Presidential Race Maps Writing on the Wall

MA + IN: Big US Senate Upset

Posted Nov 06, 2012 at 9:49 PM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

Bad news for GOP hopes of taking back the US Senate: Democrats Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts and Joe Donelley of Indiana win their races against early GOP favorites.

FINAL 2012 US SENATE RACE CHART 54 DEM 0-TCTC 46 REP

Posted Nov 05, 2012 at 5:34 PM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

2012 US SENATE RACE CHART

55 DEM       0
-TCTC        45 REP



SAFE DEMOCRATIC

CA, DE, ME, MD, MN, NJ, NY, PA, RI, WA, VT, WV

LEANING DEMOCRATIC

CT: Murphy (D) vs McMahon (R)

FL: Nelson (D) vs McGillicuddy (R)

HI: Hirono (D) vs Lingle (R)

IN: Donnelly (D) vs Murdock (R)


MI: Stebenow (D) vs Hoekstra (R)

MA: Warren (D) vs Brown (R

MO: McGaskill (D) vs Akin (R)
MT : Tester (D) vs Rehberg (R)

NM: Heinrich (D) vs Wilson (R)
OH
: Brown (D) vs Mandel (R)

VA: Kaine (D) vs Allen (R)

WI: Baldwin (D) vs Thompson (R)

LEANING REPUBLICAN

AZ: Carmona (D) vs Flake (R)

ND : Heitkamp (D) vs Berg (R)

NE: Kerry (D) vs Deb Fischer (R)

NV: Berkley (D) vs Heller (R)


SAFE REPUBLICAN

MS,  TN, TX, UT, WY

2012 US SENATE RACE CHART 54 DEM 1-TCTC 45 REP

Posted Nov 05, 2012 at 11:16 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

2012 US SENATE RACE CHART

54 DEM       1
-TCTC        45 REP



SAFE DEMOCRATIC

CA, DE, ME, MD, MN, NJ, NY, PA, RI, WA, VT, WV

LEANING DEMOCRATIC

CT: Murphy (D) vs McMahon (R)

FL: Nelson (D) vs McGillicuddy (R)

HI: Hirono (D) vs Lingle (R)

IN: Donnelly (D) vs Murdock (R)


MI: Stebenow (D) vs Hoekstra (R)

MA: Warren (D) vs Brown (R

MO: McGaskill (D) vs Akin (R)

NM: Heinrich (D) vs Wilson (R)
OH
: Brown (D) vs Mandel (R)

VA: Kaine (D) vs Allen (R)

WI: Baldwin (D) vs Thompson (R)

 

TOO-CLOSE-TO-CALL


MT : Tester (D) vs Rehberg (R)

 

LEANING REPUBLICAN

AZ: Carmona (D) vs Flake (R)

ND : Heitkamp (D) vs Berg (R)

NE: Kerry (D) vs Deb Fischer (R)

NV: Berkley (D) vs Heller (R)


SAFE REPUBLICAN

MS,  TN, TX, UT, WY

2012 US SENATE RACE CHART 53 DEM 2-TCTC 45 REP

Posted Nov 04, 2012 at 1:04 PM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

2012 US SENATE RACE CHART

53 DEM       2
-TCTC        45 REP



SAFE DEMOCRATIC

CA, DE, ME, MD, MN, NJ, NY, PA, RI, WA, VT, WV

LEANING DEMOCRATIC

CT: Murphy (D) vs McMahon (R)

FL: Nelson (D) vs McGillicuddy (R)

HI: Hirono (D) vs Lingle (R)

IN: Donnelly (D) vs Murdock (R)

MI: Stebenow (D) vs Hoekstra (R)

MA: Warren (D) vs Brown (R

MO: McGaskill (D) vs Akin (R)

NM: Heinrich (D) vs Wilson (R)
OH
: Brown (D) vs Mandel (R)

WI: Baldwin (D) vs Thompson (R)

 

TOO-CLOSE-TO-CALL

 



MT : Tester (D) vs Rehberg (R)

VA: Kaine (D) vs Allen (R)

 

LEANING REPUBLICAN

AZ: Carmona (D) vs Flake (R)

ND : Heitkamp (D) vs Berg (R)

NE: Kerry (D) vs Deb Fischer (R)

NV: Berkley (D) vs Heller (R)




SAFE REPUBLICAN

MS,  TN, TX, UT, WY

2012 US SENATE RACE CHART 52 DEM 4-TCTC 44 REP

Posted Oct 27, 2012 at 10:49 PM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

2012 US SENATE RACE CHART

52 DEM       4
-TCTC        44 REP

SAFE DEMOCRATIC

CA, DE, ME, MD, MN, NJ, NY, PA, RI, WA, VT, WV

LEANING DEMOCRATIC

CT: Murphy (D) vs McMahon (R)

FL: Nelson (D) vs McGillicuddy (R)

HI: Hirono (D) vs Lingle (R)
MI: Stebenow (D) vs Hoekstra (R)

MA: Warren (D) vs Brown (R

MO: McGaskill (D) vs Akin (R)

NM: Heinrich (D) vs Wilson (R)
OH
: Brown (D) vs Mandel (R)

WI: Baldwin (D) vs Thompson (R)

 

TOO-CLOSE-TO-CALL

 

IN: Donnelly (D) vs Murdock (R)

MT : Tester (D) vs Rehberg (R)
NE: Kerry (D) vs Deb Fischer (R)

VA: Kaine (D) vs Allen (R)

 

LEANING REPUBLICAN

AZ: Carmona (D) vs Flake (R)

ND : Heitkamp (D) vs Berg (R)

NV: Berkley (D) vs Heller (R)




SAFE REPUBLICAN

MS,  TN, TX, UT, WY

2012 US SENATE RACE CHART 52 DEM 3-TCTC 45 REP

Posted Oct 24, 2012 at 5:49 PM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

2012 US SENATE RACE CHART

52 DEM       3
-TCTC        45 REP

SAFE DEMOCRATIC

CA, DE, ME, MD, MN, NJ, NY, PA, RI, WA, VT, WV

LEANING DEMOCRATIC

CT: Murphy (D) vs McMahon (R)

FL: Nelson (D) vs McGillicuddy (R)

HI: Hirono (D) vs Lingle (R)
MI: Stebenow (D) vs Hoekstra (R)

MA: Warren (D) vs Brown (R

MO: McGaskill (D) vs Akin (R)

NM: Heinrich (D) vs Wilson (R)
OH
: Brown (D) vs Mandel (R)

WI: Baldwin (D) vs Thompson (R)

 

TOO-CLOSE-TO-CALL

 

IN: Donnelly (D) vs Murdock (R)

MT : Tester (D) vs Rehberg (R)

VA: Kaine (D) vs Allen (R)

 

LEANING REPUBLICAN

AZ: Carmona (D) vs Flake (R)

ND : Heitkamp (D) vs Berg (R)

NV: Berkley (D) vs Heller (R)




SAFE REPUBLICAN

MS, NE, TN, TX, UT, WY

 

2012 US SENATE RACE CHART 51 DEM 4-TCTC 45 REP

Posted Oct 23, 2012 at 2:08 PM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

2012 US SENATE RACE CHART

51 DEM       4-TCTC        45 REP

SAFE DEMOCRATIC

CA, DE, ME, MD, MN, NJ, NY, PA, RI, WA, VT, WV

LEANING DEMOCRATIC


FL: Nelson (D) vs McGillicuddy (R)

HI: Hirono (D) vs Lingle (R)
MI: Stebenow (D) vs Hoekstra (R)

MA: Warren (D) vs Brown (R

MO: McGaskill (D) vs Akin (R)

NM: Heinrich (D) vs Wilson (R)
OH
: Brown (D) vs Mandel (R)

WI: Baldwin (D) vs Thompson (R)

 

TOO-CLOSE-TO-CALL

 

IN: Donnelly (D) vs Murdock (R)

CT: Murphy (D) vs McMahon (R)

NV: Berkley (D) vs Heller (R)

VA: Kaine (D) vs Allen (R)

 

LEANING REPUBLICAN

AZ: Carmona (D) vs Flake (R)

MT : Tester (D) vs Rehberg (R)

ND : Heitkamp (D) vs Berg (R)




SAFE REPUBLICAN

MS, NE, TN, TX, UT, WY

2012 US SENATE RACE CHART 51 DEM 5-TCTC 44 REP

Posted Oct 19, 2012 at 6:59 PM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

2012 US SENATE RACE CHART

51 DEM       5-TCTC        44 REP

SAFE DEMOCRATIC

CA, DE, ME, MD, MN, NJ, NY, PA, RI, WA, VT, WV

LEANING DEMOCRATIC


FL: Nelson (D) vs McGillicuddy (R)

HI: Hirono (D) vs Lingle (R)
MI: Stebenow (D) vs Hoekstra (R)

MA: Warren (D) vs Brown (R

MO: McGaskill (D) vs Akin (R)

NM: Heinrich (D) vs Wilson (R)
OH
: Brown (D) vs Mandel (R)

WI: Baldwin (D) vs Thompson (R)

 

TOO-CLOSE-TO-CALL

 

IN: Donnelly (D) vs Murdock (R)

ND : Heitkamp (D) vs Berg (R)

CT: Murphy (D) vs McMahon (R)

NV: Berkley (D) vs Heller (R)

VA: Kaine (D) vs Allen (R)

 

LEANING REPUBLICAN

AZ: Carmona (D) vs Flake (R)

MT : Tester (D) vs Rehberg (R)



SAFE REPUBLICAN

MS, NE, TN, TX, UT, WY

2012 US SENATE RACE CHART 51 DEM 6-TCTC 43 REP

Posted Oct 15, 2012 at 7:22 PM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

2012 US SENATE RACE CHART

51 DEM       6-TCTC        43 REP

SAFE DEMOCRATIC

CA, DE, ME, MD, MN, NJ, NY, PA, RI, WA, VT, WV

LEANING DEMOCRATIC


FL: Nelson (D) vs McGillicuddy (R)

HI: Hirono (D) vs Lingle (R)
MI: Stebenow (D) vs Hoekstra (R)

MA: Warren (D) vs Brown (R

MO: McGaskill (D) vs Akin (R)

NM: Heinrich (D) vs Wilson (R)
OH
: Brown (D) vs Mandel (R)

WI: Baldwin (D) vs Thompson (R)

TOO-CLOSE-TO-CALL

 

IN: Donnelly (D) vs Murdock (R)
MT
: Tester (D) vs Rehberg (R)
ND
: Heitkamp (D) vs Berg (R)

CT: Murphy (D) vs McMahon (R)

NV: Berkley (D) vs Heller (R)

VA: Kaine (D) vs Allen (R)

 

LEANING REPUBLICAN

AZ: Carmona (D) vs Flake (R)


SAFE REPUBLICAN

MS, NE, TN, TX, UT, WY

2012 US SENATE RACE CHART 52 DEM 6-TCTC 44 REP

Posted Oct 03, 2012 at 7:18 PM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

2012 US SENATE RACE CHART

52 DEM       4-TCTC        44 REP

SAFE DEMOCRATIC

CA, DE, ME, MD, MN, NJ, NY, PA, RI, WA, VT, WV

LEANING DEMOCRATIC

CT: Murphy (D) vs McMahon (R)

FL: Nelson (D) vs McGillicuddy (R)

HI: Hirono (D) vs Lingle (R)
MI: Stebenow (D) vs Hoekstra (R)

MA: Warren (D) vs Brown (R

MO: McGaskill (D) vs Akin (R)

NM: Heinrich (D) vs Wilson (R)
OH
: Brown (D) vs Mandel (R)

VA: Kaine (D) vs Allen(R)

WI: Baldwin (D) vs Thompson (R)

TOO-CLOSE-TO-CALL

IN: Donnelly (D) vs Murdock (R)
MT: Tester (D) vs Rehberg (R)
ND: Heitkamp (D) vs Berg (R)

NV: Berkley (D) vs Heller (R)

LEANING REPUBLICAN

AZ: Carmona (D) vs Flake (R)
NV: Berkley (D) vs Heller (R)


SAFE REPUBLICAN

MS, NE, TN, TX, UT, WY

2012 US SENATE RACE CHART 51 DEM 5-TCTC 44 REP

Posted Oct 02, 2012 at 3:43 PM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

2012 US SENATE RACE CHART

51 DEM       5-TCTC        44 REP

SAFE DEMOCRATIC

CA, DE, ME, MD, MN, NJ, NY, PA, RI, WA, VT, WV

LEANING DEMOCRATIC

CT: Murphy (D) vs McMahon (R)

FL: Nelson (D) vs McGillicuddy (R)

HI: Hirono (D) vs Lingle (R)
MI: Stebenow (D) vs Hoekstra (R)

MA: Warren (D) vs Brown (R

NM: Heinrich (D) vs Wilson (R)

OH
: Brown (D) vs Mandel (R)

VA: Kaine (D) vs Allen(R)

WI: Baldwin (D) vs Thompson (R)


TOO-CLOSE-TO-CALL


IN: Donnelly (D) vs Murdock (R)

MO: McGaskill (D) vs Akin (R)
MT: Tester (D) vs Rehberg (R)
ND: Heitkamp (D) vs Berg (R)

NV: Berkley (D) vs Heller (R)

LEANING REPUBLICAN

AZ: Carmona (D) vs Flake (R)
NV: Berkley (D) vs Heller (R)


SAFE REPUBLICAN

MS, NE, TN, TX, UT, WY

2012 US SENATE RACE CHART: 52 DEM 3-TCTC 45 REP

Posted Sep 21, 2012 at 7:07 PM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

2012 US SENATE RACE CHART

52 DEM       3-TCTC        45 REP

SAFE DEMOCRATIC

CA, DE, ME, MD, MN, NJ, NY, PA, RI, WA, VT, WV

LEANING DEMOCRATIC

CT: Murphy (D) vs McMahon (R)

FL: Nelson (D) vs McGillicuddy (R)

HI: Hirono (D) vs Lingle (R)
MI: Stebenow (D) vs Hoekstra (R)

MA: Warren (D) vs Brown (R
MO: McGaskill (D) vs Akin (R)
NM: Heinrich (D) vs Wilson (R)

OH
: Brown (D) vs Mandel (R)

VA: Kaine (D) vs Allen(R)

WI: Baldwin (D) vs Thompson (R)


TOO-CLOSE-TO-CALL


IN: Donnelly (D) vs Murdock (R)
MT: Tester (D) vs Rehberg (R)
ND: Heitkamp (D) vs Berg (R)

LEANING REPUBLICAN

AZ: Carmona (D) vs Flake (R)
NV: Berkley (D) vs Heller (R)


SAFE REPUBLICAN

MS, NE, TN, TX, UT, WY

2012 US SENATE RACE CHART: 51 DEM 3-TCTC 46 REP

Posted Sep 19, 2012 at 9:21 PM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

2012 US SENATE RACE CHART

51 DEM       3-TCTC        46 REP

SAFE DEMOCRATIC

CA, DE, ME, MD, MN, NJ, NY, PA, RI, WA, VT, WV

LEANING DEMOCRATIC

CT: Murphy (D) vs McMahon (R)

FL: Nelson (D) vs McGillicuddy (R)

HI: Hirono (D) vs Lingle (R)
MI: Stebenow (D) vs Hoekstra (R)

MA: Warren (D) vs Brown (R
MO: McGaskill (D) vs Akin (R)
NM: Heinrich (D) vs Wilson (R)

OH
: Brown (D) vs Mandel (R)

VA: Kaine (D) vs Allen(R)


TOO-CLOSE-TO-CALL


IN: Donnelly (D) vs Murdock (R)
MT: Tester (D) vs Rehberg (R)
ND: Heitkamp (D) vs Berg (R)

LEANING REPUBLICAN

AZ: Carmona (D) vs Flake (R)
NV: Berkley (D) vs Heller (R)
WI: Baldwin (D) vs Thompson (R)

SAFE REPUBLICAN

MS, NE, TN, TX, UT, WY

2012 US SENATE RACE CHART 50 DEM 4-TCTC 46 REP

Posted Sep 17, 2012 at 6:08 PM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

2012 US SENATE RACE CHART

50 DEM       4-TCTC        46 REP

SAFE DEMOCRATIC

CA, DE, ME, MD, MN, NJ, NY, PA, RI, WA, VT, WV

LEANING DEMOCRATIC

CT: Murphy (D) vs McMahon (R)

FL: Nelson (D) vs McGillicuddy (R) HI: Hirono (D) vs Lingle (R)
MI: Stebenow (D) vs Hoekstra (R)

MA: Warren (D) vs Brown (R)
MO: McGaskill (D) vs Akin (R)
NM: Heinrich (D) vs Wilson (R)

OH
: Brown (D) vs Mandel (R)


TOO-CLOSE-TO-CALL


IN: Donnelly (D) vs Murdock (R)
MT: Tester (D) vs Rehberg (R)
ND: Heitkamp (D) vs Berg (R)
VA: Kaine (D) vs Allen (R)


LEANING REPUBLICAN

AZ: Carmona (D) vs Flake (R)
NV: Berkley (D) vs Heller (R)
WI: Baldwin (D) vs Thompson (R)

SAFE REPUBLICAN

MS, NE, TN, TX, UT, WY

US SENATE RACE CHART: 49 DEM 5-TCTC 46 REP

Posted Sep 12, 2012 at 12:54 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

2012 US SENATE RACE CHART

49 DEM       5-TCTC        46 REP

SAFE DEMOCRATIC

CA, DE, ME, MD, MN, NJ, NY, PA, RI, WA, VT, WV

LEANING DEMOCRATIC

CT: Murphy (D) vs McMahon (R)

FL: Nelson (D) vs McGillicuddy (R)
HI: Hirono (D) vs Lingle (R)
MI: Stebenow (D) vs Hoekstra (R)
MO: McGaskill (D) vs Akin (R)
NM: Heinrich (D) vs Wilson (R)

OH
: Brown (D) vs Mandel (R)


TOO-CLOSE-TO-CALL


IN: Donnelly (D) vs Murdock (R)
MA: Brown (R) vs Warren (D)
MT: Tester (D) vs Rehberg (R)
ND: Heitkamp (D) vs Berg (R)
VA: Kaine (D) vs Allen (R)


LEANING REPUBLICAN

AZ: Carmona (D) vs Flake (R)
NV: Berkley (D) vs Heller (R)
WI: Baldwin (D) vs Thompson (R)

SAFE REPUBLICAN

MS, NE, TN, TX, UT, WY

US SENATE RACE CHART: 48 DEM 6-TCTC 46 REP

Posted Sep 07, 2012 at 6:42 PM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

2012 US SENATE RACE CHART

48 DEM       6-TCTC        46 REP

SAFE DEMOCRATIC

CA, DE, ME, MD, MN, NJ, NY, PA, RI, WA, VT, WV

LEANING DEMOCRATIC

CT: Murphy (D) vs McMahon (R)

FL: Nelson (D) vs McGillicuddy (R)
HI: Hirono (D) vs Lingle (R)
MI: Stebenow (D) vs Hoekstra (R)
MO: McGaskill (D) vs Akin (R)
NM: Heinrich (D) vs Wilson (R)


TOO-CLOSE-TO-CALL


IN: Donnelly (D) vs Murdock (R)
MA: Brown (R) vs Warren (D)
MT: Tester (D) vs Rehberg (R)
ND: Heitkamp (D) vs Berg (R)
OH: Brown (D) vs Mandel (R)
VA: Kaine (D) vs Allen (R)


LEANING REPUBLICAN

AZ: Carmona (D) vs Flake (R)
NV: Berkley (D) vs Heller (R)
WI: Baldwin (D) vs Thompson (R)

SAFE REPUBLICAN

MS, NE, TN, TX, UT, WY

US SENATE RACE CHART Now Up!

Posted Aug 31, 2012 at 12:09 PM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

2012 US SENATE RACE CHART

47 DEM       7-TCTC        46 REP


SAFE DEMOCRATIC

CA, DE, ME, MD, MN, NJ, NY, PA, RI, WA,
VT, WV


LEANING DEMOCRATIC

FL: Nelson (D) vs McGillicuddy (R)
HI: Hirono (D) vs Lingle (R)
MI: Stebenow (D) vs Hoekstra (R)
MO: McGaskill (D) vs Akin (R)
NM: Heinrich (D) vs Wilson (R)


TOO-CLOSE-TO-CALL

CT. Murphy (D) vs McMahon (R)
IN: Donnelly (D) vs Murdock (R)
MA: Brown (R) vs Warren (D)
MT: Tester (D) vs Rehberg (R)
ND: Heitkamp (D) vs Berg (R)
OH: Brown (D) vs Mandel (R)
VA: Kaine (D) vs Allen (R)


LEANING REPUBLICAN

AZ: Carmona (D) vs Flake (R)
NV: Berkley (D) vs Heller (R)
WI: Baldwin (D) vs Thompson (R)

SAFE REPUBLICAN

MS, NE, TN, TX, UT, WY

US Senate Race Chart Coming Soon

Posted Aug 17, 2012 at 9:39 AM
Maurice Berger

PollTrack's US Senate Race Chart will be coming soon. With PollTrack's outstanding track record on predicting the outcome of US Senate races--and the potential of a very close overall race for control of the Senate--this year's chart should be very exciting.

Democrats Maintain Control of US Senate

Posted Nov 02, 2010 at 4:33 PM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

With Harry Reid projected to win reelection to the US Senate in Nevada, PollTrack projects that the Democrats will maintain control of the US Senate.

FINAL U. S. SENATE RACE CHART 2010: DEM-50 TCTC-1 REP-49

Posted Nov 01, 2010 at 11:10 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

U. S. SENATE RACE CHART 2010 Predicted Balance of Power: DEM-50 TCTC-1 REP-49

*Alaska: Too-Close-To-Call (From Leaning Independent) (Since both of the two leading candidates has promised to caucus with the GOP, this race will continue to count in the GOP column.) IND +1.5%

California: Leaning Democrat DEM +4.3%
 
Colorado: Leaning Republican REP +3.0%

ConnecticutLikely Democratic DEM +10.7%
 
Florida : Likely Republican REP +11.5%
 
Illinois: Leaning Republican REP +3.3%
 
Kentucky: Leaning Republican REP +8.3%
 
Missouri: Likely Republican REP +8.0%
 
Nevada: Leaning Republican REP +4.0%
 
New Hampshire: Leaning Republican REP +7.0%
 
Pennsylvania: Leaning Republican REP +4.5%
 
Washington: Too-Close-To-Call  DEM +0.3%

West Virginia: Leaning Democrat DEM +4.5%

Wisconsin: Leaning Republican REP +8.0%
 
 
Likely/Safe DEM: DE, HI, MD, NY-1, NY-2, OR, VT
 

Likely/Safe GOP: AR, IN, LA, AL, AZ, GA, IA, ID, KS, ND, OH, OK, SC, SD, UT

U. S. SENATE RACE CHART 2010: DEM-50 TCTC-1 REP-49

Posted Nov 01, 2010 at 2:17 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

U. S. SENATE RACE CHART 2010 Predicted Balance of Power: DEM-50 TCTC-1 REP-49

Alaska: Leaning Independent (Since both of the two leading candidates has promised to caucus with the GOP, this race will continue to count in the GOP column.) IND +1.5%

California: Leaning Democrat DEM +4.3%
 
Colorado: Leaning Republican REP +3.0%

ConnecticutLikely Democratic DEM +10.7%
 
Florida : Likely Republican REP +11.5%
 
*Illinois: Leaning Republican (From Too-Close-To-Call) REP +3.3%
 
Kentucky: Leaning Republican REP +8.3%
 
Missouri: Likely Republican REP +8.0%
 
Nevada: Leaning Republican REP +4.0%
 
New Hampshire: Leaning Republican REP +7.0%
 
Pennsylvania: Leaning Republican REP +3.8%
 
Washington: Too-Close-To-Call  DEM +0.3%

West Virginia: Leaning Democrat DEM +4.5%

Wisconsin: Leaning Republican REP +8.0%
 
 
Likely/Safe DEM: DE, HI, MD, NY-1, NY-2, OR, VT
 

Likely/Safe GOP: AR, IN, LA, AL, AZ, GA, IA, ID, KS, ND, OH, OK, SC, SD, UT

U. S. SENATE RACE CHART 2010: DEM-50 TCTC-2 REP-48

Posted Oct 31, 2010 at 9:35 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

U. S. SENATE RACE CHART 2010 Predicted Balance of Power: DEM-50 TCTC-2 REP-48

Alaska: Leaning Independent (Since both of the two leading candidates has promised to caucus with the GOP, this race will continue to count in the GOP column.) IND +5.5%

California: Leaning Democrat DEM +4.3%
 
*Colorado: Leaning Republican (From Too-Close-To-Call REP +3.0%

ConnecticutLikely Democratic DEM +10.7%
 
Florida : Likely Republican REP +11.5%
 
Illinois: Too-Close-To-Call REP REP +3.5%
 
Kentucky: Leaning Republican REP +8.3%
 
Missouri: Likely Republican REP +8.0%
 
*Nevada: Leaning Republican (From Too-Close-To-Call) REP +4.0%
 
New Hampshire: Leaning Republican REP +7.0%
 
*Pennsylvania: Leaning Republican (From Too-Close-To-Call) REP +3.8%
 
Washington: Too-Close-To-Call  TIE

*West Virginia: Leaning Democrat Too-Close-To-Call DEM +4.5%

Wisconsin: Leaning Republican REP +8.0%
 
 
Likely/Safe DEM: DE, HI, MD, NY-1, NY-2, OR, VT
 

Likely/Safe GOP: AR, IN, LA, AL, AZ, GA, IA, ID, KS, ND, OH, OK, SC, SD, UT

U. S. SENATE RACE CHART 2010: DEM-49 TCTC-6 REP-45

Posted Oct 30, 2010 at 3:14 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

U. S. SENATE RACE CHART 2010 Predicted Balance of Power: DEM-49 TCTC-6 REP-45

Alaska: Leaning Independent (Since both of the two leading candidates has promised to caucus with the GOP, this race will continue to count in the GOP column.) IND +5.5%

California: Leaning Democrat DEM +4.0%
 
Colorado: Too-Close-To-Call REP +2.0%

ConnecticutLikely Democratic DEM +14.7%
 
Florida : Likely Republican REP +11.5%
 
Illinois: Too-Close-To-Call REP +3.0%
 
Kentucky: Leaning Republican REP +8.3%
 
Missouri: Likely Republican REP +8.0%
 
Nevada: Too-Close-To-Call DEM +1.3%
 
New Hampshire: Leaning Republican REP +7.0%
 
Pennsylvania: Too-Close-To-Call REP +2.0%
 
Washington: Too-Close-To-Call DEM +2.0%

*West Virginia: Too-Close-To-Call (From Leaning Democrat) DEM +4.5%

Wisconsin: Leaning Republican REP +8.0%
 
 
Likely/Safe DEM: DE, HI, MD, NY-1, NY-2, OR, VT
 

Likely/Safe GOP: AR, IN, LA, AL, AZ, GA, IA, ID, KS, ND, OH, OK, SC, SD, UT

U. S. SENATE RACE CHART 2010: DEM-50 TCTC-5 REP-45

Posted Oct 28, 2010 at 4:28 PM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

U. S. SENATE RACE CHART 2010 Predicted Balance of Power: DEM-50 TCTC-5 REP-45

*Alaska: Leaning Independent (From Too-Close-To-Call) (Since both of the two leading candidates has promised to caucus with the GOP, this race will continue to count in the GOP column.) IND +5.5%

California: Leaning Democrat DEM +4.0%
 
Colorado: Too-Close-To-Call REP +2.0%

ConnecticutLikely Democratic DEM +14.7%
 
Florida : Likely Republican REP +11.5%
 
Illinois: Too-Close-To-Call REP +3.0%
 
Kentucky: Leaning Republican REP +8.3%
 
Missouri: Likely Republican REP +8.0%
 
Nevada: Too-Close-To-Call DEM +1.3%
 
New Hampshire: Leaning Republican REP +7.0%
 
Pennsylvania: Too-Close-To-Call REP +2.0%
 
Washington: Too-Close-To-Call DEM +2.0%

West Virginia: Leaning Democrat DEM +4.8%

Wisconsin: Leaning Republican REP +8.0%
 
 
Likely/Safe DEM: DE, HI, MD, NY-1, NY-2, OR, VT
 

Likely/Safe GOP: AR, IN, LA, AL, AZ, GA, IA, ID, KS, ND, OH, OK, SC, SD, UT

U. S. SENATE RACE CHART 2010: DEM-50 TCTC-5 REP-45

Posted Oct 27, 2010 at 4:10 PM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

U. S. SENATE RACE CHART 2010 Predicted Balance of Power: DEM-50 TCTC-5 REP-45

Alaska: Too-Close-To-Call  IND-+4.5% (Since both of the two leading candidates has promised to caucus with the GOP, this race will now count in the GOP column.)

California: Leaning Democrat DEM +4.0%
 
Colorado: Too-Close-To-Call REP +2.0%

ConnecticutLikely Democratic DEM +14.7%
 
Florida : Likely Republican REP +11.5%
 
Illinois: Too-Close-To-Call REP +3.0%
 
Kentucky: Leaning Republican REP +8.3%
 
Missouri: Likely Republican REP +8.0%
 
Nevada: Too-Close-To-Call DEM +1.3%
 
New Hampshire: Leaning Republican REP +7.0%
 
Pennsylvania: Too-Close-To-Call REP +2.0%
 
Washington: Too-Close-To-Call DEM +2.0%

*West Virginia: Leaning Democrat (from Too-Close-To-Call) DEM +4.8%

Wisconsin: Leaning Republican REP +8.0%
 
 
Likely/Safe DEM: DE, HI, MD, NY-1, NY-2, OR, VT
 

Likely/Safe GOP: AR, IN, LA, AL, AZ, GA, IA, ID, KS, ND, OH, OK, SC, SD, UT

U. S. SENATE RACE CHART 2010: DEM-49 TCTC-6 REP-45

Posted Oct 27, 2010 at 1:54 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

U. S. SENATE RACE CHART 2010 Predicted Balance of Power: DEM-49 TCTC-6 REP-45

Alaska: Too-Close-To-Call  IND-+4.5% (Since both of the two leading candidates has promised to caucus with the GOP, this race will now count in the GOP column.)

California: Leaning Democrat DEM +4.0%
 
Colorado: Too-Close-To-Call REP +2.0%

*ConnecticutLikely Democratic (from Leaning Democrat) DEM +14.7%
 
Florida : Likely Republican REP +11.5%
 
Illinois: Too-Close-To-Call REP +3.0%
 
*Kentucky: Leaning Republican (from Too-Close-To-Call) REP +8.3%
 
Missouri: Likely Republican REP +8.0%
 
Nevada: Too-Close-To-Call DEM +1.3%
 
New Hampshire: Leaning Republican REP +7.0%
 
Pennsylvania: Too-Close-To-Call REP +2.0%
 
Washington: Too-Close-To-Call DEM +2.0%

West Virginia: Too-Close-To-Call DEM +2.0%

Wisconsin : Leaning Republican REP +8.0%
 
 
Likely/Safe DEM: DE, HI, MD, NY-1, NY-2, OR, VT
 

Likely/Safe GOP: AR, IN, LA, AL, AZ, GA, IA, ID, KS, ND, OH, OK, SC, SD, UT

U. S. SENATE RACE CHART 2010: DEM-49 TCTC-7 REP-44

Posted Oct 26, 2010 at 5:14 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

U. S. SENATE RACE CHART 2010 Predicted Balance of Power: DEM-49 TCTC-7 REP-44

Alaska: Too-Close-To-Call  IND-+4.5% (Since both of the two leading candidates has promised to caucus with the GOP, this race will now count in the GOP column.)

*California: Leaning Democrat (From Too-Close-To-Call) DEM +4.0%
 
Colorado: Too-Close-To-Call REP +2.0%

ConnecticutLeaning Democrat DEM +6.7%
 
Florida : Likely Republican REP +11.5%
 
Illinois: Too-Close-To-Call REP +3.0%
 
Kentucky: Too-Close-To-Call REP +4.0%
 
Missouri: Likely Republican REP +8.0%
 
Nevada: Too-Close-To-Call DEM +1.3%
 
New Hampshire: Leaning Republican REP +7.0%
 
Pennsylvania: Too-Close-To-Call REP +2.0%
 
Washington: Too-Close-To-Call DEM +2.0%

West Virginia: Too-Close-To-Call DEM +2.0%

Wisconsin : Leaning Republican REP +8.0%
 
 
Likely/Safe DEM: DE, HI, MD, NY-1, NY-2, OR, VT
 

Likely/Safe GOP: AR, IN, LA, AL, AZ, GA, IA, ID, KS, ND, OH, OK, SC, SD, UT

Latest Polls For U.S. Senate

Posted Oct 26, 2010 at 5:14 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

Here are the latest polls for competitive U.S. Senate Races:

CALIFORNIA: Los Angeles Times/USC Democratic U.S. Sen. Barbara Boxer leads republican Carly Fiorina, 50% to 42%.

COLORADO: SurveyUSA Democratic U.S. Sen. Michael Bennet is tied with Republican Ken Buck at 47% each;  Public Policy Polling Bennet tied with Buck at 47%.

FLORIDA: St. Petersburg Times/Miami Herald Republican Marco Rubio leads Independent candidate, Gov. Charlie Crist, 41% to 26%, with Democratic Rep. Kendrick Meek at 20%.

