According to PollTrack's first read of the 2010 US Senate Race in two states with dominant political parties and strong candidates representing those parties--Connecticut (Democrat) and North Dakota (Republican)--the races are easy calls at this point. In ND, a very likely GOP win would represent a Republican pick up (it had previously been held by Democrat Byron Dorgan). CT's seat was held by retiring Democrat, Christopher Dodd, and should remain in Democratic hands.  

PollTrack First Call North Dakota: Safe Republican

A Public Policy Polling survey in Connecticut suggestsd that it will be tough sailing for Republicans in the 2010 Governor's race in Connecticut: in hypothetical match ups, the poll finds three Democrats running--Susan Bysiewicz, Ned Lamont, and Dan Malloy--with solid leads over Republican contenders Michael Fedele and Tom Foley. Bysiewicz leads Foley 48% to 26% and Fedele 50% to 25%. Lamont and Malloy also hold double digit leads over their Republican rivals. A new Quinnipiac poll in Connecticut also finds  a Democratic lead in hypothetical matchups, but with the candidates FAR closer to each other: Lamont edges Foley, 38% to 36%, and beats Fedele, 41% to 32%. Malloy beats Foley, 37% to 33%, and leads Fedele, 37% to 31%.

With Chris Dodd bowing out for reelection, a new Public Policy Polling survey in Connecticut reports that Democratic Attorney General Richard Blumenthal leads all three Republicans in the U.S. Senate race by at least 30 points. Blumenthal bests Republicans Rob Simmons, 59% to 28%; Linda McMahon, 60% to 28%; and Peter Schiff, 63% to 23%. PPP writes: "Blumenthal is unusually popular, especially in hyper partisan times when voters like few politicians. 59% have a favorable opinion of him to just 19% who see him negatively. It's no surprise that he's liked by 71% of Democrats and 60% of independents, but even Republicans view him favorably by a 37/35 margin. It doesn't take a lot of hands to count the number of Democratic politicians with positive numbers among GOP voters these days... It would take an epic collapse for him not to be Connecticut's next Senator."

In another sign that Democrats may suffer loses in the 2010 mid-term election, Sens. Christopher Dodd (D-CT), Blanche Lincoln (D-AR) and Harry Reid (D-NV) all now have disapproval ratings above 50%, according to recent polling. As Tom Jensen observes: "Politics is full of surprises and who knows what unexpected things will happen in the next year but if I had to pick three Senators running for reelection right now who will be cleaning out their offices at this time next year it would be Dodd, Lincoln, and Reid. Once voters have decided the disapprove of you it's very hard to overcome that. "

According to a new CNN/Opinion Research Survey, CT Independent Sen. Joe Lieberman's favorable rating with Americans has dropped almost 10-points in the past two weeks, from 40% to 31%. Perhaps most ominously for his political future, Lieberman's greatest decline--a 14-point drop--came among independents.

The notion that Democratic US Senator Chris Dodd of Connecticut is one of the most vulnerable incumbents is borne out by a new Rasmussen Reports survey. The poll finds Dodd attracting just 35% to 40% of the vote against three possible Republican challengers: "Former GOP Congressman Rob Simmons is still his toughest opponent, leading Dodd 48% to 35%. Seven percent (7%) prefer some other candidate in this contest, and 11% are undecided. Those figures are a slight improvement for Simmons since September. The newest Republican in the race, Linda McMahon, the ex-CEO of World Wrestling Entertainment, earns 44% of the vote to Dodd’s 38%. Eight percent (8%) opt for another candidate, with nine percent (9%) not sure. Long-shot candidate Peter Shiff, the widely-known president of Euro Pacific Capital, is essentially even with Dodd and holds a one-point edge, 40% to 39%. In their race, eight percent (8%) like some other candidate, and 14% are undecided."

