Presidential Race Maps Writing on the Wall

FINAL 2012 US SENATE RACE CHART 54 DEM 0-TCTC 46 REP

Posted Nov 05, 2012 at 5:34 PM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

2012 US SENATE RACE CHART

55 DEM       0
-TCTC        45 REP



SAFE DEMOCRATIC

CA, DE, ME, MD, MN, NJ, NY, PA, RI, WA, VT, WV

LEANING DEMOCRATIC

CT: Murphy (D) vs McMahon (R)

FL: Nelson (D) vs McGillicuddy (R)

HI: Hirono (D) vs Lingle (R)

IN: Donnelly (D) vs Murdock (R)


MI: Stebenow (D) vs Hoekstra (R)

MA: Warren (D) vs Brown (R

MO: McGaskill (D) vs Akin (R)
MT : Tester (D) vs Rehberg (R)

NM: Heinrich (D) vs Wilson (R)
OH
: Brown (D) vs Mandel (R)

VA: Kaine (D) vs Allen (R)

WI: Baldwin (D) vs Thompson (R)

LEANING REPUBLICAN

AZ: Carmona (D) vs Flake (R)

ND : Heitkamp (D) vs Berg (R)

NE: Kerry (D) vs Deb Fischer (R)

NV: Berkley (D) vs Heller (R)


SAFE REPUBLICAN

MS,  TN, TX, UT, WY

2012 US SENATE RACE CHART 54 DEM 1-TCTC 45 REP

Posted Nov 05, 2012 at 11:16 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

2012 US SENATE RACE CHART

54 DEM       1
-TCTC        45 REP



SAFE DEMOCRATIC

CA, DE, ME, MD, MN, NJ, NY, PA, RI, WA, VT, WV

LEANING DEMOCRATIC

CT: Murphy (D) vs McMahon (R)

FL: Nelson (D) vs McGillicuddy (R)

HI: Hirono (D) vs Lingle (R)

IN: Donnelly (D) vs Murdock (R)


MI: Stebenow (D) vs Hoekstra (R)

MA: Warren (D) vs Brown (R

MO: McGaskill (D) vs Akin (R)

NM: Heinrich (D) vs Wilson (R)
OH
: Brown (D) vs Mandel (R)

VA: Kaine (D) vs Allen (R)

WI: Baldwin (D) vs Thompson (R)

 

TOO-CLOSE-TO-CALL


MT : Tester (D) vs Rehberg (R)

 

LEANING REPUBLICAN

AZ: Carmona (D) vs Flake (R)

ND : Heitkamp (D) vs Berg (R)

NE: Kerry (D) vs Deb Fischer (R)

NV: Berkley (D) vs Heller (R)


SAFE REPUBLICAN

MS,  TN, TX, UT, WY

2012 US SENATE RACE CHART 53 DEM 2-TCTC 45 REP

Posted Nov 04, 2012 at 1:04 PM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

2012 US SENATE RACE CHART

53 DEM       2
-TCTC        45 REP



SAFE DEMOCRATIC

CA, DE, ME, MD, MN, NJ, NY, PA, RI, WA, VT, WV

LEANING DEMOCRATIC

CT: Murphy (D) vs McMahon (R)

FL: Nelson (D) vs McGillicuddy (R)

HI: Hirono (D) vs Lingle (R)

IN: Donnelly (D) vs Murdock (R)

MI: Stebenow (D) vs Hoekstra (R)

MA: Warren (D) vs Brown (R

MO: McGaskill (D) vs Akin (R)

NM: Heinrich (D) vs Wilson (R)
OH
: Brown (D) vs Mandel (R)

WI: Baldwin (D) vs Thompson (R)

 

TOO-CLOSE-TO-CALL

 



MT : Tester (D) vs Rehberg (R)

VA: Kaine (D) vs Allen (R)

 

LEANING REPUBLICAN

AZ: Carmona (D) vs Flake (R)

ND : Heitkamp (D) vs Berg (R)

NE: Kerry (D) vs Deb Fischer (R)

NV: Berkley (D) vs Heller (R)




SAFE REPUBLICAN

MS,  TN, TX, UT, WY

Democrats Loose Key House Race

Posted Nov 02, 2010 at 12:55 PM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

Democrat Perriello looses to Republican Hurt in Virginia US House race. Another key GOP pick up, another sign of impending Republican take over. US Senate remains in play, but Democrats may soon have their majority locked up.

Key House Loses For Democrats

Posted Nov 02, 2010 at 12:45 PM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

Key loses for Democrats in US House races in Indiana and Virginia. A GOP takeover of house is looking increasingly likely.

VA US Senate 2012: Is Republican George Allen Thinking About A Comeback?

