Presidential Race Maps Writing on the Wall

Houston Mayoralty 2009: City Becomes The Largest To Elect Gay Leader

Posted Dec 12, 2009 at 4:13 PM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

As per The New York Times: "Houston became the largest city in the country to elect an openly gay mayor Saturday night, as voters gave a solid victory to the [Democratic] city controller, Annise Parker. Cheers erupted at Ms. Parker’s campaign party as her opponent, Gene Locke, a former city attorney, conceded defeat after it became clear he could not overcome her lead of 53% to 47%. Throughout the campaign, Ms. Parker tried to avoid making an issue of her sexual orientation and emphasized her experience in overseeing the city’s finances. But she began her career as an advocate for gay rights in the 1980s, and it was lost on no one in Houston, a city of 2.2 million people, that her election would mark a milestone for gay men and lesbians around the country."

Atlanta Mayoral Runoff: Kasim Reed Declared Winner

Posted Dec 07, 2009 at 1:30 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

For those of you following the mayoral runoff in Atlanta--with its razor thin margin of victory on 1 December: Kasim Reed has now been certified the winner, though it appears likely that his opponent, Mary Norwood "plans to ask for a recount. But Reed said he must act as though he will be Atlanta’s next mayor. Only a few weeks remain before his new job starts, he said, and he has to begin the complex task of transition."

Bloomberg Wins In New York

Posted Nov 03, 2009 at 2:53 PM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

Several news organizations have declared Michael Bloomberg as the winner of the Mayor's race in New York City over his Democratic Challenger, Bill Thompson.

Looks Like A Bloomberg Victory In New York

Posted Nov 03, 2009 at 2:26 PM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

With Mike Bloomberg opening a modest +3% lead in New York City--and the borough of Queens, the independent mayor's strongest turf, holding the lion's share of votes still out--it looks like the incumbent mayor is headed for victory. Stay tuned.

MSNBC Reverses Projection In New York Mayor's Race

Posted Nov 03, 2009 at 1:52 PM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

NBC has reversed its projection of Independent Michael Bloomberg as the winner of the Mayor's race in New York City over his Democratic Challenger, Bill Thompson. Stay tuned.

No Exit Polls In New York City

Posted Nov 03, 2009 at 1:15 PM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

For those of you waiting for a projection in New York City's mayoral race, a note of caution: be patient. There were no exit polls in New York City, so the race will be called the old fashioned way--with raw numbers.

LIVE BLOG 7:00 PM EST TONIGHT Tuesday, 3 November

Posted Nov 02, 2009 at 3:44 PM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

PollTrack will be blogging live tonight, Election Night, tracking and interpreting results starting at 7:00 PM EST. So check in and stick with us for continuous coverage of the gubernatorial races in Virginia and, New Jersey,mayoral race in New York City, special election in NY-23, and the Maine "Gay Marriage" initiative and other races.

PollTrack FINAL Polling Average: A Summation

Posted Nov 02, 2009 at 11:16 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

Here is a brief summary of PollTrack's FINAL polling averages for five key races in tomorrow's Off-Year Election:

 

Maine Gay Marriage Referendum

Lead: FOR gay marriage--+2.7%

 

New Jersey Governor

Lead: Republican Chris Christie--+0.5%

 

Virginia Governor

Lead: Republican Bob McDonnell--+14.4%

 

NY-23 Special Election

Lead: Conservative Doug Hoffman--+8.0%


New York City Mayor

Lead: Independent Michael Bloomberg--+12.7%

 

 

No New Results For NYC Mayoralty and NY-23

Posted Nov 02, 2009 at 9:57 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

PollTrack has received no new polling for the New York City mayoral race or the special election in New York's 23rd congressional district. As a result, this mornings averages now stand as final. Please refer below for these races.

NY Mayor 2009: Final Poll Average Shows Bloomberg Ahead By Comfortable Margin

Posted Nov 02, 2009 at 1:28 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

PollTrack's average of polling in New York City for the 2009 Mayoral race:

Michael Bloomberg (I, Incumbent): 52.0%

Bill Thompson (D): 39.3%

Lead: Independent Michael Bloomberg--+12.7%

 

NY Mayor: Bloomberg By A Wide Margin

Posted Oct 30, 2009 at 6:23 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

PollTrack's average of polling in New York City for the 2009 Mayoral race:

Michael Bloomberg (I, Incumbent): 53.0%

Bill Thompson (D): 36.5%

Lead: Independent Michael Bloomberg--+16.%


 

NY Mayor 2009: Bloomberg Leads By Wide Margin

Posted Oct 28, 2009 at 12:54 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

A newly released Quinnipiac poll reports that New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg has expanded his lead over NYC Democratic comptroller Bill Thompson (D) by +18% among likely voters--53% to 35%--with 10% still undecided. These numbers are consusten with other recent polls showing Bloomberg pulling away from his challenger.

NY Mayor 2009: SurveyUSA Reports BIG Bloomberg Lead

Posted Oct 23, 2009 at 2:49 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

SurveyUSA reports that Independent incumbent Mayor Michael Bloomberg of New York bests his Democratic challenger, City Comptroller Bob Thompson by a commanding +12%, 53% to 41%. Bloomberg's PollTrack average lead is +14%--52.5% to 38.5%.

NY Mayor 2009: SurveyUSA Reports BIG Bloomberg Lead

Posted Oct 15, 2009 at 1:41 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

The latest SurveyUSA poll of New York City voters reports a huge lead for incumbent Mayor Mike Bloomberg: "Bloomberg is today at or above 50% in all five boroughs, among young and old voters, among the more educated and less educated, among the more affluent and less affluent, among whites and Hispanics, and among Democrats and Republicans." The numbers for the Mayor are impressive: the poll finds independent candidate Mike Bloomberg crushing his Democratic challenger Bill Thompson, 55% to 38%--a whopping +17% lead.

