Presidential Race Maps Writing on the Wall

FINAL GOVERNOR RACE CHART 2010: REP-30 TCTC-1 DEM-18 IND-1

Posted Nov 01, 2010 at 11:09 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

GOVERNOR RACE CHART 2010

Predicted Balance of Power: REP-30 TCTC-1 DEM-18 IND-1

California: Leaning Democrat DEM+6.4%

Colorado: Leaning Democrat  DEM+4.6%

Connecticut: Leaning Republican REP+1.7%

*Florida: Too-Close-To-Call TIE

Hawaii: Leaning Democrat DEM+5.0%

Illinois: Leaning Republican REP+4.5%

Massachusetts: Leaning Democrat DEM+4.6%

Minnesota: Leaning Democrat DEM+5.4%

Ohio: Leaning Republican REP+2.8%

Oregon: Leaning Democrat DEM+2.4%

Rhode Island: Leaning Independent IND+8.0%

Vermont: Leaning Democrat DEM+5.0%

Likely/Safe Democrat: AR, MD, NH, NY

Likely/Safe Republican: AK, AZ, GA, IA, ME, MI, NM, NV, OK, PA,  SC, TX, WI

GOVERNOR RACE CHART 2010: REP-29 TCTC-2 DEM-18 IND-1

Posted Nov 01, 2010 at 2:31 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

GOVERNOR RACE CHART 2010

Predicted Balance of Power: REP-29 TCTC-2 DEM-18 IND-1

California: Leaning Democrat DEM+6.4%

Colorado: Leaning Democrat  DEM+4.6%

Connecticut:  Too-Close-To-Call Leaning Republican REP+1.7%

Florida: Too-Close-To-Call REP+0.2%

Hawaii: Leaning Democrat DEM+5.0%

Illinois: Leaning Republican REP+4.5%

Massachusetts: Leaning Democrat DEM+4.6%

Minnesota: Leaning Democrat DEM+5.4%

Ohio: Leaning Republican REP+2.6%

*Oregon: Leaning Democrat (From Too-Close-To-Call) DEM+0.4%

Rhode Island: Leaning Independent IND+8.0%

Vermont: Leaning Democrat (From Too-Close-To-Call)DEM+5.0%

Likely/Safe Democrat: AR, MD, NH, NY

Likely/Safe Republican: AK, AZ, GA, IA, ME, MI, NM, NV, OK, PA,  SC, TX, WI

GOVERNOR RACE CHART 2010: REP-29 TCTC-4 DEM-16 IND-1

Posted Oct 31, 2010 at 10:01 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

GOVERNOR RACE CHART 2010

Predicted Balance of Power: REP-29 TCTC-4 DEM-16 IND-1

California: Leaning Democrat DEM+6.4%

Colorado: Leaning Democrat  DEM+7.6%

*Connecticut:  Too-Close-To-Call Leaning Democrat DEM-0.3%

Florida: Too-Close-To-Call REP+1.7%

*Hawaii: Leaning Democrat Too-Close-To-Call DEM+6.5

Illinois: Leaning Republican REP+4.5%

Massachusetts: Leaning Democrat DEM+4.6

Minnesota: Leaning Democrat DEM+5.4%

Ohio: Leaning Republican REP+3.0%

Oregon: Too-Close-To-Call DEM+0.4%

Pennsylvania: Leaning Republican REP+7.0%

Rhode Island: Leaning Independent IND+8.0%

Vermont: Too-Close-To-Call DEM+5.0%

Likely/Safe Democrat: AR, MD, NH, NY

Likely/Safe Republican: AK, AZ, GA, IA, ME, MI, NM, NV, OK, SC, TX, WI

GOVERNOR RACE CHART 2010: REP-28 TCTC-6 DEM-15 IND-1

Posted Oct 30, 2010 at 3:16 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

GOVERNOR RACE CHART 2010

Predicted Balance of Power: REP-28 TCTC-6 DEM-15 IND-1

California: Leaning Democrat 

Colorado: Leaning Democrat

Connecticut: Leaning Democrat

Florida: Too-Close-To-Call

Georgia: Leaning Republican

Hawaii: Too-Close-To-Call

Illinois: Leaning Republican

Maine: Too-Close-To-Call 

Maryland: Leaning Democrat

Massachusetts: Leaning Democrat 

Minnesota: Too-Close-To-Call (From Leaning Democrat)

New Mexico: Leaning Republican 

North Carolina: Leaning Republican

Ohio: Leaning Republican (from Too-Close-To-Call)

Oregon: Too-Close-To-Call

New Hampshire: Leaning Democrat

Pennsylvania: Leaning Republican

Rhode Island: Leaning Independent IND-1 (From Too-Close-To-Call)

Texas: Leaning Republican

Vermont: Too-Close-To-Call

Wisconsin: Leaning Republican
 
 
Likely/Safe Democrat: AR, NY
Likely/Safe Republican: AK, AZ, IA, MI, NV, OK, SC

GOVERNOR RACE CHART 2010: REP-28 TCTC-5 DEM-16 IND-1

Posted Oct 28, 2010 at 4:28 PM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

GOVERNOR RACE CHART 2010

Predicted Balance of Power: REP-28 TCTC-5 DEM-16 IND-1

California: Leaning Democrat 

Colorado: Leaning Democrat

Connecticut: Leaning Democrat

Florida: Too-Close-To-Call

Georgia: Leaning Republican

Hawaii: Too-Close-To-Call

Illinois: Leaning Republican

Maine: Too-Close-To-Call 

Maryland: Leaning Democrat

Massachusetts: Leaning Democrat 

Minnesota: Leaning Democrat 

New Mexico: Leaning Republican 

North Carolina: Leaning Republican

Ohio: Leaning Republican (from Too-Close-To-Call)

Oregon: Too-Close-To-Call

New Hampshire: Leaning Democrat

Pennsylvania: Leaning Republican

Rhode Island: Leaning Independent IND-1 (From Too-Close-To-Call)

Texas: Leaning Republican

Vermont: Too-Close-To-Call

Wisconsin: Leaning Republican
 
 
Likely/Safe Democrat: AR, NY
Likely/Safe Republican: AK, AZ, IA, MI, NV, OK, SC


GOVERNOR RACE CHART 2010: REP-28 TCTC-6 DEM-16

Posted Oct 27, 2010 at 4:09 PM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

GOVERNOR RACE CHART 2010

Predicted Balance of Power: REP-28 TCTC-6 DEM-16

California: Leaning Democrat 

Colorado: Leaning Democrat

Connecticut: Leaning Democrat

Florida: Too-Close-To-Call

Georgia: Leaning Republican

Hawaii: Too-Close-To-Call

Illinois: Leaning Republican

Maine: Too-Close-To-Call 

Maryland: Leaning Democrat

Massachusetts: Leaning Democrat 

Minnesota: Leaning Democrat 

New Mexico: Leaning Republican 

North Carolina: Leaning Republican

Ohio: Leaning Republican (from Too-Close-To-Call)

Oregon: Too-Close-To-Call

New Hampshire: Leaning Democrat

Pennsylvania: Leaning Republican

Rhode Island: Too-Close-To-Call (from Leaning Democrat)

Texas: Leaning Republican

Vermont: Too-Close-To-Call

Wisconsin: Leaning Republican
 
 
Likely/Safe Democrat: AR, NY
Likely/Safe Republican: AK, AZ, IA, MI, NV, OK, SC

GOVERNOR RACE CHART 2010: REP-28 TCTC-6 DEM-16

Posted Oct 27, 2010 at 1:54 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

GOVERNOR RACE CHART 2010

Predicted Balance of Power: REP-28 TCTC-6 DEM-16

California: Leaning Democrat 

Colorado: Leaning Democrat

Connecticut: Leaning Democrat

Florida: Too-Close-To-Call

Georgia: Leaning Republican

Hawaii: Too-Close-To-Call

Illinois: Leaning Republican

Maine: Too-Close-To-Call 

Maryland: Leaning Democrat

Massachusetts: Leaning Democrat 

Minnesota: Leans Democrat 

New Mexico: Leaning Republican 

North Carolina: Leaning Republican

Ohio: Leaning Republican (from Too-Close-To-Call)

Oregon: Too-Close-To-Call

New Hampshire: Leans Democrat

Pennsylvania: Leaning Republican

*Rhode Island: Too-Close-To-Call (from Leans Democrat)

Texas: Leaning Republican

Vermont: Too-Close-To-Call

Wisconsin: Leaning Republican
 
 
Likely/Safe Democrat: AR, NY
Likely/Safe Republican: AK, AZ, IA, MI, NV, OK, SC

GOVERNOR RACE CHART 2010: REP-28 TCTC-5 DEM-17

Posted Oct 25, 2010 at 1:57 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

GOVERNOR RACE CHART 2010

Predicted Balance of Power: REP-28 TCTC-5 DEM-17

California: Leaning Democrat 

Colorado: Leaning Democrat (from Likely Democrat)

Connecticut: Leaning Democrat

Florida: Too-Close-To-Call

Georgia: Leaning Republican

Hawaii: Too-Close-To-Call

Illinois: Leaning Republican

Maine: Too-Close-To-Call 

Maryland: Leaning Democrat

*Massachusetts: Leaning Democrat (From Too-Close-To-Call)

Minnesota: Leans Democrat 

New Mexico: Leaning Republican 

North Carolina: Leaning Republican

Ohio: Leaning Republican (from Too-Close-To-Call)

Oregon: Too-Close-To-Call

New Hampshire: Leans Democrat

Pennsylvania: Leaning Republican

Rhode Island: Leans Democrat

Texas: Leaning Republican

Vermont: Too-Close-To-Call

Wisconsin: Leaning Republican
 
 
Likely/Safe Democrat: AR, NY
Likely/Safe Republican: AK, AZ, IA, MI, NV, OK, SC

Latest Polls In Races For Governor

Posted Oct 25, 2010 at 1:56 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

Here are the latest polls in the close races for governor:

CALIFORNIA: Los Angeles Times/USC Democrat Jerry Brown leads Republican Meg Whitman, 52% to 39%.

COLORADO: SurveyUSA Democrat John Hickenlooper leads Constitution Party candidate Tom Tancredo, 49% to 39%, with Republican Dan Maes at 9%.

FLORIDA: St. Petersburg Times/Miami Herald Republican Rick Scott leads Democrat Alex Sink, 44% to 41%.

ILLINOIS: Mason-Dixon Republican Bill Brady's leads Democratic Gov. Pat Quinn, 44% to 40%.

MARYLAND: Baltimore Sun Democratic Gov. Martin O'Malley leads Republican Bob Ehrlich, 52% to 38%.

MASSACHUSETTS: Boston Globe Democratic Gov. Deval Patrick leads Republican Charles Baker, 43% to 39%, with independent Timothy Cahill at 8% and Green-Rainbow candidate Jill Stein at 2%.

MINNESOTA: Star Tribune Minnesota Democrat Mark Dayton leads Republican Tom Emmer, 41% to 34%, with Independent Tom Horner at 13%.

NORTH CAROLINA: Insider Advantage Republican Nikki Haley leads Democrat Vincent Sheheen, 51% to 37%.

OHIO: Dayton Daily News/Ohio Newspaper Republican John Kasich leads Democratic Gov. Ted Strickland, 49% to 47%.

Latest Polls In Races For Governor

Posted Oct 22, 2010 at 2:03 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

Here are the latest polls in competitive races for governor:


CALIFORNIA: SurveyUSA Democrat Jerry Brown leads Republican Meg Whitman, 47% to 40%; Public Policy Institute of California Brown leads Whitman, 44% to 36%.

COLORADO: Fox News Democrat John Hickenlooper leads Independent Tom Tancredo, 45% to 40%; Reuters/Ipsos Hickenlooper leads Tancredo, 46% to 35%, with GOP candidate Maes at 14%.

GEORGIA: InsiderAdvantage Republican Nathan Deal leads Democrat Roy Barnes, 45% to 40%.

ILLINOIS: Public Policy Polling Republican Bill Brady leads Democratic Gov. Pat Quinn, 42% to 41%.

MARYLAND: Gonzales Research Democratic Gov. Martin O'Malley leads former GOP Gov. Bob Ehrlich, 47% to 42%.

NEW YORK: Siena Democrat Andrew Cuomo leads Republican Carl Paladino, 63% to 26%.

NORTH CAROLINA: Rasmussen Republican Nikki Haley leads Democrat Vincent Sheheen, 47% to 38%.

OHIO: CNN/Time/Opinion Research Democratic Gov. Ted Strickland leads John Kasich, 48% to 47%; Quinnipiac Republican John Kasich leads Democratic Gov. Ted Strickland, 51% to 41%.

OREGON: DailyKos/Public Policy Polling Democrat John Kitzhaber leads Chris Dudley, 48% to 47%.

GOVERNOR RACE CHART 2010: REP-28 TCTC-6 DEM-16

Posted Oct 20, 2010 at 1:51 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

GOVERNOR RACE CHART 2010

Predicted Balance of Power: REP-28 TCTC-6 DEM-16

California: Leaning Democrat 

Colorado: Leaning Democrat (from Likely Democrat)

Connecticut: Leaning Democrat

Florida: Too-Close-To-Call

Georgia: Leaning Republican

Hawaii: Too-Close-To-Call

Illinois: Leaning Republican

Maine: Too-Close-To-Call 

Maryland: Leaning Democrat

Massachusetts: Too-Close-To-Call

Minnesota: Leans Democrat 

New Mexico: Leaning Republican 

North Carolina: Leaning Republican

*Ohio: Leaning Republican (from Too-Close-To-Call)

Oregon: Too-Close-To-Call

New Hampshire: Leans Democrat

Pennsylvania: Leaning Republican

Rhode Island: Leans Democrat

Texas: Leaning Republican

Vermont: Too-Close-To-Call

Wisconsin: Leaning Republican
 
 
Likely/Safe Democrat: AR, NY
Likely/Safe Republican: AK, AZ, IA, MI, NV, OK, SC

GOVERNOR RACE CHART 2010: REP-27 TCTC-7 DEM-16

Posted Oct 19, 2010 at 1:26 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

GOVERNOR RACE CHART 2010

Predicted Balance of Power: REP-27 TCTC-7 DEM-16

California: Leaning Democrat 

*Colorado: Leaning Democrat (from Likely Democrat)

Connecticut: Leaning Democrat

Florida: Too-Close-To-Call

Georgia: Leaning Republican

Hawaii: Too-Close-To-Call

Illinois: Leaning Republican

Maine: Too-Close-To-Call 

Maryland: Leaning Democrat

Massachusetts: Too-Close-To-Call

Minnesota: Leans Democrat 

New Mexico: Leaning Republican 

North Carolina: Leaning Republican

Ohio: Too-Close-To-Call 

Oregon: Too-Close-To-Call

New Hampshire: Leans Democrat

Pennsylvania: Leaning Republican

Rhode Island: Leans Democrat

Texas: Leaning Republican

Vermont: Too-Close-To-Call

Wisconsin: Leaning Republican
 
 
Likely/Safe Democrat: AR, NY
Likely/Safe Republican: AK, AZ, IA, MI, NV, OK, SC

Latest Polls In Close Races For Governor

Posted Oct 18, 2010 at 12:56 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

Here are the latest polls in competitive gubernatorial races:

CALIFORNIA: Reuters/Ipsos Democrat Jerry Brown leads Republican Meg Whitman, 48% to 44%. Rasmussen reports Democrat Jerry Brown leading Meg Whitman, 50% to 44%.

COLORADO: Rasmussen Democrat John Hickenlooper leads IndependentTom Tancredo, 42% to 38%, with Republican Dan Maes at 12%.

FLORIDA: Sunshine State News Democrat Alex Sink leads Republican Rick Scott, 48% to 45%.

NEW MEXICO: SurveyUSA Republican Susana Martinez leads Democrat Diane Denish, 54% to 42%.

OHIO: Ohio Poll Republican John Kasich leads Democratic Gov. Ted Strickland, 51% to 43% with 6% undecided.

OREGON: SurveyUSA Democrat John Kitzhaber edges Republican Chris Dudley, 46% to 45%.

VERMONT: Vermont Public Radio Republican Brian Dubie leads Democrat Peter Shumlin, 44% to 43%.

