Without the presence of a Tea Party candidate on the ballot in Nevada's 2010 US Senate race, incumbent Democrat and Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid appears to be failing: In hypothetical match-ups, a new Rasmussen survey reports that Republican Sue Lowden defeats Reid by a large margin, 51% to 38%. Similarly, Republican Danny Tarkanian trounces the Democrat, 50% to 37%.

A new survey reports that there is no clear leader in the 2010 Ohio US Senate race: "None of the top contenders  . . . are gaining ground at this point, with Republican Rob Portman still holding a modest lead. The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of likely voters in the state finds Portman leading Lieutenant Governor Lee Fisher 44% to 39% . . . Portman holds a 43% to 37% lead over Secretary of State Jennifer Brunner, and this, too, is little changed from the previous survey. Six percent (6%) opt for another candidate, with 15% more undecided."

In an indication that the incumbent Democratic senior US Senator is New Jersey may be loosing ground politically in his state, a new Fairleigh Dickinson PublicMind Poll reports that Republican Tom Kean Jr. is in a statistical dead heat with Democrat Bob Menendez in a hypothetical rematch of their 2006 U.S. Senate race, 39% to 38%, with 17% undecided. Although the race is more than two years away, the poll suggests the dramatic erosion of Democratic support in the state following the defeat of incumbent Democratic Governor Jon Corzine last November.

A Mason-Dixon poll in Nevada indicates that incumbent Democratic U.S. Senator Harry Reid actually leads his re-election race with 36% of the vote when matched against a generic Republican who would get 32% and a Tea Party candidate who would get 18%. The ability of the Tea Party candidate to siphon off votes from the Republican candidate is enough to shift the outcome: in head-to-head match ups with named Republicans, Reid continues to trail by  significant margins. Sue Lowden beats Reid, 52% to 39%; Danny Tarkanian would prevail over Reid, 51% to 40%.

A new Franklin & Marshall poll in Pennsylvania finds Republican Pat Toomey leading both potential democratic rivals Sen. Arlen Specter and Rep. Joe Sestak by double-digits in general election match ups. Toomey bests Specter, 44% to 34%, and leads Sestak, 38% to 20%. Nevertheless, with a large undecided block, PollTrack continues to rate the race a toss up.

Incumbent US Senator and Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid continues to trail his Republican rival in Nevada, now by -8%.

With Democratic US Senator Evan Bayh out, PollTrack now changes its preliminary read of the state's upcoming Senate race:

Who is ahead in the possible Democratic primary for US Senate in New York? A new Siena College poll finds incumbent Kirsten Gillibrand (D-NY) holds a significant +26% lead over former Rep. Harold Ford--42% to 16%. In general election hypothetical match-ups, Gillibrand trails former GOP Gov. George Pataki, 47% to 41%, but she trounces Daily News publisher Mort Zuckerman, 49% to 29%.

In hypothetical match ups in the Ohio US Senate race--against Democrats Lee Fischer and Jennifer Brunner--Republican Rob Portman leads by +4% on average. Still, PollTrack rates the race too-close-to-call.

According to PollTrack's first read of the 2010 US Senate Race in Louisiana, incumbent Republican David Vitter, though damaged by scandal, maintains the clear edge in reelection bid. PollTrack First Call: Likely Republican

According to PollTrack's first read of the 2010 US Senate Race in Indiana, incumbent Democrat Evan Bayh's departure greatly improves Republican chances in the state. PollTrack First Call: Toss Up.

According to PollTrack's first read of the 2010 US Senate Race in Wisconsin, incumbent Democrat Russ Feingold is likely to win reelection. PollTrack First Call: Likely Democrat

According to PollTrack's first read of Democrat US Senator Arlen Specter's 2010 reelection bid in Pennsylvania, neither party has an edge. PollTrack First Call: Toss Up.

According to PollTrack's first read of the 2010 US Senate Race for Delaware's open seat, popular US Congressman Mike Castle has the edge in this Democrat-leaning state. PollTrack First Call: Likely Republican

According to PollTrack's first read of the 2010 US Senate Race for Ohio's open seat, neither party has an edge in this key swing state. PollTrack First Call: Toss Up.

According to PollTrack's first read of the 2010 US Senate Race for Illinois's open seat, neither party has an edge in this Democrat-leaning state. PollTrack First Call: Toss Up.

According to PollTrack's first read of the 2010 US Senate Race in New York, incumbent Democrat Kirsten Gillibrand appears to have the edge in this Democrat-leaning state. PollTrack First Call: Leans Democrat.

According to PollTrack's first read of the 2010 US Senate Race in California, incumbent Democrat Barbara Boxer appears to have the edge in this Democrat-leaning state. PollTrack First Call: Leans Democrat.

According to PollTrack's first read of the 2010 US Senate Race in North Carlina, incumbent Republican Richard Burr is showing surprising strength after a rocky year. PollTrack First Call: Leans Republican

According to PollTrack's first read of the 2010 US Senate Race in New Hampshire, the open seats leans red. PollTrack First Call: Leans Republican

According to PollTrack's first read of the 2010 US Senate Race in Kentucky, the open seats seams a tough win for the Democrats. PollTrack First Call: Leans Republican

According to PollTrack's first read of the 2010 US Senate Race in Nevada, incumbent Democrat Harry Reid has fallen behind in his race for reelection. PollTrack First Call: Leans Republican

According to PollTrack's first read of the 2010 US Senate Race for Missouri's open seat, neither party has a clear edge in this traditional bellwether state (though it has been trending slightly Republican in recent years, it's other US Senator is a moderate Democrat). Still, PollTrack sees the race as slightly more favorable to the GOP. PollTrack First Call: Leans Republican

According to PollTrack's first read of the 2010 US Senate Race in the key swing state of Colorado, incumbent Democrat Michael Bennet has fallen behind in his race for reelection. PollTrack First Call: Leans Republican

According to PollTrack's first read of the 2010 US Senate Race in Arkansas, incumbent Democrat Blanche Lincoln has fallen behind in his race for reelection. The latest Public Policy Polling survey has Rep. John Boozman (R) leading Sen. Blanche Lincoln (D) by a a very wide margin, 56% to 33%. PollTrack First Call: Leans Republican

According to PollTrack's first read of the 2010 US Senate Race in two states with dominant political parties and strong candidates representing those parties--Connecticut (Democrat) and North Dakota (Republican)--the races are easy calls at this point. In ND, a very likely GOP win would represent a Republican pick up (it had previously been held by Democrat Byron Dorgan). CT's seat was held by retiring Democrat, Christopher Dodd, and should remain in Democratic hands.  

PollTrack First Call North Dakota: Safe Republican

For the next two weeks, PollTrack will be offering daily analysis of each of the competitive upcoming US Senate races. PollTrack's cycle of analysis will continue periodically until our US Senate map goes live in the spring. Stay tuned. Today's races: Connecticut and North Dakota.

A poll just out from Rasmussen Reports suggests that incumbent Wisconsin Democratic US Senator Russ Feingold may be in trouble in his 2010 reelection bid. It finds Republican Tommy Thompson overtaking Russ Feingold, 47% to 43%, in a possible U.S. Senate match-up.

According to a post-election Washington Post survey of Massachusetts voters, "dissatisfaction with the direction of the country, antipathy toward federal-government activism and opposition to the Democrats' health-care proposals drove the upset election of Republican senatorial candidate Scott Brown in Massachusetts . . . Sixty-three percent of Massachusetts special-election voters say the country is seriously off track, and Brown captured two-thirds of these voters on Tuesday. In November 2008, Obama won decisively among the more than 80 percent of Massachusetts voters seeing the country as off-course . . . Nearly two-thirds of Brown's supporters say their vote was intended at least in part to express opposition to the Democratic agenda in Washington, but few say the senator-elect should simply work to stop it. Three-quarters of those who voted for Brown say they would like him to work with Democrats to get Republican ideas into legislation in general; nearly half say so specifically about health-care legislation."

In what may well be a testament to the unpopularity of health care reform--and perhaps declining support for the Obama administration--an AFL-CIO survey of union members found that Republican Scott Brown's victory in last Tuesday's special election for the US Senate in Massachusetts "was lifted by strong support from union households." The poll found that 49% of union households in the state supported Brown, while 46% supported Democrat Martha Coakley.

Is Ohio--one of a handful of key bellwether states--trending Republican? A new Wenzel Strategies poll suggests that the answer may be yes. In the November's race for governor, Republican John Kasich leads incumbent Democratic Gov. Ted Strickland, 43% to 33%. In the U.S. Senate race, Republican Rob Portman bests Democrat Lee Fischer, 37% to 31%, and leads Democrat Jennifer Brunner (D), 40% to 35%.

It's minutes before the polls close in MA. On the ground reports from both campaigns suggest that voting may have been lighter in traditionally Democratic strongholds (relative to Republican districts). While PollTrack cannot confirm this, a reading of on-the-ground journalistic accounts of voting today seems to confirm parallel this view. Still, without exit polls (which were not arranged by news organizations), this may be a long night.

While reports of heavy turnout might help Democrat Martha Coakley--suggesting that the Democrats and their union supporters are churning out the vote--it could easily work the other way. It appears from polling that the most enthusiastic and fired up voters are Republicans and disaffected independents, who see their vote as a chance to scuttle a health care reform package that they do not support. Thus, it is almost impossible to predict the implications of heavy turnout. Does it suggest that the Democratic machine turned out its base, perhaps sufficiently to overtake Republican Scott Brown's polling advantage? Or are Brown's supports so fired up that they are willing to brave cold, wind, and snow to cast their vote to assure Brown's victory? That the inclement weather may keep elderly voters--who trend more conservative--from the polls, helps Coakley. That it also may dissuade younger voters, who have a poor record of participation to begin with, could very well help Brown. Stay tuned.

Here are some Election Day updates care of WBZ TV Boston on today's special election in Massachusetts:

LATE-POLLING: A Suffolk University survey taken Saturday and Sunday showed Brown with double-digit leads in three communities the poll identified as bellwethers: Gardner, Fitchburg and Peabody. Internal statewide polls for both sides showed a dead heat.

 
TURNOUT: In contrast to the light turnout for the party primaries last month, there are already signs of a heavy turnout . . .
Massachsuetts Secretary of State William Galvin told WBZ he expects about 40-percent of voters to turn out for the special election statewide. Galvin said about 800,000 came out for the primaries and he believes that should double to 1.6 million based on the intense interest in this campaign.

The FINAL PollTrack polling average for tomorrow's special election in Massachusetts to fill the U.S. Senate seat of the late-Ted Kennedy shows Republican Scott Brown with a decided advantage: he leads his Democratic opponent, Martha Coakley: 50% to 46%.

FINAL AVERAGE: Republican Scott Brown: +4%

A just released Politico/Insider Advantage survey shows Republican Scott Brown up by +9.1% in his race to fill the U.S. seat in Massachusetts. Brown leads Democrat Martha Coakley, 52.3% to 43.1%. Significantly, Brown is over the all-important 50% mark in this poll.

PollTrack's polling average in the Massachusetts U.S. Senate special election to fill the seat of the late-Ted Kennedy gives Republican Scott Brown a clear lead over Democrat Martha Coakley: 49.8% to 45.8%, for an aggregate advantage of +4%. More ominous for Coakley: Brown's numbers hover at the 50% mark. Still, turnout could make the race much closer (or increase Brown's lead).

Intrade, the futures trading website, offers yet another bit of evidence that the momentum is swinging towards the Republican in Massachusetts U.S. Senate Race: As of Sunday evening--after months of Democrat Marta Coakley leading by a wide margin--traders are now betting on Republican Scott brown to win: 70 to 38.9.

With Martha Coakley's internal poll showing her two points behind as of Friday night (47% to 45%)--taken before her on-air gaffe in which she called the Boston Rox Sox great and Scott Brown supporter, Curt Schilling, a New York Yankee fan--the race looks very close. PollTrack believes that as of this morning the momentum remains with Republican Brown, spurred, perhaps, by a Coakley blooper that suggests that she, the state's attorney general, is a bit of touch with her constituents, not to mention recent state history (think 2004 World Series).

Given public perceptions of Coakley as aloof--the increasing perception among the electorate that the President and the Democratic party is out of touch with their immediate needs, especially with regard to their emphasis on health care over job creation in a time of dire unemployment--Brown's populist rhetoric appears to be resonating, even in true blue Massachusetts.

The bigger problem for the Democrats: even if Coakley scrapes by, a close win in a state that has not elected a Republican U.S. Senator in more than 30 years, suggests real trouble in lesser blue states--like New York, Delaware, and California--and potential routes in swing states, like Ohio, Florida, Colorado, North Carolina, and . . . and we recently witnessed, Virginia.

Here's another fact that should have Democrats very nervous about the upcoming special election for U.S. Senate in Massachusetts: even if the specter of possible defeat drives complacent Democrats to the polling booth next Tuesday, this may not be enough to offset the enthusiasm of Republican voters AND, as some polling data suggests, that independents are breaking for Republican Scott Brown by a three-to-one margin. One even more important observation: independents outnumber Democrats in the state by a wide margin: 51% of registered voters are unaffiliated, 37% are registered as Democrats, and 11% as Republicans.

A third poll now gives Republican Scott Brown the edge against his Democratic Challenger Martha Coakley in the race to succeed the late-U.S. Senator Ted Kennedy in Massachusetts: the American Research Group poll finds Brown ahead of Coakley, 48% to 45%, for a lead of +3%.

PollTrack's first polling average for the special US Senate race in Massachusetts, has Republican Scott Brown leading Democrat Martha Coakley by +2%--48% to 46%. Stay tuned throughout the weekend for updated averages and analysis of new polling in the state.

PollTrack's reading of the latest polls in the MA US Senate race suggests that Democrat Martha Coakley, once thought to be unbeatable in this bluest of blue states, is in serious trouble. One source reports that Coakley's internal poll for Thursday night showed her trailing Republican Scott Brown by three points, 47% to 44%. A new Suffolk University/7News poll in Massachusetts shows Brown leading Coakley, 50% to 46% with only 1 percent of voters remaining undecided. A Coakley loss would spell serious trouble, as well, for Democrats in this November's mid-term election. With MA Governor Deval Patrick's approval rating in the mid-20% range--and the president's standing in the state suffering as well--the Democratic edge in Massachusetts appears to have evaporated this year. (MA is also a state with an exceptionally large block of independent voters, now going by a significant margin to Brown.)

Two venerable political analysts--Charlie Cook and Stuart Rothenberg-now rate the special election in Massachusetts to fill the US Senate seat of the late-Edward Kennedy as a toss up. Calling the race "one of the toughest we've had in a long time, " Cook observes: "The modern electoral history of federal statewide races in Massachusetts argues strongly that while state Attorney General Martha Coakley, the Democratic nominee, could have a close race, at the end of the day it's unlikely that she ends up losing. After all, no Republican Senate candidate has won in the Bay State since 1972. But the non-quantitative arguments are quite strong. Republican Scott Brown has been the superior candidate with, by a long shot, the better campaign... To the extent Coakley may still have a tiny advantage, it appears not to meet the normal standard we have for a 'lean' rating: a competitive race but one in which one party has a clear advantage. We see no clear advantage."

PollTrack suggests another reason to rate the race a toss up: the extreme unpopularity of incumbent Democratic governor Deval Patrick, whose reelection numbers hover around 30% (his approval rating is even lower).

The reelection of US Senate majority leader Harry Reid is far from assured, according to new Las Vegas Review-Journal poll. A whopping 52% of Nevadans are unhappy with Reid, the highest  "unfavorable" rating he's received to date. Just 33% have a favorable view. In hypothetical match ups against three Republicans, Reid loses to each by as much as ten points: Sue Lowden (50% to 40%);  (Danny Tarkanian, 49% to 41%); and even Sharron Angle (45% to 40%).

Yesterday, PollTrack reported that an internal Democratic poll indicated a big lead for Martha Caokley over her Republican opponent Scott Brown in the upcoming special election for US Senate in Massachusetts. Today, the pendulum swings the other way with a report a new Rasmussen survey reporting that the race is a dead heat, with Coakley barely leading leading Brown, 49% to 47%. Last week, Coakley led by +9% in the Rasmussen survey.

According to an internal Democratic poll obtained by Politico, "Martha Coakley enjoys a solid, double-digit lead in the Massachusetts Senate special election.  The survey, conducted by longtime Democratic pollster Mark Mellman, has Democrat Coakley, the state attorney general, leading state Republican Sen. Scott Brown 50% to 36%.  Mellman’s survey has a similar margin to a Boston Globe poll, released Sunday, which had Coakley up by 15%. But this new poll has the attorney general enjoying a wider lead than in some other internal Democratic data." Stay tuned. 

Some polls showing the upcoming  Massachusetts U.S. Senate race close, while a new Boston Globe poll reports Democrat Martha Coakley (D), "buoyed by her durable statewide popularity, enjoys a solid, +15% lead" among likely voters over rival, Republican Scott Brown, 50% to 35%." When undecideds leaning toward a candidate are included, Coakley's lead grows to +17 points--53% to 36%. Yet, a new Public Policy Polling survey finds the race a dead heat: with Brown actually leading Coakley by +1%--48% to 47%, "buoyed by a huge advantage with independents and relative disinterest from Democratic voters in the state." Stay tuned for more polling over the next few days. PollTrack's money is still on Coakley, though the outcome of the race is far from clear.

The Washington Post reports that former Republican US Senator George Allen "is thinking pretty seriously about public office, including a possible rematch against Democrat Jim Webb, who defeated Allen in 2006 by fewer than 10,000 votes." A just released poll (though it was taken in August) by Public Policy Polling in Virginia finds Allen leading Webb by an insignificant 44% to 43%. PPP writes: "The 'Macaca' incident certainly played a part in Allen's 2006 loss, but its being a terrible year for Republicans nationally may have played a bigger role. He would have survived in most other election cycles, and his present numbers are an indication that he's far from unelectable in the future."

