Presidential Race Maps Writing on the Wall

MA + IN: Big US Senate Upset

Posted Nov 06, 2012 at 9:49 PM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

Bad news for GOP hopes of taking back the US Senate: Democrats Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts and Joe Donelley of Indiana win their races against early GOP favorites.

FINAL 2012 US SENATE RACE CHART 54 DEM 0-TCTC 46 REP

Posted Nov 05, 2012 at 5:34 PM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

2012 US SENATE RACE CHART

55 DEM       0
-TCTC        45 REP



SAFE DEMOCRATIC

CA, DE, ME, MD, MN, NJ, NY, PA, RI, WA, VT, WV

LEANING DEMOCRATIC

CT: Murphy (D) vs McMahon (R)

FL: Nelson (D) vs McGillicuddy (R)

HI: Hirono (D) vs Lingle (R)

IN: Donnelly (D) vs Murdock (R)


MI: Stebenow (D) vs Hoekstra (R)

MA: Warren (D) vs Brown (R

MO: McGaskill (D) vs Akin (R)
MT : Tester (D) vs Rehberg (R)

NM: Heinrich (D) vs Wilson (R)
OH
: Brown (D) vs Mandel (R)

VA: Kaine (D) vs Allen (R)

WI: Baldwin (D) vs Thompson (R)

LEANING REPUBLICAN

AZ: Carmona (D) vs Flake (R)

ND : Heitkamp (D) vs Berg (R)

NE: Kerry (D) vs Deb Fischer (R)

NV: Berkley (D) vs Heller (R)


SAFE REPUBLICAN

MS,  TN, TX, UT, WY

2012 US SENATE RACE CHART 54 DEM 1-TCTC 45 REP

Posted Nov 05, 2012 at 11:16 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

2012 US SENATE RACE CHART

54 DEM       1
-TCTC        45 REP



SAFE DEMOCRATIC

CA, DE, ME, MD, MN, NJ, NY, PA, RI, WA, VT, WV

LEANING DEMOCRATIC

CT: Murphy (D) vs McMahon (R)

FL: Nelson (D) vs McGillicuddy (R)

HI: Hirono (D) vs Lingle (R)

IN: Donnelly (D) vs Murdock (R)


MI: Stebenow (D) vs Hoekstra (R)

MA: Warren (D) vs Brown (R

MO: McGaskill (D) vs Akin (R)

NM: Heinrich (D) vs Wilson (R)
OH
: Brown (D) vs Mandel (R)

VA: Kaine (D) vs Allen (R)

WI: Baldwin (D) vs Thompson (R)

 

TOO-CLOSE-TO-CALL


MT : Tester (D) vs Rehberg (R)

 

LEANING REPUBLICAN

AZ: Carmona (D) vs Flake (R)

ND : Heitkamp (D) vs Berg (R)

NE: Kerry (D) vs Deb Fischer (R)

NV: Berkley (D) vs Heller (R)


SAFE REPUBLICAN

MS,  TN, TX, UT, WY

10:00 Projections . . .

Posted Nov 02, 2010 at 2:14 PM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

MA Gov: Patrick, DEM

MD Gov: O'Malley, DEM

AZ US Senate: McCain, REP

IA: Gralley, REP

All as expected.

Latest Polls In Races For Governor

Posted Oct 15, 2010 at 1:20 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

Here are the latest polls in competitive governor's races:

ARIZONA: Rocky Mountain GOP Gov. Jan Brewer leads Democrat Terry Goddard, 46% to 35%.

FLORIDA: Public Policy Polling Democrat Alex Sink leads Republican Rick Scott, 46% to 41%.

HAWAII: Honolulu Civil Beat Democrat Neil Abercrombie leads Republican Duke Aiona, 47% to 44%.

