Presidential Race Maps Writing on the Wall

FINAL 2012 US SENATE RACE CHART 54 DEM 0-TCTC 46 REP

Posted Nov 05, 2012 at 5:34 PM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

2012 US SENATE RACE CHART

55 DEM       0
-TCTC        45 REP



SAFE DEMOCRATIC

CA, DE, ME, MD, MN, NJ, NY, PA, RI, WA, VT, WV

LEANING DEMOCRATIC

CT: Murphy (D) vs McMahon (R)

FL: Nelson (D) vs McGillicuddy (R)

HI: Hirono (D) vs Lingle (R)

IN: Donnelly (D) vs Murdock (R)


MI: Stebenow (D) vs Hoekstra (R)

MA: Warren (D) vs Brown (R

MO: McGaskill (D) vs Akin (R)
MT : Tester (D) vs Rehberg (R)

NM: Heinrich (D) vs Wilson (R)
OH
: Brown (D) vs Mandel (R)

VA: Kaine (D) vs Allen (R)

WI: Baldwin (D) vs Thompson (R)

LEANING REPUBLICAN

AZ: Carmona (D) vs Flake (R)

ND : Heitkamp (D) vs Berg (R)

NE: Kerry (D) vs Deb Fischer (R)

NV: Berkley (D) vs Heller (R)


SAFE REPUBLICAN

MS,  TN, TX, UT, WY

2012 US SENATE RACE CHART 54 DEM 1-TCTC 45 REP

Posted Nov 05, 2012 at 11:16 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

2012 US SENATE RACE CHART

54 DEM       1
-TCTC        45 REP



SAFE DEMOCRATIC

CA, DE, ME, MD, MN, NJ, NY, PA, RI, WA, VT, WV

LEANING DEMOCRATIC

CT: Murphy (D) vs McMahon (R)

FL: Nelson (D) vs McGillicuddy (R)

HI: Hirono (D) vs Lingle (R)

IN: Donnelly (D) vs Murdock (R)


MI: Stebenow (D) vs Hoekstra (R)

MA: Warren (D) vs Brown (R

MO: McGaskill (D) vs Akin (R)

NM: Heinrich (D) vs Wilson (R)
OH
: Brown (D) vs Mandel (R)

VA: Kaine (D) vs Allen (R)

WI: Baldwin (D) vs Thompson (R)

 

TOO-CLOSE-TO-CALL


MT : Tester (D) vs Rehberg (R)

 

LEANING REPUBLICAN

AZ: Carmona (D) vs Flake (R)

ND : Heitkamp (D) vs Berg (R)

NE: Kerry (D) vs Deb Fischer (R)

NV: Berkley (D) vs Heller (R)


SAFE REPUBLICAN

MS,  TN, TX, UT, WY

2012 US SENATE RACE CHART 53 DEM 2-TCTC 45 REP

Posted Nov 04, 2012 at 1:04 PM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

2012 US SENATE RACE CHART

53 DEM       2
-TCTC        45 REP



SAFE DEMOCRATIC

CA, DE, ME, MD, MN, NJ, NY, PA, RI, WA, VT, WV

LEANING DEMOCRATIC

CT: Murphy (D) vs McMahon (R)

FL: Nelson (D) vs McGillicuddy (R)

HI: Hirono (D) vs Lingle (R)

IN: Donnelly (D) vs Murdock (R)

MI: Stebenow (D) vs Hoekstra (R)

MA: Warren (D) vs Brown (R

MO: McGaskill (D) vs Akin (R)

NM: Heinrich (D) vs Wilson (R)
OH
: Brown (D) vs Mandel (R)

WI: Baldwin (D) vs Thompson (R)

 

TOO-CLOSE-TO-CALL

 



MT : Tester (D) vs Rehberg (R)

VA: Kaine (D) vs Allen (R)

 

LEANING REPUBLICAN

AZ: Carmona (D) vs Flake (R)

ND : Heitkamp (D) vs Berg (R)

NE: Kerry (D) vs Deb Fischer (R)

NV: Berkley (D) vs Heller (R)




SAFE REPUBLICAN

MS,  TN, TX, UT, WY

CO and WA US Senate: Both Appear To Lean Blue

Posted Nov 03, 2010 at 3:31 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

According to polling analysis this morning, it appears that Democrat Bennet in Colorado and Democrat Murray in Washington have won their respective US Senate contests.