GOVERNOR RACE CHART 2010: REP-27 TCTC-7 DEM-16

Posted Oct 15, 2010 at 1:19 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

GOVERNOR RACE CHART 2010

Predicted Balance of Power: REP-27 TCTC-7 DEM-16

California: Leaning Democrat 

Connecticut: Leaning Democrat

Florida: Too-Close-To-Call

Georgia: Leaning Republican

*Hawaii: Too-Close-To-Call (From Likely Democrat)

Illinois: Leaning Republican

*Maine: Too-Close-To-Call (from Leaning Republican)

Maryland: Leaning Democrat

Massachusetts: Too-Close-To-Call

Minnesota: Leans Democrat 

New Mexico: Leaning Republican 

North Carolina: Leaning Republican

Ohio: Too-Close-To-Call 

Oregon: Too-Close-To-Call

New Hampshire: Leans Democrat

Pennsylvania: Leaning Republican

Rhode Island: Leans Democrat

Texas: Leaning Republican

Vermont: Too-Close-To-Call

Wisconsin: Leaning Republican
 
 
Likely/Safe Democrat: AR, CO, NY
Likely/Safe Republican: AK, AZ, IA, MI, NV, OK, SC

GOVERNOR RACE CHART 2010 REP-28 TCTC-5 DEM-17

Posted Oct 13, 2010 at 1:23 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

GOVERNOR RACE CHART 2010

Predicted Balance of Power: REP-28 TCTC-5 DEM-17

California: Leaning Democrat 

Connecticut: Leaning Democrat

Florida: Too-Close-To-Call

Georgia: Leaning Republican

Illinois: Leaning Republican

Maine: Leaning Republican

Maryland: Leaning Democrat

Massachusetts: Too-Close-To-Call

Minnesota: Leaning Democrat (from too-Close-To-Call)

New Mexico: Leaning Republican 

North Carolina: Leaning Republican (from Likely Republican)

Ohio: Too-Close-To-Call 

Oregon: Too-Close-To-Call

New Hampshire: Leaning Democrat

Pennsylvania: Leaning Republican

Rhode Island: Leaning Democrat

*Texas: Likely Republican (from Leaning Republican)

Vermont: Too-Close-To-Call

Wisconsin: Leaning Republican
 
 
Likely/Safe Democrat: AR, CO, HI, NY
Likely/Safe Republican: AK, AZ, IA, MI, NV, OK, SC

GOVERNOR RACE CHART 2010 REP-28 TCTC-5 DEM-17

Posted Oct 08, 2010 at 1:42 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

GOVERNOR RACE CHART 2010

Predicted Balance of Power: REP-28 TCTC-5 DEM-17

California: Leaning Democrat 

Connecticut: Leaning Democrat

Florida: Too-Close-To-Call

Georgia: Leaning Republican

Illinois: Leaning Republican

Maine: Leaning Republican

Maryland: Leaning Democrat

Massachusetts: Too-Close-To-Call

Minnesota: Leans Democrat (from too-Close-To-Call)

New Mexico: Leaning Republican 

*North Carolina: Leaning Republican (from Likely Republican)

Ohio: Too-Close-To-Call 

Oregon: Too-Close-To-Call

New Hampshire: Leans Democrat

Pennsylvania: Leaning Republican

Rhode Island: Leans Democrat

Texas: Leaning Republican

Vermont: Too-Close-To-Call

Wisconsin: Leaning Republican
 
 
Likely/Safe Democrat: AR, CO, HI, NY
Likely/Safe Republican: AK, AZ, IA, MI, NV, OK, SC

GOVERNOR RACE CHART 2010 REP-28 TCTC-5 DEM-17

Posted Oct 06, 2010 at 12:59 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

GOVERNOR RACE CHART 2010

Predicted Balance of Power: REP-28 TCTC-5 DEM-17

California: Leaning Democrat 

Connecticut: Leaning Democrat

Florida: Too-Close-To-Call

Georgia: Leaning Republican

Illinois: Leaning Republican

Maine: Leaning Republican

Maryland: Leaning Democrat

Massachusetts: Too-Close-To-Call

*Minnesota: Leans Democrat (from too-Close-To-Call)

New Mexico: Leaning Republican 

Ohio: Too-Close-To-Call 

Oregon: Too-Close-To-Call

New Hampshire: Leans Democrat

Pennsylvania: Leaning Republican

Rhode Island: Leans Democrat

Texas: Leaning Republican

Vermont: Too-Close-To-Call

Wisconsin: Leaning Republican
 
 
Likely/Safe Democrat: AR, CO, HI, NY
Likely/Safe Republican: AK, AZ, IA, MI, NV, OK, SC

GOVERNOR RACE CHART 2010 REP-28 TCTC-6 DEM-16

Posted Oct 05, 2010 at 1:29 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

GOVERNOR RACE CHART 2010

Predicted Balance of Power: REP-28 TCTC-6 DEM-16

*California: Leaning Democrat (from Too-Close-To-Call)

Connecticut: Leaning Democrat

Florida: Too-Close-To-Call

Georgia: Leaning Republican

Illinois: Leaning Republican

Maine: Leaning Republican

Maryland: Leaning Democrat

Massachusetts: Too-Close-To-Call

Minnesota: Too-Close-To-Call

New Mexico: Leaning Republican 

Ohio: Too-Close-To-Call 

Oregon: Too-Close-To-Call

New Hampshire: Leans Democrat

Pennsylvania: Leaning Republican

Rhode Island: Leans Democrat

Texas: Leaning Republican

Vermont: Too-Close-To-Call

Wisconsin: Leaning Republican
 
 
Likely/Safe Democrat: AR, CO, HI, NY
Likely/Safe Republican: AK, AZ, IA, MI, NV, OK, SC

GOVERNOR RACE CHART: REP-28 TCTC-7 DEM-15

Posted Sep 29, 2010 at 9:14 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

GOVERNOR RACE CHART 2010

Predicted Balance of Power: REP-28 TCTC-7 DEM-15

California: Too-Close-To-Call

Connecticut: Leaning Democrat

Florida: Too-Close-To-Call

Georgia: Leaning Republican

Illinois: Leaning Republican

Maine: Leaning Republican

Maryland: Leaning Democrat

Massachusetts: Too-Close-To-Call

Minnesota: Too-Close-To-Call

*New Mexico: Leaning Republican (from Too-Close-To-Call)

Ohio: Too-Close-To-Call  (from Leaning GOP)

Oregon: Too-Close-To-Call

New Hampshire: Leans Democrat

Pennsylvania: Leaning Republican

Rhode Island: Leans Democrat

Texas: Leaning Republican

Vermont: Too-Close-To-Call

Wisconsin: Leaning Republican
 
 
Likely/Safe Democrat: AR, CO, HI, NY
Likely/Safe Republican: AK, AZ, IA, MI, NV, OK, SC

Ohio Governor 2010: Dramatic Movement

Posted Sep 28, 2010 at 3:36 PM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

The political fortunes of one Democratic governor--Ted Strickland of Ohio--appears to reversing for the better. Three new polls show him within striking distance of his GOP opponent, John Kasich: Reuters/Ipsos poll shows the race virtually tied, with Kasich leading Strick among likely voters, 47% to 46% (the Republican held a +9% advantage in August). A new Fox News poll also shows a tight race, with leading by a scant +2%--45% to 43%. And a just released New York Times/CBS News poll shows Kasich with a 43% to 42% lead. Stay tuned.

GOVERNOR RACE CHART: REP-27 TCTC-8 DEM-15

Posted Sep 28, 2010 at 3:26 PM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

GOVERNOR RACE CHART 2010

Predicted Balance of Power: REP-27 TCTC-9 DEM-14

California: Too-Close-To-Call

Connecticut: Leaning Democrat

Florida: Too-Close-To-Call

Georgia: Leaning Republican

Illinois: Leaning Republican

Maine: Leaning Republican

*Maryland: Leaning Democrat (from TCTC)

Massachusetts: Too-Close-To-Call

Minnesotta: Too-Close-To-Call

New Mexico: Too-Close-To-Call

*Ohio: Too-Close-To-Call  (from Leaning GOP)

Oregon: Too-Close-To-Call

New Hampshire: Leans Democrat

Pennsylvania: Leaning Republican

Rhode Island: Leans Democrat

Texas: Leaning Republican

Vermont: Too-Close-To-Call

Wisconsin: Leaning Republican
 
 
Likely/Safe Democrat: AR, CO, HI, NY
Likely/Safe Republican: AK, AZ, IA, MI, NV, OK, SC

GOVERNOR RACE CHART: REP-28 TCTC-8 DEM-14

Posted Sep 28, 2010 at 2:10 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

GOVERNOR RACE CHART 2010

Predicted Balance of Power: REP-28 TCTC-8 DEM-14

California: Too-Close-To-Call

Connecticut: Leaning Democrat

Florida: Too-Close-To-Call

Georgia: Leaning Republican

Illinois: Leaning Republican

Maine: Leaning Republican

Maryland: Too-Close-To-Call

Massachusetts: Too-Close-To-Call

Minnesotta: Too-Close-To-Call

New Mexico: Too-Close-To-Call

Ohio: Leaning Republican

Oregon: Too-Close-To-Call

New Hampshire: Leans Democrat

Pennsylvania: Leaning Republican

Rhode Island: Leans Democrat

Texas: Leaning Republican

Vermont: Too-Close-To-Call

Wisconsin: Leaning Republican
 
 
Likely/Safe Democrat: AR, CO, HI, NY
Likely/Safe Republican: AK, AZ, IA, MI, NV, OK, SC

CA Governor 2010: Too-Close-To-Call

Posted Sep 22, 2010 at 2:00 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

A Public Policy Polling survey in California reports that Democrat Jerry Brown now leads Republican Meg Whitman in the race for governor, 47% to 42%.

PollTrack Moves The Race From Leaning Republican to Too-Close-To-Call

Georgia Governor 2010: Slight GOP Advantage

Posted Sep 20, 2010 at 2:16 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

A SurveyUSA poll in the Georgia U.S. Senate race reports that Republican candidate Nathan Deal holds a considerable lead among likely voters over Democratic challenger and former Gov. Roy Barnes, 49% to 38%, with Libertarian candidate John Monds at 9%. Another poll, by InsiderAdvantage/WSB-TV poll finds former Barnes tied with Deal in the race for governor, 42% to 42%.

PollTrack Rates The Race Leaning Republican

Nevada Governor 2010: Likely Republican

Posted Sep 17, 2010 at 2:16 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

A Las Vegas Review-Journal/Mason-Dixon poll in the gubernatorial race in Nevada reports that Republican Brian Sandoval holds a considerable +16% lead over Democrat lead Rory Reid, 52% to 36%.

PollTrack Rates The Race Likely Republican

CA Governor 2010: Republican Has Slight Edge

Posted Sep 14, 2010 at 1:55 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

A just released SurveyUSA poll in California reports that Republican Meg Whitman leads Democrat Jerry Brown in the race for governor by a modest margin, 47% to 40%.

 PollTrack Rates The Race Leans Republican

Ohio Governor 2010: Leaning Red

Posted Sep 08, 2010 at 1:25 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

A new Columbus Dispatch poll in Ohio reports that Republican John Kasich leads incumbent Democratic Gov. Ted Strickland by a commanding +12% in the race for governor, 49% to 37%.

 

PollTrack Rates The Race Leans Republican

NY Gov. 2010: Safe Democrat

Posted Sep 03, 2010 at 1:51 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

A Quinnipiac poll in New York reports that incumbent Democratic Attorney General Andrew Cuomo holds a commanding lead over either of his Republican rivals for governor: He bests Republican Rick Lazio, 57% to 25% and tops Carl Paladino, 60% to 23%.


PollTrack Rates The Race Safe Democrat

Nevada Governor 2010: Likely Republican

Posted Sep 02, 2010 at 1:39 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

A just released Las Vegas Review-Journal/Mason-Dixon poll in Nevada reports that Republican Brian Sandoval holds a considerable lead over Democrat Rory Reid in the race for governor among likely voters, 53% to 31%.

PollTrack Rates The Race Likely Republican

 

Michigan Governor 2010: Looks Like A GOP Take Over

Posted Aug 30, 2010 at 2:30 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

It looks like the governorship in Michigan is headed for a GOP take over. A new EPIC/MRA poll in the state reports that Republican Rick Snyderholds a commanding lead over Democrat Virg Bernero in the race for governor, 51% to 29%.

PollTrack Rates The Race Likely Republican

Georgia Governor 2010: Close

Posted Aug 27, 2010 at 1:57 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

A new InsiderAdvantage/WSB-TV poll in Georgia reports that Republican Nathan Deal holds a +4% lead over former Democratic Gov. Roy Barnes in the race for governor, 45% to 41%.

PollTrack Rates The Race Leaning Republican

Nevada Governor 2010: Likely Republican

Posted Aug 20, 2010 at 12:53 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

A just released Las Vegas Review-Journal/Mason-Dixon poll in Nevada reports that Republican Brian Sandoval holds a big, +16% lead over Democrat Rory Reid in the race for governor, 52% to 36%.

PollTrack Rates The Race Likely Republican

Colorado Governor 2010: Democrat In Lead

Posted Aug 13, 2010 at 2:11 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

A just released Public Policy Polling survey in Colorado suggests that Democrat John Hickenlooper holds a strong lead over his Republican challenger, Dan Maes in the race for governor, 50% to 38%. The prospect of a likely third party rung by Tom Tancredo improves the Democrat's standing even more: Hickenlooper's lead grows to +25%, with Hickenlooper at 48%, followed by Tancredo at 23% and Maes at 22%.

PollTrack Rates The Race Leans Democrat

Rhode Island Governor: Tied Up

Posted Aug 12, 2010 at 1:37 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

A just released Brown University poll reports that Democrat Frank Caprio and former U.S. Senator and independent candidate Lincoln Chafee are statistically tied in the race for governor. The Democrat holds a slight lead in this very Democratic state with 28%, followed by Chaffee at 27%, and Republican John Robitaille at 8%.

FL Governor 2010: Tight Race

Posted Aug 04, 2010 at 1:32 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

A Quinnipiac poll in Florida reports a very close three-way race for governor between Democrat Alex Sink, and either potential Republican candidate, Rick Scott or Bill McCollum, and independent candidate Bud Chiles. Scott leads the pack at 29%, followed by Sink at 27% and Chiles 14%; McCollum would lead with 27%, followed by Sink at 26%, and Chiles at 14%.

NY Gov. 2010: Safe Democrat

Posted Jul 30, 2010 at 12:54 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

A new Quinnipiac poll in New York reports that incumbent Democratic Attorney General Andrew Cuomo maintains a 69% approval rating. He beats either possible Republican gubernatorial challengers by wide margins: Cuomo is ahead of Republican by a whopping +30%, 56% to 26%, and bests Carl Paladino by the same margin, 55% to 25%.

 

PollTrack Rates The Race Safe Democrat

 

MD Governor 2010: Too-Close-To-Call

Posted Jul 30, 2010 at 12:54 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

In yet another sign of a potentially close race in Maryland, a newGonzales Research poll Incumbent Democratic Gov. Martin O'Malley with a tiny lead over former Republican Gov. Robert Ehrlich (R) in a rematch of their race for governor four years ago, 45% to 42%.

 

PollTrack Rates The Race Too-Close-To-Call

CA Governor 2010: Republican Has Slight Edge

Posted Jul 20, 2010 at 2:11 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

A new SurveyUSA poll in California reports that Republican candidate Meg Whitman holds a +7% lead over former Democratic Governor Jerry Brown, 46% to 39%.

 

PollTrack Now Rates The Race Leaning Republican

MD Governor 2010: Incumbent Democrat Behind

Posted Jul 14, 2010 at 1:46 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

In what amounts to another incumbent in trouble with voters, a new Magellan Strategies survey in Maryland reports that former Republican Gov. Robert Ehrlich holds a slim +3% lead over Democratic incumbent Gov. Martin O'Malley in their re-match for governor, 46% to 43%. Another poll by Public Policy Polling survey in Maryland finds Democrat O'Malley with a small lead over Ehrlich, 45% to 42%.

PollTrack Rates The Race Too-Close-To-Call

Ohio Governor 2010: New Poll Shows Republican Ahead

Posted Jul 08, 2010 at 1:32 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

In the race for Ohio Governor, the latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey reports that Republican John Kasich holds a +7% lead over incumbent Democrat Ted Strickland, 47% to 40%. 3% of likely voters prefer another candidate, and 10% are undecided.

 

PollTrack Rates The Race Too-Close-To-Call

CA Governor 2010: Democrat Has Slight Edge

Posted Jul 05, 2010 at 4:45 PM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

According to new Reuters/Ipsos poll in California, the Democrat has a slight edge in the race for Governor. The survey reports that  Democrat Jerry Brown holds a +6% lead over Republican Meg Whitman, 45% to 39%.


PollTrack Rates The Race Too-Close-To-Call.

Ohio Governor 2010: Too Close To Call

Posted Jun 30, 2010 at 1:00 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

A Quinnipiac survey in Ohio reports a small lead for incumbent Democratic Gov. Ted Strickland over Republican challenger John Kasich, 43% to 38%. Another, contradictory, poll by Public Policy Polling survey shows Kasich with a small lead, 43% to 41%.

 

PollTrack Rates The Race Too Close To Call.

PA Governor: Republican In The Lead

Posted Jun 25, 2010 at 12:50 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

A new Public Policy Polling survey in Pennsylvania shows Republican Tom Corbett leading Democrat Dan Onorato in the race for governor, 45% to 35%.

 

PollTrack Continues To Rate The Race Too-Close-To-Call.

Oklahoma Governor: Likely Republican

Posted Jun 24, 2010 at 1:53 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

A Sooner Poll in Oklahoma reports that Republican Rep. Mary Fallin holds a solid lead in the race for governor over both possible Democratic rivals: She bests Democratics Drew Edmondson, 50% to 35%, and Jari Askins, 49% to 36%.

PollTrack Rates The Race Likely Republican

PollTrack Predictions: Today's Primary Races

Posted Jun 08, 2010 at 1:07 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

AR-U.S. Senate Democratic Primary Runoff: Sen. Blanche Lincoln vs Bill Halter. PollTrack Rates The Race Close With A Slight Edge to Halter.

CA-U.S. Senate Republican Primary: Carly Fiorina, Tom Campbell, Chuck Devore. PollTrack Rates the Race Likely Fiorina.