One reason why Republican Gov. Jodi Rell of CT has chosen not to seek reelection: recent polls show her vulnerable next year. A new Quinnipiac University Poll reports that "in an early look at the 2010 election for Connecticut Governor, Secretary of State Susan Bysiewicz runs best among possible Democratic challengers, trailing Republican incumbent Jodi Rell 46 - 40 percent . . . Gov. Rell leads 91 - 5 percent among Republicans and 56 - 26 percent among independent voters, while Bysiewicz leads 74 - 12 percent among Democrats. Businessman Ned Lamont trails Rell 53 - 33 percent and Stamford Mayor Dan Malloy loses 52 - 33 percent . . .  In a Democratic primary match up, Bysiewicz gets 26 percent to 23 percent for Lamont, with 9 percent for Malloy. No other contender tops 3 percent." Still with Rell under 50% in one match up and just grazing the halfway mark in two others, her numbers do not look particularly strong for reelection. 

According to a recent poll, Democratic incumbent Senator Chris Dodd lags behind his hypothetical GOP challenger in his 2010 reelection race in Connecticut: Dodd trails Republican Rob Simmons, a former three-term congressman, by a significant margin. Simmons leads Dodd 49% to 39% percent  Businessman and former Ireland Ambassador Tom Foley, virtually unknown to Connecticut voters, also tops Dodd 43% to 40%.

A Quinnipiac University survey suggests that the propects of incumbent Democratic  Senator Christopher Dodd have much improved in his 2010 reelection bid: The poll finds Dodd gaining on former Rep. Rob Simmons (R-CT). However, Simmons still leads by six points, 45% to 39%, in a 2010 Senate match up. Simmons led by 16 points in early April. Against State Sen. Sam Caligiuri (R), Dodd leads 41% to 39%." Still much work lies ahead for dodd if he is to move into a comfortable position for reelection. PollTrack, at this early stage, rates the race a toss-up.

As if we needed another sign of the unpopularity of Connecticut Democratic US Senator Christopher Dodd, a local newspaper reports that "Dodd appears to have looked everywhere but his home state to fuel what pundits anticipate will be one of the most hotly contested races in the nation in 2010. The five-term incumbent reported raising just $4,250 from five Connecticut residents during the first three months of the year while raking in $604,745 from nearly 400 individuals living outside the state. While incumbents often turn to special interests for early campaign fundraising, Dodd's out-of-state total seems unusually high and comes at a time when he has been plagued by poor approval ratings among state voters." The paper concludes, ominously for Dodd: "The meager state fundraising effort also seems antithetical to a campaign strategy to rebuild confidence among Connecticut voters that he is on their side."

Nevertheless, according to the Boston Globe,  a support no more important than the president continues to express confidence in Connecticut's junior senator: "I can't say it any clearer: I will be helping Chris Dodd because he deserves the help. Chris is going through a rough patch. He just has an extraordinary record of accomplishment, and I think the people in Connecticut will come to recognize that... He always has his constituencies at heart, and he's somebody I'm going to be relying on and working very closely with to shepherd through the types of regulatory reforms we need."

The latest poll numbers in Connecticut suggerst that incumbent US Senator Chris Dodd may be in trouble in his 2010 election bid. As Time Magazine reports, "Dodd is looking increasingly vulnerable. The silver-haired father of two young girls is facing his toughest re-election fight ever, and he doesn't even have an opponent yet. (CNBC pundit Larry Kudlow and former GOP Representative Rob Simmons have both expressed interest in running.) In a January Quinnipiac poll, 51% of Connecticut voters said they would not vote for Dodd in 2010. 'It's the subject matter — people are watching their tax dollars go into institutions and they wonder when it's going to get better and they wonder where it's going," Dodd says. "I don't find people trying to elbow me out of the way trying to take over jurisdiction of the Banking Committee.'"

Connecticut voters are growing increasingly negative about Joe Lieberman, the Democrat turned-independent who endorsed Republican John McCain for president in this cycle. According to a new Quinnipiac Poll, BOTH of the state's "U.S. Senators get their lowest approval ratings ever, a negative 38% to 54% for Sen. Joseph Lieberman and a lackluster 47% to 41% for Sen. Christopher Dodd." Two questions: will Lieberman be vulnerable in 2012? And who will be his likely Dempcratic and Republican challengers. And will their split once, once again allow Lieberman to retain his seat.