Posted Jan 08, 2010 at 2:20 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

The Washington Post reports that former Republican US Senator George Allen "is thinking pretty seriously about public office, including a possible rematch against Democrat Jim Webb, who defeated Allen in 2006 by fewer than 10,000 votes." A just released poll (though it was taken in August) by Public Policy Polling in Virginia finds Allen leading Webb by an insignificant 44% to 43%. PPP writes: "The 'Macaca' incident certainly played a part in Allen's 2006 loss, but its being a terrible year for Republicans nationally may have played a bigger role. He would have survived in most other election cycles, and his present numbers are an indication that he's far from unelectable in the future."

VA Governor 2009: Obama Hurt Democrat Deeds

Posted Nov 11, 2009 at 1:09 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

Pollster Glen Bolger writes that President Obama became an important factor in voters' decision making in the 2009 Virginia gubernatorial race: "By a 55% to 35% margin, voters thought it was best to elect a governor who would serve as a check and balance to Obama . . . Concern about his policies overreaching permeated to a gubernatorial campaign and helped widen the size of McDonnell's win. It allowed the campaign to focus on issues that hadn't been working in recent years for Republican candidates. Concern about Obama's policies on spending, taxes, and jobs allowed McDonnell to thoroughly dominate those issues. The checks and balances message is a key one, but the bigger lesson about Obama's impact on Virginia is that his policies have put fiscal and economic messages back into play for Republicans."

Projection: Republicans Sweep All Statewide Contests In VA

Posted Nov 03, 2009 at 12:11 PM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

CNN projects that Republicans will sweep all three statewide races in Virginia: governor, lieutenant governor, and attorney general.

AP Projection: Republican Bob McDonnell Wins VA Gubernatorial Race

Posted Nov 03, 2009 at 11:56 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

The Associated Press projects that Republican Bob McDonnell has won the Virginia gubernatorial election over his Democratic opponent Creigh Deeds.

VA Governor's Race: Young Voters Stayed Home

Posted Nov 03, 2009 at 11:13 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

According to exit polls, only 10% of young voters showed up in Virginia today, versus 20% in last year's election. Again, bad news for Democrat Deeds. Another issue: does this drop off--as well as the loss of independent voters--also suggest a weakening of the Obama coalition? 

Exit Polls Suggest Independents Breaking For Republican In VA

Posted Nov 03, 2009 at 11:09 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

Early exit poll suggests that independent voters in Virginia are breaking for Republican Bob McDonnell by a wide margin--60% to 39%. If this trend holds, it is very bad news for Democrat Creigh Deeds.

CNN Exit Polls NJ & VA: Obama Not A Factor

Posted Nov 03, 2009 at 10:26 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

According to CNN's Exit Poll in New Jersey & Virginia:

New Jersey: "Six in 10 voters said Tuesday that President Obama had no effect on their vote in this off-year gubernatorial election, according to early CNN Exit Poll data. Obama visited New Jersey this week to campaign for embattled Gov. Jon Corzine, who is locked in a tough re-election contest with Republican Chris Christie. When asked if Obama had an effect on their vote, 60 percent responded he was not a factor, 20 percent said their vote was meant to express opposition to him, and 19 percent said it was to support him."

Virginia: "There's been plenty of talk by political pundits that Virginia's gubernatorial contest was a referendum on President Barack Obama, but voters don't agree . . . Fifty-five percent of Virgina voters polled say that Obama was not a factor in how they voted, with 24 percent suggesting that their vote was meant to express opposition to the president, and 18 percent indicating that their vote was meant to express support for Obama."

LIVE BLOG 7:00 PM EST TONIGHT Tuesday, 3 November

Posted Nov 02, 2009 at 3:44 PM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

PollTrack will be blogging live tonight, Election Night, tracking and interpreting results starting at 7:00 PM EST. So check in and stick with us for continuous coverage of the gubernatorial races in Virginia and, New Jersey,mayoral race in New York City, special election in NY-23, and the Maine "Gay Marriage" initiative and other races.

PollTrack FINAL Polling Average: A Summation

Posted Nov 02, 2009 at 11:16 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

Here is a brief summary of PollTrack's FINAL polling averages for five key races in tomorrow's Off-Year Election:

 

Maine Gay Marriage Referendum

Lead: FOR gay marriage--+2.7%

 

New Jersey Governor

Lead: Republican Chris Christie--+0.5%

 

Virginia Governor

Lead: Republican Bob McDonnell--+14.4%

 

NY-23 Special Election

Lead: Conservative Doug Hoffman--+8.0%


New York City Mayor

Lead: Independent Michael Bloomberg--+12.7%

 

 

VA Governor 2009: Final Average Shows Strong Republican Lead

Posted Nov 02, 2009 at 8:57 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

PollTrack's FINAL average of polling in Virginia for the 2009 gubernatorial race:

 Bob McDonnell (R): 55.0%

Creigh Deeds (D): 40.6%

Lead: Republican Bob McDonnell--+14.4%

VA Governor 2009: Republican McDonnell Far Ahead

Posted Nov 02, 2009 at 1:32 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

PollTrack's average of polling in Virginia for the 2009 gubernatorial race:

 Bob McDonnell (R): 54.0%

Creigh Deeds (D): 40.6%

Lead: Republican Bob McDonnell--+13.4%


Check Back Late-Afternoon, Early-Evening for PollTrack's Final Poll Average in Virginia. 

