful and incumbent GOP US Senator Lisa Murkowski, 35% to 33%. Democrat Scott McAdams is at 26%.

CONNECTICUT: Fox News Democrat Richard Blumenthal leads Republican Linda McMahon, 49% to 43%.

DELAWARE: Monmouth University Democrat Chris Coons holds a huge lead over Republican Christine O'Donnell, 57% to 38%.

ILLINOIS: Rasmussen Democrat Alexi Giannoulias leads GOP Rep. Mark Kirk, 44% to 43%, with Green Party candidate LeAlan Jones polling at 4%.

NEVADA: Fox News Republican Sharon Angle leads Sen. Harry Reid, 49% to 47%. Public Policy Polling Democrat Reid edges Republican Angle, 49% to 48%.

NEW HAMPSHIRE: Rasmussen Republican Kelly Ayotte is ahead of Democratic US Rep. Paul Hodes, 51% to 44%.

NORTH CAROLINA: High Point University Republican Sen. Richard Burr leads Democrat Elaine Marshall, 45% to 31%.

WASHINGTON: Elway Democratic Sen. Patty Murray leads Republican Dino Rossi, 51% to 38%. Fox News Republican  Rossi just edges Democrat Murray, 47% to 46%.

WISCONSIN Rasmussen Republican Ron Johnson leads Russ Feingold, 52% to 45%. Reuters/Ipsos Johnson leads Feingold, 51% to 44%.

WEST VIRGINIA: Public Policy Polling Democrat Joe Manchin has now reclaimed the lead from Republican John Raese, 48% to 45%.

CT US Senate 2010: Democrat Blumenthal With Solid Lead

Posted Jul 23, 2010 at 1:30 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

A new Quinnipiac poll in Connecticut reports that Democrat Richard Blumenthal holds a substantial +17% lead over Republican challenger Linda McMahon in the U.S. Senate race, 54% to 37%.

CT US Senate 2010: Democrat Blumenthal With Solid Lead Despite Recent Problems

Posted Jun 15, 2010 at 1:10 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

Despite recent problems over his misstating of his military record, Democrat Richard Blumenthal holds a solid lead over his Republican challenger Linda McMahon in Connecticut's U.S. Senate race, according to the latest Rasmussen poll. And a just released Quinnipiac poll confirms this finding: in it, Blumenthal leads by a whopping +20%--55% to 35%.

PollTrack rates the race leaning Democrat.

CT Governor 2010: Democrats Leading

Posted May 20, 2010 at 12:12 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

Will Democrats flip the state house in Connecticut this year? The answer may be yes. A Rasmussen poll in the nutmeg state finds Democrat Ned Lamont ahead of Republican Thomas Foley in the race for governor, 42% to 35%. Another Democrat vying for the gubernatorial nomination, Dan Malloy, also leads Foley, 38% to 35%.

CT + ND US Senate 2010: Dominant Parties Have Edge

Posted Feb 01, 2010 at 1:11 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

According to PollTrack's first read of the 2010 US Senate Race in two states with dominant political parties and strong candidates representing those parties--Connecticut (Democrat) and North Dakota (Republican)--the races are easy calls at this point. In ND, a very likely GOP win would represent a Republican pick up (it had previously been held by Democrat Byron Dorgan). CT's seat was held by retiring Democrat, Christopher Dodd, and should remain in Democratic hands.  

PollTrack First Call Connecticut: Safe Democrat

PollTrack First Call North Dakota: Safe Republican

CT Governor 2010: Democrats Ahead

Posted Jan 21, 2010 at 1:09 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

A Public Policy Polling survey in Connecticut suggestsd that it will be tough sailing for Republicans in the 2010 Governor's race in Connecticut: in hypothetical match ups, the poll finds three Democrats running--Susan Bysiewicz, Ned Lamont, and Dan Malloy--with solid leads over Republican contenders Michael Fedele and Tom Foley. Bysiewicz leads Foley 48% to 26% and Fedele 50% to 25%. Lamont and Malloy also hold double digit leads over their Republican rivals. A new Quinnipiac poll in Connecticut also finds  a Democratic lead in hypothetical matchups, but with the candidates FAR closer to each other: Lamont edges Foley, 38% to 36%, and beats Fedele, 41% to 32%. Malloy beats Foley, 37% to 33%, and leads Fedele, 37% to 31%.