NYC Mayor 2009: Incumbent Faces Strong Challenger

Posted Oct 08, 2009 at 3:01 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

With less than a month to go in New York City's race for Mayor, popular incumbent Mike Bloomberg (I) faces a surprisingly strong challenge from his Democrat opponent, City Comptroller Bill Thompson according to a new SurveyUSA survey: "It's Bloomberg 51%, Thompson 43%. Bloomberg has outspent Thompson 16:1. Bloomberg, first elected in 2001, term-limited until the law was changed to permit him to seek a 3rd term, leads among older voters, trails among younger voters. The Democratic challenger leads in Brooklyn and The Bronx. The billionaire incumbent, who is running on the Republican and Independence Party lines, leads in Manhattan, Queens and Staten Island. Thompson leads among blacks, Bloomberg leads among whites, Hispanics and Asians. Democrats split. Republicans and Independents back Bloomberg."

With very high approval ratings, as high as 70% in recent months, Bloomberg's diminished showing relative to his popularity stems from two problems: voter resentment with his successful attempt to suspend voter approved term-limits in order to run for a third term and the increasing clout of the Working Families Party, a union-supported independent party that usually backs Democrats in New York City races and has a proven ability to increase turnout for its candidates in cycles where overall turnout is moderate to low.

NY Mayor: Bloomberg Well Ahead

Posted Sep 29, 2009 at 2:18 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

A recently released Quinnipiac poll of New York City voters reports that Democrat William Thompson achieved no bounce after his primary victory and trails Mayor Michael Bloomberg by 16 points, 52% to 36%. This gives Bloomber a lead of +16%, a whopping margin for an election that is only five weeks away.

NY Mayor: Bloomberg Still Comfortably Ahead

Posted Sep 24, 2009 at 1:24 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

In New york City's upcoming mayoralty race, independent incumbent Michael Bloomberg continues to hold a significant lead over his Democratic challenger, Bill Thompson, according to a new Marist Institute poll: "Early numbers show the incumbent, [Bloomberg], with 50% of registered voters compared with 39% for his Democratic challenger, New York City Comptroller Bill Thompson.  10% say they are unsure.  In a [July, a Marist survey], 48% reported they backed Bloomberg, 35% supported Thompson, and 17% were unsure. When looking at those all-important likely voters including those who are undecided yet leaning toward a candidate, Bloomberg has 52% to Thompson’s 43%." Significantly, Bloomberg is at or above the crucial 50% mark. One major reason for Thompson' troubles: lukewarm Democratic support, with 43% of party members supporting Bloomberg and 46% behind Thompson.

New York 2009: Bloomberg Maintains Comfortable Lead in Mayor's Race

Posted Aug 26, 2009 at 1:48 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

According to a new Quinnipiac poll, incumbent New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg [I] leads his likely Democratic challenger, Comptroller William Thompson [D], 50% to 35%. Compared to a 47% to 37% lead last month, Bloomberg has significantly expanded his advantage over Thompson. Among Republicans, Bloomberg leads 76% to 13%; he leads 54% to 28% among independents; while Democrats split 44% to 44%. The latter number, PollTrack believes, bodes very poorly for Thompson, who cannot win without significant support from fellow Democrats.

2009 Election Update: New York

Posted Aug 06, 2009 at 2:10 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

If pollsters are any guide, the 2009 race for Mayor of New York remains a bit under the radar compared to Gubernatorial races in New Jersey and Virginia. With only one poll released since June--a Quinnipiac survey issued last week--it's very difficult for PollTrack to provide credible analysis of the state of the race. As reported earlier, incumbent Independent Mayor Mike Bloomberg registered a lead as high as +18% (last May). According to the most recent poll, it's down to +10%, but PollTrack cautions that a single poll is a much less accurate gauge than a full-dress poll average.

2009 Election Update: New York

Posted Jul 29, 2009 at 2:06 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

In New York's race for Mayor, it looks like incumbent Independent Michael Bloomberg remains ahead, but by a far smaller margin. While polling is so sparse that PollTrack is not able to make a credible polling average, the Mayor has consistently led his probable challenger, NY Comptroller William C. Thompson Jr. by as much as 25 points. A new Quinnipiac poll released yesterday finds a closer race, with Bloomberg leading Thompson by ten points, 47% to 37%, a Bloomberg advantage of +10%.

New Poll: Bloomberg Way Ahead In New York Mayoralty

Posted Jun 16, 2009 at 1:47 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

A new poll out from Quinnipiac University suggests that incumbent NY mayor Michael Bloomberg will hab a very easy time come his November reelection bout against presumptive Democratic nominee and New York City Comptroller, William Thompson. According to Quinnipiac, Bloomberg, who will run as an indepdent, bests Thompson 54% to 32%. The election at this point looks like a romp for the popular mayor. He currently leads Thompson in all sectors of the political spectrum--49% to 40% among Democrats; 71% to 12% among Republicans; and 59% to 26% among independent voters.

Eight Big US Cities To Pick Mayors This Week

Posted May 05, 2009 at 2:05 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

In the next seven days, no less than eight large American cities will pick mayors. As Governing. com writes: "Big city mayors often are rising political stars, generally command powerful political machines and invariably make important policy decisions. The national media ignores them almost entirely. So, it comes as no surprise that no one has noticed that we're about to enjoy a splendid week of mayoral elections. Voters in eight of the nation's sixty-five most populous cities will elect new mayors over the next week." For an excellent rundown by Josh Goodman, click here.