Presidential Race Maps Writing on the Wall

FINAL 2012 US SENATE RACE CHART 54 DEM 0-TCTC 46 REP

Posted Nov 05, 2012 at 5:34 PM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

2012 US SENATE RACE CHART

55 DEM       0
-TCTC        45 REP



SAFE DEMOCRATIC

CA, DE, ME, MD, MN, NJ, NY, PA, RI, WA, VT, WV

LEANING DEMOCRATIC

CT: Murphy (D) vs McMahon (R)

FL: Nelson (D) vs McGillicuddy (R)

HI: Hirono (D) vs Lingle (R)

IN: Donnelly (D) vs Murdock (R)


MI: Stebenow (D) vs Hoekstra (R)

MA: Warren (D) vs Brown (R

MO: McGaskill (D) vs Akin (R)
MT : Tester (D) vs Rehberg (R)

NM: Heinrich (D) vs Wilson (R)
OH
: Brown (D) vs Mandel (R)

VA: Kaine (D) vs Allen (R)

WI: Baldwin (D) vs Thompson (R)

LEANING REPUBLICAN

AZ: Carmona (D) vs Flake (R)

ND : Heitkamp (D) vs Berg (R)

NE: Kerry (D) vs Deb Fischer (R)

NV: Berkley (D) vs Heller (R)


SAFE REPUBLICAN

MS,  TN, TX, UT, WY

2012 US SENATE RACE CHART 54 DEM 1-TCTC 45 REP

Posted Nov 05, 2012 at 11:16 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

2012 US SENATE RACE CHART

54 DEM       1
-TCTC        45 REP



SAFE DEMOCRATIC

CA, DE, ME, MD, MN, NJ, NY, PA, RI, WA, VT, WV

LEANING DEMOCRATIC

CT: Murphy (D) vs McMahon (R)

FL: Nelson (D) vs McGillicuddy (R)

HI: Hirono (D) vs Lingle (R)

IN: Donnelly (D) vs Murdock (R)


MI: Stebenow (D) vs Hoekstra (R)

MA: Warren (D) vs Brown (R

MO: McGaskill (D) vs Akin (R)

NM: Heinrich (D) vs Wilson (R)
OH
: Brown (D) vs Mandel (R)

VA: Kaine (D) vs Allen (R)

WI: Baldwin (D) vs Thompson (R)

 

TOO-CLOSE-TO-CALL


MT : Tester (D) vs Rehberg (R)

 

LEANING REPUBLICAN

AZ: Carmona (D) vs Flake (R)

ND : Heitkamp (D) vs Berg (R)

NE: Kerry (D) vs Deb Fischer (R)

NV: Berkley (D) vs Heller (R)


SAFE REPUBLICAN

MS,  TN, TX, UT, WY

2012 US SENATE RACE CHART 53 DEM 2-TCTC 45 REP

Posted Nov 04, 2012 at 1:04 PM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

2012 US SENATE RACE CHART

53 DEM       2
-TCTC        45 REP



SAFE DEMOCRATIC

CA, DE, ME, MD, MN, NJ, NY, PA, RI, WA, VT, WV

LEANING DEMOCRATIC

CT: Murphy (D) vs McMahon (R)

FL: Nelson (D) vs McGillicuddy (R)

HI: Hirono (D) vs Lingle (R)

IN: Donnelly (D) vs Murdock (R)

MI: Stebenow (D) vs Hoekstra (R)

MA: Warren (D) vs Brown (R

MO: McGaskill (D) vs Akin (R)

NM: Heinrich (D) vs Wilson (R)
OH
: Brown (D) vs Mandel (R)

WI: Baldwin (D) vs Thompson (R)

 

TOO-CLOSE-TO-CALL

 



MT : Tester (D) vs Rehberg (R)

VA: Kaine (D) vs Allen (R)

 

LEANING REPUBLICAN

AZ: Carmona (D) vs Flake (R)

ND : Heitkamp (D) vs Berg (R)

NE: Kerry (D) vs Deb Fischer (R)

NV: Berkley (D) vs Heller (R)




SAFE REPUBLICAN

MS,  TN, TX, UT, WY

Democrats Maintain Control of US Senate

Posted Nov 02, 2010 at 4:33 PM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

With Harry Reid projected to win reelection to the US Senate in Nevada, PollTrack projects that the Democrats will maintain control of the US Senate.

US Senate Races Remain Competitive For Democrats

Posted Nov 02, 2010 at 2:18 PM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

As many Democratic held seats change hands in the US House, a surprising number of US Senate races remain competitive for Democrats: races in Pennsylvania, Nevada, Colorado, Illinois remain too close to call. Republican candidates were in the lead in all of these races in pre-election polling for these states. This may could be a long evening.