ILLINOIS: Chicago Tribune/WGN GOP Rep. Mark Kirk leads Democrat Alexi Giannoulias, 44% to 41%

MISSOURI: Mason-Dixon Republican Roy Blunt leads Democrat Robin Carnahan, 49% to 40%.

PENNSYLVANIA: Morning Call/Muhlenberg College Republican Pat Toomey leads Democratic Rep. Joe Sestak, 47% to 42%.

WEST VIRGINIA: Public Policy Polling Democratic Gov. Joe Manchin leads Republican John Raese, 50% to 44%.

U. S. SENATE RACE CHART 2010: DEM-48 TCTC-9 REP-43

Posted Oct 21, 2010 at 1:12 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

U. S. SENATE RACE CHART 2010

 Predicted Balance of Power: DEM-48 TCTC-9 REP-43


Alaska: Too-Close-To-Call  IND-+4.5%

California: Too-Close-To-Call DEM +3.7%
 
Colorado: Too-Close-To-Call REP +2.0%

ConnecticutLeaning Democrat DEM +6.7%
 
Florida : Likely Republican REP +11.5%
 
Illinois: Too-Close-To-Call REP +3.0%
 
Kentucky: Too-Close-To-Call REP +4.0%
 
Missouri: Likely Republican REP +8.0%
 
Nevada: Too-Close-To-Call DEM +1.3%
 
New Hampshire: Leaning Republican REP +7.0%
 
*Pennsylvania: Too-Close-To-Call (from Leaning Republican) REP +2.0%
 
Washington: Too-Close-To-Call DEM +4%

West Virginia: Too-Close-To-Call DEM +2.0%
 
Wisconsin : Leaning Republican REP +8.0%
 
 
Likely/Safe DEM: DE, HI, MD, NY-1, NY-2, OR, VT
 

Likely/Safe GOP: AR, IN, LA, AL, AZ, GA, IA, ID, KS, ND, OH, OK, SC, SD, UT

U. S. SENATE RACE CHART 2010: DEM-48 TCTC-8 REP-44

Posted Oct 20, 2010 at 1:51 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

U. S. SENATE RACE CHART 2010

 Predicted Balance of Power: DEM-48 TCTC-8 REP-44


Alaska: Too-Close-To-Call  IND-+4.5%

California: Too-Close-To-Call DEM +3.7%
 
*Colorado: Too-Close-To-Call (from Leaning Republican) REP +2.0%

ConnecticutLeaning Democrat DEM +6.7%
 
Florida : Likely Republican REP +11.5%
 
Illinois: Too-Close-To-Call REP +3.0%
 
*Kentucky: Too-Close-To-Call (from Leaning Republican) REP +4.0%
 
Missouri: Likely Republican (from Leaning Republican) REP +8.0%
 
Nevada: Too-Close-To-Call DEM +1.3%
 
New Hampshire: Leaning Republican REP +7.0%
 
Pennsylvania: Leaning Republican REP +6.0%
 
*Washington: Too-Close-To-Call (from Leaning Democrat) DEM + 4.0%
 
West Virginia: Too-Close-To-Call DEM +2.0%
 
Wisconsin : Leaning Republican REP +8.0%
 
 
Likely/Safe DEM: DE, HI, MD, NY-1, NY-2, OR, VT
 

Likely/Safe GOP: AR, IN, LA, AL, AZ, GA, IA, ID, KS, ND, OH, OK, SC, SD, UT strong>

Latest Polls In Close US Senate Races

Posted Oct 19, 2010 at 1:26 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

Here are the latest polls in competitive U.S. Senate races:

CALIFORNIA: Reuters/Ipsos Democratic U.S. Sen. Barbara Boxer just edges out Republican Carly Fiorina, 46% to 45%.

COLORADO: Rasmussen Republican Ken Buck leads Democratic Sen. Michael Bennet, 47% to 45%.

WASHINGTON: Washington Poll Democratic U.S. Sen. Patty Murray leads Republican Dino Rossi, 50% to 42%.

More Polling In Competitive US Senate Races

Posted Oct 14, 2010 at 1:01 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

More polling in competitive US Senate Races:

FLORIDA: Quinnipiac Republican Marco Rubio swamps Independent Gov. Charlie Crist, 44% to 30%, with Democratic Rep. Kendrick Meek at 22%.

NEVADA: Suffolk University Democratic US Sen. Harry Reid edges Republican Sharron Angle, 46% to 43%. Rasmussen Angle leads Reid, 49% to 48%.

WASHINGTON: CNN/Time/Opinion Research Democratic Sen. Patty Murray leads Republican Dino Rossi, 51% to 43%.

WEST VIRGINIA: Rasmussen Democratic Gov. Joe Manchin trails Republican John Raese, 49% to 46%,\.

WISCONSIN: CNN/Time/Opinion Research Republican Ron Johnson leads Democratic Sen. Russ Feingold, 52% to 44%.

Latest Polls In Close US Senate Races

Posted Oct 13, 2010 at 1:22 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

Here's a recap of the latest polls in some of the most competitive US Senate races:

 

ALASKA: DailyKos/Public Policy Polling Republican Joe Miller just edges write-in hopeful and incumbent GOP US Senator Lisa Murkowski, 35% to 33%. Democrat Scott McAdams is at 26%.

CONNECTICUT: Fox News Democrat Richard Blumenthal leads Republican Linda McMahon, 49% to 43%.

DELAWARE: Monmouth University Democrat Chris Coons holds a huge lead over Republican Christine O'Donnell, 57% to 38%.

ILLINOIS: Rasmussen Democrat Alexi Giannoulias leads GOP Rep. Mark Kirk, 44% to 43%, with Green Party candidate LeAlan Jones polling at 4%.

NEVADA: Fox News Republican Sharon Angle leads Sen. Harry Reid, 49% to 47%. Public Policy Polling Democrat Reid edges Republican Angle, 49% to 48%.

NEW HAMPSHIRE: Rasmussen Republican Kelly Ayotte is ahead of Democratic US Rep. Paul Hodes, 51% to 44%.

NORTH CAROLINA: High Point University Republican Sen. Richard Burr leads Democrat Elaine Marshall, 45% to 31%.

WASHINGTON: Elway Democratic Sen. Patty Murray leads Republican Dino Rossi, 51% to 38%. Fox News Republican  Rossi just edges Democrat Murray, 47% to 46%.

WISCONSIN Rasmussen Republican Ron Johnson leads Russ Feingold, 52% to 45%. Reuters/Ipsos Johnson leads Feingold, 51% to 44%.

WEST VIRGINIA: Public Policy Polling Democrat Joe Manchin has now reclaimed the lead from Republican John Raese, 48% to 45%.

U. S. SENATE RACE CHART 2010: DEM-48 TCTC-6 REP-46

Posted Oct 11, 2010 at 1:51 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

U. S. SENATE RACE CHART 2010

 Predicted Balance of Power: DEM-48 TCTC-6 REP-46


Alaska: Too-Close-To-Call  IND-+4.5%

* California: Too-Close-To-Call  (from Leaning Democrat) DEM +3.7%
 
Colorado: Leaning Republican REP +7.0%

ConnecticutLeaning Democrat DEM +6.7%
 
Florida : Likely Republican REP +11.5%
 
Illinois: Too-Close-To-Call REP +3.0%
 
Kentucky: Leaning Republican REP +7.0%
 
Missouri: Likely Republican (from Leaning Republican) REP +8.0%
 
Nevada: Too-Close-To-Call DEM +1.3%
 
New Hampshire: Leaning Republican REP +7.0%
 
Pennsylvania: Leaning Republican REP +6.0%
 
Washington: Too-Close-To-Call DEM +5.3%
 
West Virginia: Too-Close-To-Call DEM +2.0%
 
Wisconsin : Leaning Republican REP +8.0%
 
 
Likely/Safe DEM: DE, HI, MD, NY-1, NY-2, OR, VT
 

Likely/Safe GOP: AR, IN, LA, AL, AZ, GA, IA, ID, KS, ND, OH, OK, SC, SD, UT

U. S. SENATE RACE CHART 2010 DEM-49 TCTC-5 REP-46

Posted Oct 08, 2010 at 1:42 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

U. S. SENATE RACE CHART 2010

 Predicted Balance of Power: DEM-49 TCTC-5 REP-46


Alaska: Too-Close-To-Call  IND-+4.5%

California: Leaning Democrat DEM +6.4%
 
Colorado: Leaning Republican REP +7.0%

ConnecticutLeaning Democrat DEM +6.7%
 
Florida : Likely Republican REP +11.5%
 
Illinois: Too-Close-To-Call REP +3.0%
 
Kentucky: Leaning Republican REP +7.0%
 
*Missouri: Likely Republican (from Leaning Republican) REP +8.0%
 
Nevada: Too-Close-To-Call DEM +1.3%
 
New Hampshire: Leaning Republican REP +7.0%
 
Pennsylvania: Leaning Republican REP +6.0%
 
Washington: Too-Close-To-Call DEM +5.3%
 
West Virginia: Too-Close-To-Call DEM +2.0%
 
Wisconsin : Leaning Republican REP +8.0%
 
 
Likely/Safe DEM: DE, HI, MD, NY-1, NY-2, OR, VT
 

Likely/Safe GOP: AR, IN, LA, AL, AZ, GA, IA, ID, KS, ND, OH, OK, SC, SD, UT strong>

U. S. SENATE RACE CHART 2010: DEM-49 TCTC-5 REP-46

Posted Oct 07, 2010 at 1:41 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

U. S. SENATE RACE CHART 2010

 Predicted Balance of Power: DEM-49 TCTC-5 REP-46


Alaska: Too-Close-To-Call  IND-+4.5%

California: Leaning Democrat DEM +6.4%
 
Colorado: Leaning Republican REP +7.0%

*ConnecticutLeaning Democrat(from Too-Close-To-Call) DEM +6.7%
 
Florida : Likely Republican REP +11.5%
 
Illinois: Too-Close-To-Call REP +3.0%
 
Kentucky: Leaning Republican REP +7.0%
 
Missouri: Leaning Republican REP +8.0%
 
Nevada: Too-Close-To-Call DEM +1.3%
 
New Hampshire: Leaning Republican REP +7.0%
 
Pennsylvania: Leaning Republican REP +6.0%
 
Washington: Too-Close-To-Call DEM +5.3%
 
West Virginia: Too-Close-To-Call DEM +2.0%
 
Wisconsin : Leaning Republican REP +8.0%
 
 
Likely/Safe DEM: DE, HI, MD, NY-1, NY-2, OR, VT
 

Likely/Safe GOP: AR, IN, LA, AL, AZ, GA, IA, ID, KS, ND, OH, OK, SC, SD, UT strong>

U. S. SENATE RACE CHART 2010 DEM-49 TCTC-5 REP-46

Posted Oct 05, 2010 at 1:30 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

U. S. SENATE RACE CHART 2010

 

Predicted Balance of Power: DEM-49 TCTC-5 REP-46

Alaska: Too-Close-To-Call  IND-+4.5%

California: Leaning Democrat DEM +6.4%
 
Colorado: Leaning Republican REP +7.0%

*ConnecticutLeaning Democrat(from Too-Close-To-Call) DEM +6.7%
 
Florida : Likely Republican REP +11.5%
 
Illinois: Too-Close-To-Call REP +3.0%
 
Kentucky: Leaning Republican REP +7.0%
 
Missouri: Leaning Republican REP +8.0%
 
Nevada: Too-Close-To-Call DEM +1.3%
 
New Hampshire: Leaning Republican REP +7.0%
 
Pennsylvania: Leaning Republican REP +6.0%
 
Washington: Too-Close-To-Call DEM +5.3%
 
West Virginia: Too-Close-To-Call DEM +2.0%
 
Wisconsin : Leaning Republican REP +8.0%
 
 
Likely/Safe DEM: DE, HI, MD, NY-1, NY-2, OR, VT
 

Likely/Safe GOP: AR, IN, LA, AL, AZ, GA, IA, ID, KS, ND, OH, OK, SC, SD, UT strong>

U. S. SENATE RACE CHART 2010: DEM-48 TCTC-6 REP-46

Posted Oct 04, 2010 at 1:44 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

U. S. SENATE RACE CHART 2010

 

Predicted Balance of Power: DEM-48 TCTC-6 REP-46

*Alaska: Too-Close-To-Call  (from Leaning Republican) IND-+4.5%

California: Leaning Democrat DEM +6.4%
 
*Colorado: Leaning Republican (from Too-Close-To-Call) REP +7.0%

ConnecticutToo-Close-To-Call DEM +4.0% (from Likely DEM)
 
Florida : Likely Republican REP +11.5%
 
Illinois: Too-Close-To-Call REP +3.0%
 
Kentucky: Leaning Republican REP +7.0%
 
Missouri: Leaning Republican REP +8.0%
 
Nevada: Too-Close-To-Call DEM +1.3%
 
New Hampshire: Leaning Republican REP +7.0%
 
Pennsylvania: Leaning Republican REP +6.0%
 
Washington: Too-Close-To-Call DEM +5.3%
 
West Virginia: Too-Close-To-Call DEM +2.0%
 
Wisconsin : Leaning Republican REP +8.0%
 
 
Likely/Safe DEM: DE, HI, MD, NY-1, NY-2, OR, VT
 
Likely/Safe GOP: AR, IN, LA, AL, AZ, GA, IA, ID, KS, ND, OH, OK, SC, SD, UT strong>

Colorado US Senate 2010: Too-Close-To-Call

Posted Oct 01, 2010 at 1:38 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

A survey by CNN/Time/Opinion Research in Colorado reports that Republican Ken Buck leads incumbent Democratic U.S. Sen. Michael Bennetfor U.S. Senate by +5% among likely voters, 49% to 44%.

PollTrack Continues To Rate The Race Too-Close-To-Call

Kentucky US Senate 2010: Is The Race Too-Close-To-Call?

Posted Sep 30, 2010 at 2:36 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

Democratic prospects to retaining the U.S. Senate may have improved, based on the findings of a poll in a key state: Kentucky. The latest Courier-Journal/WHAS11 Bluegrass Poll reports that an earlier +15% lead for Republican (and Tea Party favorite) Rand Paul has nearly evaporated. He now leads Democrat Jack Conway by +2%, 49% to 47% with 4% still undecided. Stay tuned to see if other polls replicate this result.

PollTrack Continues To Rate The Race Leans Republican

U. S. SENATE RACE CHART: DEM-48 TCTC-7 REP-45

Posted Sep 29, 2010 at 3:26 PM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

U. S. SENATE RACE CHART 2010

 

Predicted Balance of Power: DEM-48 TCTC-7 REP-45

* Alaska: Too-Close-To-Call  (from leans Republican) IND-+4.5%

California: Leaning Democrat DEM +6.4%
 
Colorado: Too-Close-To-Call REP +4.5%

*ConnecticutToo-Close-To-Call DEM +4.0% (from Likely DEM)
 
Florida : Likely Republican REP +11.5%
 
Illinois: Too-Close-To-Call REP +3.0%
 
Kentucky: Leaning Republican REP +7.0%
 
Missouri: Leaning Republican REP +8.0%
 
Nevada: Too-Close-To-Call DEM +1.3%
 
New Hampshire: Leaning Republican REP +7.0%
 
Pennsylvania: Leaning Republican REP +6.0%
 
Washington: Too-Close-To-Call DEM +5.3%
 
West Virginia: Too-Close-To-Call DEM +2.0%
 
Wisconsin : Leaning Republican REP +8.0%
 
 
Likely/Safe DEM: DE, HI, MD, NY-1, NY-2, OR, VT
 
Likely/Safe GOP: AR, IN, LA, AL, AZ, GA, IA, ID, KS, ND, OH, OK, SC, SD, UT

U. S. SENATE RACE CHART: DEM-48 TCTC-6 REP-46

Posted Sep 28, 2010 at 3:26 PM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

U. S. SENATE RACE CHART 2010

 

Predicted Balance of Power: DEM-48 TCTC-6 REP-46 

California: Leaning Democrat DEM +6.4%
 
Colorado: Too-Close-To-Call REP +4.5%

*ConnecticutToo-Close-To-Call DEM +4.0% (from Likely DEM)
 
Florida : Likely Republican REP +11.5%
 
Illinois: Too-Close-To-Call REP +3.0%
 
Kentucky: Leaning Republican REP +7.0%
 
Missouri: Leaning Republican REP +8.0%
 
Nevada: Too-Close-To-Call DEM +1.3%
 
New Hampshire: Leaning Republican REP +7.0%
 
Pennsylvania: Leaning Republican REP +6.0%
 
Washington: Too-Close-To-Call DEM +5.3%
 
West Virginia: Too-Close-To-Call DEM +2.0%
 
Wisconsin : Leaning Republican REP +8.0%
 
 
Likely/Safe DEM: DE, HI, MD, NY-1, NY-2, OR, VT
 
Likely/Safe GOP: AR, IN, LA, AL, AK, AZ, GA, IA, ID, KS, ND, OH, OK, SC, SD, UT

Ohio Governor 2010: Leans Republican

Posted Sep 28, 2010 at 2:11 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

According to a new poll, the Democrat has fallen even further behind in the U.S. Senate race in Ohio:a Cincinnati Enquirer/Ohio Newspaper Poll of likely voters finds Republican Rob Portman with a substantial +15% over Democrat Lee Fisher, 55% to 40%.

PollTrack Rates This Race Leans Republican

U. S. SENATE RACE CHART: DEM-49 TCTC-5 REP-46

Posted Sep 27, 2010 at 2:09 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

U. S. SENATE RACE CHART 2010

 

Predicted Balance of Power: DEM-49 TCTC-5 REP-46 

California: Leaning Democrat DEM +6.4%
 
Colorado : Too-Close-To-Call REP +4.5%
 
Florida : Likely Republican REP +11.5%
 
Illinois: Too-Close-To-Call REP +3.0%
 
Kentucky: Leaning Republican REP +7.0%
 
Missouri: Leaning Republican REP +8.0%
 
Nevada: Too-Close-To-Call DEM +1.3%
 
New Hampshire: Leaning Republican REP +7.0%
 
Pennsylvania: Leaning Republican REP +6.0%
 
Washington: Too-Close-To-Call DEM +5.3%
 
West Virginia: Too-Close-To-Call DEM +2.0%
 
Wisconsin : Leaning Republican REP +8.0%
 
 
Likely/Safe DEM: CT, DE, HI, MD, NY-1, NY-2, OR, VT
 
Likely/Safe GOP: AR, IN, LA, AL, AK, AZ, GA, IA, ID, KS, ND, OH, OK, SC, SD, UT

Alaska US Senate: Republican With Big Lead

Posted Sep 24, 2010 at 1:21 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

Despite the write-in campaign of incumbent Republican U.S. Senator Lisa Murkowski, who lost her bid for the GOP nomination to Tea Party maverick Joe Miller, Millers holds a substantial lead in a just released Rasmussen survey in the U.S. Senate race in Alaska. The poll shows Miller leading  with 42%, followed by Murkowski at 27% and Democrat Scott McAdams (D) at 25%.

Delaware U.S. Senate: Democrat With Big Lead

Posted Sep 23, 2010 at 12:46 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

A Fox News poll in Delaware reports that Democrat Chris Coons holds a substantial +15% lead over Republican Christine O'Donnell in the U.S. Senate race among likely voters, 54% to 39%. Another poll, from CNN/Time/Opinion Research, reports a similar result, with Coons leading O'Donnell by +16%, 55% to 39%.

 

PollTrack Rates The Race Leans Democrat

Pennsylvania U.S. Senate: Too-Close-To-Call

Posted Sep 21, 2010 at 1:08 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

A Times Leader poll in Pennsylvania reports that Republican Pat Toomey holds a modest lead over Democratic Rep. Joe Sestak in the U.S. Senate race, 40% to 36%. With 24% undecided, PollTrack continues to raye the race too-close=to-call.

Washington US Senate Race 2010: Democrat Murray Ahead

Posted Sep 16, 2010 at 1:52 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

A new Elway Poll in Washington state reports that incumbent Democrat U.S. Sen. Patty Murray holds an +8% lead over GOP challenger Dino Rossi, 50% to 41%. PollTrack notes that Murrary hovers at the all-important 50% mark.

PollTrack Rates The Race Leaning Democrat

Nevada US Senate 2010: Too-Close-To-Call

Posted Sep 15, 2010 at 1:26 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

Despite small divergences in the polling of the Nevada U.S. Senate race, it looks like the race is virtually tied at this point. A  Reuters/Ipsos poll reports that the Democratic incumbent Harry Reid holds a narrow lead among likely voters over Republican Sharron Angle, 46% to 44%; a new Rasmussen survey has the race tied at 48%; and a Fox News poll reports a narrow lead for Angle, at 45% to 44%.

CA US Senate: Too Close To Call

Posted Sep 13, 2010 at 12:41 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

A new SurveyUSA poll in California reports that Republican challenger Carly Fiorina barely edges Democratic incumbent Sen. Barbara Boxer in the U.S. Senate race, 48% to 46%.

 

PollTrack Rates The Race Too-Close-To-Call

WV Special Election US Senate: PollTrack Moves Race To Leaning Democrat

Posted Sep 10, 2010 at 1:58 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

With two recent polls showing considerable tightening in the West Virginia U.S. Senate race--Democrat Joe Manchin now holds an aggregate +5.5% lead over GOP challenger, John Raese, 49% to 43.5%--PollTrack moves the race from Safe Democrat to Leaning Democrat

.

Kentucky US Senate 2010: Republican Ahead

Posted Sep 09, 2010 at 1:29 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

A new WHAS11/Courier-Journal Bluegrass Poll in Kentucky reports that Republican and Tea Party favorite Rand Paul has expanded his lead to 15% over Democrat Jack Conway in the U.S. Senate race, 55% to 40%. An Anzalone Research poll in Kentucky shows a MUCH closer race with Paul leading Conway (D) by +3%, 48% to 45%. And a new CNN/Time/Opinion Research survey reports that the race is tied at 46% among registered voters.

PollTrack Continues To Rate The Race Too-Close-To-Call

Ohio US Senate 2010: Leaning Red

Posted Sep 07, 2010 at 1:24 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

A just released Public Policy Polling survey in the Ohio U.S. Senate race reports that Republican Rob Portman has a +7% lead among likely voters over Lee Fisher, 45% to 38%. A Columbus Dispatch poll in Ohio reports that Portman leads Fisher by a whopping 13 points, 50% to 37%.

PollTrack Rates The Race Leans Republican

NY US Senate 2010: Democrat Incumbent Holds Solid Lead

Posted Sep 03, 2010 at 1:50 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

A just released Quinnipiac poll in New York reports that incumbent Democratic U.S. Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand holds a huge lead over each of her three possible Republican challengers for U.S. Senate: she tops Bruce Blakeman, 44% to 26%, leads David Malpass, 45% to 24%, and is ahead of Joseph DioGuardi, 43% to 28%.

PollTrack Rates The Race Likely Democrat

Missouri U.S. Senate: Leans Republican, But Slightly

Posted Sep 01, 2010 at 2:07 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

According to a new Missouri State University Poll, the U.S. Senate race between Republican Roy Blunt and Democrat Robin Carnahan has drawn to a virtual tie, with the Blunt at 49% and the Democrat at 48%.PollTrack's aggregate still suggests a Republican advantage.

 

PollTrack Continues To Rate The Race Leans Republican

Nevada US Senate 2010: Still Too-Close-To-Call

Posted Aug 31, 2010 at 2:16 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

A new Las Vegas Review-Journal/Mason-Dixon poll in Nevada reports that incumbent Democratic U.S. Sen. Harry Reid holds a tiny lead over Republican challenger and Tea Party favorite Sharron Angle among likely voters in the U.S. Senate race, 45% to 44%.

PollTrack Rates The Race Too-Close-To-Call

WV Special Election US Senate: Safe Democrat

Posted Aug 27, 2010 at 1:57 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

A RL Repass & Partners poll in West Virginia reports that incumbent Democratic Governor Gov. Joe Manchin (D) holds an enormous lead over Republican John Raese for U.S. Senate, 54% to 32%.

PollTrack Rates The Race Safe Democrat

Arkansas US Senate: Democrat Lincoln Way Behind

Posted Aug 26, 2010 at 2:02 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

According to the latest Rasmussen Reports poll--which is in sync with other recently released polls in the state--incumbent Democratic U.S. Senator Blanche Lincoln is way behind in her reelection bid. The latest poll reports that Republican Congressman John Boozman leads Lincoln by a whopping +38%, 65% to 27%.

PollTrack Rates The Race Likely Republican

Washington US Senate Race 2010: Too-Close-To-Call

Posted Aug 25, 2010 at 1:02 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

Recent polls have been showing a tight reelection race for Democratic U.S. Senator Patty Murray in Washington state. A new SurveyUSA poll in Washington reports that Republican Dino Rossi leads Murray by a larger +7% margin, 52% to 45%.


PollTrack Moves The Race From Leaning Democrat to Too-Close-To-Call

LA U.S. Senate: Leaning Republican

Posted Aug 24, 2010 at 2:19 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

A Clarus Research poll in Louisiana reports that incumbent Republican Sen. David Vitter leads Democratic Rep. Charlie Melancon in the U.S. Senate race by +12%, 48% to 36%.

 

PollTrack Rates The Race Likely Republican

Kentucky US Senate 2010: Is The Race Tightening?

Posted Aug 23, 2010 at 1:15 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

A new Braun Reseach poll in Kentucky reports that Democrat Jack Conway virtually tied with Republican Rand Paul in the U.S. Senate race. Conway leads Paul by a statistically insignificant margin, 41.7% to 41.2%.

 

PollTrack Continues To Rate The Race Leaning Republican

 

Kentucky US Senate 2010: Republican Rand Paul In The Lead

Posted Aug 19, 2010 at 1:33 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

A new Reuters/Ipsos poll in Kentucky reports that Republican Rand Paul (and Tea Party favorite) holds a +5% lead in the U.S. Senate race Democrat over Jack Conway, 45% to 40%.

Will GOP Enthusiasm Help Rubio In Florida's US Senate Race?

Posted Aug 18, 2010 at 1:20 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

The big question hanging over Gov. Charlie Crist's independent bid for US Senate in Florida concerns the relative enthusiasm of voters: Will the strong enthusiasm polls are picking up among GOP voters ultimately help Republican Marc Rubio in November? A new Miami Herald/St. Petersburg Times/Ipsos poll spots "a potentially major advantage for Rubio . . . that three-quarters of Republicans said they were certain to go the polls, while less than half of Democrats said they were a sure bet. The stronger motivation among Republican voters reflects polls nationwide and has boosted the party's hopes of taking back Congress in November."

FL US Senator 2010: Independent Crist With Slight Lead

Posted Aug 17, 2010 at 1:32 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

A new Miami Herald/St. Petersburg Times/Ipsos poll in Florida reports that independent candidate--and incumbent Republican Governor--Charlie Crist holds a tiny lead afainst Republican Marco Rubio in the U.S. Senate race, 32% to 30%, with Democrat Jeff Greene well behind at 19%. If Rep. Kendrick Meek secures the Democratic nomination, Crist's lead widens to +4%, beating Rubio 33% to 29%, while Meek gets 17%.

Interestingly, Crist's job approval ratings--as Florida Governor-- "have dropped to an all-time low for him -- 44% -- and represent the lowest posted by a Florida governor in 16 years," according to a recent Mason-Dixon poll.

Indiana U.S. Senate: Safe Republican

Posted Aug 11, 2010 at 1:55 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

A new Polling Company poll in Indiana finds former Republican Senator Dan Coats best Democrat Rep. Brad Ellsworth in the U.S. Senate race by a significant margin, 50% to 35%.

PollTrack Rates The Race Safe Republican

Kentucky Us Senate: Leans Slightly Red

Posted Aug 10, 2010 at 12:44 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

A Braun Research poll in Kentucky reports that Republican candidate and Tea Party favorite Rand Paul now holds a double-digit lead over Democrat Jack Conway (D) in the U.S. Senate race, 41% to 31%. A large number of respondents remain undecided.

PollTrack Rates The Race Leaning Republican

Missouri U.S. Senate: A Slight Republican Advantage

Posted Aug 09, 2010 at 1:55 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

A We Ask America poll in Missouri reports that Republican Roy Blunt maintains a very modest lead over Democrat Robin Carnahan in the U.S. Senate race, 47% to 43%.

PollTrack Rates The Race Leans Republican

Oregon US Senate 2010: Likely Democratic

Posted Aug 06, 2010 at 1:36 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

A new SurveyUSA poll in Oregon shows incumbent Democratic Senator Ron Wyden significantly ahead of Republican challenger Jim Huffman, 53% to 35%.

PollTrack Rates The Race Safe Democratic

FL U.S. Senate 2010: Another Poll Shows Crist Ahead In Independent Bid

Posted Aug 03, 2010 at 1:09 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

Another poll suggests that independent Charlie Crist--currently incumbent Republican governor--may have the lead in the state's race for U.S. Senator. The just released Florida Poll reports that Crist holds a significant +11% lead in the three-way race: He now has the support of 41%, followed by Republican Marco Rubio at 30% and Democratic Rep. Kendrick Meek at 12%. If Jeff Greene is the Democratic nominee, Crist wins, but by a smaller margin: in that scenario, he gets 37% to Rubio's 29% and Greene's 16%. Earlier in the week, a Quinnipiac poll reported that Crist was leading, but by a smaller margin. In that poll, he garnered 37%, followed by Rubio at 32% and Greene at 17%.

Nevada US Senate 2010: Has Republican Angle Stopped The Bleeding?

Posted Aug 02, 2010 at 2:16 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

One new poll in Nevada suggests that Republican Sharon Angle's downward spiral may have stopped in the race for U.S. Senate. The survey, by Mason-Dixon, shows incumbent Democratic Sen. Harry Reid and challenger Angle are nearly tied. Reid tops Angle among likely voters by a scant 1%, 43% to 42%. Two weeks ago, he held a more significant +7% lead.

CA US Senate: Democratic Prospects May Be Improving

Posted Jul 29, 2010 at 1:15 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

A Public Policy Polling survey in California reports that incumbent Democratic U.S. Senator Barbara Boxer has improved her standing against Republican challenger Carly Fiorina. Boxer now leads by +7%, 49% to 40%, up from her +3% edge two months ago. PPP writers: "As independents have grown to hold a more unfavorable opinion of Fiorina their loyalties in the race have shifted toward Boxer. The incumbent has a 48% to 38% lead with them now, flipping the 10 point deficit she faced to Fiorina at 42% to 32% back in May."

 

PollTrack Continues To Rate The Race Too-Close-To-Call

Kentucky Us Senate: Too-Close-To-Call

Posted Jul 28, 2010 at 1:34 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

In a vital test of Tea Party strength, the U.S. Senate race in Kentucky now appears to be too-close-to-call. A just released Braun Research poll reports that Republican candidate and Tea Party favorite Rand Paul leads Democrat Jack Conway by a scant +3%, 41% to 38%.

PollTrack Rates The Race Too-Close-To-Call

WV Special Election US Senate: Manchin Way Ahead

Posted Jul 27, 2010 at 1:58 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

A new Rasmussen survey in West Virginia reports that incumbent Democratic governor Joe Manchin is way ahead of possible Republican challenger John Raese in the special election for U.S. Senate, 51% to 35%.

PollTrack Rates The Race Leans Democrat

Missouri U.S. Senate: Too Close To Call?

Posted Jul 26, 2010 at 12:53 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

A just released St. Louis Post-Dispatch/Mason-Dixon poll in in the Missouri U.S. Senate race reports that Republican Roy Blunt holds a +6% lead over Democrat Robin Carnahan, in the race for U.S. Senate, 48% to 42%.The Democrat predictably leads in the state's large urban centers, St. Louis and Kansas City areas; Blunt leads every other region of the state by a wide margin. While PollTrack continues to rate the race too-close-to-close, it appears to be trending slightly Republican (like the state itself in recent years).

WI US Senate 2010: Too-Close-To-Call

Posted Jul 23, 2010 at 1:31 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

A Magellan Strategies poll in Wisconsin reports that incumbent Democratic Sen. Russ Feingold is in a tough fight for his political future. Feingold holds a slim, +2% lead over challenger Republican Ron Johnson, 45% to 43%.

 

PollTrack Rates The Race Too-Close-To-Call

CT US Senate 2010: Democrat Blumenthal With Solid Lead

Posted Jul 23, 2010 at 1:30 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

A new Quinnipiac poll in Connecticut reports that Democrat Richard Blumenthal holds a substantial +17% lead over Republican challenger Linda McMahon in the U.S. Senate race, 54% to 37%.

Nevada US Senate: Another Poll Shows Reid In The Lead

Posted Jul 22, 2010 at 1:45 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

Can incumbent Democrat US Senator Harry Reid survive his low approval ratings and win reelection in Nevada? Another poll suggests that he is gaining on his Republican challenger, and Tea Party favorite, Sharon Angle. A new Public Policy Polling survey in Nevada reports that Reid edges challenger Sharron Angle by +2%, 48% to 46%. This is the second poll to report a Democratic lead.

Delaware U.S. Senate: Likely Republican

Posted Jul 21, 2010 at 1:31 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

A new Rasmussen survey in Delaware reports that Republican U.S. Representative at large Mike Castle leads Democrat Chris Coons in the U.S. Senate race by a +11% margin, 47% to 36%.