VA Governor 2009: Republican McDonnell Sailing To Victory

Posted Oct 30, 2009 at 6:18 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

PollTrack's average of polling in Virginia for the 2009 gubernatorial race:

 

Bob McDonnell (R): 54.6%

Creigh Deeds (D): 40.3%

Lead: Republican Bob McDonnell--+14.3%

VA Governor 2009: Democratic Deeds Campaign Appears To Collapse

Posted Oct 27, 2009 at 6:00 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

With a week to go until Election 2009, PollTrack's aggregate poll numbers suggest that the campaign of Democrat Creigh Deeds is collapsing in Virginia. Some polls now show Republican Bob McDonnell ahead by as much as +19%. Our average gives the GOP candidate an aggregate lead of +13.8%, 55.4% to 41.6%.

VA Governor 2009: PollTrack Average Has Republican up by 13.5%

Posted Oct 22, 2009 at 2:44 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

PollTrack polling average for the upcoming Virginia gubernatorial race has Republican Bob McDonnell up by a whopping +13.5%--54% to 40.5%--over his Democratic challenger, Creigh Deeds.

VA Governor 2009: Democratic Creigh Deeds Well Behind

Posted Oct 20, 2009 at 1:57 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

PollTrack's poll average in Virginia's upcoming gubernatorial race suggests that the GOP candidate remains in a solid position: Republican Bob McDonnell bests Democrat Creight Deeds by +10.5%--47.5% to 37.0%. A month ago, the race had tightened considerably; now it appears that Deeds cannot make up a deficit that places him 13% BELOW the 50% mark.

VA Governor 2009: Republican Maintains Solid Lead

Posted Oct 12, 2009 at 1:49 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

Commensurate with all other rect polling in Virginia's 2009 gubernatorial race, Republican Bob McDonnell continues to hold a solid lead over his Democratic opponent, according to a new Mason-Dixon poll: McDonnell leads Creigh Deeds, 48% to 40% with 12 % undecided. "The poll suggests that McDonnell is heading into the final three weeks of the race largely unscathed from Deeds' continuing focus on McDonnell's controversial 1989 law-school thesis. Further, the poll depicts an electorate, perhaps because of continuing economic anxiety and contentious policy debates in Washington and Richmond, cooling to the dominant Democratic establishment."

VA Governor 2009: Democratic Brand Suffering As Republican Maintains Large Lead

Posted Oct 06, 2009 at 2:56 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

While the gap has narrowed slightly, SurveyUSA reports that Republican Bob McDonnell maintains a large lead over Democrat Creigh Deeds--a lead which places him well over the all-important 50% mark: "In the election for Virginia Governor . . . one month until votes are counted, Republican Bob McDonnell defeats Democrat Creigh Deeds, 54% to 43%. Compared to an identical SurveyUSA poll one week ago, Deeds has gained ground among women, among voters age 50 to 64, and in Southeast VA. In 4 identical SurveyUSA tracking polls conducted for WJLA-TV in Washington DC and WDBJ-TV in Roanoke, McDonnell has polled at 55%, 54%, 55%, 54%. Deeds has polled at 40%, 42%, 41%, 43%."

Even more troubling for the Democrats, Republicans also maintain considerable leads (by similar margins) in two other statewide races: In the contest for Lieutenant Governor, incumbent Republican Bill Bolling leads Democrat Jody Wagner, former Treasurer of VA and VA Secretary of Finance, 57% to 40%. In the Attorney general contest, Republican state senator Ken Cuccinelli bests Democrat state representative Steve Shannon 53% to 43%.

VA Governor 2009: Is Democratic Creigh Deeds In Trouble?

