Contradicting a Quinnipiac poll released late last week, a new Siena Research Institute survey reports that "A clear majority of voters, 55%, would prefer Governor David Paterson serve the remainder of his term, compared to 37% who would like him to resign and allow Lt. Governor Richard Ravitch to serve as governor for the remainder of the year. And an even larger majority, 71 percent, would rather see the Governor finish his term, while 21 percent would like the State Legislature to move to impeach the Governor if he does not resign."

With even more harmful stories circulating last week about embattled NY Governor David Paterson, a new Quinnipiac poll reports that voters are now split 46% to 42% over whether Paterson should finish his term rather than resign. Just a few days earlier, Quinnipiac found, by a 61% to 31% margin, voters wanted Paterson serving to serve out his term. 

Despite being battered by a series of punishing news cycles, a new Quinnipiac poll in New York reports that 61% of voters want incumbent Democratic Governor David Paterson to finish out his term, this despite a dismal 24% approval rating and an increasing number of political figures calling for him to resign.

Who is ahead in the possible Democratic primary for US Senate in New York? A new Siena College poll finds incumbent Kirsten Gillibrand (D-NY) holds a significant +26% lead over former Rep. Harold Ford--42% to 16%. In general election hypothetical match-ups, Gillibrand trails former GOP Gov. George Pataki, 47% to 41%, but she trounces Daily News publisher Mort Zuckerman, 49% to 29%.

According to PollTrack's first read of the 2010 US Senate Race in New York, incumbent Democrat Kirsten Gillibrand appears to have the edge in this Democrat-leaning state. PollTrack First Call: Leans Democrat.

According to several new polls, incumbent Democratic Gov. David Paterson's approval number is slowly but surely inching upward. A new Quinnipiac poll in New York, which mirrors the finding in a Siena Institute poll released yesteday, finds that Paterson's approval rate is now 40%, up from 30% in October. However, New York State Attorney General Andrew Cuomo (D) still leads Paterson, 60% to 23%, in a possible Democratic primary race for governor.

Is former NYC Republican mayor Rudolph Giuliani the GOP's best hope of defeating incumbent US Senator Kristen Gillibrand next year? A new Rasmussen Reports poll has Giuliani leading Gillibrand, 53% to 40% among likely New York voters. The poll, conducted Nov. 23, is nearly identical to a Marist poll of registered voters reporting at +14% lead for Giuliani, 54% to 40%.

According to a new Marist institute survey, incumbent Governor David Psterson his way behind both his Democratic rivals--especially popular Attorney General Andrew Cuomo--and in hypothetical match ups with his Republican rivals: "Among Democrats statewide, 72% report they would support Cuomo if the Democratic primary were held today while just 21% say they would vote for Paterson . . . Former U.S. Representative Rick Lazio has made no bones about the fact that he wants to be the Republican nominee for governor.  But, how does he stack up against his possible, Democratic opponents?  If Andrew Cuomo were the Democratic nominee and the election were held today, Cuomo would defeat Lazio by an almost three-to-one margin.  Cuomo receives 69% of voters’ support to Lazio’s 24%.  When Lazio is pitted against Governor David Paterson, the race is more competitive.  In fact, voters divide.  44% of the electorate would back Paterson, and 44% would cast their ballot for Lazio.  12% are undecided.  Little has changed in both of these hypothetical matchups since Marist last asked about about them in mid-September.

If the 2010 US Senate election in New York were help now, Rasmussen reports, Incumbent Democrat Kirsten Gillibrand would just squeak by her presumptive Republican challenger, former NY Governor George Pataki. In the hypothetical match up, Gillibrand bests Pataki, 45% to 42%. 

According to a new Siena Institute poll, incumbent Democratic NY Governor David Paterson has fallen behind all of his potential GOP challengers: "Less than one year before the 2010 elections and less than 10 months before the currently scheduled primary date, Governor David Paterson trails Attorney General Andrew Cuomo by nearly 60 points in a potential Democratic primary, trails former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani by more than 20 points, and for the first time trails former Congressman Rick Lazio by three points, according to a new Siena (College) Research Institute poll of registered voters. Of 26 potential candidates for statewide office next year that Siena tested – Republicans and Democrats, incumbents and challengers – only Cuomo and Senator Charles Schumer on the Democratic side and Giuliani and former Governor George Pataki on the Republican side have favorability ratings over 50 percent."

In the pending Democratic primary, Paterson fares even less well: “'While the Governor’s favorability rating saw slight improvement, no other measure of his electability increased noticeably. In a Democratic primary against Cuomo, Paterson fell even further behind, 75-16 percent, and in a general election matchup against Lazio, Paterson trails for the first time ever, albeit closely 42-39 percent. In the Democratic primary, Cuomo now has a two-to-one lead over Paterson among African American voters,'” said Siena pollster Steven Greenberg. 'While it’s true that the Governor’s new commercials had only been airing for less than a week while Siena was polling, it seems clear that he’s going to have to spend a lot of campaign funds very early to even have a chance of improving the measurements by which voters judge David Paterson.'”

Last Tuesday's special election in New York's 23rd congressional district was dramatic in in terms of its result: no Democrat has held this seat in over a century. So, does the result suggest a permanent realignment or a fluke in the district? The answer is unclear at this point. As Stuart Rothenberg suggests, a divided Republican party--fraught with in-fighting--may well have handed the seat to the Democrat in a largely GOP district: "Bill Owens' victory in New York's 23rd was the good news for Democrats this week and continued the party's winning streak in competitive House special elections. But the dynamic that helped Owens win- including a divided Republican Party- can't be ignored and aren't likely to be replicated again. For now, his reelection next year is a pure toss-up." Still, PollTrack wonders if the party's internal squabbles will cause it to lose more seats next year, as ultra-conservative attempts to knock off Republican moderates in the primaries results in unelectable GOP contenders in the general election.

Polls in NY-23 were highly inaccurate, in the end, for three reasons: [1] congressional districts are very difficult to sample, with too small a population to get a readable and representative sample. [2] the race was highly volatile [3] one candidate dropped out, thus making it almost impossible to gauge where here supporters would ultimately wind up over such a short time period. The polling director of Public Policy Polling, which was way off in its numbers in the district, writes: ""I made a poor judgment call by not just killing it when Scozzafava dropped out and then endorsed Owens. Like any pollster we will make mistakes, we will just try not to make the same ones twice. Obviously the bizarre machinations in the race last weekend made it extremely volatile and if we ever a poll a race this strange again we will make better decisions (or maybe make the most prudent decision to just sit such a contest out!) But I apologize for putting bad information out there, it is very embarrassing."

Democrat Bill Owens has been projected the winner in the special election in New York's 23rd congressional district.

Several news organizations have declared Michael Bloomberg as the winner of the Mayor's race in New York City over his Democratic Challenger, Bill Thompson.

With 63% of precincts reporting in the special election in New York's 23rd Congresional District, Democrat Bill Owens leads, but the race remains close:

Scozzafava (r) 5%

Owens (d) 49.3%

Hoffman (I) 45.5%

With Mike Bloomberg opening a modest +3% lead in New York City--and the borough of Queens, the independent mayor's strongest turf, holding the lion's share of votes still out--it looks like the incumbent mayor is headed for victory. Stay tuned.

NBC has reversed its projection of Independent Michael Bloomberg as the winner of the Mayor's race in New York City over his Democratic Challenger, Bill Thompson. Stay tuned.

For those of you waiting for a projection in New York City's mayoral race, a note of caution: be patient. There were no exit polls in New York City, so the race will be called the old fashioned way--with raw numbers.

PollTrack will be blogging live tonight, Election Night, tracking and interpreting results starting at 7:00 PM EST. So check in and stick with us for continuous coverage of the gubernatorial races in Virginia and, New Jersey,mayoral race in New York City, special election in NY-23, and the Maine "Gay Marriage" initiative and other races.

Here is a brief summary of PollTrack's FINAL polling averages for five key races in tomorrow's Off-Year Election:

Maine Gay Marriage Referendum

Lead: FOR gay marriage--+2.7%

New Jersey Governor

Lead: Republican Chris Christie--+0.5%

Virginia Governor

Lead: Republican Bob McDonnell--+14.4%

NY-23 Special Election

Lead: Conservative Doug Hoffman--+8.0%

New York City Mayor

Lead: Independent Michael Bloomberg--+12.7%

PollTrack has received no new polling for the New York City mayoral race or the special election in New York's 23rd congressional district. As a result, this mornings averages now stand as final. Please refer below for these races.

