Presidential Race Maps Writing on the Wall

2012 US SENATE RACE CHART 54 DEM 1-TCTC 45 REP

Posted Nov 05, 2012 at 11:16 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

2012 US SENATE RACE CHART

54 DEM       1
-TCTC        45 REP



SAFE DEMOCRATIC

CA, DE, ME, MD, MN, NJ, NY, PA, RI, WA, VT, WV

LEANING DEMOCRATIC

CT: Murphy (D) vs McMahon (R)

FL: Nelson (D) vs McGillicuddy (R)

HI: Hirono (D) vs Lingle (R)

IN: Donnelly (D) vs Murdock (R)


MI: Stebenow (D) vs Hoekstra (R)

MA: Warren (D) vs Brown (R

MO: McGaskill (D) vs Akin (R)

NM: Heinrich (D) vs Wilson (R)
OH
: Brown (D) vs Mandel (R)

VA: Kaine (D) vs Allen (R)

WI: Baldwin (D) vs Thompson (R)

 

TOO-CLOSE-TO-CALL


MT : Tester (D) vs Rehberg (R)

 

LEANING REPUBLICAN

AZ: Carmona (D) vs Flake (R)

ND : Heitkamp (D) vs Berg (R)

NE: Kerry (D) vs Deb Fischer (R)

NV: Berkley (D) vs Heller (R)


SAFE REPUBLICAN

MS,  TN, TX, UT, WY

New Jersey Republican Governor Unpopular

Posted Apr 30, 2010 at 12:42 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

After just three months in office, the Republican Governor of New Jersey, Chris Christie, has lost considerable support in the state, according to a new SurveyUSA poll. His approval rating is now only 33%; nearly twice the number, 63% disapprove.

NJ US Senate 2012: Democrat Menendez Loosing Ground

Posted Mar 05, 2010 at 1:29 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

In an indication that the incumbent Democratic senior US Senator is New Jersey may be loosing ground politically in his state, a new Fairleigh Dickinson PublicMind Poll reports that Republican Tom Kean Jr. is in a statistical dead heat with Democrat Bob Menendez in a hypothetical rematch of their 2006 U.S. Senate race, 39% to 38%, with 17% undecided. Although the race is more than two years away, the poll suggests the dramatic erosion of Democratic support in the state following the defeat of incumbent Democratic Governor Jon Corzine last November.

NJ Gov. Corzine's Lack Of Popularity Sealed His Fate

Posted Nov 18, 2009 at 1:06 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

According to a newly released Rasmussen survey, "60% of New Jersey voters say most of Republican Chris Christie’s winning support last week came from those who were voting against his opponent, incumbent Democratic Governor Jon Corzine . . . [The poll] finds that just 22% think the Republican candidate won the race with support from those who were actually voting for him rather than against Corzine. 18% are not sure. When pressed for specifics, 45% of voters in the state say the primary reason Christie was elected governor was dissatisfaction with Corzine’s job performance. 27% think the economy was the main reason for Christie’s victory, while 16% point to a general desire for change.
Only five percent 5% name Christie’s campaign promises as the chief reason he was elected. 2% attribute victory to his record as a prosecutor."

AP Projection: Republican Chris Christie Wins In New Jersey

Posted Nov 03, 2009 at 2:10 PM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

The Associated Press projects Republican Chris Christie the winner over incumbent Democrat Jon Corzine in New Jersey's gubernatorial race.

Independent Voters In New Jersey Breaking For Republican

Posted Nov 03, 2009 at 12:09 PM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

Exit polls in New Jersey suggest that independent voters are breaking for Republican Chris Christie by a wide, +20%, margin over incumbent Democratic Governor Jon Corzine. Once again, these voters are behaving very differently from last year, where New Jersey independents supported President Obama by a considerable margin.

UPDATE: Christie appears to be winning independent voters by 25%

Exit Polls In New Jersey Suggest A Tight Race

Posted Nov 03, 2009 at 12:04 PM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

It looks like a long night in New Jersey as Exit Polls suggests a very tight race.

Projection: Republican Bob McDonnell Leads In VA Gubernatorial Race

Posted Nov 03, 2009 at 11:02 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

As expected, CNN projects that Republican Bob McDonnell is leading the Virginia gubernatorial election over his Democratic opponent Creigh Deeds.

Economy Top Issue For New Jersey Voters

Posted Nov 03, 2009 at 10:30 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

According to CNN Exit Polls in New Jersey: "The economy was the most important issue on the minds of . . . voters Tuesday . . . Nearly a third of the voters heading to the polls in this off-year election pitting Democratic Gov. John Corzine against Republican Chris Christie, 31 percent, said the economy was the most important issue, while 26 percent said property taxes, 20 percent indicated corruption and 18 percent identified health care."

Virginia: "

CNN Exit Polls NJ & VA: Obama Not A Factor

Posted Nov 03, 2009 at 10:26 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

According to CNN's Exit Poll in New Jersey & Virginia:

New Jersey: "Six in 10 voters said Tuesday that President Obama had no effect on their vote in this off-year gubernatorial election, according to early CNN Exit Poll data. Obama visited New Jersey this week to campaign for embattled Gov. Jon Corzine, who is locked in a tough re-election contest with Republican Chris Christie. When asked if Obama had an effect on their vote, 60 percent responded he was not a factor, 20 percent said their vote was meant to express opposition to him, and 19 percent said it was to support him."

