Presidential Race Maps Writing on the Wall

Democrat Jerry Brown . . .

Posted Nov 02, 2010 at 4:13 PM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

. . . wins gubernatorial race in California.

Republican Governor Jan Brewer wins reelection in Arizona.

Us Senate California: Democrat Boxer Wins

Posted Nov 02, 2010 at 3:52 PM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

Democrat Boxer wins over Republican Fiorina in the California race for US Senate.

Exit Polls in CA and WA Look Good For Democrats

Posted Nov 02, 2010 at 3:06 PM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

Exit Polls out of CA and WA suggest strong showings for Jerry Brown for CA Gov, Barbara Boxer for CA US Sen and Patty Murray for WA US Senate. A win by Boxer and Murray would make a GOP take over of the US Senate virtually impossible. Stay tuned.

CA Governor 2010: Too-Close-To-Call

Posted Sep 22, 2010 at 2:00 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

A Public Policy Polling survey in California reports that Democrat Jerry Brown now leads Republican Meg Whitman in the race for governor, 47% to 42%.

PollTrack Moves The Race From Leaning Republican to Too-Close-To-Call

CA Governor 2010: Republican Has Slight Edge

Posted Sep 14, 2010 at 1:55 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

A just released SurveyUSA poll in California reports that Republican Meg Whitman leads Democrat Jerry Brown in the race for governor by a modest margin, 47% to 40%.

 PollTrack Rates The Race Leans Republican

CA US Senate: Too Close To Call

Posted Sep 13, 2010 at 12:41 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

A new SurveyUSA poll in California reports that Republican challenger Carly Fiorina barely edges Democratic incumbent Sen. Barbara Boxer in the U.S. Senate race, 48% to 46%.

 

PollTrack Rates The Race Too-Close-To-Call

CA US Senate: Democratic Prospects May Be Improving

Posted Jul 29, 2010 at 1:15 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

A Public Policy Polling survey in California reports that incumbent Democratic U.S. Senator Barbara Boxer has improved her standing against Republican challenger Carly Fiorina. Boxer now leads by +7%, 49% to 40%, up from her +3% edge two months ago. PPP writers: "As independents have grown to hold a more unfavorable opinion of Fiorina their loyalties in the race have shifted toward Boxer. The incumbent has a 48% to 38% lead with them now, flipping the 10 point deficit she faced to Fiorina at 42% to 32% back in May."

 

PollTrack Continues To Rate The Race Too-Close-To-Call

CA Governor 2010: Republican Has Slight Edge

Posted Jul 20, 2010 at 2:11 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

A new SurveyUSA poll in California reports that Republican candidate Meg Whitman holds a +7% lead over former Democratic Governor Jerry Brown, 46% to 39%.

 

PollTrack Now Rates The Race Leaning Republican

CA US Senate: Too Close To Call

Posted Jul 16, 2010 at 1:38 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

A new SurveyUSA poll in California reports that Republican candidate Carly Fiorina holds a statistically insignificant +2% lead over incumbent Democratic Sen. Barbara Boxer (D) in the U.S. Senate race, 47% to 45%. Conversely, a new Rasmussen survey has Democrat Boxer leading Fiorina by +7% among likely voters, 49% to 42%.

 

PollTrack Rates The Race Too-Close-To-Call

CA US Senate: Too Close To Call

Posted Jul 12, 2010 at 1:18 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

According to a new Field Poll, "Democratic Senator Barbara Boxer's edge over Republican challenger Carly Fiorina has dwindled to 3 points as she seeks re-election in November, with more Californians now holding an unfavorable view of the three-term senator . . . Boxer, who once held a 30-point lead over Fiorina, the former CEO of Hewlett Packard and a political novice, is now ahead by a margin of only 47 percent to 44 percent, the Field Poll found."

One alarming finding for the incumbent Democratic Senator: "The Field Poll found that since January more Californians have become disgruntled with Boxer, with 52 percent of likely voters holding an unfavorable view of her, compared with just 41 percent who regard her favorably. Boxer's ratings have dropped to some of the lowest levels of her 18-year career in the Senate, with only 42 percent of registered voters approving of her job performance and 43 percent disapproving."


