Presidential Race Maps Writing on the Wall

New Yorkers Down On Paterson's Handling Of Senate Replacement

Posted Jan 30, 2009 at 1:29 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

A new Siena College poll finds that a majority of New York voters think Gov. David Paterson did just a fair or poor job filling the state's U.S. Senate vacancy. The polls reports that 33% of voters thought he did a fair job, while 29% thought it was poor. Only 27% said the process was good, and 6% rated it excellent. The poll is the first since the Kennedy leaks and Paterson's selection of Rep. Kirsten Gillibrand.

Fallout For New York Governor David Paterson?

Posted Jan 26, 2009 at 4:26 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

Has the past few months of bad pressfor New York Govenor David Paterson --culminating in the poorly handled search for Hillary Clinton's US Senate replacement--taken its toll on his reelection chances? A new Siena Research Institute poll suggests that the Democrat has his work cut out for him: Governor David Paterson's lead over Attorney General Andrew Cuomo in a potential 2010 gubernatorial primary fell from 23 points in December to just two points today. For the first time since May, Cuomo has a better favorable/unfavorable rating than Paterson: “Whether because of the prolonged Senate selection situation or on-going budget issues, voters are less inclined to support Governor Paterson for election today than they were only one month ago,” said Steven Greenberg, spokesman for the Siena New York Poll. “While the Governor's favorability rating remains strong, it is now lower than the Attorney General's, who has his highest favorability rating ever. “For the first time since he's been Governor, more people are inclined to support 'someone else' than they are to elect Paterson as Governor in 2010."

NY US Senate: Patterson Appoints Gillibrand

Posted Jan 23, 2009 at 2:11 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

Confirming PollTrack's report yesterday, New York govenor David Psterson has selected a 42-year-old congresswoman from upstate who is known for bold political moves and centrist policy positions, to fill the United States Senate seat vacated by Hillary Clinton, according to report in the New York Times this morning based on a conversation with an aide to the governor: "The governor will announce his selection at noon in Albany. An aide to Ms. Gillibrand confirmed that she had accepted the appointment. Ms. Gillibrand is largely unknown to New Yorkers statewide, but is considered an up-and-coming and forceful lawmaker in her district and has gained considerable attention from Democratic leaders in Washington."

NY US Senate: Gillibrand Emerges As Frontrunner

Posted Jan 22, 2009 at 4:17 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

According to NBC News, "Rep. Kirsten Gillibrand (D-N.Y.) has emerged as the frontrunner for Hillary Clinton’s Senate seat after Caroline Kennedy dropped out of contention last night . . . Paterson had a conversation with Gillibrand Wednesday morning, [New York governor has her on his short list of contenders for the seat]. Gillibrand, a second-term congresswoman from upstate New York, has a resume that would please the Clintons. She served as a special counsel for the Department of Housing and Urban Development (under Andrew Cuomo!) in former President Clinton’s administration, and helped raise money for Hillary Clinton’s Senate campaigns in New York. Gillibrand would be a savvy political choice, as well. She has twice won election in one of the most Republican Congressional districts in New York, handily defeating her GOP opponent with 62 percent of the vote last year. She has assiduously courted the local officials in her district, almost all of whom are Republican."

NY US Senate: Gov Paterson Has Apparently Made Decision

Posted Jan 21, 2009 at 3:03 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

According to the New York Daily News, Democratic Governor David Paterson had made a decision concerning a replacement for US Senator Hillary Clinton who will soon be confirmed as US Secretary of State: "Sources close to Paterson say they believe Caroline Keenedy is still the front-runner - despite the fact the governor has recently been talking up Rep. Kirsten Gillibrand (D-Hudson). 'I have a good idea now which direction I want to go," said Paterson. Despite the national anticipation, Paterson said he will wait a few more days before making an announcement. 'I thought that with something this serious - that when I came to a point of view - that I wouldn't react to it immediately," he said. "I thought I would see if it feels the same way [tomorrow] ... as it did, I guess toward the end of [Monday] afternoon when I think I started to come to a point of view.' Paterson's process has left many befuddled in recent days as he has seemingly swung from one position to another."

NY POST: Caroline Kennedy To Be Paterson's Pick For US Senate

Posted Jan 19, 2009 at 6:16 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

According to the New York Post, Caroline Kennedy will be Gov. David Paterson's pick to replace outgoing US Senator Hillary Clinton. The Post reports: "Despite claims that he's still undecided, Gov. Paterson is 'certain' to pick Caroline Kennedy to replace Hillary Rodham Clinton in the US Senate, several unhappy contenders for the job have told friends and associates in recent days. The contenders based their conclusion on the view that Paterson, after nearly two months of indecision, would "greatly embarrass" and "entirely humiliate" Kennedy, anger her prominent political family and even offend President-elect Barack Obama by picking someone other than President John F. Kennedy's daughter."