CT US Senate 2010: With Dodd Out, Democratic AG Popular

Posted Jan 07, 2010 at 1:45 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

With Chris Dodd bowing out for reelection, a new Public Policy Polling survey in Connecticut reports that Democratic Attorney General Richard Blumenthal leads all three Republicans in the U.S. Senate race by at least 30 points. Blumenthal bests Republicans Rob Simmons, 59% to 28%; Linda McMahon, 60% to 28%; and Peter Schiff, 63% to 23%. PPP writes: "Blumenthal is unusually popular, especially in hyper partisan times when voters like few politicians. 59% have a favorable opinion of him to just 19% who see him negatively. It's no surprise that he's liked by 71% of Democrats and 60% of independents, but even Republicans view him favorably by a 37/35 margin. It doesn't take a lot of hands to count the number of Democratic politicians with positive numbers among GOP voters these days... It would take an epic collapse for him not to be Connecticut's next Senator."

AR, CT, NV Senate 2010: Democrats in Trouble

Posted Dec 30, 2009 at 2:15 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

In another sign that Democrats may suffer loses in the 2010 mid-term election, Sens. Christopher Dodd (D-CT), Blanche Lincoln (D-AR) and Harry Reid (D-NV) all now have disapproval ratings above 50%, according to recent polling. As Tom Jensen observes: "Politics is full of surprises and who knows what unexpected things will happen in the next year but if I had to pick three Senators running for reelection right now who will be cleaning out their offices at this time next year it would be Dodd, Lincoln, and Reid. Once voters have decided the disapprove of you it's very hard to overcome that. "

Lieberman Less Popular With Americans

Posted Dec 29, 2009 at 2:21 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

According to a new CNN/Opinion Research Survey, CT Independent Sen. Joe Lieberman's favorable rating with Americans has dropped almost 10-points in the past two weeks, from 40% to 31%. Perhaps most ominously for his political future, Lieberman's greatest decline--a 14-point drop--came among independents.

CT US Senate 2010: Democrat Chris Dodd Lags Behind Republican Challengers

Posted Dec 10, 2009 at 1:07 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

The notion that Democratic US Senator Chris Dodd of Connecticut is one of the most vulnerable incumbents is borne out by a new Rasmussen Reports survey. The poll finds Dodd attracting just 35% to 40% of the vote against three possible Republican challengers: "Former GOP Congressman Rob Simmons is still his toughest opponent, leading Dodd 48% to 35%. Seven percent (7%) prefer some other candidate in this contest, and 11% are undecided. Those figures are a slight improvement for Simmons since September. The newest Republican in the race, Linda McMahon, the ex-CEO of World Wrestling Entertainment, earns 44% of the vote to Dodd’s 38%. Eight percent (8%) opt for another candidate, with nine percent (9%) not sure. Long-shot candidate Peter Shiff, the widely-known president of Euro Pacific Capital, is essentially even with Dodd and holds a one-point edge, 40% to 39%. In their race, eight percent (8%) like some other candidate, and 14% are undecided."

CT Governor 2010: Jodi Rell Quits

Posted Nov 13, 2009 at 1:12 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

One reason why Republican Gov. Jodi Rell of CT has chosen not to seek reelection: recent polls show her vulnerable next year. A new Quinnipiac University Poll reports that "in an early look at the 2010 election for Connecticut Governor, Secretary of State Susan Bysiewicz runs best among possible Democratic challengers, trailing Republican incumbent Jodi Rell 46 - 40 percent . . . Gov. Rell leads 91 - 5 percent among Republicans and 56 - 26 percent among independent voters, while Bysiewicz leads 74 - 12 percent among Democrats. Businessman Ned Lamont trails Rell 53 - 33 percent and Stamford Mayor Dan Malloy loses 52 - 33 percent . . .  In a Democratic primary match up, Bysiewicz gets 26 percent to 23 percent for Lamont, with 9 percent for Malloy. No other contender tops 3 percent." Still with Rell under 50% in one match up and just grazing the halfway mark in two others, her numbers do not look particularly strong for reelection. 