PollTrack Rates The Race Too-Close-To-Call

CA US Senate: Incumbent Democrat Holds Small Lead

Posted Jul 07, 2010 at 12:37 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

According to a new Reuters/Ipsos poll in California, incumbent Democrat Sen. Barbara Boxer holds a +4% lead over her Republican challenger Carly Fiorina, 45% to 41%.

PollTrack Rates The Race Too-Close-To-Call.

CA Governor 2010: Democrat Has Slight Edge

Posted Jul 05, 2010 at 4:45 PM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

According to new Reuters/Ipsos poll in California, the Democrat has a slight edge in the race for Governor. The survey reports that  Democrat Jerry Brown holds a +6% lead over Republican Meg Whitman, 45% to 39%.


PollTrack Rates The Race Too-Close-To-Call.

PollTrack Predictions: Today's Primary Races

Posted Jun 08, 2010 at 1:07 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

AR-U.S. Senate Democratic Primary Runoff: Sen. Blanche Lincoln vs Bill Halter. PollTrack Rates The Race Close With A Slight Edge to Halter.

CA-U.S. Senate Republican Primary: Carly Fiorina, Tom Campbell, Chuck Devore. PollTrack Rates the Race Likely Fiorina.

CA-Republican Gubernatorial Primary: PollTrack Rates The Race Likely Meg Whitman.

IA-Republican Gubernatorial Primary: Former Gov. Terry Branstad vs Bob Vander Plaats. PollTrack Rates The Race Close, With A Slight Lead For Branstad.

ME-Democratic and Republican Gubernatorial Primaries: PollTrack Rates BOTH Races Too-Close-To-Call.

NV-Republican Gubernatorial Primary: Incumbent Gov. Jim Gibbons vs. Brian Sandoval. PollTrack Rates The Race Leaning Sandoval.

NV-U.S. Senate Republican Primary: Sharron Angle, Sue Lowden and Danny Tarkanian. PollTrack Rates the Race Likely Lowden

SC-Republican Gubernatorial Primary: PollTrack Rates The Race Likely Nikki Haley.



CA US Senate: Field Poll Confirms Fiorina Ahead in Republican Primary

Posted Jun 07, 2010 at 7:40 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

In line with every other recent survey, the prestigious Field Poll in California now reports that Carly Fiorina leads Tom Campbell in the GOP primary for Senate, 37% to 22%, with Chuck DeVore in third place at 19%.It increasingly looks like incumbent Democrat Barbara Boxer's challenger will be Fiorina.

CA Governor 2010: Field Poll Reports Meg Whitman With Big Lead

Posted Jun 07, 2010 at 1:27 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

The Field Poll in California reports that Meg Whitman now holds a 2 to 1 lead over Steve Poizer in the Republican gubernatorial primary--51% to 25%--with another 18% undecided. Another survey by Capitol Weekly/Probolsky Research tracking poll shows Whitman with a similar lead over Poizner, 48% to 20%.

PollTrack rates the race likely Whitman.

 

CA Governor 2010: Whitman Leads Republican Primary; Brown Leads Whitman In The General

Posted Jun 04, 2010 at 12:15 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

A new USC/Los Angeles Timesl in California reports that Meg Whitman holds a whopping 24 point lead over Steve Poizner in the Republican primary for governor, 53% to 29%. In a general election match up, Democrat Jerry Brown leads Whitman by si points, 44% to 38%.With a large number of undecided voters up for grabs, the race now appears to be too-close-to-call.

CA US Senate: Democrat Boxer Leads Republican Fiorina

Posted Jun 03, 2010 at 1:08 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

A new USC/Los Angeles Times poll reports that in a general election match up, incumbent Democratic Sen. Barbara Boxer leads Republican Carly Fiorina, 44% to 38%. Last week, a DailyKos/Research 2000 poll reported a similar result, with Boxer leading Republican Tom Campbell, 47% to 40%, Carly Fiorina, 48% to 39%, and iChuck DeVore, 47% to 38%.The relatively high number of undecided voters suggests that the race is close, with Boxer maintaining a slight edge.