PollTrack's FINAL average of polling in New York's 23rd Congressional District for 2009 special election:

Bill Owens (D): 35.0%

Doug Hoffman (I-Conservative): 43.0%

Dede Scozzafava (R): 8.0%

Lead: Conservative Doug Hoffman--+8.0%

PollTrack's average of polling in New York City for the 2009 Mayoral race:

Michael Bloomberg (I, Incumbent): 52.0%

Bill Thompson (D): 39.3%

Lead: Independent Michael Bloomberg--+12.7%

With Republican Dede Scozzafava pulling out of the special election in New York's 23rd congressional district, many observers have jumped to the conclusion that most of her voters will jump to Conservative Party candidate (and recipient of many GOP endorsements over the past few weeks) Doug Hoffman. PollTrack is joining a number of commentators over the past 24 hours in saying: not so fast. In examining the cross tabs in the most recent Siena Institute poll of the district, one thing is clear: Scozzafava supporters are often as moderate--or even more so--than the candidate herself.

Among her supporters, president Obama enjoys considerable support, and Hoffman's favorable rating remains low. So where will these voters go this coming Tuesday: some with vote for Scozzafava anyway. Some will move over to Hoffman out of party loyalty (the national and local GOP have now endorsed him). And some will undoubtedly vote for Democrat Bill Owens. The outcome may well be a squeaker between the Democrat and Conservative Party candidates. PollTrack is trolling around for any polling in the district over the next 48 hours. So stay tuned.

PollTrack's average of polling in New York's 23rd Congressional District for 2009 special election:

Bill Owens (D): 29.6%

Doug Hoffman (I-Conservative): 32.3%

Dede Scozzafava (R): 18.3%

Lead: Conservative Doug Hoffman--+2.7%

PollTrack's average of polling in New York City for the 2009 Mayoral race:

Michael Bloomberg (I, Incumbent): 53.0%

Bill Thompson (D): 36.5%

Lead: Independent Michael Bloomberg--+16.%

One recent poll in the special election in New York's 23rd Congressional District, suggests that the Democrat still leads in the traditionally Republican stronghold. According to the Daily Kos (in conjunction with Research 2000), Democrat Bill Owens leads the three-way contest with 35% of the vote, Republican Dede Scozzafava has 30% and Conservative Party nominee Doug Hoffman is at 23%. The dymamics of this race appear to be fairly obvious: with the moderate Republican and Conservative party candidate splitting the GOP vote, the Democrat squeaks through. Or are they, two polls sponsored by the GOP in the district suggests that the GOP candidate's relatively liberal views--on abortion and gay marriage, for example--have put her in the position of splitting the vote with moderate Democrat Owens. The result: both polls show Hoffman in the lead, their combined aggregate number by +4.5%. Stay tuned.

A newly released Quinnipiac poll reports that New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg has expanded his lead over NYC Democratic comptroller Bill Thompson (D) by +18% among likely voters--53% to 35%--with 10% still undecided. These numbers are consusten with other recent polls showing Bloomberg pulling away from his challenger.

SurveyUSA reports that Independent incumbent Mayor Michael Bloomberg of New York bests his Democratic challenger, City Comptroller Bob Thompson by a commanding +12%, 53% to 41%. Bloomberg's PollTrack average lead is +14%--52.5% to 38.5%.

The Siena College Research Institute reports that the GOP candidate in the upcoming special election in New York's staunchly Republican 13th district may be in trouble: "In the last two weeks, Democrat Bill Owens has turned a seven-point deficit into a four-point lead over Republican Assembly Member Dede Scozzafava. Owens has the support of 33 percent of likely voters in the 23rd Congressional District, followed by Scozzafava at 29 percent and Conservative candidate Doug Hoffman at 23 percent, up seven points in the last two weeks . . . Owens leads with Democrats and in the eastern portion of the district. Scozzafava leads with Republicans and in the western portion of the district. Hoffman leads with independent voters and in the southern portion of the district. About two-thirds of voters have seen or heard commercials for Scozzafava and Owens, helping Owens and hurting Scozzafava."

The eminent political analyst Charlie Cook provides this reading of the race on his website: "It's never a good sign when the blame game commences before the election even takes place. But that's exactly what's happening in GOP ranks three weeks before voters go to to the polls in the NY-23 special election, at a time when the party's House prospects are booming just about everywhere else. The twist? The 'conservative Republican' spoiler is actually stealing more votes from independents than Republicans."

The latest SurveyUSA poll of New York City voters reports a huge lead for incumbent Mayor Mike Bloomberg: "Bloomberg is today at or above 50% in all five boroughs, among young and old voters, among the more educated and less educated, among the more affluent and less affluent, among whites and Hispanics, and among Democrats and Republicans." The numbers for the Mayor are impressive: the poll finds independent candidate Mike Bloomberg crushing his Democratic challenger Bill Thompson, 55% to 38%--a whopping +17% lead.

With less than a month to go in New York City's race for Mayor, popular incumbent Mike Bloomberg (I) faces a surprisingly strong challenge from his Democrat opponent, City Comptroller Bill Thompson according to a new SurveyUSA survey: "It's Bloomberg 51%, Thompson 43%. Bloomberg has outspent Thompson 16:1. Bloomberg, first elected in 2001, term-limited until the law was changed to permit him to seek a 3rd term, leads among older voters, trails among younger voters. The Democratic challenger leads in Brooklyn and The Bronx. The billionaire incumbent, who is running on the Republican and Independence Party lines, leads in Manhattan, Queens and Staten Island. Thompson leads among blacks, Bloomberg leads among whites, Hispanics and Asians. Democrats split. Republicans and Independents back Bloomberg."

With very high approval ratings, as high as 70% in recent months, Bloomberg's diminished showing relative to his popularity stems from two problems: voter resentment with his successful attempt to suspend voter approved term-limits in order to run for a third term and the increasing clout of the Working Families Party, a union-supported independent party that usually backs Democrats in New York City races and has a proven ability to increase turnout for its candidates in cycles where overall turnout is moderate to low.

A recently released Quinnipiac poll of New York City voters reports that Democrat William Thompson achieved no bounce after his primary victory and trails Mayor Michael Bloomberg by 16 points, 52% to 36%. This gives Bloomber a lead of +16%, a whopping margin for an election that is only five weeks away.

In New york City's upcoming mayoralty race, independent incumbent Michael Bloomberg continues to hold a significant lead over his Democratic challenger, Bill Thompson, according to a new Marist Institute poll: "Early numbers show the incumbent, [Bloomberg], with 50% of registered voters compared with 39% for his Democratic challenger, New York City Comptroller Bill Thompson.  10% say they are unsure.  In a [July, a Marist survey], 48% reported they backed Bloomberg, 35% supported Thompson, and 17% were unsure. When looking at those all-important likely voters including those who are undecided yet leaning toward a candidate, Bloomberg has 52% to Thompson’s 43%." Significantly, Bloomberg is at or above the crucial 50% mark. One major reason for Thompson' troubles: lukewarm Democratic support, with 43% of party members supporting Bloomberg and 46% behind Thompson.

Wondering how poorly New York Democratic Governor David Paterson is doing with voters in his state? What is undoubtedly one of the lowest approval ratings for a sitting governor, only 20% of New Yorkers think he is performing well in office while 34% say he is doing a poor job.  As a recently released Marist Poll concludes: "Paterson has had no luck climbing out of the political basement. In Marist’s June survey, the governor garnered a 21% approval rating.  On month prior, he chalked up 19%. The news for Governor Paterson gets even worse.  When looking at party, he is even scraping bottom with his fellow Democrats.  Just 24% of Democrats say he is doing well as governor.  12% of Republicans and 22% of non-enrolled voters agree."

According to a new Quinnipiac poll, incumbent New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg [I] leads his likely Democratic challenger, Comptroller William Thompson [D], 50% to 35%. Compared to a 47% to 37% lead last month, Bloomberg has significantly expanded his advantage over Thompson. Among Republicans, Bloomberg leads 76% to 13%; he leads 54% to 28% among independents; while Democrats split 44% to 44%. The latter number, PollTrack believes, bodes very poorly for Thompson, who cannot win without significant support from fellow Democrats.

If former Republican Governor George Pataki runs against incumbent Senator Kirsten Gillibrand, he would have a slight edge in next year's race according to a new Siena College poll. In a hypothetical match up, the survey finds former Pataki leading Gillibrand, 42% to 39%. These numbers are so close--and so far away from next year's race--that they are statistically insignificant. Yet, in a sign of the Democrat's relative strength against a lesser known, and less popular Republican, she bests Long Island Rep. Peter King (R-NY), 46% to 24%.

According to a new Quinnipiac University poll, NY State Attorney General Andrew Cuomo would crush incumbent Governor David Paterson in the 2010 Democratic gubernatorial primary: The poll finds Cuomo trouncing Paterson (D) in a possible gubernatorial primary, 61% to 15%. In general election match ups, Republican Rudy Giuliani leads Paterson, 53% to 33%, while Cuomo beats Giuliani, 48% to 39%.