With Chris Dodd bowing out for reelection, a new Public Policy Polling survey in Connecticut reports that Democratic Attorney General Richard Blumenthal leads all three Republicans in the U.S. Senate race by at least 30 points. Blumenthal bests Republicans Rob Simmons, 59% to 28%; Linda McMahon, 60% to 28%; and Peter Schiff, 63% to 23%. PPP writes: "Blumenthal is unusually popular, especially in hyper partisan times when voters like few politicians. 59% have a favorable opinion of him to just 19% who see him negatively. It's no surprise that he's liked by 71% of Democrats and 60% of independents, but even Republicans view him favorably by a 37/35 margin. It doesn't take a lot of hands to count the number of Democratic politicians with positive numbers among GOP voters these days... It would take an epic collapse for him not to be Connecticut's next Senator."

In the January 19th special election to fill the seat of late Senator Edward Kennedy in Massachusetts, "State Attorney General Martha Coakley holds a nine-point lead over her Republican rival, state Senator Scott Brown, in Massachusetts’ special U.S. Senate election to fill the seat of the late Edward M. Kennedy. A new Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of likely voters in the state finds Coakley ahead of Brown 50% to 41%. One percent (1%) prefer some other candidate, and seven percent (7%) are undecided."

Though his term as Nebraska's US Senator does not end until 2012, there is speculation that Democrat Ben Nelson may be in trouble in his home state. As Nebraska's Journal Star reports: "As a fresh poll measured the political cost of Sen. Ben Nelson's health reform vote, he prepared Tuesday to take his case directly to Nebraskans during Wednesday night's Holiday Bowl game. Nelson will air a new TV ad in which he attempts to debunk opposition claims that the Senate legislation represents a government takeover, and he makes the case for health care reform . . . The political damage Nelson may have incurred in providing the critical 60th vote that cleared the way for Senate passage of the health care reform bill showed up Tuesday in a poll released by Rasmussen Reports. The telephone survey of 500 Nebraskans, conducted Monday, suggested Republican Gov. Dave Heineman would defeat Nelson in a potential 2012 Senate race by a 61-30 margin. The poll showed Nelson with a 55 percent unfavorable rating and 64 percent disapproval for Democratic health care reform legislation."

In another sign that Democrats may suffer loses in the 2010 mid-term election, Sens. Christopher Dodd (D-CT), Blanche Lincoln (D-AR) and Harry Reid (D-NV) all now have disapproval ratings above 50%, according to recent polling. As Tom Jensen observes: "Politics is full of surprises and who knows what unexpected things will happen in the next year but if I had to pick three Senators running for reelection right now who will be cleaning out their offices at this time next year it would be Dodd, Lincoln, and Reid. Once voters have decided the disapprove of you it's very hard to overcome that. "

A new Rasmussen Reports survey suggests that the 2010 US Senate race in MO is very close between the two likely nominees for the open Senate seat: The poll of 500 likely voters gave Democratic Missouri Secretary of State Robin Carbahan a two point lead over Repubican Rep. Roy Blunt--46% to 44%.

A just released Quinnipiac University survey reports that if the 2010 US Senate Election in PA were held today, incumbent Senator Arlen Specter (D) and former Rep. Pat Toomey would be in a dead heat, tied at 44 percent. In the Democratic primary, Specter is surprisingly strong, boasting a 20 point lead over Rep. Joe Sestak (D-Pa.), 50 percent to 30 percent, according to the poll in the Democratic primary scheduled for April 2010.

According to a new Rasmussen Reports survey, former Lieutenant Governor Jane Norton appears to be the Republican with the best shot of beating either of the potential Democratic candidates in Colorado’s race for the U.S. Senate. According to the poll, Norton bests incumbent Democratic Senator Michael Bennet 46% to 37%. Benet was named to the Senate by Democratic Governor Bill Ritter after Senator Ken Salazar became secretary of the Interior. Eight percent (8%) prefer some other candidate, and eight percent (8%) are undecided. Additional bad news for the Democrats: Bennet "has a challenger in his own party, former state House Speaker Andrew Romanoff. Norton beats Romanoff 45% to 34%, little changed from the previous survey. Fifteen percent (15%) are undecided, while seven percent (7%) like another candidate."

Is Senator Harry Reid stewardship of health care legislation hurting his 2010 reelection chances in Nevada? According to Rasmussen, the answer may be yes: "Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid continues to lag behind all potential Republican challengers in next year’s U.S. Senate race in Nevada, according to new Rasmussen Reports telephone polling in the state. For now at least, his championing of the president’s health care plan appears to raise further red flags for the Democratic incumbent. Fifty-four percent (54%) of Nevada voters oppose the plan, while 44% favor it. More significantly, however, those numbers include 49% who strongly oppose the plan while only 23% strongly favor it."

Despite his commanding role as Majority Leader, Democratic US Senator Harry Reid is not very popular in Nevada, a problem that is imperiling his 2010 reelection effort: "Nevadans aren't warming up to Sen. Harry Reid, despite plenty of early advertising designed to boost his image, a new poll shows. Just 38% of respondents said they had a favorable opinion of the Democratic Senate majority leader, the same percentage as in October and 1 point higher than in August. The survey of 625 registered Nevada voters by Mason-Dixon Polling & Research suggests the promotional bombardment that Reid launched more than six weeks ago has yet to hit its target. "I'd be worried,' said Michael Franz, an assistant professor at Bowdoin College in Brunswick, Maine, who studies political advertising. 'I'd stop if I had aired ads for two or three weeks and it wasn't moving the needle.' According to the poll commissioned by the Review-Journal, 49% of respondents had an unfavorable opinion of Reid, while 13% were neutral." According to the survey, in hypothetical general election match ups, Sue Lowden (R) leads Reid, 51% to 41%, while Danny Tarkanian (R) leads 48% to 41%.

The notion that Democratic US Senator Chris Dodd of Connecticut is one of the most vulnerable incumbents is borne out by a new Rasmussen Reports survey. The poll finds Dodd attracting just 35% to 40% of the vote against three possible Republican challengers: "Former GOP Congressman Rob Simmons is still his toughest opponent, leading Dodd 48% to 35%. Seven percent (7%) prefer some other candidate in this contest, and 11% are undecided. Those figures are a slight improvement for Simmons since September. The newest Republican in the race, Linda McMahon, the ex-CEO of World Wrestling Entertainment, earns 44% of the vote to Dodd’s 38%. Eight percent (8%) opt for another candidate, with nine percent (9%) not sure. Long-shot candidate Peter Shiff, the widely-known president of Euro Pacific Capital, is essentially even with Dodd and holds a one-point edge, 40% to 39%. In their race, eight percent (8%) like some other candidate, and 14% are undecided."

According to the Associated Press, MA Attorney General "Martha M. Coakley [is] projected to win Tuesday's primary election in the race for the late Senator Edward M. Kennedy's storied seat . . . She [is] projected to face State Senator Scott Brown, a Republican, on Jan. 19. Massachusetts has not sent a Republican to the Senate in 37 years, so Ms. Coakley has the stronger chance of laying claim to the seat."

Talking Points Memo reports that the turnout in today's Democratic primary in the Massachusetts' US Senate race is exceedingly low: "As of 3 p.m. ET, only 35,000 people had voted in Boston, less than 10% of the city's registered voters. The Boston Herald speculates that the lower turnout could possibly benefit Rep. Mike Capuano, who is widely seen as the underdog against state Attorney General Martha Coakley. For what it's worth, Capuano's home town of Somerville, where he served as mayor before his election to Congress in 1988, is having a relatively higher turnout -- at 1 p.m., it was a whopping 12.5 percent."

With a spate of new endorsements from powerful Massachusetts politicos, Rep. Mike Capuano is now solidly in second place in the Democratic primary for the Massachusetts Senate special election, according to a new Rasmussen Reports poll of likely Democratic primary voters. State Attorney General Martha Coakley continues to leads the primary pack, at 36%. Capuano is in second at 21%. Investor Stephen Pagliuca and community activist Alan Khazei are tied for third at 14%.

Is former NYC Republican mayor Rudolph Giuliani the GOP's best hope of defeating incumbent US Senator Kristen Gillibrand next year? A new Rasmussen Reports poll has Giuliani leading Gillibrand, 53% to 40% among likely New York voters. The poll, conducted Nov. 23, is nearly identical to a Marist poll of registered voters reporting at +14% lead for Giuliani, 54% to 40%.

Political Wire wonders whether a new spate of political endorsements could slice into Attorney General Martha Coakley's lead in the Democratic primary to fill the US Senate seat vacated by the late-Edward Kennedy: "In a move that could shake up a fairly sleepy race, former Massachusetts Gov. Michael Dukakis endorsed Rep. Michael Capuano for the senatorial seat left open by the death of Ted Kennedy . . .In the last week, Capuano has also been endorsed by Nancy Pelosi and Diane Patrick, Gov. Deval Patrick's wife. With just over a week to go until the Democratic primary, all polls have shown Massachusetts Attorney General Martha Coakley (D) with double-digit leads over Capuano, who polls second, and political newcomers Alan Khazei (D) and Stephen Pagliuca (D) . . . Interestingly, the Boston Globe endorsed Khazei this morning."

According to a Rasmussen Reports survey in Arizona, incumbent US Senator John McCain may be in trouble in his 2010 reelection bid. McCain and GOP Rep. J. D. Haywoth are virtually tied in a Republican primary match-up for next year's Senate race: McCain leads Hayworth 45% to 43% percent, with anti-illegal immigration activist Chris Simox at 4%.

If the 2010 US Senate election in New York were help now, Rasmussen reports, Incumbent Democrat Kirsten Gillibrand would just squeak by her presumptive Republican challenger, former NY Governor George Pataki. In the hypothetical match up, Gillibrand bests Pataki, 45% to 42%. 

according to a Boston Globe poll, Democratic Attorney General Martha Coakley holds a solid lead in the four-way Democratic race for Ted Kennedy's open US Senate seat. Still, with just over two weeks until primary day, nearly three-quarters of likely voters have yet to decide who they will support. Coakley leads with 43%, followed by Rep. Michael Capuano (D) with 22%, Steve Pagliuca (D) with 15% and Alan Khazei (D) with 6%.

What a difference a year can make in politics. A new Quinnipiac University poll suggests that the Democratic brand--and President Obama--are both suffering a decline in overall support in the key swing state of Ohio: The poll indicates a shift toward the Republicans, exemplified by President Obama's disapproval rating in the (50%) which is now higher than his approval rating (45%). And Republican Bob Portman, a former House member from the Cincinnati area and the party-endorsed candidate for the Senate, now holds slight leads--of +3% and +4% respectively--over Democrats Lee Fisher, the lieutenant governor, and Jennifer Brunner, the Ohio secretary of state. Given the bellwether status of the state, these numbers could signal problems ahead for the Democrats, both in locally and nationally.

In the upcoming race to chose a Democrat to run in January's special election to fill the late Ted Kennedy's Senate seat in Massachusetts, Attorney General Martha Coakley is wll ahead of the pack: 'Coakley continues to dominate the Democratic primary race for the Senate seat held by Edward M. Kennedy until his death Aug. 25. She leads in nearly every category of voter, according to a Suffolk University/7 News poll. Coakley, the only statewide officeholder in the field of four candidates, has a plurality among male and female voters as well as across every region of the state. . . . Overall, the survey shows Coakley taking 44% of the primary vote, with Boston Celtics co-owner Stephen Pagliuca second at 17%. They are followed by Rep. Michael E. Capuano at 16% and Alan Khazei, co-founder of the community service program City Year, at 3%."

With the full House up for election next year, who's really ahead in terms of political support. The Congressional Generic ballot, which measures general support for the two major parties in these races, offers a snapshot of voter sentiment. Yet, given dramatic differences in likely voter models, three major polling organizations come out with startlingly different results. For the first time in months, for example, Republicans have moved ahead of Democrats by 48% to 44% among registered voters in the latest update on Gallup's generic congressional ballot for the 2010 House elections, after trailing by six points in July and two points last month. Two other pollsters also weigh in, with contradictory results:

Who will replace the late Senator Ted Kennedy in Massachusetts in January special election? Right now it looks like  Attorney General Martha Coakley is the heavy favorite in the Democratic primary to be held in December. A Lake Research survey in the state conducted for Coakley's campaign shows their client with a commanding lead. In a four-way race, Coakley leads with 47%, followed by Michael Capuano at 12%, Stephen Pagliuca at 4% and Alan Khazei at 1%. These results come very close to an independent poll released by Suffolk University last month.

Acording to a Rasmussen survey, things are looking very tight in next year's US Senate race in Ohio: "Next year’s U.S. Senate race in Ohio is a neck-and-neck battle for Republican Rob Portman no matter which Democratic candidate he faces, according to the first Rasmussen Reports Election 2010 survey in the state. Portman is in a virtual tie with Lieutenant Governor Lee Fisher 41% to 40%. Six percent (6%) of Ohio voters favor some other candidate, and 14% are undecided. The former GOP congressman is also essentially even with Ohio Secretary of State Jennifer Brunner, leading by a similarly insignificant 40% to 38% margin. Five percent (5%) prefer another candidate. Eighteen percent (18%) are not sure how they will vote in this race."

According to a recent poll, Democratic incumbent Senator Chris Dodd lags behind his hypothetical GOP challenger in his 2010 reelection race in Connecticut: Dodd trails Republican Rob Simmons, a former three-term congressman, by a significant margin. Simmons leads Dodd 49% to 39% percent  Businessman and former Ireland Ambassador Tom Foley, virtually unknown to Connecticut voters, also tops Dodd 43% to 40%.

A new Suffolk University poll in Massachusetts give Democratic Attorney General Martha Coakley a commanding lead for January's primary to replace Senator Edward Kennedy: "Voters were asked to choose from among potential Democratic Primary candidates, some of whom have since withdrawn from the fray. They chose Coakley (47 percent), Capuano (9 percent), U.S. Rep. Stephen Lynch (6 percent) and City Year founder Alan Khazei (3 percent). Thirty-three percent were undecided. Voters who chose Lynch were surveyed again after he dropped out of the race on Tuesday." Even in this four person race, PollTrack observes, Coakley is close to the all important 50% mark, an impressive showing.

While the Democratic brand has taken a bit of a beating in Ohio recently--the President's approval rating in the state is lower than the national average--the party's candidates for Senator in 2010 seem to have picked up steam: A new Quinnipiac poll reports a improvement for Democrats since their lackluster numbers this summer. The respective primaries of the two parties are as follows: [1] Democratic primary for the U.S. Senate: Lt. Gov. Lee Fisher has a 26% to 17% lead over Secretary of State Jennifer Brunner (D), with 55% still undecided. [2] In the GOP primary, former Rep. Rob Portman (R) leads businessman Tom Ganley (R), 27% to 9%, with 61% still undecided. In the general election, Democrat Fisher tops Portman, 42% to 31%, and beats Ganley 41% to 29%. Brunner tops Portman, 39% to 34%, and beats Ganley 39% to 31%.

According to a new Rasmussen survey, Colorado’s appointed U.S. Senator Michael Bennet is in trouble in his 2010 bid to fill out his full term. He now find himself in a toss-up with two potential Republican challengers, Weld County District Attorney Ken Buck and Aurora City Councilman Ryan Frazier. (Bennet leads Buck 43% to 37%. "With Frazier as the opponent, Bennet is essentially even. The numbers are 40% for Frazier and 39% for the incumbent." As Rasmussen correctly notes, "any incumbent who polls less than 50% is considered potentially vulnerable."

A new survey by Rasmussen finds a clear leader in the January 2010 race to replace Ted Kennedy for Massachusetts US Senator: "State Attorney General Martha Coakley is the early leader in the Democratic race to fill the U.S. Senate seat vacated by the death of longtime Massachusetts Senator Edward M. “Ted” Kennedy . . . Coakley, the only officially declared candidate for the post, [pulls in] 38% of the vote. But one-in-four primary voters (25%) are undecided. Next is Stephen Lynch, a U.S. congressman from South Boston, with 11% support, followed closed by Rep. Ed Markey, the state’s senior member of the U.S. Huse of Representatives, with 10%. 7% favor another congressman, Michael Capuano of Somerville, while just 3% support Rep. John Tierney, the U.S. congressman from Salem. Five percent (5%) prefer some other candidate."

If Massachusetts sticks to the succession law as now written, the special election for Ted Kennedy's US Senate seat would be held in January: Massachusetts Governor Deval Patrick has slated January 19, 2010 as the date voters will choose a successor to Senator Edward M. Kennedy. According to the Boston Globe,"State law requires the governor to set the process for a special election in motion “immediately’’ upon a Senate vacancy. [The Massachusetts Secretary of State] said he calculated the date after meeting with House Speaker Robert A. DeLeo, Senate President Therese Murray, and top Patrick aides. Under the schedule set by state law, a Jan. 19 election would require a Dec. 8 primary" PollTrack will have full coverage of the race once it's underway.

If former Republican Governor George Pataki runs against incumbent Senator Kirsten Gillibrand, he would have a slight edge in next year's race according to a new Siena College poll. In a hypothetical match up, the survey finds former Pataki leading Gillibrand, 42% to 39%. These numbers are so close--and so far away from next year's race--that they are statistically insignificant. Yet, in a sign of the Democrat's relative strength against a lesser known, and less popular Republican, she bests Long Island Rep. Peter King (R-NY), 46% to 24%.

According to an analysis by CQ Politics, the Democratic Party looks strong in the 2010 Congressional elections: "Democrats have a virtual lock on 198 seats for November 2010, and in another 31 districts the opportunities for a GOP upset are tenuous at best. Put those groups together and you have 229, well above the 218-seat majority threshold. In addition, one district that’s in Republican hands at the moment, which covers most of New Orleans, is expected to return to its Democratic roots next fall." Still, CQ Politics concludes that "Yet House election history alone gives the Republicans reason to hope for better results after the back-to-back setbacks of 2006 and 2008 thrust them deeply into the minority. The 2010 elections for the House will be the first since Barack Obama was elected president. With very rare exceptions over many decades, the party holding the White House has lost seats in the first such midterm election."