CA US Senate: Fiorina Ahead in Republican Primary

Posted Jun 02, 2010 at 1:04 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

A new USC/Los Angeles Times poll in California suggests that Carly Fiorina has retaken the momentum against Tom Campbell in the Republican Senate primary race, 38% to 23%; Chuck DeVore trails at16%.

 

CA US Senate: Fiorina Retakes Lead in Republican Primary

Posted May 26, 2010 at 12:55 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

Two new polls suggest that Carly Fiorina has retaken the lead--by a fairly wide margin--in California's Republican primary for U.S. Senate: a new Public Policy Polling survey shows Fiorina with a +20% lead over Tom Campbell, 41% to 21%, with Chuck DeVore (R) running third at 16%. These results are quite similar to a SurveyUSA poll released yesterday.

CA US Senate: Tom Cambell Leads Republican Primary Pack

Posted Apr 29, 2010 at 12:53 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

A new SurveyUSA poll in California reports that Tom Campbell now leads the Republican U.S. Senate primary race with 34%. Carly Fiorina garners 27% and Chuck DeVore is at 14%. Another 23% are undecided about a candidate to challenge incumbent Democratic Senator Barbara Boxer this fall.

CA Governor 2010: Meg Whitman Out Front in GOP Primary

Posted Apr 28, 2010 at 1:30 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

A new SurveyUSA poll in California reports that Meg Whitman trounces her opposition in the Republican gubernatorial primary: she leads Steve Poizner, 49% to 27%. Six other hypothetical primary challengers receive a combined total of 9% of primary voters; 15% of likely voters remain undecided.

 


 

CA Governor 2010: Democrat Takes Lead

Posted Apr 22, 2010 at 12:29 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

A just released Rasmussen survey in California reports that presumptive nominee Democratic Jerry Brown holds a +6% advantage over his hypothetical challenger, Republican Meg Whitman (R), 44% to 38%. A month ago, Brown and Whitman were tied at 40%.

CA Governor 2010: Another Poll Shows Meg Whitman Out Front

Posted Apr 07, 2010 at 12:23 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

A Los Angeles Times/USC poll in California reports that Republican gubernatorial candidate Meg Whitman--who continues to lead her GOP primary challenger Steve Poizner by a whopping 40 points--also bests the presumptive Democratic nominee Jerry Brownby a slight margin in a general election match up, 44% to 41%.

CA US Senate: Democratic Incumbent Appears To Lead In Another Poll

Posted Apr 06, 2010 at 1:15 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

While PollTrack continues to rate the US Senate race in California too-close-to-call, a new poll now incumbent Democrat Barbara Boxer in the lead: the Los Angeles Times/USC poll reports that in the general election, Sen. Barbara Boxer (D) holds a considerabele advantage over a generic Republican, 48% to 34%, as she seeks her fourth term.

CA US Senate: Democratic Incumbent May Be In Trouble

Posted Apr 02, 2010 at 1:12 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

A round of new polling suggests that incumbent Democratic senator Barbara Boxer may be in serious trouble in California. Her lead against hypothetical challenger Carly Fiorina has now dropped to +4.2%, 46% to 41.8%. The two newest polls, including the highly respected Field poll, sow an even smaller lead, at +1%.

PollTrack Early Read: Toss Up

California Governor Most Unpopular In Polling History

Posted Mar 26, 2010 at 2:40 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

A new Field Poll reports that California Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger has the lowest approval rating in modern history, "including Gray Davis, who was ousted by Schwarzenegger in a popular uprising." 71% of California voters surveyed disapprove of Republican Schwarzenegger's handling of the job; 23 percent approve. s Field notes: "The low ratings are shared across all demographics including party affiliation, region of the state, age and race or ethnicity."

