Presidential Race Maps Writing on the Wall

FINAL 2012 US SENATE RACE CHART 54 DEM 0-TCTC 46 REP

Posted Nov 05, 2012 at 5:34 PM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

2012 US SENATE RACE CHART

55 DEM       0
-TCTC        45 REP



SAFE DEMOCRATIC

CA, DE, ME, MD, MN, NJ, NY, PA, RI, WA, VT, WV

LEANING DEMOCRATIC

CT: Murphy (D) vs McMahon (R)

FL: Nelson (D) vs McGillicuddy (R)

HI: Hirono (D) vs Lingle (R)

IN: Donnelly (D) vs Murdock (R)


MI: Stebenow (D) vs Hoekstra (R)

MA: Warren (D) vs Brown (R

MO: McGaskill (D) vs Akin (R)
MT : Tester (D) vs Rehberg (R)

NM: Heinrich (D) vs Wilson (R)
OH
: Brown (D) vs Mandel (R)

VA: Kaine (D) vs Allen (R)

WI: Baldwin (D) vs Thompson (R)

LEANING REPUBLICAN

AZ: Carmona (D) vs Flake (R)

ND : Heitkamp (D) vs Berg (R)

NE: Kerry (D) vs Deb Fischer (R)

NV: Berkley (D) vs Heller (R)


SAFE REPUBLICAN

MS,  TN, TX, UT, WY

2012 US SENATE RACE CHART 54 DEM 1-TCTC 45 REP

Posted Nov 05, 2012 at 11:16 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

2012 US SENATE RACE CHART

54 DEM       1
-TCTC        45 REP



SAFE DEMOCRATIC

CA, DE, ME, MD, MN, NJ, NY, PA, RI, WA, VT, WV

LEANING DEMOCRATIC

CT: Murphy (D) vs McMahon (R)

FL: Nelson (D) vs McGillicuddy (R)

HI: Hirono (D) vs Lingle (R)

IN: Donnelly (D) vs Murdock (R)


MI: Stebenow (D) vs Hoekstra (R)

MA: Warren (D) vs Brown (R

MO: McGaskill (D) vs Akin (R)

NM: Heinrich (D) vs Wilson (R)
OH
: Brown (D) vs Mandel (R)

VA: Kaine (D) vs Allen (R)

WI: Baldwin (D) vs Thompson (R)

 

TOO-CLOSE-TO-CALL


MT : Tester (D) vs Rehberg (R)

 

LEANING REPUBLICAN

AZ: Carmona (D) vs Flake (R)

ND : Heitkamp (D) vs Berg (R)

NE: Kerry (D) vs Deb Fischer (R)

NV: Berkley (D) vs Heller (R)


SAFE REPUBLICAN

MS,  TN, TX, UT, WY

2012 US SENATE RACE CHART 53 DEM 2-TCTC 45 REP

Posted Nov 04, 2012 at 1:04 PM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

2012 US SENATE RACE CHART

53 DEM       2
-TCTC        45 REP



SAFE DEMOCRATIC

CA, DE, ME, MD, MN, NJ, NY, PA, RI, WA, VT, WV

LEANING DEMOCRATIC

CT: Murphy (D) vs McMahon (R)

FL: Nelson (D) vs McGillicuddy (R)

HI: Hirono (D) vs Lingle (R)

IN: Donnelly (D) vs Murdock (R)

MI: Stebenow (D) vs Hoekstra (R)

MA: Warren (D) vs Brown (R

MO: McGaskill (D) vs Akin (R)

NM: Heinrich (D) vs Wilson (R)
OH
: Brown (D) vs Mandel (R)

WI: Baldwin (D) vs Thompson (R)

 

TOO-CLOSE-TO-CALL

 



MT : Tester (D) vs Rehberg (R)

VA: Kaine (D) vs Allen (R)

 

LEANING REPUBLICAN

AZ: Carmona (D) vs Flake (R)

ND : Heitkamp (D) vs Berg (R)

NE: Kerry (D) vs Deb Fischer (R)

NV: Berkley (D) vs Heller (R)




SAFE REPUBLICAN

MS,  TN, TX, UT, WY

Ohio Governor: GOP

Posted Nov 02, 2010 at 4:02 PM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

The Ohio Governor's race has been called for Republican Kasich.