Final US Senate Distribution of Power, as of this morning: Democrats 53 seats, Republicans 47 seats.

In the Florida Governor's Race, it appears that Republic Scott has won.

Grayson Looses in Florida

Posted Nov 02, 2010 at 12:43 PM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

Congressman Alan Grayson has lost his reelection race in Florida. Bad news for the Democrats, re: keeping control of the House.

Projections At 8:00 PM

Posted Nov 02, 2010 at 12:04 PM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

A few key races called:

New Hamphire US Senate: Ayotte wins for the GOP

Delaware US Senate: Chris Coons Wins for the Democrat

Florida: Marco Rubio Wins for the GOP

The three races are on target for their respective parties. No upsets. PollTrack correctly picked all three

Latest Polls In Races For Governor

Posted Oct 15, 2010 at 1:20 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

Here are the latest polls in competitive governor's races:

ARIZONA: Rocky Mountain GOP Gov. Jan Brewer leads Democrat Terry Goddard, 46% to 35%.

FLORIDA: Public Policy Polling Democrat Alex Sink leads Republican Rick Scott, 46% to 41%.

HAWAII: Honolulu Civil Beat Democrat Neil Abercrombie leads Republican Duke Aiona, 47% to 44%.

MAINE: Critical Insights Republican Paul LePage leads Democrat Libby Mitchell, 32% to 26%, with Independent Eliot Cutler at 11%; Rasmussen reports a closer race, with LePage just edging Mitchell, 35% to 32%, and Cutler at 21%.

MASSACHUSETTS: Suffolk University/7News Democrat Deval Patrick leads Republican Charlie Baker, 46% to 39%, with Independent Tim Cahill at 10%.

MICHIGAN: Baydoun Consulting/Foster McCollum Republican Rick Snyder leads Democrat Virg Bernero, 50% to 37%.

NEVADA: Public Policy Polling survey Republican Brian Sandoval's leads Democrat Rory Reid, 52% to 43%.

PENNSYLVANIA: Magellan Strategies survey Republican Tom Corbett leads Democrat Dan Onorato, 48% to 38% with 11% undecided.

RHODE ISLAND: Quest Research Democrat Frank Caprio leads Independent Lincoln Chafee, 37% to 33%, with Republican John Robitaille at 22%.

SOUTH CAROLINA: Winthrop University poll Republican Nikki Haley leads Democrat Vincent Sheheen, 46% to 37%.

More Polling In Competitive US Senate Races

Posted Oct 14, 2010 at 1:01 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

More polling in competitive US Senate Races:

FLORIDA: Quinnipiac Republican Marco Rubio swamps Independent Gov. Charlie Crist, 44% to 30%, with Democratic Rep. Kendrick Meek at 22%.

NEVADA: Suffolk University Democratic US Sen. Harry Reid edges Republican Sharron Angle, 46% to 43%. Rasmussen Angle leads Reid, 49% to 48%.

WASHINGTON: CNN/Time/Opinion Research Democratic Sen. Patty Murray leads Republican Dino Rossi, 51% to 43%.

WEST VIRGINIA: Rasmussen Democratic Gov. Joe Manchin trails Republican John Raese, 49% to 46%,\.

WISCONSIN: CNN/Time/Opinion Research Republican Ron Johnson leads Democratic Sen. Russ Feingold, 52% to 44%.