CA-Republican Gubernatorial Primary: PollTrack Rates The Race Likely Meg Whitman.

IA-Republican Gubernatorial Primary: Former Gov. Terry Branstad vs Bob Vander Plaats. PollTrack Rates The Race Close, With A Slight Lead For Branstad.

ME-Democratic and Republican Gubernatorial Primaries: PollTrack Rates BOTH Races Too-Close-To-Call.

NV-Republican Gubernatorial Primary: Incumbent Gov. Jim Gibbons vs. Brian Sandoval. PollTrack Rates The Race Leaning Sandoval.

NV-U.S. Senate Republican Primary: Sharron Angle, Sue Lowden and Danny Tarkanian. PollTrack Rates the Race Likely Lowden

SC-Republican Gubernatorial Primary: PollTrack Rates The Race Likely Nikki Haley.



CA Governor 2010: Field Poll Reports Meg Whitman With Big Lead

Posted Jun 07, 2010 at 1:27 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

The Field Poll in California reports that Meg Whitman now holds a 2 to 1 lead over Steve Poizer in the Republican gubernatorial primary--51% to 25%--with another 18% undecided. Another survey by Capitol Weekly/Probolsky Research tracking poll shows Whitman with a similar lead over Poizner, 48% to 20%.

PollTrack rates the race likely Whitman.

 

CA Governor 2010: Whitman Leads Republican Primary; Brown Leads Whitman In The General

Posted Jun 04, 2010 at 12:15 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

A new USC/Los Angeles Timesl in California reports that Meg Whitman holds a whopping 24 point lead over Steve Poizner in the Republican primary for governor, 53% to 29%. In a general election match up, Democrat Jerry Brown leads Whitman by si points, 44% to 38%.With a large number of undecided voters up for grabs, the race now appears to be too-close-to-call.

NY Gov. 2010: Democrat Cuomo WAY Ahead Of All Republican Challengers

Posted May 27, 2010 at 1:26 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

A new Siena Poll in New York reports that Democratic Attorney General Andrew Cuomo-- who just officially announced his candidacy for governor--holds a commanding lead over all three of his hypothetical Republican opponents: he beats likely GOP nominee Rick Lazio, 66% to 24%, Carl Paladino, 65% to 22%, and Steve Levy, 65% to 22%.

PollTrack Rates The Race Likely Democrat

CT Governor 2010: Democrats Leading

Posted May 20, 2010 at 12:12 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

Will Democrats flip the state house in Connecticut this year? The answer may be yes. A Rasmussen poll in the nutmeg state finds Democrat Ned Lamont ahead of Republican Thomas Foley in the race for governor, 42% to 35%. Another Democrat vying for the gubernatorial nomination, Dan Malloy, also leads Foley, 38% to 35%.

MD Governor 2010: Incumbent Democrat In The Lead

Posted May 16, 2010 at 11:20 PM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

A Washington Post poll reports that incumbent Democratic Governor Martin O'Malley leads former Republican Gov. Bob Ehrlich by +8% in a rematch of their 2006 race in Maryland, 49% to 41%.

 

Polltrack rates the race leaning Democrat.

The Week Ahead: Senate And Gubernatorial Race

Posted May 16, 2010 at 11:19 PM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

This week, PollTrack will devote it's coverage to upcoming and competitive U.S. Senate and gubernatorial races. We will resume regular coverage next Monday, 24 May.

CA Governor 2010: Meg Whitman Out Front in GOP Primary

Posted Apr 28, 2010 at 1:30 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

A new SurveyUSA poll in California reports that Meg Whitman trounces her opposition in the Republican gubernatorial primary: she leads Steve Poizner, 49% to 27%. Six other hypothetical primary challengers receive a combined total of 9% of primary voters; 15% of likely voters remain undecided.

 


 

MD Governor 2010: Incumbent Democrat In Trouble?

Posted Apr 27, 2010 at 1:25 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

After months of leading in the polls, is the incumbent Democratic Governor of Maryland in trouble? A new Rasmussen survey reports that Gov. Martin O'Malley edges former Republican Gov. Bob Ehrlich by a scant +3% in their repeat race for governor--47% to 44%.

CA Governor 2010: Democrat Takes Lead

Posted Apr 22, 2010 at 12:29 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

A just released Rasmussen survey in California reports that presumptive nominee Democratic Jerry Brown holds a +6% advantage over his hypothetical challenger, Republican Meg Whitman (R), 44% to 38%. A month ago, Brown and Whitman were tied at 40%.

Nevada 2010 Governor: Republican In The Lead

Posted Apr 15, 2010 at 1:49 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

A new Mason-Dixon poll in Nevada reports that presumptive Republican nominee, Brian Sandoval, leads Democrat  Rory Reid by a wide margin in the race for governor, 50% to 35%. PollTrack rates the race leaning Republican.

NY Gov. 2010: Democrat Cuomo Ahead Of All Republican Challengers

Posted Apr 14, 2010 at 12:55 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

A new Quinnipiac poll in New York reports that Democratic Attorney General Andrew Cuomo holds commanding leads against all of his hypothetical Republican challengers in the race for Governor: Cuomo bests Rick Lazio, 55% to 26%, Carl Paladino, 60% to 24%, and Democrat turned Republican Steve Levy, 57% to 24%. PollTrack rates the race safe Democrat.

Ohio Governor 2010: New Poll Shows Democrat Ahead

Posted Apr 12, 2010 at 2:12 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

A new DailyKos/Research 2000 survey in Ohio reports that incumbent Gov. Ted Strickland is ahead of his presumptive challenger Republican John Kasich in the race for governor, 45% to 40%, with 15% still undecided. With the race statistically close--and the undecided number high--PollTrack continues to rate the race too close to call.

CA Governor 2010: Another Poll Shows Meg Whitman Out Front

Posted Apr 07, 2010 at 12:23 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

A Los Angeles Times/USC poll in California reports that Republican gubernatorial candidate Meg Whitman--who continues to lead her GOP primary challenger Steve Poizner by a whopping 40 points--also bests the presumptive Democratic nominee Jerry Brownby a slight margin in a general election match up, 44% to 41%.

Are Democrats Gaining In Ohio?

Posted Apr 01, 2010 at 1:56 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

Are Democrats gaining in Ohio? A new Quinnipiac poll suggests that the answer may be yes. The survey finds that Democrats now lead in both the U.S. Senate and Governor's races. In hypothetical match ups in the Senate race, Democratic Lt. Gov. Lee Fisher leads Republican Rob Portman, 41% to 37%; Democratic Secretary of State Jennifer Brunner also edges Portman, albeit by a single point, 38% to 37%, a +6% gain over Quinnipiac's February poll. In the gubernatorial race, incumbent Democrat Ted Strickland leads Republican challenger John Kasich by +5%--43% to 38%.

Paterson Even More Unpopular In New York

Posted Mar 29, 2010 at 12:58 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

A new Marist Poll reports that the popularity incumbent New York Gov. David Paterson's has dropped to an even lower level since of series of scandals were revealed this winter: he now has just 17% favorable rating.Perhaps very good news for the Democratic party, Paterson announced recently that he would not seek reelection this November.

California Governor Most Unpopular In Polling History

Posted Mar 26, 2010 at 2:40 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

A new Field Poll reports that California Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger has the lowest approval rating in modern history, "including Gray Davis, who was ousted by Schwarzenegger in a popular uprising." 71% of California voters surveyed disapprove of Republican Schwarzenegger's handling of the job; 23 percent approve. s Field notes: "The low ratings are shared across all demographics including party affiliation, region of the state, age and race or ethnicity."

CA Governor 2010: Field Poll Reports Meg Whitman Out Front

Posted Mar 19, 2010 at 1:16 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

Meg Whitman appears to be doing very well in her bid to become California's next governor: a new Field Poll shows the GOP front runner with a enormous lead over Steve Poizner in the Republican primary race, 63% to 14%. After weeks of being behind in a hypothetical general election match up, Whitman now leads Democrat Jerry Brown, 46% to 43%.

FL Governor 2010: Republican With Solid Lead

Posted Mar 17, 2010 at 1:45 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

A new Public Policy Polling survey in Florida shows Republican Bill McCollum with a considerable +13%-lead over Democrat Alex Sink, 44% to 31%

TX Governor 2010: Republican Perry Leading By Slim Margin

Posted Mar 11, 2010 at 12:45 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

With the primaries over in Texas, Rasmussen reports that the incumbent Republican Governor Rick Perry leads his Democratic challenger, Bill White by a small margin: 49% to 43%. These numbers suggest that the race has tightened considerably in recent months.  

PollTrack Rating: Toss-Up

 

Siena Poll: NY Voters Want Peterson To Remain

Posted Mar 09, 2010 at 1:07 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

Contradicting a Quinnipiac poll released late last week, a new Siena Research Institute survey reports that "A clear majority of voters, 55%, would prefer Governor David Paterson serve the remainder of his term, compared to 37% who would like him to resign and allow Lt. Governor Richard Ravitch to serve as governor for the remainder of the year. And an even larger majority, 71 percent, would rather see the Governor finish his term, while 21 percent would like the State Legislature to move to impeach the Governor if he does not resign."

NY Gov. 2010: Voters Cooling on Paterson

Posted Mar 08, 2010 at 1:45 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

With even more harmful stories circulating last week about embattled NY Governor David Paterson, a new Quinnipiac poll reports that voters are now split 46% to 42% over whether Paterson should finish his term rather than resign. Just a few days earlier, Quinnipiac found, by a 61% to 31% margin, voters wanted Paterson serving to serve out his term. 

Most New Yorkers Want Gov. Paterson To Stay

Posted Mar 04, 2010 at 1:38 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

Despite being battered by a series of punishing news cycles, a new Quinnipiac poll in New York reports that 61% of voters want incumbent Democratic Governor David Paterson to finish out his term, this despite a dismal 24% approval rating and an increasing number of political figures calling for him to resign.

MD Governor 2010: Incumbent Democrat In Good Position

Posted Mar 02, 2010 at 1:57 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

According to a new Rasmussen Reports survey in Maryland, incumbent Democratic Governor Martin O'Malley leads former GOP Governor Bob Ehrlich (R) in a potential rematch of their 2006 race, 49% to 43%.

CA Gov. 2010: Whitman Leads GOP Pack, But Brown Ahead In The General

Posted Jan 27, 2010 at 1:15 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

According to the latest Field Poll in California, Meg Whitman leads challenger Steve Poizner in the Republican gubernatorial primary, 45% to 17%. But Democrat Jerry Brown handily beats Whitman in a general election match up, 46% to 36%. Brown leads Poizner by an even greater margin, 48% to 31%.

Is Ohio Trending Republican?

Posted Jan 22, 2010 at 1:36 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

Is Ohio--one of a handful of key bellwether states--trending Republican? A new Wenzel Strategies poll suggests that the answer may be yes. In the November's race for governor, Republican John Kasich leads incumbent Democratic Gov. Ted Strickland, 43% to 33%. In the U.S. Senate race, Republican Rob Portman bests Democrat Lee Fischer, 37% to 31%, and leads Democrat Jennifer Brunner (D), 40% to 35%.

CT Governor 2010: Democrats Ahead

Posted Jan 21, 2010 at 1:09 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

A Public Policy Polling survey in Connecticut suggestsd that it will be tough sailing for Republicans in the 2010 Governor's race in Connecticut: in hypothetical match ups, the poll finds three Democrats running--Susan Bysiewicz, Ned Lamont, and Dan Malloy--with solid leads over Republican contenders Michael Fedele and Tom Foley. Bysiewicz leads Foley 48% to 26% and Fedele 50% to 25%. Lamont and Malloy also hold double digit leads over their Republican rivals. A new Quinnipiac poll in Connecticut also finds  a Democratic lead in hypothetical matchups, but with the candidates FAR closer to each other: Lamont edges Foley, 38% to 36%, and beats Fedele, 41% to 32%. Malloy beats Foley, 37% to 33%, and leads Fedele, 37% to 31%.

CA Gov. 2010: Jerry Brown Leads The Pack

Posted Dec 18, 2009 at 1:12 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

According to a new Public Policy Institute of California survey, Democrat Jerry Brown leads all three potential Republican rivals in California's race for governor. Brown bests Republican Meg Whitman, 43% to 37%, Republican Tom Campbell, 46% to 34%, and Republican Steve Poizner, 47% to 31%. Whitman leads the Republican primary pack with 32%, followed by Campbell at 12% and Poizner at 8%.

NY Gov. 2010: Democrat Paterson Approval Higher

Posted Dec 16, 2009 at 1:44 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

According to several new polls, incumbent Democratic Gov. David Paterson's approval number is slowly but surely inching upward. A new Quinnipiac poll in New York, which mirrors the finding in a Siena Institute poll released yesteday, finds that Paterson's approval rate is now 40%, up from 30% in October. However, New York State Attorney General Andrew Cuomo (D) still leads Paterson, 60% to 23%, in a possible Democratic primary race for governor.

Ohio Governor: Are Democrats Loosing A Key Swing State?

Posted Dec 14, 2009 at 1:34 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

Are Democrats about to loose the highest office in one of the nation's most important swing states, Ohio? The answer, at this early stage, could be yes: "Unemployment in Ohio has jumped to 10.5%, the state is wrestling with an $851 million budget shortfall, and Governor Ted Strickland has proposed delaying a tax cut approved in 2005. Add it all together, and it’s a tough environment for the incumbent Democratic governor who now trails his expected general election opponent by nine percentage points in an early look at the 2010 race." In the poll, Republican John Kasich gets 48% of the vote while Strickland picks up just 39%. Three percent (3%) say they’d prefer a third-party candidate, and 11% are not sure who they would vote for. In September, the two men were essentially even.

NY Gov. 2010: Paterson Way Behind In Democratic Primary

Posted Nov 25, 2009 at 1:42 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

According to a new Marist institute survey, incumbent Governor David Psterson his way behind both his Democratic rivals--especially popular Attorney General Andrew Cuomo--and in hypothetical match ups with his Republican rivals: "Among Democrats statewide, 72% report they would support Cuomo if the Democratic primary were held today while just 21% say they would vote for Paterson . . . Former U.S. Representative Rick Lazio has made no bones about the fact that he wants to be the Republican nominee for governor.  But, how does he stack up against his possible, Democratic opponents?  If Andrew Cuomo were the Democratic nominee and the election were held today, Cuomo would defeat Lazio by an almost three-to-one margin.  Cuomo receives 69% of voters’ support to Lazio’s 24%.  When Lazio is pitted against Governor David Paterson, the race is more competitive.  In fact, voters divide.  44% of the electorate would back Paterson, and 44% would cast their ballot for Lazio.  12% are undecided.  Little has changed in both of these hypothetical matchups since Marist last asked about about them in mid-September.

MN Gov. 2010: Norm Coleman Favorite For MN GOP Nomination

Posted Nov 20, 2009 at 1:35 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

According to a poll by Rasmussen Reports, about half of Minnesota Republicans would back Republican former Sen. Norm Coleman, should he run for governor in 2010. Coleman--defeated for reelection to the US Senate earlier this year in a seven-month recount battle--has not indicated that he intends to run. But if he does, he starts with a huge lead over the rest of the GOP field among likely voters, with a whopping 50% of the vote. Second place, at 11% percent, goes to state Rep. Marty Seifert, who stepped down from his post as House minority leader to run for governor.

NY Gov. 2010: Democrat Paterson Now Behind ALL Hypothetical Challengers

Posted Nov 19, 2009 at 1:02 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

According to a new Siena Institute poll, incumbent Democratic NY Governor David Paterson has fallen behind all of his potential GOP challengers: "Less than one year before the 2010 elections and less than 10 months before the currently scheduled primary date, Governor David Paterson trails Attorney General Andrew Cuomo by nearly 60 points in a potential Democratic primary, trails former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani by more than 20 points, and for the first time trails former Congressman Rick Lazio by three points, according to a new Siena (College) Research Institute poll of registered voters. Of 26 potential candidates for statewide office next year that Siena tested – Republicans and Democrats, incumbents and challengers – only Cuomo and Senator Charles Schumer on the Democratic side and Giuliani and former Governor George Pataki on the Republican side have favorability ratings over 50 percent."


In the pending Democratic primary, Paterson fares even less well: “'While the Governor’s favorability rating saw slight improvement, no other measure of his electability increased noticeably. In a Democratic primary against Cuomo, Paterson fell even further behind, 75-16 percent, and in a general election matchup against Lazio, Paterson trails for the first time ever, albeit closely 42-39 percent. In the Democratic primary, Cuomo now has a two-to-one lead over Paterson among African American voters,'” said Siena pollster Steven Greenberg. 'While it’s true that the Governor’s new commercials had only been airing for less than a week while Siena was polling, it seems clear that he’s going to have to spend a lot of campaign funds very early to even have a chance of improving the measurements by which voters judge David Paterson.'”

NJ Gov. Corzine's Lack Of Popularity Sealed His Fate

Posted Nov 18, 2009 at 1:06 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

According to a newly released Rasmussen survey, "60% of New Jersey voters say most of Republican Chris Christie’s winning support last week came from those who were voting against his opponent, incumbent Democratic Governor Jon Corzine . . . [The poll] finds that just 22% think the Republican candidate won the race with support from those who were actually voting for him rather than against Corzine. 18% are not sure. When pressed for specifics, 45% of voters in the state say the primary reason Christie was elected governor was dissatisfaction with Corzine’s job performance. 27% think the economy was the main reason for Christie’s victory, while 16% point to a general desire for change.
Only five percent 5% name Christie’s campaign promises as the chief reason he was elected. 2% attribute victory to his record as a prosecutor."