Virginia: "There's been plenty of talk by political pundits that Virginia's gubernatorial contest was a referendum on President Barack Obama, but voters don't agree . . . Fifty-five percent of Virgina voters polled say that Obama was not a factor in how they voted, with 24 percent suggesting that their vote was meant to express opposition to the president, and 18 percent indicating that their vote was meant to express support for Obama."

LIVE BLOG 7:00 PM EST TONIGHT Tuesday, 3 November

Posted Nov 02, 2009 at 3:44 PM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

PollTrack will be blogging live tonight, Election Night, tracking and interpreting results starting at 7:00 PM EST. So check in and stick with us for continuous coverage of the gubernatorial races in Virginia and, New Jersey,mayoral race in New York City, special election in NY-23, and the Maine "Gay Marriage" initiative and other races.

PollTrack FINAL Polling Average: A Summation

Posted Nov 02, 2009 at 11:16 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

Here is a brief summary of PollTrack's FINAL polling averages for five key races in tomorrow's Off-Year Election:

 

Maine Gay Marriage Referendum

Lead: FOR gay marriage--+2.7%

 

New Jersey Governor

Lead: Republican Chris Christie--+0.5%

 

Virginia Governor

Lead: Republican Bob McDonnell--+14.4%

 

NY-23 Special Election

Lead: Conservative Doug Hoffman--+8.0%


New York City Mayor

Lead: Independent Michael Bloomberg--+12.7%

 

 

NJ Governor 2009: Close, But PollTrack Final Average Still Shows GOP Lead

Posted Nov 02, 2009 at 9:54 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

PollTrack's FINAL average of polling in New Jersey for the 2009 gubernatorial race:

Jon Corzine (D, Incumbent): 41.8%

Chris Christie (R): 42.3%

Chris Daggett (I)L 10.5%

Lead: Republican Chris Christie--+0.5%

Check Back Late-Afternoon, Early-Evening For PollTrack's Final Poll Average In This Rac

NJ Governor 2009: Republican Christie's Lead Inceases Yet Again

Posted Nov 02, 2009 at 1:38 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

PollTrack's average of polling in New Jersey for the 2009 gubernatorial race:

Jon Corzine (D, Incumbent): 41.1%

Chris Christie (R): 42.8%

Chris Daggett (I)L 11.5%

Lead: Republican Chris Christie--+1.7%

Check Back Late-Afternoon, Early-Evening For PollTrack's Final Poll Average In This Race

NJ Governor 2009: Christie Up Slightly, Still Razor Close

Posted Nov 01, 2009 at 2:44 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

PollTrack's average of polling in New Jersey for the 2009 gubernatorial race:

Jon Corzine (D, Incumbent): 41.6%

Chris Christie (R): 42.2%

Chris Daggett (I)L 10.6%

Lead: Republican Chris Christie--+0.6%

NJ Governor 2009: A Dead Heat

Posted Oct 30, 2009 at 6:16 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

PollTrack's average of polling in New Jersey for the 2009 gubernatorial race:

Jon Corzine (D, Incumbent): 41.8%

Chris Christie (R): 42.0%

Chris Daggett (I)L 11.8%

Lead: Republican Chris Christie--+0.2%

NJ Governor 2009: Republican Christie Appears to Retake Momentum

Posted Oct 27, 2009 at 3:17 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

With the race drawing down to a tie in recent weeks--and Democratic incumbent Jon Corzine showing some momentum in recemt days--New Jersey's upcoming gubernatorial race appears to be shifting back to Republican Christ Christie. PollTrack's polling average has the race with the GOP candidate leading, 41.2% to 39.7%, for an aggregate lead of +1.5% (up quite a bit from the 0.25% lead earlier in the week). More recent polls show Christie with an even bigger lead, on average 2.5%. In the end, it could all come down to turnout.

VA Governor 2009: PollTrack Average Has Republican Up by Wide Margin

Posted Oct 27, 2009 at 2:22 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

As of this morning--with one week to go--PollTrack's polling average in the race for Virginia Governor has Republican Bob McDonnell leading Democrat Creigh Deeds by a wide margin--54.3% t0 41.6%--and aggregate advantage of +12.7%.

NJ Governor 2009: A Squeaker?

Posted Oct 26, 2009 at 1:52 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

A good deal can change in politics in a month. PollTrack's polling average for New Jersey's upcoming gubernatorial race suggests an upset in the making. Throughout the year, Republican Chris Christie led incumbent Democratic Jon Corzine by a significant margin. Now, it looks like Corzine has the momentum and may squeak through on 3 November. Why? Mostly the continued strength of third-party candidate Chris Daggett, who now polls as much as 20% in some pols and appears to be taking away more votes from Corzine than Christie. Another factor: the relative success of Corzine's spate of negative and clearly effective TV ads against his Republican challenger. As of Sunday night, Christie leads Christie by the hair's breadth--39.2% to 39%--for a lead of just +0.25%. (Daggett now pulls on average, 16% of the vote)

NJ Governor 2009: Corzine Even With Christie

Posted Oct 14, 2009 at 1:49 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

After trailing for months, Democratic Gov. Jon Corzine has now pulled within one point of Republican challenger Chris Christie, 40% to 39%, with independent candidate Chris Daggett drawing 13% support, according to a new Public Policy Polling survey in New Jersey: "It was thought that Corzine's only chance at winning was to make voters dislike Christie even more than him, but he actually has seen a gain in his favorability over the last month. While a majority of voters still don't care for him the 37/55 spread is a whole lot better than the 32/60 of a month ago." A new Quinnipiac poll in New Jersey similarly finds Christie with a one point lead, 41% to 40%, with independent Christopher Daggett at 14%. PollTrack believes that the race will come down to Daggett's supporters. If they defect, Christie may well be the beneficiary. If they hold firm, the incumbent could squeak through. Stay tuned, especially to Daggett's numbers as we approach Election Day.