 

PollTrack Rates The Race Likely Republican

Nevada US Senate 2010: Harry Reid Now Ahead

Posted Jul 19, 2010 at 1:35 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

A new Las Vegas Review-Journal/Mason Dixon poll in Nevada reports that incumbent Democratic Sen. Harry Reid has moved into the lead, opening a lead over Republican challenger Sharron Angle, 44% to 37%. It appears that Reid's strategy of painting Angle, a Tea Party favorite as too extreme has paid off.

PollTrack Continues To Rate The Race Too-Close-To-call.

CA US Senate: Too Close To Call

Posted Jul 16, 2010 at 1:38 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

A new SurveyUSA poll in California reports that Republican candidate Carly Fiorina holds a statistically insignificant +2% lead over incumbent Democratic Sen. Barbara Boxer (D) in the U.S. Senate race, 47% to 45%. Conversely, a new Rasmussen survey has Democrat Boxer leading Fiorina by +7% among likely voters, 49% to 42%.

 

PollTrack Rates The Race Too-Close-To-Call

Illinois US Senate: Too-Close-To-Call

Posted Jul 15, 2010 at 1:21 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

The race for US Senate in Illinois remains too-close-to-call. A new Rasmussen survey in Illinois reports that Democrat Alexi Giannoulias holds a scant (and statistically insignificant) +1% lead over Republican Rep. Mark Kirk, 40% to 39%.

WV Special Election US Senate: Manchin In Lead

Posted Jul 13, 2010 at 12:42 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

A newly released Rasmussen survey reports that incumbent Democratic Gov. Joe Manchin hold a significant lead in the special election to be held later this year in West Virginia to fill the late Sen. Robert Byrd's seat. Manchin leads Republican Rep. Shelley Moore Capito, 53% to 39%, and crushes the Republican Secretary, State Betty Ireland, 65% to 26%.

CA US Senate: Too Close To Call

Posted Jul 12, 2010 at 1:18 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

According to a new Field Poll, "Democratic Senator Barbara Boxer's edge over Republican challenger Carly Fiorina has dwindled to 3 points as she seeks re-election in November, with more Californians now holding an unfavorable view of the three-term senator . . . Boxer, who once held a 30-point lead over Fiorina, the former CEO of Hewlett Packard and a political novice, is now ahead by a margin of only 47 percent to 44 percent, the Field Poll found."

One alarming finding for the incumbent Democratic Senator: "The Field Poll found that since January more Californians have become disgruntled with Boxer, with 52 percent of likely voters holding an unfavorable view of her, compared with just 41 percent who regard her favorably. Boxer's ratings have dropped to some of the lowest levels of her 18-year career in the Senate, with only 42 percent of registered voters approving of her job performance and 43 percent disapproving."


PollTrack Rates The Race Too-Close-To-Call

CA US Senate: Incumbent Democrat Holds Small Lead

Posted Jul 07, 2010 at 12:37 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

According to a new Reuters/Ipsos poll in California, incumbent Democrat Sen. Barbara Boxer holds a +4% lead over her Republican challenger Carly Fiorina, 45% to 41%.

PollTrack Rates The Race Too-Close-To-Call.

WA US Senate 2010: Officially Too Close To Call

Posted Jul 02, 2010 at 1:44 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

A just released Rasmussen survey in Washington state reports that incumbent Democratic U.S. Senator Patty Murray is tied with her Republican challenger Dino Rossi at 47% each.


PollTrack Rates The Race Too-Close-To-Call.

Iowa U.S. Senate: Republican Incumbent Safely Ahead

Posted Jul 02, 2010 at 1:43 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

A Public Policy Polling survey reports that incumbent Republican U.S. Senator Charles Grassley can breath a little easier in his reelection bid: the poll has him leading his hypothetical Democratic opponents by +26 to +30%.

PollTrack now rates the race SAFE Republican

Ohio US Senate 2010: Deadlocked

Posted Jul 01, 2010 at 1:03 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

A new Quinnipiac poll in Ohio reports that the race for U.S. Senate is virtually deadlocked. Democrat Lee Fisher leads Republican Rob Portman by a slim +2% lead, 42% to 40%, with 17% undecided.

PollTrack Rates The Race Too Close To Call.

NC US Senate: Too Close To Call?

Posted Jun 29, 2010 at 12:47 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

After demonstrating considerable strength in his reelection race, incumbent North Carolina U.S. Senator Richard Burr now finds himself in a virtual tied with his Democratic challenger, Elaine Marshall, according to a new  Rasmussen poll Burr leads Marshall by just one point, 44% to 43%. A SurveyUSA poll, on the other hand, shows Burr with a comfortable +10% lead over Marshall, 50% to 40%. PollTrack continues to give the edge to Burr.

 

PollTrack Rates The Race Leans Republican

AZ US Senate 2010: John McCain Way Ahead In Primary

Posted Jun 28, 2010 at 12:04 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

A recently released Magellan Strategies poll in Arizona reports that in the GOP primary for U.S. Senate, incumbent John McCain holds a wide lead of +23% over challenger J.D. Hayworth, 52% to 29%.Significantly, McCain is over the 50% mark, another sign of his strength despite a challenge from his right flank.

NY US Senate 2010: Likely Democrat

Posted Jun 23, 2010 at 1:13 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

It looks like the New York state Democratic strategy of avoiding a primary for incumbent U.S. Senator Kirsten Gillibrand may be working. A new Quinnipiac poll reports that Gillibrand now leads her two possible Republican challengers by significant margins: She has a +20% lead over Bruce Blakeman (46% to 26%) and a +22% lead over David Malpass (47% to 25%).

PollTrack Rates The Race Leaning Democrat

Colorado US Senate 2010: Primary Leaders

Posted Jun 22, 2010 at 1:29 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

A Denver Post poll in Colorado reports that incumbent  Sen. Michael Bennet leads his Democratic primary challenger Andrew Romanoff among likely voters by a hefty +17%--53% to 36%. In the Republican race, Ken Buck holds an equally impressive lead over Jane Norton, 53% to 37%.

FL U.S. Senate 2010: Crist Far Ahead?

Posted Jun 21, 2010 at 1:49 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

While most polls show the Florida U.S. Senate race close, a new Florida Chamber of Commerce poll tells a different story. It shows independent candidate, Gov. Charlie Crist widening his lead over Republican Marco Rubio and Democratic Rep. Kendrick Meek. The poll reports that Crist leads the pack with 42%, followed by Rubio at 31% and Meek at 14%.

Arkansas US Senate: GOP Way Ahead

Posted Jun 18, 2010 at 1:02 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

A Rasmussen survey in Arkansas reports that Republican Rep. John Boozman is far ahead of incu,bent Democratic Sen. Blanche Lincoln in the U.S. Senate race, 61% to 32%.

PollTrack Rates The Race Leaning Republican

SC U.S. Senate: Safe Republican

Posted Jun 17, 2010 at 1:32 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

A just released Rasmussen poll in South Carolina reports that incumbent Republican Sen. James DeMint is safely ahead of his Democratic challenger Alvin Greene by a whopping +37% margin--58% to 21%.

PollTrack Rates The Race In SC SAFE Republican

LA U.S. Senate: Safe Republican Or Closer?

Posted Jun 16, 2010 at 1:09 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

Out this week: slightly conflicting polls on the U.S. Senate race in Louisiana. One poll, from Magellan Strategies shows incu,bent GOP Sen. David Vitter with a substantial +20% lead over his Democratic challenger, Rep. Charles Melancon, 51% to 31%. Another, from Public Policy Polling reports a smaller, +9% lead for Vitter. In that survey, he trails Melancon, 46% to 37%.

PollTrack Rates The Race In LA Likely Republican

CT US Senate 2010: Democrat Blumenthal With Solid Lead Despite Recent Problems

Posted Jun 15, 2010 at 1:10 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

Despite recent problems over his misstating of his military record, Democrat Richard Blumenthal holds a solid lead over his Republican challenger Linda McMahon in Connecticut's U.S. Senate race, according to the latest Rasmussen poll. And a just released Quinnipiac poll confirms this finding: in it, Blumenthal leads by a whopping +20%--55% to 35%.

PollTrack rates the race leaning Democrat.

Nevada 2010 US Senate: Reid Remains In Trouble In U.S. Senate Race

Posted Jun 14, 2010 at 2:06 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

A new Rasmussen survey in Nevada suggests that Senate Majority leader Harry Reid continues to have an uphill battle in his race for reelection. The poll reports that Republican Sharron Angle holds a hefty 11-point lead over Democrat Reid, 50% to 39%.Significantly, Angle hovers at the all-important 50% mark in the poll. 

Ohio US Senate 2010: Deadlocked

Posted Jun 11, 2010 at 2:00 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

A just released Rasmussen survey in Ohio reports that the Republican and Democratic candidates for U.S. Senate--Rob Portman and Lee Fisher, respectively--are deadlocked at 43% each.

Missouri U.S. Senate: A Photo Finish?

Posted Jun 10, 2010 at 2:29 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

Once again the bellwether state of Missouri reflects the greater reality of a nation politically divided. A new Rasmussen survey of voter preferences in Missouri's U.S. Senate race reports that Republican Roy Blunt and Democrat Robin Carnahan are virtually tied, with Blunt edging out Carnahan, 45% to 44%.

PollTrack rates the race Too-Close-To-Call.

PA U.S. Senate: Another Poll Shows Democrat Sestak With Lead

Posted Jun 09, 2010 at 1:36 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

A Democratic Party affiliated by Garin Hart Yang Research in Pennsylvania shows Democratic Rep. Joe Sestak with a seven point lead over GOP Rep. Pat Toomey, 47% to 40%.

PollTrack Predictions: Today's Primary Races

Posted Jun 08, 2010 at 1:07 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

AR-U.S. Senate Democratic Primary Runoff: Sen. Blanche Lincoln vs Bill Halter. PollTrack Rates The Race Close With A Slight Edge to Halter.

CA-U.S. Senate Republican Primary: Carly Fiorina, Tom Campbell, Chuck Devore. PollTrack Rates the Race Likely Fiorina.

CA-Republican Gubernatorial Primary: PollTrack Rates The Race Likely Meg Whitman.

IA-Republican Gubernatorial Primary: Former Gov. Terry Branstad vs Bob Vander Plaats. PollTrack Rates The Race Close, With A Slight Lead For Branstad.

ME-Democratic and Republican Gubernatorial Primaries: PollTrack Rates BOTH Races Too-Close-To-Call.

NV-Republican Gubernatorial Primary: Incumbent Gov. Jim Gibbons vs. Brian Sandoval. PollTrack Rates The Race Leaning Sandoval.

NV-U.S. Senate Republican Primary: Sharron Angle, Sue Lowden and Danny Tarkanian. PollTrack Rates the Race Likely Lowden

SC-Republican Gubernatorial Primary: PollTrack Rates The Race Likely Nikki Haley.



Arkansas US Senate: Halter Holds Lead Over Lincoln in Democratic Primary

Posted Jun 07, 2010 at 7:41 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

In yet another case of the weakening position of incumbents, A new DailyKos/Research 2000 survey in Arkansas finds challenger Bill Halter ahead of incumbent Sen. Blanche Lincoln in the Democratic primary runoff election, 49% to 45%, with another 6% still undecided. These results also show that liberal party activists are fired up in the state, given Halter's run to the left of Lincoln.

CA US Senate: Field Poll Confirms Fiorina Ahead in Republican Primary

Posted Jun 07, 2010 at 7:40 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

In line with every other recent survey, the prestigious Field Poll in California now reports that Carly Fiorina leads Tom Campbell in the GOP primary for Senate, 37% to 22%, with Chuck DeVore in third place at 19%.It increasingly looks like incumbent Democrat Barbara Boxer's challenger will be Fiorina.

Kentucky Us Senate: Seat Leans Slightly Red

Posted Jun 04, 2010 at 12:14 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

A Bluegrass Poll in Kentucky reports that Republican Rand Paul holds a six point lead over Democrat Jack Conway in the U.S. Senate race, 51% to 45%.

CA US Senate: Democrat Boxer Leads Republican Fiorina

Posted Jun 03, 2010 at 1:08 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

A new USC/Los Angeles Times poll reports that in a general election match up, incumbent Democratic Sen. Barbara Boxer leads Republican Carly Fiorina, 44% to 38%. Last week, a DailyKos/Research 2000 poll reported a similar result, with Boxer leading Republican Tom Campbell, 47% to 40%, Carly Fiorina, 48% to 39%, and iChuck DeVore, 47% to 38%.The relatively high number of undecided voters suggests that the race is close, with Boxer maintaining a slight edge.

CA US Senate: Fiorina Ahead in Republican Primary

Posted Jun 02, 2010 at 1:04 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

A new USC/Los Angeles Times poll in California suggests that Carly Fiorina has retaken the momentum against Tom Campbell in the Republican Senate primary race, 38% to 23%; Chuck DeVore trails at16%.

 

PA U.S. Senate: Democrat Sestak Holds Tiny Lead

Posted Jun 01, 2010 at 1:30 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

A DailyKos/Research 2000 poll in Pennsylvania reports that Democrat Rep. Joe Sestak leads Republican nominee Pat Toomey in the U.S. Senate race, 43% to 40%.

PollTrack rates the race too-close-to-call.

NY US Senate 2010: Democrat Incumbent Now Solidly Ahead

Posted May 27, 2010 at 1:25 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

A new Siena poll reports that incumbent Democratic U.S. Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand has passed an important threshold in her reelection race: she is now over the important 50% make in hypothetical match ups with her potential Republican challengers.
She leads Republicans Bruce Blakeman, 51% to 24%, Joe DioGuadia, 51% to 25%, and David Malpass, 53% to 22%.

PollTrack Now Rates The Race Likely Democrat

CA US Senate: Fiorina Retakes Lead in Republican Primary

Posted May 26, 2010 at 12:55 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

Two new polls suggest that Carly Fiorina has retaken the lead--by a fairly wide margin--in California's Republican primary for U.S. Senate: a new Public Policy Polling survey shows Fiorina with a +20% lead over Tom Campbell, 41% to 21%, with Chuck DeVore (R) running third at 16%. These results are quite similar to a SurveyUSA poll released yesterday.

CA US Senate: Tom Cambell Leads Republican Primary Pack

Posted May 25, 2010 at 1:26 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

A new DailyKos/Research 2000 poll in California reports that Tom Campbell now leads the Republican U.S. Senate race with 37%, followed by Carly Fiorina at 22% and Chuck DeVore at 14%.

FL U.S. Senate 2010: Another Poll Shows Crist Ahead In Independent Bid

Posted May 24, 2010 at 12:39 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

The Miami Herald reports that Charlie Crist holds a narrow lead in the Florida U.S. Senate race, "despite nearly half of the voters saying he made a "purely political'' decision to bolt the GOP and run as an independent candidate in the Nov. 2 general election." The new St. Petersburg Times/Miami Herald/Bay News 9 poll finds that of the registered voters surveyed, 30 percent were for Crist, 27 percent for Republican Marco Rubio and 15 percent for Democratic front-runner Kendrick Meek."

Illinois US Senate: Republicans Takes Lead

Posted May 21, 2010 at 1:14 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

With a banking scandal brewing around the Democratic nominee, the race for U.S. Senate in Illinois has grown more favorable to the Republican candidate. A new DailyKos/Research 2000 poll in Illinois reports that GOP Rep. Mark Kirk now leads Alexi Giannoulias the race, 41% to 38%.

PollTrack rates the race Too-Close-To Call.

NY US Senate 2010: Democrat Incumbent Holds Solid Lead

Posted May 21, 2010 at 1:13 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

The Marist Poll reports that incumbent Democratic Kirsten Gillibrand leads her hypothetical Republican challengers by a considerable margin in November's upcoming U. S. Senate race in New York. Gillibrand bests Republican Bruce Blakeman, 52% to 28%; Joseph DioGuardi, 50% to 30%; and David Malpass, 52% to 28%.

PollTrack rates the race leaning Democrat

AZ US Senate 2010: John McCain Ahead In Primary And General

Posted May 20, 2010 at 12:11 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

A DailyKos/Research 2000 poll in Arizona suggest that while the race has grown closer, Republican incumbent U.S. Sen. John McCain leads primary challenger Republican J.D. Hayworth by a significant twelve point margin, 48% to 36%. In a general election match up, McCain bests Democrat Rodney Glassman by 13-points. 48% to 35%.


PollTrack rates the race likely Republican .

 

Indiana U.S. Senate: GOP Well Ahead

Posted May 18, 2010 at 11:46 PM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

A new Rasmussen survey in Indiana reports that former GOP Sen. Dan Coats is well ahead of Democratic Rep. Brad Ellsworth for the U.S. Senate, 51% to 36%.

PollTrack rates the race likely Republican.

Delaware U.S. Senate: Likely Republican

Posted May 18, 2010 at 11:45 PM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

A just released Rasmussen survey in Delaware finds Republican Rep. Michael Castle with a gigantic lead over Democrat Chris Coons in their U.S. Senate race, 55% to 32%.

PollTrack Rates The Race Likely Republican

PA U.S. Senate: Photo Finish In Democratic Primary?

Posted May 16, 2010 at 11:20 PM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

The final Muhlenberg/Morning Call tracking survey in Pennsylvania suggest that tomorrow's race may come down to a photo finish: incumbent Sen. Arlen Specter and challenger Rep. Joe Sestak are tied in the Democratic U.S. Senate primary race at 44%.

The Week Ahead: Senate And Gubernatorial Race

Posted May 16, 2010 at 11:19 PM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

This week, PollTrack will devote it's coverage to upcoming and competitive U.S. Senate and gubernatorial races. We will resume regular coverage next Monday, 24 May.

PA U.S. Senate: Specter Falls Further Behind

Posted May 14, 2010 at 1:05 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

A just released Suffolk University poll in Pennsylvania reports that Democratic Rep. Joe Sestak now lead incumbent Sen. Arlen Specter in the Democratic Senate primary by +9%, 49% to 40%, with another 12% undecided. That a five-point jump from earlier in the week.

Iowa U.S. Senate: Could Grassley Be In Trouble?

Posted May 12, 2010 at 1:01 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

Could incumbent Republican Charles Grassley be in trouble in his reelection bid for U.S. Senate? A new KCCI poll in Iowa reports that the race appears to be tightening up, Grassley now leads Democrat Roxanne Conlin by just nine points, 49% to 40%.

PollTrack rates the race leaning Republican.

 

PA U.S. Senate: Is Specter In Danger in Reelection Race?

Posted May 11, 2010 at 1:06 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

A new poll suggest that incumbent Democratic U.S. Senator Arlen Specter is in Danger in his reelection bid in Pennsylvania. In the Democratic primary, the survey shows Specter behind rival Joe Sestak. In Monday's Muhlenberg/Morning Call tracking poll: Rep. Sestak leads Sen. Specter by +5%--47% to 42%. A new Rasmussen survey also shows Sestak with a +5% lead, 47% to 42%.

Ohio US Senate 2010: Too Close To Call

Posted May 10, 2010 at 1:42 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

With the respective nominees now decided in Ohio's U.S. Senate race, a new Rasmussen poll reports that Democrat Lee Fisher inches past Republican Rob Portman, 43% to 42%.

 

PollTrack rates the race too-close-to-call.

FL U.S. Senate 2010: Another Poll Shows Crist Ahead In Independent Bid

Posted May 07, 2010 at 1:34 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

For GOP US Senate hopeful, Florida Governor Charlie Crist may have made a smart move by deciding to run as an independent: another poll, this one from Mason Dixon poll, finds Crist leading a three-way race for U.S. Senate with 38%, followed by Republican Marco Rubio at 32% and Democratic Rep. Kendrick Meek at 19%. Interestingly, the poll reports that "More than half of Crist's supporters are Democrats, who overwhelmingly approve of his defection from the GOP and recent veto of a controversial teacher tenure bill."

WA US Senate 2010: Too Close To Call?

Posted May 06, 2010 at 1:48 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

Is the U.S. Senate race in Washington headed for a squeaker this fall? A SurveyUSA poll in Washington reports that incumbent Democratic Sen. Patty Murray does no better than 46% against six possible Republican opponents. In one match up, Murray should be particularly alarmed: against Republican Dino Rossi (R)--who is considering a Senate run--Murray trails by -10%-- 52% to 42%.

Illinois US Senate: Are Republicans Headed For Victory?

Posted May 05, 2010 at 1:46 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

Are Republicans headed for victory in the U.S. Senate race in Illinois, possibly winning the seat once held by President Obama? A new Rasmussen survey in Illinois suggests that the answer may be yes. The poll finds that Democratic Alexi Giannoulias falling  behind his Republican challenger, Rep. Mark Kirk (R). Kirk now leads Giannoulias by eight points, 46% to 38%.

FL U.S. Senate 2010: New Poll Shows Crist Ahead In Independent Bid

Posted May 04, 2010 at 1:14 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

A newly released McLaughlin & Associates poll in Florida suggest that incumbent Republican Governor Charlie Crist may have made a good move by dropping out of the GOP primary for U.S. Senate and running as an independent. According to the survey, he now leads the race with 33%, followed by Republican Marco Rubio at 29% and Democratic Rep. Kendrick Meek at 15%. Who does Crist hurt more? The survey shows Crist taking more votes from Meek than Rubio, actually besting Meeks with Democrats.Any trends here? With a large number of undecided voters and Crist and Rubio relatively close, PollTrack rates the race Too-Close-To-Call.

Ohio US Senate 2010: Poll Shows Fisher Way Ahead In Democratic Primary

Posted May 03, 2010 at 1:27 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

It looks like the Democrats are honing in on a candidate to challenge Republican Rob Portman in the U. S. Senate race in November. A new Suffolk University poll shows Lee Fisher trouncing Jennifer Brunner in this week's Democratic primary race, 55% to 27%. These numbers are consistent with a spate of new polls that show Fisher well head in the race to challenge Portman, who is unopposed for the Republican nomination, in the general election.

CA US Senate: Tom Cambell Leads Republican Primary Pack

Posted Apr 29, 2010 at 12:53 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

A new SurveyUSA poll in California reports that Tom Campbell now leads the Republican U.S. Senate primary race with 34%. Carly Fiorina garners 27% and Chuck DeVore is at 14%. Another 23% are undecided about a candidate to challenge incumbent Democratic Senator Barbara Boxer this fall.

FL U.S. Senate 2010: Can Crist Win As An Independent?

Posted Apr 26, 2010 at 12:57 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

Can incumbent GOP Governor Charlie Crist win reelection running as an independent candidate if he drops out of the Republican primary? A new Rasmussen survey in Florida reports that he would not be the front runner at this point: presumptive Republican nominee Marco Rubio leads with 37% of likely voters, followed by Crist at 30% and Democratic Rep. Kendrick Meek at 22%. 

Arkansas US Senate: Incumbent Holds Lead Over Her Democratic Primary Challenger

Posted Apr 21, 2010 at 1:19 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

A just released DailyKos/Research 2000 poll in Arkansas reports that incumbent Democratic Sen. Blanche Lincoln leads her primary rival Bill Halter by 12 points, 45% to 33%.

Nevada 2010 US Senate: Even With Tea Party Candidate, Democrat Falls Behind

Posted Apr 20, 2010 at 12:41 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

A new Mason-Dixon poll reports that even when third-party and nonpartisan candidates are included on the ballot, Democrat Sen. Harry Reid loses his reelection race to Republican challenger Sue Lowden. Lowden now leads Reid, 47% to 37%, with the other candidates getting very little support.

PollTrack Rating in Nevada: Leans Republican

FL Us Seante 2010: Crist Could Win As Independent

Posted Apr 19, 2010 at 12:59 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

A Quinnipiac survey in Florida reports that in the Republican primnary for US Senate, Marco Rubio holds a commanding lead over Gov. Charlie Crist, 56% to 33%. In general election match ups, Rubio holds a very modest lead over Democrat Rep. Kendrick Meek (D), 42% to 38% (Crist's lead over Meek is wider, 48% to 34%.). But what if Crist, now poised to loose his Republican primary bid, runs as an independent in the general? According to Quinnipiac, he would win by a slight margin, with Crist at 32%, followed by Rubio at 30% and Meek at 24%. 

Illinois US Senate: Still A Toss Up

Posted Apr 16, 2010 at 1:12 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

A new Rasmussen survey in Illinois shows Republican Rep. Mark Kirk besting Democrat Alexi Giannoulias (D) in their U.S. Senate race, 41% to 37%. With the lead statistically insignificant--and the number of undecided voters high--PollTrack continues to rate the race too close to call.

Ohio US Senate 2010: Poll Shows Democrats Ahead, Barely

Posted Apr 13, 2010 at 1:35 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

In the Democratic primary for US Senate in Ohio, A new DailyKos/Research 2000 poll reports that Lee Fisher leads Jennifer Brunner, 35% to 26%, with a whopping 39% still undecided. In the general election the poll shows Democrat Fisher leading Republican Rob Portman, 43% to 39%; Brunner leads by an even smaller margin, 41% to 40%. With the leads statistically insignificant--and the undecided number high--PollTrack continues to rate the race too close to call.

Nevada US Senate 2010: Leans Republican

Posted Apr 09, 2010 at 1:34 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

Another poll shows Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid behind in his 2010 reelection race: Rasmussen reports that Reid is considerably lagging behind his potential Republican opponents: he trails Sue Lowden, 54% to 39% and is bested by Sharron Angle, 51% to 40%.

PollTrack Read in Nevada: Leans Republican

PA US Senate 2010: Toss Up

Posted Apr 08, 2010 at 12:52 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

A new Public Policy Polling survey in Pennsylvania finds Pat Toomey (R) currently holds a small lead over Sen. Arlen Specter (D-PA), 46% to 43%.

PollTrack continues to rate the race a Toss Up.

 

CA US Senate: Democratic Incumbent Appears To Lead In Another Poll

Posted Apr 06, 2010 at 1:15 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

While PollTrack continues to rate the US Senate race in California too-close-to-call, a new poll now incumbent Democrat Barbara Boxer in the lead: the Los Angeles Times/USC poll reports that in the general election, Sen. Barbara Boxer (D) holds a considerabele advantage over a generic Republican, 48% to 34%, as she seeks her fourth term.

AZ US Senate 2010: John McCain Ahead

Posted Apr 05, 2010 at 2:23 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

Incumbent Republican US Senator John McCain appears to be leading in his primary race: A new DailyKos/Research 2000 poll in Arizona finds Sen. John McCain (R-AZ) leading primary challenger J.D. Hayworth (R) by a significant margin, 52% to 37%.

CA US Senate: Democratic Incumbent May Be In Trouble

Posted Apr 02, 2010 at 1:12 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

A round of new polling suggests that incumbent Democratic senator Barbara Boxer may be in serious trouble in California. Her lead against hypothetical challenger Carly Fiorina has now dropped to +4.2%, 46% to 41.8%. The two newest polls, including the highly respected Field poll, sow an even smaller lead, at +1%.

PollTrack Early Read: Toss Up

Are Democrats Gaining In Ohio?

Posted Apr 01, 2010 at 1:56 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

Are Democrats gaining in Ohio? A new Quinnipiac poll suggests that the answer may be yes. The survey finds that Democrats now lead in both the U.S. Senate and Governor's races. In hypothetical match ups in the Senate race, Democratic Lt. Gov. Lee Fisher leads Republican Rob Portman, 41% to 37%; Democratic Secretary of State Jennifer Brunner also edges Portman, albeit by a single point, 38% to 37%, a +6% gain over Quinnipiac's February poll. In the gubernatorial race, incumbent Democrat Ted Strickland leads Republican challenger John Kasich by +5%--43% to 38%.

North Dakota US Senate 2010: Safe Republican

Posted Mar 31, 2010 at 1:29 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

A new Rasmussen Reports survey reports that the popular Republican Governor John Hoeven of North Dakota --now running for for the open seat of retiring Democratic Sen. Byron Dorgan--holds a huge lead over Democratic candidate Tracy Potter, 68% to 25%.

PollTrack Early Read: Safe Republican

NY US Senate 2010: Is Gillibrand Vulnerable?

Posted Mar 30, 2010 at 12:54 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

A new Marist Poll in New York suggests that incumbent Democratic US Senator Kirsten Gillibrand may be vulnerable in her reelection bid this November: the poll finds former Republican Gov. George Pataki leading Gillibrand by a slim margin: 47% to 45%. Marist observes: "Former Governor Pataki is the big unknown for Gillibrand. With her approval rating at 27%, Gillibrand will almost certainly have her work cut out for her if Pataki enters the race."

US Senate 2010: Examining The Toss Up Races--Missouri

Posted Mar 25, 2010 at 1:50 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

This week, Polltrack looks at races it rates as a Toss Up for 2010 US Senate.

Here is the poll average for Missouri:

Blunt (R) 47.0% to Carnahan (D) 41.0%.

Slight edge and momentum to the Republican, but Missouri remains a bellwether state of sorts and could go either way in this race, with many voters undecided.

US Senate 2010: Examining The Toss Up Races--Pennsylvania

Posted Mar 24, 2010 at 1:06 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

This week, Polltrack looks at races it rates as a Toss Up for 2010 US Senate.

Here is the poll average for PENNSYLVANIA:

Toomey (R) 44.0% to Specter (D) 41.0%.

Slight edge to the Republican, but the race is a true toss up. The tea leaves are, at this point, very difficult to read. It appears that Specter's number have been improving in recent months.

US Senate 2010: Examining The Toss Up Races--Ohio

Posted Mar 23, 2010 at 12:59 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

This week, Polltrack looks at races it rates as a Toss Up for 2010 US Senate.

Here is the poll average for OHIO:

Portman (R) 44.0 % to Fischer (D) 39.0%.

In this hypothetical match up (including only the respective leaders in their party's upcoming primaries), PollTrack believes that neither party leads in this key bellwether state. Many voters remain undecided.

US Senate 2010: Examining The Toss Up Races--Colorado

Posted Mar 22, 2010 at 1:37 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

This week, Polltrack looks at races it rates as a Toss Up for 2010 US Senate.

Here is the poll average for COLORADO:

Norton (R) 45.5% to Bennett (D) 41.0%.

Slight edge to the Republican, but the race remains very close, with many voters undecided.

CO US Senate 2010: Tied Up

Posted Mar 18, 2010 at 12:49 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

A Public Policy Polling survey in Colorado reports that the 2010 race for U.S. Senate has now drawn down in a tied. In a hypothetical match up, incumbent Democrat, Michael Bennet is tied with his Republican challenger Jane Norton at 43%. The outcome of the Democratic primary in the state could make a difference, however: In PPP survey, Democrat Andrew Romanoff actually leads Norton, 44% to 39%.

PollTrack's Read: Too-Close-To-Call

 

WI US Senate 2010: Is Republican Upset Possible?

Posted Mar 16, 2010 at 1:08 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

Is a Republican upset possible in the 2010 U.S. Senate race in Wisconsin? A new Wisconsin Policy Research Institute poll now reports that former GOP Governor Tommy Thompson is leading Sen. Russ Feingold (D) in a hypothetical match up, 51% to 39%. One caveat: WPRI has tied to the Republican Party. Stay tuned for more polling.

PA US Senate 2010: Democrat Specter Now Leads

Posted Mar 15, 2010 at 2:23 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

A new DailyKos/Research 2000 poll in Pennsylvania reports that incumbent U.S. Senator Arlen Specter has a modest lead Republican Pat Toomey, 47% to 41%. Other surveys have also reported movement in Specter's direction in recent weeks.

Nevada 2010 US Senate: Without Tea Party Candidate, Democrat Suffers

Posted Mar 12, 2010 at 1:14 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

Without the presence of a Tea Party candidate on the ballot in Nevada's 2010 US Senate race, incumbent Democrat and Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid appears to be failing: In hypothetical match-ups, a new Rasmussen survey reports that Republican Sue Lowden defeats Reid by a large margin, 51% to 38%. Similarly, Republican Danny Tarkanian trounces the Democrat, 50% to 37%.

PollTrack Rating: Leans Republican

OH US Senate 2010: No Clear Leader, But Republican Slightly Ahead

Posted Mar 10, 2010 at 12:13 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

A new survey reports that there is no clear leader in the 2010 Ohio US Senate race: "None of the top contenders  . . . are gaining ground at this point, with Republican Rob Portman still holding a modest lead. The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of likely voters in the state finds Portman leading Lieutenant Governor Lee Fisher 44% to 39% . . . Portman holds a 43% to 37% lead over Secretary of State Jennifer Brunner, and this, too, is little changed from the previous survey. Six percent (6%) opt for another candidate, with 15% more undecided."

PollTrack Projection: Too Close To Call

NJ US Senate 2012: Democrat Menendez Loosing Ground

Posted Mar 05, 2010 at 1:29 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

In an indication that the incumbent Democratic senior US Senator is New Jersey may be loosing ground politically in his state, a new Fairleigh Dickinson PublicMind Poll reports that Republican Tom Kean Jr. is in a statistical dead heat with Democrat Bob Menendez in a hypothetical rematch of their 2006 U.S. Senate race, 39% to 38%, with 17% undecided. Although the race is more than two years away, the poll suggests the dramatic erosion of Democratic support in the state following the defeat of incumbent Democratic Governor Jon Corzine last November.