MAINE: Critical Insights Republican Paul LePage leads Democrat Libby Mitchell, 32% to 26%, with Independent Eliot Cutler at 11%; Rasmussen reports a closer race, with LePage just edging Mitchell, 35% to 32%, and Cutler at 21%.

MASSACHUSETTS: Suffolk University/7News Democrat Deval Patrick leads Republican Charlie Baker, 46% to 39%, with Independent Tim Cahill at 10%.

MICHIGAN: Baydoun Consulting/Foster McCollum Republican Rick Snyder leads Democrat Virg Bernero, 50% to 37%.

NEVADA: Public Policy Polling survey Republican Brian Sandoval's leads Democrat Rory Reid, 52% to 43%.

PENNSYLVANIA: Magellan Strategies survey Republican Tom Corbett leads Democrat Dan Onorato, 48% to 38% with 11% undecided.

RHODE ISLAND: Quest Research Democrat Frank Caprio leads Independent Lincoln Chafee, 37% to 33%, with Republican John Robitaille at 22%.

SOUTH CAROLINA: Winthrop University poll Republican Nikki Haley leads Democrat Vincent Sheheen, 46% to 37%.

Frustration, Anger Fueled MA US Senate Vote

Posted Jan 26, 2010 at 1:46 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

According to a post-election Washington Post survey of Massachusetts voters, "dissatisfaction with the direction of the country, antipathy toward federal-government activism and opposition to the Democrats' health-care proposals drove the upset election of Republican senatorial candidate Scott Brown in Massachusetts . . . Sixty-three percent of Massachusetts special-election voters say the country is seriously off track, and Brown captured two-thirds of these voters on Tuesday. In November 2008, Obama won decisively among the more than 80 percent of Massachusetts voters seeing the country as off-course . . . Nearly two-thirds of Brown's supporters say their vote was intended at least in part to express opposition to the Democratic agenda in Washington, but few say the senator-elect should simply work to stop it. Three-quarters of those who voted for Brown say they would like him to work with Democrats to get Republican ideas into legislation in general; nearly half say so specifically about health-care legislation."

MA US Senate: Unionists Backed Republican Brown Over Coakley

Posted Jan 25, 2010 at 1:52 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

In what may well be a testament to the unpopularity of health care reform--and perhaps declining support for the Obama administration--an AFL-CIO survey of union members found that Republican Scott Brown's victory in last Tuesday's special election for the US Senate in Massachusetts "was lifted by strong support from union households." The poll found that 49% of union households in the state supported Brown, while 46% supported Democrat Martha Coakley.

MA US Senate: On The Ground Report

Posted Jan 19, 2010 at 12:00 PM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

It's minutes before the polls close in MA. On the ground reports from both campaigns suggest that voting may have been lighter in traditionally Democratic strongholds (relative to Republican districts). While PollTrack cannot confirm this, a reading of on-the-ground journalistic accounts of voting today seems to confirm parallel this view. Still, without exit polls (which were not arranged by news organizations), this may be a long night.

MA US Senate: The Question Of Turnout

Posted Jan 19, 2010 at 7:11 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

While reports of heavy turnout might help Democrat Martha Coakley--suggesting that the Democrats and their union supporters are churning out the vote--it could easily work the other way. It appears from polling that the most enthusiastic and fired up voters are Republicans and disaffected independents, who see their vote as a chance to scuttle a health care reform package that they do not support. Thus, it is almost impossible to predict the implications of heavy turnout. Does it suggest that the Democratic machine turned out its base, perhaps sufficiently to overtake Republican Scott Brown's polling advantage? Or are Brown's supports so fired up that they are willing to brave cold, wind, and snow to cast their vote to assure Brown's victory? That the inclement weather may keep elderly voters--who trend more conservative--from the polls, helps Coakley. That it also may dissuade younger voters, who have a poor record of participation to begin with, could very well help Brown. Stay tuned.