In presential races, Missouri and Ohio have been bellwethers of sorts. But can we say the same of these staes in the 2010 Congressional Election? The answer according to MSNBC First Read is, yes: "Without a doubt, the two biggest Senate battlegrounds next year will be in the Show Me State and Buckeye State, and they’ll give us a good read on the health of the two political parties. If the Democrats lose both, it will suggest that the party’s successes in these states from 2006-2008 -- including gubernatorial and senatorial wins in both states, as well as Obama winning in Ohio and narrowly losing in Missouri -- might have come to an end. But if Republicans lose both -- with well-known figures from Bush years at the top of the ticket (Roy Blunt in Missouri and Rob Portman in Ohio) -- that would suggest that the Bush and GOP brands are still major problems for the party. Bottom line: The best way to judge who "wins" or "loses" the 2010 midterms will be in these two states, pure and simple. And they will be the most dominant races the media will focus on next year."

Incumbent US Senator Kirsten Gillibrand has her work cut out for her in next's years Democratic primary in New York. According to A Rasmussen survey of likely Democratic voters, challenger, Democratic Congresswoman Caroline beats Gillibrand 33% to 27% in a hypothetical match-up. Two things to consider: neither woman is well-known to New York voters, the number of undecideds remains very high at 33%, and the spread is just outside the 5 percent margin of error.In other words, the race remains a toss up according to PollTrack's calculations.

According to a new Public Policy Polling survey, "more than half of Minnesota voters say they have an unfavorable opinion of Norm Coleman and his actions during the recount. "52% of respondents said they now view Coleman negatively, with 38% still holding a positive opinion of him. 72% of Republicans but only 10% of Democrats give him good reviews, and independents are split 49/37 against him as well. 54% of voters in the state said the way he handled the recount against Al Franken made them less likely to support Coleman in the future for Governor or some other office, compared to 26% who said it made them more inclined to vote for him in a later contest."

According to a new DailyKos/Research 2000 poll on the 2010 election cycle in Ohio reports that if the election were held now, Democratic Gov. Ted Strickland would lead Republican John Kasich in the gubernatorial race, 44% to 39%. In the U.S. Senate race, the Democratic primary is unclear, with no real leader and the lion's share of voters undecided at this early stage: Democrat Lee Fisher leads Jennifer Brunner 22% to 17%. Significantly, both Democrats edge presumptive Republican nominee Rob Portman in a hypothetical general election match up. Fisher leads, 42% to 35%, and Brunner leads, 40% to 36%.

According to a recent Rasmusen survey, newly minted Minnesota Democratic US Senator, Al Franken, has a relatively low national approval rating: "44% of U.S. voters have an unfavorable opinion of former “Saturday Night Live” comedy . . . as he prepares to join the U.S. Senate as its newest Democratic member . . . 34% have a favorable opinion of Franken, who will be sworn in today as [the next] senator from Minnesota. 22% are not sure what they think of him." Rasmussen alsocorrectly points out that "it is fairly typical for individual legislators to have negative favorability ratings on a national basis."

Republican Norm Coleman has conceded the 2008 US Senate race in Minnesota to Democrat Al Franken, after the state Supreme Court ruled this afternoon that Franken won. The court ruled unanimously in Franken's favor.

Former Republican, now turned Democratic, US Senator Arlen Specter is in deep trouble in his 2010 PA reelection bid, according to a new Franklin and Marshall survey: His job approval rating has dropped from 52% to 34% over the past three months. Even more ominous for Specter is that the proportion of state residents who believe he deserves re-election has declined from 40% to 28%. His numbers are tepid even among members of his recently adopted party: 43% of Democrats say Specter deserves re-election; 39% say no. In a hypothetical primary match up with Rep. Joe Sestak (D-PA), Specter leads 33% to 13%. Nevertheless, and quite significantly, 48% remain undecided.

A new Public Policy Polling survey suggests that both potential Democratic nominees in Ohio's 2010 US Senate race would defeat their Republican rival in a hypothetical match up in the race to succeeded retiring GOP Sen. George Voinovich: Lee Fisher leads Rob Portman, 41% to 32%; Jennifer Brunner holds a similar 40% to 32% advantage over Portman. PPP continues: "Anyone trying to figure out whether Brunner or Fisher would make a stronger general election candidate or which has a leg up in the primary will not find it from this poll, as their numbers are nearly identical across the board."

A poll out from Rasmussen reports that voters would prefer that incumbent (and embattled) Illinois US Senator Roland Burris not seek reelection in 2010. The Democrat, who was appointed to fill the seat of President Obama, is not popular: "61% of voters now say they would definitely vote against [the Senator] if he runs for a full term in 2010 . . . That result is up from 54% back in April. Burris was named to the Senate by since-impeached Governor Rod Blagojevich . . . 6% of voters would definitely vote for Burris, while 32% say their vote would depend on who runs against him."

In a state that is trending slightly Democratic these days--Obama won it in 2008--the Democrats may have an edge in the 2010 US Senate Race. Public Policy Polling reports that a mere 29% of North Carolina voters think incumbent Republican senator Richard Burr deserves another term, "with 49% saying it’s time to give someone else a chance . . . 22% are unsure. Even among Republican voters just 49% say Burr deserves another term. 34% of independents and 11% for Democrats do. These numbers reflect one aspect of Burr’s precarious position that has not gotten a lot of play, which is that even voters in his own party are not that enthused about him, something that could pose a problem in turning out GOP voters with this race at the top of the ticket next year. Tested against a generic Democratic candidate, Burr trails 41-38. One thing he does have working in his favor is a 39-32 lead with independents, but he’s not showing the level of crossover support at this point that he would need to get reelected.

A Quinnipiac University survey suggests that the propects of incumbent Democratic  Senator Christopher Dodd have much improved in his 2010 reelection bid: The poll finds Dodd gaining on former Rep. Rob Simmons (R-CT). However, Simmons still leads by six points, 45% to 39%, in a 2010 Senate match up. Simmons led by 16 points in early April. Against State Sen. Sam Caligiuri (R), Dodd leads 41% to 39%." Still much work lies ahead for dodd if he is to move into a comfortable position for reelection. PollTrack, at this early stage, rates the race a toss-up.

Former GOP New York Governor George Pataki would make a formidable opponent against Democratic US Senator Kirsten Gillibrand in her 2010 reelection effort. Indeed, with a relative low approval rating, the Democrat may have a tough reelection race. A new Siena Institute poll reports:  "While 27 percent of voters are prepared to elect her Senator in 2010, 39 percent of voters prefer 'someone else.' This is a significant improvement for Gillibrand since April when it was 20-47 percent. In head-to-head matchups, Gillibrand leads Nassau County Congressman Peter King 48-26 percent (up slightly from 47-23 percent in March). But, significantly, she remains tied with Pataki 43-43 percent (was 41-41 percent in March)."

A very interesting survey from Public Policy Polling takes stock of the approval ratings of a number of US Senators. The highest approval rating of the lot: Democrat Amy Klobuchar from Minnesota. The lowest: embattled Illinois Democratic Roland Burris, who replace Barack Obama. Here is the list:

According to a statewide poll in Missouri (Democracy Corps), Democrats may have the edge in the 2010 US Senate Race: "The closest state during the 2008 presidential election, Missouri shows early signs of opportunity for Democrats to pick up the senate seat currently held by Republican Kit Bond. [The survey] shows Secretary of State Robin Carnahan leading Republican Congressman Roy Blunt 53 to 44 percent and leading former Treasurer Sarah Steelman 54 to 42 percent. At this early and uncertain stage, Carnahan starts off the contest with a strong personal and professional standing that puts her in a position to defeat either potential opponent. At the same time, it appears as if Steelman may be the tougher foe with a stronger profile than Blunt and the potential to run a fresh outsider candidacy that Blunt cannot offer."

According to Rasmussen Reports, 54% of Minnesota voters say Republican incumbent Norm Coleman should concede the race after months of legal challenges and let Al Franken be seated in the U.S. Senate. But 41% disagree . . . 87% of Democrats want Coleman to quit, while 77% of Republicans want him to stay in the fight. Most (53%) of those not affiliated with either major party say that Coleman should concede. 63% of all voters in the state are now convinced that Franken will ultimately be named the winner of the Senate race. Just 16% say Coleman will win in the end. 21% are still not sure who the winner will be."

In a hypothetical match up for the 2010 US Senate race in New Hampshire, it's the GOP candidate who has the edge: If Republican incumbent senator Judd Gregg does not choose to run in 2010, a likely decision at this point, "a likely Republican candidate is former Senator John Sununu, who lost his reelection battle to Shaheen in 2008. Sununu is well known, but his popularity is still suffering from the bruising 2008 election campaign. [In a recent poll] currently, 47% of New Hampshire adults have a favorable opinion of Sununu, 36% have an unfavorable opinion of him, 5% are neutral, and 12% don’t know enough about him to say. Sununu’s net favorability rating is +11%. Although Sununu has not indicated that he plans to run in 2010, a hypothetical matchup for Senate between Hodes and Sununu is likely to be a close match. If the election were held today, 46% of New Hampshire likely voters say they would vote for Sununu, 41% for Hodes, 2% for some other candidate, and 11% are not sure. Both candidates have the full support of their partisans, and Sununu holds a narrow 38% to 31% lead among Independents."

According to a Marist Institute Poll, Democratic NY Senator Kirsten Gillibrand is in a weak position, re: her 2010 reelection bid: "Hers was an atypical ascent to the Senate, and . . . Gillibrand has a long way to go to convince New Yorkers that she belongs there . . . 19% of voters today think she is doing an above average job.  And, more voters have formed an opinion of Gillibrand.  While half of voters back in March reported they weren’t quite sure how Gillibrand was doing, fewer — 43% — feel that way now.  However, there’s a rub.  More New York voters — 10% — currently view Gillibrand as doing a subpar job compared with two months ago when 5% shared that view. . . "

". . . . What are Senator Gillibrand’s chances for election to the U.S. Senate in 2010?  In a hypothetical matchup against former New York State Governor George Pataki, Gillibrand trails Pataki, 38% to 46%.  Gillibrand has lost ground to the former governor.  In Marist' March surve, Gillibrand led Pataki 45% to 41%.  Although still in the lead, Gillibrand has also lost support in a hypothetical pairing against U.S. Representative Peter King.  Currently, 42% of voters say they would back Gillibrand while 31% report they would vote for King.  27% are unsure.  However, in March, Gillibrand led King 49% to 28% with 23% reporting they were uncertain about whom they would support."

Is there a ray of hope for the GOP in its efforts to unseat newly minted Democrat US Senator Arlen Specter in his 2010 reelection drive in Pennsylvania? Perhaps: "Former Pennsylvania Gov. Tom Ridge (R) is considering running for the U.S. Senate nomination in his home state." According to Roll Call and reported by Political Wire, national Republicans "have been publicly and privately urging Ridge to consider a Senate bid since Sen. Arlen Specter (D-PA) announced earlier this week that he was switching parties and would run for re-election as a Democrat in 2010." Ridge's 'moderate politics and national profile would make him a more viable candidatei in the general election than former Rep. Pat Toomey (R-PA)." A new Susquehanna Polling & Research poll also finds Ridge would edge Specter, 39% to 38%, in a match up for U.S. Senate.

According to Political Wire, "as a result of Sen. Arlen Specter's decision to run for re-election as a Democrat, CQ Politics is changing its rating of the Pennsylvania U.S. Senate race to "Leans Democratic" from the tossup category, "No Clear Favorite." Similarly, the Cook Political Report changed its rating to Leans Democratic and the Rothenberg Political Report now rates the race as Clear Advantage for the Incumbent Party." What a difference a day can make.

One major reason why incumbent US Senator Arlen Spector jumped to the Democratic party yesterday: he remains very unpopular with fellow Republicans in Pennsylvania. According to a recent poll, the moderate sentaor trailed former conservative Congressman Pat Toomey by 21 points in "an early look at Pennsylvania’s 2010 Republican Primary. 51% of Republican voters statewide say they’d vote for Toomey while just 30% would support Specter. Specter is viewed favorably by 42% of Pennsylvania Republicans and unfavorably by 55%, according to a new Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of voters in the state. Those are stunningly poor numbers for a long-term incumbent senator. Specter was first elected to the Senate in 1980." The Senator chances appear much stronger with Democrats, with whom his approval rating has remained generally high in the state.

A new Minneapolis Star Tribune poll has bad news for 2008 Republican US Senate candidate: most voters want him to concede the race to Democratic challenger Al Franken, who now leads by several hundred votes: "Nearly two-thirds of Minnesotans surveyed think Norm Coleman should concede the U.S. Senate race to Al Franken, but just as many believe the voting system that gave the state its longest running election contest needs improvement. A new poll has found that 64% of those responding believe Coleman, the Republican, should accept the recount trial court's April 13 verdict that Democrat Franken won the race by 312 votes. Only 28% consider last week's appeal by Coleman to the Minnesota Supreme Court 'appropriate.' Large majorities of those polled said they would oppose any further appeal to the U.S. Supreme Court. Should Coleman win at the state Supreme Court, 57% of respondents said Franken should concede. And 73% believe Coleman should give up if he loses at the state's highest court."

It does not look like the endless US Senate race in Minnesota will end anytime soon, as the state's highest court has now delayed any ruling on the matter until at least June: "The state Supreme Court set the schedule today for the legal showdown between Democrat Al Franken and Republican Norm Coleman over the Senate seat that has been vacant since January. The schedule, set by the five justices who will hear Coleman's appeal, appears to hew more closely to his proposed schedule than the quicker one proposed by Franken. Coleman must file his brief in the case no later than next Thursday; Franken has until May 11 to do so. Coleman then has until May 15 to file his reply brief. The justices will hear the appeal on June 1." 

As if we needed another sign of the unpopularity of Connecticut Democratic US Senator Christopher Dodd, a local newspaper reports that "Dodd appears to have looked everywhere but his home state to fuel what pundits anticipate will be one of the most hotly contested races in the nation in 2010. The five-term incumbent reported raising just $4,250 from five Connecticut residents during the first three months of the year while raking in $604,745 from nearly 400 individuals living outside the state. While incumbents often turn to special interests for early campaign fundraising, Dodd's out-of-state total seems unusually high and comes at a time when he has been plagued by poor approval ratings among state voters." The paper concludes, ominously for Dodd: "The meager state fundraising effort also seems antithetical to a campaign strategy to rebuild confidence among Connecticut voters that he is on their side."

Nevertheless, according to the Boston Globe,  a support no more important than the president continues to express confidence in Connecticut's junior senator: "I can't say it any clearer: I will be helping Chris Dodd because he deserves the help. Chris is going through a rough patch. He just has an extraordinary record of accomplishment, and I think the people in Connecticut will come to recognize that... He always has his constituencies at heart, and he's somebody I'm going to be relying on and working very closely with to shepherd through the types of regulatory reforms we need."

The Republican candidate Norm Coleman--despite loosing his race for reelection to Democrat Al Franken, according to a three-judge panel--is clearly prepared to keep the seemingly endless race going. According to the Minneapolis Star Tribune: "Norm Coleman is hitting a different kind of campaign trail this week. The former Republican senator is using a media blitz to convince Minnesotans weary of the recount process and frustrated that they are still a senator short that he has good reason to appeal Democrat Al Franken's victory in the U.S. Senate election trial. And if the Minnesota Supreme Court sees it his way, he said, he thinks he can win."I'm hopeful. I think the law is on our side," he said. In a meeting Thursday with the Star Tribune editorial board, Coleman said that the principle of enfranchising legitimate voters is more important than leaving Minnesota without two senators for another few weeks. But Coleman also acknowledged that many Minnesotans are tired of the seemingly interminable recount process, in which he trails by 312 votes after Monday's ruling by a three-judge panel. He is doing a round of interviews, he said, "for the purpose of letting folks know that we're doing this for a reason."

A three judge panel in Minnesota has declared Democrat Al Franen the winner over Republican Norm Coleman in the November 2008 US Senate race: "Three judges soundly rejected Norm Coleman's attempt to reverse Al Franken's lead in the U.S. Senate election late Monday, sweeping away the Republican's claims in a blunt ruling Coleman promised to appeal. After a trial spanning nearly three months, the judicial panel dismissed Coleman's central argument that the election and its aftermath were fraught with systemic errors that made the results invalid. 'The overwhelming weight of the evidence indicates that the Nov. 4, 2008, election was conducted fairly, impartially and accurately,' the panel said in its unanimous decision. The panel concluded that Franken, a DFLer, 'received the highest number of votes legally cast' in the election. Franken emerged from the trial with a 312-vote lead, the court ruled, and "is therefore entitled to receive the certificate of election."

In the endless Minnesota recount, Democrat Al Franken's lead has expanded a bit: "Franken extended his lead over Republican Norm Coleman in Minnesota's U.S. Senate election, after the counting of about 350 formerly rejected absentee ballots this morning. Franken captured 198 of the ballots, while Coleman took 111. The ballots added 87 votes to Franken's recount lead, enlarging his margin over Coleman to 312. The result makes it even more likely that, barring an unforeseen circumstance, Franken will prevail in the election lawsuit that Coleman filed in January to contest the Democrat's 225-vote recount lead. The three-judge panel presiding over the case has not said when it will issue a final decision."

A Public Policy Polling’s Arkansas survey reports tepid "approval ratings for Democratic Senator Blanche Lincoln of Arkansas. 45% of voters support the job she’s doing while 40% say they disapprove of her work. Hurting Lincoln’s numbers are poor marks from independents, only 31% of whom say they approve of her performance while 50% rate her negatively. 73% of Democrats but only 22% of Republicans express approval. Lincoln holds solid, but not spectacular, leads over a couple of folks who have been rumored as possible challengers. She has a 46-38 edge over former US Attorney Tim Griffin and leads state senator Gilbert Baker 48-37. Baker and Griffin are both largely unknown to the state’s voters and their numbers can probably be viewed as those of the generic Republican opponent to Lincoln."