NJ Democrat Gov. Another Poll Shows Incumbent Democrat Corzine Ahead

Posted Oct 09, 2009 at 2:36 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

Yet another poll, this one a Democracy Corps poll supported by the Democratic party, shows incumbent Jon Corzine ahead in the upcoming race for New Jersey Governor: "Corzine has now moved slightly ahead of Republican Chris Christie, after pulling into a statistical dead heat two weeks ago. Corzine now leads by 3 points, garnering 41 percent of the vote to Christie’s 38 percent and independent Chris Daggett’s 14 percent. Importantly, Corzine has now consolidated the vote among his base, crossing the 80 percent threshold among Democrats and winning more Democrats than Christie does Republicans for the first time. Christie’s standing has declined markedly in the last two weeks, with 42 percent now rating the Republican unfavorably versus just 30 percent who rate him favorably. This net -12 point favorability rating is a 10-point decline from two weeks ago. Corzine is rated favorably by 37 percent of voters and unfavorably by 46 percent, for a net favorability rating of -9 points."

If these results were to be confirmed by independent pollsters, this would be big news, indeed. But so far, Christie still seems to hold onto a very slim lead. A SurveyUSA poll released last night reported that the Republican candidate remains barely ahead of Corzine, 43% to 40%, within the margin of sampling error. Independent Chris Daggett gets 14%.

NJ Governor 2009: Poll Reports Corzine Is Gaining Ground

Posted Oct 07, 2009 at 1:38 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

Is incumbent Democratic Governor Jon Corzine closing the gap in New Jersey after a year of being consistently behind in the polls? A new Fairleigh Dickinson-PublicMind Poll would appear to suggest a possible turn around for the embattled Democrat. The survey finds that Corzine now edges ahead of his Republican challenger, Chris Christie, 44% to 43%, within the poll's margin of error. The poll is somewhat irregular in that it does not ask respondents specifically about their support of the independent candidates in the race. Thus, the poll, reports: "Another 4% volunteer they will vote for independent Chris Daggett and 5% say they are undecided. When Daggett's name is read in an interview along with Corzine's and Christie's name, Corzine leads Christie 38% to 37% and Daggett gets 17% of the vote."

A new Rasmussen survey still show's Christie ahead but by a narrower margin. The poll reports that Corzine has pulled to within three percentage points of Christie after trailing his GOP challenger for months: Christie is at 47%; Corzine 44% and Daggett at 6%. 3% remain undecided. PollTrack needs more information in order to determine if the overall dynamics of the race have actually changed. With more polling coming later in the week, will a new trend for Democratic victory emerge? Stay tuned.  

NJ Governor 2009: Can Democrat Corzine Win?

Posted Oct 05, 2009 at 2:05 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

Is Democrat Jon Corzine really closing the gap in his upcoming gubernatorial race in New Jersey against GOP challenger Chris Christie? Can he actually come out ahead on Election Day. The answer, PollTrack believes, is possibly, but that thus far Corzine remains stuck in the same position he's been in since the start of his campaign in January 2009 on: at or below the 40% mark, with little or no movement upward. Even with the recent narrowing of the gap recorded in some surveys, it been a slight decline in Christie's support and not a significant uptick in support for Corzine that accounts for most of the decrease between the two candidates.

In a telling analysis of the race, veteran political analyst Stuart Rothenberg observes of the recent narrowing of the polls: "Corzine's chances of winning re-election now are no better than they were a month ago. The governor continues to be stuck between 38 percent and 42 percent in the ballot test, where he has been for many months, and the fundamentals of the race continue to favor the Republican challenger. Corzine was at 39 percent among likely voters in the newest Quinnipiac survey, not much different from his 37 percent showing at the end of August, his 40 percent showing in early August or his 38 percent showing in mid-July. The most recent Quinnipiac poll showed Christie leading Corzine by 4 points because the Republican's vote has slipped from 46 percent or 47 percent in other Quinnipiac surveys to 43 percent. In turn, Independent candidate Chris Daggett's number in the ballot test has risen to 12 percent in the most recent Quinnipiac poll, up from the 7 percent to 9 percent he had been drawing in other recent Quinnipiac surveys. There is no statistically significant movement from late August to late September among likely independent voters."

PollTrack will continue to cover the race very closely in the coming weeks, in our countdown to Election 2009.

NJ Governor 2009: Incumbent Democrat Corzine Gains Ground

Posted Oct 02, 2009 at 1:37 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

It looks like the race for Governor of New Jersey, that only a month ago appeared to be an easy victory for Republican challenger Chris Christie, is going down to the wire: a new Quinnipiac poll reports that incumbent Democratic Gov. Jon Corzine has cut challenger Chris Christie's (R) lead in half and now trails by just four points, 43% to 39%, among likely voters. Independent candidate Christopher Daggett gets 12% with 6% undecided. A forthcoming DailyKos/Research 2000 poll shows the race tightening, as well, with Christie now leading by just four points, 46% to 42% with independent Chris Daggett getting 7% support.

