Presidential Race Maps Writing on the Wall

FINAL 2012 US SENATE RACE CHART 54 DEM 0-TCTC 46 REP

Posted Nov 05, 2012 at 5:34 PM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

2012 US SENATE RACE CHART

55 DEM       0
-TCTC        45 REP



SAFE DEMOCRATIC

CA, DE, ME, MD, MN, NJ, NY, PA, RI, WA, VT, WV

LEANING DEMOCRATIC

CT: Murphy (D) vs McMahon (R)

FL: Nelson (D) vs McGillicuddy (R)

HI: Hirono (D) vs Lingle (R)

IN: Donnelly (D) vs Murdock (R)


MI: Stebenow (D) vs Hoekstra (R)

MA: Warren (D) vs Brown (R

MO: McGaskill (D) vs Akin (R)
MT : Tester (D) vs Rehberg (R)

NM: Heinrich (D) vs Wilson (R)
OH
: Brown (D) vs Mandel (R)

VA: Kaine (D) vs Allen (R)

WI: Baldwin (D) vs Thompson (R)

LEANING REPUBLICAN

AZ: Carmona (D) vs Flake (R)

ND : Heitkamp (D) vs Berg (R)

NE: Kerry (D) vs Deb Fischer (R)

NV: Berkley (D) vs Heller (R)


SAFE REPUBLICAN

MS,  TN, TX, UT, WY

2012 US SENATE RACE CHART 54 DEM 1-TCTC 45 REP

Posted Nov 05, 2012 at 11:16 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

2012 US SENATE RACE CHART

54 DEM       1
-TCTC        45 REP



SAFE DEMOCRATIC

CA, DE, ME, MD, MN, NJ, NY, PA, RI, WA, VT, WV

LEANING DEMOCRATIC

CT: Murphy (D) vs McMahon (R)

FL: Nelson (D) vs McGillicuddy (R)

HI: Hirono (D) vs Lingle (R)

IN: Donnelly (D) vs Murdock (R)


MI: Stebenow (D) vs Hoekstra (R)

MA: Warren (D) vs Brown (R

MO: McGaskill (D) vs Akin (R)

NM: Heinrich (D) vs Wilson (R)
OH
: Brown (D) vs Mandel (R)

VA: Kaine (D) vs Allen (R)

WI: Baldwin (D) vs Thompson (R)

 

TOO-CLOSE-TO-CALL


MT : Tester (D) vs Rehberg (R)

 

LEANING REPUBLICAN

AZ: Carmona (D) vs Flake (R)

ND : Heitkamp (D) vs Berg (R)

NE: Kerry (D) vs Deb Fischer (R)

NV: Berkley (D) vs Heller (R)


SAFE REPUBLICAN

MS,  TN, TX, UT, WY

2012 US SENATE RACE CHART 53 DEM 2-TCTC 45 REP

Posted Nov 04, 2012 at 1:04 PM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

2012 US SENATE RACE CHART

53 DEM       2
-TCTC        45 REP



SAFE DEMOCRATIC

CA, DE, ME, MD, MN, NJ, NY, PA, RI, WA, VT, WV

LEANING DEMOCRATIC

CT: Murphy (D) vs McMahon (R)

FL: Nelson (D) vs McGillicuddy (R)

HI: Hirono (D) vs Lingle (R)

IN: Donnelly (D) vs Murdock (R)

MI: Stebenow (D) vs Hoekstra (R)

MA: Warren (D) vs Brown (R

MO: McGaskill (D) vs Akin (R)

NM: Heinrich (D) vs Wilson (R)
OH
: Brown (D) vs Mandel (R)

WI: Baldwin (D) vs Thompson (R)

 

TOO-CLOSE-TO-CALL

 



MT : Tester (D) vs Rehberg (R)

VA: Kaine (D) vs Allen (R)

 

LEANING REPUBLICAN

AZ: Carmona (D) vs Flake (R)

ND : Heitkamp (D) vs Berg (R)

NE: Kerry (D) vs Deb Fischer (R)

NV: Berkley (D) vs Heller (R)




SAFE REPUBLICAN

MS,  TN, TX, UT, WY

PA Not Strong for Democrats.

Posted Nov 02, 2010 at 3:50 PM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

With a GOP pick up for Governor in PA, it now appears that the US Senate seat will also go to the Republicans. Republican Toomey defeats Democrat Sestak, 51% to 49%. 