The Republican incumbent US Senator in North Carolina, Richard Burr, is looking vulnerable in his 2010 reelection effort. According to a recent poll by Public Policy Polling, "Burr continues to have approval ratings worse than Elizabeth Dole’s at the same point in the election cycle two years ago as he prepares to run for reelection in 2010, the newest survey from Public Policy Polling finds. 35% of voters in the state approve of the job Burr is doing, with 32% disapproving. Dole’s numbers were 43%/31% around this time in 2007. Burr leads Secretary of State Elaine Marshall 43%-35% in a hypothetical contest. Dole led Marshall 46%-35% during the period Democrats were recruiting a candidate two years ago. Even after more than ten years in statewide office and a 2002 Senate campaign, more than half of the voters in the state don’t hold any opinion about Elaine Marshall in an either positive or negative direction. 28% of voters have a positive view of her, 19% a negative one, and 53% have no opinion. Tested against a generic Democratic candidate, Burr leads 42-38. That number is somewhat misleading though as 22% of Democrats, unsure who their nominee will be, say they are undecided while only 12% of Republicans report the same."

A recent poll by conservative-leaning think tank Civitas Institute conducted March 16 to 19 "confirmed what many others have found - Burr continues to struggle with name recognition. Fifty percent of registered voters told Civitas they either has no opinion or were unaware of the first-term Republican senator. That is down from 54% when Civitas asked the same question in January. Thirty-seven percent held a favorable opinion of Burr in the most recent poll, which held steady from January. The Civitas poll also showed Burr trailing Democratic Attorney General Roy Cooper 41% to 38% in a hypothetical match-up."

PollTrack makes one observation: with a very popular Barack Obama at the head of the ticket in 2008, Democratic voter groups turned out in very healthy numbers. With Obama not a factor on the 2010 ballot, will Democrats turn out with the same intensity?

The New York Times reports that democrat Chris Matthews will not be running against incumbent Republican Pennsylvania Senator Arlen Specter in 2010. The Times reports that "Matthews, the usually garrulous host of Hardball on MSNBC, has quietly signed a new long-term contract to remain with the cable network through the next election, signaling that he had quit entertaining any plans to run for a Senate seat.The deal is for at least four years. Financial terms were not disclosed, and neither side would confirm whether MSNBC had won a reduction in salary for the host, as it had been reported to be seeking. Previous reports put his annual salary at about $5 million."

A new Siena Research Institute poll indicates that incumbent New York Democrat Kirstin Gillibrand would handily defeat Republican congeessman Peter King in her 2010 reelection bid, but that former Republican Governor George Pataki would present a far more difficult challenge. If the election were held now, Sen. Gillibrand would handily defeat Rep. King (R-NY), 47% to 23%. However, Gillibrand would face a tough challenge if former New York Gov. George Pataki (R) chooses to run: the two are currently tied at 41%.

According to a new Quinnipiac University survey, the race for the Democratic nomination to seek the Ohio seat of retiring Republican Sen. George Voinovich is "a wide-open affair" while, on the GOP side, former Rep. Rob Portman holds a significant lead: "In general election match-ups, the Democrats come out ahead of the Republicans." For the Democrats, Lt. Gov. Lee Fisher leads at 18%, followed by Secretary of State Jennifer Brunner at 14% and Rep. Tim Ryan at 12%. As for the Republicans, Portman leads State Auditor Mary Taylor 31% to 14% with 52% undecided. The general election match-ups: Fisher leads Portman 41% to 33% with 24% undecided and Taylor by 41% to 31% with 25% undecided. Brunner bests Portman 39% to 34% with 25% undecided and Taylor by 38% to 31% with 28% undecided.

Even if the three-judge panels moves to certify Democrat Al Franken as the winner of November's US Senate race, Republican Norm Coleman may not give up. The Minneapolis Star Tribune reports that the race may be far from over: "Top Republicans are encouraging Coleman to be as litigious as possible and take his fight all the way to the U.S. Supreme Court if he loses this round, believing that an elongated court fight is worth it if they can continue to deny Democrats the 59th Senate seat that Franken would represent. And in pushing a possible Supreme Court conclusion, Republicans are raising case history that makes Democrats shudder: Bush v. Gore. Coleman’s team says the different methods Minnesota counties use for counting absentee ballots violated the Constitution’s equal protection clause — echoing the same 2000 Florida recount case that effectively handed the presidency to George W. Bush. By making a constitutional case, Republicans are already looking ahead to federal court."

Incumbent US Senator Arlen Specter has a new challenge in Pennsylvania: the state's shifting demographics. According to election data tabulated by Roll Call, his once reliable suburban Philadelphia base "has seen the sharpest drop in Republican registrations in the state -- numbers that collectively exceed his margin of victory over Pat Toomey in the 2004 Republican primary. . . . A simultaneous spike in Democratic enrollment likely means that moderate Republicans switched their registrations over the past four years. The result is bad math for Specter, who will likely face a more conservative GOP electorate in the 2010 primary than he did in 2004."

The latest poll numbers in Connecticut suggerst that incumbent US Senator Chris Dodd may be in trouble in his 2010 election bid. As Time Magazine reports, "Dodd is looking increasingly vulnerable. The silver-haired father of two young girls is facing his toughest re-election fight ever, and he doesn't even have an opponent yet. (CNBC pundit Larry Kudlow and former GOP Representative Rob Simmons have both expressed interest in running.) In a January Quinnipiac poll, 51% of Connecticut voters said they would not vote for Dodd in 2010. 'It's the subject matter — people are watching their tax dollars go into institutions and they wonder when it's going to get better and they wonder where it's going," Dodd says. "I don't find people trying to elbow me out of the way trying to take over jurisdiction of the Banking Committee.'"

Voters in Minnesota, growing weary of the seemingly endless election process for the US Senate, are split of the prospect of a revote, according to the Minneapolis Star Tribune, which reports on a new that shows a scant plurality--46% of likely voters in the state--favor a re-vote in the race between Republican Norm Coleman and Democrat Al Franken. 44% oppose a new vote, a statistical dead heat, given the poll's margin of error of 4.5 percentage points: "Earlier this week, in the midst of the continuing recount trial Coleman questioned whether the three judges presiding in the trial will ultimately be able to decide who won the election. However, his lawyers stopped short of asking the judges to order a new election."

The Tribune continues: "Given the recount results that gave Franken a 225-vote lead and Coleman's failure so far to substantially expand the pool of votes, Republicans in the state look more favorably on a revote than Democrats do.Among self-identified Republicans, 71 percent support a do-over, while 69 percent of Democrats are opposed. Among independent voters, a revote is supported by just 12 percent."

In the latest move in the endless Minnesota US Senate post-election recount, the Minnesota Supreme Court on Friday refused Al Franken's request to be immediately certified as winner of the U.S. Senate election, saying that step "must await a final resolution of the long-running recount trial and possible appeals." The Minneapolis Star Tribune reports that "even as the high court issued its ruling, Franken's lawyers received a sympathetic hearing in their attempt to throw out Republican Norm Coleman's legal challenge of Franken's 225-vote recount margin. In a 5-0 decision, the Supreme Court ruled that DFLer Franken was not entitled to be certified as the election winner until the legal contest has made its way through the state courts. The justices said state law blocks an election certificate from being issued until then."

According to a new poll, GOP US Senator Arlen Specter from Pennsylvania may be the latest northeast Republican in danger of loosing his seat: "53% of Pennsylvanians -- and 66 percent of Republicans -- want someone to replace Specter. "Asked whether they think Specter, a Philadelphia Republican, has done his job well enough to win re-election or whether they'd prefer a 'new person' in that job, registered voters by a 53-38% said it's time to give someone else a chance, according to the poll by Susquehanna Polling and Research. 8% were undecided."

The three-judge panel reviewing the results of the US Senate recount in Minnesota has handed Republican Norm Cokeman a big setback. The Minneapolis Star Tribune reports: "Ballots that Norm Coleman wants to count took a beating in testimony on Tuesday, while ballots he thinks are illegal were protected by the judges hearing the U.S. Senate trial. In the latest in a series of setbacks for Coleman, the three-judge panel refused to preserve identifying marks on counted absentee ballots that he claims have been rendered illegal by recent rulings of the court. The decision hampers the ability of Coleman, a Republican, to challenge ballots tallied in the final phase of the recount, when DFL Al Franken took a 225-vote lead."

According to a report in the Chicago Sun Times, embattled Sen. Roland Burris (D-Ill.) met with Sen. Dick Durbin (D-Ill.) on Tuesday afternoon and delivered two distinct messages: "he will not resign in the wake of the controversy surrounding his appointment by the ousted Gov. Blagojevich and he will not run for the seat in 2010. Burris has finally realized that not seeking election next year is the least price he will pay."

According to a new Quinnipiac University poll, incumbent Republican Governor Charlie Crist is well situated for either reelection or a US Senate run in 2010. He would be heavily favored to win the GOP nomination for U.S. Senate and beats a generic Democrat handily in a general election match up, 48% to 25%. However, a plurality of respondents want Crist to remain as governor with 57% favoring his re-election.

According to the local TV news station, NY1, "a spokesman for former Governor George Pataki says he has met with a top Senate Republican, as rumors swirl that the party is pushing him to run for Senate. The Associated Press is reporting that during the visit, Senator John Cornyn of Texas approached Pataki about running in 2010 for the seat held by Democrat Kirsten Gillibrand. Gillibrand was appointed just last month by Governor David Paterson, after Hillary Clinton vacated the seat to be secretary of state. Pataki is working for a private law practice and has not commented on the possibility of returning to public life."

Things are looking up for Democrat Al Franken in the Minnesota recount post-game. As Politico reports on its website: Does Republican norm Coleman have any real chance of retaining his Senate seat? The answer, "according to state political and legal analysts, is that it would take a miracle. Miracles do happen in politics — but four weeks into a court case that will decide the winner of Minnesota’s tortured Senate race, the GOP incumbent is facing just-about-insurmountable hurdles to overcome the 225-vote deficit he was saddled with at the end of the official recount. The court itself has not yet counted a single vote. Instead, a three-judge panel is considering a pool of disputed ballots and steadily ruling which are legitimate and should be counted, and which should be thrown out. Coleman wants most of the ballots included, believing they will tilt the election in his favor."

"But so far, the court’s decisions favor the Democratic challenger, comedian and author Al Franken, experts say. And that trend is expected to continue. 'Norm Coleman’s life support system is slowly weakening,' said Larry Jacobs, director of the University of Minnesota’s Center for the Study of Politics and Governance. The latest blow came Friday, when the judges considered 19 different categories of rejected absentee ballots and ruled that 12 of the categories had to be thrown out. That lowered the number of absentee ballots eligible for inclusion from about 4,800 to around 3,300 — down from about 12,000 at the beginning of the trial."

A new Chicago Tribune poll reports that more Illinois voters want to see Democratic Lt. Gov. Pat Quinn run for Senate in 2010 than newly-appointed Democrat Sen. Roland Burris. 48% of registered voters would like to see Quinn run, 15% do not want him to run and 37% are undecided. Voters want Burris to run by a narrower margin--37% to 33%, with 29% undecided.

A new Quinnipiac University survey reveals that "both Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand (D-NY) and the man who appointed her, Gov. David Paterson (D) trail Democratic primary challengers in 2010. Attorney General Andrew Cuomo (D) trounces Paterson, 55% to 23%, in a possible gubernatorial primary. And Rep. Carolyn McCarthy (D-NY) beats Gillibrand in a Democratic U.S. Senate primary, 34% to 24%, with 39% still undecided. Quinnipiac observes: "The Caroline Kennedy mix-up still haunts Gov. David Paterson... Three quarters of New Yorkers heard about the nasty news leaks. They think Kennedy was treated unfairly, but most don't blame Paterson for the leaks."

Senator Arlen Specter of Pennsylvania was one of three Republicans to support the stimulus package now making its way through Congress. His support appears to hurt him with many voters in the state, a possible problem for his 2010 reeelection effort. Tatest Rasmussen Reports survey in Pennsylvania roports that just 31% voters say are more likely to vote for Specter because of his position on the stimulus package while 40% are less likely to do so."

The Minneapolis Star Tribune reports that the three-judge panel evaluating the recount of the Minnesota US Senate race has made a major ruling against Republican Norm Coleman: Dealing a blow but not a knockout to Coleman's hopes, the judges "tossed out most of the 19 categories of rejected absentee ballots they were considering for a second look, making it clear that they won't open and count any ballots that don't comply with state law. On its face, the ruling looked to be a victory for DFLer Al Franken, whose lawyers had urged the judges to turn down 17 of the 19 categories and said Friday that they had very nearly done it. But Coleman's attorneys saw it differently, saying that the ruling leaves untouched about 3,500 of the 4,800 rejected absentee ballots they want the court to open and count, enough to make it possible for Coleman to overcome Franken's 225-vote certified recount lead."

Political Wire reports that a soon to be released Strategic Vision poll in Florida shows Gov. Charlie Crist (R) the runaway favorite in the 2010 U.S. Senate race should he decide to run: "Among Democrats, Rep. Ron Klein leads the pack with 12%, followed by Rep. Kendrick Meek at 10% and 66% still undecided. Among Republicans, Crist leads the field with 54% support, followed by Rep. Connie Mack at 14%. In general election match ups, Crist beats each of the Democrats by more than 25 points, though pollster David Johnson suggests name recognition is the key factor at this point in the cycle."

Pennsylvania Republican US Senator appears to be highly vulnerable in his upcoming 2010 reelection bid. When Pennsylvania voters were asked in a new Quinnipiac survey if Sen. Arlen Specter (R-PA) deserves re-election, 40% said yes while 43% said no.

The Minneapolis Star Tribune reports that lawyers for Democrat Al Frenken asked Minnesota's highest court on Thursday to certify him as the winner of his tight Senate race with Republican Norm Coleman without waiting for the outcome of his rival's legal challenge: The court "heard oral arguments on Franken's request for a certificate of election now, at least on an interim basis, so that Minnesota's empty seat can be filled without waiting the months it may take for the courts to resolve Coleman's separate lawsuit over the recount, which gave Franken a 225-vote advantage. The justices took the case under advisement and didn't say when they might rule, but their many questions suggested they were skeptical of Franken's arguments."

The endless Minnesota Senate race may not be over, after all. The three-judge panel reviewing the recount ruled on Tuesday that nearly 4,800 rejected absentee ballots may be reconsidered in the U.S. Senate recount trial. According to the Minneapolis Star Tribune,"the court granted Democrat Al Franken’s request to limit the universe of ballots that Republican Norm Coleman can seek to have counted, rejecting Coleman’s attempt to have about 11,000 rejected absentee ballots reconsidered. But Franken had asked the judges to limit the review to only the 650 ballots cited by Coleman when he filed his lawsuit last month challenging the recount. With Franken holding a 225-vote lead after the recount results were certified, the 4,800 ballots that may be reconsidered would appear to be enough to put the ultimate outcome in doubt. The court order indicates that any of the ballots that complied with state law should be counted, along with those where errors occurred through no fault of the voter."

A new Siena College poll finds that a majority of New York voters think Gov. David Paterson did just a fair or poor job filling the state's U.S. Senate vacancy. The polls reports that 33% of voters thought he did a fair job, while 29% thought it was poor. Only 27% said the process was good, and 6% rated it excellent. The poll is the first since the Kennedy leaks and Paterson's selection of Rep. Kirsten Gillibrand.

Minnesota voters appealed to a state court panel in Minnesota to count their absentee ballots: They testified that their ballots had been "unfairly rejected as Republican Norm Coleman argued thousands of disqualified absentee ballots should be counted in the U.S. Senate race. 'Perhaps my signature is not as good as it once was," Gerald Anderson, of St. Paul, told the three-judge panel hearing Coleman's lawsuit. "It gets cloudy and crooked. I am 75 years old.' But that shouldn't have disqualified his vote, he said: 'I want it back. I'm entitled to my vote.' A statewide recount gave Democrat Al Franken a 225-vote edge. The personal stories that Anderson and five other voters told are just one front on Coleman's effort to have more votes counted. Coleman's legal team had intended to submit copies of thousands of ballots as exhibits, but the judges disqualified them as evidence Monday because campaign workers had marked on some envelopes. On Tuesday, much of the panel's time was spent with state officials, lawyers and court staff working out a plan to get about 11,000 rejected absentees to St. Paul from counties throughout the state. Actual testimony didn't begin until afternoon in the case, expected to last weeks."

According to the Minneapolis Star Tribune, "a three-judge panel will begin what could be a weeks- or months-long trial to decide who won Minnesota's U.S. Senate race. The action starts at 1 p.m.in St. Paul. The judges -- from St. Cloud, Minneapolis and Thief River Falls -- are largely unknown outside their community's legal circles. The three now will hear testimony and inspect evidence on the recount, which ended three weeks ago when the Canvassing Board certified results showing DFLer Al Franken with a 225-vote lead over Republican Norm Coleman. The judges already have shown each side their capacity for firm action. On Thursday, they rejected Franken's motion to dismiss the lawsuit. The next day, they swept aside Coleman's request to have inspectors fan out across the state in search of problem ballots."

Yesterday, a three-judge panel has refused Democrat Al Franken's request to block a lawsuit filed by Reoublican incumbent senator Norm Coleman over the Minnesota Senate recount outcome. Franken won the recount by 225 votes. The dismissal allows the trail to move forward on Monday.

Confirming PollTrack's report yesterday, New York govenor David Psterson has selected a 42-year-old congresswoman from upstate who is known for bold political moves and centrist policy positions, to fill the United States Senate seat vacated by Hillary Clinton, according to report in the New York Times this morning based on a conversation with an aide to the governor: "The governor will announce his selection at noon in Albany. An aide to Ms. Gillibrand confirmed that she had accepted the appointment. Ms. Gillibrand is largely unknown to New Yorkers statewide, but is considered an up-and-coming and forceful lawmaker in her district and has gained considerable attention from Democratic leaders in Washington."