Another just released poll reports that Corzine is closing in fast and dramatically: The latest Monmouth University/ Gannett New Jersey Poll finds the "Democrat trailing the Republican by just 3 percentage points among likely voters, down from an 8 point disadvantage last month and 14 points in August. The reasons for this movement include a more energized Democratic base and shifting preferences of independent women. Currently, Chris Christie leads Jon Corzine by 43% to 40% among likely voters, with independent Chris Daggett at 8%. When the vote preferences of all registered voters are taken into account, the race is tied with Corzine at 40% and Christie at 40%. Partisan support has remained relatively stable over the past month. Corzine has a 75% to 8% advantage among likely Democratic voters while Christie enjoys an 86% to 7% lead among likely Republicans and a 49% to 28% edge among likely independents. However, the poll indicates that more Democrats have become interested in the outcome of this campaign and thus are now more likely to vote than they were just a month ago"

The BIG question for PollTrack: how well will Daggett do in the end, a candidate who draws far more votes from Corzine than Christie. If, as history often suggests, Democrats abandon Daggett and come home to the party, the race could easily draw down to a tie, or even a slight lead for Corzine.

NJ Governor 2009: Corzine Narrows The Gap (Slightly)

Posted Sep 22, 2009 at 1:03 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

As of Monday evening, it appears that incumbent Democratic Governor Jon Corzine has narrowed the gap slightly with his Republican challenger, Chris Christie, in the upcoming race in New Jersey. Christie now leads by +7%--44.5% to 37.5%, with independent candidate Chris Daggett at 8.5%--a modest improvement from a month ago. The good news for Corzine: his standing has improved and Daggett, whose momentum shows signs of slowing down, seems to be taking more votes away from the Democrat than the Republican. The bad news for Corzine: he is well below the 40% mark, a very dismal place for an incumbent to find himself.

NJ Governor 2009: Corzine Inches Slightly Closer to Republican Chris Christie

Posted Sep 15, 2009 at 1:06 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

As of Sunday night, PollTrack's aggregate of polls in New Jersey's upcoming race for Governor suggests that incumbent Democrat Jon Corzine is doing slightly better against his Republican challenger Chris Christie. Christie leads Corzine, 46.6% to 39.0%, an aggregate lead of +7.6%, considerably down from his +10% lead of a month ago. Still, with Corzine way below 50% (he doesn't even graze the 40% mark), his battle remains uphill, to say the least.

NJ Governor 2009: Corzine Improving His Standing

Posted Sep 11, 2009 at 1:50 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

Two new polls suggest slightly contrary views of this year's gubernatorial race in New Jersey. One, from Democracy Corps (D) poll, reports that Republican challenger Chris Christie holds a scant three-point lead on Democratic Gov. Jon Corzine, 41% to 38%, with independent Chris Daggett receiving 10% of the vote. The poll also finds that Corzine's standing has improved over the past month, with his favorable rating now at 36% from %st month (still a somber number for an incumbent seeking reeelection). Yet, an new Rasmussen Reports poll shows Christie with a healthier eight point lead--46% to 38%.

NJ Governor 2009: Corzine Continues to Trial Republican Chris Christie

Posted Sep 09, 2009 at 1:39 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

PollTrack's poll average for the gubernatorial race in New Jersey suggests that Democratic incumbent Jon Corzine still has his work cut out for him, though the race has grown considerably closer and his opponent Chris Christie does not come close to the 50% mark. As of Sunday night, Republican Christie leads Corzine 47% to 39.5% for an aggregate lead of +7.5%.

NJ Governor 2009: Quinnipiac Says Corzine Has Not Narrowed The Gap

Posted Sep 02, 2009 at 1:34 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

A new poll by Quinnipiac University suggests that Democratic incumbent Governor Jon Corzine has NOT narrowed the gap with his Republican challenger in New Jersey: "Corzine is losing the battle of the attack ads in his campaign for reelection and now trails Republican challenger Christopher Christie 47% to 37% among likely voters, with 9% for independent candidate Christopher Daggett . . . . This compares to a 46% to 40% Christie lead, with 7% for Daggett, in an August 11 survey . . . Corzine leads 74% to 15% among Democratic likely voters, with 7% for Daggett. Christie leads 86% to 8% among Republicans, with 4% for Daggett, and 46% to 30% among independent voters, with 16% for Daggett."

2009 Election Update: New Jersey Getting Tighter

Posted Aug 31, 2009 at 1:00 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

The race for Governor in New Jersey has grown much closer in recent days according to PollTrack's polling average in the state. For months, Republican challenger Chris Christie has been leading incumbent Democratic Governor Jon Corzine by ten points or more. Now Christie's lead has been cut in half--48% to 42.5%, for an aggregate lead of +5.5%. One just released survey, by Democracy Corps, reports an even closer race, with Christie leading Corzine by just two points, 43%-41%, compared with the Republican's five-point lead two weeks ago.

New Jersey Governor 2009: Corzine Does Slighlty Better Against Christie

Posted Aug 20, 2009 at 1:36 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

According to Democratic sponsored poll, incumbent Governor Jon Corzine has improved his standing against Republican challenger Chris Christie in New Jersey's upcoming governor's race. While PollTrack's average has Christie leading by about +11%--49.3% to 38.0%, a new GQR survey shows the race much closer, with the Republican leading, 43% to 37%.