Ohio US Senate Seat Stays in the GOP Column

Posted Nov 02, 2010 at 11:32 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

Ohio goes to Rob Portman, the Republican US Senate candidate. Seat remains GOP. But does his wide margin of victory bode poor for incumbent Democratic Governor Strickland's reelection chances. That race appears closer, with GOP challenger Kasich leading in the polls going into Election Day.

Ohio Governor 2010: Dramatic Movement

Posted Sep 28, 2010 at 3:36 PM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

The political fortunes of one Democratic governor--Ted Strickland of Ohio--appears to reversing for the better. Three new polls show him within striking distance of his GOP opponent, John Kasich: Reuters/Ipsos poll shows the race virtually tied, with Kasich leading Strick among likely voters, 47% to 46% (the Republican held a +9% advantage in August). A new Fox News poll also shows a tight race, with leading by a scant +2%--45% to 43%. And a just released New York Times/CBS News poll shows Kasich with a 43% to 42% lead. Stay tuned.

Ohio Governor 2010: Leans Republican

Posted Sep 28, 2010 at 2:11 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

According to a new poll, the Democrat has fallen even further behind in the U.S. Senate race in Ohio:a Cincinnati Enquirer/Ohio Newspaper Poll of likely voters finds Republican Rob Portman with a substantial +15% over Democrat Lee Fisher, 55% to 40%.

PollTrack Rates This Race Leans Republican

Ohio Governor 2010: Leaning Red

Posted Sep 08, 2010 at 1:25 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

A new Columbus Dispatch poll in Ohio reports that Republican John Kasich leads incumbent Democratic Gov. Ted Strickland by a commanding +12% in the race for governor, 49% to 37%.

 

PollTrack Rates The Race Leans Republican

Ohio US Senate 2010: Leaning Red

Posted Sep 07, 2010 at 1:24 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

A just released Public Policy Polling survey in the Ohio U.S. Senate race reports that Republican Rob Portman has a +7% lead among likely voters over Lee Fisher, 45% to 38%. A Columbus Dispatch poll in Ohio reports that Portman leads Fisher by a whopping 13 points, 50% to 37%.

PollTrack Rates The Race Leans Republican

Ohio Governor 2010: New Poll Shows Republican Ahead

Posted Jul 08, 2010 at 1:32 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

In the race for Ohio Governor, the latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey reports that Republican John Kasich holds a +7% lead over incumbent Democrat Ted Strickland, 47% to 40%. 3% of likely voters prefer another candidate, and 10% are undecided.

 

PollTrack Rates The Race Too-Close-To-Call

Ohio US Senate 2010: Deadlocked

Posted Jul 01, 2010 at 1:03 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

A new Quinnipiac poll in Ohio reports that the race for U.S. Senate is virtually deadlocked. Democrat Lee Fisher leads Republican Rob Portman by a slim +2% lead, 42% to 40%, with 17% undecided.

PollTrack Rates The Race Too Close To Call.

Ohio Governor 2010: Too Close To Call

Posted Jun 30, 2010 at 1:00 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

A Quinnipiac survey in Ohio reports a small lead for incumbent Democratic Gov. Ted Strickland over Republican challenger John Kasich, 43% to 38%. Another, contradictory, poll by Public Policy Polling survey shows Kasich with a small lead, 43% to 41%.

 

PollTrack Rates The Race Too Close To Call.

Ohio US Senate 2010: Deadlocked

Posted Jun 11, 2010 at 2:00 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

A just released Rasmussen survey in Ohio reports that the Republican and Democratic candidates for U.S. Senate--Rob Portman and Lee Fisher, respectively--are deadlocked at 43% each.

Ohio US Senate 2010: Too Close To Call

Posted May 10, 2010 at 1:42 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

With the respective nominees now decided in Ohio's U.S. Senate race, a new Rasmussen poll reports that Democrat Lee Fisher inches past Republican Rob Portman, 43% to 42%.

 

PollTrack rates the race too-close-to-call.

Ohio US Senate 2010: Poll Shows Fisher Way Ahead In Democratic Primary

Posted May 03, 2010 at 1:27 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

It looks like the Democrats are honing in on a candidate to challenge Republican Rob Portman in the U. S. Senate race in November. A new Suffolk University poll shows Lee Fisher trouncing Jennifer Brunner in this week's Democratic primary race, 55% to 27%. These numbers are consistent with a spate of new polls that show Fisher well head in the race to challenge Portman, who is unopposed for the Republican nomination, in the general election.