MA US Senate: Election Day Updates

Posted Jan 19, 2010 at 4:50 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

Here are some Election Day updates care of WBZ TV Boston on today's special election in Massachusetts:

LATE-POLLING: A Suffolk University survey taken Saturday and Sunday showed Brown with double-digit leads in three communities the poll identified as bellwethers: Gardner, Fitchburg and Peabody. Internal statewide polls for both sides showed a dead heat.

 
TURNOUT: In contrast to the light turnout for the party primaries last month, there are already signs of a heavy turnout . . .
Massachsuetts Secretary of State William Galvin told WBZ he expects about 40-percent of voters to turn out for the special election statewide. Galvin said about 800,000 came out for the primaries and he believes that should double to 1.6 million based on the intense interest in this campaign.

MA US Senate: FINAL PollTrack Average--Republican Brown +4%

Posted Jan 18, 2010 at 1:11 PM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

The FINAL PollTrack polling average for tomorrow's special election in Massachusetts to fill the U.S. Senate seat of the late-Ted Kennedy shows Republican Scott Brown with a decided advantage: he leads his Democratic opponent, Martha Coakley: 50% to 46%.


FINAL AVERAGE: Republican Scott Brown: +4%

MA US Senate: Politico/Insider Advantage Poll Shows Brown Up By +9%

Posted Jan 18, 2010 at 8:32 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

A just released Politico/Insider Advantage survey shows Republican Scott Brown up by +9.1% in his race to fill the U.S. seat in Massachusetts. Brown leads Democrat Martha Coakley, 52.3% to 43.1%. Significantly, Brown is over the all-important 50% mark in this poll.

MA US Senate: PollTrack Average Gives Republican Brown A Clear Lead

Posted Jan 18, 2010 at 6:28 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

PollTrack's polling average in the Massachusetts U.S. Senate special election to fill the seat of the late-Ted Kennedy gives Republican Scott Brown a clear lead over Democrat Martha Coakley: 49.8% to 45.8%, for an aggregate advantage of +4%. More ominous for Coakley: Brown's numbers hover at the 50% mark. Still, turnout could make the race much closer (or increase Brown's lead).

Intrade: The Bets Are On Republican Scott Brown

Posted Jan 17, 2010 at 3:51 PM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

Intrade, the futures trading website, offers yet another bit of evidence that the momentum is swinging towards the Republican in Massachusetts U.S. Senate Race: As of Sunday evening--after months of Democrat Marta Coakley leading by a wide margin--traders are now betting on Republican Scott brown to win: 70 to 38.9.

MA US Senate: Two New Polls Show Momentum With Republican Brown

Posted Jan 17, 2010 at 3:38 PM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

Two polls out tonight suggest that the momentum in the Massachusetts race to fill the seat of the late-Senator Edward Kennedy has swung towards Republican Scott Brown. Public Policy Polling survey shows Brown leading Martha Coakley, 51% to 46%, an advantage of +5%. A Merriman River Group poll finds that Brown ahead of Coakley by +9.6%--50.8% to 41.2%. PollTrack believes that the spate of late-breaking polls for Brown suggests that he has the clear momentum leading into Tuesday's election. With incumbent Democratic governor Deval Patrick holding onto an approval number in the low thirties, the usually true blue state may not be automatically hospitable to Democrats, and thus could be fertile turf for an upset. Stay tuned for more analysis throughout the next two days . . . and live blogging on Tuesday evening, Election night!

MA US Senate: The Momentum Appears To Remain With The Republican

Posted Jan 17, 2010 at 2:11 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

With Martha Coakley's internal poll showing her two points behind as of Friday night (47% to 45%)--taken before her on-air gaffe in which she called the Boston Rox Sox great and Scott Brown supporter, Curt Schilling, a New York Yankee fan--the race looks very close. PollTrack believes that as of this morning the momentum remains with Republican Brown, spurred, perhaps, by a Coakley blooper that suggests that she, the state's attorney general, is a bit of touch with her constituents, not to mention recent state history (think 2004 World Series).