2009 Election Update: New Jersey

Posted Aug 07, 2009 at 1:18 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

It looks like Democrat Jon Corzine remains in the danger zone for an incumbent Governor. A new DailyKos/Research 2000 poll in New Jersey reports that Republican Chris Christie leads Corzine by +8%--48% to 40%. The survey reports that there is "surprising little movement in the last several months. Corzine is wallowing in the panic zone for an incumbent, and Christie is hovering around the 50% mark. This poll is actually the most optimistic for Corzine from the most recent batch." Despite Corzine's very slightly improved standing in this poll, a new Rasmussen Reports survey finds Christie leading by 13 points, 50% to 37%. With Christie hovering at the 50% mark and Corzine stuck in the high-30s, it may be very difficult for the Democrat to recover in time for the 2009 election, now less than three months away.

2009 Election Update: New Jersey

Posted Aug 04, 2009 at 1:54 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

In the state of New Jersey, incumbent Governor Jon Corzine's reelection numbers can be described in a single word: dismal. His opponent, for state proescutor, Republican Chris Christie not only maintins a significant lead, but has jumped over the all-important 50% mark. The race is as follows, according to PollTrack's polling average: 51.5% to 37%, giving the Republican a whopping lead of +14.5%.

2009 Election Update: New Jersey--Democrat Corzine Sinks Lower

Posted Jul 31, 2009 at 1:34 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

Incumbent Democratic Governor Jon Corzine has fallen even further behind in his 2009 race for reelection. With a little more than three months to go, Public Policy Polling reports: The pollster's "monthly look at the race for Governor of New Jersey finds Republican Chris Christie leading incumbent Democrat Jon Corzine 50% to 36%. That 14 point lead is up from 10 at the end of June. Christie has a 54-26 lead among independents, and holds Corzine to just 64% of the Democratic vote, while receiving 86% from within his own party. Attack ads running against each candidate right now don’t seem to be having much of an impact on how voters view either of them. 42% have a favorable opinion of Chris Christie with 32% seeing him negatively. That’s virtually unchanged from a month ago when the spread was 43/33.Corzine’s spread is 33/56, also pretty similar to his previous 36/56 number."

2009 Election Update: New Jersey

Posted Jul 28, 2009 at 2:22 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

The Democratic incumbent Governor continues to loose ground in the upcoming election New Jersey. PollTrack's polling average for the state reports that Republican challenger Chris Christie has a huge lead lead over incumbent Jon Corzine: 51.0% to 39.2%, for an Republican advantage of + 11.8%.

NJ Governor 2009: Corzine Trials In Another Poll

Posted Jul 17, 2009 at 2:06 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

A new Monmouth University poll in New Jersey reports that GOP challenger Chirs Christie currently leads incumbent Governor Jon Corzine, 43% to 37% among registered voters. Independent Chris Daggett garners 5% of the vote and 15% of voters remain undecided. The survey continues: "Among likely voters – those who are most probable to vote on November 3rd – Christie leads Corzine by 8 points, 45% to 37%, with Daggett at 4%. While Christie has maintained an advantage in most polls this year, the race is far from over. Only 54% of likely voters say they have definitely made up their mind on which candidate they will be supporting. If voters who are only “leaning” toward a candidate are removed from the equation, Christie’s advantage shrinks to 4 points, 37% to 33%.

Another indication of the volatility of these early polls is the change in favorability rating for the two main candidates. Currently, Jon Corzine stands at 38% favorable to 46% unfavorable, with 16% who have no opinion. This indicates a drop in the governor’s favorable ratings since January, when they stood at 49% favorable to 38% unfavorable. Chris Christie has a better overall rating than his opponent, but there are some warning signs that the Republican should keep an eye on. Currently, Christie’s rating stands at 43% favorable to 24% unfavorable. While the GOP nominee’s favorable rating has remained basically steady since January, his unfavorable rating has climbed by 12 points."

New Jersey: Is The National Economy Hurting Corzine In His Rellection Quest?

Posted Jul 13, 2009 at 1:57 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

One serious problem facing incumbent New Jersey Democratic Governor Jon Corzine in his 2009 reelection race according to Rasmussen Reports: a growing sense in the state that the nation is falling further into economic disarray: Just 4% of New Jersey voters rate the economy as good or excellent while 65% say it's in poor shape. 23% say things are getting better, but 47% say they are getting worse. PollTrack has noted this same phenomena in other states where the economy is suffering and incumbent Democratic governors now in trouble, including the key swing states of Virginia (a race that will also be decided this November) and Ohio.

Another Poll Shows Republican Christie Ahead in 2009 NJ Gubernatorial Race

Posted Jul 09, 2009 at 1:40 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

Yet another poll suggests that incumbent New Jersey Democratic Governor Jon Corzine is in trouble: "Just one in five voters (21%) say New Jersey is on the right track and, according to the most recent poll by Fairleigh Dickinson University’s PublicMind™, Republican Chris Christie continues to lead the Democratic incumbent governor by a margin of 45%-39% in the race for governor. Another 15% say they are unsure. Christie, the former U.S. Attorney for New Jersey, has increased his statewide name recognition to 87%, up 25 points since April. However, his ratio of favorable to unfavorable opinion has shifted away from him even as Corzine has begun advertising. One-third of New Jersey voters (34%) say they have a favorable view of Christie versus one quarter (25%) who have an unfavorable view, up from 12% in April. Another quarter (28%) say they have not formed an opinion. . . . Among all voters, 54% say their view of Corzine is unfavorable, while 31% say their view is favorable . . . 48% of Democrats say their view of Corzine is favorable, but 37% say their view is unfavorable. In fact, only two-thirds of Democratic voters (66%) support Corzine, while one in five (20%) say they prefer Christie and 13% are undecided." Not good news for the incumbent Governor.