Ohio US Senate 2010: Poll Shows Democrats Ahead, Barely

Posted Apr 13, 2010 at 1:35 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

In the Democratic primary for US Senate in Ohio, A new DailyKos/Research 2000 poll reports that Lee Fisher leads Jennifer Brunner, 35% to 26%, with a whopping 39% still undecided. In the general election the poll shows Democrat Fisher leading Republican Rob Portman, 43% to 39%; Brunner leads by an even smaller margin, 41% to 40%. With the leads statistically insignificant--and the undecided number high--PollTrack continues to rate the race too close to call.

Ohio Governor 2010: New Poll Shows Democrat Ahead

Posted Apr 12, 2010 at 2:12 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

A new DailyKos/Research 2000 survey in Ohio reports that incumbent Gov. Ted Strickland is ahead of his presumptive challenger Republican John Kasich in the race for governor, 45% to 40%, with 15% still undecided. With the race statistically close--and the undecided number high--PollTrack continues to rate the race too close to call.

Are Democrats Gaining In Ohio?

Posted Apr 01, 2010 at 1:56 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

Are Democrats gaining in Ohio? A new Quinnipiac poll suggests that the answer may be yes. The survey finds that Democrats now lead in both the U.S. Senate and Governor's races. In hypothetical match ups in the Senate race, Democratic Lt. Gov. Lee Fisher leads Republican Rob Portman, 41% to 37%; Democratic Secretary of State Jennifer Brunner also edges Portman, albeit by a single point, 38% to 37%, a +6% gain over Quinnipiac's February poll. In the gubernatorial race, incumbent Democrat Ted Strickland leads Republican challenger John Kasich by +5%--43% to 38%.

US Senate 2010: Examining The Toss Up Races--Ohio

Posted Mar 23, 2010 at 12:59 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

This week, Polltrack looks at races it rates as a Toss Up for 2010 US Senate.

Here is the poll average for OHIO:

Portman (R) 44.0 % to Fischer (D) 39.0%.

In this hypothetical match up (including only the respective leaders in their party's upcoming primaries), PollTrack believes that neither party leads in this key bellwether state. Many voters remain undecided.

OH US Senate 2010: No Clear Leader, But Republican Slightly Ahead

Posted Mar 10, 2010 at 12:13 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

A new survey reports that there is no clear leader in the 2010 Ohio US Senate race: "None of the top contenders  . . . are gaining ground at this point, with Republican Rob Portman still holding a modest lead. The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of likely voters in the state finds Portman leading Lieutenant Governor Lee Fisher 44% to 39% . . . Portman holds a 43% to 37% lead over Secretary of State Jennifer Brunner, and this, too, is little changed from the previous survey. Six percent (6%) opt for another candidate, with 15% more undecided."

PollTrack Projection: Too Close To Call

OH US Senate 2010: No Clear Leader

Posted Feb 22, 2010 at 1:40 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

In hypothetical match ups in the Ohio US Senate race--against Democrats Lee Fischer and Jennifer Brunner--Republican Rob Portman leads by +4% on average. Still, PollTrack rates the race too-close-to-call.

PollTrack Early Read--Ohio US Senate: Toss-Up

OH US Senate 2010: No Clear Leader

Posted Feb 12, 2010 at 3:16 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

According to PollTrack's first read of the 2010 US Senate Race for Ohio's open seat, neither party has an edge in this key swing state. PollTrack First Call: Toss Up.

Is Ohio Trending Republican?

Posted Jan 22, 2010 at 1:36 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

Is Ohio--one of a handful of key bellwether states--trending Republican? A new Wenzel Strategies poll suggests that the answer may be yes. In the November's race for governor, Republican John Kasich leads incumbent Democratic Gov. Ted Strickland, 43% to 33%. In the U.S. Senate race, Republican Rob Portman bests Democrat Lee Fischer, 37% to 31%, and leads Democrat Jennifer Brunner (D), 40% to 35%.

Ohio Governor: Are Democrats Loosing A Key Swing State?