If pollsters are any guide, the 2009 race for Mayor of New York remains a bit under the radar compared to Gubernatorial races in New Jersey and Virginia. With only one poll released since June--a Quinnipiac survey issued last week--it's very difficult for PollTrack to provide credible analysis of the state of the race. As reported earlier, incumbent Independent Mayor Mike Bloomberg registered a lead as high as +18% (last May). According to the most recent poll, it's down to +10%, but PollTrack cautions that a single poll is a much less accurate gauge than a full-dress poll average.

In New York's race for Mayor, it looks like incumbent Independent Michael Bloomberg remains ahead, but by a far smaller margin. While polling is so sparse that PollTrack is not able to make a credible polling average, the Mayor has consistently led his probable challenger, NY Comptroller William C. Thompson Jr. by as much as 25 points. A new Quinnipiac poll released yesterday finds a closer race, with Bloomberg leading Thompson by ten points, 47% to 37%, a Bloomberg advantage of +10%.

Incumbent US Senator Kirsten Gillibrand has her work cut out for her in next's years Democratic primary in New York. According to A Rasmussen survey of likely Democratic voters, challenger, Democratic Congresswoman Caroline beats Gillibrand 33% to 27% in a hypothetical match-up. Two things to consider: neither woman is well-known to New York voters, the number of undecideds remains very high at 33%, and the spread is just outside the 5 percent margin of error.In other words, the race remains a toss up according to PollTrack's calculations.

While New York's incumbent Democratic Governor, David Paterson, continues to sufffer from low approval ratings--now in the mid-30% range--his standing with voters has inched slightly upward in recent weeks. According to a Siena Research Institute survey, the Democrat, who faces election in 2010, was rated favorably by 36% of registered voters; unfavorably by 56%. The poll, conducted last week, reports an increase from 31% favorability in June 2009 and 27% in May. The recent chaotic breakdown of the NY State Legislature, deadlocked by a leadership struggle over, actually appears to help the Governor:  64% of voters gave Paterson credit for playing some role in resolving the state Senate fight.

The political climate continues to look bleak for incumbent Democratic Governor David Paterson in New York state. His current approval rating is so low, that he runs far behind his presemptive Democratic primary and GOP general election challengers in hypothetical matchups: "It’s a knockout for Rudy Giuliani if he’s the Republican candidate for governor in New York next year running against incumbent Democrat David Paterson. But if Andrew Cuomo is Giuliani’s opponent, chalk up a win for the Democrat. At least that’s the way it looks in the summer of 2009." A new Rasmussen Reports survey shows "Giuliani beating Paterson by 22 points, 55% to 33%. 8% prefer some other candidate, and five percent are undecided. However, Cuomo tops Giuliani by seven points – 48% to 41% - in a match-up between the two, with 6% favoring some other candidate and 6% not sure who they’ll vote for. At this point, it appears Giuliani is likely to face the tougher of the two Democrats since a survey of Democratic Primary voters shows Cuomo ahead of Paterson 61% to 27%.

Things continue to look bleak for incumbent Democratic Governor Jon Corzine in his 2009 reelection bid. A new Quinnipiac University poll reports that "Republican challenger Christopher Christie is pulling away from Corzine and now holds a 53% to 41% lead among likely voters in the New Jersey Governor's race . . . This compares to a 50 - 40 percent lead for the former federal prosecutor in a June 10 survey. In a three-way matchup among likely voters, Christie leads Gov. Corzine 47% to 38% percent, with 8% for independent candidate Christopher Daggett.  . . . In the two-way face-off, Corzine leads 76 - 19 percent among Democratic likely voters, while Christie leads 89% to 7% among Republicans and 64% to 28% percent among independent voters. This is a jump from Christie's 56 - 32 percent lead among independent voters June 10. In a three-way race, Daggett gets 13 percent of independent voters, with 54 percent for Christie and 24 percent for Corzine."

Things seem to just get worse and worse for New York Governor David Paterson. A new Marist College Poll reports: "The news for Governor David Paterson remains grim.  The governor’s approval rating is an abysmal 21%, and with the New York State Senate in disarray, nearly half of the state’s electorate says they disapprove of the way in which the governor is handling the situation while 43% approve.  To make matters even worse, more than six in ten registered voters disapprove of the way Paterson is dealing with the state’s economic crisis.How bad is Governor Paterson’s political situation?  The answer is pretty bad.  According to The Marist Poll’s new statewide survey, about one in five registered voters in New York — 21% — report that Governor Paterson is doing either an excellent or good job in office.  Voters’ view of the governor’s job performance is little changed since The Marist Poll last asked this question in May.  At that time, 19% of voters gave Paterson’s job performance above average marks.  And, the governor still does not receive affirmation from a major share of voters within his own party.  However, he has received a slight bump among Democrats in New York State.  28% believe Governor Paterson is doing an excellent or good job in office.  This compares with the 22% of Democrats he received in May."

According to a new Siena Institute Poll, incumbent New York Governor David Paterson remains very unpopular with voters: His approval rating is just 31%. In a hypothetical Democratic primary match up, New York Attorney General Andrew Cuomo crushes Paterson, 69% to 16%. In general election match ups, Rudy Giuliani would also crush Paterson, 57% to 27%, while Cuomo would beat Giuliani, 49% to 40%.

A new poll out from Quinnipiac University suggests that incumbent NY mayor Michael Bloomberg will hab a very easy time come his November reelection bout against presumptive Democratic nominee and New York City Comptroller, William Thompson. According to Quinnipiac, Bloomberg, who will run as an indepdent, bests Thompson 54% to 32%. The election at this point looks like a romp for the popular mayor. He currently leads Thompson in all sectors of the political spectrum--49% to 40% among Democrats; 71% to 12% among Republicans; and 59% to 26% among independent voters.

Former GOP New York Governor George Pataki would make a formidable opponent against Democratic US Senator Kirsten Gillibrand in her 2010 reelection effort. Indeed, with a relative low approval rating, the Democrat may have a tough reelection race. A new Siena Institute poll reports:  "While 27 percent of voters are prepared to elect her Senator in 2010, 39 percent of voters prefer 'someone else.' This is a significant improvement for Gillibrand since April when it was 20-47 percent. In head-to-head matchups, Gillibrand leads Nassau County Congressman Peter King 48-26 percent (up slightly from 47-23 percent in March). But, significantly, she remains tied with Pataki 43-43 percent (was 41-41 percent in March)."

Things continue to look very dire for Governor David Paterson's 2010 reelection chances. According to a new Siena Institute Poll, his approval rating remains at a record low level: "Paterson is viewed favorably by 27 percent of voters and unfavorably by 60 percent, virtually identical to last month’s 27-63 percent. His job performance rating is 18 percent positive, 81 percent negative, unchanged from last month. Only 15 percent of voters are prepared to elect Paterson as Governor in 2010, compared to 71 percent who prefer someone else,' barely up from 12-71 percent in April."

“Voters are continuing to deliver bad news to the Governor. His popularity remains at record low levels, with more than twice as many voters having an unfavorable view of him as have a favorable view and fewer than one in five voters saying he’s doing an excellent or good job as Governor,” said Siena New York pollster
Steven Greenberg. “If a Democratic primary were held today, Andrew Cuomo would beat David Paterson by a 70-19 percent margin, with African American voters supporting Cuomo by better than two-to-one.”
“

Things continue to look bleak for Democratic incumbent Governor David Paterson for his 2010 reelection bid: A new Quinnipiac poll finds Andrew Cuomo (D) beating Gov. David Paterson (D), 62% to 17%. Paterson's 61% to 28% disapproval is at an historic low, even below former Governor Spitzer during his infamous resignation last year. "With support in every demographic sub-group, including a 22-point lead among black voters, Attorney General Andrew Cuomo trounces Gov. Paterson in a Democratic primary. Paterson has time to turn things around before the 2010 election, of course, but there's not a hint of good news for him in this poll." The general election match up, though close, bodes well for Cuomo: he leads Rudy Giuliani (R), 47% to 41%.

While not by a landslide by any means, Democrat Scott Murphy has official won the special election in New York's 20th-Congressional District to replace now US Senator kirsten Gillibrand. According to the Albany Times Union, Murphy won his seat in Congress over Jim Tedisco by 726 votes.  The final tally, which the commissioners will meet to certify at a noon meeting in Albany, is 80,833 to 80,107.