New Yorkers Solidly Favor Cuomo (Not Kennedy) To Replace Clinton In US Senate

Posted Jan 15, 2009 at 2:39 PM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

According to a new Marist poll, New York voters solidly support NY State attorney General Andrew Cuomo over Caroline Kennedy for the US Senate seat being vacated by Hillary Clinton. These numbers are a sharp reversal of several earlier polls. Indeed, the most recent statewide polling universally indicates a sharp erosion of support for Kennedy. Marist writes that 40% of registered voters in New York State want Gov. David Paterson to appoint Cuomo; another 25% believe Caroline Kennedy would be the better choice. A month ago, the same poll showed the two in a virtual tie, with 25% support for each.

New Yorkers Growing Wary Of Kennedy

Posted Jan 05, 2009 at 10:41 PM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

A new Public Policy Polling survey reports that Caroline Kennedy’s popularity has taken a "major hit" as the result of her
public campaign to be appointed to Hillary Clinton’s Senate seat:
"44% of the state’s voters now say they have a lesser opinion of Kennedy than they did before she started vying for the position. 33% say it’s made no difference, and 23% report now having a more favorable opinion of her. A plurality of Democrats, Republicans, and independents all say that her efforts have caused them to view her less favorably. When it comes to whether they would prefer to see Kennedy or Andrew Cuomo appointed, 58% now prefer Cuomo to 27% for Kennedy." It looks like Kennedy's less than stellar debut as a political candidate--and the attendant negative press--has severely harmed her standing the the state. Still, several published reports say that she is likely to be named to the seat by NY Governor David Paterson.

Clinton US Senate Replacement: Sources Say Paterson To Pick Kennedy

Posted Jan 02, 2009 at 4:39 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

According to the Associated Press, New York State officials with ties to Gov. David Paterson say the daughter of the late President John F. Kennedy will be the governor's choice to fill the New York Senate seat being vacated by Hillary Rodham Clinton. Still, Paterson cautions he's still looking.

Majority Of Americans Think Kennedy Is Qualified To Be US Senator

Posted Dec 31, 2008 at 12:53 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

According to a new CNN/Opinion Research poll, a majority of Americans believe that Caroline Kennedy is qualified to be a US senator. 52% percent said the daughter of President John F. Kennedy is qualified to serve; 42% said she is not qualified. According to CNN, Kennedy's numbers are "somewhat lower than for Hillary Clinton when she ran for the US Senate seat from New York. In a CNN/USA Today/Gallup survey, more than 60 percent of Americans said the former first lady was qualified." There is a gender gap in these results, as well: 57% of women believing Kennedy is qualified; only 47% of men agree, with 46% of male respondents saying Kennedy is not qualified. PollTrack wonders if these numbers will begin to shift way from Kennedy, possibly reflecting the increasingly negative reporting on her effort to replace Hillary Clinton as New York's junior senator, the growing chorus of state Democrats who question or reject her candidacy, and Kennedy's relatively poor communication with voters and her recent string of political missteps and blunders.

Hillary Clinton Replacement: New York Voters Split

Posted Dec 24, 2008 at 1:43 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

According to a new Quinnipiac University Poll, New York State voters split 40% to 41% on whether Caroline Kennedy is qualified to be a U.S. Senator, "but they expect by a 48% to 25% margin that Gov. David Paterson will name her to the Senate seat being vacated by Hillary Clinton, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today. Offered a choice, 33% of voters say Gov. Paterson should name Ms. Kennedy, while 29% say Attorney General Andrew Cuomo should get the nod. Another 4% pick Albany-area U.S. Rep. Kirsten Gillibrand, while 24% want someone else and 10% are undecided . . . Kennedy leads Cuomo 42% to 27% among New York City voters and ties Cuomo 30% to 30% among suburban voters, while Cuomo leads 31% to 27% among upstate voters. Men back Kennedy over Cuomo 32% to 27% while women back her 33% to 31%. Republicans prefer Cuomo 33% to 20% while Democrats back Kennedy 41% to 27% and independent voters back Cuomo 33% to 30%."

Nationally Voters Are Skeptical About Caroline Kennedy For US Senate

Posted Dec 22, 2008 at 1:04 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

According to a new national survey, voters are skeptical of the idea of Caroline Kennedy replacing Hillary Clinton in the US Senate: Only 37% believe Caroline Kennedy is qualified to be in the U.S. Senate and only "16% say she would be considered as Hillary Clinton’s replacement if her last name wasn’t Kennedy." 67% have a favorable view of Kennedy; 23% have an unfavorable opinion. 37% say Kennedy is not qualified to serve in the Senate, with 26% undecided.PollTrack cautions that this is a national survey. The numbers for New York State voters vary depending upon the survey.