Posted Dec 14, 2009 at 1:34 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

Are Democrats about to loose the highest office in one of the nation's most important swing states, Ohio? The answer, at this early stage, could be yes: "Unemployment in Ohio has jumped to 10.5%, the state is wrestling with an $851 million budget shortfall, and Governor Ted Strickland has proposed delaying a tax cut approved in 2005. Add it all together, and it’s a tough environment for the incumbent Democratic governor who now trails his expected general election opponent by nine percentage points in an early look at the 2010 race." In the poll, Republican John Kasich gets 48% of the vote while Strickland picks up just 39%. Three percent (3%) say they’d prefer a third-party candidate, and 11% are not sure who they would vote for. In September, the two men were essentially even.

Democratic Brand Suffering In Ohio

Posted Nov 17, 2009 at 1:54 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

What a difference a year can make in politics. A new Quinnipiac University poll suggests that the Democratic brand--and President Obama--are both suffering a decline in overall support in the key swing state of Ohio: The poll indicates a shift toward the Republicans, exemplified by President Obama's disapproval rating in the (50%) which is now higher than his approval rating (45%). And Republican Bob Portman, a former House member from the Cincinnati area and the party-endorsed candidate for the Senate, now holds slight leads--of +3% and +4% respectively--over Democrats Lee Fisher, the lieutenant governor, and Jennifer Brunner, the Ohio secretary of state. Given the bellwether status of the state, these numbers could signal problems ahead for the Democrats, both in locally and nationally.

Ohio 2010: Next Year's Senate Race Looks Tight

Posted Sep 30, 2009 at 1:47 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

Acording to a Rasmussen survey, things are looking very tight in next year's US Senate race in Ohio: "Next year’s U.S. Senate race in Ohio is a neck-and-neck battle for Republican Rob Portman no matter which Democratic candidate he faces, according to the first Rasmussen Reports Election 2010 survey in the state. Portman is in a virtual tie with Lieutenant Governor Lee Fisher 41% to 40%. Six percent (6%) of Ohio voters favor some other candidate, and 14% are undecided. The former GOP congressman is also essentially even with Ohio Secretary of State Jennifer Brunner, leading by a similarly insignificant 40% to 38% margin. Five percent (5%) prefer another candidate. Eighteen percent (18%) are not sure how they will vote in this race."

Democrats Appear To Recover in Ohio 2010

Posted Sep 17, 2009 at 1:10 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

While the Democratic brand has taken a bit of a beating in Ohio recently--the President's approval rating in the state is lower than the national average--the party's candidates for Senator in 2010 seem to have picked up steam: A new Quinnipiac poll reports a improvement for Democrats since their lackluster numbers this summer. The respective primaries of the two parties are as follows: [1] Democratic primary for the U.S. Senate: Lt. Gov. Lee Fisher has a 26% to 17% lead over Secretary of State Jennifer Brunner (D), with 55% still undecided. [2] In the GOP primary, former Rep. Rob Portman (R) leads businessman Tom Ganley (R), 27% to 9%, with 61% still undecided. In the general election, Democrat Fisher tops Portman, 42% to 31%, and beats Ganley 41% to 29%. Brunner tops Portman, 39% to 34%, and beats Ganley 39% to 31%.

Ohio: Democrats Have Slight Edge in Key 2010 Statewide Races

Posted Jul 14, 2009 at 1:37 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

According to a new DailyKos/Research 2000 poll on the 2010 election cycle in Ohio reports that if the election were held now, Democratic Gov. Ted Strickland would lead Republican John Kasich in the gubernatorial race, 44% to 39%. In the U.S. Senate race, the Democratic primary is unclear, with no real leader and the lion's share of voters undecided at this early stage: Democrat Lee Fisher leads Jennifer Brunner 22% to 17%. Significantly, both Democrats edge presumptive Republican nominee Rob Portman in a hypothetical general election match up. Fisher leads, 42% to 35%, and Brunner leads, 40% to 36%.

New Jersey: Is The National Economy Hurting Corzine In His Rellection Quest?

Posted Jul 13, 2009 at 1:57 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

One serious problem facing incumbent New Jersey Democratic Governor Jon Corzine in his 2009 reelection race according to Rasmussen Reports: a growing sense in the state that the nation is falling further into economic disarray: Just 4% of New Jersey voters rate the economy as good or excellent while 65% say it's in poor shape. 23% say things are getting better, but 47% say they are getting worse. PollTrack has noted this same phenomena in other states where the economy is suffering and incumbent Democratic governors now in trouble, including the key swing states of Virginia (a race that will also be decided this November) and Ohio.