More Polling In Competitive US Senate Races

Posted Oct 14, 2010 at 1:01 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

More polling in competitive US Senate Races:

FLORIDA: Quinnipiac Republican Marco Rubio swamps Independent Gov. Charlie Crist, 44% to 30%, with Democratic Rep. Kendrick Meek at 22%.

NEVADA: Suffolk University Democratic US Sen. Harry Reid edges Republican Sharron Angle, 46% to 43%. Rasmussen Angle leads Reid, 49% to 48%.

WASHINGTON: CNN/Time/Opinion Research Democratic Sen. Patty Murray leads Republican Dino Rossi, 51% to 43%.

WEST VIRGINIA: Rasmussen Democratic Gov. Joe Manchin trails Republican John Raese, 49% to 46%,\.

WISCONSIN: CNN/Time/Opinion Research Republican Ron Johnson leads Democratic Sen. Russ Feingold, 52% to 44%.

Latest Polls In Close US Senate Races

Posted Oct 13, 2010 at 1:22 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

Here's a recap of the latest polls in some of the most competitive US Senate races:

 

ALASKA: DailyKos/Public Policy Polling Republican Joe Miller just edges write-in hopeful and incumbent GOP US Senator Lisa Murkowski, 35% to 33%. Democrat Scott McAdams is at 26%.

CONNECTICUT: Fox News Democrat Richard Blumenthal leads Republican Linda McMahon, 49% to 43%.

DELAWARE: Monmouth University Democrat Chris Coons holds a huge lead over Republican Christine O'Donnell, 57% to 38%.

ILLINOIS: Rasmussen Democrat Alexi Giannoulias leads GOP Rep. Mark Kirk, 44% to 43%, with Green Party candidate LeAlan Jones polling at 4%.

NEVADA: Fox News Republican Sharon Angle leads Sen. Harry Reid, 49% to 47%. Public Policy Polling Democrat Reid edges Republican Angle, 49% to 48%.

NEW HAMPSHIRE: Rasmussen Republican Kelly Ayotte is ahead of Democratic US Rep. Paul Hodes, 51% to 44%.

NORTH CAROLINA: High Point University Republican Sen. Richard Burr leads Democrat Elaine Marshall, 45% to 31%.

WASHINGTON: Elway Democratic Sen. Patty Murray leads Republican Dino Rossi, 51% to 38%. Fox News Republican  Rossi just edges Democrat Murray, 47% to 46%.

WISCONSIN Rasmussen Republican Ron Johnson leads Russ Feingold, 52% to 45%. Reuters/Ipsos Johnson leads Feingold, 51% to 44%.

WEST VIRGINIA: Public Policy Polling Democrat Joe Manchin has now reclaimed the lead from Republican John Raese, 48% to 45%.

Nevada Governor 2010: Likely Republican

Posted Sep 17, 2010 at 2:16 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

A Las Vegas Review-Journal/Mason-Dixon poll in the gubernatorial race in Nevada reports that Republican Brian Sandoval holds a considerable +16% lead over Democrat lead Rory Reid, 52% to 36%.

PollTrack Rates The Race Likely Republican

Nevada US Senate 2010: Too-Close-To-Call

Posted Sep 15, 2010 at 1:26 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

Despite small divergences in the polling of the Nevada U.S. Senate race, it looks like the race is virtually tied at this point. A  Reuters/Ipsos poll reports that the Democratic incumbent Harry Reid holds a narrow lead among likely voters over Republican Sharron Angle, 46% to 44%; a new Rasmussen survey has the race tied at 48%; and a Fox News poll reports a narrow lead for Angle, at 45% to 44%.

Nevada Governor 2010: Likely Republican

Posted Sep 02, 2010 at 1:39 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

A just released Las Vegas Review-Journal/Mason-Dixon poll in Nevada reports that Republican Brian Sandoval holds a considerable lead over Democrat Rory Reid in the race for governor among likely voters, 53% to 31%.

PollTrack Rates The Race Likely Republican

 

Nevada US Senate 2010: Still Too-Close-To-Call

Posted Aug 31, 2010 at 2:16 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

A new Las Vegas Review-Journal/Mason-Dixon poll in Nevada reports that incumbent Democratic U.S. Sen. Harry Reid holds a tiny lead over Republican challenger and Tea Party favorite Sharron Angle among likely voters in the U.S. Senate race, 45% to 44%.

PollTrack Rates The Race Too-Close-To-Call

Nevada Governor 2010: Likely Republican

Posted Aug 20, 2010 at 12:53 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

A just released Las Vegas Review-Journal/Mason-Dixon poll in Nevada reports that Republican Brian Sandoval holds a big, +16% lead over Democrat Rory Reid in the race for governor, 52% to 36%.