Given public perceptions of Coakley as aloof--the increasing perception among the electorate that the President and the Democratic party is out of touch with their immediate needs, especially with regard to their emphasis on health care over job creation in a time of dire unemployment--Brown's populist rhetoric appears to be resonating, even in true blue Massachusetts.

The bigger problem for the Democrats: even if Coakley scrapes by, a close win in a state that has not elected a Republican U.S. Senator in more than 30 years, suggests real trouble in lesser blue states--like New York, Delaware, and California--and potential routes in swing states, like Ohio, Florida, Colorado, North Carolina, and . . . and we recently witnessed, Virginia.

MA US Senate: Another Red Flag For The Democrats

Posted Jan 16, 2010 at 10:19 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

Here's another fact that should have Democrats very nervous about the upcoming special election for U.S. Senate in Massachusetts: even if the specter of possible defeat drives complacent Democrats to the polling booth next Tuesday, this may not be enough to offset the enthusiasm of Republican voters AND, as some polling data suggests, that independents are breaking for Republican Scott Brown by a three-to-one margin. One even more important observation: independents outnumber Democrats in the state by a wide margin: 51% of registered voters are unaffiliated, 37% are registered as Democrats, and 11% as Republicans.

MA US Senate: Third Poll Gives Republican Brown The Edge

Posted Jan 16, 2010 at 9:53 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

A third poll now gives Republican Scott Brown the edge against his Democratic Challenger Martha Coakley in the race to succeed the late-U.S. Senator Ted Kennedy in Massachusetts: the American Research Group poll finds Brown ahead of Coakley, 48% to 45%, for a lead of +3%.

MA US Senate: PollTrack Average Has Republican Brown Up By +2%

Posted Jan 16, 2010 at 1:41 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

PollTrack's first polling average for the special US Senate race in Massachusetts, has Republican Scott Brown leading Democrat Martha Coakley by +2%--48% to 46%. Stay tuned throughout the weekend for updated averages and analysis of new polling in the state.

MA US Senate: Coakley In Trouble

Posted Jan 15, 2010 at 11:15 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

PollTrack's reading of the latest polls in the MA US Senate race suggests that Democrat Martha Coakley, once thought to be unbeatable in this bluest of blue states, is in serious trouble. One source reports that Coakley's internal poll for Thursday night showed her trailing Republican Scott Brown by three points, 47% to 44%. A new Suffolk University/7News poll in Massachusetts shows Brown leading Coakley, 50% to 46% with only 1 percent of voters remaining undecided. A Coakley loss would spell serious trouble, as well, for Democrats in this November's mid-term election. With MA Governor Deval Patrick's approval rating in the mid-20% range--and the president's standing in the state suffering as well--the Democratic edge in Massachusetts appears to have evaporated this year. (MA is also a state with an exceptionally large block of independent voters, now going by a significant margin to Brown.)

 

MA US Senate: Two Venerable Political Analysts Rate Race A Toss Up

Posted Jan 15, 2010 at 12:53 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

Two venerable political analysts--Charlie Cook and Stuart Rothenberg-now rate the special election in Massachusetts to fill the US Senate seat of the late-Edward Kennedy as a toss up. Calling the race "one of the toughest we've had in a long time, " Cook observes: "The modern electoral history of federal statewide races in Massachusetts argues strongly that while state Attorney General Martha Coakley, the Democratic nominee, could have a close race, at the end of the day it's unlikely that she ends up losing. After all, no Republican Senate candidate has won in the Bay State since 1972. But the non-quantitative arguments are quite strong. Republican Scott Brown has been the superior candidate with, by a long shot, the better campaign... To the extent Coakley may still have a tiny advantage, it appears not to meet the normal standard we have for a 'lean' rating: a competitive race but one in which one party has a clear advantage. We see no clear advantage."

