Presidential Race Maps Writing on the Wall

Latest Polls In Close US Senate Races

Posted Oct 13, 2010 at 1:22 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

Here's a recap of the latest polls in some of the most competitive US Senate races:


ALASKA: DailyKos/Public Policy Polling Republican Joe Miller just edges write-in hopeful and incumbent GOP US Senator Lisa Murkowski, 35% to 33%. Democrat Scott McAdams is at 26%.

CONNECTICUT: Fox News Democrat Richard Blumenthal leads Republican Linda McMahon, 49% to 43%.

DELAWARE: Monmouth University Democrat Chris Coons holds a huge lead over Republican Christine O'Donnell, 57% to 38%.

ILLINOIS: Rasmussen Democrat Alexi Giannoulias leads GOP Rep. Mark Kirk, 44% to 43%, with Green Party candidate LeAlan Jones polling at 4%.

NEVADA: Fox News Republican Sharon Angle leads Sen. Harry Reid, 49% to 47%. Public Policy Polling Democrat Reid edges Republican Angle, 49% to 48%.

NEW HAMPSHIRE: Rasmussen Republican Kelly Ayotte is ahead of Democratic US Rep. Paul Hodes, 51% to 44%.

NORTH CAROLINA: High Point University Republican Sen. Richard Burr leads Democrat Elaine Marshall, 45% to 31%.

WASHINGTON: Elway Democratic Sen. Patty Murray leads Republican Dino Rossi, 51% to 38%. Fox News Republican  Rossi just edges Democrat Murray, 47% to 46%.

WISCONSIN Rasmussen Republican Ron Johnson leads Russ Feingold, 52% to 45%. Reuters/Ipsos Johnson leads Feingold, 51% to 44%.

WEST VIRGINIA: Public Policy Polling Democrat Joe Manchin has now reclaimed the lead from Republican John Raese, 48% to 45%.

NC US Senate: Too Close To Call?

Posted Jun 29, 2010 at 12:47 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

After demonstrating considerable strength in his reelection race, incumbent North Carolina U.S. Senator Richard Burr now finds himself in a virtual tied with his Democratic challenger, Elaine Marshall, according to a new  Rasmussen poll Burr leads Marshall by just one point, 44% to 43%. A SurveyUSA poll, on the other hand, shows Burr with a comfortable +10% lead over Marshall, 50% to 40%. PollTrack continues to give the edge to Burr.


PollTrack Rates The Race Leans Republican

NC US Senate: Incumbent Republican Showing Surprising Strength

Posted Feb 10, 2010 at 3:16 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

According to PollTrack's first read of the 2010 US Senate Race in North Carlina, incumbent Republican Richard Burr is showing surprising strength after a rocky year. PollTrack First Call: Leans Republican

Do Democrats Have An Opening In 2010 NC Senate Race?

Posted Jun 18, 2009 at 2:37 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

In a state that is trending slightly Democratic these days--Obama won it in 2008--the Democrats may have an edge in the 2010 US Senate Race. Public Policy Polling reports that a mere 29% of North Carolina voters think incumbent Republican senator Richard Burr deserves another term, "with 49% saying it’s time to give someone else a chance . . . 22% are unsure. Even among Republican voters just 49% say Burr deserves another term. 34% of independents and 11% for Democrats do. These numbers reflect one aspect of Burr’s precarious position that has not gotten a lot of play, which is that even voters in his own party are not that enthused about him, something that could pose a problem in turning out GOP voters with this race at the top of the ticket next year. Tested against a generic Democratic candidate, Burr trails 41-38. One thing he does have working in his favor is a 39-32 lead with independents, but he’s not showing the level of crossover support at this point that he would need to get reelected.

Republican Burr Looking Vulnerable in 2010 NC Senate Race

Posted Apr 02, 2009 at 1:51 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

The Republican incumbent US Senator in North Carolina, Richard Burr, is looking vulnerable in his 2010 reelection effort. According to a recent poll by Public Policy Polling, "Burr continues to have approval ratings worse than Elizabeth Dole’s at the same point in the election cycle two years ago as he prepares to run for reelection in 2010, the newest survey from Public Policy Polling finds. 35% of voters in the state approve of the job Burr is doing, with 32% disapproving. Dole’s numbers were 43%/31% around this time in 2007. Burr leads Secretary of State Elaine Marshall 43%-35% in a hypothetical contest. Dole led Marshall 46%-35% during the period Democrats were recruiting a candidate two years ago. Even after more than ten years in statewide office and a 2002 Senate campaign, more than half of the voters in the state don’t hold any opinion about Elaine Marshall in an either positive or negative direction. 28% of voters have a positive view of her, 19% a negative one, and 53% have no opinion. Tested against a generic Democratic candidate, Burr leads 42-38. That number is somewhat misleading though as 22% of Democrats, unsure who their nominee will be, say they are undecided while only 12% of Republicans report the same."

A recent poll by conservative-leaning think tank Civitas Institute conducted March 16 to 19 "confirmed what many others have found - Burr continues to struggle with name recognition. Fifty percent of registered voters told Civitas they either has no opinion or were unaware of the first-term Republican senator. That is down from 54% when Civitas asked the same question in January. Thirty-seven percent held a favorable opinion of Burr in the most recent poll, which held steady from January. The Civitas poll also showed Burr trailing Democratic Attorney General Roy Cooper 41% to 38% in a hypothetical match-up."

PollTrack makes one observation: with a very popular Barack Obama at the head of the ticket in 2008, Democratic voter groups turned out in very healthy numbers. With Obama not a factor on the 2010 ballot, will Democrats turn out with the same intensity?

US Senate 2010: Incumbent NC Republican Vulnerable

Posted Dec 11, 2008 at 12:56 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

According to a new Public Policy Polling survey of registered voters in North Carolina, Republican incumbent US Senator Richard Burr is quite vulnerable in his reelection quest in 2010. In a hypothetical matchup with Democratic Attorney General Roy Cooper, Cooper leads Burr by a margin of 39% to 34%. The survey continues: "44% of the state’s voters approve of Cooper’s job performance with just 23% disapproving. Burr gets a 32% approval mark with 31% unhappy with his work as a Senator . . . This poll confirms what many people already thought: Roy Cooper is the strongest
potential Democratic opponent for Richard Burr in 2010,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “He is just as well known statewide as the incumbent Senator, and better liked. He would be quite a formidable candidate.”

Early Voting Unprecedented In The South

Posted Oct 23, 2008 at 8:49 AM
PollTrack Election Watch

Early Voting Unprecedented In The South: A record number of early voters have turned up in a number of southern states. In Georgia, early voting is double what it had been at this point in 2004. As of Wednesday, some 825,000 had cast their ballots, about 15 percent of Georgia's registered voters. In Florida, about 150,000 people casts votes this Monday and Tuesday alone. And in North Carolina more than 500,000 voters have already cast ballots. And while African-African early voting is at 2004 levels in some states (such as Ohio), it's record breaking thus far in NC and GA. Click here for the Associated Press coverage of the dramatic increase in early voting in the south.