Posted Oct 01, 2009 at 2:29 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

According to one new poll by SurveyUSA, one of the most accurate pollsters in the 2008 election cycle, Democrat Creigh Deeds is in serious trouble in his quest to defeat Republican Bob McDonnell in November's race for Virginia governor. Just weeks ago, it appeared the race was tightening. Another recent survey by Public Policy Polling suggested that the Democrat had narrowed his deficit to 4%. Yet, as of yesterday. SurveyUSA gives McDonnell a whopping +14% lead over Creigh Deeds, 55% to 41%, in the race for governor. A just released Rasmussen poll splits the difference, so to speak, finding a +9% lead for McDonnell, 51% to 42%. Still, the poll indicates that the Republican's position has improved over the past few weeks, yet another red flag for Democrat Deeds.

VA Governor 2009: Race Continues to Tighten

Posted Sep 28, 2009 at 1:30 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

A new Insider Advantage survey in Virginia's gubernatorial upcoming race shows that things are continuing to tighten: Republican Bob McDonnell bests Democrat Creight Deeds by +4%--48% to 44%.

VA Governor 2009: Race Is Tightening

Posted Sep 21, 2009 at 1:32 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

As of Sunday evening, the PollTrack polling average in this year's gubernatorial race in Virginia suggests that Democrat Creigh Deeds has made modest inroads against his GOP challenger, Bob McDonnell. The Republican now leads by +4.5%--47.8% to 43.3%--a more than fifty percent drop in support for McDonnell from a month ago. A just released Washington Post poll has even better news for the Democrat: "Dramatic shifts among independent female voters and Northern Virginians over the past month have propelled" Deeds to within four points of Bob McDonnell (R) in the race for Virginia governor, 51% to 47%.Stay tuned.

VA Governor 2009: Democratic Creigh Deeds In Serious Trouble

Posted Sep 14, 2009 at 1:41 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

With PollTrack's aggregate numbers in Virginia's upcoming gubernatorial race indicating a substantial Republican advantage--Bob McDonnell now leads Democratic Creigh Deeds, 51.3% to 42%--the Democrats path has grown narrower. With six week to go, the GOP candidate is now well over the KEY 50%, with an aggregate lead of +9.3%. Not an insurmountable lead, but daunting nevertheless.

An individual poll from one of the most accurate pollsters in the 2008 Election Cycle--SurveyUSA--suggests an even more dire situation for Deeds and for Democrats in general in the state: "In statewide elections in Virginia today, two months until votes are counted, Republicans sweep, taking the statehouse away from the Democrats and holding the Lieutenant Governor and Attorney General offices . . . For Governor, McDonnell appears undamaged and today defeats Deeds. Compared to an identical SurveyUSA poll released five weeks ago, the race has tightened slightly, not dramatically. There is movement to Deeds in the Washington DC suburbs, where a 15-point McDonnell lead has evaporated, but there is no GOP erosion in the rest of the state. There is softening in McDonnell's support among voters age 50+, but that is offset by gains for McDonnell among voters age 35 to 49. Of those who voted for Barack Obama in 2008 and who are judged by SurveyUSA to be likely to vote in November 2009, 13% cross-over for McDonnell, twice the number of McCain voters who cross-over for Deeds." McDonnell holds a +12% lead in the survey. 

VA Governor 2009: Republican McDonnell Maintains Healthy Lead

Posted Sep 08, 2009 at 1:25 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

PollTrack's polling average for the gubernatorial race in Virginia, now just two months away, suggests that Republican Bob McDonnell remains in a very strong position. As of Sunday evening, McDonnell leads his Democratic challenger R. Creigh Deeds 51.3% to 42%,for a solid lead of +9.3 points. Significantly, McDonnell has remained at or above the all-important 50% mark for months.

VA Governor 2009: Race Tightening?

Posted Sep 04, 2009 at 1:50 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

According to one survey, the race for Virginia Governor has tightened up considerably over the past month, with Republican Bob McDonnell "now leading Creigh Deeds 49% to 42%. A PPP survey released in early August had the contest at 51% to 37%. The main reason for the narrowing is increased interest in the election among Democratic voters. While we were looking at an electorate for this fall that supported John McCain by an 11 point margin a month ago, that’s now narrowed to 4 points as more Obama supporters express their intention to vote in the off year election. The key to this race continues to be the significant imbalance among independent voters. They support McDonnell by a margin of 60% to 29%. That’s been a trend in our polls, as the Republican held leads of 19 and 21 points with those voters in our July and August surveys. Attacks on McDonnell do appear to be having some effect: his favorability has seen a slight decline from 54/26 a month ago to now 53/31. Deeds’ numbers are now 47/35, relatively similar to 43/32 on the previous survey." Yet, another, even more recent poll by Rasmussen, indicates that little has changed, with McDonnell's lead at a solid +9%--51% to 42%.