CT Governor 2010: Jodi Rell Quits

Posted Nov 13, 2009 at 1:12 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

One reason why Republican Gov. Jodi Rell of CT has chosen not to seek reelection: recent polls show her vulnerable next year. A new Quinnipiac University Poll reports that "in an early look at the 2010 election for Connecticut Governor, Secretary of State Susan Bysiewicz runs best among possible Democratic challengers, trailing Republican incumbent Jodi Rell 46 - 40 percent . . . Gov. Rell leads 91 - 5 percent among Republicans and 56 - 26 percent among independent voters, while Bysiewicz leads 74 - 12 percent among Democrats. Businessman Ned Lamont trails Rell 53 - 33 percent and Stamford Mayor Dan Malloy loses 52 - 33 percent . . .  In a Democratic primary match up, Bysiewicz gets 26 percent to 23 percent for Lamont, with 9 percent for Malloy. No other contender tops 3 percent." Still with Rell under 50% in one match up and just grazing the halfway mark in two others, her numbers do not look particularly strong for reelection. 

VA Governor 2009: Obama Hurt Democrat Deeds

Posted Nov 11, 2009 at 1:09 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

Pollster Glen Bolger writes that President Obama became an important factor in voters' decision making in the 2009 Virginia gubernatorial race: "By a 55% to 35% margin, voters thought it was best to elect a governor who would serve as a check and balance to Obama . . . Concern about his policies overreaching permeated to a gubernatorial campaign and helped widen the size of McDonnell's win. It allowed the campaign to focus on issues that hadn't been working in recent years for Republican candidates. Concern about Obama's policies on spending, taxes, and jobs allowed McDonnell to thoroughly dominate those issues. The checks and balances message is a key one, but the bigger lesson about Obama's impact on Virginia is that his policies have put fiscal and economic messages back into play for Republicans."

AP Projection: Republican Chris Christie Wins In New Jersey

Posted Nov 03, 2009 at 2:10 PM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

The Associated Press projects Republican Chris Christie the winner over incumbent Democrat Jon Corzine in New Jersey's gubernatorial race.

Independent Voters In New Jersey Breaking For Republican

Posted Nov 03, 2009 at 12:09 PM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

Exit polls in New Jersey suggest that independent voters are breaking for Republican Chris Christie by a wide, +20%, margin over incumbent Democratic Governor Jon Corzine. Once again, these voters are behaving very differently from last year, where New Jersey independents supported President Obama by a considerable margin.

UPDATE: Christie appears to be winning independent voters by 25%

Exit Polls In New Jersey Suggest A Tight Race

Posted Nov 03, 2009 at 12:04 PM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

It looks like a long night in New Jersey as Exit Polls suggests a very tight race.

AP Projection: Republican Bob McDonnell Wins VA Gubernatorial Race

Posted Nov 03, 2009 at 11:56 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

The Associated Press projects that Republican Bob McDonnell has won the Virginia gubernatorial election over his Democratic opponent Creigh Deeds.

Exit Polls Suggest Independents Breaking For Republican In VA

Posted Nov 03, 2009 at 11:09 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

Early exit poll suggests that independent voters in Virginia are breaking for Republican Bob McDonnell by a wide margin--60% to 39%. If this trend holds, it is very bad news for Democrat Creigh Deeds.

Projection: Republican Bob McDonnell Leads In VA Gubernatorial Race

Posted Nov 03, 2009 at 11:02 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

As expected, CNN projects that Republican Bob McDonnell is leading the Virginia gubernatorial election over his Democratic opponent Creigh Deeds.

LIVE BLOG 7:00 PM EST TONIGHT Tuesday, 3 November

Posted Nov 02, 2009 at 3:44 PM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

PollTrack will be blogging live tonight, Election Night, tracking and interpreting results starting at 7:00 PM EST. So check in and stick with us for continuous coverage of the gubernatorial races in Virginia and, New Jersey,mayoral race in New York City, special election in NY-23, and the Maine "Gay Marriage" initiative and other races.

PollTrack FINAL Polling Average: A Summation

Posted Nov 02, 2009 at 11:16 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

Here is a brief summary of PollTrack's FINAL polling averages for five key races in tomorrow's Off-Year Election:

 

Maine Gay Marriage Referendum

Lead: FOR gay marriage--+2.7%

 

New Jersey Governor

Lead: Republican Chris Christie--+0.5%

 

Virginia Governor

Lead: Republican Bob McDonnell--+14.4%

 

NY-23 Special Election

Lead: Conservative Doug Hoffman--+8.0%


New York City Mayor

Lead: Independent Michael Bloomberg--+12.7%

 

 

NJ Governor 2009: Close, But PollTrack Final Average Still Shows GOP Lead

Posted Nov 02, 2009 at 9:54 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

PollTrack's FINAL average of polling in New Jersey for the 2009 gubernatorial race:

Jon Corzine (D, Incumbent): 41.8%

Chris Christie (R): 42.3%

Chris Daggett (I)L 10.5%

Lead: Republican Chris Christie--+0.5%

Check Back Late-Afternoon, Early-Evening For PollTrack's Final Poll Average In This Rac

VA Governor 2009: Final Average Shows Strong Republican Lead

Posted Nov 02, 2009 at 8:57 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

PollTrack's FINAL average of polling in Virginia for the 2009 gubernatorial race:

 Bob McDonnell (R): 55.0%

Creigh Deeds (D): 40.6%

Lead: Republican Bob McDonnell--+14.4%

NJ Governor 2009: Republican Christie's Lead Inceases Yet Again

Posted Nov 02, 2009 at 1:38 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

PollTrack's average of polling in New Jersey for the 2009 gubernatorial race:

Jon Corzine (D, Incumbent): 41.1%

Chris Christie (R): 42.8%

Chris Daggett (I)L 11.5%

Lead: Republican Chris Christie--+1.7%

Check Back Late-Afternoon, Early-Evening For PollTrack's Final Poll Average In This Race

VA Governor 2009: Republican McDonnell Far Ahead

Posted Nov 02, 2009 at 1:32 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

PollTrack's average of polling in Virginia for the 2009 gubernatorial race:

 Bob McDonnell (R): 54.0%

Creigh Deeds (D): 40.6%

Lead: Republican Bob McDonnell--+13.4%


Check Back Late-Afternoon, Early-Evening for PollTrack's Final Poll Average in Virginia. 

NJ Governor 2009: Christie Up Slightly, Still Razor Close

Posted Nov 01, 2009 at 2:44 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

PollTrack's average of polling in New Jersey for the 2009 gubernatorial race:

Jon Corzine (D, Incumbent): 41.6%

Chris Christie (R): 42.2%

Chris Daggett (I)L 10.6%

Lead: Republican Chris Christie--+0.6%

VA Governor 2009: Republican McDonnell Sailing To Victory

Posted Oct 30, 2009 at 6:18 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

PollTrack's average of polling in Virginia for the 2009 gubernatorial race:

 

Bob McDonnell (R): 54.6%

Creigh Deeds (D): 40.3%

Lead: Republican Bob McDonnell--+14.3%

NJ Governor 2009: A Dead Heat

Posted Oct 30, 2009 at 6:16 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

PollTrack's average of polling in New Jersey for the 2009 gubernatorial race:

Jon Corzine (D, Incumbent): 41.8%

Chris Christie (R): 42.0%

Chris Daggett (I)L 11.8%

Lead: Republican Chris Christie--+0.2%

VA Governor 2009: Democratic Deeds Campaign Appears To Collapse

Posted Oct 27, 2009 at 6:00 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

With a week to go until Election 2009, PollTrack's aggregate poll numbers suggest that the campaign of Democrat Creigh Deeds is collapsing in Virginia. Some polls now show Republican Bob McDonnell ahead by as much as +19%. Our average gives the GOP candidate an aggregate lead of +13.8%, 55.4% to 41.6%.

NJ Governor 2009: Republican Christie Appears to Retake Momentum

Posted Oct 27, 2009 at 3:17 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

With the race drawing down to a tie in recent weeks--and Democratic incumbent Jon Corzine showing some momentum in recemt days--New Jersey's upcoming gubernatorial race appears to be shifting back to Republican Christ Christie. PollTrack's polling average has the race with the GOP candidate leading, 41.2% to 39.7%, for an aggregate lead of +1.5% (up quite a bit from the 0.25% lead earlier in the week). More recent polls show Christie with an even bigger lead, on average 2.5%. In the end, it could all come down to turnout.

VA Governor 2009: PollTrack Average Has Republican Up by Wide Margin

Posted Oct 27, 2009 at 2:22 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

As of this morning--with one week to go--PollTrack's polling average in the race for Virginia Governor has Republican Bob McDonnell leading Democrat Creigh Deeds by a wide margin--54.3% t0 41.6%--and aggregate advantage of +12.7%.

NJ Governor 2009: A Squeaker?

Posted Oct 26, 2009 at 1:52 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

A good deal can change in politics in a month. PollTrack's polling average for New Jersey's upcoming gubernatorial race suggests an upset in the making. Throughout the year, Republican Chris Christie led incumbent Democratic Jon Corzine by a significant margin. Now, it looks like Corzine has the momentum and may squeak through on 3 November. Why? Mostly the continued strength of third-party candidate Chris Daggett, who now polls as much as 20% in some pols and appears to be taking away more votes from Corzine than Christie. Another factor: the relative success of Corzine's spate of negative and clearly effective TV ads against his Republican challenger. As of Sunday night, Christie leads Christie by the hair's breadth--39.2% to 39%--for a lead of just +0.25%. (Daggett now pulls on average, 16% of the vote)

VA Governor 2009: PollTrack Average Has Republican up by 13.5%

Posted Oct 22, 2009 at 2:44 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

PollTrack polling average for the upcoming Virginia gubernatorial race has Republican Bob McDonnell up by a whopping +13.5%--54% to 40.5%--over his Democratic challenger, Creigh Deeds.

VA Governor 2009: Democratic Creigh Deeds Well Behind

Posted Oct 20, 2009 at 1:57 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

PollTrack's poll average in Virginia's upcoming gubernatorial race suggests that the GOP candidate remains in a solid position: Republican Bob McDonnell bests Democrat Creight Deeds by +10.5%--47.5% to 37.0%. A month ago, the race had tightened considerably; now it appears that Deeds cannot make up a deficit that places him 13% BELOW the 50% mark.

NJ Governor 2009: Corzine Even With Christie

Posted Oct 14, 2009 at 1:49 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

After trailing for months, Democratic Gov. Jon Corzine has now pulled within one point of Republican challenger Chris Christie, 40% to 39%, with independent candidate Chris Daggett drawing 13% support, according to a new Public Policy Polling survey in New Jersey: "It was thought that Corzine's only chance at winning was to make voters dislike Christie even more than him, but he actually has seen a gain in his favorability over the last month. While a majority of voters still don't care for him the 37/55 spread is a whole lot better than the 32/60 of a month ago." A new Quinnipiac poll in New Jersey similarly finds Christie with a one point lead, 41% to 40%, with independent Christopher Daggett at 14%. PollTrack believes that the race will come down to Daggett's supporters. If they defect, Christie may well be the beneficiary. If they hold firm, the incumbent could squeak through. Stay tuned, especially to Daggett's numbers as we approach Election Day.

VA Governor 2009: Republican Maintains Solid Lead

Posted Oct 12, 2009 at 1:49 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

Commensurate with all other rect polling in Virginia's 2009 gubernatorial race, Republican Bob McDonnell continues to hold a solid lead over his Democratic opponent, according to a new Mason-Dixon poll: McDonnell leads Creigh Deeds, 48% to 40% with 12 % undecided. "The poll suggests that McDonnell is heading into the final three weeks of the race largely unscathed from Deeds' continuing focus on McDonnell's controversial 1989 law-school thesis. Further, the poll depicts an electorate, perhaps because of continuing economic anxiety and contentious policy debates in Washington and Richmond, cooling to the dominant Democratic establishment."

NJ Democrat Gov. Another Poll Shows Incumbent Democrat Corzine Ahead

Posted Oct 09, 2009 at 2:36 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

Yet another poll, this one a Democracy Corps poll supported by the Democratic party, shows incumbent Jon Corzine ahead in the upcoming race for New Jersey Governor: "Corzine has now moved slightly ahead of Republican Chris Christie, after pulling into a statistical dead heat two weeks ago. Corzine now leads by 3 points, garnering 41 percent of the vote to Christie’s 38 percent and independent Chris Daggett’s 14 percent. Importantly, Corzine has now consolidated the vote among his base, crossing the 80 percent threshold among Democrats and winning more Democrats than Christie does Republicans for the first time. Christie’s standing has declined markedly in the last two weeks, with 42 percent now rating the Republican unfavorably versus just 30 percent who rate him favorably. This net -12 point favorability rating is a 10-point decline from two weeks ago. Corzine is rated favorably by 37 percent of voters and unfavorably by 46 percent, for a net favorability rating of -9 points."

If these results were to be confirmed by independent pollsters, this would be big news, indeed. But so far, Christie still seems to hold onto a very slim lead. A SurveyUSA poll released last night reported that the Republican candidate remains barely ahead of Corzine, 43% to 40%, within the margin of sampling error. Independent Chris Daggett gets 14%.

NJ Governor 2009: Poll Reports Corzine Is Gaining Ground

Posted Oct 07, 2009 at 1:38 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

Is incumbent Democratic Governor Jon Corzine closing the gap in New Jersey after a year of being consistently behind in the polls? A new Fairleigh Dickinson-PublicMind Poll would appear to suggest a possible turn around for the embattled Democrat. The survey finds that Corzine now edges ahead of his Republican challenger, Chris Christie, 44% to 43%, within the poll's margin of error. The poll is somewhat irregular in that it does not ask respondents specifically about their support of the independent candidates in the race. Thus, the poll, reports: "Another 4% volunteer they will vote for independent Chris Daggett and 5% say they are undecided. When Daggett's name is read in an interview along with Corzine's and Christie's name, Corzine leads Christie 38% to 37% and Daggett gets 17% of the vote."

A new Rasmussen survey still show's Christie ahead but by a narrower margin. The poll reports that Corzine has pulled to within three percentage points of Christie after trailing his GOP challenger for months: Christie is at 47%; Corzine 44% and Daggett at 6%. 3% remain undecided. PollTrack needs more information in order to determine if the overall dynamics of the race have actually changed. With more polling coming later in the week, will a new trend for Democratic victory emerge? Stay tuned.  

VA Governor 2009: Democratic Brand Suffering As Republican Maintains Large Lead

Posted Oct 06, 2009 at 2:56 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

While the gap has narrowed slightly, SurveyUSA reports that Republican Bob McDonnell maintains a large lead over Democrat Creigh Deeds--a lead which places him well over the all-important 50% mark: "In the election for Virginia Governor . . . one month until votes are counted, Republican Bob McDonnell defeats Democrat Creigh Deeds, 54% to 43%. Compared to an identical SurveyUSA poll one week ago, Deeds has gained ground among women, among voters age 50 to 64, and in Southeast VA. In 4 identical SurveyUSA tracking polls conducted for WJLA-TV in Washington DC and WDBJ-TV in Roanoke, McDonnell has polled at 55%, 54%, 55%, 54%. Deeds has polled at 40%, 42%, 41%, 43%."

Even more troubling for the Democrats, Republicans also maintain considerable leads (by similar margins) in two other statewide races: In the contest for Lieutenant Governor, incumbent Republican Bill Bolling leads Democrat Jody Wagner, former Treasurer of VA and VA Secretary of Finance, 57% to 40%. In the Attorney general contest, Republican state senator Ken Cuccinelli bests Democrat state representative Steve Shannon 53% to 43%.

NJ Governor 2009: Can Democrat Corzine Win?

Posted Oct 05, 2009 at 2:05 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

Is Democrat Jon Corzine really closing the gap in his upcoming gubernatorial race in New Jersey against GOP challenger Chris Christie? Can he actually come out ahead on Election Day. The answer, PollTrack believes, is possibly, but that thus far Corzine remains stuck in the same position he's been in since the start of his campaign in January 2009 on: at or below the 40% mark, with little or no movement upward. Even with the recent narrowing of the gap recorded in some surveys, it been a slight decline in Christie's support and not a significant uptick in support for Corzine that accounts for most of the decrease between the two candidates.

In a telling analysis of the race, veteran political analyst Stuart Rothenberg observes of the recent narrowing of the polls: "Corzine's chances of winning re-election now are no better than they were a month ago. The governor continues to be stuck between 38 percent and 42 percent in the ballot test, where he has been for many months, and the fundamentals of the race continue to favor the Republican challenger. Corzine was at 39 percent among likely voters in the newest Quinnipiac survey, not much different from his 37 percent showing at the end of August, his 40 percent showing in early August or his 38 percent showing in mid-July. The most recent Quinnipiac poll showed Christie leading Corzine by 4 points because the Republican's vote has slipped from 46 percent or 47 percent in other Quinnipiac surveys to 43 percent. In turn, Independent candidate Chris Daggett's number in the ballot test has risen to 12 percent in the most recent Quinnipiac poll, up from the 7 percent to 9 percent he had been drawing in other recent Quinnipiac surveys. There is no statistically significant movement from late August to late September among likely independent voters."