Democrat Gov. Jon Corzine Remains Well Behind In NJ Reelection Effort

Posted Jul 01, 2009 at 1:34 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

A new poll suggests that New Jersey's incumbent Democratic Governor has a tough road ahead of him in this year's reelection campaign. A Public Policy Polling survey reports that Republican challenger Chris Christie leads Gov. Jon Corzine by ten points: 51% to 41%: "Christie is being buoyed by a 60-26 advantage with independent voters and a remarkable degree of party unity, as he leads 93-3 with Republicans. By comparison, Corzine has just a 75-16 edge with Democrats . . . There's not much doubt Christie's lead is being fueled largely by Corzine's unpopularity. 56% of voters in the state have a negative opinion of the incumbent, while just 36% view him favorably. For Christie the breakdown is 43% positive and 33% unfavorable."

Democrat Incumbent Governor Corzine Continues To Do Poorly in New Jersey

Posted Jun 25, 2009 at 1:40 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

The political landscape continues to look bleak for incumbent Democratic Governor Jon Corzine in New Jersey. With the general election a little more than four months away, a new Strategic Vision poll in New Jersey finds Republican Christopher Christie leading Corzine by an impressive 12 points, 51% to 39% with 8% undecided.

New Jersey Governor 2009: Incumbent Democrat Corzine Trails Christie

Posted Jun 11, 2009 at 1:49 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

New Jersey Governor Jon Corzine continues to trail his Republican challenger, according to a new Quinnipiac poll: GOP candidate Chris Christie leads Corzine 50% to 40%, among likely voters. The road to November seems particularly steep for Corzine: "Most New Jersey voters say he does not deserve re-election; that things have gotten worse since he became Governor and that personally he is cold and businesslike, not warm and friendly."

VA Governor: Another Poll Shows Deeds In The Lead

Posted Jun 05, 2009 at 6:13 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

Another poll, this time from Suffolk University,  shows a close race in VA's Democratic primary for Governor: "Virginia voters give Democratic gubernatorial candidate Creigh Deeds (29%) a slight lead over opponents Terry McAuliffe (26%), and Brian Moran (23%), leading up to the June 9 Primary, with a significant 22% still undecided.  The poll shows that all three candidates are within the statistical margin of error and any one of them could ultimately emerge as the Democrat to face Republican Bob McDonnell in November.

Daily Kos/Research 2000: VA Democratic Governor's Primary Too Close To Call

Posted Jun 05, 2009 at 2:05 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

A new Daily Kos/Research 2000 poll reports two key observations in next week's race for the Democratic nomination for Governor in Virginia: Former leader Terry McAuliffe has fallen behind the pack, and that the numbers all fall well within the poll's margin of error. The uphot: the race is too close to call. Here are the numbers: state Sen. Creigh Deeds at 30%, former state Rep. Brian Moran at 27%, and former Democratic National Committee chairman Terry mcAuliffe at 26%.

Rasmussen: Christie (r) Has Big Lead Over Corzine (d)

Posted Jun 05, 2009 at 1:54 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

According to a new poll released after the results of Tuesday's GOP primary became known to voters in New Jersey, Republican Chris Christie has a sunstantial lead over incumbent Democratic Governor Jon Corzine: "The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey in the state shows Christie with 51% of the vote while Corzine is supported by 38%. Last month, before the primary, it was Christie with 47% of the vote and Corzine with 38%. The slight increase in support for Christie may reflect a temporary bounce from his primary victory. Still, voters recognize that it’s tough for a Republican to win statewide races in the Garden State. Just 43% say that Christie is likely to end up as the next governor while 41% say Corzine will be re-elected. New Jersey polls often show Republican candidates doing well in the spring with Democrats gaining ground in the fall. Corzine is expected to heavily outspend Christie which could add to that trend. A Republican has not won a statewide election in the Garden State since 1997." A real sign of Corzine's troubles: his approval rating is stagnant at 41%, while 53% of NJ voters have at least a "somewhat favorable" opinion of Christie. 

Christie Handily Defeats Lonegan in NJ GOP Gubenatorial Primary

Posted Jun 02, 2009 at 3:52 PM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

Well, New Jesey Republican chose the more moderate of the two main rivals for the GOP nomination for Governor: With 86 percent of precincts reporting, Mr. Christie had 162,210 votes to 124,196 for Mr. Lonegan, or 55 percent to 42 percent. Assemblyman Rick Merkt drew 3 percent, according to the Associated Press. PollTrack can now call the GOP primary for former US federal prosecutor, Christopher J. Christie.

Does Democrat Corzine Want To Run Against Lonegan?

Posted Jun 02, 2009 at 10:11 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

See post below, New Jersey Governor 2009: Incumbent Jon Corzine (d) Trailing Republican Rivals to get a sense of why Democratic incumbent NJ governor Jon Corzine may favor the more conservative Lonegan as his GOP challenger. It is no accident that Lonegan--who does 4% less well than Christie in a hypothetical match up against Corzine--is both more conservative and more appealing to the Republican base than Christie. But will GOP voters choose to endorse the candidate who appears to have a better chance of defeating Corzine of the candidate who remains truer to hardline Republican principals? We will know later tonight.

Today's NJ GOP Primary: Could Lonegan Score An Upset?

