Presidential Race Maps Writing on the Wall

New Jersey Republican Governor Unpopular

Posted Apr 30, 2010 at 12:42 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

After just three months in office, the Republican Governor of New Jersey, Chris Christie, has lost considerable support in the state, according to a new SurveyUSA poll. His approval rating is now only 33%; nearly twice the number, 63% disapprove.

"Enthusiasm Gap": Will it Hurt The Democrats In 2010?

Posted Dec 02, 2009 at 1:20 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

A new Research 2000/Daily Kos survey reports a striking "enthusiasm gap" in the intention of Democrats and Republicans to voter in next year's congressional election: "The results were, to put it mildly, shocking:

Voter Intensity: Definitely + Probably Voting/Not Likely + Not Voting

Republican Voters: 81/14
Independent Voters: 65/23
DEMOCRATIC VOTERS: 56/40

Two in five Democratic voters either consider themselves unlikely to vote at this point in time, or have already made the firm decision to remove themselves from the 2010 electorate pool. Indeed, Democrats were three times more likely to say that they will "definitely not vote" in 2010 than are Republicans."

Will this gap adversely effect the 2010 midterms?  PollTrack beliebes that while this is not a good sign for Democrats, it's still too early to tell. Stay tuned.

New York Gov. Peterson's Approval Rating: Dismal

Posted Jul 02, 2009 at 1:52 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

Things seem to just get worse and worse for New York Governor David Paterson. A new Marist College Poll reports: "The news for Governor David Paterson remains grim.  The governor’s approval rating is an abysmal 21%, and with the New York State Senate in disarray, nearly half of the state’s electorate says they disapprove of the way in which the governor is handling the situation while 43% approve.  To make matters even worse, more than six in ten registered voters disapprove of the way Paterson is dealing with the state’s economic crisis.How bad is Governor Paterson’s political situation?  The answer is pretty bad.  According to The Marist Poll’s new statewide survey, about one in five registered voters in New York — 21% — report that Governor Paterson is doing either an excellent or good job in office.  Voters’ view of the governor’s job performance is little changed since The Marist Poll last asked this question in May.  At that time, 19% of voters gave Paterson’s job performance above average marks.  And, the governor still does not receive affirmation from a major share of voters within his own party.  However, he has received a slight bump among Democrats in New York State.  28% believe Governor Paterson is doing an excellent or good job in office.  This compares with the 22% of Democrats he received in May."

2009 Virginia Governor's Race: May Be Tough For Democrats Come November

Posted Jun 09, 2009 at 1:54 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

Whoever wins today's primary for the Democratic gubernatorial nomination in Virginia, one senior politician's on-the-ground oberservation about the mood of voters in the state should give Democrats reason to be concerned: Democrat Douglas Wilder, who became the country's first African-American governor when Virginians elected him in 1989, "thinks that no matter who emerges victorious from the state's Democratic gubernatorial primary on Tuesday, the party will find it awfully tough to defeat Republican candidate Bob McDonnell in November. Wilder said there's something in the air' that makes him think Virginia voters aren't prepared to elect a Democrat to the governorship for the third straight time. Democrats Mark Warner and Tim Kaine have won the last two gubernatorial elections in the commonwealth. Before that, Republicans won two consecutive victories with George Allen and Jim Gilmore. 'Each time around, voters say, "Wait a minute, no one's supposed to be here forever," and I think Virginians like to see that degree of balance,' Wilder said in an interview with CNN. 'They like to mix it up. I think the guy who can ride that horse to show some grasp of the independent voter, rather than just the Republican or Democratic voter, will be successful. That's key.'"

Public Policy Polling: US Senator Approval Ratings

Posted May 26, 2009 at 2:06 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

A very interesting survey from Public Policy Polling takes stock of the approval ratings of a number of US Senators. The highest approval rating of the lot: Democrat Amy Klobuchar from Minnesota. The lowest: embattled Illinois Democratic Roland Burris, who replace Barack Obama. Here is the list:

enator

Approval

Amy Klobuchar (D-MN)

62/25

Tom Coburn (R-OK)

59/29

Kay Bailey Hutchison (R-TX)

58/31

Tom Carper (D-DE)

57/26

Kit Bond (R-MO)

57/27

Mark Pryor (D-AR)

54/30

John McCain (R-AZ)

53/31

James Inhofe (R-OK)

52/35

Dick Durbin (D-IL)

47/34

Blanche Lincoln (D-AR)

45/40

Jim Webb (D-VA)

44/33

Mitch McConnell (R-KY)

44/47

Bill Nelson (D-FL)

42/29

Mark Udall (D-CO)

41/46

Richard Burr (R-NC)

36/32

Ted Kaufman (D-DE)

35/24

Michael Bennet (D-CO)

34/41

Kay Hagan (D-NC)

33/33

Johnny Isakson (R-GA)

30/25

George Voinovich (R-OH)

30/38

Jim Bunning (R-KY)

28/54

Mel Martinez (R-FL)

23/37

Roland Burris (D-IL)

17/62

Dem. Chris Dodd Lacks Voter Support in 2010 CT. Senate Rellection Bid

Posted Apr 22, 2009 at 1:05 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

As if we needed another sign of the unpopularity of Connecticut Democratic US Senator Christopher Dodd, a local newspaper reports that "Dodd appears to have looked everywhere but his home state to fuel what pundits anticipate will be one of the most hotly contested races in the nation in 2010. The five-term incumbent reported raising just $4,250 from five Connecticut residents during the first three months of the year while raking in $604,745 from nearly 400 individuals living outside the state. While incumbents often turn to special interests for early campaign fundraising, Dodd's out-of-state total seems unusually high and comes at a time when he has been plagued by poor approval ratings among state voters." The paper concludes, ominously for Dodd: "The meager state fundraising effort also seems antithetical to a campaign strategy to rebuild confidence among Connecticut voters that he is on their side."

Nevertheless, according to the Boston Globe,  a support no more important than the president continues to express confidence in Connecticut's junior senator: "I can't say it any clearer: I will be helping Chris Dodd because he deserves the help. Chris is going through a rough patch. He just has an extraordinary record of accomplishment, and I think the people in Connecticut will come to recognize that... He always has his constituencies at heart, and he's somebody I'm going to be relying on and working very closely with to shepherd through the types of regulatory reforms we need."