PollTrack will continue to cover the race very closely in the coming weeks, in our countdown to Election 2009.

NJ Governor 2009: Incumbent Democrat Corzine Gains Ground

Posted Oct 02, 2009 at 1:37 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

It looks like the race for Governor of New Jersey, that only a month ago appeared to be an easy victory for Republican challenger Chris Christie, is going down to the wire: a new Quinnipiac poll reports that incumbent Democratic Gov. Jon Corzine has cut challenger Chris Christie's (R) lead in half and now trails by just four points, 43% to 39%, among likely voters. Independent candidate Christopher Daggett gets 12% with 6% undecided. A forthcoming DailyKos/Research 2000 poll shows the race tightening, as well, with Christie now leading by just four points, 46% to 42% with independent Chris Daggett getting 7% support.

Another just released poll reports that Corzine is closing in fast and dramatically: The latest Monmouth University/ Gannett New Jersey Poll finds the "Democrat trailing the Republican by just 3 percentage points among likely voters, down from an 8 point disadvantage last month and 14 points in August. The reasons for this movement include a more energized Democratic base and shifting preferences of independent women. Currently, Chris Christie leads Jon Corzine by 43% to 40% among likely voters, with independent Chris Daggett at 8%. When the vote preferences of all registered voters are taken into account, the race is tied with Corzine at 40% and Christie at 40%. Partisan support has remained relatively stable over the past month. Corzine has a 75% to 8% advantage among likely Democratic voters while Christie enjoys an 86% to 7% lead among likely Republicans and a 49% to 28% edge among likely independents. However, the poll indicates that more Democrats have become interested in the outcome of this campaign and thus are now more likely to vote than they were just a month ago"

The BIG question for PollTrack: how well will Daggett do in the end, a candidate who draws far more votes from Corzine than Christie. If, as history often suggests, Democrats abandon Daggett and come home to the party, the race could easily draw down to a tie, or even a slight lead for Corzine.

VA Governor 2009: Is Democratic Creigh Deeds In Trouble?

Posted Oct 01, 2009 at 2:29 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

According to one new poll by SurveyUSA, one of the most accurate pollsters in the 2008 election cycle, Democrat Creigh Deeds is in serious trouble in his quest to defeat Republican Bob McDonnell in November's race for Virginia governor. Just weeks ago, it appeared the race was tightening. Another recent survey by Public Policy Polling suggested that the Democrat had narrowed his deficit to 4%. Yet, as of yesterday. SurveyUSA gives McDonnell a whopping +14% lead over Creigh Deeds, 55% to 41%, in the race for governor. A just released Rasmussen poll splits the difference, so to speak, finding a +9% lead for McDonnell, 51% to 42%. Still, the poll indicates that the Republican's position has improved over the past few weeks, yet another red flag for Democrat Deeds.

VA Governor 2009: Race Continues to Tighten

Posted Sep 28, 2009 at 1:30 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

A new Insider Advantage survey in Virginia's gubernatorial upcoming race shows that things are continuing to tighten: Republican Bob McDonnell bests Democrat Creight Deeds by +4%--48% to 44%.

Approval for NY Democratic Gov. Paterson Falls To 20%

Posted Sep 23, 2009 at 1:52 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

Wondering how poorly New York Democratic Governor David Paterson is doing with voters in his state? What is undoubtedly one of the lowest approval ratings for a sitting governor, only 20% of New Yorkers think he is performing well in office while 34% say he is doing a poor job.  As a recently released Marist Poll concludes: "Paterson has had no luck climbing out of the political basement. In Marist’s June survey, the governor garnered a 21% approval rating.  On month prior, he chalked up 19%. The news for Governor Paterson gets even worse.  When looking at party, he is even scraping bottom with his fellow Democrats.  Just 24% of Democrats say he is doing well as governor.  12% of Republicans and 22% of non-enrolled voters agree."

NJ Governor 2009: Corzine Narrows The Gap (Slightly)

Posted Sep 22, 2009 at 1:03 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

As of Monday evening, it appears that incumbent Democratic Governor Jon Corzine has narrowed the gap slightly with his Republican challenger, Chris Christie, in the upcoming race in New Jersey. Christie now leads by +7%--44.5% to 37.5%, with independent candidate Chris Daggett at 8.5%--a modest improvement from a month ago. The good news for Corzine: his standing has improved and Daggett, whose momentum shows signs of slowing down, seems to be taking more votes away from the Democrat than the Republican. The bad news for Corzine: he is well below the 40% mark, a very dismal place for an incumbent to find himself.

VA Governor 2009: Race Is Tightening

Posted Sep 21, 2009 at 1:32 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

As of Sunday evening, the PollTrack polling average in this year's gubernatorial race in Virginia suggests that Democrat Creigh Deeds has made modest inroads against his GOP challenger, Bob McDonnell. The Republican now leads by +4.5%--47.8% to 43.3%--a more than fifty percent drop in support for McDonnell from a month ago. A just released Washington Post poll has even better news for the Democrat: "Dramatic shifts among independent female voters and Northern Virginians over the past month have propelled" Deeds to within four points of Bob McDonnell (R) in the race for Virginia governor, 51% to 47%.Stay tuned.

NJ Governor 2009: Corzine Inches Slightly Closer to Republican Chris Christie

Posted Sep 15, 2009 at 1:06 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

As of Sunday night, PollTrack's aggregate of polls in New Jersey's upcoming race for Governor suggests that incumbent Democrat Jon Corzine is doing slightly better against his Republican challenger Chris Christie. Christie leads Corzine, 46.6% to 39.0%, an aggregate lead of +7.6%, considerably down from his +10% lead of a month ago. Still, with Corzine way below 50% (he doesn't even graze the 40% mark), his battle remains uphill, to say the least.

VA Governor 2009: Democratic Creigh Deeds In Serious Trouble

Posted Sep 14, 2009 at 1:41 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

With PollTrack's aggregate numbers in Virginia's upcoming gubernatorial race indicating a substantial Republican advantage--Bob McDonnell now leads Democratic Creigh Deeds, 51.3% to 42%--the Democrats path has grown narrower. With six week to go, the GOP candidate is now well over the KEY 50%, with an aggregate lead of +9.3%. Not an insurmountable lead, but daunting nevertheless.

An individual poll from one of the most accurate pollsters in the 2008 Election Cycle--SurveyUSA--suggests an even more dire situation for Deeds and for Democrats in general in the state: "In statewide elections in Virginia today, two months until votes are counted, Republicans sweep, taking the statehouse away from the Democrats and holding the Lieutenant Governor and Attorney General offices . . . For Governor, McDonnell appears undamaged and today defeats Deeds. Compared to an identical SurveyUSA poll released five weeks ago, the race has tightened slightly, not dramatically. There is movement to Deeds in the Washington DC suburbs, where a 15-point McDonnell lead has evaporated, but there is no GOP erosion in the rest of the state. There is softening in McDonnell's support among voters age 50+, but that is offset by gains for McDonnell among voters age 35 to 49. Of those who voted for Barack Obama in 2008 and who are judged by SurveyUSA to be likely to vote in November 2009, 13% cross-over for McDonnell, twice the number of McCain voters who cross-over for Deeds." McDonnell holds a +12% lead in the survey. 

NJ Governor 2009: Corzine Improving His Standing

Posted Sep 11, 2009 at 1:50 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

Two new polls suggest slightly contrary views of this year's gubernatorial race in New Jersey. One, from Democracy Corps (D) poll, reports that Republican challenger Chris Christie holds a scant three-point lead on Democratic Gov. Jon Corzine, 41% to 38%, with independent Chris Daggett receiving 10% of the vote. The poll also finds that Corzine's standing has improved over the past month, with his favorable rating now at 36% from %st month (still a somber number for an incumbent seeking reeelection). Yet, an new Rasmussen Reports poll shows Christie with a healthier eight point lead--46% to 38%.

NJ Governor 2009: Corzine Continues to Trial Republican Chris Christie

Posted Sep 09, 2009 at 1:39 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

PollTrack's poll average for the gubernatorial race in New Jersey suggests that Democratic incumbent Jon Corzine still has his work cut out for him, though the race has grown considerably closer and his opponent Chris Christie does not come close to the 50% mark. As of Sunday night, Republican Christie leads Corzine 47% to 39.5% for an aggregate lead of +7.5%.

VA Governor 2009: Republican McDonnell Maintains Healthy Lead

Posted Sep 08, 2009 at 1:25 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

PollTrack's polling average for the gubernatorial race in Virginia, now just two months away, suggests that Republican Bob McDonnell remains in a very strong position. As of Sunday evening, McDonnell leads his Democratic challenger R. Creigh Deeds 51.3% to 42%,for a solid lead of +9.3 points. Significantly, McDonnell has remained at or above the all-important 50% mark for months.

50% of South Carolina Voters Want Sanford To Go

Posted Sep 07, 2009 at 1:23 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

As the specter of impeachment proceedings rises, exactly one half of South Carolina voters want Governor Mark Sanford, embattled in a sex scandal, to go. 50% responding to the survey said they were for Sanford's resignation; 37% believed he should remain in office; and 14% had no opinion.

VA Governor 2009: Race Tightening?

Posted Sep 04, 2009 at 1:50 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

According to one survey, the race for Virginia Governor has tightened up considerably over the past month, with Republican Bob McDonnell "now leading Creigh Deeds 49% to 42%. A PPP survey released in early August had the contest at 51% to 37%. The main reason for the narrowing is increased interest in the election among Democratic voters. While we were looking at an electorate for this fall that supported John McCain by an 11 point margin a month ago, that’s now narrowed to 4 points as more Obama supporters express their intention to vote in the off year election. The key to this race continues to be the significant imbalance among independent voters. They support McDonnell by a margin of 60% to 29%. That’s been a trend in our polls, as the Republican held leads of 19 and 21 points with those voters in our July and August surveys. Attacks on McDonnell do appear to be having some effect: his favorability has seen a slight decline from 54/26 a month ago to now 53/31. Deeds’ numbers are now 47/35, relatively similar to 43/32 on the previous survey." Yet, another, even more recent poll by Rasmussen, indicates that little has changed, with McDonnell's lead at a solid +9%--51% to 42%.

NJ Governor 2009: Quinnipiac Says Corzine Has Not Narrowed The Gap

Posted Sep 02, 2009 at 1:34 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

A new poll by Quinnipiac University suggests that Democratic incumbent Governor Jon Corzine has NOT narrowed the gap with his Republican challenger in New Jersey: "Corzine is losing the battle of the attack ads in his campaign for reelection and now trails Republican challenger Christopher Christie 47% to 37% among likely voters, with 9% for independent candidate Christopher Daggett . . . . This compares to a 46% to 40% Christie lead, with 7% for Daggett, in an August 11 survey . . . Corzine leads 74% to 15% among Democratic likely voters, with 7% for Daggett. Christie leads 86% to 8% among Republicans, with 4% for Daggett, and 46% to 30% among independent voters, with 16% for Daggett."

2009 Election Update: New Jersey Getting Tighter

Posted Aug 31, 2009 at 1:00 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

The race for Governor in New Jersey has grown much closer in recent days according to PollTrack's polling average in the state. For months, Republican challenger Chris Christie has been leading incumbent Democratic Governor Jon Corzine by ten points or more. Now Christie's lead has been cut in half--48% to 42.5%, for an aggregate lead of +5.5%. One just released survey, by Democracy Corps, reports an even closer race, with Christie leading Corzine by just two points, 43%-41%, compared with the Republican's five-point lead two weeks ago.

New Jersey Governor 2009: Corzine Does Slighlty Better Against Christie

Posted Aug 20, 2009 at 1:36 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

According to Democratic sponsored poll, incumbent Governor Jon Corzine has improved his standing against Republican challenger Chris Christie in New Jersey's upcoming governor's race. While PollTrack's average has Christie leading by about +11%--49.3% to 38.0%, a new GQR survey shows the race much closer, with the Republican leading, 43% to 37%.

New York 2010: Cuomo Crushes Paterson In Democratic Primary

Posted Aug 19, 2009 at 12:48 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

According to a new Quinnipiac University poll, NY State Attorney General Andrew Cuomo would crush incumbent Governor David Paterson in the 2010 Democratic gubernatorial primary: The poll finds Cuomo trouncing Paterson (D) in a possible gubernatorial primary, 61% to 15%. In general election match ups, Republican Rudy Giuliani leads Paterson, 53% to 33%, while Cuomo beats Giuliani, 48% to 39%.

Mass Governor In Political Free Fall

Posted Aug 17, 2009 at 2:19 PM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

The latest polling news is dire for the incumbent Massachusetts Democratic Governor in next year's reelection race: "The latest quarterly poll from MassInsight, a nonprofit research institute, spells more bad political news for Governor Deval L. Patrick: His job-approval numbers have plunged to levels not seen in decades for a Massachusetts governor. In a survey of 445 residents, taken last month and released this week, only 19 percent of respondents gave him a positive job rating, while 77 percent rated it fair or poor. One percent said he was doing an excellent job. Those numbers are significantly worse than last month's Globe poll, which also found him to be struggling politically."

WASHINGTON POST Poll: Republican Has Clear Lead in 2009 VA Governor's Race

Posted Aug 17, 2009 at 2:03 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

A new Washington Post poll suggests that the Republican candidate for Governor in Virginia, Bob McDonnell has a clear lead over his Democratic opponent, R. Creigh Deeds: "McDonnell is favored over Deeds among all registered voters, 47 to 40 percent, and is up by an even steeper margin, 54 to 39 percent, among those who say they are certain to vote in November. In vote-rich Northern Virginia, where President Obama and other successful Democrats have won large majorities, the two run about even, 45 percent for Deeds to 42 percent for McDonnell among all registered voters. Even in the innermost Washington suburbs -- which the Democrat from rural Bath County won handily in his party's primary -- the candidates are running about even. McDonnell, who lives outside Richmond, leads by nine points in the rest of the state. McDonnell's advantage in a race being watched nationally as an early electoral test for Obama serves as a warning sign for Democrats, who are eager to hold on to the governor's mansion in what has become a crucial swing state."

2009 Election Update: Virginia--Republican Expands Lead

Posted Aug 13, 2009 at 2:23 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

According to a new Rasmussen survey, Republican Bob McDonnell has expanded his lead over Democrat Creigh Deeds in Virginia's Gubernatorial race: "Republican candidate Robert F. McDonnell has opened a nine-point lead over Democrat R. Creigh Deeds in the race for governor in Virginia. {The latest] survey of Virginia voters finds McDonnell leading Deeds 47% to 38%. Three percent (3%) prefer some other candidate, and 12% are undecided. These figures reflect an improvement for McDonnell. A month ago, the GOP hopeful led by just three percentage points. Since then, he has gained three percentage points of support while Deeds has lost three percentage points.

2009 Election Update: New Jersey

Posted Aug 12, 2009 at 1:23 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

Overall, things continue to look bleak for incumbent Democratic Governor Jon Corzine in his race against Republican challenger Chris Christie. The latest PollTrack average in the state shows the GOP candidate with a whopping +12.1% lead: 50.3% to 38.2%. Even more daunting for Corzine: Christie has jumped over the all-important 50% threshold. (Still, the latest Quinnipiac Poll suggests a slight uptick for Cprzine; it has Christie leading by +9%, 51% to 42%.)

2009 Election Update: Virginia

Posted Aug 10, 2009 at 3:22 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

While Democratic Creigh deeds has slightly improved his standing in the Virginia's 2009 Governor's race against Republic Bob McDonnell according to a new poll, the underlying numbers suggests that Deeds is still in trouble. While the DailyKos/ Research 2000 poll finds Bob McDonnell (R) leading Creigh Deeds (D), 51% to 43%, the Republic is up over the all-important 50% mark and the poll's internal breakdown suggests this might not change soon: "People sitting on the sidelines as 'undecided' back in mid-June, post-primary, are now falling behind McDonnell. And the gains come almost entirely from independents -- they leaned McDonnell 47% to 44% back in June, but now break heavily for the Republican 55% to 40%. McDonnell has even managed to peal away a few points of Democratic support, growing from 13% to 17%. Deeds, for his part, garners a scant 6% of Republican support."

2009 Election Update: New Jersey

Posted Aug 07, 2009 at 1:18 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

It looks like Democrat Jon Corzine remains in the danger zone for an incumbent Governor. A new DailyKos/Research 2000 poll in New Jersey reports that Republican Chris Christie leads Corzine by +8%--48% to 40%. The survey reports that there is "surprising little movement in the last several months. Corzine is wallowing in the panic zone for an incumbent, and Christie is hovering around the 50% mark. This poll is actually the most optimistic for Corzine from the most recent batch." Despite Corzine's very slightly improved standing in this poll, a new Rasmussen Reports survey finds Christie leading by 13 points, 50% to 37%. With Christie hovering at the 50% mark and Corzine stuck in the high-30s, it may be very difficult for the Democrat to recover in time for the 2009 election, now less than three months away.

2009 Election Update: Virginia

Posted Aug 05, 2009 at 1:15 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

Bob McDonnell, the Republican candidate for Governor in Virginia has expanded his lead over Democrat Creigh deeds, according to a new Public Policy Polling survey. The numbers may say more about the enthusiasm of GOP vs Democratic voters as well as the declining approval rating of President Obama in the state: "In a result probably owing more to the shift against Democrats in the national political climate than anything going on in Virginia, Bob McDonnell now leads Creigh Deeds 51-37 in the race to become the next Governor of Virginia."

