Presidential Race Maps Writing on the Wall

Republicans Forging Ahead On Generic Ballot

Posted Dec 28, 2009 at 2:50 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

According to a new Rasmussen Reports survey, Republican candidates now lead Democrats by +8% in the latest "generic congressional ballot. The national telephone survey reported that 44% would vote for their district's Republican candidate; 36% percent would choose the Democratic.


Generic Congressional Ballot: Who's Really Ahead?

Posted Nov 12, 2009 at 1:10 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

With the full House up for election next year, who's really ahead in terms of political support. The Congressional Generic ballot, which measures general support for the two major parties in these races, offers a snapshot of voter sentiment. Yet, given dramatic differences in likely voter models, three major polling organizations come out with startlingly different results. For the first time in months, for example, Republicans have moved ahead of Democrats by 48% to 44% among registered voters in the latest update on Gallup's generic congressional ballot for the 2010 House elections, after trailing by six points in July and two points last month. Two other pollsters also weigh in, with contradictory results:

  CNN/Opinion Research Democrats 50, Republicans 44 Democrats +6
Rasmussen Reports Democrats 38, Republicans 42


Republicans +4


Reublican Favored To Replace Democrat Gillibrand In House

Posted Mar 03, 2009 at 1:25 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

A new poll by the Siena (College) Research Institute reports that with nearly five weeks to go until the special election in the 20th C.D., Republican Assembly Minority Leader James Tedisco has a 46-34 percent lead over Democrat Scott Murphy in the race for Kristine Gillibrand's former House seat: "Tedisco scores better on six specific issues, although his lead over Murphy on five issues – including the economy, the most important issue voters want their next Member of Congress to address – is in single digits. Senator Gillibrand, who represented the district for more than two years, up until five weeks ago, enjoys strong support from voters of all parties."

Democrats Improve On Congressional Generic Ballot

Posted Feb 27, 2009 at 1:04 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

Things have improved a bit for Democrats in their congressional prospects for 2010: "Democrats have pulled slightly further ahead this week in the latest edition of the Generic Congressional Ballot.Rasmussen Reports national telephone surveys found that 41% of voters said they would vote for their district’s Democratic candidate while 37% said they would choose the Republica." 

Republican PA Senator Specter Taking A Hit For His Support of Stimulus Package

Posted Feb 17, 2009 at 1:39 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

Senator Arlen Specter of Pennsylvania was one of three Republicans to support the stimulus package now making its way through Congress. His support appears to hurt him with many voters in the state, a possible problem for his 2010 reeelection effort. Tatest Rasmussen Reports survey in Pennsylvania roports that just 31% voters say are more likely to vote for Specter because of his position on the stimulus package while 40% are less likely to do so."

Who Will Replace Hillary Clinton As New York's Junior Senator?

Posted Dec 03, 2008 at 2:01 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

Who will replace Democrat Hillary Clinton as New York's junior senator? As per MSNBC, the list is short but impressive: "Several names have been floated, including state Attorney General Andrew Cuomo, son of former popular Gov. Mario Cuomo, Nassau County Executive Tom Suozzi, U.S. Reps. Kirsten Gillibrand, Brian Higgins, Nydia Velazquez, Jerrold Nadler, Nita Lowey (who reportedly wants to stay in the House), Steve Israel, Gregory Meeks and Louise Slaughter, Buffalo Mayor Byron Brown (the city's first black mayor) and Bronx Borough President Adolfo Carrión Jr. Even NYC Mayor Mike Bloomberg's and Caroline Kennedy's names have been thrown out there." Interestingly, Lowey was the front runner for the seat back in 2000, but gave up her chance at the senate once Hillary Clinton threw her hat into the ring. Public opinion polls indicate that most New York voters favor Cuomo as Clinton's replacement by a substantial margin. Appointing Cuomo may actually provide current Democratic Governor David Patteron with a real political advantage: Cuomo was rumored to be ready to oppose him in 2010. If appointed, Cuomo would instead run for the remainder of Clinton's term (her seat is up in 2012) in 2010. Clinton has given no indication that she plans to resign soon, and will most probably give up her seat upon Senate confirmation as US Secretary of State. CNN also puts to rest a rumor that been swirling around the past few days: Bill Clinton "has no interest in replacing his wife in the U.S. Senate," according to his spokesman, "adding any speculation that he would be interested is 'completely false.'"


US Congressional Races: Obama's Coattails Apparent But Modest

Posted Nov 05, 2008 at 2:35 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

In the race for control of the US House of Representatives, Democrats bolstered their majority, but it appears that they will wrest only 20-23 seats from the Republicans, considerably short of the party's expectations. CQ Politics writes: "Democrats were poised to make a net gain of at least 16 seats, augmenting the 30-seat gain that they made in the 2006 elections to reverse a dozen years of House Republican rule. Democrats unseated at least 10 Republican incumbents and also captured at least 10 other districts that Republicans left open to retire or seek other office. Four Democratic incumbents were defeated." In the Senate (see our US Senate Report in Writing on the Wall) the Democrats will also fall shirt of their desired goal of 60 seats, a veto-proof congress. While Obama's broad and commanding victory helped pull-in a number of Republican-leaning districts and Senate seats now held by Republicans, the Democratic congressional gains are modest relative to the dire state of the Republican brand and the record-low approval ratings of incumbent Republican President George W. Bush. Still, the overall gains in both chambers of congress should provide Obama with a good head start to advance his agenda. Still, with the Republicans holding at least 41 seats (and current trends suggesting they may wind up with as many as 44)--and one additional seat due to the strong possibility that Connecticut Senator Joe Lieberman (i) will be tossed from the Democratic caucus--the Senate is hardly filibuster-proof at this point, a potential problem for the new Democratic administration.