According to NBC News, "Rep. Kirsten Gillibrand (D-N.Y.) has emerged as the frontrunner for Hillary Clinton’s Senate seat after Caroline Kennedy dropped out of contention last night . . . Paterson had a conversation with Gillibrand Wednesday morning, [New York governor has her on his short list of contenders for the seat]. Gillibrand, a second-term congresswoman from upstate New York, has a resume that would please the Clintons. She served as a special counsel for the Department of Housing and Urban Development (under Andrew Cuomo!) in former President Clinton’s administration, and helped raise money for Hillary Clinton’s Senate campaigns in New York. Gillibrand would be a savvy political choice, as well. She has twice won election in one of the most Republican Congressional districts in New York, handily defeating her GOP opponent with 62 percent of the vote last year. She has assiduously courted the local officials in her district, almost all of whom are Republican."

More news in the endless Minnesota US Senate recount: Al Franken asked a three-judge panel on Tuesday to dismiss Norm Coleman's lawsuit challenging a recount that left him trailing Franken by 225 votes: Democrat Franken's legal team argued "that Minnesota law and the U.S. Constitution prevent Coleman, a Republican, from waging an exhaustive review of the recount that was certified by the state Canvassing Board and give the U.S. Senate power to fill the seat. Coleman says state law permits a court challenge to press his claims of widespread voting irregularities, including assertions that absentee ballots from Republican-leaning areas were wrongly rejected and that ballots in DFL areas were counted twice."

The New York Post this evening reports that Caroline Kennedy "tonight withdrew her name from consideration to replace Hillary Clinton in the U S Senate after learning that Gov. David Paterson wasn't going to choose her, The Post has learned. Kennedy's decision removes the highest-profile name in the ring to step into Clinton's now-vacant seat, as she departs after getting confirmed today as President Obama's Secretary of State."

According to the New York Daily News, Democratic Governor David Paterson had made a decision concerning a replacement for US Senator Hillary Clinton who will soon be confirmed as US Secretary of State: "Sources close to Paterson say they believe Caroline Keenedy is still the front-runner - despite the fact the governor has recently been talking up Rep. Kirsten Gillibrand (D-Hudson). 'I have a good idea now which direction I want to go," said Paterson. Despite the national anticipation, Paterson said he will wait a few more days before making an announcement. 'I thought that with something this serious - that when I came to a point of view - that I wouldn't react to it immediately," he said. "I thought I would see if it feels the same way [tomorrow] ... as it did, I guess toward the end of [Monday] afternoon when I think I started to come to a point of view.' Paterson's process has left many befuddled in recent days as he has seemingly swung from one position to another."

According to the New York Post, Caroline Kennedy will be Gov. David Paterson's pick to replace outgoing US Senator Hillary Clinton. The Post reports: "Despite claims that he's still undecided, Gov. Paterson is 'certain' to pick Caroline Kennedy to replace Hillary Rodham Clinton in the US Senate, several unhappy contenders for the job have told friends and associates in recent days. The contenders based their conclusion on the view that Paterson, after nearly two months of indecision, would "greatly embarrass" and "entirely humiliate" Kennedy, anger her prominent political family and even offend President-elect Barack Obama by picking someone other than President John F. Kennedy's daughter."

The Minneapolis Star Tribune reports that the end may be near in the seemingly endless Minnesota US Senate recount: "In the first sign that Coleman might cut short his challenge of the Senate recount, his campaign proposed that his lawsuit be conducted in stages. The proceedings would continue through all the stages only if he gains enough votes to show he could emerge the winner. In a court filing, Coleman's lawyers suggested that the trial's first phase begin Feb. 9. The campaign downplayed the significance of the announcement and did not elaborate on how many votes Coleman would have to gain during each stage in order to proceed."

In a sign that the Minnesota US Senate race may not be over--but most probably still will end with Democratic challenger Al Franken assuming the seat--the legal team of Republican incumbent Norm Coleman "has begun pressing some Minnesota counties for documents on hundreds of thousands of ballots that were not previously disputed. The lawsuit that Coleman filed last week to erase DFLer Al Franken's 225-vote lead cites a few dozen specific ballot errors that he says favored Franken. But Coleman's camp is also now casting a much wider net for other mistakes that could cost Franken votes." According to the Minneapolis Star Tribune, the Coleman team rests much of its case on 654 absentee ballots that local officials rejected for not complying with state law. "Coleman wants the three-judge panel that will hear his lawsuit to include those ballots, most of which come from rural and suburban areas favorable to Republicans."

According to PolitickerPA.com, Chris Matthew's brother Jim thinks the journalist and MSNBC anchor will not challenge incumbent Republican Pennsylvania Senator Arlen Specter in 2010: "'There is no hint of him running for office,' said Matthews . . . 'That's 1,000 percent true.' Jim Matthews, a Republican commissioner in Montgomery County, emphasized that it's his opinion -- he didn't hear it directly out of his brother's mouth. But he said his brother was very upbeat about returning to "Hardball" and already had a new contract offer in hand from the cable news network. I know there's been discussion about (a Senate run) ... but I would be stunned beyond words if he does anything besides but look forward tomorrow to going to work . . . I just think he's recharged.'" Yesterday, Chris Matthews echoed his brother's sentiment, telling his staff at MS NBC Hardball that he has NO intention of taking on Specter in 2010.

A new Public Policy Polling survey reports that Caroline Kennedy’s popularity has taken a "major hit" as the result of her
public campaign to be appointed to Hillary Clinton’s Senate seat:
"44% of the state’s voters now say they have a lesser opinion of Kennedy than they did before she started vying for the position. 33% say it’s made no difference, and 23% report now having a more favorable opinion of her. A plurality of Democrats, Republicans, and independents all say that her efforts have caused them to view her less favorably. When it comes to whether they would prefer to see Kennedy or Andrew Cuomo appointed, 58% now prefer Cuomo to 27% for Kennedy." It looks like Kennedy's less than stellar debut as a political candidate--and the attendant negative press--has severely harmed her standing the the state. Still, several published reports say that she is likely to be named to the seat by NY Governor David Paterson.

Via the Minneapolis Star Tribune: the Minnesota Canvassing Board certified final results this afternoon in the US Senate Race. But, as the paper warns of the endless recount, that won't end the battle between Democrat Al Franken and Republican Norm Coleman, whose Senate term ended on Saturday: "Moments after the board certified that Franken had eked out 225 more votes than Coleman, attorneys for Coleman said they would file a lawsuit within 24 hours."

The Minnesota Supreme Court has reject a bid by Republican incumbent Norm Coleman to "have hundreds of rejected absentee ballots considered in the U.S. Senate recount, apparently clearing the way for a state board to certify election results showing Democrat Al Franken on top — and also opening the door to a post-recount lawsuit that the Coleman campaign said 'is now inevitable.'" The state Canvassing Board is scheduled to meet this afternoon to review recount results.

The Associated Press reports that Democratic challenger Al Franken will shortly be declared the winner over Republican incumbent Norm Coleman in the Minnesota US Senate recount. The state Canvassing Board is "posed to certify the results of the recount in Minnesota's grueling Senate election in Al Franken's favor — but that doesn't mean the race is definitely over. The board was to meet Monday and was expected to declare which candidate received the most overall votes from nearly 3 million ballots cast. The latest numbers showed Franken, a Democrat, with a 225-vote lead over Republican Sen. Norm Coleman. But after the announcement, there will be a seven-day waiting period before an election certificate is completed. If any lawsuits are filed during that waiting period, certification is conditional until the issue is settled in court."

The Minneapolis Star Tribune reports that the Minnesota Supreme Court will soon rule on the question of whether to let the final stage of ballot tallying proceed or to redesign the process once more: As state officials completed their count of 953 disputed absentee ballots Saturday, "the court is expected to decide soon whether to instead open the door to a new centralized review of about 2,000 such ballots, as requested by Sen. Norm Coleman -- or at least order the review of hundreds of additional ballots identified by the Coleman and Al Franken campaigns." If Coleman should loose this decision, PollTrack believes that Democratic challenger Al Franken will inch much closer to victory in the disputed (and long-winded) race, now in its third month of post-game wrangling. The contest, no doubt, would still be far from over as the Star Tribune notes: "If the court refuses the Coleman request... he would likely lose the recount and immediately move to legally contest the state Canvassing Board's certification of final results."

Things are really looking up for Democratic challenger Al Franken in the US Senate recount in Minnesota. With the recount complete--and all outstanding absentee ballots tabulated--Franken has an unofficial lead of 225 votes over Republican incumbent Norm Coleman. Going into today's accounting of improperly discarded absentee ballots, Franken led unofficially by 49 votes. He gained a net 176 votes by Saturday evening. The Minneapolis Star Tribune observes:  "[Coleman's] term as a U.S. Senator ended at noon Washington time today, and by evening his hopes of winning a second term had been dealt an expected but serious setback as state officials counted previously rejected absentee ballots in St. Paul." The Republican's probable next step: the Minnesota Supreme Court.

For this of you who can't get enogh of the Minnesota US Senate Recount, the Minneapolis Star Tribune is blogging live, covering in meticulous detail the opening of 953 mistakenly rejected absentee ballots by the office of the Secretary of State that began morning in St. Paul. Click hear to follow the Live Blog.

The New York Times reports this afternoon that Governor Bill Ritter, Democrat of Colorado, is set to announce that he’s selected Denver Schools Superintendent Michael Bennet to replace Ken Salazar in the United States Senate. Senator Salazar, Democrat from Colorado, is up for confirmation to be the Secretary of the Interior. The Denver Post is reporting that Colorado Gov. Bill Ritter may make the announcement as early as this Saturday.

According to the Associated Press, New York State officials with ties to Gov. David Paterson say the daughter of the late President John F. Kennedy will be the governor's choice to fill the New York Senate seat being vacated by Hillary Rodham Clinton. Still, Paterson cautions he's still looking.

According to the Associated Press, Democratic challenger Al Franken's lead in the US Senate recount in Minnesota has officially bumped up to 49-votes over incumbent Reoublican Norm Coleman, after the Secretary of State's office updated its numbers Wednesday night.

According to a new CNN/Opinion Research poll, a majority of Americans believe that Caroline Kennedy is qualified to be a US senator. 52% percent said the daughter of President John F. Kennedy is qualified to serve; 42% said she is not qualified. According to CNN, Kennedy's numbers are "somewhat lower than for Hillary Clinton when she ran for the US Senate seat from New York. In a CNN/USA Today/Gallup survey, more than 60 percent of Americans said the former first lady was qualified." There is a gender gap in these results, as well: 57% of women believing Kennedy is qualified; only 47% of men agree, with 46% of male respondents saying Kennedy is not qualified. PollTrack wonders if these numbers will begin to shift way from Kennedy, possibly reflecting the increasingly negative reporting on her effort to replace Hillary Clinton as New York's junior senator, the growing chorus of state Democrats who question or reject her candidacy, and Kennedy's relatively poor communication with voters and her recent string of political missteps and blunders.

With only 46 votes (as of Monday afternoon) officially separating Democratic challenger (and leader) Al Franken from incumbent Repoublican Norm Coleman in the Minnesota US Senate runoff it could all come down to a little more than a thousand improperly rejected absentee ballots, writes the Minneapolis Star Tribune. The catch: Franken wants them all counted; Coleman does not. "In a letter sent Saturday morning to attorneys representing Sen. Norm Coleman, Franken campaign attorney David Lillehaug proposed accepting the list submitted Friday by county election managers, clearing the way for all the ballots to be opened and counted by next Sunday. " Coleman officials are hinting that they would prefer "a possibly contentious series of regional meetings throughout the state where counties and campaign representatives would have to resolve differences about which ballots to count." The never ending Minnesota recount continues with no clear path to victory for eith candidate.

As if the Minnesota US Senate recount has not delayed the outcome of the race for months, the campaign of Reoublican incumbent Norm Coleman threatens to take the matter to court in the wake of its lose in the Minnesota State Supreme Court. Politico reports that in response to the ruling, "the Coleman campaign signaled it will contest the final election results in court.   If that happens, the Senate race will continue to be disputed well into January and for perhaps even longer." Said Coleman attorney Fritz Knaak: “The decision by the Minnesota Supreme Court today virtually guarantees two things in this recount. One: it ensures that there will be an election contest because Minnesotans simply will not support an election as close as this being decided by some votes being counted twice . . . Two: this ensures that no certificate of election will be issued due to an election contest inevitably being filed, leaving Minnesota without two sitting United States Senators on January 6th."

More news in the never ending Minnesota US Senate recount between incumbent Republican Norm Coleman and Democratic challenger Al Franken. The Minnesota Supreme Court late Wednesday rejected a bid by Sen. Norm Coleman to "force the state Canvassing Board to consider his campaign's claim that some votes in strongholds of Al Franken (D) were counted twice," according to the Minneapolis Star Tribune. The order allows those disputed ballots to remain in the vote totals, at least for now. "We are deeply disappointed," said Coleman lawyer Fritz Knaak, declaring that the Supreme Court decision "virtually guarantees" that the election will be decided in a court contest and that Coleman's campaign is prepared to wage one. PollTrack believes that this decision may present an obstacle to Coleman. With current unofficial results giving Franken a 48-vote lead, and most ballots recounted, it may be difficlt for the Republican to make up the difference with just challenged absentee ballots remaining.

According to a Public Policy Polling survey, John Hickenlooper, the mayor of Denver, is the top choice of Colorado voters to replace Sen. Ken Salazar, recently picked as the incoming Secretary of the Interior. Still, the field of contenders still pretty open. In order of support, here are the poll's findings: Hickenlooper--23%; Rep. John Salazar (the senator's brother)--15%; House Speaker Andrew Romanoff--12%; former mayor and cabinet member Frederico Pena--11%; Rep. Diane Degette--8%; Rep. Ed Perlmutter--6%; Treasurer Cary Kennedy--2%. Hickenlooper is the top choice for Democrats, Republicans and independents, and polls strongest among White voters.

According to a new Quinnipiac University Poll, New York State voters split 40% to 41% on whether Caroline Kennedy is qualified to be a U.S. Senator, "but they expect by a 48% to 25% margin that Gov. David Paterson will name her to the Senate seat being vacated by Hillary Clinton, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today. Offered a choice, 33% of voters say Gov. Paterson should name Ms. Kennedy, while 29% say Attorney General Andrew Cuomo should get the nod. Another 4% pick Albany-area U.S. Rep. Kirsten Gillibrand, while 24% want someone else and 10% are undecided . . . Kennedy leads Cuomo 42% to 27% among New York City voters and ties Cuomo 30% to 30% among suburban voters, while Cuomo leads 31% to 27% among upstate voters. Men back Kennedy over Cuomo 32% to 27% while women back her 33% to 31%. Republicans prefer Cuomo 33% to 20% while Democrats back Kennedy 41% to 27% and independent voters back Cuomo 33% to 30%."

According to the Minneapolis Star Tribune, Democrat Al Franken's lead in the Minnesota US Senate recount is down to 48-Votes. Still, Franken maintains the lead in the recount for the first time since Election Day: "Today, the state Canvassing Board is scheduled to award votes from thousands of challenges that each candidate had filed against his opponent's ballots but later withdrew. A draft list Monday by the secretary of state's staff about how those votes should be allocated showed Franken leading by 48 votes. At the end of last week, he was up by 251, the first time since the Nov. 4 election that he had an advantage." Stay tuned . . .

Connecticut voters are growing increasingly negative about Joe Lieberman, the Democrat turned-independent who endorsed Republican John McCain for president in this cycle. According to a new Quinnipiac Poll, BOTH of the state's "U.S. Senators get their lowest approval ratings ever, a negative 38% to 54% for Sen. Joseph Lieberman and a lackluster 47% to 41% for Sen. Christopher Dodd." Two questions: will Lieberman be vulnerable in 2012? And who will be his likely Dempcratic and Republican challengers. And will their split once, once again allow Lieberman to retain his seat. 

According to the Minneapolis Star Tribune, Democratic challenger Al Franken now leads incumbent Repoublican Norm Coleman by +251--a reversal of fortune in the Minnesota US Senate recount. Yet, as the Star Tribune note, the recount is by no means over, because all of the withdrawn challenges have yet to be allocated. Once these allocations are made, Franken’s lead will undoubtedly shrink, but by how much is uncertain. PollTrack notes that for the first time since the election ended on 4 November, Franken has assumed the lead by more than a few votes. Who will come out on top is anyone's guess, but things are looking brighter for the Democrat.

The inimitable Charlie Cook speculates that Republicans may once again be in for a rough ride in contest for US Senate seats in 2010. "If the playing field is level and no national dynamics are in play," Cook concludes, "Democrats should pick up a few more seats, but it's hard to think that national dynamics won't be at work, one way or another. New presidents often make missteps, and their honeymoons can end quickly. If that happens this time, a few of the vulnerable Republican seats would likely become less so, and a few of the Democratic seats that appear relatively safe would come into play." Yet, Cook wonders if downturn in enthusiasm for the Republican brand will continue to haunt the party in two years:
"If Republicans are still 8 or 9 points behind in party affiliation, if their 'brand' hasn't been repaired, and if they are still facing a competence gap -- an attribute they used to own -- this could be yet another very painful cycle for them."

According to a new national survey, voters are skeptical of the idea of Caroline Kennedy replacing Hillary Clinton in the US Senate: Only 37% believe Caroline Kennedy is qualified to be in the U.S. Senate and only "16% say she would be considered as Hillary Clinton’s replacement if her last name wasn’t Kennedy." 67% have a favorable view of Kennedy; 23% have an unfavorable opinion. 37% say Kennedy is not qualified to serve in the Senate, with 26% undecided.PollTrack cautions that this is a national survey. The numbers for New York State voters vary depending upon the survey.