Georgia Governor 2010: Slight GOP Advantage

Posted Sep 20, 2010 at 2:16 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

A SurveyUSA poll in the Georgia U.S. Senate race reports that Republican candidate Nathan Deal holds a considerable lead among likely voters over Democratic challenger and former Gov. Roy Barnes, 49% to 38%, with Libertarian candidate John Monds at 9%. Another poll, by InsiderAdvantage/WSB-TV poll finds former Barnes tied with Deal in the race for governor, 42% to 42%.

PollTrack Rates The Race Leaning Republican

Will GOP Enthusiasm Help Rubio In Florida's US Senate Race?

Posted Aug 18, 2010 at 1:20 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

The big question hanging over Gov. Charlie Crist's independent bid for US Senate in Florida concerns the relative enthusiasm of voters: Will the strong enthusiasm polls are picking up among GOP voters ultimately help Republican Marc Rubio in November? A new Miami Herald/St. Petersburg Times/Ipsos poll spots "a potentially major advantage for Rubio . . . that three-quarters of Republicans said they were certain to go the polls, while less than half of Democrats said they were a sure bet. The stronger motivation among Republican voters reflects polls nationwide and has boosted the party's hopes of taking back Congress in November."

FL US Senator 2010: Independent Crist With Slight Lead

Posted Aug 17, 2010 at 1:32 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

A new Miami Herald/St. Petersburg Times/Ipsos poll in Florida reports that independent candidate--and incumbent Republican Governor--Charlie Crist holds a tiny lead afainst Republican Marco Rubio in the U.S. Senate race, 32% to 30%, with Democrat Jeff Greene well behind at 19%. If Rep. Kendrick Meek secures the Democratic nomination, Crist's lead widens to +4%, beating Rubio 33% to 29%, while Meek gets 17%.

Interestingly, Crist's job approval ratings--as Florida Governor-- "have dropped to an all-time low for him -- 44% -- and represent the lowest posted by a Florida governor in 16 years," according to a recent Mason-Dixon poll.

FL Governor 2010: Tight Race

Posted Aug 04, 2010 at 1:32 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

A Quinnipiac poll in Florida reports a very close three-way race for governor between Democrat Alex Sink, and either potential Republican candidate, Rick Scott or Bill McCollum, and independent candidate Bud Chiles. Scott leads the pack at 29%, followed by Sink at 27% and Chiles 14%; McCollum would lead with 27%, followed by Sink at 26%, and Chiles at 14%.

FL U.S. Senate 2010: Another Poll Shows Crist Ahead In Independent Bid

Posted Aug 03, 2010 at 1:09 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

Another poll suggests that independent Charlie Crist--currently incumbent Republican governor--may have the lead in the state's race for U.S. Senator. The just released Florida Poll reports that Crist holds a significant +11% lead in the three-way race: He now has the support of 41%, followed by Republican Marco Rubio at 30% and Democratic Rep. Kendrick Meek at 12%. If Jeff Greene is the Democratic nominee, Crist wins, but by a smaller margin: in that scenario, he gets 37% to Rubio's 29% and Greene's 16%. Earlier in the week, a Quinnipiac poll reported that Crist was leading, but by a smaller margin. In that poll, he garnered 37%, followed by Rubio at 32% and Greene at 17%.

FL U.S. Senate 2010: Crist Far Ahead?

Posted Jun 21, 2010 at 1:49 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

While most polls show the Florida U.S. Senate race close, a new Florida Chamber of Commerce poll tells a different story. It shows independent candidate, Gov. Charlie Crist widening his lead over Republican Marco Rubio and Democratic Rep. Kendrick Meek. The poll reports that Crist leads the pack with 42%, followed by Rubio at 31% and Meek at 14%.

CA US Senate: Tom Cambell Leads Republican Primary Pack

Posted May 25, 2010 at 1:26 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

A new DailyKos/Research 2000 poll in California reports that Tom Campbell now leads the Republican U.S. Senate race with 37%, followed by Carly Fiorina at 22% and Chuck DeVore at 14%.