Nevada US Senate 2010: Harry Reid Aided By TeaParty Candidate

Posted Mar 03, 2010 at 1:46 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

A Mason-Dixon poll in Nevada indicates that incumbent Democratic U.S. Senator Harry Reid actually leads his re-election race with 36% of the vote when matched against a generic Republican who would get 32% and a Tea Party candidate who would get 18%. The ability of the Tea Party candidate to siphon off votes from the Republican candidate is enough to shift the outcome: in head-to-head match ups with named Republicans, Reid continues to trail by  significant margins. Sue Lowden beats Reid, 52% to 39%; Danny Tarkanian would prevail over Reid, 51% to 40%.

PA US Senate 2010: Leans Republican

Posted Feb 26, 2010 at 1:19 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

A new Franklin & Marshall poll in Pennsylvania finds Republican Pat Toomey leading both potential democratic rivals Sen. Arlen Specter and Rep. Joe Sestak by double-digits in general election match ups. Toomey bests Specter, 44% to 34%, and leads Sestak, 38% to 20%. Nevertheless, with a large undecided block, PollTrack continues to rate the race a toss up.

PollTrack Early Read in Pennsylvania: Toss Up

Nevada US Senate 2010: Harry Reid Still Behind

Posted Feb 25, 2010 at 1:20 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

Incumbent US Senator and Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid continues to trail his Republican rival in Nevada, now by -8%.

 

PollTrack Early Read--Nevada US Senate: Leans Republican

IN US Senate 2010: With Democrat Bayh Out, State Leans Republican

Posted Feb 24, 2010 at 1:20 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

With Democratic US Senator Evan Bayh out, PollTrack now changes its preliminary read of the state's upcoming Senate race:

PollTrack Early Read: Indiana US Senate Leans Republican

 

NY US Senate 2010: Democrat Gillibrand Has Edge Over Ford

Posted Feb 23, 2010 at 1:36 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

Who is ahead in the possible Democratic primary for US Senate in New York? A new Siena College poll finds incumbent Kirsten Gillibrand (D-NY) holds a significant +26% lead over former Rep. Harold Ford--42% to 16%. In general election hypothetical match-ups, Gillibrand trails former GOP Gov. George Pataki, 47% to 41%, but she trounces Daily News publisher Mort Zuckerman, 49% to 29%.

OH US Senate 2010: No Clear Leader

Posted Feb 22, 2010 at 1:40 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

In hypothetical match ups in the Ohio US Senate race--against Democrats Lee Fischer and Jennifer Brunner--Republican Rob Portman leads by +4% on average. Still, PollTrack rates the race too-close-to-call.

PollTrack Early Read--Ohio US Senate: Toss-Up

Louisiana US Senate 2010: Republican Vitter Favored

Posted Feb 17, 2010 at 2:07 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

According to PollTrack's first read of the 2010 US Senate Race in Louisiana, incumbent Republican David Vitter, though damaged by scandal, maintains the clear edge in reelection bid. PollTrack First Call: Likely Republican

IN US Senate 2010: With Bayh Out, A Toss Up

Posted Feb 16, 2010 at 2:28 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

According to PollTrack's first read of the 2010 US Senate Race in Indiana, incumbent Democrat Evan Bayh's departure greatly improves Republican chances in the state. PollTrack First Call: Toss Up.

WI US Senate 2010: Democrat Feingold Now Clear Favorite

Posted Feb 15, 2010 at 2:04 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

According to PollTrack's first read of the 2010 US Senate Race in Wisconsin, incumbent Democrat Russ Feingold is likely to win reelection. PollTrack First Call: Likely Democrat

PA US Senate 2010: A Dead Heat

Posted Feb 15, 2010 at 2:04 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

According to PollTrack's first read of Democrat US Senator Arlen Specter's 2010 reelection bid in Pennsylvania, neither party has an edge. PollTrack First Call: Toss Up.

DE US Senate: Democrats May Be In Trouble

Posted Feb 12, 2010 at 3:16 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

According to PollTrack's first read of the 2010 US Senate Race for Delaware's open seat, popular US Congressman Mike Castle has the edge in this Democrat-leaning state. PollTrack First Call: Likely Republican

OH US Senate 2010: No Clear Leader

Posted Feb 12, 2010 at 3:16 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

According to PollTrack's first read of the 2010 US Senate Race for Ohio's open seat, neither party has an edge in this key swing state. PollTrack First Call: Toss Up.

Illinois US Senate: Toss Up

Posted Feb 11, 2010 at 3:44 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

According to PollTrack's first read of the 2010 US Senate Race for Illinois's open seat, neither party has an edge in this Democrat-leaning state. PollTrack First Call: Toss Up.

NY US Senate 2010: Democrat Gillibrand Has Edge

Posted Feb 11, 2010 at 3:44 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

According to PollTrack's first read of the 2010 US Senate Race in New York, incumbent Democrat Kirsten Gillibrand appears to have the edge in this Democrat-leaning state. PollTrack First Call: Leans Democrat.

CA US Senate: Democratic Incumbent Has Edge

Posted Feb 10, 2010 at 3:16 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

According to PollTrack's first read of the 2010 US Senate Race in California, incumbent Democrat Barbara Boxer appears to have the edge in this Democrat-leaning state. PollTrack First Call: Leans Democrat.

NC US Senate: Incumbent Republican Showing Surprising Strength

Posted Feb 10, 2010 at 3:16 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

According to PollTrack's first read of the 2010 US Senate Race in North Carlina, incumbent Republican Richard Burr is showing surprising strength after a rocky year. PollTrack First Call: Leans Republican

NH US Senate: Leans Red

Posted Feb 09, 2010 at 2:28 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

According to PollTrack's first read of the 2010 US Senate Race in New Hampshire, the open seats leans red. PollTrack First Call: Leans Republican

Kentucky Us Senate: Open Seat Leans Red

Posted Feb 09, 2010 at 2:27 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

According to PollTrack's first read of the 2010 US Senate Race in Kentucky, the open seats seams a tough win for the Democrats. PollTrack First Call: Leans Republican

Nevada US Senate 2010: Harry Reid Endangered

Posted Feb 08, 2010 at 2:35 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

According to PollTrack's first read of the 2010 US Senate Race in Nevada, incumbent Democrat Harry Reid has fallen behind in his race for reelection. PollTrack First Call: Leans Republican

MO US Senate: Slight Edge To The GOP

Posted Feb 05, 2010 at 5:46 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

According to PollTrack's first read of the 2010 US Senate Race for Missouri's open seat, neither party has a clear edge in this traditional bellwether state (though it has been trending slightly Republican in recent years, it's other US Senator is a moderate Democrat). Still, PollTrack sees the race as slightly more favorable to the GOP. PollTrack First Call: Leans Republican

CO US Senate 2010: Leans Republican

Posted Feb 04, 2010 at 2:09 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

According to PollTrack's first read of the 2010 US Senate Race in the key swing state of Colorado, incumbent Democrat Michael Bennet has fallen behind in his race for reelection. PollTrack First Call: Leans Republican

Arkansas US Senate: Democtic Incumbent In Trouble

Posted Feb 03, 2010 at 1:41 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

According to PollTrack's first read of the 2010 US Senate Race in Arkansas, incumbent Democrat Blanche Lincoln has fallen behind in his race for reelection. The latest Public Policy Polling survey has Rep. John Boozman (R) leading Sen. Blanche Lincoln (D) by a a very wide margin, 56% to 33%. PollTrack First Call: Leans Republican

FL US Seante 2010: Republican Has The Edge

Posted Feb 02, 2010 at 1:15 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

According to PollTrack's first read of the 2010 US Senate Race for Florida's open seat, the GOP has a considerable advantage. PollTrack First Call: Likely Republican

CT + ND US Senate 2010: Dominant Parties Have Edge

Posted Feb 01, 2010 at 1:11 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

According to PollTrack's first read of the 2010 US Senate Race in two states with dominant political parties and strong candidates representing those parties--Connecticut (Democrat) and North Dakota (Republican)--the races are easy calls at this point. In ND, a very likely GOP win would represent a Republican pick up (it had previously been held by Democrat Byron Dorgan). CT's seat was held by retiring Democrat, Christopher Dodd, and should remain in Democratic hands.  

PollTrack First Call Connecticut: Safe Democrat

PollTrack First Call North Dakota: Safe Republican

US Senate 2010 Analysis: Now Through 15 February

Posted Feb 01, 2010 at 1:09 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

For the next two weeks, PollTrack will be offering daily analysis of each of the competitive upcoming US Senate races. PollTrack's cycle of analysis will continue periodically until our US Senate map goes live in the spring. Stay tuned. Today's races: Connecticut and North Dakota.

WI US Senate 2010: Is Rus Feingold In Trouble?

Posted Jan 28, 2010 at 2:38 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

A poll just out from Rasmussen Reports suggests that incumbent Wisconsin Democratic US Senator Russ Feingold may be in trouble in his 2010 reelection bid. It finds Republican Tommy Thompson overtaking Russ Feingold, 47% to 43%, in a possible U.S. Senate match-up.

Frustration, Anger Fueled MA US Senate Vote

Posted Jan 26, 2010 at 1:46 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

According to a post-election Washington Post survey of Massachusetts voters, "dissatisfaction with the direction of the country, antipathy toward federal-government activism and opposition to the Democrats' health-care proposals drove the upset election of Republican senatorial candidate Scott Brown in Massachusetts . . . Sixty-three percent of Massachusetts special-election voters say the country is seriously off track, and Brown captured two-thirds of these voters on Tuesday. In November 2008, Obama won decisively among the more than 80 percent of Massachusetts voters seeing the country as off-course . . . Nearly two-thirds of Brown's supporters say their vote was intended at least in part to express opposition to the Democratic agenda in Washington, but few say the senator-elect should simply work to stop it. Three-quarters of those who voted for Brown say they would like him to work with Democrats to get Republican ideas into legislation in general; nearly half say so specifically about health-care legislation."

MA US Senate: Unionists Backed Republican Brown Over Coakley

Posted Jan 25, 2010 at 1:52 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

In what may well be a testament to the unpopularity of health care reform--and perhaps declining support for the Obama administration--an AFL-CIO survey of union members found that Republican Scott Brown's victory in last Tuesday's special election for the US Senate in Massachusetts "was lifted by strong support from union households." The poll found that 49% of union households in the state supported Brown, while 46% supported Democrat Martha Coakley.

Is Ohio Trending Republican?

Posted Jan 22, 2010 at 1:36 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

Is Ohio--one of a handful of key bellwether states--trending Republican? A new Wenzel Strategies poll suggests that the answer may be yes. In the November's race for governor, Republican John Kasich leads incumbent Democratic Gov. Ted Strickland, 43% to 33%. In the U.S. Senate race, Republican Rob Portman bests Democrat Lee Fischer, 37% to 31%, and leads Democrat Jennifer Brunner (D), 40% to 35%.

MA US Senate: On The Ground Report

Posted Jan 19, 2010 at 12:00 PM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

It's minutes before the polls close in MA. On the ground reports from both campaigns suggest that voting may have been lighter in traditionally Democratic strongholds (relative to Republican districts). While PollTrack cannot confirm this, a reading of on-the-ground journalistic accounts of voting today seems to confirm parallel this view. Still, without exit polls (which were not arranged by news organizations), this may be a long night.

MA US Senate: The Question Of Turnout

Posted Jan 19, 2010 at 7:11 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

While reports of heavy turnout might help Democrat Martha Coakley--suggesting that the Democrats and their union supporters are churning out the vote--it could easily work the other way. It appears from polling that the most enthusiastic and fired up voters are Republicans and disaffected independents, who see their vote as a chance to scuttle a health care reform package that they do not support. Thus, it is almost impossible to predict the implications of heavy turnout. Does it suggest that the Democratic machine turned out its base, perhaps sufficiently to overtake Republican Scott Brown's polling advantage? Or are Brown's supports so fired up that they are willing to brave cold, wind, and snow to cast their vote to assure Brown's victory? That the inclement weather may keep elderly voters--who trend more conservative--from the polls, helps Coakley. That it also may dissuade younger voters, who have a poor record of participation to begin with, could very well help Brown. Stay tuned.

MA US Senate: Election Day Updates

Posted Jan 19, 2010 at 4:50 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

Here are some Election Day updates care of WBZ TV Boston on today's special election in Massachusetts:

LATE-POLLING: A Suffolk University survey taken Saturday and Sunday showed Brown with double-digit leads in three communities the poll identified as bellwethers: Gardner, Fitchburg and Peabody. Internal statewide polls for both sides showed a dead heat.

 
TURNOUT: In contrast to the light turnout for the party primaries last month, there are already signs of a heavy turnout . . .
Massachsuetts Secretary of State William Galvin told WBZ he expects about 40-percent of voters to turn out for the special election statewide. Galvin said about 800,000 came out for the primaries and he believes that should double to 1.6 million based on the intense interest in this campaign.

MA US Senate: FINAL PollTrack Average--Republican Brown +4%

Posted Jan 18, 2010 at 1:11 PM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

The FINAL PollTrack polling average for tomorrow's special election in Massachusetts to fill the U.S. Senate seat of the late-Ted Kennedy shows Republican Scott Brown with a decided advantage: he leads his Democratic opponent, Martha Coakley: 50% to 46%.


FINAL AVERAGE: Republican Scott Brown: +4%

MA US Senate: Politico/Insider Advantage Poll Shows Brown Up By +9%

Posted Jan 18, 2010 at 8:32 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

A just released Politico/Insider Advantage survey shows Republican Scott Brown up by +9.1% in his race to fill the U.S. seat in Massachusetts. Brown leads Democrat Martha Coakley, 52.3% to 43.1%. Significantly, Brown is over the all-important 50% mark in this poll.

MA US Senate: PollTrack Average Gives Republican Brown A Clear Lead

Posted Jan 18, 2010 at 6:28 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

PollTrack's polling average in the Massachusetts U.S. Senate special election to fill the seat of the late-Ted Kennedy gives Republican Scott Brown a clear lead over Democrat Martha Coakley: 49.8% to 45.8%, for an aggregate advantage of +4%. More ominous for Coakley: Brown's numbers hover at the 50% mark. Still, turnout could make the race much closer (or increase Brown's lead).

Intrade: The Bets Are On Republican Scott Brown

Posted Jan 17, 2010 at 3:51 PM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

Intrade, the futures trading website, offers yet another bit of evidence that the momentum is swinging towards the Republican in Massachusetts U.S. Senate Race: As of Sunday evening--after months of Democrat Marta Coakley leading by a wide margin--traders are now betting on Republican Scott brown to win: 70 to 38.9.

MA US Senate: The Momentum Appears To Remain With The Republican

Posted Jan 17, 2010 at 2:11 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

With Martha Coakley's internal poll showing her two points behind as of Friday night (47% to 45%)--taken before her on-air gaffe in which she called the Boston Rox Sox great and Scott Brown supporter, Curt Schilling, a New York Yankee fan--the race looks very close. PollTrack believes that as of this morning the momentum remains with Republican Brown, spurred, perhaps, by a Coakley blooper that suggests that she, the state's attorney general, is a bit of touch with her constituents, not to mention recent state history (think 2004 World Series).

Given public perceptions of Coakley as aloof--the increasing perception among the electorate that the President and the Democratic party is out of touch with their immediate needs, especially with regard to their emphasis on health care over job creation in a time of dire unemployment--Brown's populist rhetoric appears to be resonating, even in true blue Massachusetts.

The bigger problem for the Democrats: even if Coakley scrapes by, a close win in a state that has not elected a Republican U.S. Senator in more than 30 years, suggests real trouble in lesser blue states--like New York, Delaware, and California--and potential routes in swing states, like Ohio, Florida, Colorado, North Carolina, and . . . and we recently witnessed, Virginia.

MA US Senate: Another Red Flag For The Democrats

Posted Jan 16, 2010 at 10:19 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

Here's another fact that should have Democrats very nervous about the upcoming special election for U.S. Senate in Massachusetts: even if the specter of possible defeat drives complacent Democrats to the polling booth next Tuesday, this may not be enough to offset the enthusiasm of Republican voters AND, as some polling data suggests, that independents are breaking for Republican Scott Brown by a three-to-one margin. One even more important observation: independents outnumber Democrats in the state by a wide margin: 51% of registered voters are unaffiliated, 37% are registered as Democrats, and 11% as Republicans.

MA US Senate: Third Poll Gives Republican Brown The Edge

Posted Jan 16, 2010 at 9:53 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

A third poll now gives Republican Scott Brown the edge against his Democratic Challenger Martha Coakley in the race to succeed the late-U.S. Senator Ted Kennedy in Massachusetts: the American Research Group poll finds Brown ahead of Coakley, 48% to 45%, for a lead of +3%.

MA US Senate: PollTrack Average Has Republican Brown Up By +2%

Posted Jan 16, 2010 at 1:41 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

PollTrack's first polling average for the special US Senate race in Massachusetts, has Republican Scott Brown leading Democrat Martha Coakley by +2%--48% to 46%. Stay tuned throughout the weekend for updated averages and analysis of new polling in the state.

MA US Senate: Coakley In Trouble

Posted Jan 15, 2010 at 11:15 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

PollTrack's reading of the latest polls in the MA US Senate race suggests that Democrat Martha Coakley, once thought to be unbeatable in this bluest of blue states, is in serious trouble. One source reports that Coakley's internal poll for Thursday night showed her trailing Republican Scott Brown by three points, 47% to 44%. A new Suffolk University/7News poll in Massachusetts shows Brown leading Coakley, 50% to 46% with only 1 percent of voters remaining undecided. A Coakley loss would spell serious trouble, as well, for Democrats in this November's mid-term election. With MA Governor Deval Patrick's approval rating in the mid-20% range--and the president's standing in the state suffering as well--the Democratic edge in Massachusetts appears to have evaporated this year. (MA is also a state with an exceptionally large block of independent voters, now going by a significant margin to Brown.)

 

MA US Senate: Two Venerable Political Analysts Rate Race A Toss Up

Posted Jan 15, 2010 at 12:53 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

Two venerable political analysts--Charlie Cook and Stuart Rothenberg-now rate the special election in Massachusetts to fill the US Senate seat of the late-Edward Kennedy as a toss up. Calling the race "one of the toughest we've had in a long time, " Cook observes: "The modern electoral history of federal statewide races in Massachusetts argues strongly that while state Attorney General Martha Coakley, the Democratic nominee, could have a close race, at the end of the day it's unlikely that she ends up losing. After all, no Republican Senate candidate has won in the Bay State since 1972. But the non-quantitative arguments are quite strong. Republican Scott Brown has been the superior candidate with, by a long shot, the better campaign... To the extent Coakley may still have a tiny advantage, it appears not to meet the normal standard we have for a 'lean' rating: a competitive race but one in which one party has a clear advantage. We see no clear advantage."

PollTrack suggests another reason to rate the race a toss up: the extreme unpopularity of incumbent Democratic governor Deval Patrick, whose reelection numbers hover around 30% (his approval rating is even lower).

Nevada US Senate 2010: Harry Reid Sinking

Posted Jan 14, 2010 at 2:27 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

The reelection of US Senate majority leader Harry Reid is far from assured, according to new Las Vegas Review-Journal poll. A whopping 52% of Nevadans are unhappy with Reid, the highest  "unfavorable" rating he's received to date. Just 33% have a favorable view. In hypothetical match ups against three Republicans, Reid loses to each by as much as ten points: Sue Lowden (50% to 40%);  (Danny Tarkanian, 49% to 41%); and even Sharron Angle (45% to 40%).

MA US Senate: A Dead Heat According to Rasmussen

Posted Jan 13, 2010 at 1:40 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

Yesterday, PollTrack reported that an internal Democratic poll indicated a big lead for Martha Caokley over her Republican opponent Scott Brown in the upcoming special election for US Senate in Massachusetts. Today, the pendulum swings the other way with a report a new Rasmussen survey reporting that the race is a dead heat, with Coakley barely leading leading Brown, 49% to 47%. Last week, Coakley led by +9% in the Rasmussen survey.

MA US Senate: Internal Poll Shows Coakley With Big Lead

Posted Jan 12, 2010 at 1:30 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

According to an internal Democratic poll obtained by Politico, "Martha Coakley enjoys a solid, double-digit lead in the Massachusetts Senate special election.  The survey, conducted by longtime Democratic pollster Mark Mellman, has Democrat Coakley, the state attorney general, leading state Republican Sen. Scott Brown 50% to 36%.  Mellman’s survey has a similar margin to a Boston Globe poll, released Sunday, which had Coakley up by 15%. But this new poll has the attorney general enjoying a wider lead than in some other internal Democratic data." Stay tuned. 

MA US Senate: Martha Coakley Ahead?

Posted Jan 11, 2010 at 1:43 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

Some polls showing the upcoming  Massachusetts U.S. Senate race close, while a new Boston Globe poll reports Democrat Martha Coakley (D), "buoyed by her durable statewide popularity, enjoys a solid, +15% lead" among likely voters over rival, Republican Scott Brown, 50% to 35%." When undecideds leaning toward a candidate are included, Coakley's lead grows to +17 points--53% to 36%. Yet, a new Public Policy Polling survey finds the race a dead heat: with Brown actually leading Coakley by +1%--48% to 47%, "buoyed by a huge advantage with independents and relative disinterest from Democratic voters in the state." Stay tuned for more polling over the next few days. PollTrack's money is still on Coakley, though the outcome of the race is far from clear.

VA US Senate 2012: Is Republican George Allen Thinking About A Comeback?

Posted Jan 08, 2010 at 2:20 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

The Washington Post reports that former Republican US Senator George Allen "is thinking pretty seriously about public office, including a possible rematch against Democrat Jim Webb, who defeated Allen in 2006 by fewer than 10,000 votes." A just released poll (though it was taken in August) by Public Policy Polling in Virginia finds Allen leading Webb by an insignificant 44% to 43%. PPP writes: "The 'Macaca' incident certainly played a part in Allen's 2006 loss, but its being a terrible year for Republicans nationally may have played a bigger role. He would have survived in most other election cycles, and his present numbers are an indication that he's far from unelectable in the future."

CT US Senate 2010: With Dodd Out, Democratic AG Popular

Posted Jan 07, 2010 at 1:45 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

With Chris Dodd bowing out for reelection, a new Public Policy Polling survey in Connecticut reports that Democratic Attorney General Richard Blumenthal leads all three Republicans in the U.S. Senate race by at least 30 points. Blumenthal bests Republicans Rob Simmons, 59% to 28%; Linda McMahon, 60% to 28%; and Peter Schiff, 63% to 23%. PPP writes: "Blumenthal is unusually popular, especially in hyper partisan times when voters like few politicians. 59% have a favorable opinion of him to just 19% who see him negatively. It's no surprise that he's liked by 71% of Democrats and 60% of independents, but even Republicans view him favorably by a 37/35 margin. It doesn't take a lot of hands to count the number of Democratic politicians with positive numbers among GOP voters these days... It would take an epic collapse for him not to be Connecticut's next Senator."

MA US Senate: Martha Coakley In The Lead BY +9%

Posted Jan 06, 2010 at 1:30 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

In the January 19th special election to fill the seat of late Senator Edward Kennedy in Massachusetts, "State Attorney General Martha Coakley holds a nine-point lead over her Republican rival, state Senator Scott Brown, in Massachusetts’ special U.S. Senate election to fill the seat of the late Edward M. Kennedy. A new Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of likely voters in the state finds Coakley ahead of Brown 50% to 41%. One percent (1%) prefer some other candidate, and seven percent (7%) are undecided."

Is Ben Nelson Vulnerable In Nebraska?

Posted Jan 04, 2010 at 2:07 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

Though his term as Nebraska's US Senator does not end until 2012, there is speculation that Democrat Ben Nelson may be in trouble in his home state. As Nebraska's Journal Star reports: "As a fresh poll measured the political cost of Sen. Ben Nelson's health reform vote, he prepared Tuesday to take his case directly to Nebraskans during Wednesday night's Holiday Bowl game. Nelson will air a new TV ad in which he attempts to debunk opposition claims that the Senate legislation represents a government takeover, and he makes the case for health care reform . . . The political damage Nelson may have incurred in providing the critical 60th vote that cleared the way for Senate passage of the health care reform bill showed up Tuesday in a poll released by Rasmussen Reports. The telephone survey of 500 Nebraskans, conducted Monday, suggested Republican Gov. Dave Heineman would defeat Nelson in a potential 2012 Senate race by a 61-30 margin. The poll showed Nelson with a 55 percent unfavorable rating and 64 percent disapproval for Democratic health care reform legislation."

AR, CT, NV Senate 2010: Democrats in Trouble

Posted Dec 30, 2009 at 2:15 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

In another sign that Democrats may suffer loses in the 2010 mid-term election, Sens. Christopher Dodd (D-CT), Blanche Lincoln (D-AR) and Harry Reid (D-NV) all now have disapproval ratings above 50%, according to recent polling. As Tom Jensen observes: "Politics is full of surprises and who knows what unexpected things will happen in the next year but if I had to pick three Senators running for reelection right now who will be cleaning out their offices at this time next year it would be Dodd, Lincoln, and Reid. Once voters have decided the disapprove of you it's very hard to overcome that. "

MO US Senate: Presumptive Candiates Very Close

Posted Dec 22, 2009 at 1:12 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

A new Rasmussen Reports survey suggests that the 2010 US Senate race in MO is very close between the two likely nominees for the open Senate seat: The poll of 500 likely voters gave Democratic Missouri Secretary of State Robin Carbahan a two point lead over Repubican Rep. Roy Blunt--46% to 44%.

PA US Senate 2010: A Dead Heat

Posted Dec 21, 2009 at 1:23 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

A just released Quinnipiac University survey reports that if the 2010 US Senate Election in PA were held today, incumbent Senator Arlen Specter (D) and former Rep. Pat Toomey would be in a dead heat, tied at 44 percent. In the Democratic primary, Specter is surprisingly strong, boasting a 20 point lead over Rep. Joe Sestak (D-Pa.), 50 percent to 30 percent, according to the poll in the Democratic primary scheduled for April 2010.

Colorado US Senate 2010: Democratic Appointee Struggling

Posted Dec 17, 2009 at 1:39 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

According to a new Rasmussen Reports survey, former Lieutenant Governor Jane Norton appears to be the Republican with the best shot of beating either of the potential Democratic candidates in Colorado’s race for the U.S. Senate. According to the poll, Norton bests incumbent Democratic Senator Michael Bennet 46% to 37%. Benet was named to the Senate by Democratic Governor Bill Ritter after Senator Ken Salazar became secretary of the Interior. Eight percent (8%) prefer some other candidate, and eight percent (8%) are undecided. Additional bad news for the Democrats: Bennet "has a challenger in his own party, former state House Speaker Andrew Romanoff. Norton beats Romanoff 45% to 34%, little changed from the previous survey. Fifteen percent (15%) are undecided, while seven percent (7%) like another candidate."

Nevada US Senate 2010: Is Health Care Sinking Harry Reid?

Posted Dec 15, 2009 at 1:39 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

Is Senator Harry Reid stewardship of health care legislation hurting his 2010 reelection chances in Nevada? According to Rasmussen, the answer may be yes: "Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid continues to lag behind all potential Republican challengers in next year’s U.S. Senate race in Nevada, according to new Rasmussen Reports telephone polling in the state. For now at least, his championing of the president’s health care plan appears to raise further red flags for the Democratic incumbent. Fifty-four percent (54%) of Nevada voters oppose the plan, while 44% favor it. More significantly, however, those numbers include 49% who strongly oppose the plan while only 23% strongly favor it."

Harry Reid Failing In Home State

Posted Dec 11, 2009 at 1:38 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

Despite his commanding role as Majority Leader, Democratic US Senator Harry Reid is not very popular in Nevada, a problem that is imperiling his 2010 reelection effort: "Nevadans aren't warming up to Sen. Harry Reid, despite plenty of early advertising designed to boost his image, a new poll shows. Just 38% of respondents said they had a favorable opinion of the Democratic Senate majority leader, the same percentage as in October and 1 point higher than in August. The survey of 625 registered Nevada voters by Mason-Dixon Polling & Research suggests the promotional bombardment that Reid launched more than six weeks ago has yet to hit its target. "I'd be worried,' said Michael Franz, an assistant professor at Bowdoin College in Brunswick, Maine, who studies political advertising. 'I'd stop if I had aired ads for two or three weeks and it wasn't moving the needle.' According to the poll commissioned by the Review-Journal, 49% of respondents had an unfavorable opinion of Reid, while 13% were neutral." According to the survey, in hypothetical general election match ups, Sue Lowden (R) leads Reid, 51% to 41%, while Danny Tarkanian (R) leads 48% to 41%.

 

 

CT US Senate 2010: Democrat Chris Dodd Lags Behind Republican Challengers

Posted Dec 10, 2009 at 1:07 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

The notion that Democratic US Senator Chris Dodd of Connecticut is one of the most vulnerable incumbents is borne out by a new Rasmussen Reports survey. The poll finds Dodd attracting just 35% to 40% of the vote against three possible Republican challengers: "Former GOP Congressman Rob Simmons is still his toughest opponent, leading Dodd 48% to 35%. Seven percent (7%) prefer some other candidate in this contest, and 11% are undecided. Those figures are a slight improvement for Simmons since September. The newest Republican in the race, Linda McMahon, the ex-CEO of World Wrestling Entertainment, earns 44% of the vote to Dodd’s 38%. Eight percent (8%) opt for another candidate, with nine percent (9%) not sure. Long-shot candidate Peter Shiff, the widely-known president of Euro Pacific Capital, is essentially even with Dodd and holds a one-point edge, 40% to 39%. In their race, eight percent (8%) like some other candidate, and 14% are undecided."

MA US Senate: Martha Coakley Wins Democratic Nomination

Posted Dec 08, 2009 at 1:15 PM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

According to the Associated Press, MA Attorney General "Martha M. Coakley [is] projected to win Tuesday's primary election in the race for the late Senator Edward M. Kennedy's storied seat . . . She [is] projected to face State Senator Scott Brown, a Republican, on Jan. 19. Massachusetts has not sent a Republican to the Senate in 37 years, so Ms. Coakley has the stronger chance of laying claim to the seat."

MA US Senate: Does Today's VERY Low Turnout Hurt Coakley

Posted Dec 08, 2009 at 11:00 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

Talking Points Memo reports that the turnout in today's Democratic primary in the Massachusetts' US Senate race is exceedingly low: "As of 3 p.m. ET, only 35,000 people had voted in Boston, less than 10% of the city's registered voters. The Boston Herald speculates that the lower turnout could possibly benefit Rep. Mike Capuano, who is widely seen as the underdog against state Attorney General Martha Coakley. For what it's worth, Capuano's home town of Somerville, where he served as mayor before his election to Congress in 1988, is having a relatively higher turnout -- at 1 p.m., it was a whopping 12.5 percent."

MA US Senate: Martha Coakley Ahead, But By How Much?

Posted Dec 08, 2009 at 1:38 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

According to the Boston Phoenix, polls on today's Democratic primary for the US Senate in Massachusetts are contradictory: The "internal polls of different candidates in the US Senate race seemed to be saying very different things. . . . Tom Kiley, pollster for Michael Capuano, and Celinda Lake, pollster for Martha Coakley, both confirmed for me today what I reported yesterday. Kiley says his poll, taken Sunday and Monday of this week, has Coakley around 35%, and Capuano 7 points behind, in the high 20s. Lake says her poll, taken Sunday through Tuesday, has Coakley at 41%, and Capuano at 20%. (Both have Pagliuca roughly around 10%-12% and falling slightly; Khazei around 7-10% and rising slightly; and some 15%-20% undecided.)  So one poll has a 7 point lead, and the other has a 21 point lead. That's an enormous discrepancy . . . Lake also insists that she is seeing absolutely no trending decline in Coakley's support, whereas Kiley says Coakley's support has dropped slowly but steadily"

 

MA US Senate: Coakley Still Ahead, But Capuano Is Gaining

Posted Dec 04, 2009 at 1:29 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

With a spate of new endorsements from powerful Massachusetts politicos, Rep. Mike Capuano is now solidly in second place in the Democratic primary for the Massachusetts Senate special election, according to a new Rasmussen Reports poll of likely Democratic primary voters. State Attorney General Martha Coakley continues to leads the primary pack, at 36%. Capuano is in second at 21%. Investor Stephen Pagliuca and community activist Alan Khazei are tied for third at 14%.

NY Senate 2010: Is Giuliani The GOP's Best Hope?

Posted Dec 03, 2009 at 2:04 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

Is former NYC Republican mayor Rudolph Giuliani the GOP's best hope of defeating incumbent US Senator Kristen Gillibrand next year? A new Rasmussen Reports poll has Giuliani leading Gillibrand, 53% to 40% among likely New York voters. The poll, conducted Nov. 23, is nearly identical to a Marist poll of registered voters reporting at +14% lead for Giuliani, 54% to 40%.

MA US Senate: Will New Spate Of Endorsements Shake Up Race

Posted Dec 01, 2009 at 1:13 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

Political Wire wonders whether a new spate of political endorsements could slice into Attorney General Martha Coakley's lead in the Democratic primary to fill the US Senate seat vacated by the late-Edward Kennedy: "In a move that could shake up a fairly sleepy race, former Massachusetts Gov. Michael Dukakis endorsed Rep. Michael Capuano for the senatorial seat left open by the death of Ted Kennedy . . .In the last week, Capuano has also been endorsed by Nancy Pelosi and Diane Patrick, Gov. Deval Patrick's wife. With just over a week to go until the Democratic primary, all polls have shown Massachusetts Attorney General Martha Coakley (D) with double-digit leads over Capuano, who polls second, and political newcomers Alan Khazei (D) and Stephen Pagliuca (D) . . . Interestingly, the Boston Globe endorsed Khazei this morning."