CA Governor 2010: Field Poll Reports Meg Whitman Out Front

Posted Mar 19, 2010 at 1:16 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

Meg Whitman appears to be doing very well in her bid to become California's next governor: a new Field Poll shows the GOP front runner with a enormous lead over Steve Poizner in the Republican primary race, 63% to 14%. After weeks of being behind in a hypothetical general election match up, Whitman now leads Democrat Jerry Brown, 46% to 43%.

CA US Senate: Democratic Incumbent Has Edge

Posted Feb 10, 2010 at 3:16 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

According to PollTrack's first read of the 2010 US Senate Race in California, incumbent Democrat Barbara Boxer appears to have the edge in this Democrat-leaning state. PollTrack First Call: Leans Democrat.

CA Gov. 2010: Whitman Leads GOP Pack, But Brown Ahead In The General

Posted Jan 27, 2010 at 1:15 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

According to the latest Field Poll in California, Meg Whitman leads challenger Steve Poizner in the Republican gubernatorial primary, 45% to 17%. But Democrat Jerry Brown handily beats Whitman in a general election match up, 46% to 36%. Brown leads Poizner by an even greater margin, 48% to 31%.

CA Gov. 2010: Jerry Brown Leads The Pack

Posted Dec 18, 2009 at 1:12 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

According to a new Public Policy Institute of California survey, Democrat Jerry Brown leads all three potential Republican rivals in California's race for governor. Brown bests Republican Meg Whitman, 43% to 37%, Republican Tom Campbell, 46% to 34%, and Republican Steve Poizner, 47% to 31%. Whitman leads the Republican primary pack with 32%, followed by Campbell at 12% and Poizner at 8%.

Meg Whitman Files For 2010 Run For CA Governor

Posted Feb 10, 2009 at 3:23 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

The Sacramento Bee reports that former eBay chief executive Meg Whitman officially submitted her bid to explore a run for governor on Monday: "The move by the billionaire businesswoman sets up what's expected to be an expensive, 17-month auction between herself and Insurance Commissioner Steve Poizner in the 2010 Republican primary."

 

Former eBay Head Meg Whitman Inches Closer To Run For CA Governor

Posted Jan 11, 2009 at 7:36 PM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

According to the Associated Press, former eBay Inc. chief executive Meg Whitman has edged closer to a run for California governor. The Republican is strongly considering a run for the seat when Arnold Schwarzenegger's term is up in 2010. Whitman confirmed on Monday that she has resigned from three corporate boards. A person who is knowledgeable about Whitman's political aspirations told the AP "that the 52-year-old Silicon Valley leader is planning to run for governor in 2010, not the seat of Democratic Sen. Barbara Boxer, who will be up for re-election in two years."

California's Proposition 8: Why Pollsters Got It So Wrong

Posted Nov 11, 2008 at 1:53 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

California's Proposition 8: Why Pollsters Got It So Wrong. Virtually all statewide polls in California predicted that Proposition 8--approving a constitutional amendment that effectively bans "gay marriage"--would go down to a decisive defeat. The initiative won. Why did pollsters get it wrong. the answer is complicated, especially given the subject of the proposition: gay and lesbian rights. An analysis by the esteemed Field Poll suggests that many voters were ambivalent about the proposition, agreeing in part, disagreeing in part with its basic premises. Citing a Field Poll of California voters conducted in the days before the election, the organization notes: "A key finding in [our] final survey was that significant proportions of voters were conflicted about many of the competing arguments for and against the initiative, with many "yes" voters agreeing with a number of anti-Prop. 8 arguments and sizable proportions of "no" voters admitting to the merits of some pro-Prop. 8 claims." The analysis concludes that powerful, last minute appeals by supporters of Proposition 8 pushed some voters over the edge: "regular church-goers, and especially Catholics, were more prone than other voters to be influenced by last-minute appeals to conform to orthodox church positions when voting on a progressive social issue like same-sex marriage." For more of the analysis click here.