FL U.S. Senate 2010: Another Poll Shows Crist Ahead In Independent Bid

Posted May 24, 2010 at 12:39 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

The Miami Herald reports that Charlie Crist holds a narrow lead in the Florida U.S. Senate race, "despite nearly half of the voters saying he made a "purely political'' decision to bolt the GOP and run as an independent candidate in the Nov. 2 general election." The new St. Petersburg Times/Miami Herald/Bay News 9 poll finds that of the registered voters surveyed, 30 percent were for Crist, 27 percent for Republican Marco Rubio and 15 percent for Democratic front-runner Kendrick Meek."

FL U.S. Senate 2010: Another Poll Shows Crist Ahead In Independent Bid

Posted May 07, 2010 at 1:34 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

For GOP US Senate hopeful, Florida Governor Charlie Crist may have made a smart move by deciding to run as an independent: another poll, this one from Mason Dixon poll, finds Crist leading a three-way race for U.S. Senate with 38%, followed by Republican Marco Rubio at 32% and Democratic Rep. Kendrick Meek at 19%. Interestingly, the poll reports that "More than half of Crist's supporters are Democrats, who overwhelmingly approve of his defection from the GOP and recent veto of a controversial teacher tenure bill."

FL U.S. Senate 2010: New Poll Shows Crist Ahead In Independent Bid

Posted May 04, 2010 at 1:14 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

A newly released McLaughlin & Associates poll in Florida suggest that incumbent Republican Governor Charlie Crist may have made a good move by dropping out of the GOP primary for U.S. Senate and running as an independent. According to the survey, he now leads the race with 33%, followed by Republican Marco Rubio at 29% and Democratic Rep. Kendrick Meek at 15%. Who does Crist hurt more? The survey shows Crist taking more votes from Meek than Rubio, actually besting Meeks with Democrats.Any trends here? With a large number of undecided voters and Crist and Rubio relatively close, PollTrack rates the race Too-Close-To-Call.

FL U.S. Senate 2010: Can Crist Win As An Independent?

Posted Apr 26, 2010 at 12:57 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

Can incumbent GOP Governor Charlie Crist win reelection running as an independent candidate if he drops out of the Republican primary? A new Rasmussen survey in Florida reports that he would not be the front runner at this point: presumptive Republican nominee Marco Rubio leads with 37% of likely voters, followed by Crist at 30% and Democratic Rep. Kendrick Meek at 22%. 

FL Us Seante 2010: Crist Could Win As Independent

Posted Apr 19, 2010 at 12:59 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

A Quinnipiac survey in Florida reports that in the Republican primnary for US Senate, Marco Rubio holds a commanding lead over Gov. Charlie Crist, 56% to 33%. In general election match ups, Rubio holds a very modest lead over Democrat Rep. Kendrick Meek (D), 42% to 38% (Crist's lead over Meek is wider, 48% to 34%.). But what if Crist, now poised to loose his Republican primary bid, runs as an independent in the general? According to Quinnipiac, he would win by a slight margin, with Crist at 32%, followed by Rubio at 30% and Meek at 24%. 

FL Governor 2010: Republican With Solid Lead

Posted Mar 17, 2010 at 1:45 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

A new Public Policy Polling survey in Florida shows Republican Bill McCollum with a considerable +13%-lead over Democrat Alex Sink, 44% to 31%

FL US Seante 2010: Republican Has The Edge

Posted Feb 02, 2010 at 1:15 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

According to PollTrack's first read of the 2010 US Senate Race for Florida's open seat, the GOP has a considerable advantage. PollTrack First Call: Likely Republican

FL Republican Gov. Christ Well Situated For Either 2010 Reelection or US Senate Run

Posted Feb 24, 2009 at 1:56 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

According to a new Quinnipiac University poll, incumbent Republican Governor Charlie Crist is well situated for either reelection or a US Senate run in 2010. He would be heavily favored to win the GOP nomination for U.S. Senate and beats a generic Democrat handily in a general election match up, 48% to 25%. However, a plurality of respondents want Crist to remain as governor with 57% favoring his re-election.