In an observation that could have major repercussions in the Minnesota US Senate recount, Democrat Al Franken's lead attorney Marc Elias told the Minneapolis Star Tribune that more of Democratic challenges were being upheld than than those of Republican incumbent senator Norm Coleman: "When the recount is over and all the votes that were legally cast are counted, Al Franken will have won this election and will be declared the winner." Elias went on to claim that the shift in momentum towards Franken had "panicked the Coleman team into going to court to try to stop the counting of improperly rejected absentee ballots and asking the Canvassing Board not to count 150 ballots the senator's campaign claim were duplicated." Elias concluded that the Coleman campaign is engaging in a systematic "to prevent all the votes from being counted, for one reason and one reason only -- which is that they know that they are lying and that if all the votes are counted, they will lose this election. Coleman attorney Fritz Knaak denied Elias's accusation: "Mr. Elias has cast aspersions on our intentions from the beginning ... I understand his need to do that. That is not the case."

According to the New York Times, Democratic challenger Al Franken has pulled ahead of Republican incumbent Norm Coleman in the Minnesota US Senate recount, though it cations that the vote count was expected to remain in flux throughout the day: "Mr. Franken’s lead, which reached the high double-digits this morning, came as the board examined ballots challenged by Mr. Coleman’s team. But a spokesman for the Coleman campaign urged caution in putting too much stock in the temporary standings. 'While varying headlines and a flurry of different numbers will continue, we encourage everyone to just hang on until the process is finished,' said Coleman communications director Mark Drake. “When it is finished, Norm Coleman will still lead, and we believe, be re-elected to the United States Senate.'”

The Minneapolis Star Tribune reports that Democrat Al Franken picked up several hundred votes at Thursday's state Canvassing Board meeting, all but erasing the narrow unofficial lead that Republican Sen. Norm Coleman has maintained for weeks in the Minnesota US Senate recount. The Democrat, according to the paper, "seemed poised to move ahead today, at least temporarily, as the board rules on more challenged ballots." By the end of Thursday, Coleman clung to a two-vote lead. But Franken's reversal of fortune is far from conclusive: "Franken's surge Thursday was no real surprise, given that the large majority of ballot challenges typically fail. On the previous two days, when the board examined challenges from the Franken campaign, most were rejected and Coleman made gains." PollTrack notes that thousands of challenges have yet to be evakuated by the canvassing board--votes that could radically effect the outcome in ways that cannot yet be determined.

According to one blog, things may be looking up for challenger, Democrat Al Franken in his effort to defeat the Republican incumbent Norm Coleman in the US Senate recount in Minnesota: "At the end of yesterday's review, Coleman's pendulum has reached it's apex. With all Franken's challenged now resolved, we turn tot he over 1000 Coleman challenges. If those ballots break the same way as Franken's challenges, that would result in an almost 500 vote differential. This virtually assures a Franken lead by the end of this phase of the process. A process that has been open, transparent, and respectful of the rule of law. I ironically, on the STRIB ballot challenge page, once all ballots are reviewed, it shows Franken winning by as much as 275 votes." Given the complexity of the recount process, it's hard to say whether this reading is accurate. But Franken seems to have some momentum on his side according to several recent evaluations of the recount.

Two just released polls have contradictory results on the question of who should replace Democratic New York Junior Senator Hillary Clinton: According to a Siena College Poll, 26% say Gov. David Paterson should choose Attorney General Andrew Cuomo; 23% say Caroline  Kennedy. Limited just to Democrats, Cuomo was favored by 30 percent to 28 percent. According to Siena College, Cuomo leads in every region of the state. Kennedy leads among black and Latino voters and they tied among younger voters. A Public Policy Polling survey reports Kennedy as the top choice of Democrats by 44% to 23%. The margin was narrower upstate, where Kennedy leads 36% to 22%. She leads 45% to 25% in New York City; her strongest support in the suburbs where, with a 57% to 24% advantage over Cuomo.

Colorado is the next state headed for a special election in 2010 to fill out the remainder of an incumbent Democratic US Senator's seat. With Colorado U.S. Sen. Ken Salazar soon to be appointed President-elect Barack Obama's Secretary of the Interior,  PollTrack wonders if the Democratic talent drain from the US Senate, which now includes seats from New York (Clinton), Illinois (Obama), Delaware (Biden), and possibly Colorado, could present problems for the party in retaining or gaining seats in a year where more than the expected number of Democrats would have to defend their seats.

Will Jeb Bush, former governor of Florida and younger brother of George W. Bush, run for the US Senate seat being vacated by Mel Martinez in 2010? Florida voters seem to think so according to a new poll: While president Bush is vastll unpopular in Florida, 78% of Florida voters say former Governor Jeb Bush is likely to run. 45% believe Bush is very likely to run and 33% say he is somewhat likely to do so.84% of Republicans believe he’ll run along with 79% of Democrats. Ca he win? Quite possibly: "Jeb Bush is viewed favorably by 60% of Florida voters, including 39% with a Very Favorable opinion. Forty percent (40%) offer a negative view, including 19% with a Very Unfavorable opinion. Favorable opinions are offered by 78% of Republicans, 46% of Democrats and 54% of those not affiliated with either major party."

The Minneapolis Star Tribune decided to let the people decide the outcome of the endless Franken-Coleman US Senate recount in Minnesota. And it has concluded that Democrat Al Franken may have the edge when all challenged ballots are evaluated. By relying on a virtual "canvassing board" of more than 26,000 readers who examined at least some of them, the Star Tribune reports that "there appeared to be widespread consensus that Franken won slightly more disputes than Coleman, enough to theoretically erase the incumbent's narrow lead by late Monday . . . there is no assurance that partisans didn't distort the results. But large numbers of respondents from around the nation participated, and each of 15 respondents who viewed the largest number of disputed ballots gave Franken the edge by 3 to 5 percentage points. There was a broader consensus as well. Only 200 of the 6,500 ballots failed to draw a consensus from at least 75 percent of reviewers. Among the others, reviewers decided slightly more in favor of Franken." PollTrack must add hastility that these results are neither scientific nor skewed by the ferver of Franken partisans, thusthey appear a bit dubious. On the other hand, the Associated Press reports that its own analysis of challenged ballots would also appear to wipe out Coleman's 192-vote advantage. Stay tuned.

The Associated Press reports in its analysis of the outstanding challenged ballots in the Minnesota US Senate recount that Al Franken could come out ahead after these votes are apportioned: the analysis of the 3,500 challenges remaining "found that nearly 300 wouldn't benefit either man because the voter clearly favored a third-party candidate or skipped the race . . . of the 3,500 challenged ballots that easily could be assigned, Franken netted 200 more votes than Coleman. But Coleman has withdrawn significantly fewer ballot challenges than Franken — that is, the pool of challenges that can now be awarded to Franken is larger, and both campaigns announced Sunday that they would withdraw more challenges" by this afternoon, Tuesday the 16th of December." Things could get very interesting in Minnesota.

Caroline Kennedy has decided to pursue" the U.S. Senate seat being vacated by Sen. Hillary Clinton, according to the New York Times:  "The decision came after a series of deeply personal and political conversations, in which Ms. Kennedy, who friends describe as unflashy but determined, wrestled with whether to give up what has been a lifetime of avoiding the spotlight . . . Ms. Kennedy has been making calls this morning to alert political figures to her interest... She has also hired Knickerbocker SKD, a prominent political consulting firm headed by Josh Isay, a former chief of staff to Sen. Charles Schumer, to advise her."

The Minneapolis Star Tribune observes that it is the state's penchant for discarding absentee ballots that do not meet the letter of the law that has created the biggest stumbling block to completing the epic recount in the US Senate race between Republican incumbent Norm Coleman and his Democratic challenger, former comedian and writer, Al Franken: "Before this year's U.S. Senate race in Minnesota, rejected absentee ballots were almost as little known. Now, they've emerged as the biggest flaw in Minnesota's election system and may hold the key to finally resolving the contest between Republican Sen. Norm Coleman and DFLer Al Franken. But here and nationwide, the rejection of absentee ballots -- either because voters improperly filled out documents or because election officials erroneously spiked them -- is a problem that's long been hiding in plain sight. 'For years, people know some part of the [elections] system isn't working, but it flies under the radar screen because it doesn't cause problems until you have a situation like Florida in 2000 or Minnesota now," said Edward Foley, an election law expert at Ohio State University's law school. "Suddenly, it becomes a huge problem. Rejected absentee ballots are the new hanging chad.'" Indeed, Minnesota Deputy Secretary of State Jim Gelbmann estimates that more than 13% of rejected absentee ballots in the Senate race -- a number that could be as high as 1,580 -- were improperly set aside. For more on the absentee ballot fiasco in Minnesota click here. 

The endless Minnesota US Senate race recount saw a few rare victories for Democrat Al Franken on Friday. According to the Minneapolis Star Tribune, the state Canvassing Board "approved the use of Election Day results for 133 Minneapolis ballots that can't be found and also recommended that counties sort and count absentee ballots that were mistakenly rejected. But the five-member board revealed some fissures. That came when its two Supreme Court justices put the brakes on the apparent hopes of its two district judges to declare in advance that the board would accept the new results that include the previously rejected absentee votes." These actions help Franken in his quest to overturn Republican incumbent Norm Coleman's 192-vote lead at the end of the official hand recount. It remains unclear, though, who might be favored in the ballots now approved for inclusion by the Minnesota state Canvassing Board.

According a a new Research 2000/Daily Kos poll out this week, it looks like incumbent Democratic senator Ken Salazar is poised to win reeelection. In a hypothetical matchup with John Elway, former football megastar quarterback for the twice-winning Super Bowl Broncos, Salazar wins, 49% to 38%. Research 2000 notes: "The Colorado GOP bench is thin, and a lack of top-tier credible challenger means that Salazar, who isn't exactly the most popular senator ever (his 48-41 approval-disapproval rating is respectable, but nothing to boast about), may have a much easier time getting reelected than might otherwise have been the case."

With today's meeting of Minnesota's state canvassing board resolve the Franken-Coleman recount. MSNBC reports that the board will attempt to decide the fate of hundreds of improperly rejected absentee ballots, as well as 133 missing ballots in a Minneapolis precinct. So today's meeting could have a demonstrative effect on the state's contentious recount.

According to Poltico, Chris Matthews is about to sign a new contract with MSNBC News. Does this make a run in 2010 against incumbent Reoublican senator Arlen Specter less likely? Probably, since retaining his job as a political commentaor would present a conflict of interest fot the journalist.

According to a new Public Policy Polling survey of registered voters in North Carolina, Republican incumbent US Senator Richard Burr is quite vulnerable in his reelection quest in 2010. In a hypothetical matchup with Democratic Attorney General Roy Cooper, Cooper leads Burr by a margin of 39% to 34%. The survey continues: "44% of the state’s voters approve of Cooper’s job performance with just 23% disapproving. Burr gets a 32% approval mark with 31% unhappy with his work as a Senator . . . This poll confirms what many people already thought: Roy Cooper is the strongest
potential Democratic opponent for Richard Burr in 2010,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “He is just as well known statewide as the incumbent Senator, and better liked. He would be quite a formidable candidate.”

According to MSNBC, the Minnesota US Senate recount has a new set of accusations to ponder: the campaign of Democratic challenger Al Franken this afternoon has accused Minnesota election officials of "voter disenfranchisement." MSNBC reports:  "Franken spokesman Andy Barr showed reporters a video of voters whose ballots were thrown out due to technicalities, he said. Barr said some local elections officials made 'simple mistakes, human mistakes.' 'These are people, not abstractions,' attorney Mark Elias added. Meanwhile, Coleman campaign attorney Fritz Knaak sent a letter to the Elections Director of the City of Minneapolis stressing the weight he believes should be given to the hand-counted ballot."

In a sign that 2010 will not be easy for Republican incumbents, a new Quinnipiac poll reports that two-term Republican U.S. Sen. George Voinovich faces a tough reelection fight in 2010, with 36 percent wanting to give him another term and 35 percent backing an unnamed Democratic candidate, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today . . . Voinovich, who has been a fixture in Ohio politics since winning the first of two terms as Governor in 1990, would have a potentially more difficult challenge for a third term in the U.S. Senate in 2010. Only 44 percent of voters, including a lukewarm 54 percent of Republicans, say he deserves to be reelected.

A new Public Policy Polling survey suggests that Caroline Kennedy has the inside track with New York state voters to replace Hillary Clinton in the US Senate: "44% say she’s their top choice, with another 24% saying she’s their second choice from a list of potential candidates. The only other potential appointee to break double figures is Attorney General Andrew Cuomo, who was the top pick for 23% of respondents and the second with 35%. The other six candidates polled, including four members of Congress
and two prominent local government officials, were the favored choice with anywhere from 3 to 6% of those surveyed." But a just released Marist poll would appear to contradict these numbers, indicating a tie between Cuomo and Kennedy--25% to 25%--with 26% undecided and another 24% going to other candidates.

According to CQ Politics, the Repiblican senate campaign still has an uphill battle in 2010, but the party is in better shape than in 2008 when it was forced to defend many more seats than the Democrats: In 201, "the GOP will not have the kind of steeply slanted playing field it had to deal with this year. In the flip side of the party’s successes in its better times of 2002, the Republicans ended up defending 23 seats to the Democrats’ 12. That would have made it hard for them to hold their ground, even if the overall political atmosphere had not been so toxic. The slate of regularly scheduled 2010 races gives the Republicans another defensive chore, though it was not nearly as big: 19 Republican-held seats are scheduled to be up that year to 15 Democratic-held seats. Special elections will narrow the margin further, to 19-17, because of picks President-elect Barack Obama has made for his White House team from among his former Democratic Senate colleagues." 

On the heels of Al Franken's retraction of ballots earlier challenged by his campaign, representatives of the campasign of Republican incumbent Norm Coleman have made a retraction offer of their own, withdrawing 475 challenged ballots, according to campaign attorney Fritz Knaack . . . "We've gotten a positive gesture from the Franken campaign," Knaack said, "and we want to respond in kind."

With Republican Norm Coleman holding a 192-lead in the Minnesota US Senate recount, Democratic challeger Al Franken has decided to retract a number of ballots he had previously challenged. According to USA Today, "Franken is pulling back another 425 of the ballots he's challenging . . . bringing the total he's retracted to more than 1,000. His campaign challenged almost 3,300 ballots during the recount of 2.9 million ballots cast in the election, but last week he started canceling them by the hundreds. He's now repealed nearly one third . . . Coleman's campaign has announced it would give up 650 challenges, leaving him with 2,750."

How game is Caroline Kennedy for a nearly endless stream of campaigning across the geographically diverse and enormous expanse of New York state? If she becomes New York's next US Senator--via appointed by Democratic Govener David Paterson--she would have to do just that. She would need to win election outright in 2010 to serve the remainder of Hillary Clinton's unexpired term. Then, she'd have to run again in 2012 . . . for reelection. The notoriously private Kennedy may find the prospect of nonstop campaigning a daunting, if not impossible task. Thus a report out yesterday in the New York Post: "The odds of Gov. Paterson choosing Caroline Kennedy . . .  are no better than 20-1, a source close to the governor said yesterday. The source was responding to news that Sen. Ted Kennedy, Robert F. Kennedy Jr. and other family members have been pushing hard for Caroline to replace Clinton. 'It looks to me like [Caroline's cousin] Bobby Kennedy may be trying to push Caroline more than Caroline is pushing herself," a Paterson administration source told The Post.'" Stay tuned. 

According to The Uptake, election workers in Minneapolis Election Warehouse have found an envelope with less than 20 uncounted ballots.  The ballots may be from Minnesotans serving overseas in the US Military." Alas, the envelope does not contain the 133 ballots missing from Ward 3 Precinct 1. These ballots, in the Dinkytown area--including the University of Minnesota--may be helpful to Democratic challenger Al Franken, though probably not enough to overcome Coleman's lead.  The Minnesota Secretary of State "has ordered the recount on that precinct be held open so workers can search for those ballots."

With three separate vote counts now virtually complete in the Minnesota US Senate race (save for a handful of precincts and a little more than a hundred missing ballots), Republican incumbent Norm Coleman can boast that he has won three times. He may be winning another count, this one possibly as important as the first three: the expectations game. A new Rasmussen survey reports that 67% of Minnesota voters now expect Coleman to beat Democrat Al Franken. Just 16% say Franken will win, while 17% are not sure. According to Rasmussen, the expectations quotient crosses party lines: "Even 54% of Minnesota Democrats believe Coleman will be the winner once the recount of the race is completed." PollTrack believes that this factor--combined with three cionsecutive leads for the Republican--makes the political environment (as well as the raw numbers) less hospitable to a Franken upset.

The Associated Press projects that Coleman, the Republican incumbent, holds a slight edge--of 192-vote--over Democrat Franken. The Associated Press arrived at the figure by "comparing Nov. 4 tallies and those from the recount in all the finished precincts, which excludes the one in Minneapolis, and applying the changes to Coleman's 215-vote lead in the initial vote count." The Ap qualifies their projection, however: "But that 192-vote lead doesn't account for more than 6,600 ballot challenges from the two campaigns. It's muddied further by legal squabbles over Franken's push to include some rejected absentee ballots in the final count."

The Minnesota US Senate hand recount came to an end this afternoon, with Coleman taking an official lead of 687 votes. But as the New York Times notes, the race is not over: "Officials continued to search for 133 ballots missing from one Minneapolis precinct. With all except those ballots tallied from the state’s 87 counties, Senator Norm Coleman, the Republican incumbent, was leading Al Franken, the former comedian and a Democrat, by a margin of 687 votes, the secretary of state’s office said Friday afternoon. The race could easily shift later this month, though, once a state canvassing board begins examining some 5,300 ballots still in question — ballots for which either the Coleman or the Franken campaign has challenged the voter’s true intent." Still, PollTrack believes the dynamics of the three counts, all ending with Coleman in the lead, favor the Republican incumbent.

ABC News reports that NY Governer David Patterson may have a surprise in store for state residents: Coroline Kennedy as its Junior Us Senastor: "Another Senator Kennedy?  The crazy speculation about Hillary Clinton's Senate seat may not be so crazy after all.  A Democrat who would know tells ABC News that New York governor David Paterson has talked to Caroline Kennedy about taking the seat, which was once held by her uncle, Robert F. Kennedy.  It’s not exactly shocking that Paterson would reach out to one of the most highly respected public figures in New York, but this is:  Sources say Kennedy is considering it, and has not ruled out coming to Washington to replace Hillary Clinton in the Senate."