AZ US Senate 2010: John McCain In Trouble For Reelection

Posted Nov 30, 2009 at 12:50 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

According to a Rasmussen Reports survey in Arizona, incumbent US Senator John McCain may be in trouble in his 2010 reelection bid. McCain and GOP Rep. J. D. Haywoth are virtually tied in a Republican primary match-up for next year's Senate race: McCain leads Hayworth 45% to 43% percent, with anti-illegal immigration activist Chris Simox at 4%.

NY US Senate 2010: Gillibrand and Pataki In Close Race

Posted Nov 24, 2009 at 2:03 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

If the 2010 US Senate election in New York were help now, Rasmussen reports, Incumbent Democrat Kirsten Gillibrand would just squeak by her presumptive Republican challenger, former NY Governor George Pataki. In the hypothetical match up, Gillibrand bests Pataki, 45% to 42%. 

MA US Senate: Coakley Holds Comfortable Lead in Democratic Primary

Posted Nov 23, 2009 at 2:04 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

according to a Boston Globe poll, Democratic Attorney General Martha Coakley holds a solid lead in the four-way Democratic race for Ted Kennedy's open US Senate seat. Still, with just over two weeks until primary day, nearly three-quarters of likely voters have yet to decide who they will support. Coakley leads with 43%, followed by Rep. Michael Capuano (D) with 22%, Steve Pagliuca (D) with 15% and Alan Khazei (D) with 6%.

Democratic Brand Suffering In Ohio

Posted Nov 17, 2009 at 1:54 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

What a difference a year can make in politics. A new Quinnipiac University poll suggests that the Democratic brand--and President Obama--are both suffering a decline in overall support in the key swing state of Ohio: The poll indicates a shift toward the Republicans, exemplified by President Obama's disapproval rating in the (50%) which is now higher than his approval rating (45%). And Republican Bob Portman, a former House member from the Cincinnati area and the party-endorsed candidate for the Senate, now holds slight leads--of +3% and +4% respectively--over Democrats Lee Fisher, the lieutenant governor, and Jennifer Brunner, the Ohio secretary of state. Given the bellwether status of the state, these numbers could signal problems ahead for the Democrats, both in locally and nationally.

MA US Senate: Coakley Holds Large Lead in Democratic Primary

Posted Nov 16, 2009 at 2:07 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

In the upcoming race to chose a Democrat to run in January's special election to fill the late Ted Kennedy's Senate seat in Massachusetts, Attorney General Martha Coakley is wll ahead of the pack: 'Coakley continues to dominate the Democratic primary race for the Senate seat held by Edward M. Kennedy until his death Aug. 25. She leads in nearly every category of voter, according to a Suffolk University/7 News poll. Coakley, the only statewide officeholder in the field of four candidates, has a plurality among male and female voters as well as across every region of the state. . . . Overall, the survey shows Coakley taking 44% of the primary vote, with Boston Celtics co-owner Stephen Pagliuca second at 17%. They are followed by Rep. Michael E. Capuano at 16% and Alan Khazei, co-founder of the community service program City Year, at 3%."

Generic Congressional Ballot: Who's Really Ahead?

Posted Nov 12, 2009 at 1:10 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

With the full House up for election next year, who's really ahead in terms of political support. The Congressional Generic ballot, which measures general support for the two major parties in these races, offers a snapshot of voter sentiment. Yet, given dramatic differences in likely voter models, three major polling organizations come out with startlingly different results. For the first time in months, for example, Republicans have moved ahead of Democrats by 48% to 44% among registered voters in the latest update on Gallup's generic congressional ballot for the 2010 House elections, after trailing by six points in July and two points last month. Two other pollsters also weigh in, with contradictory results:

  CNN/Opinion Research Democrats 50, Republicans 44 Democrats +6
Rasmussen Reports Democrats 38, Republicans 42

 

Republicans +4

 

Next US Senator from MA: Democrat Martha Coakley?

Posted Oct 19, 2009 at 2:05 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

Who will replace the late Senator Ted Kennedy in Massachusetts in January special election? Right now it looks like  Attorney General Martha Coakley is the heavy favorite in the Democratic primary to be held in December. A Lake Research survey in the state conducted for Coakley's campaign shows their client with a commanding lead. In a four-way race, Coakley leads with 47%, followed by Michael Capuano at 12%, Stephen Pagliuca at 4% and Alan Khazei at 1%. These results come very close to an independent poll released by Suffolk University last month.

Ohio 2010: Next Year's Senate Race Looks Tight

Posted Sep 30, 2009 at 1:47 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

Acording to a Rasmussen survey, things are looking very tight in next year's US Senate race in Ohio: "Next year’s U.S. Senate race in Ohio is a neck-and-neck battle for Republican Rob Portman no matter which Democratic candidate he faces, according to the first Rasmussen Reports Election 2010 survey in the state. Portman is in a virtual tie with Lieutenant Governor Lee Fisher 41% to 40%. Six percent (6%) of Ohio voters favor some other candidate, and 14% are undecided. The former GOP congressman is also essentially even with Ohio Secretary of State Jennifer Brunner, leading by a similarly insignificant 40% to 38% margin. Five percent (5%) prefer another candidate. Eighteen percent (18%) are not sure how they will vote in this race."

CT US Senate 2010: Democrat Chris Dodd Still Lags

Posted Sep 25, 2009 at 1:47 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

According to a recent poll, Democratic incumbent Senator Chris Dodd lags behind his hypothetical GOP challenger in his 2010 reelection race in Connecticut: Dodd trails Republican Rob Simmons, a former three-term congressman, by a significant margin. Simmons leads Dodd 49% to 39% percent  Businessman and former Ireland Ambassador Tom Foley, virtually unknown to Connecticut voters, also tops Dodd 43% to 40%.

AG Coakley Way Ahead In Race To Succeed Kennedy In Mass US Senate

Posted Sep 18, 2009 at 1:19 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

A new Suffolk University poll in Massachusetts give Democratic Attorney General Martha Coakley a commanding lead for January's primary to replace Senator Edward Kennedy: "Voters were asked to choose from among potential Democratic Primary candidates, some of whom have since withdrawn from the fray. They chose Coakley (47 percent), Capuano (9 percent), U.S. Rep. Stephen Lynch (6 percent) and City Year founder Alan Khazei (3 percent). Thirty-three percent were undecided. Voters who chose Lynch were surveyed again after he dropped out of the race on Tuesday." Even in this four person race, PollTrack observes, Coakley is close to the all important 50% mark, an impressive showing.

Democrats Appear To Recover in Ohio 2010

Posted Sep 17, 2009 at 1:10 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

While the Democratic brand has taken a bit of a beating in Ohio recently--the President's approval rating in the state is lower than the national average--the party's candidates for Senator in 2010 seem to have picked up steam: A new Quinnipiac poll reports a improvement for Democrats since their lackluster numbers this summer. The respective primaries of the two parties are as follows: [1] Democratic primary for the U.S. Senate: Lt. Gov. Lee Fisher has a 26% to 17% lead over Secretary of State Jennifer Brunner (D), with 55% still undecided. [2] In the GOP primary, former Rep. Rob Portman (R) leads businessman Tom Ganley (R), 27% to 9%, with 61% still undecided. In the general election, Democrat Fisher tops Portman, 42% to 31%, and beats Ganley 41% to 29%. Brunner tops Portman, 39% to 34%, and beats Ganley 39% to 31%.

CO US Senate 2010: Colorado Democratic Incumbent Vulnerable

Posted Sep 16, 2009 at 1:19 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

According to a new Rasmussen survey, Colorado’s appointed U.S. Senator Michael Bennet is in trouble in his 2010 bid to fill out his full term. He now find himself in a toss-up with two potential Republican challengers, Weld County District Attorney Ken Buck and Aurora City Councilman Ryan Frazier. (Bennet leads Buck 43% to 37%. "With Frazier as the opponent, Bennet is essentially even. The numbers are 40% for Frazier and 39% for the incumbent." As Rasmussen correctly notes, "any incumbent who polls less than 50% is considered potentially vulnerable."

Massachusetts US Senate: Attornery Genral Martha Coakley Leads

Posted Sep 10, 2009 at 12:25 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

A new survey by Rasmussen finds a clear leader in the January 2010 race to replace Ted Kennedy for Massachusetts US Senator: "State Attorney General Martha Coakley is the early leader in the Democratic race to fill the U.S. Senate seat vacated by the death of longtime Massachusetts Senator Edward M. “Ted” Kennedy . . . Coakley, the only officially declared candidate for the post, [pulls in] 38% of the vote. But one-in-four primary voters (25%) are undecided. Next is Stephen Lynch, a U.S. congressman from South Boston, with 11% support, followed closed by Rep. Ed Markey, the state’s senior member of the U.S. Huse of Representatives, with 10%. 7% favor another congressman, Michael Capuano of Somerville, while just 3% support Rep. John Tierney, the U.S. congressman from Salem. Five percent (5%) prefer some other candidate."

MA US Senate: Special Election For Kennedy's Seat Set For January 19, 2010

Posted Sep 01, 2009 at 1:42 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

If Massachusetts sticks to the succession law as now written, the special election for Ted Kennedy's US Senate seat would be held in January: Massachusetts Governor Deval Patrick has slated January 19, 2010 as the date voters will choose a successor to Senator Edward M. Kennedy. According to the Boston Globe,"State law requires the governor to set the process for a special election in motion “immediately’’ upon a Senate vacancy. [The Massachusetts Secretary of State] said he calculated the date after meeting with House Speaker Robert A. DeLeo, Senate President Therese Murray, and top Patrick aides. Under the schedule set by state law, a Jan. 19 election would require a Dec. 8 primary" PollTrack will have full coverage of the race once it's underway.

New York 2010: Democratic Senator Gillibrand Trails Former GOP Gov Pataki

Posted Aug 24, 2009 at 3:32 PM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

If former Republican Governor George Pataki runs against incumbent Senator Kirsten Gillibrand, he would have a slight edge in next year's race according to a new Siena College poll. In a hypothetical match up, the survey finds former Pataki leading Gillibrand, 42% to 39%. These numbers are so close--and so far away from next year's race--that they are statistically insignificant. Yet, in a sign of the Democrat's relative strength against a lesser known, and less popular Republican, she bests Long Island Rep. Peter King (R-NY), 46% to 24%.

CQ Politics Analysis: Democrats Have Lock On 2010 Congressional Elections

Posted Aug 14, 2009 at 2:35 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

According to an analysis by CQ Politics, the Democratic Party looks strong in the 2010 Congressional elections: "Democrats have a virtual lock on 198 seats for November 2010, and in another 31 districts the opportunities for a GOP upset are tenuous at best. Put those groups together and you have 229, well above the 218-seat majority threshold. In addition, one district that’s in Republican hands at the moment, which covers most of New Orleans, is expected to return to its Democratic roots next fall." Still, CQ Politics concludes that "Yet House election history alone gives the Republicans reason to hope for better results after the back-to-back setbacks of 2006 and 2008 thrust them deeply into the minority. The 2010 elections for the House will be the first since Barack Obama was elected president. With very rare exceptions over many decades, the party holding the White House has lost seats in the first such midterm election."

2010 Congressional Races: Are Missouri and Ohio Bellwethers?

Posted Aug 11, 2009 at 1:29 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

In presential races, Missouri and Ohio have been bellwethers of sorts. But can we say the same of these staes in the 2010 Congressional Election? The answer according to MSNBC First Read is, yes: "Without a doubt, the two biggest Senate battlegrounds next year will be in the Show Me State and Buckeye State, and they’ll give us a good read on the health of the two political parties. If the Democrats lose both, it will suggest that the party’s successes in these states from 2006-2008 -- including gubernatorial and senatorial wins in both states, as well as Obama winning in Ohio and narrowly losing in Missouri -- might have come to an end. But if Republicans lose both -- with well-known figures from Bush years at the top of the ticket (Roy Blunt in Missouri and Rob Portman in Ohio) -- that would suggest that the Bush and GOP brands are still major problems for the party. Bottom line: The best way to judge who "wins" or "loses" the 2010 midterms will be in these two states, pure and simple. And they will be the most dominant races the media will focus on next year."

NY US Senate 2010: Gillibrand and Maloney In Close Race

Posted Jul 24, 2009 at 1:23 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

Incumbent US Senator Kirsten Gillibrand has her work cut out for her in next's years Democratic primary in New York. According to A Rasmussen survey of likely Democratic voters, challenger, Democratic Congresswoman Caroline beats Gillibrand 33% to 27% in a hypothetical match-up. Two things to consider: neither woman is well-known to New York voters, the number of undecideds remains very high at 33%, and the spread is just outside the 5 percent margin of error.In other words, the race remains a toss up according to PollTrack's calculations.

 

Minnesota: Recount Struggle Hurts Ex-Senator's Future In State

Posted Jul 22, 2009 at 1:30 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

According to a new Public Policy Polling survey, "more than half of Minnesota voters say they have an unfavorable opinion of Norm Coleman and his actions during the recount. "52% of respondents said they now view Coleman negatively, with 38% still holding a positive opinion of him. 72% of Republicans but only 10% of Democrats give him good reviews, and independents are split 49/37 against him as well. 54% of voters in the state said the way he handled the recount against Al Franken made them less likely to support Coleman in the future for Governor or some other office, compared to 26% who said it made them more inclined to vote for him in a later contest."

Ohio: Democrats Have Slight Edge in Key 2010 Statewide Races

Posted Jul 14, 2009 at 1:37 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

According to a new DailyKos/Research 2000 poll on the 2010 election cycle in Ohio reports that if the election were held now, Democratic Gov. Ted Strickland would lead Republican John Kasich in the gubernatorial race, 44% to 39%. In the U.S. Senate race, the Democratic primary is unclear, with no real leader and the lion's share of voters undecided at this early stage: Democrat Lee Fisher leads Jennifer Brunner 22% to 17%. Significantly, both Democrats edge presumptive Republican nominee Rob Portman in a hypothetical general election match up. Fisher leads, 42% to 35%, and Brunner leads, 40% to 36%.

New MN Senator Has Generally Unfavorable National Rating

Posted Jul 07, 2009 at 2:10 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

According to a recent Rasmusen survey, newly minted Minnesota Democratic US Senator, Al Franken, has a relatively low national approval rating: "44% of U.S. voters have an unfavorable opinion of former “Saturday Night Live” comedy . . . as he prepares to join the U.S. Senate as its newest Democratic member . . . 34% have a favorable opinion of Franken, who will be sworn in today as [the next] senator from Minnesota. 22% are not sure what they think of him." Rasmussen alsocorrectly points out that "it is fairly typical for individual legislators to have negative favorability ratings on a national basis."

Coleman Concedes After Court Rules That Democrat Franken Won MN US Senate Race

Posted Jun 30, 2009 at 8:51 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

Republican Norm Coleman has conceded the 2008 US Senate race in Minnesota to Democrat Al Franken, after the state Supreme Court ruled this afternoon that Franken won. The court ruled unanimously in Franken's favor.

Arelen Specter In Serious Trouble In PA

Posted Jun 29, 2009 at 2:09 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

Former Republican, now turned Democratic, US Senator Arlen Specter is in deep trouble in his 2010 PA reelection bid, according to a new Franklin and Marshall survey: His job approval rating has dropped from 52% to 34% over the past three months. Even more ominous for Specter is that the proportion of state residents who believe he deserves re-election has declined from 40% to 28%. His numbers are tepid even among members of his recently adopted party: 43% of Democrats say Specter deserves re-election; 39% say no. In a hypothetical primary match up with Rep. Joe Sestak (D-PA), Specter leads 33% to 13%. Nevertheless, and quite significantly, 48% remain undecided.

Democrats Ahead In Ohio 2010 US Senate Race

Posted Jun 24, 2009 at 1:35 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

A new Public Policy Polling survey suggests that both potential Democratic nominees in Ohio's 2010 US Senate race would defeat their Republican rival in a hypothetical match up in the race to succeeded retiring GOP Sen. George Voinovich: Lee Fisher leads Rob Portman, 41% to 32%; Jennifer Brunner holds a similar 40% to 32% advantage over Portman. PPP continues: "Anyone trying to figure out whether Brunner or Fisher would make a stronger general election candidate or which has a leg up in the primary will not find it from this poll, as their numbers are nearly identical across the board."

Illinois US Senate: Voters Do Not Want Burris To Run

Posted Jun 22, 2009 at 2:54 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

A poll out from Rasmussen reports that voters would prefer that incumbent (and embattled) Illinois US Senator Roland Burris not seek reelection in 2010. The Democrat, who was appointed to fill the seat of President Obama, is not popular: "61% of voters now say they would definitely vote against [the Senator] if he runs for a full term in 2010 . . . That result is up from 54% back in April. Burris was named to the Senate by since-impeached Governor Rod Blagojevich . . . 6% of voters would definitely vote for Burris, while 32% say their vote would depend on who runs against him."

Do Democrats Have An Opening In 2010 NC Senate Race?

Posted Jun 18, 2009 at 2:37 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

In a state that is trending slightly Democratic these days--Obama won it in 2008--the Democrats may have an edge in the 2010 US Senate Race. Public Policy Polling reports that a mere 29% of North Carolina voters think incumbent Republican senator Richard Burr deserves another term, "with 49% saying it’s time to give someone else a chance . . . 22% are unsure. Even among Republican voters just 49% say Burr deserves another term. 34% of independents and 11% for Democrats do. These numbers reflect one aspect of Burr’s precarious position that has not gotten a lot of play, which is that even voters in his own party are not that enthused about him, something that could pose a problem in turning out GOP voters with this race at the top of the ticket next year. Tested against a generic Democratic candidate, Burr trails 41-38. One thing he does have working in his favor is a 39-32 lead with independents, but he’s not showing the level of crossover support at this point that he would need to get reelected.

Connecticut US Senate: Christopher Dodd Doing Better in 2010 Reelection Bid

Posted Jun 15, 2009 at 2:28 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

A Quinnipiac University survey suggests that the propects of incumbent Democratic  Senator Christopher Dodd have much improved in his 2010 reelection bid: The poll finds Dodd gaining on former Rep. Rob Simmons (R-CT). However, Simmons still leads by six points, 45% to 39%, in a 2010 Senate match up. Simmons led by 16 points in early April. Against State Sen. Sam Caligiuri (R), Dodd leads 41% to 39%." Still much work lies ahead for dodd if he is to move into a comfortable position for reelection. PollTrack, at this early stage, rates the race a toss-up.

Former GOP Gov. Pataki Strong Against Gillibrand in 2010 NY Senate

Posted May 29, 2009 at 1:46 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

Former GOP New York Governor George Pataki would make a formidable opponent against Democratic US Senator Kirsten Gillibrand in her 2010 reelection effort. Indeed, with a relative low approval rating, the Democrat may have a tough reelection race. A new Siena Institute poll reports:  "While 27 percent of voters are prepared to elect her Senator in 2010, 39 percent of voters prefer 'someone else.' This is a significant improvement for Gillibrand since April when it was 20-47 percent. In head-to-head matchups, Gillibrand leads Nassau County Congressman Peter King 48-26 percent (up slightly from 47-23 percent in March). But, significantly, she remains tied with Pataki 43-43 percent (was 41-41 percent in March)."

Public Policy Polling: US Senator Approval Ratings

Posted May 26, 2009 at 2:06 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

A very interesting survey from Public Policy Polling takes stock of the approval ratings of a number of US Senators. The highest approval rating of the lot: Democrat Amy Klobuchar from Minnesota. The lowest: embattled Illinois Democratic Roland Burris, who replace Barack Obama. Here is the list:

enator

Approval

Amy Klobuchar (D-MN)

62/25

Tom Coburn (R-OK)

59/29

Kay Bailey Hutchison (R-TX)

58/31

Tom Carper (D-DE)

57/26

Kit Bond (R-MO)

57/27

Mark Pryor (D-AR)

54/30

John McCain (R-AZ)

53/31

James Inhofe (R-OK)

52/35

Dick Durbin (D-IL)

47/34

Blanche Lincoln (D-AR)

45/40

Jim Webb (D-VA)

44/33

Mitch McConnell (R-KY)

44/47

Bill Nelson (D-FL)

42/29

Mark Udall (D-CO)

41/46

Richard Burr (R-NC)

36/32

Ted Kaufman (D-DE)

35/24

Michael Bennet (D-CO)

34/41

Kay Hagan (D-NC)

33/33

Johnny Isakson (R-GA)

30/25

George Voinovich (R-OH)

30/38

Jim Bunning (R-KY)

28/54

Mel Martinez (R-FL)

23/37

Roland Burris (D-IL)

17/62

2010 MO US Senate: Democrats Have The Edge

Posted May 21, 2009 at 2:00 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

According to a statewide poll in Missouri (Democracy Corps), Democrats may have the edge in the 2010 US Senate Race: "The closest state during the 2008 presidential election, Missouri shows early signs of opportunity for Democrats to pick up the senate seat currently held by Republican Kit Bond. [The survey] shows Secretary of State Robin Carnahan leading Republican Congressman Roy Blunt 53 to 44 percent and leading former Treasurer Sarah Steelman 54 to 42 percent. At this early and uncertain stage, Carnahan starts off the contest with a strong personal and professional standing that puts her in a position to defeat either potential opponent. At the same time, it appears as if Steelman may be the tougher foe with a stronger profile than Blunt and the potential to run a fresh outsider candidacy that Blunt cannot offer."

 

 

Minnesota Voters Want Coleman (R) To Concede

Posted May 20, 2009 at 1:14 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

According to Rasmussen Reports, 54% of Minnesota voters say Republican incumbent Norm Coleman should concede the race after months of legal challenges and let Al Franken be seated in the U.S. Senate. But 41% disagree . . . 87% of Democrats want Coleman to quit, while 77% of Republicans want him to stay in the fight. Most (53%) of those not affiliated with either major party say that Coleman should concede. 63% of all voters in the state are now convinced that Franken will ultimately be named the winner of the Senate race. Just 16% say Coleman will win in the end. 21% are still not sure who the winner will be."

NH US SENATE: Republican Leads In Hypothetical Match Up

Posted May 13, 2009 at 1:43 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

In a hypothetical match up for the 2010 US Senate race in New Hampshire, it's the GOP candidate who has the edge: If Republican incumbent senator Judd Gregg does not choose to run in 2010, a likely decision at this point, "a likely Republican candidate is former Senator John Sununu, who lost his reelection battle to Shaheen in 2008. Sununu is well known, but his popularity is still suffering from the bruising 2008 election campaign. [In a recent poll] currently, 47% of New Hampshire adults have a favorable opinion of Sununu, 36% have an unfavorable opinion of him, 5% are neutral, and 12% don’t know enough about him to say. Sununu’s net favorability rating is +11%. Although Sununu has not indicated that he plans to run in 2010, a hypothetical matchup for Senate between Hodes and Sununu is likely to be a close match. If the election were held today, 46% of New Hampshire likely voters say they would vote for Sununu, 41% for Hodes, 2% for some other candidate, and 11% are not sure. Both candidates have the full support of their partisans, and Sununu holds a narrow 38% to 31% lead among Independents."

Democratic NY US Senator Gillibrand In Weak Position For Reelection

Posted May 12, 2009 at 1:57 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

According to a Marist Institute Poll, Democratic NY Senator Kirsten Gillibrand is in a weak position, re: her 2010 reelection bid: "Hers was an atypical ascent to the Senate, and . . . Gillibrand has a long way to go to convince New Yorkers that she belongs there . . . 19% of voters today think she is doing an above average job.  And, more voters have formed an opinion of Gillibrand.  While half of voters back in March reported they weren’t quite sure how Gillibrand was doing, fewer — 43% — feel that way now.  However, there’s a rub.  More New York voters — 10% — currently view Gillibrand as doing a subpar job compared with two months ago when 5% shared that view. . . "

". . . . What are Senator Gillibrand’s chances for election to the U.S. Senate in 2010?  In a hypothetical matchup against former New York State Governor George Pataki, Gillibrand trails Pataki, 38% to 46%.  Gillibrand has lost ground to the former governor.  In Marist' March surve, Gillibrand led Pataki 45% to 41%.  Although still in the lead, Gillibrand has also lost support in a hypothetical pairing against U.S. Representative Peter King.  Currently, 42% of voters say they would back Gillibrand while 31% report they would vote for King.  27% are unsure.  However, in March, Gillibrand led King 49% to 28% with 23% reporting they were uncertain about whom they would support."

A Ray Of Hope For GOP In 2010 Pennsylvania Senate Race?

Posted May 05, 2009 at 12:46 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

Is there a ray of hope for the GOP in its efforts to unseat newly minted Democrat US Senator Arlen Specter in his 2010 reelection drive in Pennsylvania? Perhaps: "Former Pennsylvania Gov. Tom Ridge (R) is considering running for the U.S. Senate nomination in his home state." According to Roll Call and reported by Political Wire, national Republicans "have been publicly and privately urging Ridge to consider a Senate bid since Sen. Arlen Specter (D-PA) announced earlier this week that he was switching parties and would run for re-election as a Democrat in 2010." Ridge's 'moderate politics and national profile would make him a more viable candidatei in the general election than former Rep. Pat Toomey (R-PA)." A new Susquehanna Polling & Research poll also finds Ridge would edge Specter, 39% to 38%, in a match up for U.S. Senate.

Newly Minted Democrat, Sen. Arlen Specter, Now Favored In His 2010 Reelection Bid

Posted Apr 30, 2009 at 12:40 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

According to Political Wire, "as a result of Sen. Arlen Specter's decision to run for re-election as a Democrat, CQ Politics is changing its rating of the Pennsylvania U.S. Senate race to "Leans Democratic" from the tossup category, "No Clear Favorite." Similarly, the Cook Political Report changed its rating to Leans Democratic and the Rothenberg Political Report now rates the race as Clear Advantage for the Incumbent Party." What a difference a day can make.

US Senator Specter Not Popular With Fellow Republicans in Pennsylvania

Posted Apr 29, 2009 at 1:00 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

One major reason why incumbent US Senator Arlen Spector jumped to the Democratic party yesterday: he remains very unpopular with fellow Republicans in Pennsylvania. According to a recent poll, the moderate sentaor trailed former conservative Congressman Pat Toomey by 21 points in "an early look at Pennsylvania’s 2010 Republican Primary. 51% of Republican voters statewide say they’d vote for Toomey while just 30% would support Specter. Specter is viewed favorably by 42% of Pennsylvania Republicans and unfavorably by 55%, according to a new Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of voters in the state. Those are stunningly poor numbers for a long-term incumbent senator. Specter was first elected to the Senate in 1980." The Senator chances appear much stronger with Democrats, with whom his approval rating has remained generally high in the state.

Minnesota US Senate: Voters Want Republican Coleman To Concede

Posted Apr 28, 2009 at 1:51 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

A new Minneapolis Star Tribune poll has bad news for 2008 Republican US Senate candidate: most voters want him to concede the race to Democratic challenger Al Franken, who now leads by several hundred votes: "Nearly two-thirds of Minnesotans surveyed think Norm Coleman should concede the U.S. Senate race to Al Franken, but just as many believe the voting system that gave the state its longest running election contest needs improvement. A new poll has found that 64% of those responding believe Coleman, the Republican, should accept the recount trial court's April 13 verdict that Democrat Franken won the race by 312 votes. Only 28% consider last week's appeal by Coleman to the Minnesota Supreme Court 'appropriate.' Large majorities of those polled said they would oppose any further appeal to the U.S. Supreme Court. Should Coleman win at the state Supreme Court, 57% of respondents said Franken should concede. And 73% believe Coleman should give up if he loses at the state's highest court."

Minnesota US Senate: Court Delays Decision Until At Least June

Posted Apr 27, 2009 at 1:21 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

It does not look like the endless US Senate race in Minnesota will end anytime soon, as the state's highest court has now delayed any ruling on the matter until at least June: "The state Supreme Court set the schedule today for the legal showdown between Democrat Al Franken and Republican Norm Coleman over the Senate seat that has been vacant since January. The schedule, set by the five justices who will hear Coleman's appeal, appears to hew more closely to his proposed schedule than the quicker one proposed by Franken. Coleman must file his brief in the case no later than next Thursday; Franken has until May 11 to do so. Coleman then has until May 15 to file his reply brief. The justices will hear the appeal on June 1." 

Dem. Chris Dodd Lacks Voter Support in 2010 CT. Senate Rellection Bid

Posted Apr 22, 2009 at 1:05 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

As if we needed another sign of the unpopularity of Connecticut Democratic US Senator Christopher Dodd, a local newspaper reports that "Dodd appears to have looked everywhere but his home state to fuel what pundits anticipate will be one of the most hotly contested races in the nation in 2010. The five-term incumbent reported raising just $4,250 from five Connecticut residents during the first three months of the year while raking in $604,745 from nearly 400 individuals living outside the state. While incumbents often turn to special interests for early campaign fundraising, Dodd's out-of-state total seems unusually high and comes at a time when he has been plagued by poor approval ratings among state voters." The paper concludes, ominously for Dodd: "The meager state fundraising effort also seems antithetical to a campaign strategy to rebuild confidence among Connecticut voters that he is on their side."

Nevertheless, according to the Boston Globe,  a support no more important than the president continues to express confidence in Connecticut's junior senator: "I can't say it any clearer: I will be helping Chris Dodd because he deserves the help. Chris is going through a rough patch. He just has an extraordinary record of accomplishment, and I think the people in Connecticut will come to recognize that... He always has his constituencies at heart, and he's somebody I'm going to be relying on and working very closely with to shepherd through the types of regulatory reforms we need."

Minnesota US Senate: Republican Coleman Not Backing Down

Posted Apr 20, 2009 at 1:49 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

The Republican candidate Norm Coleman--despite loosing his race for reelection to Democrat Al Franken, according to a three-judge panel--is clearly prepared to keep the seemingly endless race going. According to the Minneapolis Star Tribune: "Norm Coleman is hitting a different kind of campaign trail this week. The former Republican senator is using a media blitz to convince Minnesotans weary of the recount process and frustrated that they are still a senator short that he has good reason to appeal Democrat Al Franken's victory in the U.S. Senate election trial. And if the Minnesota Supreme Court sees it his way, he said, he thinks he can win."I'm hopeful. I think the law is on our side," he said. In a meeting Thursday with the Star Tribune editorial board, Coleman said that the principle of enfranchising legitimate voters is more important than leaving Minnesota without two senators for another few weeks. But Coleman also acknowledged that many Minnesotans are tired of the seemingly interminable recount process, in which he trails by 312 votes after Monday's ruling by a three-judge panel. He is doing a round of interviews, he said, "for the purpose of letting folks know that we're doing this for a reason."

Court Declares Democrat Franken Winner In Minnesota US Senate Race

Posted Apr 14, 2009 at 2:19 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

A three judge panel in Minnesota has declared Democrat Al Franen the winner over Republican Norm Coleman in the November 2008 US Senate race: "Three judges soundly rejected Norm Coleman's attempt to reverse Al Franken's lead in the U.S. Senate election late Monday, sweeping away the Republican's claims in a blunt ruling Coleman promised to appeal. After a trial spanning nearly three months, the judicial panel dismissed Coleman's central argument that the election and its aftermath were fraught with systemic errors that made the results invalid. 'The overwhelming weight of the evidence indicates that the Nov. 4, 2008, election was conducted fairly, impartially and accurately,' the panel said in its unanimous decision. The panel concluded that Franken, a DFLer, 'received the highest number of votes legally cast' in the election. Franken emerged from the trial with a 312-vote lead, the court ruled, and "is therefore entitled to receive the certificate of election."

Minnesota Recount: Democrat Al Franken's Lead Expands

Posted Apr 10, 2009 at 1:54 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

In the endless Minnesota recount, Democrat Al Franken's lead has expanded a bit: "Franken extended his lead over Republican Norm Coleman in Minnesota's U.S. Senate election, after the counting of about 350 formerly rejected absentee ballots this morning. Franken captured 198 of the ballots, while Coleman took 111. The ballots added 87 votes to Franken's recount lead, enlarging his margin over Coleman to 312. The result makes it even more likely that, barring an unforeseen circumstance, Franken will prevail in the election lawsuit that Coleman filed in January to contest the Democrat's 225-vote recount lead. The three-judge panel presiding over the case has not said when it will issue a final decision."

Arkansas Democratic Senator In Trouble In 2010

Posted Apr 07, 2009 at 1:35 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

A Public Policy Polling’s Arkansas survey reports tepid "approval ratings for Democratic Senator Blanche Lincoln of Arkansas. 45% of voters support the job she’s doing while 40% say they disapprove of her work. Hurting Lincoln’s numbers are poor marks from independents, only 31% of whom say they approve of her performance while 50% rate her negatively. 73% of Democrats but only 22% of Republicans express approval. Lincoln holds solid, but not spectacular, leads over a couple of folks who have been rumored as possible challengers. She has a 46-38 edge over former US Attorney Tim Griffin and leads state senator Gilbert Baker 48-37. Baker and Griffin are both largely unknown to the state’s voters and their numbers can probably be viewed as those of the generic Republican opponent to Lincoln."

