Presidential Race Maps Writing on the Wall

Georgia Governor 2010: Close

Posted Aug 27, 2010 at 1:57 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

A new InsiderAdvantage/WSB-TV poll in Georgia reports that Republican Nathan Deal holds a +4% lead over former Democratic Gov. Roy Barnes in the race for governor, 45% to 41%.

PollTrack Rates The Race Leaning Republican

Atlanta Mayoral Runoff: Kasim Reed Declared Winner

Posted Dec 07, 2009 at 1:30 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

For those of you following the mayoral runoff in Atlanta--with its razor thin margin of victory on 1 December: Kasim Reed has now been certified the winner, though it appears likely that his opponent, Mary Norwood "plans to ask for a recount. But Reed said he must act as though he will be Atlanta’s next mayor. Only a few weeks remain before his new job starts, he said, and he has to begin the complex task of transition."

Chambliss Victory: A Problem For Al Franken?

Posted Dec 03, 2008 at 4:26 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

Is Republican Saxby Chambliss' decisive victory in yesterday's Georgia US Senate runoff a problem for Al Franken. The Hotline Blog seems to think so. In an interesting and perecptive analysis of the political implications of Al Franken's underdog status in the Minnesota recount, Hotline writes: "Sorry Jim Martin, but Al Franken might be the biggest loser tonight. How likely is it that Democratic senators will push for Franken -- or vote not to seat Sen. Norm Coleman should the MN race remain tight after a recount -- now that the filibuster-proof advantage has eluded the party? Such a move is a rare happening, but tonight's GA results seems to make an aggressive move on Franken's behalf less likely." With each step towards compleyion of the Minnesota recount, Franken's chances appear to diminish. Given Franken's hint that he might take the question of the validity of the Minnesota recount results to the US Senate itself (the Constitution provides that the House and Senate serve as “judge of qualifications and elections of its members”), ABC News wonders whether Senate Majority leader Harry Reid would even take up the challenge at this point: "Would Reid want to take such a politically explosive step if it wouldn’t even bring him 60 votes? Particularly when Republicans will control at least 41 votes in the new Senate -- enough to filibuster any such move, and effectively kill it?" the answer is probably no, especially after last night's results.

US Senate Race Chart: DEM-58, REP-41, With Minnesota Still Undecided

Posted Dec 02, 2008 at 1:05 PM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

With one seat still undecided in Minnesota, the makeup of the incoming US Senate is Democrat-58, Republican-41.

NBC NEWS: Republican Saxby Chambliss Declared Winner In Georgia US Senate Runoff

Posted Dec 02, 2008 at 1:03 PM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

NBC news has just declared Republican incumbent, Saxby Chambliss, the winner in his race gainast Democratic challenger in the Georgia US Senate runoff.

Georgia US Senate Runoff: With 99% Counted It's Chambliss (r)-57%, Martin (d)-43%

Posted Dec 02, 2008 at 12:32 PM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

With  With 99% of the vote counted in the US Senate runnoff in Georgia, it's Chambliss (r)-57%, Martin (d)-43%

Insider Advantage Analysis: Turnout Favors Republican Chambliss in Georgia Runoff

Posted Dec 02, 2008 at 11:28 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

According to a late analysis of today's turnout by Insider Advantage, it looks like Republican Saxby Chambliss is poised to retain his seat in the Georgia US Senate runoff: "Based on our early evaluation of turnout in the Georgia runoff, it appears Republicans have successfully defended Saxby Chambliss’ U.S. Senate seat against Democrat Jim Martin. The four-week runoff campaign focused national attention on the Peach State and brought John McCain, Sarah Palin, Bill Clinton and Al Gore to the state to help their parties' respective candidates drive up turnout. Barack Obama cut an ad and a robo-call tape for Martin but didn't risk his prestige on the race through a personal appearance."

Voting Light To Moderate In Georgia Runoff

Posted Dec 02, 2008 at 7:04 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

The US Senate runoff in Georgia is not producing the same level of voter enthusiasm as the November 4th presidential election. Precincts and polling stations across Georgia are reporting low to moderate voter turnout. The New York Times reports, for example, that at the Atlanta Public Library on Ponce de Leon Ave., where more than 1,600 people voted in the general election, only 400 people had voted by noon today.

Election Day In Georgia: Final POLLTRACK Average--Chambliss-51.7% to Martin-46%, REP + 5.7%

Posted Dec 02, 2008 at 1:43 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

Today is Election Day in Georgia, the runoff for the state's US Senate Seat. PollTrack's final average: Republican incumbent Saxby Chambliss-51.7% to Democratic Challenger Jim Martin-46%, REP + 5.7%.

Georgia US Senate Runoff: Chambliss Up +7, With Overwheling White Support

Posted Dec 01, 2008 at 5:52 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

On the strength of overwhelming support from white voters, Republican incumbent Saxby Chambiss leads Democratic challenger Jim Martin by +7% in tomorrow's Georgia US Senate runoff, 53% to 46%. Public Policy Polling’s final survey for the Georgia runoff "continues to find incumbent Republican Saxby Chambliss holding a solid advantage. He’s now extended his lead to 53-46 over challenger Jim Martin. Chambliss is leading 71-28 among whites planning to vote in the runoff. If Martin can’t improve on that, the electorate on Tuesday would have to be 34% African American for
him to win. Given that it was only 30% for the Presidential election and was a little under 23% during early voting that seems like it would be a stretch." These numbers confirm PollTrack's sense that Chambliss has the distinct advantage in tomorrow's race.