Three GOP Gubernatorial Pick Ups

Posted Nov 02, 2010 at 2:40 PM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

The GOP has picked up three Governor's seats:

 

New Mexico: Martinez, REP

Pennsylvania: Corbett, REP

Michigan: Synder, REP

 

The GOP also holds one seat in South Carolina: Halley

 

US Senate Races Remain Competitive For Democrats

Posted Nov 02, 2010 at 2:18 PM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

As many Democratic held seats change hands in the US House, a surprising number of US Senate races remain competitive for Democrats: races in Pennsylvania, Nevada, Colorado, Illinois remain too close to call. Republican candidates were in the lead in all of these races in pre-election polling for these states. This may could be a long evening.

Latest Polls In Races For Governor

Posted Oct 15, 2010 at 1:20 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

Here are the latest polls in competitive governor's races:

ARIZONA: Rocky Mountain GOP Gov. Jan Brewer leads Democrat Terry Goddard, 46% to 35%.

FLORIDA: Public Policy Polling Democrat Alex Sink leads Republican Rick Scott, 46% to 41%.

HAWAII: Honolulu Civil Beat Democrat Neil Abercrombie leads Republican Duke Aiona, 47% to 44%.

MAINE: Critical Insights Republican Paul LePage leads Democrat Libby Mitchell, 32% to 26%, with Independent Eliot Cutler at 11%; Rasmussen reports a closer race, with LePage just edging Mitchell, 35% to 32%, and Cutler at 21%.

MASSACHUSETTS: Suffolk University/7News Democrat Deval Patrick leads Republican Charlie Baker, 46% to 39%, with Independent Tim Cahill at 10%.

MICHIGAN: Baydoun Consulting/Foster McCollum Republican Rick Snyder leads Democrat Virg Bernero, 50% to 37%.

NEVADA: Public Policy Polling survey Republican Brian Sandoval's leads Democrat Rory Reid, 52% to 43%.

PENNSYLVANIA: Magellan Strategies survey Republican Tom Corbett leads Democrat Dan Onorato, 48% to 38% with 11% undecided.

RHODE ISLAND: Quest Research Democrat Frank Caprio leads Independent Lincoln Chafee, 37% to 33%, with Republican John Robitaille at 22%.

SOUTH CAROLINA: Winthrop University poll Republican Nikki Haley leads Democrat Vincent Sheheen, 46% to 37%.

Pennsylvania U.S. Senate: Too-Close-To-Call

Posted Sep 21, 2010 at 1:08 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

A Times Leader poll in Pennsylvania reports that Republican Pat Toomey holds a modest lead over Democratic Rep. Joe Sestak in the U.S. Senate race, 40% to 36%. With 24% undecided, PollTrack continues to raye the race too-close=to-call.

PA Governor: Republican In The Lead

Posted Jun 25, 2010 at 12:50 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

A new Public Policy Polling survey in Pennsylvania shows Republican Tom Corbett leading Democrat Dan Onorato in the race for governor, 45% to 35%.

 

PollTrack Continues To Rate The Race Too-Close-To-Call.

PA U.S. Senate: Another Poll Shows Democrat Sestak With Lead

Posted Jun 09, 2010 at 1:36 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

A Democratic Party affiliated by Garin Hart Yang Research in Pennsylvania shows Democratic Rep. Joe Sestak with a seven point lead over GOP Rep. Pat Toomey, 47% to 40%.

PA U.S. Senate: Democrat Sestak Holds Tiny Lead

Posted Jun 01, 2010 at 1:30 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

A DailyKos/Research 2000 poll in Pennsylvania reports that Democrat Rep. Joe Sestak leads Republican nominee Pat Toomey in the U.S. Senate race, 43% to 40%.

PollTrack rates the race too-close-to-call.

PA U.S. Senate: Photo Finish In Democratic Primary?

Posted May 16, 2010 at 11:20 PM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

The final Muhlenberg/Morning Call tracking survey in Pennsylvania suggest that tomorrow's race may come down to a photo finish: incumbent Sen. Arlen Specter and challenger Rep. Joe Sestak are tied in the Democratic U.S. Senate primary race at 44%.