According to a Marist Institute Poll, Democratic NY Senator Kirsten Gillibrand is in a weak position, re: her 2010 reelection bid: "Hers was an atypical ascent to the Senate, and . . . Gillibrand has a long way to go to convince New Yorkers that she belongs there . . . 19% of voters today think she is doing an above average job.  And, more voters have formed an opinion of Gillibrand.  While half of voters back in March reported they weren’t quite sure how Gillibrand was doing, fewer — 43% — feel that way now.  However, there’s a rub.  More New York voters — 10% — currently view Gillibrand as doing a subpar job compared with two months ago when 5% shared that view. . . "

". . . . What are Senator Gillibrand’s chances for election to the U.S. Senate in 2010?  In a hypothetical matchup against former New York State Governor George Pataki, Gillibrand trails Pataki, 38% to 46%.  Gillibrand has lost ground to the former governor.  In Marist' March surve, Gillibrand led Pataki 45% to 41%.  Although still in the lead, Gillibrand has also lost support in a hypothetical pairing against U.S. Representative Peter King.  Currently, 42% of voters say they would back Gillibrand while 31% report they would vote for King.  27% are unsure.  However, in March, Gillibrand led King 49% to 28% with 23% reporting they were uncertain about whom they would support."

Can unpopular Democratic NY Governor David Paterson get reelected next year? The answer may well be no, if a new Marist Institute poll is correct: "Not quite one-fifth of New York registered voters statewide — 19% — report that Governor David Paterson is doing either an excellent or good job in office. That is a seven percentage point drop since The Marist Poll last asked this question in its Masrch 2009 survey. In fact, voters are so dissatisfied with the governor’s performance that a majority — 51% — say they would prefer his sex scandal-plagued predecessor, Eliot Spitzer, be in office than he. On both questions, Paterson doesn’t even receive backing from a majority of voters in his own party. Just 22% of Democrats think he is doing well as governor, and half say, 'Resurrect Spitzer!'" PollTrack suggests that these numbers are striking, lower than any NY state governor in the history of statewide polling. It's hard to see how Paterson could win his party's nomination at this point--especially running against the state very popular Democratic Atoorney General Andrew Cuomo--let alone the 2010 general election.

How much did it cost Democratic Scott Murphy and his Republican challenger, Jim Tedisco, to battle it out in the recent special election in New York's 20th Congressional district?: $6 million according to a report in CQ Politics: "Murphy, who won the March 31 special House election in upstate New York, and state Rep. Jim Tedisco, his Republican opponent, combined to spend more than $3.8 million on that exceptionally close race. According to campaign finance documents filed with the Federal Election Commission (FEC), Murphy raised $2.15 million and Tedisco raised $1.68 million through April 20. They raised those prodigious sums even though the campaign only began in January, after Democrat Kirsten Gillibrand— who had won a second term in the 20th District seat last November — resigned to accept an appointment to the U.S. Senate seat that Democrat Hillary Rodham Clinton vacated to become secretary of State. Add to this, the more than $2 million worth of contributions from the respective political parties' congressional committees, and you're talking a good $6 million spent in NY-20. 

With Democrat Scott Murphy leading by 400-votes out of 160,000 votes cast--and several hundred paper ballots yet to be counted--Republican Jim Tedisco called his opponent yesterday afternoon and conceeded the special election to replace former Democratic representative Kirsten Gillibrand in New York's 20th congressional district. Scott Murphy has thus won the closely contested election and will become the next congressman in what has become a classic swing district. A referendum on Obama or the Republican Party? PollTrack believes that the closeness of the election, in a district with a Republican voter registration advantage of 75,000, while not a barometer of the political fortunes of either party, still suggests trouble for the GOP.

While the tally in the NY-20 Special Election remains close, PollTrack believes that the disposition of the remaining contested absentee ballots--their demographic breakdown--suggest that the Democrat Scott Murphy is headed for victory. As if to underscore this analysis, each new day of counting appears to increase the Democrat's lead:: As of late yesterday, Murphy's lead over Assemblyman Jim Tedisco has grown to 401-votes. According to Politiker NY, "the new tally reflects updated numbers from Warren and Essex counties. Counting is still taking place in Saratoga and Washington counties. Most of Murphy's gain came from Warren County, Democratic Elections Commissioner and Party Chairman Bill Monfort, said. The new overall number reflects a tally from 250 ballots set aside and now counted in the last two days."

Roll Call reports that Tedisco realizes that he has lost the election: "A GOP source on Capitol Hill said Thursday afternoon that Republican Jim Tedisco’s camp has abandoned hope of winning New York’s 20th district special election but that the former state Assembly Minority Leader won’t concede the race to Democrat Scott Murphy until technical legal questions surrounding voter residency issues are resolved.The source said that Tedisco believes the residency issues that came up during absentee vote counting after the March 31 contest could have a bearing on future races in New York. As such, the source said, Tedisco wants to see those issues resolved before ending the legal battle."

The race remains close and is far frrom over in the special election in New York's 20th congressional district to fill the seat vacated by now US Senator Kristen Gillibrand. According to Politiker NY: "The ballot-counting will likely go on for a long time, in light of a just issued court ruling. Judge James Brands declined to set a specific standard regarding valid residency, and said that objections lodged on the basis of ballot applications will stand. While Democrat Scott Murphy leads Jim Tedisco by 273 votes according to the official tally, there are some 1,800 votes left uncounted. The ruling favors the Tedisco camp--or at least buys them time. Brands [ruled] that applications for absentee ballots were correctly provided to both campaigns, and that objections to ballots lodged based on these applications do stand.  "Common sense dictates that in order to intelligently form a decision as to whether an objection should be made, the application's content must of necessity be perused," Brands wrote."

Politico reports that the special election in NY-20, now a virtual tie with Democrat Scott Murphy maintaining what may be an insurmountable lead, may wind up being decided by the courts, if the GOP has its way: "As the count begins to wind down, it seems like the GOP is prepared for a protracted court battle, at least by the sound of this internal memo sent this afternoon by a National Republican Congressional Committee staffer:

From: ********** [mailto:********@nrcc.org]
Sent: Thursday, April 16, 2009 12:04 PM
To:
Subject: NY-20 Update

Hi there, I wanted to give you an update on NY-20. As of last night, Tedisco was down by only 86 votes (Official BOE count). This represents a .05% differential between the two campaigns. Seven of the ten counties have completed counting their absentee ballots and all ballot counting should be complete by Friday. 6,200 absentee ballots have been counted so far with approximately 570 remaining. Approximately, 1,550 absentee ballots have been challenged by attorneys for either the Tedisco or Murphy campaigns. These ballots are not included in the overall numbers. The election will most likely be decided in the courts."

At this point in the counting of ballots in the special congressional election in NY-20, Democrat Scott Murphy has a 273-vote lead over Republican Jim Tedisco. PollTrack believes that this advantage will be enough to secure victory for the Democrat. The Republican Party, however, has vowed to take the matter to count. Challenged absentee ballots--numbering over 1,000--will be counted on Monday. Most of these have been challenged by the Republicans, suggesting that there is little change that even if all of these were included in the total, Tedisco could overtake Murphy's lead.

Minnesota all over again? Politico reports that there is a battle brewing over absentee ballots in the hotly contested--and now virtually tied--NY-20 special election: "Just like in the Minnesota Senate recount, the special election in New York’s Twentieth District looks like it will be determined by disputed absentee ballots. Both campaigns have already challenged the legality of around 600 absentee ballots, which have been pulled aside and not included in the current count. Democrats estimate that the majority of the challenges -- about 60 percent – have come from Republican Jim Tedisco. Indeed, Republicans have been especially aggressive in challenging absentee ballots in Columbia County, which Murphy won on Election Night by more than 1,880 votes. Tedisco has already challenged at least 63 absentee ballots there, and the campaign has flagged around 200 absentee ballots as questionable.Tedisco’s campaign has also challenged several dozen absentees in Dutchess County, another county that backed Murphy. Nearly all of Tedisco’s challenges center on the voters’ residency. Republicans are arguing that voters who establish a primary residence outside the district – and receive tax benefits there – are ineligible to vote in the district. Democrats dispute that interpretation of state election law, and argue that as long as voters are registered at one address, they’re eligible to vote there."

Democrat Scott Murphy has taken the lead over Republican Jim Tedisco in the hotly contested and razor-close congressional race in NY-20. According to the latest tally from the New York State Board of Elections, Murphy leads by 35-votes. One ray of hope fpr Tedisco: the district's largest--and most Republican--county has yet to report the count of its absentee and overseas ballots. Given the 8% lead that Tedisco held in Saratoga County on election night--and the large pool of voters from this area--are these uncounted paper ballots holding a sharp GOP advantage. If Tedisco leads by the same margin in this voter pool--8%--he will undoubtedly take the lead. Stay tuned.