PollTrack Rates The Race Likely Republican

Nevada US Senate 2010: Has Republican Angle Stopped The Bleeding?

Posted Aug 02, 2010 at 2:16 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

One new poll in Nevada suggests that Republican Sharon Angle's downward spiral may have stopped in the race for U.S. Senate. The survey, by Mason-Dixon, shows incumbent Democratic Sen. Harry Reid and challenger Angle are nearly tied. Reid tops Angle among likely voters by a scant 1%, 43% to 42%. Two weeks ago, he held a more significant +7% lead.

Nevada US Senate: Another Poll Shows Reid In The Lead

Posted Jul 22, 2010 at 1:45 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

Can incumbent Democrat US Senator Harry Reid survive his low approval ratings and win reelection in Nevada? Another poll suggests that he is gaining on his Republican challenger, and Tea Party favorite, Sharon Angle. A new Public Policy Polling survey in Nevada reports that Reid edges challenger Sharron Angle by +2%, 48% to 46%. This is the second poll to report a Democratic lead.

Nevada US Senate 2010: Harry Reid Now Ahead

Posted Jul 19, 2010 at 1:35 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

A new Las Vegas Review-Journal/Mason Dixon poll in Nevada reports that incumbent Democratic Sen. Harry Reid has moved into the lead, opening a lead over Republican challenger Sharron Angle, 44% to 37%. It appears that Reid's strategy of painting Angle, a Tea Party favorite as too extreme has paid off.

PollTrack Continues To Rate The Race Too-Close-To-call.

Nevada 2010 US Senate: Reid Remains In Trouble In U.S. Senate Race

Posted Jun 14, 2010 at 2:06 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

A new Rasmussen survey in Nevada suggests that Senate Majority leader Harry Reid continues to have an uphill battle in his race for reelection. The poll reports that Republican Sharron Angle holds a hefty 11-point lead over Democrat Reid, 50% to 39%.Significantly, Angle hovers at the all-important 50% mark in the poll. 

PollTrack Predictions: Today's Primary Races

Posted Jun 08, 2010 at 1:07 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

AR-U.S. Senate Democratic Primary Runoff: Sen. Blanche Lincoln vs Bill Halter. PollTrack Rates The Race Close With A Slight Edge to Halter.

CA-U.S. Senate Republican Primary: Carly Fiorina, Tom Campbell, Chuck Devore. PollTrack Rates the Race Likely Fiorina.

CA-Republican Gubernatorial Primary: PollTrack Rates The Race Likely Meg Whitman.

IA-Republican Gubernatorial Primary: Former Gov. Terry Branstad vs Bob Vander Plaats. PollTrack Rates The Race Close, With A Slight Lead For Branstad.

ME-Democratic and Republican Gubernatorial Primaries: PollTrack Rates BOTH Races Too-Close-To-Call.

NV-Republican Gubernatorial Primary: Incumbent Gov. Jim Gibbons vs. Brian Sandoval. PollTrack Rates The Race Leaning Sandoval.

NV-U.S. Senate Republican Primary: Sharron Angle, Sue Lowden and Danny Tarkanian. PollTrack Rates the Race Likely Lowden

SC-Republican Gubernatorial Primary: PollTrack Rates The Race Likely Nikki Haley.



Nevada 2010 US Senate: Even With Tea Party Candidate, Democrat Falls Behind

Posted Apr 20, 2010 at 12:41 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

A new Mason-Dixon poll reports that even when third-party and nonpartisan candidates are included on the ballot, Democrat Sen. Harry Reid loses his reelection race to Republican challenger Sue Lowden. Lowden now leads Reid, 47% to 37%, with the other candidates getting very little support.

PollTrack Rating in Nevada: Leans Republican

Nevada 2010 Governor: Republican In The Lead

Posted Apr 15, 2010 at 1:49 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

A new Mason-Dixon poll in Nevada reports that presumptive Republican nominee, Brian Sandoval, leads Democrat  Rory Reid by a wide margin in the race for governor, 50% to 35%. PollTrack rates the race leaning Republican.

Nevada US Senate 2010: Leans Republican

Posted Apr 09, 2010 at 1:34 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

Another poll shows Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid behind in his 2010 reelection race: Rasmussen reports that Reid is considerably lagging behind his potential Republican opponents: he trails Sue Lowden, 54% to 39% and is bested by Sharron Angle, 51% to 40%.