PA U.S. Senate: Specter Falls Further Behind

Posted May 14, 2010 at 1:05 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

A just released Suffolk University poll in Pennsylvania reports that Democratic Rep. Joe Sestak now lead incumbent Sen. Arlen Specter in the Democratic Senate primary by +9%, 49% to 40%, with another 12% undecided. That a five-point jump from earlier in the week.

PA U.S. Senate: Is Specter In Danger in Reelection Race?

Posted May 11, 2010 at 1:06 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

A new poll suggest that incumbent Democratic U.S. Senator Arlen Specter is in Danger in his reelection bid in Pennsylvania. In the Democratic primary, the survey shows Specter behind rival Joe Sestak. In Monday's Muhlenberg/Morning Call tracking poll: Rep. Sestak leads Sen. Specter by +5%--47% to 42%. A new Rasmussen survey also shows Sestak with a +5% lead, 47% to 42%.

US Senate 2010: Examining The Toss Up Races--Pennsylvania

Posted Mar 24, 2010 at 1:06 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

This week, Polltrack looks at races it rates as a Toss Up for 2010 US Senate.

Here is the poll average for PENNSYLVANIA:

Toomey (R) 44.0% to Specter (D) 41.0%.

Slight edge to the Republican, but the race is a true toss up. The tea leaves are, at this point, very difficult to read. It appears that Specter's number have been improving in recent months.

PA US Senate 2010: Democrat Specter Now Leads

Posted Mar 15, 2010 at 2:23 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

A new DailyKos/Research 2000 poll in Pennsylvania reports that incumbent U.S. Senator Arlen Specter has a modest lead Republican Pat Toomey, 47% to 41%. Other surveys have also reported movement in Specter's direction in recent weeks.

PA US Senate 2010: Leans Republican

Posted Feb 26, 2010 at 1:19 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

A new Franklin & Marshall poll in Pennsylvania finds Republican Pat Toomey leading both potential democratic rivals Sen. Arlen Specter and Rep. Joe Sestak by double-digits in general election match ups. Toomey bests Specter, 44% to 34%, and leads Sestak, 38% to 20%. Nevertheless, with a large undecided block, PollTrack continues to rate the race a toss up.

PollTrack Early Read in Pennsylvania: Toss Up

PA US Senate 2010: A Dead Heat

Posted Feb 15, 2010 at 2:04 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

According to PollTrack's first read of Democrat US Senator Arlen Specter's 2010 reelection bid in Pennsylvania, neither party has an edge. PollTrack First Call: Toss Up.

PA US Senate 2010: A Dead Heat

Posted Dec 21, 2009 at 1:23 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

A just released Quinnipiac University survey reports that if the 2010 US Senate Election in PA were held today, incumbent Senator Arlen Specter (D) and former Rep. Pat Toomey would be in a dead heat, tied at 44 percent. In the Democratic primary, Specter is surprisingly strong, boasting a 20 point lead over Rep. Joe Sestak (D-Pa.), 50 percent to 30 percent, according to the poll in the Democratic primary scheduled for April 2010.

Arelen Specter In Serious Trouble In PA

Posted Jun 29, 2009 at 2:09 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

Former Republican, now turned Democratic, US Senator Arlen Specter is in deep trouble in his 2010 PA reelection bid, according to a new Franklin and Marshall survey: His job approval rating has dropped from 52% to 34% over the past three months. Even more ominous for Specter is that the proportion of state residents who believe he deserves re-election has declined from 40% to 28%. His numbers are tepid even among members of his recently adopted party: 43% of Democrats say Specter deserves re-election; 39% say no. In a hypothetical primary match up with Rep. Joe Sestak (D-PA), Specter leads 33% to 13%. Nevertheless, and quite significantly, 48% remain undecided.

A Ray Of Hope For GOP In 2010 Pennsylvania Senate Race?

Posted May 05, 2009 at 12:46 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

Is there a ray of hope for the GOP in its efforts to unseat newly minted Democrat US Senator Arlen Specter in his 2010 reelection drive in Pennsylvania? Perhaps: "Former Pennsylvania Gov. Tom Ridge (R) is considering running for the U.S. Senate nomination in his home state." According to Roll Call and reported by Political Wire, national Republicans "have been publicly and privately urging Ridge to consider a Senate bid since Sen. Arlen Specter (D-PA) announced earlier this week that he was switching parties and would run for re-election as a Democrat in 2010." Ridge's 'moderate politics and national profile would make him a more viable candidatei in the general election than former Rep. Pat Toomey (R-PA)." A new Susquehanna Polling & Research poll also finds Ridge would edge Specter, 39% to 38%, in a match up for U.S. Senate.