According to the New York State Board of Elections, Republican Jim Tedisco Leads Democrat Scott Murphy by 17-votes in the special election to replace congresswoman Kerstin Gillibrand. As of late yesterday, the official tally with most counties now re-canvassed reads as follows:

Scott Murphy (D):   77,017

Jim Tedisco (R):     77,034

The Albany Times Union reports that counties will begin counting absentee ballots today, despite Tedisco insistence that counting resume only after all of the ballots are in: "Lawyers for Republican Jim Tedisco argued Monday the ballots should not be opened until April 14, the day after the deadline for receipt of all absentee ballots, both overseas military and domestic. Lawyers for Democrat Scott Murphy argued that although the elections commissioners in the 10-county district must wait until April 14 to count military ballots, that is no reason not to start counting the other ballots Wednesday, the day after they are due. Judge James Brands agreed with Murphy's legal team. Brands wrote in his decision: 'While this court agrees with counsel that there should be no rush in this process to the detriment of a fair and accurate account, it occurs to this court that both the candidates and the constituency they serve are entitled to a prompt resolution of this contested election which apparently is in a deadlock with each candidate having the same number of votes.'"

Michael Barone, in an excellent analysis of the absentee ballots already received (but still uncounted) in the NY-20 special election, concludes that there are contradictory signs, one pointing to a slight Democratic advantage, the other a slight Republican tilt: "Of those 5,995 votes, 48 percent were cast by registered Republicans, 36 percent were cast by registered Democrats and 16 percent by others. That's a 12 percent Republican advantage, a little less than the 15 percent advantage Republicans have in total party identification. It suggests to me a pretty good Democratic absentee voter drive, since registered Democrats in an Upstate New York district are likelier to be behavioral Democrats than registered Republicans are to be behavioral Republicans. (Reasons: a lot of people register Republican to vote in legislative and local primaries in jurisdictions which are now or have been heavily Republican in general elections; some people may have registered as Republicans years ago out of conviction but lately have been voting Democratic, which is in line with the Democratic trend over the last decade or so in Upstate New York)."

Barone concludes: "Thus this absentee electorate could be a little more Democratic than the voters who voted on election day. However, it's also possible that an effective Republican absentee voter drive targeted those registered Republicans who also indicate that they are behavioral Republicans; if I were setting up an absentee voter drive that's what I'd aim at doing. So this absentee electorate could be a little more Republican than the electorate as a whole. There's no real way to know until the votes are counted."

One factor to consider, as PollTrack observes, is that more absentee ballots were returned from registered Republicans than Democrats. As Tedisco lead inches every so slightly upward in the re-cancassing state, will these votes put him over the top? Or will many of these GOP voters break from their party to vote for Murphy? The outcome of NY-20 ultimately rests on the question of how registered Republicans will break in absentee voting. 

Incredibly, with a number of counties yet to re-canvass, the two candidates are now tied: "As counties continue a routine recount of voting machine results, the two candidates in the 20th Congressional District race are locked in a dead heat. James Tedisco and Scott Murphy have 77,225 votes each as of this afternoon, said John Conklin, spokesman for the state Board of Elections. Warren, Rensselaer, Otsego, Dutchess and Delaware counties have finished recanvassing their voting machines, and the updated number reflects their new totals. The other five counties, which includes Saratoga County, have not finished recounting the results, so the total is likely to change in the coming days, Conklin said." PollTrack notes gain that saratoga County--the largest in the district--is also vastly Republican in registration, so it's unclear how its re-canvassing will effect the outcome. Stay tuned.

The PolitickerNY.com reports that Democrat Scott Murphy's lead has evaporated. As voting machines are re-canvassed in New York's 20th Congressional District, Republican Jim Tedisco has picked up 37 votes, evaporating Democrat Scott Murphy's lead. Republican Tedisco now leads by 12 votes, 77,236 to 77,224. Yesterday, Tedisco trailed by 25 votes after a recanvass in Columbia County. Elections workers in Rensselaer, Dutchess, Columbia and Otsego counties looked over their tallies today. Other counties will do so in the coming days. A possible problem for Murphy: Saratoga County--the largest in the 20th CD one of the most Republican by registration (Tedisco led by 8% in the county on Election Night) has yet to re-canvass their tallies.

According to a Siena Research Institute survey, Democratic New York Governor David Paterson is very unpopular with voters: "David Paterson is now viewed unfavorably by twice as many New York voters as those who view him favorably, and four times as many voters rate the job he is doing as Governor as only fair or poor compared to those who say he is doing an excellent or good job as Governor . . . . If a Democratic primary for Governor were held today, Paterson would lose to Attorney General Andrew Cuomo by nearly four-to-one, and Paterson would be easily beaten in a general election by former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani."

Siena continues: "Paterson is viewed favorably by 29% of voters and unfavorably by 58%, down from last month‟s 40-47% rating. His job performance rating is 19% positive, 78% negative down from 28-69% last month. Only 14% of voters are prepared to elect Paterson as Governor in 2010, compared to 67% who prefer “someone else.” That‟s down from 19-57% last month."

It's official: with 100% of precincts reporting in NY-20, the race is tied at 50% (Democrat Murphy leads by a scant 65 votes) and is Too-Close-To-Call according to the Associated Press. AP reports: "There are at least 6,000 and possibly as many as 10,000 absentee ballots that will not be included in the results for at least a week." Since the Board of Elections has agreed to continue counting overseas absentee ballots until April 13--many of these from active duty military--this race may not be settled for a while.At this point, it is difficult to gauge the effect of these absentee votes. With some coming from military members (lean Republican), other from voters with second homes in New York City (lean Democrat), and still others from elderly residents (lean Republican), it's hard to create a demographic profile for these remaining ballots.

Here's the AP final tally:

With one precinct left, Murphy now leads by 80 votes. This race will need to be decided by absentee ballots.

The AP tally:

With Tedisco's lead actually narrowing in once solidly Republican Saratoga County, it's starting to look like a very close election, one perhaps impossible to call until the 6,000 or so absentee and military ballots are counted. The evening may well end up without a winner.

The latest from AP:

Although the vote is now tied, 50% to 50%, PollTrack notes that in the biggest Republican (and largest) county in the 20th--Saratoga--almost 35% of precincts remain uncounted. A number of counties more favorable to Democrat Murphy have reported 100% of their vote. Could this suggest a Tedisco surge as the evening wears on? With more than 40 precincts still out in Saratoga, the Republican may have a hidden advantage.

The latest from Associated Press:

As of 9:45 PM, it's a tie:

Early results from the Associated Press suggest it could be a long night. The results are at this very early stage, very close:

According to the Albany Times Union, "those who are hoping to avoid a late night, better hope that the 20th Congressional race has at least a good 6,000 vote margin. As of yesterday, there were 5,907 absentee ballots received by the state Board of Elections, according to spokesman Bob Brehm. Absentee ballots must be postmarked by yesterday, March 30 and received within 7 days (for regular absentee ballots) or 13 days (for military/ overseas ballots)." This could be a long night . . . or not.

The Associated Press is reporting generally light turnout in today's special election to fill the house seat vacated by Kirten Gillibrand's in New York's 20th CD: "Volunteers knocked on doors and surrogates fired off e-mails Tuesday afternoon amid reports of light turnout in a special congressional election focused on President Barack Obama and his economic stimulus plan.Voters who did show up admitted to being exhausted by the torrent of negative ads from Republican Jim Tedisco and Democrat Scott Murphy . . . Polling places and local election boards reported light turnout throughout the day, not unusual in a special election in which there are no statewide offices or big names on the ballot to attract more casual voters." A truly light turnout could be good news in a congressional district with a decided Republican advantage in registration.

Politico reports that the turnout is high in one large Republican county in the 20th Congressinal District, but that the meaning of the upswing may be unclear: "Just finished visiting three precincts in Saratoga County, where turnout is well above expectations. Election officials at the three Saratoga Springs precincts said they expected about 35 percent of registered voters to cast ballots by the time polls close at 9:00 EST. On paper, that’s encouraging news for Republican Jim Tedisco because Saratoga County has traditionally been a Republican stronghold.  Tedisco also represents parts of the county in his statewide Assembly seat. But the voting patterns of the county have changed dramatically in recent years – Democrat Kirsten Gillibrand won 59 percent of the county vote last year, and President Obama carried the county with 51 percent of the vote."

For what its worth, local observers in Chatham, New York, report on the Legislative Gazette that more Republicans appear to be voting in one representative precinct but that Democrat Scott Murphy edges Republican Jim Tedisco in an informal "exit poll" of 22 voters leaving the voting station. "In Chatham, Columbia County, a part of the 20th, voters seemed to be favoring Murphy over Tedisco, but not by a large margin." The report continues: "Of the 22 voters surveyed in Chatham, 14 people voted for Murphy and eight chose Tedisco" Yet, one poll worker sees an advatange for the Republican: "After poll watching it looks like more Republicans are out." These observations, of course, are informal, unscientific, and contradictory, so PollTrack, for now, takes them with a grain of salt. But report them we must.