PPP continues: "It’s not that voters are changing sides from last fall- the 5% of John McCain’s voters planning to vote for Deeds is actually equal to the 5% of Barack Obama’s voters planning to vote for McDonnell. But Republicans, on a losing streak in Virginia, appear to be more motivated about heading to the polls at this point three months before the election . . . McDonnell has a 52-33 lead among independents and has locked up 94% of the
Republican vote while Deeds is at 80% with Democrats. There is some good news for Deeds in the poll, as he leads 64-3 among African Americans. The 33% of undecided voters in that group will likely move toward Deeds as the election approaches, tightening up the race. 'As Barack Obama’s approval rating in Virginia declines we’re finding that Bob McDonnell is the beneficiary,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. 'That said, Creigh Deeds was 16 points back five weeks before the primary and charged back to win so it’s way too early to count him out.'"

2009 Election Update: New Jersey

Posted Aug 04, 2009 at 1:54 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

In the state of New Jersey, incumbent Governor Jon Corzine's reelection numbers can be described in a single word: dismal. His opponent, for state proescutor, Republican Chris Christie not only maintins a significant lead, but has jumped over the all-important 50% mark. The race is as follows, according to PollTrack's polling average: 51.5% to 37%, giving the Republican a whopping lead of +14.5%.

2009 Election Update: Virginia

Posted Aug 03, 2009 at 1:33 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

With more recent polls indicating a jump in support for the Republican candidate for Governor in Virginia, the 2009 race is starting to appear difficult for the Democrats. As of Sunday evening, the aggregate polling average in the states puts Republican Bob McDonnell at 48.3% and Democrat Creigh Deeds at 42%. Furthermore, McDonnell is inching perilously close to the 50% mark. The Republican advantage in the state has almost doubled from a week ago and now stands at +6.3%.

2009 Election Update: New Jersey--Democrat Corzine Sinks Lower

Posted Jul 31, 2009 at 1:34 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

Incumbent Democratic Governor Jon Corzine has fallen even further behind in his 2009 race for reelection. With a little more than three months to go, Public Policy Polling reports: The pollster's "monthly look at the race for Governor of New Jersey finds Republican Chris Christie leading incumbent Democrat Jon Corzine 50% to 36%. That 14 point lead is up from 10 at the end of June. Christie has a 54-26 lead among independents, and holds Corzine to just 64% of the Democratic vote, while receiving 86% from within his own party. Attack ads running against each candidate right now don’t seem to be having much of an impact on how voters view either of them. 42% have a favorable opinion of Chris Christie with 32% seeing him negatively. That’s virtually unchanged from a month ago when the spread was 43/33.Corzine’s spread is 33/56, also pretty similar to his previous 36/56 number."

VA Governor 2009: Republican McDonnell Now Way Ahead

Posted Jul 30, 2009 at 1:53 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

According to the latest poll by SurveyUSA--one of the most accurate pollsters in the 2008 cycle--Democrat Creigh Deeds has fallen significantly behind in Virginia's 2009 Governor's race: "Republican Bob McDonnell today defeats Democrat Creigh Deeds 55% to 40%. McDonnell, former Attorney General of Virginia, leads by 25 points among men, by 5 points among women. Deeds, a state senator who ran against McDonnell in the tightly-fought 2005 race for Attorney General, leads 6:1 among African Americans, 8:1 among Democrats, and 13:1 among liberals. Among moderates, Deeds is ahead by 8 points. McDonnell carries independents 2:1, and is above 50% in all regions of the state. Gun owners vote 2:1 McDonnell. Those without guns vote 5:4 Deeds. 14% of those who say they voted for Barack Obama in the 2008 Presidential election say they will vote for Republican McDonnell in the gubernatorial contest; 9% of John McCain voters say they will cross over and vote for Democrat Deeds." These numbers siggest that what had been a relatively close race may in face be widening for the Republican.

2009 Election Update: New Jersey

Posted Jul 28, 2009 at 2:22 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

The Democratic incumbent Governor continues to loose ground in the upcoming election New Jersey. PollTrack's polling average for the state reports that Republican challenger Chris Christie has a huge lead lead over incumbent Jon Corzine: 51.0% to 39.2%, for an Republican advantage of + 11.8%.

2009 Election Update: Virginia

Posted Jul 27, 2009 at 2:00 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

While the race has grown somewhat closer in Virginia's upcoming election for Governor, PollTrack's polling average for the state still shows Republican Bob McDonnell with a modest lead over Democrat Creigh Deeds: 46.3% to 42.8%, for an Republican advantage of + 3.5%.

New York Governor Paterson's Approval Edging Upward

Posted Jul 21, 2009 at 2:25 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

While New York's incumbent Democratic Governor, David Paterson, continues to sufffer from low approval ratings--now in the mid-30% range--his standing with voters has inched slightly upward in recent weeks. According to a Siena Research Institute survey, the Democrat, who faces election in 2010, was rated favorably by 36% of registered voters; unfavorably by 56%. The poll, conducted last week, reports an increase from 31% favorability in June 2009 and 27% in May. The recent chaotic breakdown of the NY State Legislature, deadlocked by a leadership struggle over, actually appears to help the Governor:  64% of voters gave Paterson credit for playing some role in resolving the state Senate fight.

NY Governor's Race 2010: Democratic Incumbent Paterson Way Behind

Posted Jul 20, 2009 at 2:09 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

The political climate continues to look bleak for incumbent Democratic Governor David Paterson in New York state. His current approval rating is so low, that he runs far behind his presemptive Democratic primary and GOP general election challengers in hypothetical matchups: "It’s a knockout for Rudy Giuliani if he’s the Republican candidate for governor in New York next year running against incumbent Democrat David Paterson. But if Andrew Cuomo is Giuliani’s opponent, chalk up a win for the Democrat. At least that’s the way it looks in the summer of 2009." A new Rasmussen Reports survey shows "Giuliani beating Paterson by 22 points, 55% to 33%. 8% prefer some other candidate, and five percent are undecided. However, Cuomo tops Giuliani by seven points – 48% to 41% - in a match-up between the two, with 6% favoring some other candidate and 6% not sure who they’ll vote for. At this point, it appears Giuliani is likely to face the tougher of the two Democrats since a survey of Democratic Primary voters shows Cuomo ahead of Paterson 61% to 27%.

NJ Governor 2009: Corzine Trials In Another Poll

Posted Jul 17, 2009 at 2:06 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

A new Monmouth University poll in New Jersey reports that GOP challenger Chirs Christie currently leads incumbent Governor Jon Corzine, 43% to 37% among registered voters. Independent Chris Daggett garners 5% of the vote and 15% of voters remain undecided. The survey continues: "Among likely voters – those who are most probable to vote on November 3rd – Christie leads Corzine by 8 points, 45% to 37%, with Daggett at 4%. While Christie has maintained an advantage in most polls this year, the race is far from over. Only 54% of likely voters say they have definitely made up their mind on which candidate they will be supporting. If voters who are only “leaning” toward a candidate are removed from the equation, Christie’s advantage shrinks to 4 points, 37% to 33%.

Another indication of the volatility of these early polls is the change in favorability rating for the two main candidates. Currently, Jon Corzine stands at 38% favorable to 46% unfavorable, with 16% who have no opinion. This indicates a drop in the governor’s favorable ratings since January, when they stood at 49% favorable to 38% unfavorable. Chris Christie has a better overall rating than his opponent, but there are some warning signs that the Republican should keep an eye on. Currently, Christie’s rating stands at 43% favorable to 24% unfavorable. While the GOP nominee’s favorable rating has remained basically steady since January, his unfavorable rating has climbed by 12 points."

VA Governor 2009: Republican McDonnell Continues To Lead

Posted Jul 16, 2009 at 1:31 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

A new Rasmussen survey reports that "Republican candidate Robert F. McDonnell has rebounded to take a narrow lead over Democrat R. Creigh Deeds in the race for governor in Virginia, highlighting the expected closeness of that contest right up to November." Among VA voters, "McDonnell leads Deeds 44% to 41%; 3% prefer some other candidate, and 12% are undecided . . . McDonnell has an 12-point lead among men. Deeds leads by five among female voters . . . 50% of Virginia voters have a favorable view of McDonnell, with 25% whose opinion is very favorable. 27% regard him unfavorably, including 7% very unfavorable. 22% don’t know enough abut McDonnell to venture an opinion of him. Deeds is seen favorably by 49%, with 19% very favorable, and unfavorably by 35%, including 11% who have a very unfavorable view of him. 17% aren’t sure what they think of the Democrat. McDonnell’s numbers are little changed from last month, but Deeds has suffered a 10-point drop in his favorables."

New Jersey: Democratic Givernor Corzine Sinks Further Behind

Posted Jul 15, 2009 at 1:23 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

Things continue to look bleak for incumbent Democratic Governor Jon Corzine in his 2009 reelection bid. A new Quinnipiac University poll reports that "Republican challenger Christopher Christie is pulling away from Corzine and now holds a 53% to 41% lead among likely voters in the New Jersey Governor's race . . . This compares to a 50 - 40 percent lead for the former federal prosecutor in a June 10 survey. In a three-way matchup among likely voters, Christie leads Gov. Corzine 47% to 38% percent, with 8% for independent candidate Christopher Daggett.  . . . In the two-way face-off, Corzine leads 76 - 19 percent among Democratic likely voters, while Christie leads 89% to 7% among Republicans and 64% to 28% percent among independent voters. This is a jump from Christie's 56 - 32 percent lead among independent voters June 10. In a three-way race, Daggett gets 13 percent of independent voters, with 54 percent for Christie and 24 percent for Corzine."

Ohio: Democrats Have Slight Edge in Key 2010 Statewide Races

Posted Jul 14, 2009 at 1:37 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

According to a new DailyKos/Research 2000 poll on the 2010 election cycle in Ohio reports that if the election were held now, Democratic Gov. Ted Strickland would lead Republican John Kasich in the gubernatorial race, 44% to 39%. In the U.S. Senate race, the Democratic primary is unclear, with no real leader and the lion's share of voters undecided at this early stage: Democrat Lee Fisher leads Jennifer Brunner 22% to 17%. Significantly, both Democrats edge presumptive Republican nominee Rob Portman in a hypothetical general election match up. Fisher leads, 42% to 35%, and Brunner leads, 40% to 36%.

New Jersey: Is The National Economy Hurting Corzine In His Rellection Quest?

Posted Jul 13, 2009 at 1:57 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

One serious problem facing incumbent New Jersey Democratic Governor Jon Corzine in his 2009 reelection race according to Rasmussen Reports: a growing sense in the state that the nation is falling further into economic disarray: Just 4% of New Jersey voters rate the economy as good or excellent while 65% say it's in poor shape. 23% say things are getting better, but 47% say they are getting worse. PollTrack has noted this same phenomena in other states where the economy is suffering and incumbent Democratic governors now in trouble, including the key swing states of Virginia (a race that will also be decided this November) and Ohio.

Ohio Democratic Governor May Be In Trouble in 2010 Reelection Bid

Posted Jul 10, 2009 at 1:17 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

A Quinnipiac University survey suggests that incumbent Democratic Governor Ted strickland of Ohio may be in trouble with votes: "His approval rating--at 46% positive, 42% negative, is down considerably from the 57% to 29% rating he received in the organization's May 6 survey. "This is Gov. Strickland's lowest approval rating since a 45 - 12 score, with 43 percent undecided, February 1, 2007, one month after he took office.  Voters give Gov. Strickland two big thumbs down, disapproving 53 - 33% of the way he is handling the economy and disapproving 53 - 32% of the way he is handling the state budget. Voters also feel 40 - 34%that Gov. Strickland has not kept his campaign promises. These are Strickland's lowest scores on these three measures. U.S. Sen. Mike DeWine, a possible Republican challenger in the 2010 Governor's race, has caught up with the struggling Strickland, with 40% to the Governor's 41%, compared to a 48 - 36% Strickland lead May 6. Another challenger, former Congressman John Kasich, trails Strickland 43 - 38 percent, compared to 51 - 32 percent May 6.

Another Poll Shows Republican Christie Ahead in 2009 NJ Gubernatorial Race

Posted Jul 09, 2009 at 1:40 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

Yet another poll suggests that incumbent New Jersey Democratic Governor Jon Corzine is in trouble: "Just one in five voters (21%) say New Jersey is on the right track and, according to the most recent poll by Fairleigh Dickinson University’s PublicMind™, Republican Chris Christie continues to lead the Democratic incumbent governor by a margin of 45%-39% in the race for governor. Another 15% say they are unsure. Christie, the former U.S. Attorney for New Jersey, has increased his statewide name recognition to 87%, up 25 points since April. However, his ratio of favorable to unfavorable opinion has shifted away from him even as Corzine has begun advertising. One-third of New Jersey voters (34%) say they have a favorable view of Christie versus one quarter (25%) who have an unfavorable view, up from 12% in April. Another quarter (28%) say they have not formed an opinion. . . . Among all voters, 54% say their view of Corzine is unfavorable, while 31% say their view is favorable . . . 48% of Democrats say their view of Corzine is favorable, but 37% say their view is unfavorable. In fact, only two-thirds of Democratic voters (66%) support Corzine, while one in five (20%) say they prefer Christie and 13% are undecided." Not good news for the incumbent Governor.

Republican McDonnell Leads In 2009 VA Governor's Race

Posted Jul 08, 2009 at 1:48 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

According to a new Public Policy Polling survey, Democratic gubernatorial candidate Creigh Deeds has fallen behind his Republican challenger, Bob McDonnell. The GOP candidate now holds a 49% to 43% lead in this fall's race. As PPP notes: "We're detecting little interest in the race right now from black voters or young voters, both groups that were overwhelmingly supportive of Barack Obama and key to his success in the state last year. We currently project black turnout at 16% of the electorate, down from 20% last year, and voters under 30 at 8%, down from 21% last year. Getting those groups excited about his candidacy and out to the polls will be key to Deeds' prospects."

New York Gov. Peterson's Approval Rating: Dismal

Posted Jul 02, 2009 at 1:52 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

Things seem to just get worse and worse for New York Governor David Paterson. A new Marist College Poll reports: "The news for Governor David Paterson remains grim.  The governor’s approval rating is an abysmal 21%, and with the New York State Senate in disarray, nearly half of the state’s electorate says they disapprove of the way in which the governor is handling the situation while 43% approve.  To make matters even worse, more than six in ten registered voters disapprove of the way Paterson is dealing with the state’s economic crisis.How bad is Governor Paterson’s political situation?  The answer is pretty bad.  According to The Marist Poll’s new statewide survey, about one in five registered voters in New York — 21% — report that Governor Paterson is doing either an excellent or good job in office.  Voters’ view of the governor’s job performance is little changed since The Marist Poll last asked this question in May.  At that time, 19% of voters gave Paterson’s job performance above average marks.  And, the governor still does not receive affirmation from a major share of voters within his own party.  However, he has received a slight bump among Democrats in New York State.  28% believe Governor Paterson is doing an excellent or good job in office.  This compares with the 22% of Democrats he received in May."

Democrat Gov. Jon Corzine Remains Well Behind In NJ Reelection Effort

Posted Jul 01, 2009 at 1:34 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

A new poll suggests that New Jersey's incumbent Democratic Governor has a tough road ahead of him in this year's reelection campaign. A Public Policy Polling survey reports that Republican challenger Chris Christie leads Gov. Jon Corzine by ten points: 51% to 41%: "Christie is being buoyed by a 60-26 advantage with independent voters and a remarkable degree of party unity, as he leads 93-3 with Republicans. By comparison, Corzine has just a 75-16 edge with Democrats . . . There's not much doubt Christie's lead is being fueled largely by Corzine's unpopularity. 56% of voters in the state have a negative opinion of the incumbent, while just 36% view him favorably. For Christie the breakdown is 43% positive and 33% unfavorable."

Ohio Democratic Governor Less Popular

Posted Jun 30, 2009 at 2:05 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

A Public Policy Polling survey out of Ohio indicates that incumbent Democratic Governor Ted Strickland's approval rating has declined to 43%. In a hypothetic 2010 general election match up, he leads Republican John Kasich by just two points, 44% to 42%. PPP continues: "Strickland has seen a decline in popularity among both Democrats and Republicans. Where previously 70% of voters within his party gave him good marks, now just 62% do. And the percentage of Republicans disapproving of him has increased from 59% to 72%. His numbers with independents are relatively steady."

Most Vorters in South Carolinia Want Gov. Sanford To Resign

Posted Jun 26, 2009 at 1:14 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

Can Gov. Mark Sanford survive his extramarital affair and mysterious disappearance from the state? Can an ultra-conservative "family values" Republican--who proudly condemns gay marriage, gay adoption and even civil unions for gay couples--live down a growing consensus that he is both hypocritical and unethical (he used state funds to travel to Argentina to carry on his illicit affair)? The answer would appear to be no. Two polls suggests that Sanford is in serious trouble: SurveyUSA reports that 60% of South Carolinans believe the embattled governor should resign; 34% think he should remain in office. InsiderAdvantage finds 50% of the state's voters want him to resign; 42%  said he should remain in office.