Newly Minted Democrat, Sen. Arlen Specter, Now Favored In His 2010 Reelection Bid

Posted Apr 30, 2009 at 12:40 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

According to Political Wire, "as a result of Sen. Arlen Specter's decision to run for re-election as a Democrat, CQ Politics is changing its rating of the Pennsylvania U.S. Senate race to "Leans Democratic" from the tossup category, "No Clear Favorite." Similarly, the Cook Political Report changed its rating to Leans Democratic and the Rothenberg Political Report now rates the race as Clear Advantage for the Incumbent Party." What a difference a day can make.

US Senator Specter Not Popular With Fellow Republicans in Pennsylvania

Posted Apr 29, 2009 at 1:00 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

One major reason why incumbent US Senator Arlen Spector jumped to the Democratic party yesterday: he remains very unpopular with fellow Republicans in Pennsylvania. According to a recent poll, the moderate sentaor trailed former conservative Congressman Pat Toomey by 21 points in "an early look at Pennsylvania’s 2010 Republican Primary. 51% of Republican voters statewide say they’d vote for Toomey while just 30% would support Specter. Specter is viewed favorably by 42% of Pennsylvania Republicans and unfavorably by 55%, according to a new Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of voters in the state. Those are stunningly poor numbers for a long-term incumbent senator. Specter was first elected to the Senate in 1980." The Senator chances appear much stronger with Democrats, with whom his approval rating has remained generally high in the state.

Chris Matthews Out For 2010 PA Senate

Posted Mar 25, 2009 at 1:30 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

The New York Times reports that democrat Chris Matthews will not be running against incumbent Republican Pennsylvania Senator Arlen Specter in 2010. The Times reports that "Matthews, the usually garrulous host of Hardball on MSNBC, has quietly signed a new long-term contract to remain with the cable network through the next election, signaling that he had quit entertaining any plans to run for a Senate seat.The deal is for at least four years. Financial terms were not disclosed, and neither side would confirm whether MSNBC had won a reduction in salary for the host, as it had been reported to be seeking. Previous reports put his annual salary at about $5 million."

PA Demographics Imperil Incumbent GOP Senator

Posted Mar 19, 2009 at 12:40 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

Incumbent US Senator Arlen Specter has a new challenge in Pennsylvania: the state's shifting demographics. According to election data tabulated by Roll Call, his once reliable suburban Philadelphia base "has seen the sharpest drop in Republican registrations in the state -- numbers that collectively exceed his margin of victory over Pat Toomey in the 2004 Republican primary. . . . A simultaneous spike in Democratic enrollment likely means that moderate Republicans switched their registrations over the past four years. The result is bad math for Specter, who will likely face a more conservative GOP electorate in the 2010 primary than he did in 2004."

PA GOP Senator Arlen Specter Lagging In Popularity

Posted Mar 06, 2009 at 1:28 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

According to a new poll, GOP US Senator Arlen Specter from Pennsylvania may be the latest northeast Republican in danger of loosing his seat: "53% of Pennsylvanians -- and 66 percent of Republicans -- want someone to replace Specter. "Asked whether they think Specter, a Philadelphia Republican, has done his job well enough to win re-election or whether they'd prefer a 'new person' in that job, registered voters by a 53-38% said it's time to give someone else a chance, according to the poll by Susquehanna Polling and Research. 8% were undecided."

 

Republican PA Senator Specter Taking A Hit For His Support of Stimulus Package

Posted Feb 17, 2009 at 1:39 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

Senator Arlen Specter of Pennsylvania was one of three Republicans to support the stimulus package now making its way through Congress. His support appears to hurt him with many voters in the state, a possible problem for his 2010 reeelection effort. Tatest Rasmussen Reports survey in Pennsylvania roports that just 31% voters say are more likely to vote for Specter because of his position on the stimulus package while 40% are less likely to do so."