WASHINGTON POST Poll: Republican Has Clear Lead in 2009 VA Governor's Race

Posted Aug 17, 2009 at 2:03 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

A new Washington Post poll suggests that the Republican candidate for Governor in Virginia, Bob McDonnell has a clear lead over his Democratic opponent, R. Creigh Deeds: "McDonnell is favored over Deeds among all registered voters, 47 to 40 percent, and is up by an even steeper margin, 54 to 39 percent, among those who say they are certain to vote in November. In vote-rich Northern Virginia, where President Obama and other successful Democrats have won large majorities, the two run about even, 45 percent for Deeds to 42 percent for McDonnell among all registered voters. Even in the innermost Washington suburbs -- which the Democrat from rural Bath County won handily in his party's primary -- the candidates are running about even. McDonnell, who lives outside Richmond, leads by nine points in the rest of the state. McDonnell's advantage in a race being watched nationally as an early electoral test for Obama serves as a warning sign for Democrats, who are eager to hold on to the governor's mansion in what has become a crucial swing state."

2009 Election Update: Virginia--Republican Expands Lead

Posted Aug 13, 2009 at 2:23 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

According to a new Rasmussen survey, Republican Bob McDonnell has expanded his lead over Democrat Creigh Deeds in Virginia's Gubernatorial race: "Republican candidate Robert F. McDonnell has opened a nine-point lead over Democrat R. Creigh Deeds in the race for governor in Virginia. {The latest] survey of Virginia voters finds McDonnell leading Deeds 47% to 38%. Three percent (3%) prefer some other candidate, and 12% are undecided. These figures reflect an improvement for McDonnell. A month ago, the GOP hopeful led by just three percentage points. Since then, he has gained three percentage points of support while Deeds has lost three percentage points.

2009 Election Update: New Jersey

Posted Aug 12, 2009 at 1:23 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

Overall, things continue to look bleak for incumbent Democratic Governor Jon Corzine in his race against Republican challenger Chris Christie. The latest PollTrack average in the state shows the GOP candidate with a whopping +12.1% lead: 50.3% to 38.2%. Even more daunting for Corzine: Christie has jumped over the all-important 50% threshold. (Still, the latest Quinnipiac Poll suggests a slight uptick for Cprzine; it has Christie leading by +9%, 51% to 42%.)

2009 Election Update: Virginia

Posted Aug 10, 2009 at 3:22 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

While Democratic Creigh deeds has slightly improved his standing in the Virginia's 2009 Governor's race against Republic Bob McDonnell according to a new poll, the underlying numbers suggests that Deeds is still in trouble. While the DailyKos/ Research 2000 poll finds Bob McDonnell (R) leading Creigh Deeds (D), 51% to 43%, the Republic is up over the all-important 50% mark and the poll's internal breakdown suggests this might not change soon: "People sitting on the sidelines as 'undecided' back in mid-June, post-primary, are now falling behind McDonnell. And the gains come almost entirely from independents -- they leaned McDonnell 47% to 44% back in June, but now break heavily for the Republican 55% to 40%. McDonnell has even managed to peal away a few points of Democratic support, growing from 13% to 17%. Deeds, for his part, garners a scant 6% of Republican support."

2009 Election Update: Virginia

Posted Aug 05, 2009 at 1:15 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

Bob McDonnell, the Republican candidate for Governor in Virginia has expanded his lead over Democrat Creigh deeds, according to a new Public Policy Polling survey. The numbers may say more about the enthusiasm of GOP vs Democratic voters as well as the declining approval rating of President Obama in the state: "In a result probably owing more to the shift against Democrats in the national political climate than anything going on in Virginia, Bob McDonnell now leads Creigh Deeds 51-37 in the race to become the next Governor of Virginia."

PPP continues: "It’s not that voters are changing sides from last fall- the 5% of John McCain’s voters planning to vote for Deeds is actually equal to the 5% of Barack Obama’s voters planning to vote for McDonnell. But Republicans, on a losing streak in Virginia, appear to be more motivated about heading to the polls at this point three months before the election . . . McDonnell has a 52-33 lead among independents and has locked up 94% of the
Republican vote while Deeds is at 80% with Democrats. There is some good news for Deeds in the poll, as he leads 64-3 among African Americans. The 33% of undecided voters in that group will likely move toward Deeds as the election approaches, tightening up the race. 'As Barack Obama’s approval rating in Virginia declines we’re finding that Bob McDonnell is the beneficiary,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. 'That said, Creigh Deeds was 16 points back five weeks before the primary and charged back to win so it’s way too early to count him out.'"

2009 Election Update: Virginia

Posted Aug 03, 2009 at 1:33 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

With more recent polls indicating a jump in support for the Republican candidate for Governor in Virginia, the 2009 race is starting to appear difficult for the Democrats. As of Sunday evening, the aggregate polling average in the states puts Republican Bob McDonnell at 48.3% and Democrat Creigh Deeds at 42%. Furthermore, McDonnell is inching perilously close to the 50% mark. The Republican advantage in the state has almost doubled from a week ago and now stands at +6.3%.