Democrat Incumbent Governor Corzine Continues To Do Poorly in New Jersey

Posted Jun 25, 2009 at 1:40 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

The political landscape continues to look bleak for incumbent Democratic Governor Jon Corzine in New Jersey. With the general election a little more than four months away, a new Strategic Vision poll in New Jersey finds Republican Christopher Christie leading Corzine by an impressive 12 points, 51% to 39% with 8% undecided.

NY Gov. Paterson Remains Very Unpopular

Posted Jun 23, 2009 at 12:52 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

According to a new Siena Institute Poll, incumbent New York Governor David Paterson remains very unpopular with voters: His approval rating is just 31%. In a hypothetical Democratic primary match up, New York Attorney General Andrew Cuomo crushes Paterson, 69% to 16%. In general election match ups, Rudy Giuliani would also crush Paterson, 57% to 27%, while Cuomo would beat Giuliani, 49% to 40%.

 

New Poll: VA Gubernatorial Race Now A Tie

Posted Jun 19, 2009 at 1:33 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

A just released DailyKos/Research 2000 poll reports that Republican Bob McDonnell is now edging Democrat Creigh Deeds in the Virginia gubernatorial race--45% to 44%. Given the poll's margin of error of +/- 4 points, the race is essentially tied. The public appears to have a better of the Republican, who has a favorability rating 55% to 36%; Deeds is at 47% to 35%.

Democrat Deeds Leading In 2009 VA Governor's Race

Posted Jun 17, 2009 at 1:41 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

The Democrats appear to now hold a slight edge in Virginia's race for Governor. According to an Anzalone Liszt Research (D), Democrat Creigh Deeds (D) leads Republican Bob McDonnell, 42% to 38%. (The poll was conducted for the Democratic Governor's Association, so it may have a partisan tilt.) Deeds has a slightly higher favorability rating, as well: Deeds favorable ratio is 48% to 14%; McDonnell's 43% to 19%.

VA Governor: New Poll Shows Democrat Deeds In The Lead

Posted Jun 12, 2009 at 1:53 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

With the Democratic primary for Governor over in Virginia, a new poll by Rasmussen reports that the Democrat, R. Creigh deeds leads Republican challenger, former Attorney General Robert F. McDonnell, by six points, 47% to 41%. 2% favor another candidate and 10% are undecided.The race is somewhat of a rematch: McDonnell beat Deeds in the 2005 state attorney general’s race by less than 400-votes, one of the closest elections in Virginia history.

New Jersey Governor 2009: Incumbent Democrat Corzine Trails Christie

Posted Jun 11, 2009 at 1:49 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

New Jersey Governor Jon Corzine continues to trail his Republican challenger, according to a new Quinnipiac poll: GOP candidate Chris Christie leads Corzine 50% to 40%, among likely voters. The road to November seems particularly steep for Corzine: "Most New Jersey voters say he does not deserve re-election; that things have gotten worse since he became Governor and that personally he is cold and businesslike, not warm and friendly."

Not Even Close: Creigh Deeds Wins VA Democratic Gubernatorial Primary

Posted Jun 09, 2009 at 4:36 PM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

It's not even Close. Creigh deeds wins the Virginia Democratic gubernatorial primary by a wide margin. Here is the result from the VA Board of Elections, with nearly all of the vote counted:

CANDIDATE VOTE VOTE% STATISTICS DETAILS
Governor

Last Reported: Jun 9 2009 10:31PM EST


R. Creigh Deeds
159,324 49.73% Precincts Reporting:
    2,499 of 2,504 (99.80%)

Voter Turnout:
    320,369 of 4,959,506 active voters (6.459%)
    320,369 of 5,071,226 total voters (6.317%)
Votes by County/City

Votes by District

Terry R. McAuliffe
84,640 26.41%

Brian J. Moran
76,405 23.84%


Tunrnout Low In VA Democratic Gubernatorial Primary

Posted Jun 09, 2009 at 5:38 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

The New York Times reports that voter turnout appears to be very low in Virginia in today's Democratic gubernatorial primary: "Democratic voters in Virginia trickled to the polls Tuesday, as heavy morning rains dampened what was already expected to be a low turnout for the close of an unusually contentious, expensive and closely-watched primary for governor. The race is one of two elections for governor this year — the other is in New Jersey — and both national parties are strongly involved. Democrats hope to continue their party’s recent winning streak in this historically conservative state . . . Polling stations in McLean, Arlington and Alexandria looked more like ghost towns as poll workers outnumbered voters three to one during what was supposed to be the before-work rush around 8 a.m." With turnout expected at no greater than 10%, PollTrack suggests that the outcome of the election could be skewed in favor of the most well-organized candidate. Pre-election polls showed Creigh Deeds surging ahead, picking up the lion's share of undecided voters.

2009 Virginia Governor's Race: May Be Tough For Democrats Come November

Posted Jun 09, 2009 at 1:54 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

Whoever wins today's primary for the Democratic gubernatorial nomination in Virginia, one senior politician's on-the-ground oberservation about the mood of voters in the state should give Democrats reason to be concerned: Democrat Douglas Wilder, who became the country's first African-American governor when Virginians elected him in 1989, "thinks that no matter who emerges victorious from the state's Democratic gubernatorial primary on Tuesday, the party will find it awfully tough to defeat Republican candidate Bob McDonnell in November. Wilder said there's something in the air' that makes him think Virginia voters aren't prepared to elect a Democrat to the governorship for the third straight time. Democrats Mark Warner and Tim Kaine have won the last two gubernatorial elections in the commonwealth. Before that, Republicans won two consecutive victories with George Allen and Jim Gilmore. 'Each time around, voters say, "Wait a minute, no one's supposed to be here forever," and I think Virginians like to see that degree of balance,' Wilder said in an interview with CNN. 'They like to mix it up. I think the guy who can ride that horse to show some grasp of the independent voter, rather than just the Republican or Democratic voter, will be successful. That's key.'"

Another Poll Reports Deeds Pulling Ahead in VA Democratic Primary

Posted Jun 08, 2009 at 4:44 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

A poll from one of the most accurate pollsters in the 2008 national cycle, SurveyUSA, also reports that Creigh Deeds is pulling away in Virginia's Democratic primary for Governor: "24 hours until votes are counted in the Democratic Primary for Governor of Virginia, momentum shifts to Deeds . . . In 4 identical SurveyUSA tracking polls, Deeds' support has gone from 22% to 26% to 29% to today 42%. Deeds finishes ahead of Terry McAuliffe, whose support has declined in each of the 4 tracking polls and who ends at 30%. Brian Moran, who has treaded water in 4 tracking polls, finishes 3rd, at 21%."

Deeds Take Significant Lead In VA Democratic Gubernatorial Primary

Posted Jun 08, 2009 at 2:29 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

According to a Public Policy Polling survey released late yesterday, Democrat Creigh Deeds has taken a healthy lead in Virginia's Democratic gubernatorial primary. The poll also shows the formerly large bloc of undecided voters breaking for Deeds: "Two days before the election Creigh Deeds has opened up a commanding lead in the Democratic primary for Governor of Virginia. Deeds is now at 40%, followed by Terry McAuliffe at 26% and Brian Moran at 24%. In the last week Deeds has gained 13 points while McAuliffe and Moran have each advanced by just two. Deeds now leads in every region of the state except Hampton Roads, including a 38-35 lead over Moran in northern Virginia, where just two and a half weeks ago Deeds was polling at only 11%. Deeds is up over 50% in the parts of the state outside Washington DC/Richmond/Hampton Roads."

VA Governor: Another Poll Shows Deeds In The Lead

Posted Jun 05, 2009 at 6:13 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

Another poll, this time from Suffolk University,  shows a close race in VA's Democratic primary for Governor: "Virginia voters give Democratic gubernatorial candidate Creigh Deeds (29%) a slight lead over opponents Terry McAuliffe (26%), and Brian Moran (23%), leading up to the June 9 Primary, with a significant 22% still undecided.  The poll shows that all three candidates are within the statistical margin of error and any one of them could ultimately emerge as the Democrat to face Republican Bob McDonnell in November.

Daily Kos/Research 2000: VA Democratic Governor's Primary Too Close To Call

Posted Jun 05, 2009 at 2:05 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

A new Daily Kos/Research 2000 poll reports two key observations in next week's race for the Democratic nomination for Governor in Virginia: Former leader Terry McAuliffe has fallen behind the pack, and that the numbers all fall well within the poll's margin of error. The uphot: the race is too close to call. Here are the numbers: state Sen. Creigh Deeds at 30%, former state Rep. Brian Moran at 27%, and former Democratic National Committee chairman Terry mcAuliffe at 26%.

Rasmussen: Christie (r) Has Big Lead Over Corzine (d)

Posted Jun 05, 2009 at 1:54 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

According to a new poll released after the results of Tuesday's GOP primary became known to voters in New Jersey, Republican Chris Christie has a sunstantial lead over incumbent Democratic Governor Jon Corzine: "The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey in the state shows Christie with 51% of the vote while Corzine is supported by 38%. Last month, before the primary, it was Christie with 47% of the vote and Corzine with 38%. The slight increase in support for Christie may reflect a temporary bounce from his primary victory. Still, voters recognize that it’s tough for a Republican to win statewide races in the Garden State. Just 43% say that Christie is likely to end up as the next governor while 41% say Corzine will be re-elected. New Jersey polls often show Republican candidates doing well in the spring with Democrats gaining ground in the fall. Corzine is expected to heavily outspend Christie which could add to that trend. A Republican has not won a statewide election in the Garden State since 1997." A real sign of Corzine's troubles: his approval rating is stagnant at 41%, while 53% of NJ voters have at least a "somewhat favorable" opinion of Christie. 

Survey USA: VA Democratic Gubernatorial Primary Too Close To Call

Posted Jun 04, 2009 at 2:07 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

According to a new poll by Survey USA, one of the most accurate and reliable polsters of the 2008 cycle, next week's Democratic gubenatorial primary in Virginia is too close to call. And a number of signs point to the increasing volatility of a race that former Democratic party chairman Terry McAuliffe had appeared to be walking away with: 6 days till Virginia voters choose the Democratic nominee for Governor, there is unusual volatility in SurveyUSA's tracking graphs, reflected in the newest data gathered for WJLA-TV Washington DC and WDBJ-TV Roanoke. Overall, former Democratic National Committee chair Terry McAuliffe remains on top today with 35%, state senator Creigh Deeds has 29%, former state delegate Brian Moran 26%. But, enough is happening below the surface to add considerable drama to Tuesday's outcome. Half of Survey USA likely voters say they may yet change their mind. Among voters who say their mind is made up, Deeds leads, with McAuliffe and Moran a half-dozen points back. Where is the volatility? Men are breaking for Moran."

Is Terry McAuliffe Loosing Steam in VA Democratic Gubernatorial Primary?

Posted Jun 03, 2009 at 2:22 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

Is Terry McAuliffe in trouble in his bid for the Democratic gubernatorial nomination in Virginia. A new survey suggests that the former DNC head may not be as far ahead as some recent polls have suggested: The SurveyUSA poll reports that in four Northern Virginia counties -- Fairfax, Arlington, Loudoun and Price William -- challenger Brian Moran (D) "remains a force" with just one week until voters head to the polls. Moran leads with 43% in the DC suburbs, followed by McAuliffe (D) at 27% and Creigh Deeds (D) at 20%. PollTrack suggests that since this region makes more than a quarter of the state's likely Democratic voters--and often has very high turnout--the race may be far from over for Moran. Another survey actually reports that McAuliffe is no longer the presumptive leader: Public Policy Polling reports that Creigh Deeds now leads at 27%, followed by Terry McAuliffe at 24%, and Brian Moran at 22%.
But the race remains very close, since these numbers are well within the poll's margin of error. The PPP survey suggest that it is Deeds who might have the momentum: Over the last month Deeds has gone from 14% to 27% while McAuliffe has dropped from 30% to 24% and Moran has pretty much stayed in place.

Christie Handily Defeats Lonegan in NJ GOP Gubenatorial Primary

Posted Jun 02, 2009 at 3:52 PM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

Well, New Jesey Republican chose the more moderate of the two main rivals for the GOP nomination for Governor: With 86 percent of precincts reporting, Mr. Christie had 162,210 votes to 124,196 for Mr. Lonegan, or 55 percent to 42 percent. Assemblyman Rick Merkt drew 3 percent, according to the Associated Press. PollTrack can now call the GOP primary for former US federal prosecutor, Christopher J. Christie.

Does Democrat Corzine Want To Run Against Lonegan?

Posted Jun 02, 2009 at 10:11 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

See post below, New Jersey Governor 2009: Incumbent Jon Corzine (d) Trailing Republican Rivals to get a sense of why Democratic incumbent NJ governor Jon Corzine may favor the more conservative Lonegan as his GOP challenger. It is no accident that Lonegan--who does 4% less well than Christie in a hypothetical match up against Corzine--is both more conservative and more appealing to the Republican base than Christie. But will GOP voters choose to endorse the candidate who appears to have a better chance of defeating Corzine of the candidate who remains truer to hardline Republican principals? We will know later tonight.

Today's NJ GOP Primary: Could Lonegan Score An Upset?

Posted Jun 02, 2009 at 9:48 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

Could former Bogota Mayor Steve Lonegan, very popular with the party faithful in New Jersey, score an upset over the presumptive leader in today's GOP primary for Governor, former U.S. Attorney Chris Christie? Well, hard to say. But two factors could produce the perfect storm for a Lonegan upset: light turnout, which would favor the candidate most likely to do well among GOP diehards and the spate of very negative TV commercials adainst Christie run recently by incumbent Democratic Govorner Jon Corzine. So, are these commercials actually meant to defeat Christie in the primary, in order for Corzine to run against a candidate possible less appeal to middle-of-the road voters and independents? Or has Corzine misculated, running commercials against a candidate he (perhaps prematurely) believes is the presumptive GOP nominee? PollTrack's guess: the former seems to be the more likely scenario. 

Vote Going Smoothly In NJ GOP Primary

Posted Jun 02, 2009 at 9:31 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

According to the Newark Star-Ledger, voting is going smoothly in today's NY GOP primary for Governor: "It's been a relatively clean day of polling across the state in the Republican race for governor, according to officials from all three GOP camps. So far, the campaigns of Chris Christie, Steve Lonegan and Rick Merkt said they have encountered virtually no problems with their voters being disenfranchised at the polls or experiencing major problems with voting machines. State election officials have also reported no problems at the polls. The Secretary of State's Office, which oversees elections, has so far not had to deal with any major elections problems, according to agency spokeswoman Susan Evans."

Today's NY GOP Gubernatorial Primary: Christie Headed For Victory

Posted Jun 02, 2009 at 1:54 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

In their campaign to unseat incumbent Democratic Governor Jon Corzine in New Jersey, Republicans are appatently prepared to nominate Former U.S. Attorney Chris Christie, according to a Fairleigh Dickinson University poll. Christie leads former Bogota Mayor Steve Lonegan by a whopping 24%--54% to 30% in the race for the GOP gubernatorial nomination that will be decided in today's primary. This represents a marked improvement for Christie from numbers he received las week from a Rasmussen Reports poll, which showed him leading Steve Lonegan by 11 points, 46% to 35%.

New Jersey Governor 2009: Incumbent Jon Corzine (d) Trailing Republican Rivals

Posted Jun 01, 2009 at 4:00 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

According to a Daily Kos/Research 2000 survey, incumbent New Jersey Governor Jon Corzine continues to trail BOTH possible Republican rivals in his reelection bid. The survey reports the General Election Match-Ups as follows:

Chris Christie (R) 46%
Jon Corzine (D) 39%
Undecided 15%

Steve Lonegan (R) 43%
Jon Corzine (D) 40%
Undecided 17%

The Daily Kos analysis continues: "First, the bad news: incumbent Democrat Jon Corzine trails both potential Republican challengers in a general election. With the GOP primary coming up, likely nominee Chris Christie has, at present, a seven-point edge over Corzine. The non-establishment conservative candidate in the race, former Bogota Mayor Steve Lonegan, enjoys a slight lead as well of three points. There is a little bit of good news for Corzine in these numbers, however. For one thing, his numbers versus his Republican opponents appear to be holding steady, compared to other recent polling in the race. His numbers had been heading south, but there is at least some sign that his poll numbers have bottomed out."

Nevertheless, PollTrack notes that it is difficult to see these numbers as anything but discouraging for a sitting governor a mere six-months from the Election Day.

New York Governor Paterson Still At Record Low Approval

Posted May 28, 2009 at 2:18 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

Things continue to look very dire for Governor David Paterson's 2010 reelection chances. According to a new Siena Institute Poll, his approval rating remains at a record low level: "Paterson is viewed favorably by 27 percent of voters and unfavorably by 60 percent, virtually identical to last month’s 27-63 percent. His job performance rating is 18 percent positive, 81 percent negative, unchanged from last month. Only 15 percent of voters are prepared to elect Paterson as Governor in 2010, compared to 71 percent who prefer someone else,' barely up from 12-71 percent in April."

“Voters are continuing to deliver bad news to the Governor. His popularity remains at record low levels, with more than twice as many voters having an unfavorable view of him as have a favorable view and fewer than one in five voters saying he’s doing an excellent or good job as Governor,” said Siena New York pollster
Steven Greenberg. “If a Democratic primary were held today, Andrew Cuomo would beat David Paterson by a 70-19 percent margin, with African American voters supporting Cuomo by better than two-to-one.”