Republican Gov. Christ Early Favorite in 2010 FL US Senate Race

Posted Feb 13, 2009 at 1:50 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

Political Wire reports that a soon to be released Strategic Vision poll in Florida shows Gov. Charlie Crist (R) the runaway favorite in the 2010 U.S. Senate race should he decide to run: "Among Democrats, Rep. Ron Klein leads the pack with 12%, followed by Rep. Kendrick Meek at 10% and 66% still undecided. Among Republicans, Crist leads the field with 54% support, followed by Rep. Connie Mack at 14%. In general election match ups, Crist beats each of the Democrats by more than 25 points, though pollster David Johnson suggests name recognition is the key factor at this point in the cycle."

Florida US Senate: Jeb Bush in 2010?

Posted Dec 17, 2008 at 1:14 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

Will Jeb Bush, former governor of Florida and younger brother of George W. Bush, run for the US Senate seat being vacated by Mel Martinez in 2010? Florida voters seem to think so according to a new poll: While president Bush is vastll unpopular in Florida, 78% of Florida voters say former Governor Jeb Bush is likely to run. 45% believe Bush is very likely to run and 33% say he is somewhat likely to do so.84% of Republicans believe he’ll run along with 79% of Democrats. Ca he win? Quite possibly: "Jeb Bush is viewed favorably by 60% of Florida voters, including 39% with a Very Favorable opinion. Forty percent (40%) offer a negative view, including 19% with a Very Unfavorable opinion. Favorable opinions are offered by 78% of Republicans, 46% of Democrats and 54% of those not affiliated with either major party."

Florida US Senate: Bush Mulls Run

Posted Dec 03, 2008 at 6:14 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

The departure of George W. Bush on 20 January 2009 may not end the Bush dynasty in American politics. According to sources close to former Florida governor Jeb Bush, he is considering a run for the state's US Senate seat in 2010, a seat currently held by Republican Mel Martinez who announced Tuesday that he will not seek reelection: Asked whether he was interested in running for the seat then, Bush, the younger brother of the president, "told Politico by e-mail Tuesday night: 'I am considering it.' A source close to Bush said he'll be thoughtful and methodical about the decision-making process. He will consider the impact a race would have on his family and his business and whether or not the U.S. Senate is the best forum from which to continue his advocacy for issues such as education, immigration and GOP solutions to health care reform." <!-- /* Style Definitions */ p.MsoNormal, li.MsoNormal, div.MsoNormal {mso-style-parent:""; margin:0in; margin-bottom:.0001pt; mso-pagination:widow-orphan; font-size:12.0pt; font-family:"Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family:"Times New Roman";} @page Section1 {size:8.5in 11.0in; margin:1.0in 1.25in 1.0in 1.25in; mso-header-margin:.5in; mso-footer-margin:.5in; mso-paper-source:0;} div.Section1 {page:Section1;} -->

 

Early Voting Unprecedented In The South

Posted Oct 23, 2008 at 8:49 AM
PollTrack Election Watch

Early Voting Unprecedented In The South: A record number of early voters have turned up in a number of southern states. In Georgia, early voting is double what it had been at this point in 2004. As of Wednesday, some 825,000 had cast their ballots, about 15 percent of Georgia's registered voters. In Florida, about 150,000 people casts votes this Monday and Tuesday alone. And in North Carolina more than 500,000 voters have already cast ballots. And while African-African early voting is at 2004 levels in some states (such as Ohio), it's record breaking thus far in NC and GA. Click here for the Associated Press coverage of the dramatic increase in early voting in the south.