VA Governor 2009: Republican McDonnell Now Way Ahead

Posted Jul 30, 2009 at 1:53 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

According to the latest poll by SurveyUSA--one of the most accurate pollsters in the 2008 cycle--Democrat Creigh Deeds has fallen significantly behind in Virginia's 2009 Governor's race: "Republican Bob McDonnell today defeats Democrat Creigh Deeds 55% to 40%. McDonnell, former Attorney General of Virginia, leads by 25 points among men, by 5 points among women. Deeds, a state senator who ran against McDonnell in the tightly-fought 2005 race for Attorney General, leads 6:1 among African Americans, 8:1 among Democrats, and 13:1 among liberals. Among moderates, Deeds is ahead by 8 points. McDonnell carries independents 2:1, and is above 50% in all regions of the state. Gun owners vote 2:1 McDonnell. Those without guns vote 5:4 Deeds. 14% of those who say they voted for Barack Obama in the 2008 Presidential election say they will vote for Republican McDonnell in the gubernatorial contest; 9% of John McCain voters say they will cross over and vote for Democrat Deeds." These numbers siggest that what had been a relatively close race may in face be widening for the Republican.

2009 Election Update: Virginia

Posted Jul 27, 2009 at 2:00 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

While the race has grown somewhat closer in Virginia's upcoming election for Governor, PollTrack's polling average for the state still shows Republican Bob McDonnell with a modest lead over Democrat Creigh Deeds: 46.3% to 42.8%, for an Republican advantage of + 3.5%.

VA Governor 2009: Republican McDonnell Continues To Lead

Posted Jul 16, 2009 at 1:31 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

A new Rasmussen survey reports that "Republican candidate Robert F. McDonnell has rebounded to take a narrow lead over Democrat R. Creigh Deeds in the race for governor in Virginia, highlighting the expected closeness of that contest right up to November." Among VA voters, "McDonnell leads Deeds 44% to 41%; 3% prefer some other candidate, and 12% are undecided . . . McDonnell has an 12-point lead among men. Deeds leads by five among female voters . . . 50% of Virginia voters have a favorable view of McDonnell, with 25% whose opinion is very favorable. 27% regard him unfavorably, including 7% very unfavorable. 22% don’t know enough abut McDonnell to venture an opinion of him. Deeds is seen favorably by 49%, with 19% very favorable, and unfavorably by 35%, including 11% who have a very unfavorable view of him. 17% aren’t sure what they think of the Democrat. McDonnell’s numbers are little changed from last month, but Deeds has suffered a 10-point drop in his favorables."

New Jersey: Is The National Economy Hurting Corzine In His Rellection Quest?

Posted Jul 13, 2009 at 1:57 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

One serious problem facing incumbent New Jersey Democratic Governor Jon Corzine in his 2009 reelection race according to Rasmussen Reports: a growing sense in the state that the nation is falling further into economic disarray: Just 4% of New Jersey voters rate the economy as good or excellent while 65% say it's in poor shape. 23% say things are getting better, but 47% say they are getting worse. PollTrack has noted this same phenomena in other states where the economy is suffering and incumbent Democratic governors now in trouble, including the key swing states of Virginia (a race that will also be decided this November) and Ohio.

New Poll: VA Gubernatorial Race Now A Tie

Posted Jun 19, 2009 at 1:33 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

A just released DailyKos/Research 2000 poll reports that Republican Bob McDonnell is now edging Democrat Creigh Deeds in the Virginia gubernatorial race--45% to 44%. Given the poll's margin of error of +/- 4 points, the race is essentially tied. The public appears to have a better of the Republican, who has a favorability rating 55% to 36%; Deeds is at 47% to 35%.

Democrat Deeds Leading In 2009 VA Governor's Race

Posted Jun 17, 2009 at 1:41 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

The Democrats appear to now hold a slight edge in Virginia's race for Governor. According to an Anzalone Liszt Research (D), Democrat Creigh Deeds (D) leads Republican Bob McDonnell, 42% to 38%. (The poll was conducted for the Democratic Governor's Association, so it may have a partisan tilt.) Deeds has a slightly higher favorability rating, as well: Deeds favorable ratio is 48% to 14%; McDonnell's 43% to 19%.

VA Governor: New Poll Shows Democrat Deeds In The Lead

Posted Jun 12, 2009 at 1:53 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

With the Democratic primary for Governor over in Virginia, a new poll by Rasmussen reports that the Democrat, R. Creigh deeds leads Republican challenger, former Attorney General Robert F. McDonnell, by six points, 47% to 41%. 2% favor another candidate and 10% are undecided.The race is somewhat of a rematch: McDonnell beat Deeds in the 2005 state attorney general’s race by less than 400-votes, one of the closest elections in Virginia history.