Posted Jun 02, 2009 at 9:48 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

Could former Bogota Mayor Steve Lonegan, very popular with the party faithful in New Jersey, score an upset over the presumptive leader in today's GOP primary for Governor, former U.S. Attorney Chris Christie? Well, hard to say. But two factors could produce the perfect storm for a Lonegan upset: light turnout, which would favor the candidate most likely to do well among GOP diehards and the spate of very negative TV commercials adainst Christie run recently by incumbent Democratic Govorner Jon Corzine. So, are these commercials actually meant to defeat Christie in the primary, in order for Corzine to run against a candidate possible less appeal to middle-of-the road voters and independents? Or has Corzine misculated, running commercials against a candidate he (perhaps prematurely) believes is the presumptive GOP nominee? PollTrack's guess: the former seems to be the more likely scenario. 

Vote Going Smoothly In NJ GOP Primary

Posted Jun 02, 2009 at 9:31 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

According to the Newark Star-Ledger, voting is going smoothly in today's NY GOP primary for Governor: "It's been a relatively clean day of polling across the state in the Republican race for governor, according to officials from all three GOP camps. So far, the campaigns of Chris Christie, Steve Lonegan and Rick Merkt said they have encountered virtually no problems with their voters being disenfranchised at the polls or experiencing major problems with voting machines. State election officials have also reported no problems at the polls. The Secretary of State's Office, which oversees elections, has so far not had to deal with any major elections problems, according to agency spokeswoman Susan Evans."

Today's NY GOP Gubernatorial Primary: Christie Headed For Victory

Posted Jun 02, 2009 at 1:54 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

In their campaign to unseat incumbent Democratic Governor Jon Corzine in New Jersey, Republicans are appatently prepared to nominate Former U.S. Attorney Chris Christie, according to a Fairleigh Dickinson University poll. Christie leads former Bogota Mayor Steve Lonegan by a whopping 24%--54% to 30% in the race for the GOP gubernatorial nomination that will be decided in today's primary. This represents a marked improvement for Christie from numbers he received las week from a Rasmussen Reports poll, which showed him leading Steve Lonegan by 11 points, 46% to 35%.

New Jersey Governor 2009: Incumbent Jon Corzine (d) Trailing Republican Rivals

Posted Jun 01, 2009 at 4:00 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

According to a Daily Kos/Research 2000 survey, incumbent New Jersey Governor Jon Corzine continues to trail BOTH possible Republican rivals in his reelection bid. The survey reports the General Election Match-Ups as follows:

Chris Christie (R) 46%
Jon Corzine (D) 39%
Undecided 15%

Steve Lonegan (R) 43%
Jon Corzine (D) 40%
Undecided 17%

The Daily Kos analysis continues: "First, the bad news: incumbent Democrat Jon Corzine trails both potential Republican challengers in a general election. With the GOP primary coming up, likely nominee Chris Christie has, at present, a seven-point edge over Corzine. The non-establishment conservative candidate in the race, former Bogota Mayor Steve Lonegan, enjoys a slight lead as well of three points. There is a little bit of good news for Corzine in these numbers, however. For one thing, his numbers versus his Republican opponents appear to be holding steady, compared to other recent polling in the race. His numbers had been heading south, but there is at least some sign that his poll numbers have bottomed out."

Nevertheless, PollTrack notes that it is difficult to see these numbers as anything but discouraging for a sitting governor a mere six-months from the Election Day.

2009 NJ Governor: Republican Christie Leads Incumbent Democrat Corzine

Posted May 19, 2009 at 1:40 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

Incumbent Democratic Governor Jon Corzine continues to suffer in his attempt to retain his seat in this year's re-election battle: "Corzine trails Republican challenger Chris Christie by nine percentage points. The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Garden State voters shows Christie with 47% of the vote and Corzine with 38%. The Governor does better when matched against Republican Steve Lonegan. In that case, it’s Lonegan with 42% and Corzine just a point behind at 41%. These numbers, while disappointing for an incumbent, are actually an improvement for Corzine. In March, as the Governor announced announcing his budget plan including $916 million in new and increased taxes, Corzine trailed Christie by fifteen points and was eight points behind Lonegan"

2009 NJ Governor: Attorney General Christie Leads GOP Pack

Posted May 18, 2009 at 2:17 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

There appears to be a front-runner in the contest for the GOP nod to run against incumbent NJ Governor Jon Corzine. According to Rasmussen Reports survey, "with less than three weeks to go until New Jersey Republicans select their nominee for governor, Chris Christie attracts 39% of the state's GOP voters while Steve Lonegan earns 29%. Another 29% remain undecided, and three percent (3%) say they’ll vote for some other candidate, according to the latest Rasmussen Reports telephone poll in the state. Rick Merkt, an assemblyman from Morris, is also running, but he did not qualify to participate in the first debate between the frontrunners. The candidates debated Tuesday night for the first time. That was also the night of the survey."

Democrat Gov. Corzine Still In Trouble In New Jersey

Posted May 07, 2009 at 1:18 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

Democratic Givernor Jon Corzine is still in trouble in his 2009 reelection bid: "In a state that favors Democrats, the Republicans are hanging tight in their bid to oust incumbent Governor Jon Corzine. The latest Monmouth University/Gannett New Jersey Poll finds former U.S. Attorney Chris Christie with a small lead over Corzine, while the incumbent has a slight advantage over former Bogota mayor Steve Lonegan. But voters seem to be wondering why no one is talking about their number one issue – property taxes. Governor Corzine’s job performance rating currently stands at 40% approve to 49% disapprove, a slight improvement from the 34%-51% rating he held in February. Currently, 43% of voters have a personally favorable view of Jon Corzine compared to 47% who have an unfavorable view. In head-to-head match-ups with the two leading GOP contenders, Jon Corzine trails Chris Christie by 39% to 35% among registered voters. However, Corzine leads Steve Lonegan by 37% to 33%." PollTrack suggests that despite his lead over Lonegan, Corzine's standing is SO low relative to that of a popular incumbent that they strongly suggest a rough road ahead for the Democrat, numbers nowhere near where a sitting governor wants to be at this stage in a re-election campaign.