Republican Burr Looking Vulnerable in 2010 NC Senate Race

Posted Apr 02, 2009 at 1:51 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

The Republican incumbent US Senator in North Carolina, Richard Burr, is looking vulnerable in his 2010 reelection effort. According to a recent poll by Public Policy Polling, "Burr continues to have approval ratings worse than Elizabeth Dole’s at the same point in the election cycle two years ago as he prepares to run for reelection in 2010, the newest survey from Public Policy Polling finds. 35% of voters in the state approve of the job Burr is doing, with 32% disapproving. Dole’s numbers were 43%/31% around this time in 2007. Burr leads Secretary of State Elaine Marshall 43%-35% in a hypothetical contest. Dole led Marshall 46%-35% during the period Democrats were recruiting a candidate two years ago. Even after more than ten years in statewide office and a 2002 Senate campaign, more than half of the voters in the state don’t hold any opinion about Elaine Marshall in an either positive or negative direction. 28% of voters have a positive view of her, 19% a negative one, and 53% have no opinion. Tested against a generic Democratic candidate, Burr leads 42-38. That number is somewhat misleading though as 22% of Democrats, unsure who their nominee will be, say they are undecided while only 12% of Republicans report the same."

A recent poll by conservative-leaning think tank Civitas Institute conducted March 16 to 19 "confirmed what many others have found - Burr continues to struggle with name recognition. Fifty percent of registered voters told Civitas they either has no opinion or were unaware of the first-term Republican senator. That is down from 54% when Civitas asked the same question in January. Thirty-seven percent held a favorable opinion of Burr in the most recent poll, which held steady from January. The Civitas poll also showed Burr trailing Democratic Attorney General Roy Cooper 41% to 38% in a hypothetical match-up."

PollTrack makes one observation: with a very popular Barack Obama at the head of the ticket in 2008, Democratic voter groups turned out in very healthy numbers. With Obama not a factor on the 2010 ballot, will Democrats turn out with the same intensity?

Chris Matthews Out For 2010 PA Senate

Posted Mar 25, 2009 at 1:30 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

The New York Times reports that democrat Chris Matthews will not be running against incumbent Republican Pennsylvania Senator Arlen Specter in 2010. The Times reports that "Matthews, the usually garrulous host of Hardball on MSNBC, has quietly signed a new long-term contract to remain with the cable network through the next election, signaling that he had quit entertaining any plans to run for a Senate seat.The deal is for at least four years. Financial terms were not disclosed, and neither side would confirm whether MSNBC had won a reduction in salary for the host, as it had been reported to be seeking. Previous reports put his annual salary at about $5 million."

Gillibrand Handily Defeats Republican Peter King in 2010 NY Senate Race; Tied With Former Gov. Pataki

Posted Mar 24, 2009 at 2:05 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

A new Siena Research Institute poll indicates that incumbent New York Democrat Kirstin Gillibrand would handily defeat Republican congeessman Peter King in her 2010 reelection bid, but that former Republican Governor George Pataki would present a far more difficult challenge. If the election were held now, Sen. Gillibrand would handily defeat Rep. King (R-NY), 47% to 23%. However, Gillibrand would face a tough challenge if former New York Gov. George Pataki (R) chooses to run: the two are currently tied at 41%.

Ohio US Senate: Democrats Look Good For 2010

Posted Mar 23, 2009 at 2:15 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

According to a new Quinnipiac University survey, the race for the Democratic nomination to seek the Ohio seat of retiring Republican Sen. George Voinovich is "a wide-open affair" while, on the GOP side, former Rep. Rob Portman holds a significant lead: "In general election match-ups, the Democrats come out ahead of the Republicans." For the Democrats, Lt. Gov. Lee Fisher leads at 18%, followed by Secretary of State Jennifer Brunner at 14% and Rep. Tim Ryan at 12%. As for the Republicans, Portman leads State Auditor Mary Taylor 31% to 14% with 52% undecided. The general election match-ups: Fisher leads Portman 41% to 33% with 24% undecided and Taylor by 41% to 31% with 25% undecided. Brunner bests Portman 39% to 34% with 25% undecided and Taylor by 38% to 31% with 28% undecided.

MN US Senate Recount: Coleman Says Not Over Even if Franken Is Certified

Posted Mar 20, 2009 at 3:04 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

Even if the three-judge panels moves to certify Democrat Al Franken as the winner of November's US Senate race, Republican Norm Coleman may not give up. The Minneapolis Star Tribune reports that the race may be far from over: "Top Republicans are encouraging Coleman to be as litigious as possible and take his fight all the way to the U.S. Supreme Court if he loses this round, believing that an elongated court fight is worth it if they can continue to deny Democrats the 59th Senate seat that Franken would represent. And in pushing a possible Supreme Court conclusion, Republicans are raising case history that makes Democrats shudder: Bush v. Gore. Coleman’s team says the different methods Minnesota counties use for counting absentee ballots violated the Constitution’s equal protection clause — echoing the same 2000 Florida recount case that effectively handed the presidency to George W. Bush. By making a constitutional case, Republicans are already looking ahead to federal court."

PA Demographics Imperil Incumbent GOP Senator

Posted Mar 19, 2009 at 12:40 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

Incumbent US Senator Arlen Specter has a new challenge in Pennsylvania: the state's shifting demographics. According to election data tabulated by Roll Call, his once reliable suburban Philadelphia base "has seen the sharpest drop in Republican registrations in the state -- numbers that collectively exceed his margin of victory over Pat Toomey in the 2004 Republican primary. . . . A simultaneous spike in Democratic enrollment likely means that moderate Republicans switched their registrations over the past four years. The result is bad math for Specter, who will likely face a more conservative GOP electorate in the 2010 primary than he did in 2004."

Democratic US Senator Chris Dodd Appears Vulnerable in 2010

Posted Mar 11, 2009 at 2:06 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

The latest poll numbers in Connecticut suggerst that incumbent US Senator Chris Dodd may be in trouble in his 2010 election bid. As Time Magazine reports, "Dodd is looking increasingly vulnerable. The silver-haired father of two young girls is facing his toughest re-election fight ever, and he doesn't even have an opponent yet. (CNBC pundit Larry Kudlow and former GOP Representative Rob Simmons have both expressed interest in running.) In a January Quinnipiac poll, 51% of Connecticut voters said they would not vote for Dodd in 2010. 'It's the subject matter — people are watching their tax dollars go into institutions and they wonder when it's going to get better and they wonder where it's going," Dodd says. "I don't find people trying to elbow me out of the way trying to take over jurisdiction of the Banking Committee.'"

Re-vote in Minnesota?

Posted Mar 10, 2009 at 2:06 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

Voters in Minnesota, growing weary of the seemingly endless election process for the US Senate, are split of the prospect of a revote, according to the Minneapolis Star Tribune, which reports on a new that shows a scant plurality--46% of likely voters in the state--favor a re-vote in the race between Republican Norm Coleman and Democrat Al Franken. 44% oppose a new vote, a statistical dead heat, given the poll's margin of error of 4.5 percentage points: "Earlier this week, in the midst of the continuing recount trial Coleman questioned whether the three judges presiding in the trial will ultimately be able to decide who won the election. However, his lawyers stopped short of asking the judges to order a new election."

The Tribune continues: "Given the recount results that gave Franken a 225-vote lead and Coleman's failure so far to substantially expand the pool of votes, Republicans in the state look more favorably on a revote than Democrats do.Among self-identified Republicans, 71 percent support a do-over, while 69 percent of Democrats are opposed. Among independent voters, a revote is supported by just 12 percent."

MN Three-Judge Panel Rules Franken Cannot Be Certified As Winner

Posted Mar 09, 2009 at 2:21 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

In the latest move in the endless Minnesota US Senate post-election recount, the Minnesota Supreme Court on Friday refused Al Franken's request to be immediately certified as winner of the U.S. Senate election, saying that step "must await a final resolution of the long-running recount trial and possible appeals." The Minneapolis Star Tribune reports that "even as the high court issued its ruling, Franken's lawyers received a sympathetic hearing in their attempt to throw out Republican Norm Coleman's legal challenge of Franken's 225-vote recount margin. In a 5-0 decision, the Supreme Court ruled that DFLer Franken was not entitled to be certified as the election winner until the legal contest has made its way through the state courts. The justices said state law blocks an election certificate from being issued until then."

PA GOP Senator Arlen Specter Lagging In Popularity

Posted Mar 06, 2009 at 1:28 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

According to a new poll, GOP US Senator Arlen Specter from Pennsylvania may be the latest northeast Republican in danger of loosing his seat: "53% of Pennsylvanians -- and 66 percent of Republicans -- want someone to replace Specter. "Asked whether they think Specter, a Philadelphia Republican, has done his job well enough to win re-election or whether they'd prefer a 'new person' in that job, registered voters by a 53-38% said it's time to give someone else a chance, according to the poll by Susquehanna Polling and Research. 8% were undecided."

 

Minnesota Recount: Court Hands Coleman Big Setback

Posted Feb 26, 2009 at 1:18 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

The three-judge panel reviewing the results of the US Senate recount in Minnesota has handed Republican Norm Cokeman a big setback. The Minneapolis Star Tribune reports: "Ballots that Norm Coleman wants to count took a beating in testimony on Tuesday, while ballots he thinks are illegal were protected by the judges hearing the U.S. Senate trial. In the latest in a series of setbacks for Coleman, the three-judge panel refused to preserve identifying marks on counted absentee ballots that he claims have been rendered illegal by recent rulings of the court. The decision hampers the ability of Coleman, a Republican, to challenge ballots tallied in the final phase of the recount, when DFL Al Franken took a 225-vote lead."

Buris Not Resigning As Illinois Senate, But Also Will Not Run in 2010

Posted Feb 25, 2009 at 1:20 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

According to a report in the Chicago Sun Times, embattled Sen. Roland Burris (D-Ill.) met with Sen. Dick Durbin (D-Ill.) on Tuesday afternoon and delivered two distinct messages: "he will not resign in the wake of the controversy surrounding his appointment by the ousted Gov. Blagojevich and he will not run for the seat in 2010. Burris has finally realized that not seeking election next year is the least price he will pay."

FL Republican Gov. Christ Well Situated For Either 2010 Reelection or US Senate Run

Posted Feb 24, 2009 at 1:56 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

According to a new Quinnipiac University poll, incumbent Republican Governor Charlie Crist is well situated for either reelection or a US Senate run in 2010. He would be heavily favored to win the GOP nomination for U.S. Senate and beats a generic Democrat handily in a general election match up, 48% to 25%. However, a plurality of respondents want Crist to remain as governor with 57% favoring his re-election.

Republicans Urging Former NY Governor Pataki To Run For Senate In 2010

Posted Feb 23, 2009 at 1:11 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

According to the local TV news station, NY1, "a spokesman for former Governor George Pataki says he has met with a top Senate Republican, as rumors swirl that the party is pushing him to run for Senate. The Associated Press is reporting that during the visit, Senator John Cornyn of Texas approached Pataki about running in 2010 for the seat held by Democrat Kirsten Gillibrand. Gillibrand was appointed just last month by Governor David Paterson, after Hillary Clinton vacated the seat to be secretary of state. Pataki is working for a private law practice and has not commented on the possibility of returning to public life."

Situation Looking Good For Democrat Al Franken In Minnesota Recount

Posted Feb 20, 2009 at 1:04 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

Things are looking up for Democrat Al Franken in the Minnesota recount post-game. As Politico reports on its website: Does Republican norm Coleman have any real chance of retaining his Senate seat? The answer, "according to state political and legal analysts, is that it would take a miracle. Miracles do happen in politics — but four weeks into a court case that will decide the winner of Minnesota’s tortured Senate race, the GOP incumbent is facing just-about-insurmountable hurdles to overcome the 225-vote deficit he was saddled with at the end of the official recount. The court itself has not yet counted a single vote. Instead, a three-judge panel is considering a pool of disputed ballots and steadily ruling which are legitimate and should be counted, and which should be thrown out. Coleman wants most of the ballots included, believing they will tilt the election in his favor."

"But so far, the court’s decisions favor the Democratic challenger, comedian and author Al Franken, experts say. And that trend is expected to continue. 'Norm Coleman’s life support system is slowly weakening,' said Larry Jacobs, director of the University of Minnesota’s Center for the Study of Politics and Governance. The latest blow came Friday, when the judges considered 19 different categories of rejected absentee ballots and ruled that 12 of the categories had to be thrown out. That lowered the number of absentee ballots eligible for inclusion from about 4,800 to around 3,300 — down from about 12,000 at the beginning of the trial."

illinois Democrats Do Not Prefer Burris In 2010

Posted Feb 19, 2009 at 1:15 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

A new Chicago Tribune poll reports that more Illinois voters want to see Democratic Lt. Gov. Pat Quinn run for Senate in 2010 than newly-appointed Democrat Sen. Roland Burris. 48% of registered voters would like to see Quinn run, 15% do not want him to run and 37% are undecided. Voters want Burris to run by a narrower margin--37% to 33%, with 29% undecided.

Both New Governor and Senator in NY Trail Democratic Rivals

Posted Feb 18, 2009 at 1:27 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

A new Quinnipiac University survey reveals that "both Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand (D-NY) and the man who appointed her, Gov. David Paterson (D) trail Democratic primary challengers in 2010. Attorney General Andrew Cuomo (D) trounces Paterson, 55% to 23%, in a possible gubernatorial primary. And Rep. Carolyn McCarthy (D-NY) beats Gillibrand in a Democratic U.S. Senate primary, 34% to 24%, with 39% still undecided. Quinnipiac observes: "The Caroline Kennedy mix-up still haunts Gov. David Paterson... Three quarters of New Yorkers heard about the nasty news leaks. They think Kennedy was treated unfairly, but most don't blame Paterson for the leaks."

Republican PA Senator Specter Taking A Hit For His Support of Stimulus Package

Posted Feb 17, 2009 at 1:39 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

Senator Arlen Specter of Pennsylvania was one of three Republicans to support the stimulus package now making its way through Congress. His support appears to hurt him with many voters in the state, a possible problem for his 2010 reeelection effort. Tatest Rasmussen Reports survey in Pennsylvania roports that just 31% voters say are more likely to vote for Specter because of his position on the stimulus package while 40% are less likely to do so."

Court Rules Against Coleman in MN, Big Setback For Republican

Posted Feb 16, 2009 at 1:54 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

The Minneapolis Star Tribune reports that the three-judge panel evaluating the recount of the Minnesota US Senate race has made a major ruling against Republican Norm Coleman: Dealing a blow but not a knockout to Coleman's hopes, the judges "tossed out most of the 19 categories of rejected absentee ballots they were considering for a second look, making it clear that they won't open and count any ballots that don't comply with state law. On its face, the ruling looked to be a victory for DFLer Al Franken, whose lawyers had urged the judges to turn down 17 of the 19 categories and said Friday that they had very nearly done it. But Coleman's attorneys saw it differently, saying that the ruling leaves untouched about 3,500 of the 4,800 rejected absentee ballots they want the court to open and count, enough to make it possible for Coleman to overcome Franken's 225-vote certified recount lead."

 

Republican Gov. Christ Early Favorite in 2010 FL US Senate Race

Posted Feb 13, 2009 at 1:50 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

Political Wire reports that a soon to be released Strategic Vision poll in Florida shows Gov. Charlie Crist (R) the runaway favorite in the 2010 U.S. Senate race should he decide to run: "Among Democrats, Rep. Ron Klein leads the pack with 12%, followed by Rep. Kendrick Meek at 10% and 66% still undecided. Among Republicans, Crist leads the field with 54% support, followed by Rep. Connie Mack at 14%. In general election match ups, Crist beats each of the Democrats by more than 25 points, though pollster David Johnson suggests name recognition is the key factor at this point in the cycle."

PA Republican US Senator Arlen Specter Highly Vulnerable in His 2010 Reelection Bid

Posted Feb 12, 2009 at 2:10 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

Pennsylvania Republican US Senator appears to be highly vulnerable in his upcoming 2010 reelection bid. When Pennsylvania voters were asked in a new Quinnipiac survey if Sen. Arlen Specter (R-PA) deserves re-election, 40% said yes while 43% said no.

Minnesota US Senate Recount: Franken Asks Court To Instate Him, Now

Posted Feb 06, 2009 at 12:44 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

The Minneapolis Star Tribune reports that lawyers for Democrat Al Frenken asked Minnesota's highest court on Thursday to certify him as the winner of his tight Senate race with Republican Norm Coleman without waiting for the outcome of his rival's legal challenge: The court "heard oral arguments on Franken's request for a certificate of election now, at least on an interim basis, so that Minnesota's empty seat can be filled without waiting the months it may take for the courts to resolve Coleman's separate lawsuit over the recount, which gave Franken a 225-vote advantage. The justices took the case under advisement and didn't say when they might rule, but their many questions suggested they were skeptical of Franken's arguments."

Minnesota US Senate Recount: Court Rules In Coleman's Favor

Posted Feb 04, 2009 at 2:07 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

The endless Minnesota Senate race may not be over, after all. The three-judge panel reviewing the recount ruled on Tuesday that nearly 4,800 rejected absentee ballots may be reconsidered in the U.S. Senate recount trial. According to the Minneapolis Star Tribune,"the court granted Democrat Al Franken’s request to limit the universe of ballots that Republican Norm Coleman can seek to have counted, rejecting Coleman’s attempt to have about 11,000 rejected absentee ballots reconsidered. But Franken had asked the judges to limit the review to only the 650 ballots cited by Coleman when he filed his lawsuit last month challenging the recount. With Franken holding a 225-vote lead after the recount results were certified, the 4,800 ballots that may be reconsidered would appear to be enough to put the ultimate outcome in doubt. The court order indicates that any of the ballots that complied with state law should be counted, along with those where errors occurred through no fault of the voter."

New Yorkers Down On Paterson's Handling Of Senate Replacement

Posted Jan 30, 2009 at 1:29 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

A new Siena College poll finds that a majority of New York voters think Gov. David Paterson did just a fair or poor job filling the state's U.S. Senate vacancy. The polls reports that 33% of voters thought he did a fair job, while 29% thought it was poor. Only 27% said the process was good, and 6% rated it excellent. The poll is the first since the Kennedy leaks and Paterson's selection of Rep. Kirsten Gillibrand.

Minnesota Voters Ask Court To Count Their Ballots

Posted Jan 29, 2009 at 1:46 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

Minnesota voters appealed to a state court panel in Minnesota to count their absentee ballots: They testified that their ballots had been "unfairly rejected as Republican Norm Coleman argued thousands of disqualified absentee ballots should be counted in the U.S. Senate race. 'Perhaps my signature is not as good as it once was," Gerald Anderson, of St. Paul, told the three-judge panel hearing Coleman's lawsuit. "It gets cloudy and crooked. I am 75 years old.' But that shouldn't have disqualified his vote, he said: 'I want it back. I'm entitled to my vote.' A statewide recount gave Democrat Al Franken a 225-vote edge. The personal stories that Anderson and five other voters told are just one front on Coleman's effort to have more votes counted. Coleman's legal team had intended to submit copies of thousands of ballots as exhibits, but the judges disqualified them as evidence Monday because campaign workers had marked on some envelopes. On Tuesday, much of the panel's time was spent with state officials, lawyers and court staff working out a plan to get about 11,000 rejected absentees to St. Paul from counties throughout the state. Actual testimony didn't begin until afternoon in the case, expected to last weeks."

Minnesota Recount Now In The Hands Of The Court

Posted Jan 27, 2009 at 1:11 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

According to the Minneapolis Star Tribune, "a three-judge panel will begin what could be a weeks- or months-long trial to decide who won Minnesota's U.S. Senate race. The action starts at 1 p.m.in St. Paul. The judges -- from St. Cloud, Minneapolis and Thief River Falls -- are largely unknown outside their community's legal circles. The three now will hear testimony and inspect evidence on the recount, which ended three weeks ago when the Canvassing Board certified results showing DFLer Al Franken with a 225-vote lead over Republican Norm Coleman. The judges already have shown each side their capacity for firm action. On Thursday, they rejected Franken's motion to dismiss the lawsuit. The next day, they swept aside Coleman's request to have inspectors fan out across the state in search of problem ballots."

Court Rejects Franken Bid

Posted Jan 23, 2009 at 4:09 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

Yesterday, a three-judge panel has refused Democrat Al Franken's request to block a lawsuit filed by Reoublican incumbent senator Norm Coleman over the Minnesota Senate recount outcome. Franken won the recount by 225 votes. The dismissal allows the trail to move forward on Monday.

NY US Senate: Patterson Appoints Gillibrand

Posted Jan 23, 2009 at 2:11 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

Confirming PollTrack's report yesterday, New York govenor David Psterson has selected a 42-year-old congresswoman from upstate who is known for bold political moves and centrist policy positions, to fill the United States Senate seat vacated by Hillary Clinton, according to report in the New York Times this morning based on a conversation with an aide to the governor: "The governor will announce his selection at noon in Albany. An aide to Ms. Gillibrand confirmed that she had accepted the appointment. Ms. Gillibrand is largely unknown to New Yorkers statewide, but is considered an up-and-coming and forceful lawmaker in her district and has gained considerable attention from Democratic leaders in Washington."

NY US Senate: Gillibrand Emerges As Frontrunner

Posted Jan 22, 2009 at 4:17 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

According to NBC News, "Rep. Kirsten Gillibrand (D-N.Y.) has emerged as the frontrunner for Hillary Clinton’s Senate seat after Caroline Kennedy dropped out of contention last night . . . Paterson had a conversation with Gillibrand Wednesday morning, [New York governor has her on his short list of contenders for the seat]. Gillibrand, a second-term congresswoman from upstate New York, has a resume that would please the Clintons. She served as a special counsel for the Department of Housing and Urban Development (under Andrew Cuomo!) in former President Clinton’s administration, and helped raise money for Hillary Clinton’s Senate campaigns in New York. Gillibrand would be a savvy political choice, as well. She has twice won election in one of the most Republican Congressional districts in New York, handily defeating her GOP opponent with 62 percent of the vote last year. She has assiduously courted the local officials in her district, almost all of whom are Republican."

Minnesota Recount: Franken Takes Coleman To Court

Posted Jan 22, 2009 at 1:51 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

More news in the endless Minnesota US Senate recount: Al Franken asked a three-judge panel on Tuesday to dismiss Norm Coleman's lawsuit challenging a recount that left him trailing Franken by 225 votes: Democrat Franken's legal team argued "that Minnesota law and the U.S. Constitution prevent Coleman, a Republican, from waging an exhaustive review of the recount that was certified by the state Canvassing Board and give the U.S. Senate power to fill the seat. Coleman says state law permits a court challenge to press his claims of widespread voting irregularities, including assertions that absentee ballots from Republican-leaning areas were wrongly rejected and that ballots in DFL areas were counted twice."

NY US Senate: Post Reports That Caroline Kennedy Has Withdrawn

Posted Jan 21, 2009 at 12:10 PM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

The New York Post this evening reports that Caroline Kennedy "tonight withdrew her name from consideration to replace Hillary Clinton in the U S Senate after learning that Gov. David Paterson wasn't going to choose her, The Post has learned. Kennedy's decision removes the highest-profile name in the ring to step into Clinton's now-vacant seat, as she departs after getting confirmed today as President Obama's Secretary of State."

NY US Senate: Gov Paterson Has Apparently Made Decision

Posted Jan 21, 2009 at 3:03 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

According to the New York Daily News, Democratic Governor David Paterson had made a decision concerning a replacement for US Senator Hillary Clinton who will soon be confirmed as US Secretary of State: "Sources close to Paterson say they believe Caroline Keenedy is still the front-runner - despite the fact the governor has recently been talking up Rep. Kirsten Gillibrand (D-Hudson). 'I have a good idea now which direction I want to go," said Paterson. Despite the national anticipation, Paterson said he will wait a few more days before making an announcement. 'I thought that with something this serious - that when I came to a point of view - that I wouldn't react to it immediately," he said. "I thought I would see if it feels the same way [tomorrow] ... as it did, I guess toward the end of [Monday] afternoon when I think I started to come to a point of view.' Paterson's process has left many befuddled in recent days as he has seemingly swung from one position to another."

NY POST: Caroline Kennedy To Be Paterson's Pick For US Senate

Posted Jan 19, 2009 at 6:16 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

According to the New York Post, Caroline Kennedy will be Gov. David Paterson's pick to replace outgoing US Senator Hillary Clinton. The Post reports: "Despite claims that he's still undecided, Gov. Paterson is 'certain' to pick Caroline Kennedy to replace Hillary Rodham Clinton in the US Senate, several unhappy contenders for the job have told friends and associates in recent days. The contenders based their conclusion on the view that Paterson, after nearly two months of indecision, would "greatly embarrass" and "entirely humiliate" Kennedy, anger her prominent political family and even offend President-elect Barack Obama by picking someone other than President John F. Kennedy's daughter."

New Yorkers Solidly Favor Cuomo (Not Kennedy) To Replace Clinton In US Senate

Posted Jan 15, 2009 at 2:39 PM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

According to a new Marist poll, New York voters solidly support NY State attorney General Andrew Cuomo over Caroline Kennedy for the US Senate seat being vacated by Hillary Clinton. These numbers are a sharp reversal of several earlier polls. Indeed, the most recent statewide polling universally indicates a sharp erosion of support for Kennedy. Marist writes that 40% of registered voters in New York State want Gov. David Paterson to appoint Cuomo; another 25% believe Caroline Kennedy would be the better choice. A month ago, the same poll showed the two in a virtual tie, with 25% support for each.

Minnesota Recount: Coleman Proposes Staging Of Lawsuits

Posted Jan 15, 2009 at 3:57 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

The Minneapolis Star Tribune reports that the end may be near in the seemingly endless Minnesota US Senate recount: "In the first sign that Coleman might cut short his challenge of the Senate recount, his campaign proposed that his lawsuit be conducted in stages. The proceedings would continue through all the stages only if he gains enough votes to show he could emerge the winner. In a court filing, Coleman's lawyers suggested that the trial's first phase begin Feb. 9. The campaign downplayed the significance of the announcement and did not elaborate on how many votes Coleman would have to gain during each stage in order to proceed."

Minnesota US Senate Recount: Coleman (r) Not Giving Up

Posted Jan 12, 2009 at 4:57 PM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

In a sign that the Minnesota US Senate race may not be over--but most probably still will end with Democratic challenger Al Franken assuming the seat--the legal team of Republican incumbent Norm Coleman "has begun pressing some Minnesota counties for documents on hundreds of thousands of ballots that were not previously disputed. The lawsuit that Coleman filed last week to erase DFLer Al Franken's 225-vote lead cites a few dozen specific ballot errors that he says favored Franken. But Coleman's camp is also now casting a much wider net for other mistakes that could cost Franken votes." According to the Minneapolis Star Tribune, the Coleman team rests much of its case on 654 absentee ballots that local officials rejected for not complying with state law. "Coleman wants the three-judge panel that will hear his lawsuit to include those ballots, most of which come from rural and suburban areas favorable to Republicans."

Chris Matthews Unlikely to Challenge Specter in 2010

Posted Jan 08, 2009 at 5:53 PM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

According to PolitickerPA.com, Chris Matthew's brother Jim thinks the journalist and MSNBC anchor will not challenge incumbent Republican Pennsylvania Senator Arlen Specter in 2010: "'There is no hint of him running for office,' said Matthews . . . 'That's 1,000 percent true.' Jim Matthews, a Republican commissioner in Montgomery County, emphasized that it's his opinion -- he didn't hear it directly out of his brother's mouth. But he said his brother was very upbeat about returning to "Hardball" and already had a new contract offer in hand from the cable news network. I know there's been discussion about (a Senate run) ... but I would be stunned beyond words if he does anything besides but look forward tomorrow to going to work . . . I just think he's recharged.'" Yesterday, Chris Matthews echoed his brother's sentiment, telling his staff at MS NBC Hardball that he has NO intention of taking on Specter in 2010.

 

New Yorkers Growing Wary Of Kennedy

Posted Jan 05, 2009 at 10:41 PM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

A new Public Policy Polling survey reports that Caroline Kennedy’s popularity has taken a "major hit" as the result of her
public campaign to be appointed to Hillary Clinton’s Senate seat:
"44% of the state’s voters now say they have a lesser opinion of Kennedy than they did before she started vying for the position. 33% say it’s made no difference, and 23% report now having a more favorable opinion of her. A plurality of Democrats, Republicans, and independents all say that her efforts have caused them to view her less favorably. When it comes to whether they would prefer to see Kennedy or Andrew Cuomo appointed, 58% now prefer Cuomo to 27% for Kennedy." It looks like Kennedy's less than stellar debut as a political candidate--and the attendant negative press--has severely harmed her standing the the state. Still, several published reports say that she is likely to be named to the seat by NY Governor David Paterson.

Minnesota Canvassing Board Certifies Final Results: Democrat Franken by +225

Posted Jan 05, 2009 at 10:16 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

Via the Minneapolis Star Tribune: the Minnesota Canvassing Board certified final results this afternoon in the US Senate Race. But, as the paper warns of the endless recount, that won't end the battle between Democrat Al Franken and Republican Norm Coleman, whose Senate term ended on Saturday: "Moments after the board certified that Franken had eked out 225 more votes than Coleman, attorneys for Coleman said they would file a lawsuit within 24 hours."

Monnesota Supreme Court Rejects Coleman Petition

Posted Jan 05, 2009 at 5:45 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

The Minnesota Supreme Court has reject a bid by Republican incumbent Norm Coleman to "have hundreds of rejected absentee ballots considered in the U.S. Senate recount, apparently clearing the way for a state board to certify election results showing Democrat Al Franken on top — and also opening the door to a post-recount lawsuit that the Coleman campaign said 'is now inevitable.'" The state Canvassing Board is scheduled to meet this afternoon to review recount results.

Democrat Al Franken To Be Declared Winner in Minnesota Recount

Posted Jan 05, 2009 at 2:25 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

The Associated Press reports that Democratic challenger Al Franken will shortly be declared the winner over Republican incumbent Norm Coleman in the Minnesota US Senate recount. The state Canvassing Board is "posed to certify the results of the recount in Minnesota's grueling Senate election in Al Franken's favor — but that doesn't mean the race is definitely over. The board was to meet Monday and was expected to declare which candidate received the most overall votes from nearly 3 million ballots cast. The latest numbers showed Franken, a Democrat, with a 225-vote lead over Republican Sen. Norm Coleman. But after the announcement, there will be a seven-day waiting period before an election certificate is completed. If any lawsuits are filed during that waiting period, certification is conditional until the issue is settled in court."

MN Supreme Court To Rule On Disputed Absentee Ballots

Posted Jan 05, 2009 at 12:57 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

The Minneapolis Star Tribune reports that the Minnesota Supreme Court will soon rule on the question of whether to let the final stage of ballot tallying proceed or to redesign the process once more: As state officials completed their count of 953 disputed absentee ballots Saturday, "the court is expected to decide soon whether to instead open the door to a new centralized review of about 2,000 such ballots, as requested by Sen. Norm Coleman -- or at least order the review of hundreds of additional ballots identified by the Coleman and Al Franken campaigns." If Coleman should loose this decision, PollTrack believes that Democratic challenger Al Franken will inch much closer to victory in the disputed (and long-winded) race, now in its third month of post-game wrangling. The contest, no doubt, would still be far from over as the Star Tribune notes: "If the court refuses the Coleman request... he would likely lose the recount and immediately move to legally contest the state Canvassing Board's certification of final results."

Minnesota Recount: Al Franken Now Leads By +225 Votes

Posted Jan 03, 2009 at 3:45 PM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

Things are really looking up for Democratic challenger Al Franken in the US Senate recount in Minnesota. With the recount complete--and all outstanding absentee ballots tabulated--Franken has an unofficial lead of 225 votes over Republican incumbent Norm Coleman. Going into today's accounting of improperly discarded absentee ballots, Franken led unofficially by 49 votes. He gained a net 176 votes by Saturday evening. The Minneapolis Star Tribune observes:  "[Coleman's] term as a U.S. Senator ended at noon Washington time today, and by evening his hopes of winning a second term had been dealt an expected but serious setback as state officials counted previously rejected absentee ballots in St. Paul." The Republican's probable next step: the Minnesota Supreme Court.

Live Blogging On The Minneapolis Star Tribune Website

Posted Jan 03, 2009 at 9:07 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

For this of you who can't get enogh of the Minnesota US Senate Recount, the Minneapolis Star Tribune is blogging live, covering in meticulous detail the opening of 953 mistakenly rejected absentee ballots by the office of the Secretary of State that began morning in St. Paul. Click hear to follow the Live Blog.

Colorado US Senate: Michael Bennet to replace Ken Salazar

Posted Jan 02, 2009 at 8:20 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

The New York Times reports this afternoon that Governor Bill Ritter, Democrat of Colorado, is set to announce that he’s selected Denver Schools Superintendent Michael Bennet to replace Ken Salazar in the United States Senate. Senator Salazar, Democrat from Colorado, is up for confirmation to be the Secretary of the Interior. The Denver Post is reporting that Colorado Gov. Bill Ritter may make the announcement as early as this Saturday.