Not Even Close: Creigh Deeds Wins VA Democratic Gubernatorial Primary

Posted Jun 09, 2009 at 4:36 PM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

It's not even Close. Creigh deeds wins the Virginia Democratic gubernatorial primary by a wide margin. Here is the result from the VA Board of Elections, with nearly all of the vote counted:

CANDIDATE VOTE VOTE% STATISTICS DETAILS
Governor

Last Reported: Jun 9 2009 10:31PM EST


R. Creigh Deeds
159,324 49.73% Precincts Reporting:
    2,499 of 2,504 (99.80%)

Voter Turnout:
    320,369 of 4,959,506 active voters (6.459%)
    320,369 of 5,071,226 total voters (6.317%)
Votes by County/City

Votes by District

Terry R. McAuliffe
84,640 26.41%

Brian J. Moran
76,405 23.84%


Tunrnout Low In VA Democratic Gubernatorial Primary

Posted Jun 09, 2009 at 5:38 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

The New York Times reports that voter turnout appears to be very low in Virginia in today's Democratic gubernatorial primary: "Democratic voters in Virginia trickled to the polls Tuesday, as heavy morning rains dampened what was already expected to be a low turnout for the close of an unusually contentious, expensive and closely-watched primary for governor. The race is one of two elections for governor this year — the other is in New Jersey — and both national parties are strongly involved. Democrats hope to continue their party’s recent winning streak in this historically conservative state . . . Polling stations in McLean, Arlington and Alexandria looked more like ghost towns as poll workers outnumbered voters three to one during what was supposed to be the before-work rush around 8 a.m." With turnout expected at no greater than 10%, PollTrack suggests that the outcome of the election could be skewed in favor of the most well-organized candidate. Pre-election polls showed Creigh Deeds surging ahead, picking up the lion's share of undecided voters.

2009 Virginia Governor's Race: May Be Tough For Democrats Come November

Posted Jun 09, 2009 at 1:54 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

Whoever wins today's primary for the Democratic gubernatorial nomination in Virginia, one senior politician's on-the-ground oberservation about the mood of voters in the state should give Democrats reason to be concerned: Democrat Douglas Wilder, who became the country's first African-American governor when Virginians elected him in 1989, "thinks that no matter who emerges victorious from the state's Democratic gubernatorial primary on Tuesday, the party will find it awfully tough to defeat Republican candidate Bob McDonnell in November. Wilder said there's something in the air' that makes him think Virginia voters aren't prepared to elect a Democrat to the governorship for the third straight time. Democrats Mark Warner and Tim Kaine have won the last two gubernatorial elections in the commonwealth. Before that, Republicans won two consecutive victories with George Allen and Jim Gilmore. 'Each time around, voters say, "Wait a minute, no one's supposed to be here forever," and I think Virginians like to see that degree of balance,' Wilder said in an interview with CNN. 'They like to mix it up. I think the guy who can ride that horse to show some grasp of the independent voter, rather than just the Republican or Democratic voter, will be successful. That's key.'"

Deeds Take Significant Lead In VA Democratic Gubernatorial Primary

Posted Jun 08, 2009 at 2:29 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

According to a Public Policy Polling survey released late yesterday, Democrat Creigh Deeds has taken a healthy lead in Virginia's Democratic gubernatorial primary. The poll also shows the formerly large bloc of undecided voters breaking for Deeds: "Two days before the election Creigh Deeds has opened up a commanding lead in the Democratic primary for Governor of Virginia. Deeds is now at 40%, followed by Terry McAuliffe at 26% and Brian Moran at 24%. In the last week Deeds has gained 13 points while McAuliffe and Moran have each advanced by just two. Deeds now leads in every region of the state except Hampton Roads, including a 38-35 lead over Moran in northern Virginia, where just two and a half weeks ago Deeds was polling at only 11%. Deeds is up over 50% in the parts of the state outside Washington DC/Richmond/Hampton Roads."

Survey USA: VA Democratic Gubernatorial Primary Too Close To Call

Posted Jun 04, 2009 at 2:07 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

According to a new poll by Survey USA, one of the most accurate and reliable polsters of the 2008 cycle, next week's Democratic gubenatorial primary in Virginia is too close to call. And a number of signs point to the increasing volatility of a race that former Democratic party chairman Terry McAuliffe had appeared to be walking away with: 6 days till Virginia voters choose the Democratic nominee for Governor, there is unusual volatility in SurveyUSA's tracking graphs, reflected in the newest data gathered for WJLA-TV Washington DC and WDBJ-TV Roanoke. Overall, former Democratic National Committee chair Terry McAuliffe remains on top today with 35%, state senator Creigh Deeds has 29%, former state delegate Brian Moran 26%. But, enough is happening below the surface to add considerable drama to Tuesday's outcome. Half of Survey USA likely voters say they may yet change their mind. Among voters who say their mind is made up, Deeds leads, with McAuliffe and Moran a half-dozen points back. Where is the volatility? Men are breaking for Moran."

