Presidential Race Maps Writing on the Wall

2012 US SENATE RACE CHART 52 DEM 4-TCTC 44 REP

Posted Oct 27, 2012 at 10:49 PM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

2012 US SENATE RACE CHART

52 DEM       4
-TCTC        44 REP

SAFE DEMOCRATIC

CA, DE, ME, MD, MN, NJ, NY, PA, RI, WA, VT, WV

LEANING DEMOCRATIC

CT: Murphy (D) vs McMahon (R)

FL: Nelson (D) vs McGillicuddy (R)

HI: Hirono (D) vs Lingle (R)
MI: Stebenow (D) vs Hoekstra (R)

MA: Warren (D) vs Brown (R

MO: McGaskill (D) vs Akin (R)

NM: Heinrich (D) vs Wilson (R)
OH
: Brown (D) vs Mandel (R)

WI: Baldwin (D) vs Thompson (R)

 

TOO-CLOSE-TO-CALL

 

IN: Donnelly (D) vs Murdock (R)

MT : Tester (D) vs Rehberg (R)
NE: Kerry (D) vs Deb Fischer (R)

VA: Kaine (D) vs Allen (R)

 

LEANING REPUBLICAN

AZ: Carmona (D) vs Flake (R)

ND : Heitkamp (D) vs Berg (R)

NV: Berkley (D) vs Heller (R)




SAFE REPUBLICAN

MS,  TN, TX, UT, WY

US Senate Race Chart Coming Soon

Posted Aug 17, 2012 at 9:39 AM
Maurice Berger

PollTrack's US Senate Race Chart will be coming soon. With PollTrack's outstanding track record on predicting the outcome of US Senate races--and the potential of a very close overall race for control of the Senate--this year's chart should be very exciting.

POLLTRACK in 2011: Stay Tuned for Upcoming Coverage

Posted Nov 04, 2010 at 8:19 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

In the coming weeks, PollTrack will introduce an innovative map devoted to tracking Election 2012, specifically the relative state of the incumbent Democratic president and a generic Republican challenger in their state-by-state hunt for electoral votes. Two years out, PollTrack will test the mood of all 50 states (and DC), gauging the mood of the country, its regions, and states as the current president nears his bid for reelection.

WRITING ON THE WALL will continue to report on statewide trends for local and national political figures, taking a look at upcoming local races in 2011, and their implications for the upcoming national cycle in 2012.

PRESIDENTIAL: In addition to our innovating tracking of the 2012 Election, the presidential page will continue to follow the relative popularity of the Obama administration as well as national trends for the Republican and Democratic Part as well as any independent parties.

VOICES ON THE GROUND: Will resume next year with reports from Americans on the ground--political and cultural figures and interested citizens, alike--reporting on local political and cultural trends leading up to the 2012 cycle, from the perspective that matters most: with voters on the ground.


So stay tuned to PollTrack.

Independents Determined House Outcome

Posted Nov 02, 2010 at 1:45 PM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

A problem for Democrats in the House--and potentially for the President's reelection--is not the enthusiasm of GOP voters (which was high). The bigger problem is the dramatic shift of Independent voters, who gave Obama a decisive edge in 2008. This year, according to Exit Polls, Independent voters broke for Republican House candidates by a widely margin: 55% to 40% for the Democrats, a figure in line with the 1994 midterms, in which Republicans made substantial gains. The Democrats will need to win these voters back in order to be competitive in 2012.

NJ US Senate 2012: Democrat Menendez Loosing Ground

Posted Mar 05, 2010 at 1:29 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

In an indication that the incumbent Democratic senior US Senator is New Jersey may be loosing ground politically in his state, a new Fairleigh Dickinson PublicMind Poll reports that Republican Tom Kean Jr. is in a statistical dead heat with Democrat Bob Menendez in a hypothetical rematch of their 2006 U.S. Senate race, 39% to 38%, with 17% undecided. Although the race is more than two years away, the poll suggests the dramatic erosion of Democratic support in the state following the defeat of incumbent Democratic Governor Jon Corzine last November.