Minnesotans Expect Their Governor To Run For President (And Fail)

Posted May 27, 2009 at 1:48 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

 

While Republican Minnesota governor Pawlenty remains popular, most expect him to run for president in 2012, but fail to achieve his party's nomination: "53% approve of Pawlenty’s job performance, including 28% who Strongly Approve . . . 46% don’t approve of the Republican governor, with 26% who Strongly Disapprove. . . 59% of the state’s voters now say it is at least somewhat likely that Pawlenty will run for president, including 17% who say it’s Very Likely he will do so. Twenty-nine percent (29%) say the governor is not very or not at all likely to seek the White House. But just 37% say Pawlenty is even somewhat likely to win the GOP presidential nomination in 2012. Only seven percent (7%) say it’s Very Likely. For 55%, it’s not likely that their governor will be the party’s standard-bearer."

 

VA Governor: Slight Shift In Democratic Primary Polling

Posted May 22, 2009 at 1:49 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

Who's ahead in Virginia in the June 2009 election to achieve the Democratic nomination for Governor. According to Survey USA: Former Democratic National Committee chair Terry McAuliffe continues to run strongest of the 3 candidates for Democratic nomination for Virginia Governor . . . three weeks to the Primary, it's McAuliffe 37%, Creigh Deeds 26%, Brian Moran 22%. Compared to an identical SurveyUSA poll three weeks ago, McAuliffe and Moran are flat, Deeds is up. 57% of likely Democratic Primary voters today say they may change their mind -- down from 64% three weeks ago - but high enough to describe a fluid electorate still evaluating its options. McAuliffe, who ran Hillary Clinton's 2008 presidential campaign, is 11 points atop Deeds, a state senator -- but Deeds is the only candidate with momentum, and today leads McAuliffe in Central Virginia by 12 points, a 19-point swing to Deeds in the past 3 weeks. Deeds and McAuliffe remain tied in the Shenandoah; McAuliffe remains in command in the southeastern portion of the state. In Northern Virginia, Moran's 23-point lead three weeks ago is today a 10-point lead." 

Still, according to a Daily Kos/Research 2000 poll, the overall picture is NOT good for the Democrats in Virginia: In general election match ups, presumptive Republican nominee Bob McDonnell (R) bests all of the potential Democratic nominees. McDonnell is ahead of McAuliffe 44% to 34%, tops Moran, 42% to 35%, and leads Deeds, 45% to 32%.

2009 NJ Governor: Republican Christie Leads Incumbent Democrat Corzine

Posted May 19, 2009 at 1:40 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

Incumbent Democratic Governor Jon Corzine continues to suffer in his attempt to retain his seat in this year's re-election battle: "Corzine trails Republican challenger Chris Christie by nine percentage points. The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Garden State voters shows Christie with 47% of the vote and Corzine with 38%. The Governor does better when matched against Republican Steve Lonegan. In that case, it’s Lonegan with 42% and Corzine just a point behind at 41%. These numbers, while disappointing for an incumbent, are actually an improvement for Corzine. In March, as the Governor announced announcing his budget plan including $916 million in new and increased taxes, Corzine trailed Christie by fifteen points and was eight points behind Lonegan"

2009 NJ Governor: Attorney General Christie Leads GOP Pack

Posted May 18, 2009 at 2:17 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

There appears to be a front-runner in the contest for the GOP nod to run against incumbent NJ Governor Jon Corzine. According to Rasmussen Reports survey, "with less than three weeks to go until New Jersey Republicans select their nominee for governor, Chris Christie attracts 39% of the state's GOP voters while Steve Lonegan earns 29%. Another 29% remain undecided, and three percent (3%) say they’ll vote for some other candidate, according to the latest Rasmussen Reports telephone poll in the state. Rick Merkt, an assemblyman from Morris, is also running, but he did not qualify to participate in the first debate between the frontrunners. The candidates debated Tuesday night for the first time. That was also the night of the survey."

2010 NY Gov: Cuomo Bests Paterson In Hypothetical Matchup

Posted May 15, 2009 at 1:24 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

Things continue to look bleak for Democratic incumbent Governor David Paterson for his 2010 reelection bid: A new Quinnipiac poll finds Andrew Cuomo (D) beating Gov. David Paterson (D), 62% to 17%. Paterson's 61% to 28% disapproval is at an historic low, even below former Governor Spitzer during his infamous resignation last year. "With support in every demographic sub-group, including a 22-point lead among black voters, Attorney General Andrew Cuomo trounces Gov. Paterson in a Democratic primary. Paterson has time to turn things around before the 2010 election, of course, but there's not a hint of good news for him in this poll." The general election match up, though close, bodes well for Cuomo: he leads Rudy Giuliani (R), 47% to 41%.

NY Gov. David Paterson Sinks Even Lower In Polls

Posted May 11, 2009 at 2:01 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

Can unpopular Democratic NY Governor David Paterson get reelected next year? The answer may well be no, if a new Marist Institute poll is correct: "Not quite one-fifth of New York registered voters statewide — 19% — report that Governor David Paterson is doing either an excellent or good job in office. That is a seven percentage point drop since The Marist Poll last asked this question in its Masrch 2009 survey. In fact, voters are so dissatisfied with the governor’s performance that a majority — 51% — say they would prefer his sex scandal-plagued predecessor, Eliot Spitzer, be in office than he. On both questions, Paterson doesn’t even receive backing from a majority of voters in his own party. Just 22% of Democrats think he is doing well as governor, and half say, 'Resurrect Spitzer!'" PollTrack suggests that these numbers are striking, lower than any NY state governor in the history of statewide polling. It's hard to see how Paterson could win his party's nomination at this point--especially running against the state very popular Democratic Atoorney General Andrew Cuomo--let alone the 2010 general election.

Democrat Gov. Corzine Still In Trouble In New Jersey

Posted May 07, 2009 at 1:18 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

Democratic Givernor Jon Corzine is still in trouble in his 2009 reelection bid: "In a state that favors Democrats, the Republicans are hanging tight in their bid to oust incumbent Governor Jon Corzine. The latest Monmouth University/Gannett New Jersey Poll finds former U.S. Attorney Chris Christie with a small lead over Corzine, while the incumbent has a slight advantage over former Bogota mayor Steve Lonegan. But voters seem to be wondering why no one is talking about their number one issue – property taxes. Governor Corzine’s job performance rating currently stands at 40% approve to 49% disapprove, a slight improvement from the 34%-51% rating he held in February. Currently, 43% of voters have a personally favorable view of Jon Corzine compared to 47% who have an unfavorable view. In head-to-head match-ups with the two leading GOP contenders, Jon Corzine trails Chris Christie by 39% to 35% among registered voters. However, Corzine leads Steve Lonegan by 37% to 33%." PollTrack suggests that despite his lead over Lonegan, Corzine's standing is SO low relative to that of a popular incumbent that they strongly suggest a rough road ahead for the Democrat, numbers nowhere near where a sitting governor wants to be at this stage in a re-election campaign.

One Democrat Jumps To Lead In Party Primary for VA Governor

Posted May 01, 2009 at 1:53 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

One candidate appears to have an advantage in the 2009 Democratic primary for Virginia Governor: A new SurveyUSA poll in Virginia finds Terry McAuliffe leading his rivals for the Democratic gubernatorial nomination with 38%, followed by Creigh Deeds and Brian Moran each with 22%." The survey also reports that "64% of likely primary voters say they may change their mind," thus blunting the overall result of the poll.

NJ Democrat Gov. Jon Corzine Not Favored For Re-Election This November

Posted Apr 09, 2009 at 1:55 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

A new poll continues to show incumbent New Jersey Democratic governor Jon Corzine behind in his effort to win reelection this November: Gov. Jon Corzine continues to struggle with the budget and New Jersey voters even as he officially filed for re-election. According to the most recent poll by Fairleigh Dickinson University’s PublicMind, 49% of voters disapprove of the job Corzine is doing while 40% approve. 'Sometimes timing is everything,' said Peter Woolley, a political scientist and director of the poll. 'He’s the only incumbent governor in the country up for election this year as the financial crisis hits.'  Among Democrats, six of ten approve of the job he is doing (61%), but independents disapprove by more than two to one (58 to 25) and Republicans disapprove by almost five to one (77-16). Just 33% say they have a favorable opinion of Corzine, while 56% have an unfavorable opinion, a shift from measurements taken a month ago that showed 38% favorable and 48% unfavorable. In a general election trial heat against Republicans, Corzine continues to trail former U.S. Attorney Chris Christie by nine points, 33%-42%. Just 58% of Democrats line up behind Corzine while 78% of Republicans prefer Christie. Christie’s name recognition continues to climb, to 62% from 57% a month ago; and 31% have a favorable opinion of the former U.S. Attorney for New Jersey while 12% have an unfavorable view."

NY Gov. David Paterson Tanks In Polls

Posted Apr 01, 2009 at 1:49 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

According to a Siena Research Institute survey, Democratic New York Governor David Paterson is very unpopular with voters: "David Paterson is now viewed unfavorably by twice as many New York voters as those who view him favorably, and four times as many voters rate the job he is doing as Governor as only fair or poor compared to those who say he is doing an excellent or good job as Governor . . . . If a Democratic primary for Governor were held today, Paterson would lose to Attorney General Andrew Cuomo by nearly four-to-one, and Paterson would be easily beaten in a general election by former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani."


Siena continues: "Paterson is viewed favorably by 29% of voters and unfavorably by 58%, down from last month‟s 40-47% rating. His job performance rating is 19% positive, 78% negative down from 28-69% last month. Only 14% of voters are prepared to elect Paterson as Governor in 2010, compared to 67% who prefer “someone else.” That‟s down from 19-57% last month."

Democrat Governor Corzine Falls Further Behind In New Jersey

Posted Mar 18, 2009 at 1:12 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

According to a Quinnipiac University Poll, Democratic incumbent Jon Corzine has falling further behind his hypothetical Republican challenger in New Jersey's 2009 Governor's race. Republican Christopher Christie leads Corzine 46% to 37%, "even though 61 percent of voters don't know enough about the former U.S. Attorney to form an opinion of him." Taken before Corzine's Draconian budget was released, his numbers could be descend even more in the next few weeks. Rasmussen reports an even bigger deficit for Corzine, indicating that he has has now fallen behind Republican challenger Christopher J. Christie by 15 points – 49% to 34%. (7% prefer some other candidate, and 10% are undecided.)

NY Governor's Approval Rating Perilously Low

Posted Mar 17, 2009 at 1:07 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

Yesterday, PollTrack reported that New York Governor David Paterson may be in trouble with his 2010 reelection effort. But speculating on the future is not the only gauge of the Democrat's troubles. Over the past two months, his support in the state has eroded dramatically. His current standing with voters is no less than dismal according to a recently released statewide survey: "39% of New York voters now approve of Paterson’s performance as governor, including just 7% who Strongly Approve . . . 59% disapprove of the job the Democratic governor is doing, with 30% who Strongly Disapprove. Only 1% don’t have an opinion." Paterson's dismal approval rating represents a 25% drop since early-January.

NY Democratic Gov. Paterson In Bad Political Shape

Posted Mar 16, 2009 at 1:38 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

A new poll suggests that New York Democratic Governor David Paterson is in bad shape for his upcoming 2010 reelection bid. On all the key measures of public perceptions, the Manhattanville College poll reports Governor Paterson’s broad weakness:

"Governor Paterson is rated poorly when compared to other current and former officials in the State. He is rated favorably by only 41% of the votes and unfavorably by 46%. He is the only statewide official with an overall negative rating. Governor Paterson’s job performance is rated even more poorly by voters, with only 29% rating his performance positively and 66% negatively. The rating is weak across all regions of the state and by gender.If the election for Governor were held today, the majority of voters would prefer to vote for someone else other than Governor Paterson by a margin of 55% to 20% with 25% undecided. Governor Paterson does poorly across all regions and genders."

His current standing with voters is no better, according to another recently released survey: "39% of New York voters now approve of Paterson’s performance as governor, including just 7% who Strongly Approve . . . 59% disapprove of the job the Democratic governor is doing, with 30% who Strongly Disapprove. Only 1% don’t have an opinion." Paterson's dismal approval rating represents a 25% drop since early-January.

NJ Democratic Governor In Trouble in 2009 Reelection Campaign

Posted Mar 05, 2009 at 1:04 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

New Jersey Democratic Governor Jon Corzine is in serious trouble in his reelection bid this year. According to a Fairleigh Dickenson University Poll, "40% of voters approve of the job Corzine is doing while 46% disapprove--a reversal from January when 46% approved and 40% disapproved. Among Democrats, 58% approve and 28% disapprove with 14% unsure, a 2-to-1 margin in the governor’s favor, but independents disapprove by 2-to-1 and Republicans disapprove by 3-to-1.  More ominous is that among public employee households, 31% approve while 56% disapprove. That compares to an even split among all other households, 43%-44%." Even more ominous for Corzine: "In a trial heat against the leading Republican contender, Corzine trails former U.S. Attorney Chris Christie by 32%-41%.  In that heat, 73% of Republicans line up behind Christie, while just 55% of Democrats line up behind Corzine."

NY Democratic Governor David Paterson in Trouble With Voters

Posted Mar 04, 2009 at 1:33 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

According to a new poll, NY Governor David Paterson may be in serious trouble with voters. His job approval numbers are at the lowest point in the 27 years that the Marist College Institute for Public Opinion has been surveying public opinions of governor: "Only 26% of registered voters surveyed said Mr. Paterson was doing either a good or excellent job, while 71% said he was doing a fair or poor job. Even Eliot Spitzer had a higher approval rating a year ago, 30%, when he was the governor amid his prostitution scandal. The poll results indicate that voters believe Mr. Paterson is working hard and understands the state’s problems, but suggests people do not have confidence in his ability to lead. Among Democrats, Attorney General Andrew M. Cuomo trounces Mr. Paterson in a hypothetical primary matchup, 62% to %. In a general election,Rudolph W. Giuliani would beat Mr. Paterson, 53% to 38%."

FL Republican Gov. Christ Well Situated For Either 2010 Reelection or US Senate Run

Posted Feb 24, 2009 at 1:56 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

According to a new Quinnipiac University poll, incumbent Republican Governor Charlie Crist is well situated for either reelection or a US Senate run in 2010. He would be heavily favored to win the GOP nomination for U.S. Senate and beats a generic Democrat handily in a general election match up, 48% to 25%. However, a plurality of respondents want Crist to remain as governor with 57% favoring his re-election.

Both New Governor and Senator in NY Trail Democratic Rivals

Posted Feb 18, 2009 at 1:27 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

A new Quinnipiac University survey reveals that "both Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand (D-NY) and the man who appointed her, Gov. David Paterson (D) trail Democratic primary challengers in 2010. Attorney General Andrew Cuomo (D) trounces Paterson, 55% to 23%, in a possible gubernatorial primary. And Rep. Carolyn McCarthy (D-NY) beats Gillibrand in a Democratic U.S. Senate primary, 34% to 24%, with 39% still undecided. Quinnipiac observes: "The Caroline Kennedy mix-up still haunts Gov. David Paterson... Three quarters of New Yorkers heard about the nasty news leaks. They think Kennedy was treated unfairly, but most don't blame Paterson for the leaks."

Meg Whitman Files For 2010 Run For CA Governor

Posted Feb 10, 2009 at 3:23 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

The Sacramento Bee reports that former eBay chief executive Meg Whitman officially submitted her bid to explore a run for governor on Monday: "The move by the billionaire businesswoman sets up what's expected to be an expensive, 17-month auction between herself and Insurance Commissioner Steve Poizner in the 2010 Republican primary."

 

Republicans Favored in 2009 Governor's VA Governor's Race

Posted Feb 09, 2009 at 2:16 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

According to a Rasmussen Reports survey, the Republicans appear to have an advantage in the upcoming 2009 Virginia Governor's race: "Republican Attorney General Robert F. McDonnell has a three-to-nine point lead against three hopefuls for the Democratic nomination in this year’s closely-watched Virginia gubernatorial contest . . . the lone Republican gubernatorial candidate topping his best-known opponent, Terry McAuliffe, by seven points, 42% to 35%. In December, he held a five-point edge over McAuliffe, a longtime Clinton confidant, major Democratic fund-raiser and former national party chairman. McDonnell is even further ahead of Rep. R. Creigh Deeds of Bath County – 39% to 30%. The two men were tied two months ago. Brian J. Moran, a former state delegate from Alexandria, led McDonnell by four points in the earlier survey but now trails by three, 39% to 36%."

NJ Democratic Governor May Be In Trouble

Posted Jan 19, 2009 at 1:48 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

One major race in 2009 with a cloudy future: New Jersey Governor. With popular former U.S. Attorney Chris Christe deciding to seek the Republican nomination run against Democratic Gov. Corzine,  the outcome of the matchup is far from certain. A Monmouth University/Gannett New Jersey poll conducted last week reports that Corzine maintains a "statistically insignificant" 2% lead--38% to 36%--over Christie, with 2% preferring another candidate, 4% not intending to vote, and 21% undecided. "If voters are asked which way they'd come down between Corzine and a Republican other than Christie, Corzine runs ahead 36% to 32% with 18% undecided and 12% saying it depends who the Republican was