In an indication that the incumbent Democratic senior US Senator is New Jersey may be loosing ground politically in his state, a new Fairleigh Dickinson PublicMind Poll reports that Republican Tom Kean Jr. is in a statistical dead heat with Democrat Bob Menendez in a hypothetical rematch of their 2006 U.S. Senate race, 39% to 38%, with 17% undecided. Although the race is more than two years away, the poll suggests the dramatic erosion of Democratic support in the state following the defeat of incumbent Democratic Governor Jon Corzine last November.

The Washington Post reports that former Republican US Senator George Allen "is thinking pretty seriously about public office, including a possible rematch against Democrat Jim Webb, who defeated Allen in 2006 by fewer than 10,000 votes." A just released poll (though it was taken in August) by Public Policy Polling in Virginia finds Allen leading Webb by an insignificant 44% to 43%. PPP writes: "The 'Macaca' incident certainly played a part in Allen's 2006 loss, but its being a terrible year for Republicans nationally may have played a bigger role. He would have survived in most other election cycles, and his present numbers are an indication that he's far from unelectable in the future."

Though his term as Nebraska's US Senator does not end until 2012, there is speculation that Democrat Ben Nelson may be in trouble in his home state. As Nebraska's Journal Star reports: "As a fresh poll measured the political cost of Sen. Ben Nelson's health reform vote, he prepared Tuesday to take his case directly to Nebraskans during Wednesday night's Holiday Bowl game. Nelson will air a new TV ad in which he attempts to debunk opposition claims that the Senate legislation represents a government takeover, and he makes the case for health care reform . . . The political damage Nelson may have incurred in providing the critical 60th vote that cleared the way for Senate passage of the health care reform bill showed up Tuesday in a poll released by Rasmussen Reports. The telephone survey of 500 Nebraskans, conducted Monday, suggested Republican Gov. Dave Heineman would defeat Nelson in a potential 2012 Senate race by a 61-30 margin. The poll showed Nelson with a 55 percent unfavorable rating and 64 percent disapproval for Democratic health care reform legislation."

While Republican Minnesota governor Pawlenty remains popular, most expect him to run for president in 2012, but fail to achieve his party's nomination: "53% approve of Pawlenty’s job performance, including 28% who Strongly Approve . . . 46% don’t approve of the Republican governor, with 26% who Strongly Disapprove. . . 59% of the state’s voters now say it is at least somewhat likely that Pawlenty will run for president, including 17% who say it’s Very Likely he will do so. Twenty-nine percent (29%) say the governor is not very or not at all likely to seek the White House. But just 37% say Pawlenty is even somewhat likely to win the GOP presidential nomination in 2012. Only seven percent (7%) say it’s Very Likely. For 55%, it’s not likely that their governor will be the party’s standard-bearer."

How game is Caroline Kennedy for a nearly endless stream of campaigning across the geographically diverse and enormous expanse of New York state? If she becomes New York's next US Senator--via appointed by Democratic Govener David Paterson--she would have to do just that. She would need to win election outright in 2010 to serve the remainder of Hillary Clinton's unexpired term. Then, she'd have to run again in 2012 . . . for reelection. The notoriously private Kennedy may find the prospect of nonstop campaigning a daunting, if not impossible task. Thus a report out yesterday in the New York Post: "The odds of Gov. Paterson choosing Caroline Kennedy . . .  are no better than 20-1, a source close to the governor said yesterday. The source was responding to news that Sen. Ted Kennedy, Robert F. Kennedy Jr. and other family members have been pushing hard for Caroline to replace Clinton. 'It looks to me like [Caroline's cousin] Bobby Kennedy may be trying to push Caroline more than Caroline is pushing herself," a Paterson administration source told The Post.'" Stay tuned.