VA US Senate 2012: Is Republican George Allen Thinking About A Comeback?

Posted Jan 08, 2010 at 2:20 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

The Washington Post reports that former Republican US Senator George Allen "is thinking pretty seriously about public office, including a possible rematch against Democrat Jim Webb, who defeated Allen in 2006 by fewer than 10,000 votes." A just released poll (though it was taken in August) by Public Policy Polling in Virginia finds Allen leading Webb by an insignificant 44% to 43%. PPP writes: "The 'Macaca' incident certainly played a part in Allen's 2006 loss, but its being a terrible year for Republicans nationally may have played a bigger role. He would have survived in most other election cycles, and his present numbers are an indication that he's far from unelectable in the future."

Is Ben Nelson Vulnerable In Nebraska?

Posted Jan 04, 2010 at 2:07 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

Though his term as Nebraska's US Senator does not end until 2012, there is speculation that Democrat Ben Nelson may be in trouble in his home state. As Nebraska's Journal Star reports: "As a fresh poll measured the political cost of Sen. Ben Nelson's health reform vote, he prepared Tuesday to take his case directly to Nebraskans during Wednesday night's Holiday Bowl game. Nelson will air a new TV ad in which he attempts to debunk opposition claims that the Senate legislation represents a government takeover, and he makes the case for health care reform . . . The political damage Nelson may have incurred in providing the critical 60th vote that cleared the way for Senate passage of the health care reform bill showed up Tuesday in a poll released by Rasmussen Reports. The telephone survey of 500 Nebraskans, conducted Monday, suggested Republican Gov. Dave Heineman would defeat Nelson in a potential 2012 Senate race by a 61-30 margin. The poll showed Nelson with a 55 percent unfavorable rating and 64 percent disapproval for Democratic health care reform legislation."

Minnesotans Expect Their Governor To Run For President (And Fail)

Posted May 27, 2009 at 1:48 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

 

While Republican Minnesota governor Pawlenty remains popular, most expect him to run for president in 2012, but fail to achieve his party's nomination: "53% approve of Pawlenty’s job performance, including 28% who Strongly Approve . . . 46% don’t approve of the Republican governor, with 26% who Strongly Disapprove. . . 59% of the state’s voters now say it is at least somewhat likely that Pawlenty will run for president, including 17% who say it’s Very Likely he will do so. Twenty-nine percent (29%) say the governor is not very or not at all likely to seek the White House. But just 37% say Pawlenty is even somewhat likely to win the GOP presidential nomination in 2012. Only seven percent (7%) say it’s Very Likely. For 55%, it’s not likely that their governor will be the party’s standard-bearer."

 

Caroline Kennedy To Replace Clinton: May Not Be A Good Fit

Posted Dec 09, 2008 at 2:17 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

How game is Caroline Kennedy for a nearly endless stream of campaigning across the geographically diverse and enormous expanse of New York state? If she becomes New York's next US Senator--via appointed by Democratic Govener David Paterson--she would have to do just that. She would need to win election outright in 2010 to serve the remainder of Hillary Clinton's unexpired term. Then, she'd have to run again in 2012 . . . for reelection. The notoriously private Kennedy may find the prospect of nonstop campaigning a daunting, if not impossible task. Thus a report out yesterday in the New York Post: "The odds of Gov. Paterson choosing Caroline Kennedy . . .  are no better than 20-1, a source close to the governor said yesterday. The source was responding to news that Sen. Ted Kennedy, Robert F. Kennedy Jr. and other family members have been pushing hard for Caroline to replace Clinton. 'It looks to me like [Caroline's cousin] Bobby Kennedy may be trying to push Caroline more than Caroline is pushing herself," a Paterson administration source told The Post.'" Stay tuned.