The Minneapolis Star Tribune reports that with the first phase of the Minnesota US Senate recount nearly complete on Thursday, the results differ little from the initial count completed in the hours and days after the polls closed in the state on 4 November: "Yet at day's end, with 99 percent of the ballots counted, the gap separating Republican Sen. Norm Coleman and Democrat Al Franken was only 36 votes larger than it had been at the start. Coleman now leads by 251, according to Star Tribune tabulations." Its unclear whether the 6,000 or so challenged ballots remaining can reverse Coleman's lead. At this point, with all three counts (initial, audit, and hand recount) seemingly going to the Republican, PollTrack believes the political (and numerical) environment continues to favor the Republican incumbent. Still, the count is not over: the state Canvassing Board will meet on Dec. 16 to begin reviewing the thousands of remaining ballot challenges from the two campaigns.

Contradicting some recent polling that shows Chris Matthews trailing Republican incumbent Arlen Specter in a hypothetical 2010 US Senate matchup, Rasmussen Reports has released a poll indicating that the Democrat presents a real threat to Specter: "Republican Senator Arlen Specter is potentially vulnerable in his 2010 bid for re-election. A Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Pennsylvania voters finds Specter leading MSNBC pundit Chris Matthews by just three percentage points, 46% to 43%, in a match-up that may foreshadow one of the nation's most closely-watched Senate races." More from CQ Politics on the Rasmussen poll: "The moderate Specter has only a 68 percent favorability rating in his own party but benefits from being viewed positively by 48 percent of Democrats. As far as actual support, 70 percent of Republicans say they would vote for him and 32 percent of Democrats said they would too."

The Minnesota recount reports that Republican incumbent Norm Coleman is leading Al Franken by 316 votes, with 98% of the recount completed. About 6,000 challenged ballots remain. The campaign of challenger Al Franken contests this number, claiming that its internal count now has the Democrat leading by 22 votes. As MSNBC reports: "The difference here, as one of us pointed out a couple of days ago, is that the Franken camp is counting the challenged ballots (the way it thinks the independent analysts are counting them). But the Coleman campaign disputes the Franken numbers. The recount will be completed by the end of the week, and the state’s Canvassing Board will make the final call on the challenged ballots on December 16." Given the net gain made by Coleman yesterday of 36 votes, PollTrack believes that it is doubtful that Franken's internal numbers will hold. If the official recount ends with Coleman ahead, is is also doubtful that Franken can muster the kind of political support he will need--both statewide and nationally--to support reversing three consecutive wins for Coleman. The first count had the Republucan incumbent ahead; the statewide canvas had him in the lead; and a third win  now seems likely when the official recount numbers are reported on 16 December.

According to Poltics PA, talk show host, Democrat Chris Matthews remains interested in challenging incumbent Republican US Seanator Arlen Specter in 2010: "Knowledgeable sources have confirmed that Matthews has discussed a possible run for U.S. Senate with Congressman and Philadelphia Democratic City Committee Chair Bob Brady; Treasurer-elect Rob McCord; Allegheny County Democratic Chair Jim Burn; and Neil Oxman, Pennsylvania's premier political consultant."A recent Quinnipiac University poll suggests that neither candidate would walk away with the race, but that Matthews was in a weaker position at this point. In the poll, Specter lead Matthews, 45% to 33%.

According to the St. Paul Pioneer Press (MN), elections officials in Minneapolis "discovered that one precinct came up 133 ballots short of election day totals, resulting in a net loss for Democratic challenger Al Franken of 44 votes." Thus, Republican incumbent Norm Coleman's lead may have once again inched up well past +300 votes. The conditions in the Minnesota recount continue to favor the Republican incumbent.

Two pieces of good news for Democrat Al Franken as reported by the Minneapolis Star Tribune: [1] he gained 37 votes in the recount after a cache of ballots was discovered jammed in a voting machine. Coleman continues to lead, however, by 303 votes, with 93% of the vote counted. [2] The day's other news, "which Franken's campaign quickly described as a 'breakthrough,' came when [Secretary of State Mark] Ritchie's office asked local election officials to examine an estimated 12,000 rejected absentee ballots and determine whether their rejection fell under one of four reasons for rejection defined in state law. The Secretary of State's office asked that ballots that were rejected for something other than the four legal reasons be placed into a so-called "fifth category."

The departure of George W. Bush on 20 January 2009 may not end the Bush dynasty in American politics. According to sources close to former Florida governor Jeb Bush, he is considering a run for the state's US Senate seat in 2010, a seat currently held by Republican Mel Martinez who announced Tuesday that he will not seek reelection: Asked whether he was interested in running for the seat then, Bush, the younger brother of the president, "told Politico by e-mail Tuesday night: 'I am considering it.' A source close to Bush said he'll be thoughtful and methodical about the decision-making process. He will consider the impact a race would have on his family and his business and whether or not the U.S. Senate is the best forum from which to continue his advocacy for issues such as education, immigration and GOP solutions to health care reform." <!-- /* Style Definitions */ p.MsoNormal, li.MsoNormal, div.MsoNormal {mso-style-parent:""; margin:0in; margin-bottom:.0001pt; mso-pagination:widow-orphan; font-size:12.0pt; font-family:"Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family:"Times New Roman";} @page Section1 {size:8.5in 11.0in; margin:1.0in 1.25in 1.0in 1.25in; mso-header-margin:.5in; mso-footer-margin:.5in; mso-paper-source:0;} div.Section1 {page:Section1;} -->

Is Republican Saxby Chambliss' decisive victory in yesterday's Georgia US Senate runoff a problem for Al Franken. The Hotline Blog seems to think so. In an interesting and perecptive analysis of the political implications of Al Franken's underdog status in the Minnesota recount, Hotline writes: "Sorry Jim Martin, but Al Franken might be the biggest loser tonight. How likely is it that Democratic senators will push for Franken -- or vote not to seat Sen. Norm Coleman should the MN race remain tight after a recount -- now that the filibuster-proof advantage has eluded the party? Such a move is a rare happening, but tonight's GA results seems to make an aggressive move on Franken's behalf less likely." With each step towards compleyion of the Minnesota recount, Franken's chances appear to diminish. Given Franken's hint that he might take the question of the validity of the Minnesota recount results to the US Senate itself (the Constitution provides that the House and Senate serve as “judge of qualifications and elections of its members”), ABC News wonders whether Senate Majority leader Harry Reid would even take up the challenge at this point: "Would Reid want to take such a politically explosive step if it wouldn’t even bring him 60 votes? Particularly when Republicans will control at least 41 votes in the new Senate -- enough to filibuster any such move, and effectively kill it?" the answer is probably no, especially after last night's results.

With one seat still undecided in Minnesota, the makeup of the incoming US Senate is Democrat-58, Republican-41.

NBC news has just declared Republican incumbent, Saxby Chambliss, the winner in his race gainast Democratic challenger in the Georgia US Senate runoff.

With  With 99% of the vote counted in the US Senate runnoff in Georgia, it's Chambliss (r)-57%, Martin (d)-43%

According to a late analysis of today's turnout by Insider Advantage, it looks like Republican Saxby Chambliss is poised to retain his seat in the Georgia US Senate runoff: "Based on our early evaluation of turnout in the Georgia runoff, it appears Republicans have successfully defended Saxby Chambliss’ U.S. Senate seat against Democrat Jim Martin. The four-week runoff campaign focused national attention on the Peach State and brought John McCain, Sarah Palin, Bill Clinton and Al Gore to the state to help their parties' respective candidates drive up turnout. Barack Obama cut an ad and a robo-call tape for Martin but didn't risk his prestige on the race through a personal appearance."

The US Senate runoff in Georgia is not producing the same level of voter enthusiasm as the November 4th presidential election. Precincts and polling stations across Georgia are reporting low to moderate voter turnout. The New York Times reports, for example, that at the Atlanta Public Library on Ponce de Leon Ave., where more than 1,600 people voted in the general election, only 400 people had voted by noon today.

According to the Minneapolis Star Tribune, Republican incumbent Norm Coleman has increased his lead by more than 60 votes against Democratic challenger Al Franken in the Minnesota US Senate recount. With nearly all of the votes recounted, Coleman has a lead of +340 votes.

Today is Election Day in Georgia, the runoff for the state's US Senate Seat. PollTrack's final average: Republican incumbent Saxby Chambliss-51.7% to Democratic Challenger Jim Martin-46%, REP + 5.7%.

On the strength of overwhelming support from white voters, Republican incumbent Saxby Chambiss leads Democratic challenger Jim Martin by +7% in tomorrow's Georgia US Senate runoff, 53% to 46%. Public Policy Polling’s final survey for the Georgia runoff "continues to find incumbent Republican Saxby Chambliss holding a solid advantage. He’s now extended his lead to 53-46 over challenger Jim Martin. Chambliss is leading 71-28 among whites planning to vote in the runoff. If Martin can’t improve on that, the electorate on Tuesday would have to be 34% African American for
him to win. Given that it was only 30% for the Presidential election and was a little under 23% during early voting that seems like it would be a stretch." These numbers confirm PollTrack's sense that Chambliss has the distinct advantage in tomorrow's race.

Will African-American voters turn out in record numbers--as they did for the presidential race in November--or will white voters carry the day in tomorrow's US Senate runoff in Georgia? Will today's visit from former Republican VP candidate Sarah Palin make a difference? As MSNBC explains: "The numbers game in the Georgia runoff is simple: Chambliss is hoping Palin will spike turnout among his base supporters, white evangelicals, while Martin was hoping Obama could spike turnout among his base, African-Americans. Turnout among both groups will be down, that's a fact. The question is which group will down more from Election Day? Answer that question, and you'll know the winner." PollTrack believes the odds favor Republican Saxby Chambliss: he continues to lead in all public opinion polls AND he just grazed the 50% mark on November 4th, even with historic African-American turnout. He's coming into a runoff where the black vote may be down from the presidential race AND he only needs only a handful of votes to take him over the 50% mark relative to November 4th. So Martin remains the underdog.

Quinnipiac is out with an early barometer of the hypothetical 2010 Us Senate match up between incumbent Republican Arlen Specter and MSNBC political commentator, Democrat Chris Matthews. The survey reports that Specter holds a 45% to 33% lead over Matthews. "Sen. Specter leads 72 - 9 percent among Republicans and 45 - 27 percent among independent voters, while Matthews leads 55 - 25 percent among Democrats." "Who says the Republicans are dead? Sen. Arlen Specter has the highest job approval rating of any major Pennsylvania Pol and would knock off Chris Matthews by 12 points if the Hardball host decides to run against him," observes (Quinnipiac assistant polling director) Clay Richards. "Matthews has been on MSNBC wall to wall during the election season, but is a question mark for 60 percent of the voters. Specter has been relatively invisible the past year and has a strong 56 percent favorable rating."

A Research 2000 poll of likely voters in next Tuesday's Georgia US Senate runoff shows Republican incumbent Saxby Chambliss with a +6% lead over Democratic challenger Jim Martin, 52% to 46%.

According to CQ Politics, Republican incumbent Norm Coleman has actually increased his advantage over Democrat Al Franken since the Minnesota US Senate recount began on 19 November: "By close of business Wednesday [11/26], Coleman had gained a net total of 77 votes, according to the office of Minnesota’s secretary of state. With approximately 86 percent of the ballots recounted, Coleman now leads Franken by 292 votes, up from the 215-vote margin he held at the end of the initial count that began on election night."

According to MSNBC, Democrat challenger Al Franken trails Republican incumbent Norm Coleman by 283 votes at the end of the day. It appears that Coleman's lead is ticking upward over the past few days.

According to CQ Politics, the Coleman-Franken recount may not be decided without judicial intervention: The Minnesota canvassing board today denied a request, "entered by attorneys for Franken, that it review absentee ballots rejected for technical reasons by local elections officials, and include in the candidates’ vote totals any ballots found to have been wrongly dismissed. The five-member board ruled unanimously that it does not have the authority to consider the legitimacy of absentee ballots, saying that is a matter for election judges or the courts to decide. This was essentially the position taken by Coleman’s campaign, which opposed the petition by the Franken camp to have the board take charge of the absentee ballots in question." 

According WCCO, incumbent Republican Norm Coleman maintains a 238 vote lead in the Minnesota recount as of Tuesday night, but 6400 rejected absentee ballots now cloud the eventual outcome: "Campaigns for Democrat Al Franken and Republican Sen. Norm Coleman reached back into history to make their arguments before the board weighs in on Wednesday. Franken -- who trailed Coleman by 215 votes going into the recount -- is pushing to include ballots it says were wrongly rejected. Coleman wants them kept out. Figures gathered by the secretary of state through Tuesday night show Coleman with a 238-vote lead when Nov. 4 tallies are compared with new counts in completed precincts. Four-fifths of ballots have been recounted. But Coleman has challenged 78 more ballots than Franken. Combined, the two have challenged nearly 3,600 ballots." More to come, no doubt.

According to the Minneapolis Star Tribune, a new problem has erupted in the Minnesota US Senate recount: missing ballots. The paper reports: "The Franken campaign today said that it has learned of missing ballots totaling several hundred in various counties. Franken recount attorney Marc Elias said he's also bothered that counties that know they have missing ballots aren't bothering to look for them. Elias declined to identify those counties but acknowledged that the Franken campaign is monitoring reports of several dozen missing ballots in Becker County."

The Minneapolis Star Tribune reports that Coleman's actual lead after today recounting is 213 votes, bot the 84 votes reported earlier today by MSNBC. Stay Tuned.

MSNBC/First Read reports that Republican incumbent Norman Coleman's advantage in the US Senate recount against Democratic challenger Al Franken has shrunk to 84 votes as of this afternoon. Stay tuned. (PollTrack has not yet confirmed this number.)

A report released today suggests that Democratic challenger Al Franken may be loosing ground in the Minnesota recount against Republican Norm Coleman on the very turf he expected to make up votes: in Democratic urban strongholds. Twin-Cities.com writes: "Are the piles of recounted ballots from red counties, where Republican Sen. Norm Colman might be expected to pick up a few stray votes? Or blue counties, where DFL challenger Al Franken might have the advantage? But Minneapolis — the biggest, bluest pile of all — is turning that logic on its head. With nearly half of its ballots recounted, the city Franken calls home isn't doing the candidate any favors. And that could be dimming Franken's hopes of catching Coleman before the state canvassing board meets Dec. 16. 'Things are clearly moving in the wrong direction for Franken,' said Larry Jacobs, director of the University of Minnesota's Center for the Study of Politics and Governance. (With slightly less than half of the ballots counted in Minneapolis, Franken has lost 86 votes, while Coleman has lost just 37.)

As ballot challenges surged to more than 3,000 on Monday, Republican incumbent Norm Coleman has picked up a bit of steam in the Minnesota US Senate recount. As the Minneapolis Star Tribune reports: "More than 78% of the votes had been recounted as of Monday night, and Republican Sen. Norm Coleman's advantage over DFLer Al Franken stood at 210, according to a Star Tribune compilation of results reported to the secretary of state and gathered by the newspaper. Before the recount, Coleman led Franken by 215 votes out of about 2.9 million cast, a margin that has fluctuated over the past week."

In Georgia's U.S. Senate run off, a new Public Policy Polling survey reports that incumbent Republican Saxby Chambliss  has expanded his lead to six points over Jim Martin (D), 52% to 46%, an improvement from the three point advantage he held on election day. An increase in independent voter support accounts for most of Chambliss' increased lead.

According to the Minneapolis Star Tribune, the tough fought MN Senate race could come down to disputed absentee ballots, and whether they are counted or not: "With Republican U.S. Sen. Norm Coleman clinging to a reed-thin lead over DFL challenger Al Franken -- 180 votes as of Saturday night -- the issue of how and when absentee ballots should be counted has election law experts everywhere closely tracking the Minnesota recount drama. In a race this tight, the difference could come down to clerical errors on absentee ballots or even a challenge of Minnesota's law governing such ballots. 'Campaigns over the years have challenged anything and everything," said recount expert Timothy Downs, principal author of "The Recount Primer' who has been involved in most major recounts over the years, including the biggest: Gore vs. Bush in 2000. Downs' co-author, Chris Sautter, hit the ground in Minneapolis last week as part of Franken's recount team." PollTrack notes that with an 180 vote lead--and most ballots now recounted--Coleman may be in a better position to hold onto his lead that Democrats believed earlier in the week.So the counting of discarded absentee ballots could substantially impact on the outcome. This race is a true nail biter. Stay tuned to PollTrack coverage of this and the other important outstanding US Senate race--the runoff in Georgia.

According to the Minneapolis Star Tribune: "With 64% of the 2.9 million ballots recounted, Coleman was ahead by 120 votes, down from 136 at the end of Thursday and from the unofficial lead of 215 signed off on Tuesday by the state Canvassing Board."

Republican Norm Coleman's lead has dropped yet again in the Minnesota recount. With 46% of the 2.9 million ballots counted by last night, the gap between Coleman and Al Franken narrowed even more. Coleman's leads stands at just 136 votes, a drop from his a 215 vote advantage at the start of the recount.

According to the Minneapolis Star Tribune, a final certified result for the US Senate race in Minnesota may not be available until the end of the year: "Recount officials will take up their task again today and every day until the votes are tabulated, with a full report expected by Dec. 5. The Canvassing Board is expected to make a decision on rejected absentee ballots early next week and rule on challenged ballots starting Dec. 16. While a court challenge could delay results further, Ritchie said he hopes to have an actual winner declared before the end of the year." And this appears to be optimistic.

Minnesota Senate Race: A Look At Challenged Ballots. Minnesota Public Radio has just posted on its website a series of challenged ballots in the Coleman-Franken recount. The problems with these ballots--some clearly indicative of voter intent, others not--are both varied, creative, and surprising. The article also allows you to vote on whether you believe a ballot is valid or not. To get a look at these ballots click here.