Clinton US Senate Replacement: Sources Say Paterson To Pick Kennedy

Posted Jan 02, 2009 at 4:39 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

According to the Associated Press, New York State officials with ties to Gov. David Paterson say the daughter of the late President John F. Kennedy will be the governor's choice to fill the New York Senate seat being vacated by Hillary Rodham Clinton. Still, Paterson cautions he's still looking.

Minnesota US Senate Recount: Franken (d) Lead Bumps Up To 49

Posted Jan 02, 2009 at 1:55 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

According to the Associated Press, Democratic challenger Al Franken's lead in the US Senate recount in Minnesota has officially bumped up to 49-votes over incumbent Reoublican Norm Coleman, after the Secretary of State's office updated its numbers Wednesday night.

Majority Of Americans Think Kennedy Is Qualified To Be US Senator

Posted Dec 31, 2008 at 12:53 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

According to a new CNN/Opinion Research poll, a majority of Americans believe that Caroline Kennedy is qualified to be a US senator. 52% percent said the daughter of President John F. Kennedy is qualified to serve; 42% said she is not qualified. According to CNN, Kennedy's numbers are "somewhat lower than for Hillary Clinton when she ran for the US Senate seat from New York. In a CNN/USA Today/Gallup survey, more than 60 percent of Americans said the former first lady was qualified." There is a gender gap in these results, as well: 57% of women believing Kennedy is qualified; only 47% of men agree, with 46% of male respondents saying Kennedy is not qualified. PollTrack wonders if these numbers will begin to shift way from Kennedy, possibly reflecting the increasingly negative reporting on her effort to replace Hillary Clinton as New York's junior senator, the growing chorus of state Democrats who question or reject her candidacy, and Kennedy's relatively poor communication with voters and her recent string of political missteps and blunders.

Minnesota Recount: Rejected Absentee Ballots Likely To Determine Outcome

Posted Dec 30, 2008 at 1:58 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

With only 46 votes (as of Monday afternoon) officially separating Democratic challenger (and leader) Al Franken from incumbent Repoublican Norm Coleman in the Minnesota US Senate runoff it could all come down to a little more than a thousand improperly rejected absentee ballots, writes the Minneapolis Star Tribune. The catch: Franken wants them all counted; Coleman does not. "In a letter sent Saturday morning to attorneys representing Sen. Norm Coleman, Franken campaign attorney David Lillehaug proposed accepting the list submitted Friday by county election managers, clearing the way for all the ballots to be opened and counted by next Sunday. " Coleman officials are hinting that they would prefer "a possibly contentious series of regional meetings throughout the state where counties and campaign representatives would have to resolve differences about which ballots to count." The never ending Minnesota recount continues with no clear path to victory for eith candidate.

Minnesota Recount: Republican Incumbent May Take Court Action

Posted Dec 29, 2008 at 4:05 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

As if the Minnesota US Senate recount has not delayed the outcome of the race for months, the campaign of Reoublican incumbent Norm Coleman threatens to take the matter to court in the wake of its lose in the Minnesota State Supreme Court. Politico reports that in response to the ruling, "the Coleman campaign signaled it will contest the final election results in court.   If that happens, the Senate race will continue to be disputed well into January and for perhaps even longer." Said Coleman attorney Fritz Knaak: “The decision by the Minnesota Supreme Court today virtually guarantees two things in this recount. One: it ensures that there will be an election contest because Minnesotans simply will not support an election as close as this being decided by some votes being counted twice . . . Two: this ensures that no certificate of election will be issued due to an election contest inevitably being filed, leaving Minnesota without two sitting United States Senators on January 6th."

Minnesota Recount: MN Supreme Court Rejects Coleman Petition

Posted Dec 28, 2008 at 5:23 PM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

More news in the never ending Minnesota US Senate recount between incumbent Republican Norm Coleman and Democratic challenger Al Franken. The Minnesota Supreme Court late Wednesday rejected a bid by Sen. Norm Coleman to "force the state Canvassing Board to consider his campaign's claim that some votes in strongholds of Al Franken (D) were counted twice," according to the Minneapolis Star Tribune. The order allows those disputed ballots to remain in the vote totals, at least for now. "We are deeply disappointed," said Coleman lawyer Fritz Knaak, declaring that the Supreme Court decision "virtually guarantees" that the election will be decided in a court contest and that Coleman's campaign is prepared to wage one. PollTrack believes that this decision may present an obstacle to Coleman. With current unofficial results giving Franken a 48-vote lead, and most ballots recounted, it may be difficlt for the Republican to make up the difference with just challenged absentee ballots remaining.

John Hickenlooper Is Top Choice of Colorado Voters To Replace Sen. Ken Salazar

Posted Dec 24, 2008 at 3:45 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

According to a Public Policy Polling survey, John Hickenlooper, the mayor of Denver, is the top choice of Colorado voters to replace Sen. Ken Salazar, recently picked as the incoming Secretary of the Interior. Still, the field of contenders still pretty open. In order of support, here are the poll's findings: Hickenlooper--23%; Rep. John Salazar (the senator's brother)--15%; House Speaker Andrew Romanoff--12%; former mayor and cabinet member Frederico Pena--11%; Rep. Diane Degette--8%; Rep. Ed Perlmutter--6%; Treasurer Cary Kennedy--2%. Hickenlooper is the top choice for Democrats, Republicans and independents, and polls strongest among White voters.

Hillary Clinton Replacement: New York Voters Split

Posted Dec 24, 2008 at 1:43 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

According to a new Quinnipiac University Poll, New York State voters split 40% to 41% on whether Caroline Kennedy is qualified to be a U.S. Senator, "but they expect by a 48% to 25% margin that Gov. David Paterson will name her to the Senate seat being vacated by Hillary Clinton, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today. Offered a choice, 33% of voters say Gov. Paterson should name Ms. Kennedy, while 29% say Attorney General Andrew Cuomo should get the nod. Another 4% pick Albany-area U.S. Rep. Kirsten Gillibrand, while 24% want someone else and 10% are undecided . . . Kennedy leads Cuomo 42% to 27% among New York City voters and ties Cuomo 30% to 30% among suburban voters, while Cuomo leads 31% to 27% among upstate voters. Men back Kennedy over Cuomo 32% to 27% while women back her 33% to 31%. Republicans prefer Cuomo 33% to 20% while Democrats back Kennedy 41% to 27% and independent voters back Cuomo 33% to 30%."

Minnesota Recount: Franken Lead At 48-Votes

Posted Dec 23, 2008 at 5:58 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

According to the Minneapolis Star Tribune, Democrat Al Franken's lead in the Minnesota US Senate recount is down to 48-Votes. Still, Franken maintains the lead in the recount for the first time since Election Day: "Today, the state Canvassing Board is scheduled to award votes from thousands of challenges that each candidate had filed against his opponent's ballots but later withdrew. A draft list Monday by the secretary of state's staff about how those votes should be allocated showed Franken leading by 48 votes. At the end of last week, he was up by 251, the first time since the Nov. 4 election that he had an advantage." Stay tuned . . .

Is Joe Lieberman (i) Vulnerable in Connection 2012?

Posted Dec 23, 2008 at 1:11 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

Connecticut voters are growing increasingly negative about Joe Lieberman, the Democrat turned-independent who endorsed Republican John McCain for president in this cycle. According to a new Quinnipiac Poll, BOTH of the state's "U.S. Senators get their lowest approval ratings ever, a negative 38% to 54% for Sen. Joseph Lieberman and a lackluster 47% to 41% for Sen. Christopher Dodd." Two questions: will Lieberman be vulnerable in 2012? And who will be his likely Dempcratic and Republican challengers. And will their split once, once again allow Lieberman to retain his seat. 

Minneapolis Star Tribune: Franken Now Takes The Lead at +251-Votes

Posted Dec 22, 2008 at 7:36 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

According to the Minneapolis Star Tribune, Democratic challenger Al Franken now leads incumbent Repoublican Norm Coleman by +251--a reversal of fortune in the Minnesota US Senate recount. Yet, as the Star Tribune note, the recount is by no means over, because all of the withdrawn challenges have yet to be allocated. Once these allocations are made, Franken’s lead will undoubtedly shrink, but by how much is uncertain. PollTrack notes that for the first time since the election ended on 4 November, Franken has assumed the lead by more than a few votes. Who will come out on top is anyone's guess, but things are looking brighter for the Democrat.

More US Senate Loses For Republicans in 2010?

Posted Dec 22, 2008 at 5:02 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

The inimitable Charlie Cook speculates that Republicans may once again be in for a rough ride in contest for US Senate seats in 2010. "If the playing field is level and no national dynamics are in play," Cook concludes, "Democrats should pick up a few more seats, but it's hard to think that national dynamics won't be at work, one way or another. New presidents often make missteps, and their honeymoons can end quickly. If that happens this time, a few of the vulnerable Republican seats would likely become less so, and a few of the Democratic seats that appear relatively safe would come into play." Yet, Cook wonders if downturn in enthusiasm for the Republican brand will continue to haunt the party in two years:
"If Republicans are still 8 or 9 points behind in party affiliation, if their 'brand' hasn't been repaired, and if they are still facing a competence gap -- an attribute they used to own -- this could be yet another very painful cycle for them."

Nationally Voters Are Skeptical About Caroline Kennedy For US Senate

Posted Dec 22, 2008 at 1:04 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

According to a new national survey, voters are skeptical of the idea of Caroline Kennedy replacing Hillary Clinton in the US Senate: Only 37% believe Caroline Kennedy is qualified to be in the U.S. Senate and only "16% say she would be considered as Hillary Clinton’s replacement if her last name wasn’t Kennedy." 67% have a favorable view of Kennedy; 23% have an unfavorable opinion. 37% say Kennedy is not qualified to serve in the Senate, with 26% undecided.PollTrack cautions that this is a national survey. The numbers for New York State voters vary depending upon the survey.

 

Democrat Attorney: More Franken Challenges Being Upheld

Posted Dec 19, 2008 at 4:39 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

In an observation that could have major repercussions in the Minnesota US Senate recount, Democrat Al Franken's lead attorney Marc Elias told the Minneapolis Star Tribune that more of Democratic challenges were being upheld than than those of Republican incumbent senator Norm Coleman: "When the recount is over and all the votes that were legally cast are counted, Al Franken will have won this election and will be declared the winner." Elias went on to claim that the shift in momentum towards Franken had "panicked the Coleman team into going to court to try to stop the counting of improperly rejected absentee ballots and asking the Canvassing Board not to count 150 ballots the senator's campaign claim were duplicated." Elias concluded that the Coleman campaign is engaging in a systematic "to prevent all the votes from being counted, for one reason and one reason only -- which is that they know that they are lying and that if all the votes are counted, they will lose this election. Coleman attorney Fritz Knaak denied Elias's accusation: "Mr. Elias has cast aspersions on our intentions from the beginning ... I understand his need to do that. That is not the case."

 

Minnesota US Senate Recount: Democrat Franken Pulls Ahead By A Few

Posted Dec 19, 2008 at 3:53 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

According to the New York Times, Democratic challenger Al Franken has pulled ahead of Republican incumbent Norm Coleman in the Minnesota US Senate recount, though it cations that the vote count was expected to remain in flux throughout the day: "Mr. Franken’s lead, which reached the high double-digits this morning, came as the board examined ballots challenged by Mr. Coleman’s team. But a spokesman for the Coleman campaign urged caution in putting too much stock in the temporary standings. 'While varying headlines and a flurry of different numbers will continue, we encourage everyone to just hang on until the process is finished,' said Coleman communications director Mark Drake. “When it is finished, Norm Coleman will still lead, and we believe, be re-elected to the United States Senate.'”

Democrat Franken Poised To Move Ahead, At Least Temporarily

Posted Dec 19, 2008 at 1:38 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

The Minneapolis Star Tribune reports that Democrat Al Franken picked up several hundred votes at Thursday's state Canvassing Board meeting, all but erasing the narrow unofficial lead that Republican Sen. Norm Coleman has maintained for weeks in the Minnesota US Senate recount. The Democrat, according to the paper, "seemed poised to move ahead today, at least temporarily, as the board rules on more challenged ballots." By the end of Thursday, Coleman clung to a two-vote lead. But Franken's reversal of fortune is far from conclusive: "Franken's surge Thursday was no real surprise, given that the large majority of ballot challenges typically fail. On the previous two days, when the board examined challenges from the Franken campaign, most were rejected and Coleman made gains." PollTrack notes that thousands of challenges have yet to be evakuated by the canvassing board--votes that could radically effect the outcome in ways that cannot yet be determined.

Minnesota US Senate Recount: Has The Tide Turned Towards Democrat Franken?

Posted Dec 18, 2008 at 6:56 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

According to one blog, things may be looking up for challenger, Democrat Al Franken in his effort to defeat the Republican incumbent Norm Coleman in the US Senate recount in Minnesota: "At the end of yesterday's review, Coleman's pendulum has reached it's apex. With all Franken's challenged now resolved, we turn tot he over 1000 Coleman challenges. If those ballots break the same way as Franken's challenges, that would result in an almost 500 vote differential. This virtually assures a Franken lead by the end of this phase of the process. A process that has been open, transparent, and respectful of the rule of law. I ironically, on the STRIB ballot challenge page, once all ballots are reviewed, it shows Franken winning by as much as 275 votes." Given the complexity of the recount process, it's hard to say whether this reading is accurate. But Franken seems to have some momentum on his side according to several recent evaluations of the recount.

Who Should Replace Clinton In US Senate: Two NY Polls Differ

Posted Dec 18, 2008 at 1:18 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

Two just released polls have contradictory results on the question of who should replace Democratic New York Junior Senator Hillary Clinton: According to a Siena College Poll, 26% say Gov. David Paterson should choose Attorney General Andrew Cuomo; 23% say Caroline  Kennedy. Limited just to Democrats, Cuomo was favored by 30 percent to 28 percent. According to Siena College, Cuomo leads in every region of the state. Kennedy leads among black and Latino voters and they tied among younger voters. A Public Policy Polling survey reports Kennedy as the top choice of Democrats by 44% to 23%. The margin was narrower upstate, where Kennedy leads 36% to 22%. She leads 45% to 25% in New York City; her strongest support in the suburbs where, with a 57% to 24% advantage over Cuomo.

Colorado US Senate: Another Special Election In 2010

Posted Dec 17, 2008 at 5:40 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

Colorado is the next state headed for a special election in 2010 to fill out the remainder of an incumbent Democratic US Senator's seat. With Colorado U.S. Sen. Ken Salazar soon to be appointed President-elect Barack Obama's Secretary of the Interior,  PollTrack wonders if the Democratic talent drain from the US Senate, which now includes seats from New York (Clinton), Illinois (Obama), Delaware (Biden), and possibly Colorado, could present problems for the party in retaining or gaining seats in a year where more than the expected number of Democrats would have to defend their seats.

Florida US Senate: Jeb Bush in 2010?

Posted Dec 17, 2008 at 1:14 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

Will Jeb Bush, former governor of Florida and younger brother of George W. Bush, run for the US Senate seat being vacated by Mel Martinez in 2010? Florida voters seem to think so according to a new poll: While president Bush is vastll unpopular in Florida, 78% of Florida voters say former Governor Jeb Bush is likely to run. 45% believe Bush is very likely to run and 33% say he is somewhat likely to do so.84% of Republicans believe he’ll run along with 79% of Democrats. Ca he win? Quite possibly: "Jeb Bush is viewed favorably by 60% of Florida voters, including 39% with a Very Favorable opinion. Forty percent (40%) offer a negative view, including 19% with a Very Unfavorable opinion. Favorable opinions are offered by 78% of Republicans, 46% of Democrats and 54% of those not affiliated with either major party."

"Virtual Canvassing Board": Slight Edge To Franken In Challened Ballots

Posted Dec 16, 2008 at 4:18 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

The Minneapolis Star Tribune decided to let the people decide the outcome of the endless Franken-Coleman US Senate recount in Minnesota. And it has concluded that Democrat Al Franken may have the edge when all challenged ballots are evaluated. By relying on a virtual "canvassing board" of more than 26,000 readers who examined at least some of them, the Star Tribune reports that "there appeared to be widespread consensus that Franken won slightly more disputes than Coleman, enough to theoretically erase the incumbent's narrow lead by late Monday . . . there is no assurance that partisans didn't distort the results. But large numbers of respondents from around the nation participated, and each of 15 respondents who viewed the largest number of disputed ballots gave Franken the edge by 3 to 5 percentage points. There was a broader consensus as well. Only 200 of the 6,500 ballots failed to draw a consensus from at least 75 percent of reviewers. Among the others, reviewers decided slightly more in favor of Franken." PollTrack must add hastility that these results are neither scientific nor skewed by the ferver of Franken partisans, thusthey appear a bit dubious. On the other hand, the Associated Press reports that its own analysis of challenged ballots would also appear to wipe out Coleman's 192-vote advantage. Stay tuned.

Minnesota Recount: Is A Franken (d) Victory Hidden in Challeged Ballots?

Posted Dec 16, 2008 at 1:12 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

The Associated Press reports in its analysis of the outstanding challenged ballots in the Minnesota US Senate recount that Al Franken could come out ahead after these votes are apportioned: the analysis of the 3,500 challenges remaining "found that nearly 300 wouldn't benefit either man because the voter clearly favored a third-party candidate or skipped the race . . . of the 3,500 challenged ballots that easily could be assigned, Franken netted 200 more votes than Coleman. But Coleman has withdrawn significantly fewer ballot challenges than Franken — that is, the pool of challenges that can now be awarded to Franken is larger, and both campaigns announced Sunday that they would withdraw more challenges" by this afternoon, Tuesday the 16th of December." Things could get very interesting in Minnesota.

Caroline Kennedy To Pursue Hillary Clinton Senate Seat

Posted Dec 15, 2008 at 6:13 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

Caroline Kennedy has decided to pursue" the U.S. Senate seat being vacated by Sen. Hillary Clinton, according to the New York Times:  "The decision came after a series of deeply personal and political conversations, in which Ms. Kennedy, who friends describe as unflashy but determined, wrestled with whether to give up what has been a lifetime of avoiding the spotlight . . . Ms. Kennedy has been making calls this morning to alert political figures to her interest... She has also hired Knickerbocker SKD, a prominent political consulting firm headed by Josh Isay, a former chief of staff to Sen. Charles Schumer, to advise her."

Minneapolis Star Tribune: Absentee Ballots Offer Biggest Headache in Recount

Posted Dec 15, 2008 at 4:58 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

The Minneapolis Star Tribune observes that it is the state's penchant for discarding absentee ballots that do not meet the letter of the law that has created the biggest stumbling block to completing the epic recount in the US Senate race between Republican incumbent Norm Coleman and his Democratic challenger, former comedian and writer, Al Franken: "Before this year's U.S. Senate race in Minnesota, rejected absentee ballots were almost as little known. Now, they've emerged as the biggest flaw in Minnesota's election system and may hold the key to finally resolving the contest between Republican Sen. Norm Coleman and DFLer Al Franken. But here and nationwide, the rejection of absentee ballots -- either because voters improperly filled out documents or because election officials erroneously spiked them -- is a problem that's long been hiding in plain sight. 'For years, people know some part of the [elections] system isn't working, but it flies under the radar screen because it doesn't cause problems until you have a situation like Florida in 2000 or Minnesota now," said Edward Foley, an election law expert at Ohio State University's law school. "Suddenly, it becomes a huge problem. Rejected absentee ballots are the new hanging chad.'" Indeed, Minnesota Deputy Secretary of State Jim Gelbmann estimates that more than 13% of rejected absentee ballots in the Senate race -- a number that could be as high as 1,580 -- were improperly set aside. For more on the absentee ballot fiasco in Minnesota click here. 

 

Minnesota Recount: Democrat Franken Scores Victories

Posted Dec 15, 2008 at 2:17 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

The endless Minnesota US Senate race recount saw a few rare victories for Democrat Al Franken on Friday. According to the Minneapolis Star Tribune, the state Canvassing Board "approved the use of Election Day results for 133 Minneapolis ballots that can't be found and also recommended that counties sort and count absentee ballots that were mistakenly rejected. But the five-member board revealed some fissures. That came when its two Supreme Court justices put the brakes on the apparent hopes of its two district judges to declare in advance that the board would accept the new results that include the previously rejected absentee votes." These actions help Franken in his quest to overturn Republican incumbent Norm Coleman's 192-vote lead at the end of the official hand recount. It remains unclear, though, who might be favored in the ballots now approved for inclusion by the Minnesota state Canvassing Board.

US Senate 2010: Incumbent Democrat Looks Safe In Colorado

Posted Dec 12, 2008 at 7:34 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

According a a new Research 2000/Daily Kos poll out this week, it looks like incumbent Democratic senator Ken Salazar is poised to win reeelection. In a hypothetical matchup with John Elway, former football megastar quarterback for the twice-winning Super Bowl Broncos, Salazar wins, 49% to 38%. Research 2000 notes: "The Colorado GOP bench is thin, and a lack of top-tier credible challenger means that Salazar, who isn't exactly the most popular senator ever (his 48-41 approval-disapproval rating is respectable, but nothing to boast about), may have a much easier time getting reelected than might otherwise have been the case."

Minnesota Recount: State Canvasing Board Meets Today

Posted Dec 12, 2008 at 1:27 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

With today's meeting of Minnesota's state canvassing board resolve the Franken-Coleman recount. MSNBC reports that the board will attempt to decide the fate of hundreds of improperly rejected absentee ballots, as well as 133 missing ballots in a Minneapolis precinct. So today's meeting could have a demonstrative effect on the state's contentious recount.

Chris Matthews NOT Running In Pennsylvania?

Posted Dec 11, 2008 at 2:54 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

According to Poltico, Chris Matthews is about to sign a new contract with MSNBC News. Does this make a run in 2010 against incumbent Reoublican senator Arlen Specter less likely? Probably, since retaining his job as a political commentaor would present a conflict of interest fot the journalist.

US Senate 2010: Incumbent NC Republican Vulnerable

Posted Dec 11, 2008 at 12:56 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

According to a new Public Policy Polling survey of registered voters in North Carolina, Republican incumbent US Senator Richard Burr is quite vulnerable in his reelection quest in 2010. In a hypothetical matchup with Democratic Attorney General Roy Cooper, Cooper leads Burr by a margin of 39% to 34%. The survey continues: "44% of the state’s voters approve of Cooper’s job performance with just 23% disapproving. Burr gets a 32% approval mark with 31% unhappy with his work as a Senator . . . This poll confirms what many people already thought: Roy Cooper is the strongest
potential Democratic opponent for Richard Burr in 2010,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “He is just as well known statewide as the incumbent Senator, and better liked. He would be quite a formidable candidate.”

Minnesota Recount: Franken Campaign Accuses State of "Voter Disenfranchisement"

Posted Dec 10, 2008 at 9:56 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

According to MSNBC, the Minnesota US Senate recount has a new set of accusations to ponder: the campaign of Democratic challenger Al Franken this afternoon has accused Minnesota election officials of "voter disenfranchisement." MSNBC reports:  "Franken spokesman Andy Barr showed reporters a video of voters whose ballots were thrown out due to technicalities, he said. Barr said some local elections officials made 'simple mistakes, human mistakes.' 'These are people, not abstractions,' attorney Mark Elias added. Meanwhile, Coleman campaign attorney Fritz Knaak sent a letter to the Elections Director of the City of Minneapolis stressing the weight he believes should be given to the hand-counted ballot."

Us Senate 2010: George Voinovich (R-OH) Faces Tough Reelection Battle

Posted Dec 10, 2008 at 7:10 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

In a sign that 2010 will not be easy for Republican incumbents, a new Quinnipiac poll reports that two-term Republican U.S. Sen. George Voinovich faces a tough reelection fight in 2010, with 36 percent wanting to give him another term and 35 percent backing an unnamed Democratic candidate, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today . . . Voinovich, who has been a fixture in Ohio politics since winning the first of two terms as Governor in 1990, would have a potentially more difficult challenge for a third term in the U.S. Senate in 2010. Only 44 percent of voters, including a lukewarm 54 percent of Republicans, say he deserves to be reelected.

Who Do NY Voters Favor For Hillary Clinton's Senate Seat?

Posted Dec 10, 2008 at 5:34 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

A new Public Policy Polling survey suggests that Caroline Kennedy has the inside track with New York state voters to replace Hillary Clinton in the US Senate: "44% say she’s their top choice, with another 24% saying she’s their second choice from a list of potential candidates. The only other potential appointee to break double figures is Attorney General Andrew Cuomo, who was the top pick for 23% of respondents and the second with 35%. The other six candidates polled, including four members of Congress
and two prominent local government officials, were the favored choice with anywhere from 3 to 6% of those surveyed." But a just released Marist poll would appear to contradict these numbers, indicating a tie between Cuomo and Kennedy--25% to 25%--with 26% undecided and another 24% going to other candidates.

Election 2010: Republicans In Better Shape Than in 2008 Defending Senate Seats

Posted Dec 10, 2008 at 1:59 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

According to CQ Politics, the Repiblican senate campaign still has an uphill battle in 2010, but the party is in better shape than in 2008 when it was forced to defend many more seats than the Democrats: In 201, "the GOP will not have the kind of steeply slanted playing field it had to deal with this year. In the flip side of the party’s successes in its better times of 2002, the Republicans ended up defending 23 seats to the Democrats’ 12. That would have made it hard for them to hold their ground, even if the overall political atmosphere had not been so toxic. The slate of regularly scheduled 2010 races gives the Republicans another defensive chore, though it was not nearly as big: 19 Republican-held seats are scheduled to be up that year to 15 Democratic-held seats. Special elections will narrow the margin further, to 19-17, because of picks President-elect Barack Obama has made for his White House team from among his former Democratic Senate colleagues." 

Minnesota Recount: Coleman (r) Retracts 475 Challenged Ballots

Posted Dec 09, 2008 at 7:13 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

On the heels of Al Franken's retraction of ballots earlier challenged by his campaign, representatives of the campasign of Republican incumbent Norm Coleman have made a retraction offer of their own, withdrawing 475 challenged ballots, according to campaign attorney Fritz Knaack . . . "We've gotten a positive gesture from the Franken campaign," Knaack said, "and we want to respond in kind."

Minnesota Recount: Franken (d) Retracts More Challenges

Posted Dec 09, 2008 at 4:58 AM
Maurice Berger, PollTrack Poltical Director

With Republican Norm Coleman holding a 192-lead in the Minnesota US Senate recount, Democratic challeger Al Franken has decided to retract a number of ballots he had previously challenged. According to USA Today, "Franken is pulling back another 425 of the ballots he's challenging . . . bringing the total he's retracted to more than 1,000. His campaign challenged almost 3,300 ballots during the recount of 2.9 million ballots cast in the election, but last week he started canceling them by the hundreds. He's now repealed nearly one third . . . Coleman's campaign has announced it would give up 650 challenges, leaving him with 2,750."

Caroline Kennedy To Replace Clinton: May Not Be A Good Fit

Posted Dec 09, 2008 at 2:17 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

How game is Caroline Kennedy for a nearly endless stream of campaigning across the geographically diverse and enormous expanse of New York state? If she becomes New York's next US Senator--via appointed by Democratic Govener David Paterson--she would have to do just that. She would need to win election outright in 2010 to serve the remainder of Hillary Clinton's unexpired term. Then, she'd have to run again in 2012 . . . for reelection. The notoriously private Kennedy may find the prospect of nonstop campaigning a daunting, if not impossible task. Thus a report out yesterday in the New York Post: "The odds of Gov. Paterson choosing Caroline Kennedy . . .  are no better than 20-1, a source close to the governor said yesterday. The source was responding to news that Sen. Ted Kennedy, Robert F. Kennedy Jr. and other family members have been pushing hard for Caroline to replace Clinton. 'It looks to me like [Caroline's cousin] Bobby Kennedy may be trying to push Caroline more than Caroline is pushing herself," a Paterson administration source told The Post.'" Stay tuned. 

Minnesota Recount: Envelop With Missing Ballots Found In Minneapolis

Posted Dec 08, 2008 at 7:11 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

According to The Uptake, election workers in Minneapolis Election Warehouse have found an envelope with less than 20 uncounted ballots.  The ballots may be from Minnesotans serving overseas in the US Military." Alas, the envelope does not contain the 133 ballots missing from Ward 3 Precinct 1. These ballots, in the Dinkytown area--including the University of Minnesota--may be helpful to Democratic challenger Al Franken, though probably not enough to overcome Coleman's lead.  The Minnesota Secretary of State "has ordered the recount on that precinct be held open so workers can search for those ballots."

Minnesota Recount: Republican Coleman Winning The Expectations Game

Posted Dec 08, 2008 at 1:39 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

With three separate vote counts now virtually complete in the Minnesota US Senate race (save for a handful of precincts and a little more than a hundred missing ballots), Republican incumbent Norm Coleman can boast that he has won three times. He may be winning another count, this one possibly as important as the first three: the expectations game. A new Rasmussen survey reports that 67% of Minnesota voters now expect Coleman to beat Democrat Al Franken. Just 16% say Franken will win, while 17% are not sure. According to Rasmussen, the expectations quotient crosses party lines: "Even 54% of Minnesota Democrats believe Coleman will be the winner once the recount of the race is completed." PollTrack believes that this factor--combined with three cionsecutive leads for the Republican--makes the political environment (as well as the raw numbers) less hospitable to a Franken upset.

Minnesota Recount: Associated Press Projects A 192-Vote Lead For Coleman

Posted Dec 06, 2008 at 1:40 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

The Associated Press projects that Coleman, the Republican incumbent, holds a slight edge--of 192-vote--over Democrat Franken. The Associated Press arrived at the figure by "comparing Nov. 4 tallies and those from the recount in all the finished precincts, which excludes the one in Minneapolis, and applying the changes to Coleman's 215-vote lead in the initial vote count." The Ap qualifies their projection, however: "But that 192-vote lead doesn't account for more than 6,600 ballot challenges from the two campaigns. It's muddied further by legal squabbles over Franken's push to include some rejected absentee ballots in the final count."

Minnesota Recount: Hand Count Ends, Coleman Leads By 687 Votes

Posted Dec 05, 2008 at 10:57 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

The Minnesota US Senate hand recount came to an end this afternoon, with Coleman taking an official lead of 687 votes. But as the New York Times notes, the race is not over: "Officials continued to search for 133 ballots missing from one Minneapolis precinct. With all except those ballots tallied from the state’s 87 counties, Senator Norm Coleman, the Republican incumbent, was leading Al Franken, the former comedian and a Democrat, by a margin of 687 votes, the secretary of state’s office said Friday afternoon. The race could easily shift later this month, though, once a state canvassing board begins examining some 5,300 ballots still in question — ballots for which either the Coleman or the Franken campaign has challenged the voter’s true intent." Still, PollTrack believes the dynamics of the three counts, all ending with Coleman in the lead, favor the Republican incumbent.

Caroline Kennedy To Replace Clinton In The US Senate?

Posted Dec 05, 2008 at 7:33 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

ABC News reports that NY Governer David Patterson may have a surprise in store for state residents: Coroline Kennedy as its Junior Us Senastor: "Another Senator Kennedy?  The crazy speculation about Hillary Clinton's Senate seat may not be so crazy after all.  A Democrat who would know tells ABC News that New York governor David Paterson has talked to Caroline Kennedy about taking the seat, which was once held by her uncle, Robert F. Kennedy.  It’s not exactly shocking that Paterson would reach out to one of the most highly respected public figures in New York, but this is:  Sources say Kennedy is considering it, and has not ruled out coming to Washington to replace Hillary Clinton in the Senate."

Minnesota Recount: Almost Complete With Little Change From Initial Tabulation

Posted Dec 05, 2008 at 4:02 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

The Minneapolis Star Tribune reports that with the first phase of the Minnesota US Senate recount nearly complete on Thursday, the results differ little from the initial count completed in the hours and days after the polls closed in the state on 4 November: "Yet at day's end, with 99 percent of the ballots counted, the gap separating Republican Sen. Norm Coleman and Democrat Al Franken was only 36 votes larger than it had been at the start. Coleman now leads by 251, according to Star Tribune tabulations." Its unclear whether the 6,000 or so challenged ballots remaining can reverse Coleman's lead. At this point, with all three counts (initial, audit, and hand recount) seemingly going to the Republican, PollTrack believes the political (and numerical) environment continues to favor the Republican incumbent. Still, the count is not over: the state Canvassing Board will meet on Dec. 16 to begin reviewing the thousands of remaining ballot challenges from the two campaigns.

US Senate PA 2010: Specter (r) Vulnerable To Matthews (d) Challenge

Posted Dec 05, 2008 at 1:26 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

Contradicting some recent polling that shows Chris Matthews trailing Republican incumbent Arlen Specter in a hypothetical 2010 US Senate matchup, Rasmussen Reports has released a poll indicating that the Democrat presents a real threat to Specter: "Republican Senator Arlen Specter is potentially vulnerable in his 2010 bid for re-election. A Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Pennsylvania voters finds Specter leading MSNBC pundit Chris Matthews by just three percentage points, 46% to 43%, in a match-up that may foreshadow one of the nation's most closely-watched Senate races." More from CQ Politics on the Rasmussen poll: "The moderate Specter has only a 68 percent favorability rating in his own party but benefits from being viewed positively by 48 percent of Democrats. As far as actual support, 70 percent of Republicans say they would vote for him and 32 percent of Democrats said they would too."