PollTrack suggests another reason to rate the race a toss up: the extreme unpopularity of incumbent Democratic governor Deval Patrick, whose reelection numbers hover around 30% (his approval rating is even lower).

MA US Senate: A Dead Heat According to Rasmussen

Posted Jan 13, 2010 at 1:40 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

Yesterday, PollTrack reported that an internal Democratic poll indicated a big lead for Martha Caokley over her Republican opponent Scott Brown in the upcoming special election for US Senate in Massachusetts. Today, the pendulum swings the other way with a report a new Rasmussen survey reporting that the race is a dead heat, with Coakley barely leading leading Brown, 49% to 47%. Last week, Coakley led by +9% in the Rasmussen survey.

MA US Senate: Internal Poll Shows Coakley With Big Lead

Posted Jan 12, 2010 at 1:30 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

According to an internal Democratic poll obtained by Politico, "Martha Coakley enjoys a solid, double-digit lead in the Massachusetts Senate special election.  The survey, conducted by longtime Democratic pollster Mark Mellman, has Democrat Coakley, the state attorney general, leading state Republican Sen. Scott Brown 50% to 36%.  Mellman’s survey has a similar margin to a Boston Globe poll, released Sunday, which had Coakley up by 15%. But this new poll has the attorney general enjoying a wider lead than in some other internal Democratic data." Stay tuned. 

MA US Senate: Martha Coakley Ahead?

Posted Jan 11, 2010 at 1:43 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

Some polls showing the upcoming  Massachusetts U.S. Senate race close, while a new Boston Globe poll reports Democrat Martha Coakley (D), "buoyed by her durable statewide popularity, enjoys a solid, +15% lead" among likely voters over rival, Republican Scott Brown, 50% to 35%." When undecideds leaning toward a candidate are included, Coakley's lead grows to +17 points--53% to 36%. Yet, a new Public Policy Polling survey finds the race a dead heat: with Brown actually leading Coakley by +1%--48% to 47%, "buoyed by a huge advantage with independents and relative disinterest from Democratic voters in the state." Stay tuned for more polling over the next few days. PollTrack's money is still on Coakley, though the outcome of the race is far from clear.

MA US Senate: Martha Coakley In The Lead BY +9%

Posted Jan 06, 2010 at 1:30 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

In the January 19th special election to fill the seat of late Senator Edward Kennedy in Massachusetts, "State Attorney General Martha Coakley holds a nine-point lead over her Republican rival, state Senator Scott Brown, in Massachusetts’ special U.S. Senate election to fill the seat of the late Edward M. Kennedy. A new Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of likely voters in the state finds Coakley ahead of Brown 50% to 41%. One percent (1%) prefer some other candidate, and seven percent (7%) are undecided."

MA US Senate: Martha Coakley Wins Democratic Nomination

Posted Dec 08, 2009 at 1:15 PM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

According to the Associated Press, MA Attorney General "Martha M. Coakley [is] projected to win Tuesday's primary election in the race for the late Senator Edward M. Kennedy's storied seat . . . She [is] projected to face State Senator Scott Brown, a Republican, on Jan. 19. Massachusetts has not sent a Republican to the Senate in 37 years, so Ms. Coakley has the stronger chance of laying claim to the seat."

MA US Senate: Does Today's VERY Low Turnout Hurt Coakley

Posted Dec 08, 2009 at 11:00 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

Talking Points Memo reports that the turnout in today's Democratic primary in the Massachusetts' US Senate race is exceedingly low: "As of 3 p.m. ET, only 35,000 people had voted in Boston, less than 10% of the city's registered voters. The Boston Herald speculates that the lower turnout could possibly benefit Rep. Mike Capuano, who is widely seen as the underdog against state Attorney General Martha Coakley. For what it's worth, Capuano's home town of Somerville, where he served as mayor before his election to Congress in 1988, is having a relatively higher turnout -- at 1 p.m., it was a whopping 12.5 percent."