 

Who Should Replace Clinton In US Senate: Two NY Polls Differ

Posted Dec 18, 2008 at 1:18 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

Two just released polls have contradictory results on the question of who should replace Democratic New York Junior Senator Hillary Clinton: According to a Siena College Poll, 26% say Gov. David Paterson should choose Attorney General Andrew Cuomo; 23% say Caroline  Kennedy. Limited just to Democrats, Cuomo was favored by 30 percent to 28 percent. According to Siena College, Cuomo leads in every region of the state. Kennedy leads among black and Latino voters and they tied among younger voters. A Public Policy Polling survey reports Kennedy as the top choice of Democrats by 44% to 23%. The margin was narrower upstate, where Kennedy leads 36% to 22%. She leads 45% to 25% in New York City; her strongest support in the suburbs where, with a 57% to 24% advantage over Cuomo.

Caroline Kennedy To Pursue Hillary Clinton Senate Seat

Posted Dec 15, 2008 at 6:13 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

Caroline Kennedy has decided to pursue" the U.S. Senate seat being vacated by Sen. Hillary Clinton, according to the New York Times:  "The decision came after a series of deeply personal and political conversations, in which Ms. Kennedy, who friends describe as unflashy but determined, wrestled with whether to give up what has been a lifetime of avoiding the spotlight . . . Ms. Kennedy has been making calls this morning to alert political figures to her interest... She has also hired Knickerbocker SKD, a prominent political consulting firm headed by Josh Isay, a former chief of staff to Sen. Charles Schumer, to advise her."

Who Do NY Voters Favor For Hillary Clinton's Senate Seat?

Posted Dec 10, 2008 at 5:34 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

A new Public Policy Polling survey suggests that Caroline Kennedy has the inside track with New York state voters to replace Hillary Clinton in the US Senate: "44% say she’s their top choice, with another 24% saying she’s their second choice from a list of potential candidates. The only other potential appointee to break double figures is Attorney General Andrew Cuomo, who was the top pick for 23% of respondents and the second with 35%. The other six candidates polled, including four members of Congress
and two prominent local government officials, were the favored choice with anywhere from 3 to 6% of those surveyed." But a just released Marist poll would appear to contradict these numbers, indicating a tie between Cuomo and Kennedy--25% to 25%--with 26% undecided and another 24% going to other candidates.

Caroline Kennedy To Replace Clinton: May Not Be A Good Fit

Posted Dec 09, 2008 at 2:17 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

How game is Caroline Kennedy for a nearly endless stream of campaigning across the geographically diverse and enormous expanse of New York state? If she becomes New York's next US Senator--via appointed by Democratic Govener David Paterson--she would have to do just that. She would need to win election outright in 2010 to serve the remainder of Hillary Clinton's unexpired term. Then, she'd have to run again in 2012 . . . for reelection. The notoriously private Kennedy may find the prospect of nonstop campaigning a daunting, if not impossible task. Thus a report out yesterday in the New York Post: "The odds of Gov. Paterson choosing Caroline Kennedy . . .  are no better than 20-1, a source close to the governor said yesterday. The source was responding to news that Sen. Ted Kennedy, Robert F. Kennedy Jr. and other family members have been pushing hard for Caroline to replace Clinton. 'It looks to me like [Caroline's cousin] Bobby Kennedy may be trying to push Caroline more than Caroline is pushing herself," a Paterson administration source told The Post.'" Stay tuned. 

Who Will Replace Hillary Clinton As New York's Junior Senator?

Posted Dec 03, 2008 at 2:01 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

Who will replace Democrat Hillary Clinton as New York's junior senator? As per MSNBC, the list is short but impressive: "Several names have been floated, including state Attorney General Andrew Cuomo, son of former popular Gov. Mario Cuomo, Nassau County Executive Tom Suozzi, U.S. Reps. Kirsten Gillibrand, Brian Higgins, Nydia Velazquez, Jerrold Nadler, Nita Lowey (who reportedly wants to stay in the House), Steve Israel, Gregory Meeks and Louise Slaughter, Buffalo Mayor Byron Brown (the city's first black mayor) and Bronx Borough President Adolfo Carrión Jr. Even NYC Mayor Mike Bloomberg's and Caroline Kennedy's names have been thrown out there." Interestingly, Lowey was the front runner for the seat back in 2000, but gave up her chance at the senate once Hillary Clinton threw her hat into the ring. Public opinion polls indicate that most New York voters favor Cuomo as Clinton's replacement by a substantial margin. Appointing Cuomo may actually provide current Democratic Governor David Patteron with a real political advantage: Cuomo was rumored to be ready to oppose him in 2010. If appointed, Cuomo would instead run for the remainder of Clinton's term (her seat is up in 2012) in 2010. Clinton has given no indication that she plans to resign soon, and will most probably give up her seat upon Senate confirmation as US Secretary of State. CNN also puts to rest a rumor that been swirling around the past few days: Bill Clinton "has no interest in replacing his wife in the U.S. Senate," according to his spokesman, "adding any speculation that he would be interested is 'completely false.'"