PollTrack is one of the few websites offering fresh reporting on today's special election in New York's 20th Congressional District. If you like what you are reading, SPREAD THE WORD. We'll have reports from our political director, Maurice Berger (who is also a part-time resident of the 20th Congressional District) throughout the day--both on our Presidential and Writing on the Wall Blog pages. These reports should satisfy political junkies as well as anyone interested in the NY-20 race, its outcome, and its national implications.

PollTrack has just received several eyewitness reports about voting in today's special election in New York's 20th congressional district. While voting is not heavy, it also appears to be greater than the usual historically low turnout in off-year or special elections. One voter described activity as brisk in her precinct in Upstate Chatham. With millions spent on the race and a cavalcade of publicity and local and national advertising and press, the NY-20 contest may well bring out more voters than the norm. Indeed, the president himself has gotten into the act, attempting to increase turnout, sending supporters a last-minute pitch Monday night. In an e-mail sent out via the Democratic National Committee's Organizing For America grassroots effort, the president urged the party's voters to head to the polls to vote for venture capitalist Scott Murphy. "I need you to go vote . . . It's going to be a very close race, and your vote could make all the difference," he wrote.

According to The Hill, a new poll by the Democratic National Congressional Committee shows the Democrat Scott Murphy leading Republican Jim Tedisco in the NY-20 special election to fill the house seat vacated by Kirsten Gillibrand. Democrat Scott Murphy leads Republican state Assemblyman Jim Tedisco by two percentage points. The poll, obtained from a Democratic source, shows Murphy leading Tedisco 43% to 41%. The Hill notes: "DCCC's poll was taken earlier this week, before the Siena College poll released Friday that showed Murphy leading Tedisco by four percentage points, 47% to 43%." An internal Republican National Congressional Committee poll lte last week also showed Murphy leading. Is the momentum with the Democrat? PollTrack thinks it's hard to gauge at this point. The district has a significant advantage in Republican registration, an important factor in special elections that tend to draw only the party faithful. In no poll does Murphy or Tedisco break the 50% mark. And all polls thus far indicate a large undecided bloc. In the end, PollTrack believes the election remains too-close-to-call and that its outcome will likely depend on turnout.

The Democratic and Republican candidates in the race to replace Kirsten Gillibrand in New York's 20th Congressional District sat down with the editorial board of a local newspaper--The Saratogian (Saratoga Springs)--for "roughly an hour each and were asked a variety of questions, ranging from the federal stimulus plan, diversification of the district's economy, ways to reduce property taxes and local budgets, and their views on government and small business." The videos provide a rare opportunity to view the candidates in an intimate setting, casually answering questions of importance to the district. For these videos, click here.

The campaign of Republican Jim Tedisco, now behind by four points in the latest survey of voters in the hotly contested NY-20 race, has launched a new attack ad, one that links Democrat Scott Murphy to the tragedy of 9/11 because of his opposition to the death penalty, even in cases of terrorism. Will the ad resonate with voters in a predominantly Republican district or will it backfire? (The Siena Poll released this morning suggests that voters see the Tedisco campaign as the more negative and angry, a view partly responsible for the Republican's net drop of 8% over the past two weeks). Here is the new advertisement:

The Democratic and Republican parties are now running ads in the highly competitive NY-20 race to fill the congressional seat vacated by Kirsten Gillibrand when she was appointed to replace outgoing NY US Senator and now Secretary of State, Hillary Clinton.

Here are the ads:

DEMOCRATIC NATIONAL COMMITTEE For Scott Murphy:

REPUBLICAN CAMPAIGN AD for Jim Tedisco:

In the dramatic race to fill the seat vacated by New York US Senator Kirstien Gillibrand, a new Siena Institute Poll reports that the Democrat, Scott Murphy has erased Republican Jim Tidesco's lead. As the special election enters the final weekend, Murphy has reversed a four-point deficit and turned it into a four-point lead over Republican Assembly Minority Leader James Tedisco. Murphy leads 47%-43%, having trailed two weeks ago by a 45%-41%. One reason for Murphy's imporovement: Tedisco’s campaign is viewed by voters as more negative by a 44%-25% margin, while Murphy’s campaign is seen as more positive. “While the percentage of likely voters supporting Murphy has risen about three points per week for the last four weeks, the percentage supporting Tedisco has dropped three points. In the last four weeks, Murphy turned a 12-point deficit into a four-point lead,” said Steven Greenberg, spokesman for the Siena New York Poll. Still, the district leans Republican. With GOP registration outnumbering Democratic, the race could come down to turnout. Perhaps somewhat ominiously for the Democrat, Siena reports that "regardless of who they are supporting, by a 45% to 35% margin, voters think Tedisco will win the election." Stay tuned for PollTrack updates.

The NY-20 congressional race to fill the seat vacated by US Senator Kirsten Gillibrand has drawn down to a virtual tie according two three news polls. A Republican National Committee poll gives the GOP candidate, Jim Tedisco, a three-point lead over Democrat Scott Murphy in the special election to be held next Tuesday. A National Republican Congressional Committee survey actually shows the Democrat leading by two points, and Tedisco's own internal polling shows him leading by just one point. PollTrack's averaging of the three polls suggests the race is too-close-to-call, a virtual tie.

A new Siena Research Institute poll indicates that incumbent New York Democrat Kirstin Gillibrand would handily defeat Republican congeessman Peter King in her 2010 reelection bid, but that former Republican Governor George Pataki would present a far more difficult challenge. If the election were held now, Sen. Gillibrand would handily defeat Rep. King (R-NY), 47% to 23%. However, Gillibrand would face a tough challenge if former New York Gov. George Pataki (R) chooses to run: the two are currently tied at 41%.

Yesterday, PollTrack reported that New York Governor David Paterson may be in trouble with his 2010 reelection effort. But speculating on the future is not the only gauge of the Democrat's troubles. Over the past two months, his support in the state has eroded dramatically. His current standing with voters is no less than dismal according to a recently released statewide survey: "39% of New York voters now approve of Paterson’s performance as governor, including just 7% who Strongly Approve . . . 59% disapprove of the job the Democratic governor is doing, with 30% who Strongly Disapprove. Only 1% don’t have an opinion." Paterson's dismal approval rating represents a 25% drop since early-January.

A new poll suggests that New York Democratic Governor David Paterson is in bad shape for his upcoming 2010 reelection bid. On all the key measures of public perceptions, the Manhattanville College poll reports Governor Paterson’s broad weakness:

"Governor Paterson is rated poorly when compared to other current and former officials in the State. He is rated favorably by only 41% of the votes and unfavorably by 46%. He is the only statewide official with an overall negative rating. Governor Paterson’s job performance is rated even more poorly by voters, with only 29% rating his performance positively and 66% negatively. The rating is weak across all regions of the state and by gender.If the election for Governor were held today, the majority of voters would prefer to vote for someone else other than Governor Paterson by a margin of 55% to 20% with 25% undecided. Governor Paterson does poorly across all regions and genders."

His current standing with voters is no better, according to another recently released survey: "39% of New York voters now approve of Paterson’s performance as governor, including just 7% who Strongly Approve . . . 59% disapprove of the job the Democratic governor is doing, with 30% who Strongly Disapprove. Only 1% don’t have an opinion." Paterson's dismal approval rating represents a 25% drop since early-January.

The race to replace US Senator Kristin Gillibrand in New York's 20th Congressional district has grown even closer. Democrat Scott Murphy has reduced Republican James Tedisco's once 12% lead to just 4 points, according to a new Siena Research Institute poll. Tedisco now leads the race 45% to 41%. Of note: "While two weeks ago, voters said Tedisco would do a better job than Murphy representing them on six issues, Murphy now leads on two of those issues, including the most important issue for 20th C.D. voters: the economy."

According to a new poll, the race to replace former Rep. Kristin Gillibrand in NY-20--appointed by Gov. Paterson to fill Hillary Clinton's vacated Senate seat--is getting tighter: "Democrat Scott Murphy has slashed into the huge lead once held by Republican Jim Tedisco in the New York special House election scheduled for March 31. . . . Tedisco, the state Assembly minority leader, holds a 7-percentage-point lead over Murphy, a 39-year-old venture capitalist, according to the late February survey by the Benenson Strategy Group. The margin was 44 to 37 percent, with Libertarian Eric Sundwall at 4 percent, and 15 percent of voters undecided.The poll was paid for by the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee. The poll was conducted Feb. 24-25, and included interviews with 400 likely voters in the Upstate New York district."