Georgia Runoff: Tunrout (And Its Racial Breakdown) Will Determine Outcome

Posted Dec 01, 2008 at 5:03 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

Will African-American voters turn out in record numbers--as they did for the presidential race in November--or will white voters carry the day in tomorrow's US Senate runoff in Georgia? Will today's visit from former Republican VP candidate Sarah Palin make a difference? As MSNBC explains: "The numbers game in the Georgia runoff is simple: Chambliss is hoping Palin will spike turnout among his base supporters, white evangelicals, while Martin was hoping Obama could spike turnout among his base, African-Americans. Turnout among both groups will be down, that's a fact. The question is which group will down more from Election Day? Answer that question, and you'll know the winner." PollTrack believes the odds favor Republican Saxby Chambliss: he continues to lead in all public opinion polls AND he just grazed the 50% mark on November 4th, even with historic African-American turnout. He's coming into a runoff where the black vote may be down from the presidential race AND he only needs only a handful of votes to take him over the 50% mark relative to November 4th. So Martin remains the underdog.

Early Voter Turnout High In Georgia

Posted Dec 01, 2008 at 1:36 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

Early--or "Advanced--voting ended in Georgia last Wednesday in the US Senate runoff, and from early analysis of the turnout, it looks like interest in the Saxby Chambliss (r) vs Jim Martin (d) bout runs fairly high: " Advance voting in the Georgia Senate runoff race ended Wednesday with one county setting a record voter turnout. Almost three thousand ballots were cast during the week long advanced voting period in Lowndes County. Election officials say more than one thousand voters cast ballots on the first day alone. At the close of polls Wednesday....turnout stood at nearly eleven point three percent... Typical turnout in previous runoff races has been about three percent." It's unclear, however, how this increase in early voting will affect the outcome of the Georgia runoff race.

Georgia US Senate: Research 2000 Poll Shows Republican Incumbent Up +6%

Posted Nov 28, 2008 at 1:51 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

A Research 2000 poll of likely voters in next Tuesday's Georgia US Senate runoff shows Republican incumbent Saxby Chambliss with a +6% lead over Democratic challenger Jim Martin, 52% to 46%.

Georgia US Senate: Republican Incumbent Has Lead

Posted Nov 24, 2008 at 6:38 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

In Georgia's U.S. Senate run off, a new Public Policy Polling survey reports that incumbent Republican Saxby Chambliss  has expanded his lead to six points over Jim Martin (D), 52% to 46%, an improvement from the three point advantage he held on election day. An increase in independent voter support accounts for most of Chambliss' increased lead.

Georgia US Senate Runoff: Poll Shows Close Race

Posted Nov 14, 2008 at 1:32 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

A new Research 2000/Daily Kos survey reports that next month's U.S. Senate run off looks close at this point. Sen. Saxby Chambliss (R-GA) narrowly leads challenger Jim Martin (D), 49% to 46%.

US Senate: One Recount, One Run-Off, And One Wait And See

Posted Nov 07, 2008 at 12:50 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

The results of the three uncalled US Senate races may not be known for a while. In Georgia, Republican incumbent Saxby Chambliss failed to reach the 50% + 1-vote threshold and is headed for a run-off with his Democratic challenger. In Minnesota, Republican incumbent Norm Coleman hangs on to a 700-vote lead. Yhe race is headed for a run-off (but given the state's use of optical scan voting technology, one of the most accurate, Al Franken may not be able to make up the difference). And in the Alaska contest, Republican incumbent (and convicted felon) Ted Stevens hangs on to a small lead. The race awaits a full count and certification by the state.

US Senate: In Oregon, Merkley (D) Defeats Smith (R), Three Races TCTC

Posted Nov 06, 2008 at 1:24 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

The balance in the new US Senate as of this morning: 57-DEM, 40-REP, 3-TCTC. In a photo-finish in the US Senate race in Oregon, Democrat Jeff Merkley (D) has defeated Republican Gordon Smith. The race in Alaska leans towards recently convicted Republican Senator Ted Stevens in his race against Democratic challenger Mike Begich. (If Steven's resigns or is booted from the Senate, whic is likely, Governor Sarah Palin must order a special election to fill the vacant seat. The big question: Will Palin herself run for the job?) Saxby Chambliss, Republican incumbent in Georgia, may not reach the required 50% +1 vote to avoid a runoff. And Norm Coleman, Republican of Minnesota, holds onto a paper-thin 700 vote lead against challenger Al Franken. Coleman's lead, as tiny as it is, may be enough to keep him in the US Senate.

Early Voting Unprecedented In The South

Posted Oct 23, 2008 at 8:49 AM
PollTrack Election Watch

Early Voting Unprecedented In The South: A record number of early voters have turned up in a number of southern states. In Georgia, early voting is double what it had been at this point in 2004. As of Wednesday, some 825,000 had cast their ballots, about 15 percent of Georgia's registered voters. In Florida, about 150,000 people casts votes this Monday and Tuesday alone. And in North Carolina more than 500,000 voters have already cast ballots. And while African-African early voting is at 2004 levels in some states (such as Ohio), it's record breaking thus far in NC and GA. Click here for the Associated Press coverage of the dramatic increase in early voting in the south.