CT US Senate 2010: Democrat Chris Dodd Still Lags

Posted Sep 25, 2009 at 1:47 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

According to a recent poll, Democratic incumbent Senator Chris Dodd lags behind his hypothetical GOP challenger in his 2010 reelection race in Connecticut: Dodd trails Republican Rob Simmons, a former three-term congressman, by a significant margin. Simmons leads Dodd 49% to 39% percent  Businessman and former Ireland Ambassador Tom Foley, virtually unknown to Connecticut voters, also tops Dodd 43% to 40%.

Connecticut US Senate: Christopher Dodd Doing Better in 2010 Reelection Bid

Posted Jun 15, 2009 at 2:28 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

A Quinnipiac University survey suggests that the propects of incumbent Democratic  Senator Christopher Dodd have much improved in his 2010 reelection bid: The poll finds Dodd gaining on former Rep. Rob Simmons (R-CT). However, Simmons still leads by six points, 45% to 39%, in a 2010 Senate match up. Simmons led by 16 points in early April. Against State Sen. Sam Caligiuri (R), Dodd leads 41% to 39%." Still much work lies ahead for dodd if he is to move into a comfortable position for reelection. PollTrack, at this early stage, rates the race a toss-up.

Dem. Chris Dodd Lacks Voter Support in 2010 CT. Senate Rellection Bid

Posted Apr 22, 2009 at 1:05 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

As if we needed another sign of the unpopularity of Connecticut Democratic US Senator Christopher Dodd, a local newspaper reports that "Dodd appears to have looked everywhere but his home state to fuel what pundits anticipate will be one of the most hotly contested races in the nation in 2010. The five-term incumbent reported raising just $4,250 from five Connecticut residents during the first three months of the year while raking in $604,745 from nearly 400 individuals living outside the state. While incumbents often turn to special interests for early campaign fundraising, Dodd's out-of-state total seems unusually high and comes at a time when he has been plagued by poor approval ratings among state voters." The paper concludes, ominously for Dodd: "The meager state fundraising effort also seems antithetical to a campaign strategy to rebuild confidence among Connecticut voters that he is on their side."

Nevertheless, according to the Boston Globe,  a support no more important than the president continues to express confidence in Connecticut's junior senator: "I can't say it any clearer: I will be helping Chris Dodd because he deserves the help. Chris is going through a rough patch. He just has an extraordinary record of accomplishment, and I think the people in Connecticut will come to recognize that... He always has his constituencies at heart, and he's somebody I'm going to be relying on and working very closely with to shepherd through the types of regulatory reforms we need."

Democratic US Senator Chris Dodd Appears Vulnerable in 2010

Posted Mar 11, 2009 at 2:06 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

The latest poll numbers in Connecticut suggerst that incumbent US Senator Chris Dodd may be in trouble in his 2010 election bid. As Time Magazine reports, "Dodd is looking increasingly vulnerable. The silver-haired father of two young girls is facing his toughest re-election fight ever, and he doesn't even have an opponent yet. (CNBC pundit Larry Kudlow and former GOP Representative Rob Simmons have both expressed interest in running.) In a January Quinnipiac poll, 51% of Connecticut voters said they would not vote for Dodd in 2010. 'It's the subject matter — people are watching their tax dollars go into institutions and they wonder when it's going to get better and they wonder where it's going," Dodd says. "I don't find people trying to elbow me out of the way trying to take over jurisdiction of the Banking Committee.'"

Is Joe Lieberman (i) Vulnerable in Connection 2012?

Posted Dec 23, 2008 at 1:11 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

Connecticut voters are growing increasingly negative about Joe Lieberman, the Democrat turned-independent who endorsed Republican John McCain for president in this cycle. According to a new Quinnipiac Poll, BOTH of the state's "U.S. Senators get their lowest approval ratings ever, a negative 38% to 54% for Sen. Joseph Lieberman and a lackluster 47% to 41% for Sen. Christopher Dodd." Two questions: will Lieberman be vulnerable in 2012? And who will be his likely Dempcratic and Republican challengers. And will their split once, once again allow Lieberman to retain his seat.