MA US Senate: Martha Coakley Ahead, But By How Much?

Posted Dec 08, 2009 at 1:38 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

According to the Boston Phoenix, polls on today's Democratic primary for the US Senate in Massachusetts are contradictory: The "internal polls of different candidates in the US Senate race seemed to be saying very different things. . . . Tom Kiley, pollster for Michael Capuano, and Celinda Lake, pollster for Martha Coakley, both confirmed for me today what I reported yesterday. Kiley says his poll, taken Sunday and Monday of this week, has Coakley around 35%, and Capuano 7 points behind, in the high 20s. Lake says her poll, taken Sunday through Tuesday, has Coakley at 41%, and Capuano at 20%. (Both have Pagliuca roughly around 10%-12% and falling slightly; Khazei around 7-10% and rising slightly; and some 15%-20% undecided.)  So one poll has a 7 point lead, and the other has a 21 point lead. That's an enormous discrepancy . . . Lake also insists that she is seeing absolutely no trending decline in Coakley's support, whereas Kiley says Coakley's support has dropped slowly but steadily"

 

MA US Senate: Coakley Still Ahead, But Capuano Is Gaining

Posted Dec 04, 2009 at 1:29 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

With a spate of new endorsements from powerful Massachusetts politicos, Rep. Mike Capuano is now solidly in second place in the Democratic primary for the Massachusetts Senate special election, according to a new Rasmussen Reports poll of likely Democratic primary voters. State Attorney General Martha Coakley continues to leads the primary pack, at 36%. Capuano is in second at 21%. Investor Stephen Pagliuca and community activist Alan Khazei are tied for third at 14%.

MA US Senate: Will New Spate Of Endorsements Shake Up Race

Posted Dec 01, 2009 at 1:13 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

Political Wire wonders whether a new spate of political endorsements could slice into Attorney General Martha Coakley's lead in the Democratic primary to fill the US Senate seat vacated by the late-Edward Kennedy: "In a move that could shake up a fairly sleepy race, former Massachusetts Gov. Michael Dukakis endorsed Rep. Michael Capuano for the senatorial seat left open by the death of Ted Kennedy . . .In the last week, Capuano has also been endorsed by Nancy Pelosi and Diane Patrick, Gov. Deval Patrick's wife. With just over a week to go until the Democratic primary, all polls have shown Massachusetts Attorney General Martha Coakley (D) with double-digit leads over Capuano, who polls second, and political newcomers Alan Khazei (D) and Stephen Pagliuca (D) . . . Interestingly, the Boston Globe endorsed Khazei this morning."

MA US Senate: Coakley Holds Comfortable Lead in Democratic Primary

Posted Nov 23, 2009 at 2:04 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

according to a Boston Globe poll, Democratic Attorney General Martha Coakley holds a solid lead in the four-way Democratic race for Ted Kennedy's open US Senate seat. Still, with just over two weeks until primary day, nearly three-quarters of likely voters have yet to decide who they will support. Coakley leads with 43%, followed by Rep. Michael Capuano (D) with 22%, Steve Pagliuca (D) with 15% and Alan Khazei (D) with 6%.

MA US Senate: Coakley Holds Large Lead in Democratic Primary

Posted Nov 16, 2009 at 2:07 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

In the upcoming race to chose a Democrat to run in January's special election to fill the late Ted Kennedy's Senate seat in Massachusetts, Attorney General Martha Coakley is wll ahead of the pack: 'Coakley continues to dominate the Democratic primary race for the Senate seat held by Edward M. Kennedy until his death Aug. 25. She leads in nearly every category of voter, according to a Suffolk University/7 News poll. Coakley, the only statewide officeholder in the field of four candidates, has a plurality among male and female voters as well as across every region of the state. . . . Overall, the survey shows Coakley taking 44% of the primary vote, with Boston Celtics co-owner Stephen Pagliuca second at 17%. They are followed by Rep. Michael E. Capuano at 16% and Alan Khazei, co-founder of the community service program City Year, at 3%."

