Presidential Race Maps Writing on the Wall

Anti-Gay Marriage Forces Win In Maine

Posted Nov 04, 2009 at 2:39 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

With nearly all precincts in, the anti-gay marriage forces have won the referendum to reject the state's recent legislative action to allow gay couples to marry:

REJECT SAME-SEX MARRIAGE LAW
Yes 291000 52.84%
No 259741 47.16%

Maine Gay Marriage Vote: Razor Close, Now With Gay Marriage Opponents Leading

Posted Nov 03, 2009 at 3:15 PM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

Razor close in Maine, with opponents of gay marriage now maintaining a slight edge:

REJECT SAME-SEX MARRIAGE LAW
Yes 155361 50.31%
No 153453 49.69

Maine Gay Marriage Vote: It Could Not Get Any Closer

Posted Nov 03, 2009 at 2:06 PM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

While the vast majority of votes have yet to be counted--only 132 precincts have now reported out of 605--the vote on Maine's gay marriage referendum could not get any closer:

REJECT SAME-SEX MARRIAGE LAW
No 56659 50.62%
Yes 55267 49.38%

Gay Marriage Vote Close In Maine

Posted Nov 03, 2009 at 1:40 PM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

The pro-Gay marriage forces ahead in Maine, but the vote on the referendum grows still closer, with just 100 of 605 precincts reporting:

REJECT SAME-SEX MARRIAGE LAW
No 37801 51.30%
Yes 35892 48.70%

Gay Marriage Ahead, But Vote Grows Closer

Posted Nov 03, 2009 at 1:21 PM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

The pro-Gay marriage forces remain ahead in Maine, but the vote on the referendum grows closer, still with just 79 of 605 precincts reporting:

 

REJECT SAME-SEX MARRIAGE LAW
No 32610 52.58%
Yes 29413 47.42%

Gay Marriage Ahead In Maine

Posted Nov 03, 2009 at 1:06 PM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

As of 9:00 PM, with 32 of 605 precincts reporting, the supporters of gay marriage are leading (no is PRO gay marriage:

 


No 14988 54.48%
Yes 12524 45.52%

Bulletin: Turnout High In Maine

Posted Nov 03, 2009 at 5:51 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

According to Ben Smith at Politico, voter turnout is high in Maine, approaching 50%, which may bode well for supporters of gay marriage: "Maine Secretary of State Matt Dunlap told me just now that turnout there is far exceeding his projections -- news that would be good news for backers of same-sex marriage. "We're seeing heavy and very steady turnout," he said, attributing the surprise to the contested vote on a "people's veto" of a same-sex marriage law driving Mainers to the polls."

Maine Gay Marriage Vote: Close. But Final Average In Favor Of Gay Marriage

Posted Nov 02, 2009 at 10:55 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

PollTrack's poll average for the so-called "gay marriage" initiative in Maine shows the race very close.

 

For keeping the law that legalized gay marriage: 49.3%

Against keeping the law that legalized gay marriage: 46.6%

Undecided: 4.3%

 

Lead: FOR gay marriage--+2.7%

Will Philip Spooner Sway Main "Gay Marriage" Vote?

Posted Nov 02, 2009 at 10:07 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

Will an 87-year old World War II veteran play a key role in tomorrow's vote in Maine's gay marriage referendum? The Los Angeles Times seems to think it's possible: "Polls have shown an extremely tight race, and supporters of same-sex marriage have been hoping to get a boost from [the] 87-year-old who has become the Internet face of opposition to Question 1. Close to 600,000 people have watched Philip Spooner on YouTube, recounting in a public hearing earlier this year the wrenching sights of blood and death he saw in action and his belief that the sacrifice was in support of a nation that extends equal rights to all. Spooner, a lifelong Republican, and his late wife raised four sons, one of whom is gay. It's unthinkable to him, he said in the tremulous voice of old age, that three of his sons will enjoy rights denied to the fourth. 'This is what we fought for in World War II,' he said, 'that idea that we can be different and still be equal.' Maine residents might be traditionalists by nature, but they also have a reputation as independent sorts who take a live-and-let-live attitude toward life. Spooner is, as gay-marriage supporters see him, the epitome of that fierce independence."

Here is Spooner's testimony:

Maine Gay Marriage Vote: Very Close

Posted Nov 02, 2009 at 1:21 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

PollTrack's poll average for the so-called "gay marriage" initiative in Maine shows the race very close.

 

For keeping the law that legalized gay marriage: 47.6%

Against keeping the law that legalized gay marriage: 48.6%

 

Lead: AGAINST gay marriage--+1.0%


Check Back Late-Afternoon, Early Evening For Final PollTrack Average

Maine Gay Marriage Vote: A Virtual Tie

Posted Oct 30, 2009 at 10:56 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

PollTrack's poll average for the so-called "gay marriage" initiative in Maine shows the race a dead heat.

 

For keeping the law that legalized gay marriage: 48%

Against keeping the law that legalized gay marriage: 47.5%

 

Lead: FOR gay marriage--+0.5%

Gay Marriage Referendum Tied In Maine

Posted Oct 21, 2009 at 3:08 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

According to a new Public Policy Polling survey, "public opinion on Question 1 in Maine, which would reject the state's law allowing same sex couples to marry, is knotted up two weeks before election day. 48% of voters in the state support it and 48% oppose it. With most voters' minds made up the election is not really about persuasion at this point but turnout. Even a small difference in the ability of supporters and opponents of the referendum to get their folks out to the polls could tip the scales with the issue this close. One determining factor could be the age distribution of the electorate. Senior citizens often dominate in low turnout elections and they're strongest in their support of rejecting the law with 54% planning to vote for Question 1 to 40% opposing it. Voters under 65 oppose the referendum by a 50-46 margin but they'll have to come out if they're going to combat the influence of the more conservative leaning older voters."

Gay Marriage Ban in 2009 Maine Vote: Nate Silver Examines The Odds?

Posted Oct 13, 2009 at 1:39 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

Nate Silver over at FiveThirtyEight.com has an interesting statistical analysis of the upcoming vote in Maine on a proposed gay marriage ban, design to turn back the clock in a state where gay marriage was recently legalized: "Back in April, I conducted an analysis of the prospects of a gay marriage ban becoming law in each of the 50 states. The analysis found that support for gay marriage bans was strongly tied to two factors: the degree of religiosity in a state, as measured by 2008 Gallup tracking surveys, and the year that the initiative was up for vote -- marriage bans have lost support at a rate of about 2 percent per year, ceteris paribus. That analysis concluded that a Maine is one of 11 states that would probably vote to reject a ban on gay marriage if a referendum were held this year. Mainers, in fact, will soon have a chance to test this proposition. In November, they will go to the polls to vote on Question 1; a yes vote would overturn a law passed earlier this year by the state's legislature that permits gays and lesbians to get married in the state." To read Silver's complete analysis, click here.