PA Republican US Senator Arlen Specter Highly Vulnerable in His 2010 Reelection Bid

Posted Feb 12, 2009 at 2:10 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

Pennsylvania Republican US Senator appears to be highly vulnerable in his upcoming 2010 reelection bid. When Pennsylvania voters were asked in a new Quinnipiac survey if Sen. Arlen Specter (R-PA) deserves re-election, 40% said yes while 43% said no.

Chris Matthews Unlikely to Challenge Specter in 2010

Posted Jan 08, 2009 at 5:53 PM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

According to PolitickerPA.com, Chris Matthew's brother Jim thinks the journalist and MSNBC anchor will not challenge incumbent Republican Pennsylvania Senator Arlen Specter in 2010: "'There is no hint of him running for office,' said Matthews . . . 'That's 1,000 percent true.' Jim Matthews, a Republican commissioner in Montgomery County, emphasized that it's his opinion -- he didn't hear it directly out of his brother's mouth. But he said his brother was very upbeat about returning to "Hardball" and already had a new contract offer in hand from the cable news network. I know there's been discussion about (a Senate run) ... but I would be stunned beyond words if he does anything besides but look forward tomorrow to going to work . . . I just think he's recharged.'" Yesterday, Chris Matthews echoed his brother's sentiment, telling his staff at MS NBC Hardball that he has NO intention of taking on Specter in 2010.

 

Chris Matthews NOT Running In Pennsylvania?

Posted Dec 11, 2008 at 2:54 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

According to Poltico, Chris Matthews is about to sign a new contract with MSNBC News. Does this make a run in 2010 against incumbent Reoublican senator Arlen Specter less likely? Probably, since retaining his job as a political commentaor would present a conflict of interest fot the journalist.

US Senate PA 2010: Specter (r) Vulnerable To Matthews (d) Challenge

Posted Dec 05, 2008 at 1:26 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

Contradicting some recent polling that shows Chris Matthews trailing Republican incumbent Arlen Specter in a hypothetical 2010 US Senate matchup, Rasmussen Reports has released a poll indicating that the Democrat presents a real threat to Specter: "Republican Senator Arlen Specter is potentially vulnerable in his 2010 bid for re-election. A Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Pennsylvania voters finds Specter leading MSNBC pundit Chris Matthews by just three percentage points, 46% to 43%, in a match-up that may foreshadow one of the nation's most closely-watched Senate races." More from CQ Politics on the Rasmussen poll: "The moderate Specter has only a 68 percent favorability rating in his own party but benefits from being viewed positively by 48 percent of Democrats. As far as actual support, 70 percent of Republicans say they would vote for him and 32 percent of Democrats said they would too."

US Senate PA 2010: Chris Matthews (d) Still Interested In Run Against Arlen Specter (r)

Posted Dec 04, 2008 at 1:18 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

According to Poltics PA, talk show host, Democrat Chris Matthews remains interested in challenging incumbent Republican US Seanator Arlen Specter in 2010: "Knowledgeable sources have confirmed that Matthews has discussed a possible run for U.S. Senate with Congressman and Philadelphia Democratic City Committee Chair Bob Brady; Treasurer-elect Rob McCord; Allegheny County Democratic Chair Jim Burn; and Neil Oxman, Pennsylvania's premier political consultant."A recent Quinnipiac University poll suggests that neither candidate would walk away with the race, but that Matthews was in a weaker position at this point. In the poll, Specter lead Matthews, 45% to 33%.

Early Look At The Pennsylvania US Senate 2010: Specter vs Matthews

Posted Nov 28, 2008 at 6:00 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

Quinnipiac is out with an early barometer of the hypothetical 2010 Us Senate match up between incumbent Republican Arlen Specter and MSNBC political commentator, Democrat Chris Matthews. The survey reports that Specter holds a 45% to 33% lead over Matthews. "Sen. Specter leads 72 - 9 percent among Republicans and 45 - 27 percent among independent voters, while Matthews leads 55 - 25 percent among Democrats." "Who says the Republicans are dead? Sen. Arlen Specter has the highest job approval rating of any major Pennsylvania Pol and would knock off Chris Matthews by 12 points if the Hardball host decides to run against him," observes (Quinnipiac assistant polling director) Clay Richards. "Matthews has been on MSNBC wall to wall during the election season, but is a question mark for 60 percent of the voters. Specter has been relatively invisible the past year and has a strong 56 percent favorable rating."