PollTrack Read in Nevada: Leans Republican

Nevada 2010 US Senate: Without Tea Party Candidate, Democrat Suffers

Posted Mar 12, 2010 at 1:14 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

Without the presence of a Tea Party candidate on the ballot in Nevada's 2010 US Senate race, incumbent Democrat and Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid appears to be failing: In hypothetical match-ups, a new Rasmussen survey reports that Republican Sue Lowden defeats Reid by a large margin, 51% to 38%. Similarly, Republican Danny Tarkanian trounces the Democrat, 50% to 37%.

PollTrack Rating: Leans Republican

Nevada US Senate 2010: Harry Reid Aided By TeaParty Candidate

Posted Mar 03, 2010 at 1:46 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

A Mason-Dixon poll in Nevada indicates that incumbent Democratic U.S. Senator Harry Reid actually leads his re-election race with 36% of the vote when matched against a generic Republican who would get 32% and a Tea Party candidate who would get 18%. The ability of the Tea Party candidate to siphon off votes from the Republican candidate is enough to shift the outcome: in head-to-head match ups with named Republicans, Reid continues to trail by  significant margins. Sue Lowden beats Reid, 52% to 39%; Danny Tarkanian would prevail over Reid, 51% to 40%.

Nevada US Senate 2010: Harry Reid Still Behind

Posted Feb 25, 2010 at 1:20 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

Incumbent US Senator and Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid continues to trail his Republican rival in Nevada, now by -8%.

 

PollTrack Early Read--Nevada US Senate: Leans Republican

Nevada US Senate 2010: Harry Reid Endangered

Posted Feb 08, 2010 at 2:35 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

According to PollTrack's first read of the 2010 US Senate Race in Nevada, incumbent Democrat Harry Reid has fallen behind in his race for reelection. PollTrack First Call: Leans Republican

Nevada US Senate 2010: Harry Reid Sinking

Posted Jan 14, 2010 at 2:27 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

The reelection of US Senate majority leader Harry Reid is far from assured, according to new Las Vegas Review-Journal poll. A whopping 52% of Nevadans are unhappy with Reid, the highest  "unfavorable" rating he's received to date. Just 33% have a favorable view. In hypothetical match ups against three Republicans, Reid loses to each by as much as ten points: Sue Lowden (50% to 40%);  (Danny Tarkanian, 49% to 41%); and even Sharron Angle (45% to 40%).

AR, CT, NV Senate 2010: Democrats in Trouble

Posted Dec 30, 2009 at 2:15 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

In another sign that Democrats may suffer loses in the 2010 mid-term election, Sens. Christopher Dodd (D-CT), Blanche Lincoln (D-AR) and Harry Reid (D-NV) all now have disapproval ratings above 50%, according to recent polling. As Tom Jensen observes: "Politics is full of surprises and who knows what unexpected things will happen in the next year but if I had to pick three Senators running for reelection right now who will be cleaning out their offices at this time next year it would be Dodd, Lincoln, and Reid. Once voters have decided the disapprove of you it's very hard to overcome that. "

Nevada US Senate 2010: Is Health Care Sinking Harry Reid?

Posted Dec 15, 2009 at 1:39 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

Is Senator Harry Reid stewardship of health care legislation hurting his 2010 reelection chances in Nevada? According to Rasmussen, the answer may be yes: "Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid continues to lag behind all potential Republican challengers in next year’s U.S. Senate race in Nevada, according to new Rasmussen Reports telephone polling in the state. For now at least, his championing of the president’s health care plan appears to raise further red flags for the Democratic incumbent. Fifty-four percent (54%) of Nevada voters oppose the plan, while 44% favor it. More significantly, however, those numbers include 49% who strongly oppose the plan while only 23% strongly favor it."

Harry Reid Failing In Home State

Posted Dec 11, 2009 at 1:38 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

Despite his commanding role as Majority Leader, Democratic US Senator Harry Reid is not very popular in Nevada, a problem that is imperiling his 2010 reelection effort: "Nevadans aren't warming up to Sen. Harry Reid, despite plenty of early advertising designed to boost his image, a new poll shows. Just 38% of respondents said they had a favorable opinion of the Democratic Senate majority leader, the same percentage as in October and 1 point higher than in August. The survey of 625 registered Nevada voters by Mason-Dixon Polling & Research suggests the promotional bombardment that Reid launched more than six weeks ago has yet to hit its target. "I'd be worried,' said Michael Franz, an assistant professor at Bowdoin College in Brunswick, Maine, who studies political advertising. 'I'd stop if I had aired ads for two or three weeks and it wasn't moving the needle.' According to the poll commissioned by the Review-Journal, 49% of respondents had an unfavorable opinion of Reid, while 13% were neutral." According to the survey, in hypothetical general election match ups, Sue Lowden (R) leads Reid, 51% to 41%, while Danny Tarkanian (R) leads 48% to 41%.