Ohio Democratic Governor May Be In Trouble in 2010 Reelection Bid

Posted Jul 10, 2009 at 1:17 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

A Quinnipiac University survey suggests that incumbent Democratic Governor Ted strickland of Ohio may be in trouble with votes: "His approval rating--at 46% positive, 42% negative, is down considerably from the 57% to 29% rating he received in the organization's May 6 survey. "This is Gov. Strickland's lowest approval rating since a 45 - 12 score, with 43 percent undecided, February 1, 2007, one month after he took office.  Voters give Gov. Strickland two big thumbs down, disapproving 53 - 33% of the way he is handling the economy and disapproving 53 - 32% of the way he is handling the state budget. Voters also feel 40 - 34%that Gov. Strickland has not kept his campaign promises. These are Strickland's lowest scores on these three measures. U.S. Sen. Mike DeWine, a possible Republican challenger in the 2010 Governor's race, has caught up with the struggling Strickland, with 40% to the Governor's 41%, compared to a 48 - 36% Strickland lead May 6. Another challenger, former Congressman John Kasich, trails Strickland 43 - 38 percent, compared to 51 - 32 percent May 6.

Ohio Democratic Governor Less Popular

Posted Jun 30, 2009 at 2:05 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

A Public Policy Polling survey out of Ohio indicates that incumbent Democratic Governor Ted Strickland's approval rating has declined to 43%. In a hypothetic 2010 general election match up, he leads Republican John Kasich by just two points, 44% to 42%. PPP continues: "Strickland has seen a decline in popularity among both Democrats and Republicans. Where previously 70% of voters within his party gave him good marks, now just 62% do. And the percentage of Republicans disapproving of him has increased from 59% to 72%. His numbers with independents are relatively steady."

Democrats Ahead In Ohio 2010 US Senate Race

Posted Jun 24, 2009 at 1:35 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

A new Public Policy Polling survey suggests that both potential Democratic nominees in Ohio's 2010 US Senate race would defeat their Republican rival in a hypothetical match up in the race to succeeded retiring GOP Sen. George Voinovich: Lee Fisher leads Rob Portman, 41% to 32%; Jennifer Brunner holds a similar 40% to 32% advantage over Portman. PPP continues: "Anyone trying to figure out whether Brunner or Fisher would make a stronger general election candidate or which has a leg up in the primary will not find it from this poll, as their numbers are nearly identical across the board."

Ohio US Senate: Democrats Look Good For 2010

Posted Mar 23, 2009 at 2:15 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

According to a new Quinnipiac University survey, the race for the Democratic nomination to seek the Ohio seat of retiring Republican Sen. George Voinovich is "a wide-open affair" while, on the GOP side, former Rep. Rob Portman holds a significant lead: "In general election match-ups, the Democrats come out ahead of the Republicans." For the Democrats, Lt. Gov. Lee Fisher leads at 18%, followed by Secretary of State Jennifer Brunner at 14% and Rep. Tim Ryan at 12%. As for the Republicans, Portman leads State Auditor Mary Taylor 31% to 14% with 52% undecided. The general election match-ups: Fisher leads Portman 41% to 33% with 24% undecided and Taylor by 41% to 31% with 25% undecided. Brunner bests Portman 39% to 34% with 25% undecided and Taylor by 38% to 31% with 28% undecided.

Us Senate 2010: George Voinovich (R-OH) Faces Tough Reelection Battle

Posted Dec 10, 2008 at 7:10 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

In a sign that 2010 will not be easy for Republican incumbents, a new Quinnipiac poll reports that two-term Republican U.S. Sen. George Voinovich faces a tough reelection fight in 2010, with 36 percent wanting to give him another term and 35 percent backing an unnamed Democratic candidate, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today . . . Voinovich, who has been a fixture in Ohio politics since winning the first of two terms as Governor in 1990, would have a potentially more difficult challenge for a third term in the U.S. Senate in 2010. Only 44 percent of voters, including a lukewarm 54 percent of Republicans, say he deserves to be reelected.