Is Terry McAuliffe Loosing Steam in VA Democratic Gubernatorial Primary?

Posted Jun 03, 2009 at 2:22 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

Is Terry McAuliffe in trouble in his bid for the Democratic gubernatorial nomination in Virginia. A new survey suggests that the former DNC head may not be as far ahead as some recent polls have suggested: The SurveyUSA poll reports that in four Northern Virginia counties -- Fairfax, Arlington, Loudoun and Price William -- challenger Brian Moran (D) "remains a force" with just one week until voters head to the polls. Moran leads with 43% in the DC suburbs, followed by McAuliffe (D) at 27% and Creigh Deeds (D) at 20%. PollTrack suggests that since this region makes more than a quarter of the state's likely Democratic voters--and often has very high turnout--the race may be far from over for Moran. Another survey actually reports that McAuliffe is no longer the presumptive leader: Public Policy Polling reports that Creigh Deeds now leads at 27%, followed by Terry McAuliffe at 24%, and Brian Moran at 22%.
But the race remains very close, since these numbers are well within the poll's margin of error. The PPP survey suggest that it is Deeds who might have the momentum: Over the last month Deeds has gone from 14% to 27% while McAuliffe has dropped from 30% to 24% and Moran has pretty much stayed in place.

VA Governor: Slight Shift In Democratic Primary Polling

Posted May 22, 2009 at 1:49 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

Who's ahead in Virginia in the June 2009 election to achieve the Democratic nomination for Governor. According to Survey USA: Former Democratic National Committee chair Terry McAuliffe continues to run strongest of the 3 candidates for Democratic nomination for Virginia Governor . . . three weeks to the Primary, it's McAuliffe 37%, Creigh Deeds 26%, Brian Moran 22%. Compared to an identical SurveyUSA poll three weeks ago, McAuliffe and Moran are flat, Deeds is up. 57% of likely Democratic Primary voters today say they may change their mind -- down from 64% three weeks ago - but high enough to describe a fluid electorate still evaluating its options. McAuliffe, who ran Hillary Clinton's 2008 presidential campaign, is 11 points atop Deeds, a state senator -- but Deeds is the only candidate with momentum, and today leads McAuliffe in Central Virginia by 12 points, a 19-point swing to Deeds in the past 3 weeks. Deeds and McAuliffe remain tied in the Shenandoah; McAuliffe remains in command in the southeastern portion of the state. In Northern Virginia, Moran's 23-point lead three weeks ago is today a 10-point lead." 

Still, according to a Daily Kos/Research 2000 poll, the overall picture is NOT good for the Democrats in Virginia: In general election match ups, presumptive Republican nominee Bob McDonnell (R) bests all of the potential Democratic nominees. McDonnell is ahead of McAuliffe 44% to 34%, tops Moran, 42% to 35%, and leads Deeds, 45% to 32%.

One Democrat Jumps To Lead In Party Primary for VA Governor

Posted May 01, 2009 at 1:53 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

One candidate appears to have an advantage in the 2009 Democratic primary for Virginia Governor: A new SurveyUSA poll in Virginia finds Terry McAuliffe leading his rivals for the Democratic gubernatorial nomination with 38%, followed by Creigh Deeds and Brian Moran each with 22%." The survey also reports that "64% of likely primary voters say they may change their mind," thus blunting the overall result of the poll.

Republicans Favored in 2009 Governor's VA Governor's Race

Posted Feb 09, 2009 at 2:16 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

According to a Rasmussen Reports survey, the Republicans appear to have an advantage in the upcoming 2009 Virginia Governor's race: "Republican Attorney General Robert F. McDonnell has a three-to-nine point lead against three hopefuls for the Democratic nomination in this year’s closely-watched Virginia gubernatorial contest . . . the lone Republican gubernatorial candidate topping his best-known opponent, Terry McAuliffe, by seven points, 42% to 35%. In December, he held a five-point edge over McAuliffe, a longtime Clinton confidant, major Democratic fund-raiser and former national party chairman. McDonnell is even further ahead of Rep. R. Creigh Deeds of Bath County – 39% to 30%. The two men were tied two months ago. Brian J. Moran, a former state delegate from Alexandria, led McDonnell by four points in the earlier survey but now trails by three, 39% to 36%."