NJ Democrat Gov. Jon Corzine Not Favored For Re-Election This November

Posted Apr 09, 2009 at 1:55 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

A new poll continues to show incumbent New Jersey Democratic governor Jon Corzine behind in his effort to win reelection this November: Gov. Jon Corzine continues to struggle with the budget and New Jersey voters even as he officially filed for re-election. According to the most recent poll by Fairleigh Dickinson University’s PublicMind, 49% of voters disapprove of the job Corzine is doing while 40% approve. 'Sometimes timing is everything,' said Peter Woolley, a political scientist and director of the poll. 'He’s the only incumbent governor in the country up for election this year as the financial crisis hits.'  Among Democrats, six of ten approve of the job he is doing (61%), but independents disapprove by more than two to one (58 to 25) and Republicans disapprove by almost five to one (77-16). Just 33% say they have a favorable opinion of Corzine, while 56% have an unfavorable opinion, a shift from measurements taken a month ago that showed 38% favorable and 48% unfavorable. In a general election trial heat against Republicans, Corzine continues to trail former U.S. Attorney Chris Christie by nine points, 33%-42%. Just 58% of Democrats line up behind Corzine while 78% of Republicans prefer Christie. Christie’s name recognition continues to climb, to 62% from 57% a month ago; and 31% have a favorable opinion of the former U.S. Attorney for New Jersey while 12% have an unfavorable view."

Democrat Governor Corzine Falls Further Behind In New Jersey

Posted Mar 18, 2009 at 1:12 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

According to a Quinnipiac University Poll, Democratic incumbent Jon Corzine has falling further behind his hypothetical Republican challenger in New Jersey's 2009 Governor's race. Republican Christopher Christie leads Corzine 46% to 37%, "even though 61 percent of voters don't know enough about the former U.S. Attorney to form an opinion of him." Taken before Corzine's Draconian budget was released, his numbers could be descend even more in the next few weeks. Rasmussen reports an even bigger deficit for Corzine, indicating that he has has now fallen behind Republican challenger Christopher J. Christie by 15 points – 49% to 34%. (7% prefer some other candidate, and 10% are undecided.)

NJ Democratic Governor In Trouble in 2009 Reelection Campaign

Posted Mar 05, 2009 at 1:04 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

New Jersey Democratic Governor Jon Corzine is in serious trouble in his reelection bid this year. According to a Fairleigh Dickenson University Poll, "40% of voters approve of the job Corzine is doing while 46% disapprove--a reversal from January when 46% approved and 40% disapproved. Among Democrats, 58% approve and 28% disapprove with 14% unsure, a 2-to-1 margin in the governor’s favor, but independents disapprove by 2-to-1 and Republicans disapprove by 3-to-1.  More ominous is that among public employee households, 31% approve while 56% disapprove. That compares to an even split among all other households, 43%-44%." Even more ominous for Corzine: "In a trial heat against the leading Republican contender, Corzine trails former U.S. Attorney Chris Christie by 32%-41%.  In that heat, 73% of Republicans line up behind Christie, while just 55% of Democrats line up behind Corzine."

Democrat Jon Corzine In Trouble IN 2009 NJ Governors Race

Posted Feb 05, 2009 at 2:07 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

A new Quinnipiac University poll suggests that Democratic Governor is falling behind in his reelection race: Corzine is  "slipping behind former U.S. Attorney Christopher Christie, the front-runner for the Republican nomination, though the challenger also was far from the 50% mark. Christie led Corzine by 44% to 38% . . . with 16% voicing no opinion. The 6%-point margin in the hypothetical matchup is an exact reversal from that in a Nov. 19 Quinnipiac poll, which showed Corzine up by 42% to 36%."

   

NJ Democratic Governor May Be In Trouble

Posted Jan 19, 2009 at 1:48 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

One major race in 2009 with a cloudy future: New Jersey Governor. With popular former U.S. Attorney Chris Christe deciding to seek the Republican nomination run against Democratic Gov. Corzine,  the outcome of the matchup is far from certain. A Monmouth University/Gannett New Jersey poll conducted last week reports that Corzine maintains a "statistically insignificant" 2% lead--38% to 36%--over Christie, with 2% preferring another candidate, 4% not intending to vote, and 21% undecided. "If voters are asked which way they'd come down between Corzine and a Republican other than Christie, Corzine runs ahead 36% to 32% with 18% undecided and 12% saying it depends who the Republican was

New Jersey Governor 2009: Incumbent Jon Corzine (d) May Be In Trouble

Posted Nov 20, 2008 at 1:17 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

Incumbent New Jersey Governor Jon Corzine may have a tough time in his reelection bid next year. According to a new Quinnipiac survey, Gov. Jon Corzine (D) leads U.S. Attorney Christopher Christie (R), 42% to 36% among registered voters. Additionally, more than half of registered voters in New Jersey (51% to 37%) say that the Democrat does not deserve to be reelected.