According to a new poll, NY Governor David Paterson may be in serious trouble with voters. His job approval numbers are at the lowest point in the 27 years that the Marist College Institute for Public Opinion has been surveying public opinions of governor: "Only 26% of registered voters surveyed said Mr. Paterson was doing either a good or excellent job, while 71% said he was doing a fair or poor job. Even Eliot Spitzer had a higher approval rating a year ago, 30%, when he was the governor amid his prostitution scandal. The poll results indicate that voters believe Mr. Paterson is working hard and understands the state’s problems, but suggests people do not have confidence in his ability to lead. Among Democrats, Attorney General Andrew M. Cuomo trounces Mr. Paterson in a hypothetical primary matchup, 62% to %. In a general election,Rudolph W. Giuliani would beat Mr. Paterson, 53% to 38%."

A new poll by the Siena (College) Research Institute reports that with nearly five weeks to go until the special election in the 20th C.D., Republican Assembly Minority Leader James Tedisco has a 46-34 percent lead over Democrat Scott Murphy in the race for Kristine Gillibrand's former House seat: "Tedisco scores better on six specific issues, although his lead over Murphy on five issues – including the economy, the most important issue voters want their next Member of Congress to address – is in single digits. Senator Gillibrand, who represented the district for more than two years, up until five weeks ago, enjoys strong support from voters of all parties."

According to the local TV news station, NY1, "a spokesman for former Governor George Pataki says he has met with a top Senate Republican, as rumors swirl that the party is pushing him to run for Senate. The Associated Press is reporting that during the visit, Senator John Cornyn of Texas approached Pataki about running in 2010 for the seat held by Democrat Kirsten Gillibrand. Gillibrand was appointed just last month by Governor David Paterson, after Hillary Clinton vacated the seat to be secretary of state. Pataki is working for a private law practice and has not commented on the possibility of returning to public life."

A new Quinnipiac University survey reveals that "both Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand (D-NY) and the man who appointed her, Gov. David Paterson (D) trail Democratic primary challengers in 2010. Attorney General Andrew Cuomo (D) trounces Paterson, 55% to 23%, in a possible gubernatorial primary. And Rep. Carolyn McCarthy (D-NY) beats Gillibrand in a Democratic U.S. Senate primary, 34% to 24%, with 39% still undecided. Quinnipiac observes: "The Caroline Kennedy mix-up still haunts Gov. David Paterson... Three quarters of New Yorkers heard about the nasty news leaks. They think Kennedy was treated unfairly, but most don't blame Paterson for the leaks."

A new Siena College poll finds that a majority of New York voters think Gov. David Paterson did just a fair or poor job filling the state's U.S. Senate vacancy. The polls reports that 33% of voters thought he did a fair job, while 29% thought it was poor. Only 27% said the process was good, and 6% rated it excellent. The poll is the first since the Kennedy leaks and Paterson's selection of Rep. Kirsten Gillibrand.

According to a Quinnipiac University poll, New York City voters continue to give Mayor Michael Bloomberg high marks for his performance. They are also happy to reelect him to a third term: Bloomberg holds double-digit leads over likely Democratic challengers. He's leads NYC Controller William Thompson (D), 50% to 34%, and beats Rep. Anthony Weiner (D-NY), 50% to 35%. New York voters approve of the job Bloomberg is doing by a 69% to 25% margin. In a Democratic primary, Weiner edges Thompson, 30% to 23% with 47% undecided. Another survey, by the local TV station, New York 1, suggests a closer race, however: "would win less than 50% of the vote against his two strongest Democratic opponents, a new poll says - and one of them, Rep. Anthony Weiner is 'within striking distance' of toppling the two-term incumbent . . . Bloomberg would get 43% of the vote against 36% for Weiner (D-Brooklyn-Queens). Running against Controller William Thompson, Bloomberg would win 45% to Thompson's 32%."

Has the past few months of bad pressfor New York Govenor David Paterson --culminating in the poorly handled search for Hillary Clinton's US Senate replacement--taken its toll on his reelection chances? A new Siena Research Institute poll suggests that the Democrat has his work cut out for him: Governor David Paterson's lead over Attorney General Andrew Cuomo in a potential 2010 gubernatorial primary fell from 23 points in December to just two points today. For the first time since May, Cuomo has a better favorable/unfavorable rating than Paterson: “Whether because of the prolonged Senate selection situation or on-going budget issues, voters are less inclined to support Governor Paterson for election today than they were only one month ago,” said Steven Greenberg, spokesman for the Siena New York Poll. “While the Governor's favorability rating remains strong, it is now lower than the Attorney General's, who has his highest favorability rating ever. “For the first time since he's been Governor, more people are inclined to support 'someone else' than they are to elect Paterson as Governor in 2010."

Confirming PollTrack's report yesterday, New York govenor David Psterson has selected a 42-year-old congresswoman from upstate who is known for bold political moves and centrist policy positions, to fill the United States Senate seat vacated by Hillary Clinton, according to report in the New York Times this morning based on a conversation with an aide to the governor: "The governor will announce his selection at noon in Albany. An aide to Ms. Gillibrand confirmed that she had accepted the appointment. Ms. Gillibrand is largely unknown to New Yorkers statewide, but is considered an up-and-coming and forceful lawmaker in her district and has gained considerable attention from Democratic leaders in Washington."

According to NBC News, "Rep. Kirsten Gillibrand (D-N.Y.) has emerged as the frontrunner for Hillary Clinton’s Senate seat after Caroline Kennedy dropped out of contention last night . . . Paterson had a conversation with Gillibrand Wednesday morning, [New York governor has her on his short list of contenders for the seat]. Gillibrand, a second-term congresswoman from upstate New York, has a resume that would please the Clintons. She served as a special counsel for the Department of Housing and Urban Development (under Andrew Cuomo!) in former President Clinton’s administration, and helped raise money for Hillary Clinton’s Senate campaigns in New York. Gillibrand would be a savvy political choice, as well. She has twice won election in one of the most Republican Congressional districts in New York, handily defeating her GOP opponent with 62 percent of the vote last year. She has assiduously courted the local officials in her district, almost all of whom are Republican."

The New York Post this evening reports that Caroline Kennedy "tonight withdrew her name from consideration to replace Hillary Clinton in the U S Senate after learning that Gov. David Paterson wasn't going to choose her, The Post has learned. Kennedy's decision removes the highest-profile name in the ring to step into Clinton's now-vacant seat, as she departs after getting confirmed today as President Obama's Secretary of State."

According to the New York Daily News, Democratic Governor David Paterson had made a decision concerning a replacement for US Senator Hillary Clinton who will soon be confirmed as US Secretary of State: "Sources close to Paterson say they believe Caroline Keenedy is still the front-runner - despite the fact the governor has recently been talking up Rep. Kirsten Gillibrand (D-Hudson). 'I have a good idea now which direction I want to go," said Paterson. Despite the national anticipation, Paterson said he will wait a few more days before making an announcement. 'I thought that with something this serious - that when I came to a point of view - that I wouldn't react to it immediately," he said. "I thought I would see if it feels the same way [tomorrow] ... as it did, I guess toward the end of [Monday] afternoon when I think I started to come to a point of view.' Paterson's process has left many befuddled in recent days as he has seemingly swung from one position to another."

According to the New York Post, Caroline Kennedy will be Gov. David Paterson's pick to replace outgoing US Senator Hillary Clinton. The Post reports: "Despite claims that he's still undecided, Gov. Paterson is 'certain' to pick Caroline Kennedy to replace Hillary Rodham Clinton in the US Senate, several unhappy contenders for the job have told friends and associates in recent days. The contenders based their conclusion on the view that Paterson, after nearly two months of indecision, would "greatly embarrass" and "entirely humiliate" Kennedy, anger her prominent political family and even offend President-elect Barack Obama by picking someone other than President John F. Kennedy's daughter."

A new Public Policy Polling survey reports that Caroline Kennedy’s popularity has taken a "major hit" as the result of her
public campaign to be appointed to Hillary Clinton’s Senate seat:
"44% of the state’s voters now say they have a lesser opinion of Kennedy than they did before she started vying for the position. 33% say it’s made no difference, and 23% report now having a more favorable opinion of her. A plurality of Democrats, Republicans, and independents all say that her efforts have caused them to view her less favorably. When it comes to whether they would prefer to see Kennedy or Andrew Cuomo appointed, 58% now prefer Cuomo to 27% for Kennedy." It looks like Kennedy's less than stellar debut as a political candidate--and the attendant negative press--has severely harmed her standing the the state. Still, several published reports say that she is likely to be named to the seat by NY Governor David Paterson.

According to the Associated Press, New York State officials with ties to Gov. David Paterson say the daughter of the late President John F. Kennedy will be the governor's choice to fill the New York Senate seat being vacated by Hillary Rodham Clinton. Still, Paterson cautions he's still looking.