After the first day of Minnesota's US Senate race recount, Republican incumbent Norm Coleman (R-MN) lost a net of 41 votes and now holds a 174-vote advantage over challenger Al Franken (D). At the start of the recount, Coleman was up by 215 votes.

The Minneapolis Star Tribune reports: "Two weeks after the closest U.S. Senate election in Minnesota history, a massive hand recount of all 2.9 million votes gets underway today, with local officials working under the scrutiny of top lawyers brought in by both candidates." A final tally should be completed by mid-December.

The Democrats now have 58 confirmed seats in the next congress, three away from the magic number of 60. PollTrack rates the Minnesota race as the Democrat's best chance to gain one more seat, Georgia less likely given the relative conservatism of the state and the possibility of lower turn-out for the state's run-off relative to 4 November, when African-American voters turned out in record numbers.

The Associated Press has declared Democrat Mark Begich the victor in the US Senate contest against Republican incumbent Ted Stevens.

Critical numbers are due later today for the Alaska US Senate race: "Though elections officials in Alaska may be counting additional ballots for a few more days, the updated vote tally at the end of the day on Tuesday could move the contested race between Senator Ted Stevens and Anchorage Mayor Mark Begich closer to conclusion. Gail Fenumiai, the Alaska elections chief, said that her office planned to release an updated unofficial count by the end of the day on Tuesday, but cautioned that more ballots will be counted on Nov. 25." Democrat Mark Begich now holds a lead of more than 1,000 votes over incumbent Republican Senator Ted Stevens. Many of the remaining balots come from areas favorable to the Democrat.

According to MSNBC, the campaign of Alfranken "filed a brief with the Minnesota State Canvassing Board to learn why some absentee ballots were rejected and to determine if any of those rejections were improper. The campaign cited various reasons oversights might have occurred with absentee ballots, including human error and various technicalities." No doubt, much more to come on this one. The official statewide recount begins tomorrow, 19 November. Coleman now leads by a scant 215 votes.

A statistical analysis by Dartmouth University suggests that Democratic challenger Al Franken has a decided advantage in the recount against Republican incumbent Norm Coleman in the 2008 Minnesota US Senate race: the "race in Minnesota . . .  is slated to be recounted starting on November 19, 2008, and a key issue in the recount will be the approximately 34 thousand residual votes associated with it. A Senate residual vote is, roughly speaking, the product of a ballot that lacks a recorded Senate vote, and in the Minnesota Senate race there is no doubt that the number of residual votes dwarfs the margin that separates Coleman from Franken. We show using a combination of precinct voting returns from the 2006 and 2008 General Elections that patterns in Senate race residual votes are consistent with, one, the presence of a large number of Democratic-leaning voters, in particular African-American voters, who appear to have deliberately skipped voting in the Coleman-Franken Senate contest and, two, the presence of a smaller number of Democratic leaning voters who almost certainly intended to cast a vote in the Senate race but for some reason did not do so. . . .  the data available suggest that the recount will uncover many of the former and that, of the latter, a majority will likely prove to be supportive of Franken."

The majority of votes remaining to be counted in Alaska are from districts and precincts that generally favor the Democrat, Mark Begich. he now holds a 814 lead over Republican incumbent Ted Stevens, a lead that is likely to grown in the coming days.

According to a CBS News affiliate in Minnesota, post-election audits of votes often show considerable fluctuation from election night totals. WCCO-TV writes: "It may look suspicious how much the U.S. Senate vote totals are going up and down, but it's really not that unusual. The night that Sen. Norm Coleman defeated former Vice President Walter Mondale in the 2002 U.S. Senate race he piled up more than 1,062,000 votes. But when all the ballots were certified two weeks later, Coleman had 54,000 more votes . . . Between election night voting numbers, and two weeks later when the State Canvassing Board certified official results, Coleman gained 54,429 votes. Mondale's vote total also went up 63,192 votes, but not enough to beat Coleman. It's what happens in Minnesota elections. We just don't pay attention when the race isn't close."

A new Research 2000/Daily Kos survey reports that next month's U.S. Senate run off looks close at this point. Sen. Saxby Chambliss (R-GA) narrowly leads challenger Jim Martin (D), 49% to 46%.

With Democrat Mark Begich rapidly pulling into the lead in the Alaska US Senate race--he now has an advantage over incumbent Ted Stevens of more than 800 votes--it is likely that the Democrat will continue to make up ground as absentee ballots and ballots from remote parts of the state are counted. Republican, though, believe Stevens will prevail, claiming that historical voting patterns among absentee voters favored Stevens. Begich points to the concerted effort he has made to win early and absentee voters.

Minnesota Update: Republicans Charge Mischief. The Minnesota recount is getting ugly, even before it happens. Now state Republicans are accusing local Democratic counties and precincts of cooking the books in their post-election audit of votes. The Wall Street Journal reports: "When Minnesotans woke up last Wednesday, Republican Senator Norm Coleman led Mr. Franken by 725 votes. By that evening, he was ahead by only 477. As of yesterday, Mr. Coleman's margin stood at 206. This lopsided bleeding of Republican votes is passing strange considering that the official recount hasn't even begun. The vanishing Coleman vote came during a week in which election officials are obliged to double-check their initial results. Minnesota is required to do these audits, and it isn't unusual for officials to report that they transposed a number here or there. In a normal audit, these mistakes could be expected to cut both ways. Instead, nearly every "fix" has gone for Mr. Franken, in some cases under strange circumstances." With one county official reporting that she forgot absentee ballots "left in her car," things may get very contentious.  For more on Republican charges click here.

Alaska Senate: Begich (d) Narrows The Gap With Stevens (r), Now Leads By Three Votes. On Election Night, Republican Ted Stevens, convicted US Senator from Alaska, lead his Democratic opponent Mark Begich by 3,000 votes. Vote counting can be very slow in Alaska, given the remote location of some voters, sporadic mail delivery, and absentee ballots that can take as much as 15 days to arrive at election headquarters. Early results from this afternoon's ballot counting in the Alaska U.S. Senate race show Begich dramatically narrowing the gap with Stevens, according to the Anchorage Daily News. With tens tens of thousands of ballots left to count and even more next week . . . the latest numbers show Stevens' lead is down to 3 votes. "The new numbers, reflecting nearly 43,000 absentee ballots counted today, are from all over the state." For more on the Alaska vote count click here.

Coleman-Franken Post-Game: Now For The Pre-Count. They take voting very seriously in civic-minded Minnesota. So with an election that separates two candidates by a little more than 200 votes out of 2.9 million cast, the state undertakes an audit in anticipation of a full-dress recount. The Minneapolis Star Tribune describes the process in one county: "Twenty men and women settled in along tables at the Ramsey County elections office first thing Monday morning and began plowing through more than 7,700 ballots cast last Tuesday in the U.S. Senate race. After nearly three hours of counting, Norm Coleman had lost exactly one net vote in five of the county's precincts. Al Franken had gained exactly one." This post-election audit is apt to find a few mistakes, but perhaps not that many: "After the 2006 election, the first time the audit was conducted, it reviewed votes in about 5 percent of the state's 4,123 precincts. Among 94,073 votes cast in the U.S. Senate race in those precincts, the audit found 53 discrepancies, an error rate of .00056.ll 87 Minnesota counties." while this doesn't sound like many votes, finding mistakes at this clip could possible reverse the outcome of the US Senate race or even add to Coleman's fragile lead. For the full article click here.

According to the Minneapolis Star Tribune, Republican US Senator Norm Coleman's lead over Democratic challenger Al Franken is now down to 204, from 221 on Friday. The Minnesota recount will be contentious no doubt.

Minnesota 2008: The New Florida 2000? With Norm Coleman holding on to a lead of a little over 200 votes--out of 2.4 million cast--will the recount in Minnesota turn out to be a remake of Florida in 2000. Unlikely, since the state of Minnesota uses a uniform optical scan system for its balloting (thus, no hanging chads to speak of). One of the accurate voting methods, optical scan technology, the Franken campaign is quick to point, can "skip" up to two votes out of every 1,000 counted. Play out the match, and suddenly an upset is possible in Minnesota, far more so than when Coleman lead by more than 700 votes the day after the polls closed. Things could also get ugly as they did in Florida. Of the narrowing of the space between the two challengers in recent days, "Mr. Coleman’s campaign is 'profoundly suspicious,' Fritz Knaak, his general counsel, said, because “we’re mystified at this apparent pattern of every time there seems to be a change, it happens after hours and it happens in the Franken favor.” The next few weeks in Minnesota are bound to get fascinating, if not contentious. For more coverage of the pending recount click here.

According to the Minneapolis Star Tribune, Al Franken (D) is now just 237 votes behind Sen. Norm Coleman (R-MN) in Minnesota's U.S. Senate race. With so few votes separating him from incumbent senator Norm Coleman (r), a recount could reverse the outcome. Stay tuned.

The results of the three uncalled US Senate races may not be known for a while. In Georgia, Republican incumbent Saxby Chambliss failed to reach the 50% + 1-vote threshold and is headed for a run-off with his Democratic challenger. In Minnesota, Republican incumbent Norm Coleman hangs on to a 700-vote lead. Yhe race is headed for a run-off (but given the state's use of optical scan voting technology, one of the most accurate, Al Franken may not be able to make up the difference). And in the Alaska contest, Republican incumbent (and convicted felon) Ted Stevens hangs on to a small lead. The race awaits a full count and certification by the state.

The balance in the new US Senate as of this morning: 57-DEM, 40-REP, 3-TCTC. In a photo-finish in the US Senate race in Oregon, Democrat Jeff Merkley (D) has defeated Republican Gordon Smith. The race in Alaska leans towards recently convicted Republican Senator Ted Stevens in his race against Democratic challenger Mike Begich. (If Steven's resigns or is booted from the Senate, whic is likely, Governor Sarah Palin must order a special election to fill the vacant seat. The big question: Will Palin herself run for the job?) Saxby Chambliss, Republican incumbent in Georgia, may not reach the required 50% +1 vote to avoid a runoff. And Norm Coleman, Republican of Minnesota, holds onto a paper-thin 700 vote lead against challenger Al Franken. Coleman's lead, as tiny as it is, may be enough to keep him in the US Senate.

Three Senate races remain uncalled. In Georgia, Republican Saxby Chambliss leads--and is slightly over the fifty-percent mark--but must be certified to having passed this threshold in order to avoid a runoff. In Alaska, the convicted Republican incumbent Ted stevens leads by less than +1% with 99% of the vote counted. In Oregon, Gorgn Smith (r) leads by a slim margin but with only 75% of the vote in. Additionally the race has been called by some news organizations for Minnesota, Republican incumbent Norm Coleman over Al Franken (d) in a razor-thin finish: 42.1% to 42%. This race, however, will undoubtedly be headed for a recount. Here are the results (all called correctly thus far by PollTrack):

US Senate Winners: 5 November 2008

Balance Of Power Tally: DEM-56, REP-41, TCTC-3

Current Balance: DEM-51 (49-D, 2-I) to REP-49

BOLD: Victor 

Italics: Incumbent

The final results of PollTrack US Senate Race Chart suggest a strong Democratic tilt in the new Congress. As of this morning, PollTrack believes that incumbent Republican US Senator Norm Coleman of MN will hold on to his seat in his hard-fough race against challengers Al Franken (dem) and Dean Barkley (i). The balance of power in the new Congress reads: DEM-58, REP-42. See chart below:

US Senate Race Chart: 4 November 2008

Balance Of Power Tally: DEM-58, REP-42

Current Balance: DEM-51 (49-D, 2-I) to REP-49

BOLD: Leading In Race 

Italics: Incumbent

The fundamentals of the races for US Senate suggest a strong Democratic title in the new Congress. As of this morning, PollTrack believes that McCain's slight edge in the state of Georgia may help pull along incumbent US Senator Saxby Chambliss. (Heavy African-American early voting in the states, however, could blow both races wide open.)  The new balance of power reads: DEM-58, REP-41, TCTC-1. With the Republicans holding at least 40 seats (now at 41) according to our tabulation, it may be difficult for the Democrat's to meet their expressed goal of achieving a 60 seat majority-- the number needed to end a filibuster and close to the 2/3 required to override a presidential veto. See chart below:

US Senate Race Chart: 3 November 2008

Balance Of Power Tally: DEM-58, REP-41, TCTC-1

Current Balance: DEM-51 (49-D, 2-I) to REP-49

BOLD: Leading In Race 

Italics: Incumbent

The fundamentals of the races for US Senate suggest a strong Democratic title in the new Congress. In North Carolina, challenger Democrat Kay Hagan now hits the 50% mark in PT's statewide poll average and holds onto a 5.5% overall lead. With Republican Elizabeth Dole's negative campaign backfiring, and an unprecedented African-American turnout in early voting in the state, PollTrack now believes that Hagan is likely to win in NC and moves the state from "Too Close To Call" to "Lean Democrat." The new balance of power reads: DEM-58, REP-40, TCTC-2. With the Republicans holding at least 40 seats according to out tabulation, it may be difficult for the Democrat's to meet their expressed goal of achieving a 60 seat majority-- the number needed to end a filibuster and close to the 2/3 required to override a presidential veto. The Democrats are now two seats shy of this goal according to PT and would need to pick off the remaining "To Close" races--in Minnesota and Georgia--to achive their goal. See chart below:

US Senate Race Chart: 2 November 2008

Balance Of Power Tally: DEM-58, REP-40, TCTC-2

Current Balance: DEM-51 (49-D, 2-I) to REP-49

BOLD: Leading In Race 

Italics: Incumbent

The fundamentals of the races for US Senate suggest a strong Democratic title in the new Congress. Based on the extraordinarily wide and deep support for Obama in the state or Oregon, PollTrack believes his coattails may be enough to sweep Democratic US Senate challenger Jeff Merkley to victory in his race against Republican incumbent Gordon Smith. With PollTrack moving the Oregon race from "Too Close To Call" to "Lean Democrat," the new balance of power reads: DEM-57, REP-40, TCTC-3. With the Republicans holding at least 40 seats according to out tabulation, it may be difficult for the Democrat's to meet their expressed goal of achieving a 60 seat majority-- the number needed to end a filibuster and close to the 2/3 required to override a presidential veto. To do so, the Democrats would have to pick Senate seats in some of the reddest states on the map, including Georgia, Kentucky, and Mississippi. See chart below:

US Senate Race Chart: 1 November 2008

Balance Of Power Tally: DEM-57, REP-40, TCTC-3

Current Balance: DEM-51 (49-D, 2-I) to REP-49

BOLD: Leading In Race 

Italics: Incumbent

The fundamentals of the races for US Senate suggest a strong Democratic title in the new Congress. With PollTrack moving the Mississippi special race from "Too Close To Call" to "Lean Republican," the new balance of power reads: DEM-56, REP-40, TCTC-4. With the Republicans holding at least 40 seats according to out tabulation, it may be difficult for the Democrat's to meet their expressed goal of achieving a 60 seat majority-- the number needed to end a filibuster and close to the 2/3 required to override a presidential veto. To do so, the Democrats would have to pick Senate seats in some of the reddest states on the map, including Georgia, Kentucky, and Mississippi. But with Alaska possibly in the Democrats hands, one more wavering--and traditionally red state--may now be out of play for the Republicans. Below you will find updated polling averages for races marked "Too Close To Call." See chart below:

US Senate Race Chart: 31 October 2008

Balance Of Power Tally: DEM-56, REP-39, TCTC-5

Current Balance: DEM-51 (49-D, 2-I) to REP-49

BOLD: Leading In Race 

Italics: Incumbent

With US Senator Ted Stevens (R-AK) now convicted on seven ethics counts in Alaska, PollTrack tentatively moves the state into the leaning Democrat column. It is unclear as of this writing how the Republican party will handle this setback. As has been noted before, it may be difficult for the Democrat's to meet their expressed goal of achieving a 60 seat majority-- the number needed to end a filibuster and close to the 2/3 required to override a presidential veto. To do so, the Democrats would have to pick Senate seats in some of the reddest states on the map, including Georgia, Kentucky, and Mississippi. But with Alaska possibly in the Democrats hands, one more wavering--and traditionally red state--may now be out of play for the Republicans. See chart below:

US Senate Race Chart: 28 October 2008

Balance Of Power Tally: DEM-56, REP-39, TCTC-5

Current Balance: DEM-51 (49-D, 2-I) to REP-49

BOLD: Leading In Race 

Italics: Incumbent

With Democrat Jeanne Shaheen coming on strong in New Hampshire, PollTrack moves the state into the "Lean Democrat" column. PollTrack now believes it is highly likely the party will win enough seats to secure a solid majority. It may be difficult  for the Democrat's to meet their expressed goal of achieving a 60 seat majority-- the number needed to end a filibuster and close to the 2/3 required to override a presidential veto--may be difficult. To do so, the Democrats would have to pick Senate seats in some of the reddest states on the map, including Georgia, Kentucky, and Mississippi. See chart below:

US Senate Race Chart: 27 October 2008

Balance Of Power Tally: DEM-55, REP-39, TCTC-6

Current Balance: DEM-51 (49-D, 2-I) to REP-49

BOLD: Leading In Race 

Italics: Incumbent

With a number of incumbent Republican seats in jeopardy, the Democrats are coming on strong in the battle for control of the US Senate. PollTrack now believes it is highly likely the party will win enough seats to secure a solid majority. The Democrat's expressed goal of achieving a 60 seat majority-- the number needed to end a filibuster and close to the 2/3 required to override a presidential veto--may be difficult. But with McCain's numbers faltering in a number of states where Senate races are too close to call--Minnesota, New Hampshire, Oregon, and even North Carolina--Obama's coattails may be enough to pull in the requisite six seats now need to reach the magic number. See chart below:

US Senate Race Chart: 22 October 2008

Balance Of Power Tally: DEM-54, REP-39, TCTC-7

Current Balance: DEM-51 (49-D, 2-I) to REP-49

BOLD: Leading In Race 

Italics: Incumbent