Posted Nov 04, 2009 at 10:39 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack
With nearly all precincts in, the anti-gay marriage forces have won the referendum to reject the state's recent legislative action to allow gay couples to marry:
Posted Nov 03, 2009 at 10:06 PM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack
While the vast majority of votes have yet to be counted--only 132 precincts have now reported out of 605--the vote on Maine's gay marriage referendum could not get any closer:
Posted Nov 03, 2009 at 1:51 PM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack
According to Ben Smith at Politico, voter turnout is high in Maine, approaching 50%, which may bode well for supporters of gay marriage: "Maine Secretary of State Matt Dunlap told me just now that turnout
there is far exceeding his projections -- news that would be good news
for backers of same-sex marriage. "We're seeing heavy and very steady turnout," he said, attributing
the surprise to the contested vote on a "people's veto" of a same-sex
marriage law driving Mainers to the polls."
Posted Nov 02, 2009 at 6:07 PM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack
Will an 87-year old World War
II veteran play a key role in tomorrow's vote in Maine's gay marriage referendum? The Los Angeles Times seems to think it's possible: "Polls have shown an extremely tight race, and supporters of same-sex
marriage have been hoping to get a boost from [the] 87-year-old who has become the Internet face of opposition to Question
1. Close to 600,000 people have watched Philip Spooner on YouTube, recounting in a public hearing earlier this year the
wrenching sights of blood and death he saw in action and his belief
that the sacrifice was in support of a nation that extends equal rights
to all. Spooner, a lifelong Republican, and his late wife raised four sons,
one of whom is gay. It's unthinkable to him, he said in the tremulous
voice of old age, that three of his sons will enjoy rights denied to
the fourth. 'This is what we fought for in World War II,' he said, 'that idea that we can be different and still be equal.' Maine residents might be traditionalists by nature, but they also
have a reputation as independent sorts who take a live-and-let-live
attitude toward life. Spooner is, as gay-marriage supporters see him,
the epitome of that fierce independence."
Posted Oct 21, 2009 at 11:08 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack
According to a new Public Policy Polling survey, "public opinion on Question 1 in Maine, which would reject the state's
law allowing same sex couples to marry, is knotted up two weeks before
election day. 48% of voters in the state support it and 48% oppose it. With
most voters' minds made up the election is not really about persuasion
at this point but turnout. Even a small difference in the ability of
supporters and opponents of the referendum to get their folks out to
the polls could tip the scales with the issue this close. One
determining factor could be the age distribution of the electorate.
Senior citizens often dominate in low turnout elections and they're
strongest in their support of rejecting the law with 54% planning to
vote for Question 1 to 40% opposing it. Voters under 65 oppose the
referendum by a 50-46 margin but they'll have to come out if they're
going to combat the influence of the more conservative leaning older
voters."
Posted Oct 13, 2009 at 9:39 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack
Nate Silver over at FiveThirtyEight.com has an interesting statistical analysis of the upcoming vote in Maine on a proposed gay marriage ban, design to turn back the clock in a state where gay marriage was recently legalized: "Back in April, I conducted an analysis of the prospects of a gay marriage ban becoming law in each of the 50
states. The analysis found that support for gay marriage bans was
strongly tied to two factors: the degree of religiosity in a state, as
measured by 2008 Gallup tracking surveys, and the year that the initiative was up for vote -- marriage bans have lost support at a rate of about 2 percent per year, ceteris paribus.
That analysis concluded that a Maine is one of 11 states that would
probably vote to reject a ban on gay marriage if a referendum were held
this year. Mainers, in fact, will soon have a chance to test
this proposition. In November, they will go to the polls to vote on
Question 1; a yes vote would overturn a law passed earlier this year by
the state's legislature that permits gays and lesbians to get married
in the state." To read Silver's complete analysis, click here.