Next US Senator from MA: Democrat Martha Coakley?

Posted Oct 19, 2009 at 2:05 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

Who will replace the late Senator Ted Kennedy in Massachusetts in January special election? Right now it looks like  Attorney General Martha Coakley is the heavy favorite in the Democratic primary to be held in December. A Lake Research survey in the state conducted for Coakley's campaign shows their client with a commanding lead. In a four-way race, Coakley leads with 47%, followed by Michael Capuano at 12%, Stephen Pagliuca at 4% and Alan Khazei at 1%. These results come very close to an independent poll released by Suffolk University last month.

AG Coakley Way Ahead In Race To Succeed Kennedy In Mass US Senate

Posted Sep 18, 2009 at 1:19 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

A new Suffolk University poll in Massachusetts give Democratic Attorney General Martha Coakley a commanding lead for January's primary to replace Senator Edward Kennedy: "Voters were asked to choose from among potential Democratic Primary candidates, some of whom have since withdrawn from the fray. They chose Coakley (47 percent), Capuano (9 percent), U.S. Rep. Stephen Lynch (6 percent) and City Year founder Alan Khazei (3 percent). Thirty-three percent were undecided. Voters who chose Lynch were surveyed again after he dropped out of the race on Tuesday." Even in this four person race, PollTrack observes, Coakley is close to the all important 50% mark, an impressive showing.

Massachusetts US Senate: Attornery Genral Martha Coakley Leads

Posted Sep 10, 2009 at 12:25 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

A new survey by Rasmussen finds a clear leader in the January 2010 race to replace Ted Kennedy for Massachusetts US Senator: "State Attorney General Martha Coakley is the early leader in the Democratic race to fill the U.S. Senate seat vacated by the death of longtime Massachusetts Senator Edward M. “Ted” Kennedy . . . Coakley, the only officially declared candidate for the post, [pulls in] 38% of the vote. But one-in-four primary voters (25%) are undecided. Next is Stephen Lynch, a U.S. congressman from South Boston, with 11% support, followed closed by Rep. Ed Markey, the state’s senior member of the U.S. Huse of Representatives, with 10%. 7% favor another congressman, Michael Capuano of Somerville, while just 3% support Rep. John Tierney, the U.S. congressman from Salem. Five percent (5%) prefer some other candidate."

MA US Senate: Special Election For Kennedy's Seat Set For January 19, 2010

Posted Sep 01, 2009 at 1:42 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

If Massachusetts sticks to the succession law as now written, the special election for Ted Kennedy's US Senate seat would be held in January: Massachusetts Governor Deval Patrick has slated January 19, 2010 as the date voters will choose a successor to Senator Edward M. Kennedy. According to the Boston Globe,"State law requires the governor to set the process for a special election in motion “immediately’’ upon a Senate vacancy. [The Massachusetts Secretary of State] said he calculated the date after meeting with House Speaker Robert A. DeLeo, Senate President Therese Murray, and top Patrick aides. Under the schedule set by state law, a Jan. 19 election would require a Dec. 8 primary" PollTrack will have full coverage of the race once it's underway.

Mass Governor In Political Free Fall

Posted Aug 17, 2009 at 2:19 PM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

The latest polling news is dire for the incumbent Massachusetts Democratic Governor in next year's reelection race: "The latest quarterly poll from MassInsight, a nonprofit research institute, spells more bad political news for Governor Deval L. Patrick: His job-approval numbers have plunged to levels not seen in decades for a Massachusetts governor. In a survey of 445 residents, taken last month and released this week, only 19 percent of respondents gave him a positive job rating, while 77 percent rated it fair or poor. One percent said he was doing an excellent job. Those numbers are significantly worse than last month's Globe poll, which also found him to be struggling politically."