According to a new CNN/Opinion Research poll, a majority of Americans believe that Caroline Kennedy is qualified to be a US senator. 52% percent said the daughter of President John F. Kennedy is qualified to serve; 42% said she is not qualified. According to CNN, Kennedy's numbers are "somewhat lower than for Hillary Clinton when she ran for the US Senate seat from New York. In a CNN/USA Today/Gallup survey, more than 60 percent of Americans said the former first lady was qualified." There is a gender gap in these results, as well: 57% of women believing Kennedy is qualified; only 47% of men agree, with 46% of male respondents saying Kennedy is not qualified. PollTrack wonders if these numbers will begin to shift way from Kennedy, possibly reflecting the increasingly negative reporting on her effort to replace Hillary Clinton as New York's junior senator, the growing chorus of state Democrats who question or reject her candidacy, and Kennedy's relatively poor communication with voters and her recent string of political missteps and blunders.

According to a new Quinnipiac University Poll, New York State voters split 40% to 41% on whether Caroline Kennedy is qualified to be a U.S. Senator, "but they expect by a 48% to 25% margin that Gov. David Paterson will name her to the Senate seat being vacated by Hillary Clinton, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today. Offered a choice, 33% of voters say Gov. Paterson should name Ms. Kennedy, while 29% say Attorney General Andrew Cuomo should get the nod. Another 4% pick Albany-area U.S. Rep. Kirsten Gillibrand, while 24% want someone else and 10% are undecided . . . Kennedy leads Cuomo 42% to 27% among New York City voters and ties Cuomo 30% to 30% among suburban voters, while Cuomo leads 31% to 27% among upstate voters. Men back Kennedy over Cuomo 32% to 27% while women back her 33% to 31%. Republicans prefer Cuomo 33% to 20% while Democrats back Kennedy 41% to 27% and independent voters back Cuomo 33% to 30%."

According to a new national survey, voters are skeptical of the idea of Caroline Kennedy replacing Hillary Clinton in the US Senate: Only 37% believe Caroline Kennedy is qualified to be in the U.S. Senate and only "16% say she would be considered as Hillary Clinton’s replacement if her last name wasn’t Kennedy." 67% have a favorable view of Kennedy; 23% have an unfavorable opinion. 37% say Kennedy is not qualified to serve in the Senate, with 26% undecided.PollTrack cautions that this is a national survey. The numbers for New York State voters vary depending upon the survey.

Two just released polls have contradictory results on the question of who should replace Democratic New York Junior Senator Hillary Clinton: According to a Siena College Poll, 26% say Gov. David Paterson should choose Attorney General Andrew Cuomo; 23% say Caroline  Kennedy. Limited just to Democrats, Cuomo was favored by 30 percent to 28 percent. According to Siena College, Cuomo leads in every region of the state. Kennedy leads among black and Latino voters and they tied among younger voters. A Public Policy Polling survey reports Kennedy as the top choice of Democrats by 44% to 23%. The margin was narrower upstate, where Kennedy leads 36% to 22%. She leads 45% to 25% in New York City; her strongest support in the suburbs where, with a 57% to 24% advantage over Cuomo.

Caroline Kennedy has decided to pursue" the U.S. Senate seat being vacated by Sen. Hillary Clinton, according to the New York Times:  "The decision came after a series of deeply personal and political conversations, in which Ms. Kennedy, who friends describe as unflashy but determined, wrestled with whether to give up what has been a lifetime of avoiding the spotlight . . . Ms. Kennedy has been making calls this morning to alert political figures to her interest... She has also hired Knickerbocker SKD, a prominent political consulting firm headed by Josh Isay, a former chief of staff to Sen. Charles Schumer, to advise her."

A new Public Policy Polling survey suggests that Caroline Kennedy has the inside track with New York state voters to replace Hillary Clinton in the US Senate: "44% say she’s their top choice, with another 24% saying she’s their second choice from a list of potential candidates. The only other potential appointee to break double figures is Attorney General Andrew Cuomo, who was the top pick for 23% of respondents and the second with 35%. The other six candidates polled, including four members of Congress
and two prominent local government officials, were the favored choice with anywhere from 3 to 6% of those surveyed." But a just released Marist poll would appear to contradict these numbers, indicating a tie between Cuomo and Kennedy--25% to 25%--with 26% undecided and another 24% going to other candidates.

How game is Caroline Kennedy for a nearly endless stream of campaigning across the geographically diverse and enormous expanse of New York state? If she becomes New York's next US Senator--via appointed by Democratic Govener David Paterson--she would have to do just that. She would need to win election outright in 2010 to serve the remainder of Hillary Clinton's unexpired term. Then, she'd have to run again in 2012 . . . for reelection. The notoriously private Kennedy may find the prospect of nonstop campaigning a daunting, if not impossible task. Thus a report out yesterday in the New York Post: "The odds of Gov. Paterson choosing Caroline Kennedy . . .  are no better than 20-1, a source close to the governor said yesterday. The source was responding to news that Sen. Ted Kennedy, Robert F. Kennedy Jr. and other family members have been pushing hard for Caroline to replace Clinton. 'It looks to me like [Caroline's cousin] Bobby Kennedy may be trying to push Caroline more than Caroline is pushing herself," a Paterson administration source told The Post.'" Stay tuned. 

ABC News reports that NY Governer David Patterson may have a surprise in store for state residents: Coroline Kennedy as its Junior Us Senastor: "Another Senator Kennedy?  The crazy speculation about Hillary Clinton's Senate seat may not be so crazy after all.  A Democrat who would know tells ABC News that New York governor David Paterson has talked to Caroline Kennedy about taking the seat, which was once held by her uncle, Robert F. Kennedy.  It’s not exactly shocking that Paterson would reach out to one of the most highly respected public figures in New York, but this is:  Sources say Kennedy is considering it, and has not ruled out coming to Washington to replace Hillary Clinton in the Senate."

Who will replace Democrat Hillary Clinton as New York's junior senator? As per MSNBC, the list is short but impressive: "Several names have been floated, including state Attorney General Andrew Cuomo, son of former popular Gov. Mario Cuomo, Nassau County Executive Tom Suozzi, U.S. Reps. Kirsten Gillibrand, Brian Higgins, Nydia Velazquez, Jerrold Nadler, Nita Lowey (who reportedly wants to stay in the House), Steve Israel, Gregory Meeks and Louise Slaughter, Buffalo Mayor Byron Brown (the city's first black mayor) and Bronx Borough President Adolfo Carrión Jr. Even NYC Mayor Mike Bloomberg's and Caroline Kennedy's names have been thrown out there." Interestingly, Lowey was the front runner for the seat back in 2000, but gave up her chance at the senate once Hillary Clinton threw her hat into the ring. Public opinion polls indicate that most New York voters favor Cuomo as Clinton's replacement by a substantial margin. Appointing Cuomo may actually provide current Democratic Governor David Patteron with a real political advantage: Cuomo was rumored to be ready to oppose him in 2010. If appointed, Cuomo would instead run for the remainder of Clinton's term (her seat is up in 2012) in 2010. Clinton has given no indication that she plans to resign soon, and will most probably give up her seat upon Senate confirmation as US Secretary of State. CNN also puts to rest a rumor that been swirling around the past few days: Bill Clinton "has no interest in replacing his wife in the U.S. Senate," according to his spokesman, "adding any speculation that he would be interested is 'completely false.'"

A Quinnipiac survey released today has mostly good news for New York mayor Michael Bloomberg: City voters approve 66% to 27% of the job Mayor Michael Bloomberg is doing, down from a record high 75% to 20% in October. The mayor's approval rating has remained above the 70% for more than two years. In head-to-head match ups for next year's race, Bloomberg leads New York City Comptroller William Thompson by a margin of 49% to 34%, and beats Rep. Anthony Weiner (D-NY), 50% to 34%. That Bloomberg barely touches the 50% mark suggests that his reelection is not a foregone conclusion.

According to a poll released this morning by the New York Daily News, Republican Rudolph Giuliani is gaining on incumbent Democratic Governer David Patterson, who succeeded Eliot Spitzer earlier this year. In the hypothetical match up, the Republican "leads Paterson handily among Republicans (70% to 22%), independents (54% to 37%), suburbanites (58% to 35%) and Catholics. Paterson leads strongly among Democrats (70% to 24%), in New York City (63% to 30%), women (52% to 41%) and among blacks, Latinos, and Protestants. The two are running neck and neck among males, upstaters, and Jews."

The New York City Term Limits Debate:  PollTrack will be actively covering a number of local races and referendums next year, including the New York City mayoral and other citywide elections. The New York City Council is due to vote on Thursday on a move to allow Mayor Michael Bloomberg to run for a third term despite a poll showing that 89 percent of voters say a referendum should decide the issue. The term limits debate revolves around three issues: whether term limits should be extended one additional term (to three), whether the original law, affirmed by voters in two separate elections in the 1990s, can be emended legislatively, and whether the present mayor should run for a third term. A newly released Reuters article provides excellent background and on the ground reporting on the "term limits" debate.