Minnesota Recount: Coleman's Lead Remains Stable

Posted Dec 04, 2008 at 4:30 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

The Minnesota recount reports that Republican incumbent Norm Coleman is leading Al Franken by 316 votes, with 98% of the recount completed. About 6,000 challenged ballots remain. The campaign of challenger Al Franken contests this number, claiming that its internal count now has the Democrat leading by 22 votes. As MSNBC reports: "The difference here, as one of us pointed out a couple of days ago, is that the Franken camp is counting the challenged ballots (the way it thinks the independent analysts are counting them). But the Coleman campaign disputes the Franken numbers. The recount will be completed by the end of the week, and the state’s Canvassing Board will make the final call on the challenged ballots on December 16." Given the net gain made by Coleman yesterday of 36 votes, PollTrack believes that it is doubtful that Franken's internal numbers will hold. If the official recount ends with Coleman ahead, is is also doubtful that Franken can muster the kind of political support he will need--both statewide and nationally--to support reversing three consecutive wins for Coleman. The first count had the Republucan incumbent ahead; the statewide canvas had him in the lead; and a third win  now seems likely when the official recount numbers are reported on 16 December.

US Senate PA 2010: Chris Matthews (d) Still Interested In Run Against Arlen Specter (r)

Posted Dec 04, 2008 at 1:18 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

According to Poltics PA, talk show host, Democrat Chris Matthews remains interested in challenging incumbent Republican US Seanator Arlen Specter in 2010: "Knowledgeable sources have confirmed that Matthews has discussed a possible run for U.S. Senate with Congressman and Philadelphia Democratic City Committee Chair Bob Brady; Treasurer-elect Rob McCord; Allegheny County Democratic Chair Jim Burn; and Neil Oxman, Pennsylvania's premier political consultant."A recent Quinnipiac University poll suggests that neither candidate would walk away with the race, but that Matthews was in a weaker position at this point. In the poll, Specter lead Matthews, 45% to 33%.

Franken's Good News Short Lived?

Posted Dec 03, 2008 at 11:27 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

According to the St. Paul Pioneer Press (MN), elections officials in Minneapolis "discovered that one precinct came up 133 ballots short of election day totals, resulting in a net loss for Democratic challenger Al Franken of 44 votes." Thus, Republican incumbent Norm Coleman's lead may have once again inched up well past +300 votes. The conditions in the Minnesota recount continue to favor the Republican incumbent.

Al Franken Gets Some Good News

Posted Dec 03, 2008 at 8:00 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

Two pieces of good news for Democrat Al Franken as reported by the Minneapolis Star Tribune: [1] he gained 37 votes in the recount after a cache of ballots was discovered jammed in a voting machine. Coleman continues to lead, however, by 303 votes, with 93% of the vote counted. [2] The day's other news, "which Franken's campaign quickly described as a 'breakthrough,' came when [Secretary of State Mark] Ritchie's office asked local election officials to examine an estimated 12,000 rejected absentee ballots and determine whether their rejection fell under one of four reasons for rejection defined in state law. The Secretary of State's office asked that ballots that were rejected for something other than the four legal reasons be placed into a so-called "fifth category."

Florida US Senate: Bush Mulls Run

Posted Dec 03, 2008 at 6:14 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

The departure of George W. Bush on 20 January 2009 may not end the Bush dynasty in American politics. According to sources close to former Florida governor Jeb Bush, he is considering a run for the state's US Senate seat in 2010, a seat currently held by Republican Mel Martinez who announced Tuesday that he will not seek reelection: Asked whether he was interested in running for the seat then, Bush, the younger brother of the president, "told Politico by e-mail Tuesday night: 'I am considering it.' A source close to Bush said he'll be thoughtful and methodical about the decision-making process. He will consider the impact a race would have on his family and his business and whether or not the U.S. Senate is the best forum from which to continue his advocacy for issues such as education, immigration and GOP solutions to health care reform." <!-- /* Style Definitions */ p.MsoNormal, li.MsoNormal, div.MsoNormal {mso-style-parent:""; margin:0in; margin-bottom:.0001pt; mso-pagination:widow-orphan; font-size:12.0pt; font-family:"Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family:"Times New Roman";} @page Section1 {size:8.5in 11.0in; margin:1.0in 1.25in 1.0in 1.25in; mso-header-margin:.5in; mso-footer-margin:.5in; mso-paper-source:0;} div.Section1 {page:Section1;} -->

 

Chambliss Victory: A Problem For Al Franken?

Posted Dec 03, 2008 at 4:26 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

Is Republican Saxby Chambliss' decisive victory in yesterday's Georgia US Senate runoff a problem for Al Franken. The Hotline Blog seems to think so. In an interesting and perecptive analysis of the political implications of Al Franken's underdog status in the Minnesota recount, Hotline writes: "Sorry Jim Martin, but Al Franken might be the biggest loser tonight. How likely is it that Democratic senators will push for Franken -- or vote not to seat Sen. Norm Coleman should the MN race remain tight after a recount -- now that the filibuster-proof advantage has eluded the party? Such a move is a rare happening, but tonight's GA results seems to make an aggressive move on Franken's behalf less likely." With each step towards compleyion of the Minnesota recount, Franken's chances appear to diminish. Given Franken's hint that he might take the question of the validity of the Minnesota recount results to the US Senate itself (the Constitution provides that the House and Senate serve as “judge of qualifications and elections of its members”), ABC News wonders whether Senate Majority leader Harry Reid would even take up the challenge at this point: "Would Reid want to take such a politically explosive step if it wouldn’t even bring him 60 votes? Particularly when Republicans will control at least 41 votes in the new Senate -- enough to filibuster any such move, and effectively kill it?" the answer is probably no, especially after last night's results.

US Senate Race Chart: DEM-58, REP-41, With Minnesota Still Undecided

Posted Dec 02, 2008 at 1:05 PM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

With one seat still undecided in Minnesota, the makeup of the incoming US Senate is Democrat-58, Republican-41.

NBC NEWS: Republican Saxby Chambliss Declared Winner In Georgia US Senate Runoff

Posted Dec 02, 2008 at 1:03 PM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

NBC news has just declared Republican incumbent, Saxby Chambliss, the winner in his race gainast Democratic challenger in the Georgia US Senate runoff.

Georgia US Senate Runoff: With 99% Counted It's Chambliss (r)-57%, Martin (d)-43%

Posted Dec 02, 2008 at 12:32 PM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

With  With 99% of the vote counted in the US Senate runnoff in Georgia, it's Chambliss (r)-57%, Martin (d)-43%

Insider Advantage Analysis: Turnout Favors Republican Chambliss in Georgia Runoff

Posted Dec 02, 2008 at 11:28 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

According to a late analysis of today's turnout by Insider Advantage, it looks like Republican Saxby Chambliss is poised to retain his seat in the Georgia US Senate runoff: "Based on our early evaluation of turnout in the Georgia runoff, it appears Republicans have successfully defended Saxby Chambliss’ U.S. Senate seat against Democrat Jim Martin. The four-week runoff campaign focused national attention on the Peach State and brought John McCain, Sarah Palin, Bill Clinton and Al Gore to the state to help their parties' respective candidates drive up turnout. Barack Obama cut an ad and a robo-call tape for Martin but didn't risk his prestige on the race through a personal appearance."

Voting Light To Moderate In Georgia Runoff

Posted Dec 02, 2008 at 7:04 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

The US Senate runoff in Georgia is not producing the same level of voter enthusiasm as the November 4th presidential election. Precincts and polling stations across Georgia are reporting low to moderate voter turnout. The New York Times reports, for example, that at the Atlanta Public Library on Ponce de Leon Ave., where more than 1,600 people voted in the general election, only 400 people had voted by noon today.

Minnesota Recount: Bad News For Franken (d) As Coleman (r) Lead Grows

Posted Dec 02, 2008 at 3:22 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

According to the Minneapolis Star Tribune, Republican incumbent Norm Coleman has increased his lead by more than 60 votes against Democratic challenger Al Franken in the Minnesota US Senate recount. With nearly all of the votes recounted, Coleman has a lead of +340 votes.

Election Day In Georgia: Final POLLTRACK Average--Chambliss-51.7% to Martin-46%, REP + 5.7%

Posted Dec 02, 2008 at 1:43 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

Today is Election Day in Georgia, the runoff for the state's US Senate Seat. PollTrack's final average: Republican incumbent Saxby Chambliss-51.7% to Democratic Challenger Jim Martin-46%, REP + 5.7%.

Georgia US Senate Runoff: Chambliss Up +7, With Overwheling White Support

Posted Dec 01, 2008 at 5:52 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

On the strength of overwhelming support from white voters, Republican incumbent Saxby Chambiss leads Democratic challenger Jim Martin by +7% in tomorrow's Georgia US Senate runoff, 53% to 46%. Public Policy Polling’s final survey for the Georgia runoff "continues to find incumbent Republican Saxby Chambliss holding a solid advantage. He’s now extended his lead to 53-46 over challenger Jim Martin. Chambliss is leading 71-28 among whites planning to vote in the runoff. If Martin can’t improve on that, the electorate on Tuesday would have to be 34% African American for
him to win. Given that it was only 30% for the Presidential election and was a little under 23% during early voting that seems like it would be a stretch." These numbers confirm PollTrack's sense that Chambliss has the distinct advantage in tomorrow's race.

Georgia Runoff: Tunrout (And Its Racial Breakdown) Will Determine Outcome

Posted Dec 01, 2008 at 5:03 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

Will African-American voters turn out in record numbers--as they did for the presidential race in November--or will white voters carry the day in tomorrow's US Senate runoff in Georgia? Will today's visit from former Republican VP candidate Sarah Palin make a difference? As MSNBC explains: "The numbers game in the Georgia runoff is simple: Chambliss is hoping Palin will spike turnout among his base supporters, white evangelicals, while Martin was hoping Obama could spike turnout among his base, African-Americans. Turnout among both groups will be down, that's a fact. The question is which group will down more from Election Day? Answer that question, and you'll know the winner." PollTrack believes the odds favor Republican Saxby Chambliss: he continues to lead in all public opinion polls AND he just grazed the 50% mark on November 4th, even with historic African-American turnout. He's coming into a runoff where the black vote may be down from the presidential race AND he only needs only a handful of votes to take him over the 50% mark relative to November 4th. So Martin remains the underdog.

Early Voter Turnout High In Georgia

Posted Dec 01, 2008 at 1:36 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

Early--or "Advanced--voting ended in Georgia last Wednesday in the US Senate runoff, and from early analysis of the turnout, it looks like interest in the Saxby Chambliss (r) vs Jim Martin (d) bout runs fairly high: " Advance voting in the Georgia Senate runoff race ended Wednesday with one county setting a record voter turnout. Almost three thousand ballots were cast during the week long advanced voting period in Lowndes County. Election officials say more than one thousand voters cast ballots on the first day alone. At the close of polls Wednesday....turnout stood at nearly eleven point three percent... Typical turnout in previous runoff races has been about three percent." It's unclear, however, how this increase in early voting will affect the outcome of the Georgia runoff race.

Early Look At The Pennsylvania US Senate 2010: Specter vs Matthews

Posted Nov 28, 2008 at 6:00 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

Quinnipiac is out with an early barometer of the hypothetical 2010 Us Senate match up between incumbent Republican Arlen Specter and MSNBC political commentator, Democrat Chris Matthews. The survey reports that Specter holds a 45% to 33% lead over Matthews. "Sen. Specter leads 72 - 9 percent among Republicans and 45 - 27 percent among independent voters, while Matthews leads 55 - 25 percent among Democrats." "Who says the Republicans are dead? Sen. Arlen Specter has the highest job approval rating of any major Pennsylvania Pol and would knock off Chris Matthews by 12 points if the Hardball host decides to run against him," observes (Quinnipiac assistant polling director) Clay Richards. "Matthews has been on MSNBC wall to wall during the election season, but is a question mark for 60 percent of the voters. Specter has been relatively invisible the past year and has a strong 56 percent favorable rating."

Georgia US Senate: Research 2000 Poll Shows Republican Incumbent Up +6%

Posted Nov 28, 2008 at 1:51 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

A Research 2000 poll of likely voters in next Tuesday's Georgia US Senate runoff shows Republican incumbent Saxby Chambliss with a +6% lead over Democratic challenger Jim Martin, 52% to 46%.

CQ Poltics: Coleman Has A Net Gain of 77 More Votes Since Recount Began

Posted Nov 27, 2008 at 2:12 PM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

According to CQ Politics, Republican incumbent Norm Coleman has actually increased his advantage over Democrat Al Franken since the Minnesota US Senate recount began on 19 November: "By close of business Wednesday [11/26], Coleman had gained a net total of 77 votes, according to the office of Minnesota’s secretary of state. With approximately 86 percent of the ballots recounted, Coleman now leads Franken by 292 votes, up from the 215-vote margin he held at the end of the initial count that began on election night."

Minnesota Recount: Franken (d) Trails Coleman (r) by 283 Votes

Posted Nov 26, 2008 at 9:39 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

According to MSNBC, Democrat challenger Al Franken trails Republican incumbent Norm Coleman by 283 votes at the end of the day. It appears that Coleman's lead is ticking upward over the past few days.

Courts May Decide Minnesota Senate Race

Posted Nov 26, 2008 at 7:56 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

According to CQ Politics, the Coleman-Franken recount may not be decided without judicial intervention: The Minnesota canvassing board today denied a request, "entered by attorneys for Franken, that it review absentee ballots rejected for technical reasons by local elections officials, and include in the candidates’ vote totals any ballots found to have been wrongly dismissed. The five-member board ruled unanimously that it does not have the authority to consider the legitimacy of absentee ballots, saying that is a matter for election judges or the courts to decide. This was essentially the position taken by Coleman’s campaign, which opposed the petition by the Franken camp to have the board take charge of the absentee ballots in question." 

Minnesota Recount: Coleman (r) Continues To Lead, But Absentee Ballots Complicate Picture

Posted Nov 26, 2008 at 4:39 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

According WCCO, incumbent Republican Norm Coleman maintains a 238 vote lead in the Minnesota recount as of Tuesday night, but 6400 rejected absentee ballots now cloud the eventual outcome: "Campaigns for Democrat Al Franken and Republican Sen. Norm Coleman reached back into history to make their arguments before the board weighs in on Wednesday. Franken -- who trailed Coleman by 215 votes going into the recount -- is pushing to include ballots it says were wrongly rejected. Coleman wants them kept out. Figures gathered by the secretary of state through Tuesday night show Coleman with a 238-vote lead when Nov. 4 tallies are compared with new counts in completed precincts. Four-fifths of ballots have been recounted. But Coleman has challenged 78 more ballots than Franken. Combined, the two have challenged nearly 3,600 ballots." More to come, no doubt.

Minnesota US Senate: Missing Ballots Present New Recount Problem

Posted Nov 26, 2008 at 2:01 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

According to the Minneapolis Star Tribune, a new problem has erupted in the Minnesota US Senate recount: missing ballots. The paper reports: "The Franken campaign today said that it has learned of missing ballots totaling several hundred in various counties. Franken recount attorney Marc Elias said he's also bothered that counties that know they have missing ballots aren't bothering to look for them. Elias declined to identify those counties but acknowledged that the Franken campaign is monitoring reports of several dozen missing ballots in Becker County."

Minneapolis Star Tribune: Coleman Lead At 213 Votes

Posted Nov 25, 2008 at 9:51 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

The Minneapolis Star Tribune reports that Coleman's actual lead after today recounting is 213 votes, bot the 84 votes reported earlier today by MSNBC. Stay Tuned.

Minnesota Recount: Republican Incumbent Coleman's Lead Narrows to 84 Votes?

Posted Nov 25, 2008 at 9:05 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

MSNBC/First Read reports that Republican incumbent Norman Coleman's advantage in the US Senate recount against Democratic challenger Al Franken has shrunk to 84 votes as of this afternoon. Stay tuned. (PollTrack has not yet confirmed this number.)

Franken (D-MN) Slipping In Democratic Strongholds

Posted Nov 25, 2008 at 6:59 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

A report released today suggests that Democratic challenger Al Franken may be loosing ground in the Minnesota recount against Republican Norm Coleman on the very turf he expected to make up votes: in Democratic urban strongholds. Twin-Cities.com writes: "Are the piles of recounted ballots from red counties, where Republican Sen. Norm Colman might be expected to pick up a few stray votes? Or blue counties, where DFL challenger Al Franken might have the advantage? But Minneapolis — the biggest, bluest pile of all — is turning that logic on its head. With nearly half of its ballots recounted, the city Franken calls home isn't doing the candidate any favors. And that could be dimming Franken's hopes of catching Coleman before the state canvassing board meets Dec. 16. 'Things are clearly moving in the wrong direction for Franken,' said Larry Jacobs, director of the University of Minnesota's Center for the Study of Politics and Governance. (With slightly less than half of the ballots counted in Minneapolis, Franken has lost 86 votes, while Coleman has lost just 37.)

Minnesota Recount: Coleman (r) Picks Up A Few Votes In US Senate Race

Posted Nov 25, 2008 at 1:28 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

As ballot challenges surged to more than 3,000 on Monday, Republican incumbent Norm Coleman has picked up a bit of steam in the Minnesota US Senate recount. As the Minneapolis Star Tribune reports: "More than 78% of the votes had been recounted as of Monday night, and Republican Sen. Norm Coleman's advantage over DFLer Al Franken stood at 210, according to a Star Tribune compilation of results reported to the secretary of state and gathered by the newspaper. Before the recount, Coleman led Franken by 215 votes out of about 2.9 million cast, a margin that has fluctuated over the past week."

Georgia US Senate: Republican Incumbent Has Lead

Posted Nov 24, 2008 at 6:38 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

In Georgia's U.S. Senate run off, a new Public Policy Polling survey reports that incumbent Republican Saxby Chambliss  has expanded his lead to six points over Jim Martin (D), 52% to 46%, an improvement from the three point advantage he held on election day. An increase in independent voter support accounts for most of Chambliss' increased lead.

Minnesota Senate Race May Come Down To Disputed Absentee Ballots

Posted Nov 24, 2008 at 1:19 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

According to the Minneapolis Star Tribune, the tough fought MN Senate race could come down to disputed absentee ballots, and whether they are counted or not: "With Republican U.S. Sen. Norm Coleman clinging to a reed-thin lead over DFL challenger Al Franken -- 180 votes as of Saturday night -- the issue of how and when absentee ballots should be counted has election law experts everywhere closely tracking the Minnesota recount drama. In a race this tight, the difference could come down to clerical errors on absentee ballots or even a challenge of Minnesota's law governing such ballots. 'Campaigns over the years have challenged anything and everything," said recount expert Timothy Downs, principal author of "The Recount Primer' who has been involved in most major recounts over the years, including the biggest: Gore vs. Bush in 2000. Downs' co-author, Chris Sautter, hit the ground in Minneapolis last week as part of Franken's recount team." PollTrack notes that with an 180 vote lead--and most ballots now recounted--Coleman may be in a better position to hold onto his lead that Democrats believed earlier in the week.So the counting of discarded absentee ballots could substantially impact on the outcome. This race is a true nail biter. Stay tuned to PollTrack coverage of this and the other important outstanding US Senate race--the runoff in Georgia.

MN Senate: Coleman Lead Shrinks Even More

Posted Nov 22, 2008 at 2:38 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

According to the Minneapolis Star Tribune: "With 64% of the 2.9 million ballots recounted, Coleman was ahead by 120 votes, down from 136 at the end of Thursday and from the unofficial lead of 215 signed off on Tuesday by the state Canvassing Board."

Coleman Lead Down By A Few More

Posted Nov 21, 2008 at 2:23 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

Republican Norm Coleman's lead has dropped yet again in the Minnesota recount. With 46% of the 2.9 million ballots counted by last night, the gap between Coleman and Al Franken narrowed even more. Coleman's leads stands at just 136 votes, a drop from his a 215 vote advantage at the start of the recount.

Minnesota Senate Race: Final Results May Not Be Known Until The End Of The Year

Posted Nov 21, 2008 at 1:46 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

According to the Minneapolis Star Tribune, a final certified result for the US Senate race in Minnesota may not be available until the end of the year: "Recount officials will take up their task again today and every day until the votes are tabulated, with a full report expected by Dec. 5. The Canvassing Board is expected to make a decision on rejected absentee ballots early next week and rule on challenged ballots starting Dec. 16. While a court challenge could delay results further, Ritchie said he hopes to have an actual winner declared before the end of the year." And this appears to be optimistic.

Minnesota Senate Race: A Look At Challenged Ballots

Posted Nov 20, 2008 at 4:16 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

Minnesota Senate Race: A Look At Challenged Ballots. Minnesota Public Radio has just posted on its website a series of challenged ballots in the Coleman-Franken recount. The problems with these ballots--some clearly indicative of voter intent, others not--are both varied, creative, and surprising. The article also allows you to vote on whether you believe a ballot is valid or not. To get a look at these ballots click here.

Minnesota Senate Race: Coleman (r) Drops 41 Votes In Recount So Far

Posted Nov 20, 2008 at 1:58 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

After the first day of Minnesota's US Senate race recount, Republican incumbent Norm Coleman (R-MN) lost a net of 41 votes and now holds a 174-vote advantage over challenger Al Franken (D). At the start of the recount, Coleman was up by 215 votes.

Minnesota Recount Begins Today

Posted Nov 19, 2008 at 2:06 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

The Minneapolis Star Tribune reports: "Two weeks after the closest U.S. Senate election in Minnesota history, a massive hand recount of all 2.9 million votes gets underway today, with local officials working under the scrutiny of top lawyers brought in by both candidates." A final tally should be completed by mid-December.

US Senate Race Chart: DEM-58, REP-40, TCTC-2

Posted Nov 19, 2008 at 1:46 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

The Democrats now have 58 confirmed seats in the next congress, three away from the magic number of 60. PollTrack rates the Minnesota race as the Democrat's best chance to gain one more seat, Georgia less likely given the relative conservatism of the state and the possibility of lower turn-out for the state's run-off relative to 4 November, when African-American voters turned out in record numbers.

Alaska Senate: Democrat Mark Begich Declared Winner By AP

Posted Nov 18, 2008 at 3:15 PM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

The Associated Press has declared Democrat Mark Begich the victor in the US Senate contest against Republican incumbent Ted Stevens.

Alaska Senate Vote Count: Critical Tally Later Today

Posted Nov 18, 2008 at 6:40 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

Critical numbers are due later today for the Alaska US Senate race: "Though elections officials in Alaska may be counting additional ballots for a few more days, the updated vote tally at the end of the day on Tuesday could move the contested race between Senator Ted Stevens and Anchorage Mayor Mark Begich closer to conclusion. Gail Fenumiai, the Alaska elections chief, said that her office planned to release an updated unofficial count by the end of the day on Tuesday, but cautioned that more ballots will be counted on Nov. 25." Democrat Mark Begich now holds a lead of more than 1,000 votes over incumbent Republican Senator Ted Stevens. Many of the remaining balots come from areas favorable to the Democrat.

Minnesota Senate Race: Franken (d) Files Brief

Posted Nov 18, 2008 at 1:54 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

According to MSNBC, the campaign of Alfranken "filed a brief with the Minnesota State Canvassing Board to learn why some absentee ballots were rejected and to determine if any of those rejections were improper. The campaign cited various reasons oversights might have occurred with absentee ballots, including human error and various technicalities." No doubt, much more to come on this one. The official statewide recount begins tomorrow, 19 November. Coleman now leads by a scant 215 votes.

Dartmouth Study: Franken Has Advantage In Minnesota Recount

Posted Nov 16, 2008 at 11:36 PM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

A statistical analysis by Dartmouth University suggests that Democratic challenger Al Franken has a decided advantage in the recount against Republican incumbent Norm Coleman in the 2008 Minnesota US Senate race: the "race in Minnesota . . .  is slated to be recounted starting on November 19, 2008, and a key issue in the recount will be the approximately 34 thousand residual votes associated with it. A Senate residual vote is, roughly speaking, the product of a ballot that lacks a recorded Senate vote, and in the Minnesota Senate race there is no doubt that the number of residual votes dwarfs the margin that separates Coleman from Franken. We show using a combination of precinct voting returns from the 2006 and 2008 General Elections that patterns in Senate race residual votes are consistent with, one, the presence of a large number of Democratic-leaning voters, in particular African-American voters, who appear to have deliberately skipped voting in the Coleman-Franken Senate contest and, two, the presence of a smaller number of Democratic leaning voters who almost certainly intended to cast a vote in the Senate race but for some reason did not do so. . . .  the data available suggest that the recount will uncover many of the former and that, of the latter, a majority will likely prove to be supportive of Franken."

Alaska Senate Vote Count: Signs Now Favor Demorcat

Posted Nov 14, 2008 at 6:32 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

The majority of votes remaining to be counted in Alaska are from districts and precincts that generally favor the Democrat, Mark Begich. he now holds a 814 lead over Republican incumbent Ted Stevens, a lead that is likely to grown in the coming days.

Minnesota Post-Election Vote Audits Traditionally Show Great Fluctuation

Posted Nov 14, 2008 at 2:43 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

According to a CBS News affiliate in Minnesota, post-election audits of votes often show considerable fluctuation from election night totals. WCCO-TV writes: "It may look suspicious how much the U.S. Senate vote totals are going up and down, but it's really not that unusual. The night that Sen. Norm Coleman defeated former Vice President Walter Mondale in the 2002 U.S. Senate race he piled up more than 1,062,000 votes. But when all the ballots were certified two weeks later, Coleman had 54,000 more votes . . . Between election night voting numbers, and two weeks later when the State Canvassing Board certified official results, Coleman gained 54,429 votes. Mondale's vote total also went up 63,192 votes, but not enough to beat Coleman. It's what happens in Minnesota elections. We just don't pay attention when the race isn't close."

Georgia US Senate Runoff: Poll Shows Close Race

Posted Nov 14, 2008 at 1:32 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

A new Research 2000/Daily Kos survey reports that next month's U.S. Senate run off looks close at this point. Sen. Saxby Chambliss (R-GA) narrowly leads challenger Jim Martin (D), 49% to 46%.

Alaska Senate: Begich Lead Now Over 800 Votes

Posted Nov 13, 2008 at 1:43 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

With Democrat Mark Begich rapidly pulling into the lead in the Alaska US Senate race--he now has an advantage over incumbent Ted Stevens of more than 800 votes--it is likely that the Democrat will continue to make up ground as absentee ballots and ballots from remote parts of the state are counted. Republican, though, believe Stevens will prevail, claiming that historical voting patterns among absentee voters favored Stevens. Begich points to the concerted effort he has made to win early and absentee voters.

Minnesota Update: Republicans Charge Mischief

Posted Nov 13, 2008 at 12:51 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

Minnesota Update: Republicans Charge Mischief. The Minnesota recount is getting ugly, even before it happens. Now state Republicans are accusing local Democratic counties and precincts of cooking the books in their post-election audit of votes. The Wall Street Journal reports: "When Minnesotans woke up last Wednesday, Republican Senator Norm Coleman led Mr. Franken by 725 votes. By that evening, he was ahead by only 477. As of yesterday, Mr. Coleman's margin stood at 206. This lopsided bleeding of Republican votes is passing strange considering that the official recount hasn't even begun. The vanishing Coleman vote came during a week in which election officials are obliged to double-check their initial results. Minnesota is required to do these audits, and it isn't unusual for officials to report that they transposed a number here or there. In a normal audit, these mistakes could be expected to cut both ways. Instead, nearly every "fix" has gone for Mr. Franken, in some cases under strange circumstances." With one county official reporting that she forgot absentee ballots "left in her car," things may get very contentious.  For more on Republican charges click here.

Alaska Senate: Begich (d) Narrows The Gap With Stevens (r), Now Leads By Three Votes

Posted Nov 12, 2008 at 12:18 PM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

Alaska Senate: Begich (d) Narrows The Gap With Stevens (r), Now Leads By Three Votes. On Election Night, Republican Ted Stevens, convicted US Senator from Alaska, lead his Democratic opponent Mark Begich by 3,000 votes. Vote counting can be very slow in Alaska, given the remote location of some voters, sporadic mail delivery, and absentee ballots that can take as much as 15 days to arrive at election headquarters. Early results from this afternoon's ballot counting in the Alaska U.S. Senate race show Begich dramatically narrowing the gap with Stevens, according to the Anchorage Daily News. With tens tens of thousands of ballots left to count and even more next week . . . the latest numbers show Stevens' lead is down to 3 votes. "The new numbers, reflecting nearly 43,000 absentee ballots counted today, are from all over the state." For more on the Alaska vote count click here.

Coleman-Franken Post-Game: Now For The Pre-Count

Posted Nov 12, 2008 at 12:28 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

Coleman-Franken Post-Game: Now For The Pre-Count. They take voting very seriously in civic-minded Minnesota. So with an election that separates two candidates by a little more than 200 votes out of 2.9 million cast, the state undertakes an audit in anticipation of a full-dress recount. The Minneapolis Star Tribune describes the process in one county: "Twenty men and women settled in along tables at the Ramsey County elections office first thing Monday morning and began plowing through more than 7,700 ballots cast last Tuesday in the U.S. Senate race. After nearly three hours of counting, Norm Coleman had lost exactly one net vote in five of the county's precincts. Al Franken had gained exactly one." This post-election audit is apt to find a few mistakes, but perhaps not that many: "After the 2006 election, the first time the audit was conducted, it reviewed votes in about 5 percent of the state's 4,123 precincts. Among 94,073 votes cast in the U.S. Senate race in those precincts, the audit found 53 discrepancies, an error rate of .00056.ll 87 Minnesota counties." while this doesn't sound like many votes, finding mistakes at this clip could possible reverse the outcome of the US Senate race or even add to Coleman's fragile lead. For the full article click here.

Minnesota: Coleman's Lead Drops to 204 From 221.

Posted Nov 10, 2008 at 5:59 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

According to the Minneapolis Star Tribune, Republican US Senator Norm Coleman's lead over Democratic challenger Al Franken is now down to 204, from 221 on Friday. The Minnesota recount will be contentious no doubt.

Minnesota 2008: The New Florida 2000?

Posted Nov 10, 2008 at 1:53 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

Minnesota 2008: The New Florida 2000? With Norm Coleman holding on to a lead of a little over 200 votes--out of 2.4 million cast--will the recount in Minnesota turn out to be a remake of Florida in 2000. Unlikely, since the state of Minnesota uses a uniform optical scan system for its balloting (thus, no hanging chads to speak of). One of the accurate voting methods, optical scan technology, the Franken campaign is quick to point, can "skip" up to two votes out of every 1,000 counted. Play out the match, and suddenly an upset is possible in Minnesota, far more so than when Coleman lead by more than 700 votes the day after the polls closed. Things could also get ugly as they did in Florida. Of the narrowing of the space between the two challengers in recent days, "Mr. Coleman’s campaign is 'profoundly suspicious,' Fritz Knaak, his general counsel, said, because “we’re mystified at this apparent pattern of every time there seems to be a change, it happens after hours and it happens in the Franken favor.” The next few weeks in Minnesota are bound to get fascinating, if not contentious. For more coverage of the pending recount click here.

A Ray of Hope For Al Franken (d) In Minnesota Senate Candidate

Posted Nov 07, 2008 at 3:38 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

According to the Minneapolis Star Tribune, Al Franken (D) is now just 237 votes behind Sen. Norm Coleman (R-MN) in Minnesota's U.S. Senate race. With so few votes separating him from incumbent senator Norm Coleman (r), a recount could reverse the outcome. Stay tuned.

US Senate: One Recount, One Run-Off, And One Wait And See

Posted Nov 07, 2008 at 12:50 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

The results of the three uncalled US Senate races may not be known for a while. In Georgia, Republican incumbent Saxby Chambliss failed to reach the 50% + 1-vote threshold and is headed for a run-off with his Democratic challenger. In Minnesota, Republican incumbent Norm Coleman hangs on to a 700-vote lead. Yhe race is headed for a run-off (but given the state's use of optical scan voting technology, one of the most accurate, Al Franken may not be able to make up the difference). And in the Alaska contest, Republican incumbent (and convicted felon) Ted Stevens hangs on to a small lead. The race awaits a full count and certification by the state.

US Senate: In Oregon, Merkley (D) Defeats Smith (R), Three Races TCTC

Posted Nov 06, 2008 at 1:24 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

The balance in the new US Senate as of this morning: 57-DEM, 40-REP, 3-TCTC. In a photo-finish in the US Senate race in Oregon, Democrat Jeff Merkley (D) has defeated Republican Gordon Smith. The race in Alaska leans towards recently convicted Republican Senator Ted Stevens in his race against Democratic challenger Mike Begich. (If Steven's resigns or is booted from the Senate, whic is likely, Governor Sarah Palin must order a special election to fill the vacant seat. The big question: Will Palin herself run for the job?) Saxby Chambliss, Republican incumbent in Georgia, may not reach the required 50% +1 vote to avoid a runoff. And Norm Coleman, Republican of Minnesota, holds onto a paper-thin 700 vote lead against challenger Al Franken. Coleman's lead, as tiny as it is, may be enough to keep him in the US Senate.

Three Senate Races Uncalled, So Far: 56 DEM, 41 REP

Posted Nov 05, 2008 at 1:37 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

Three Senate races remain uncalled. In Georgia, Republican Saxby Chambliss leads--and is slightly over the fifty-percent mark--but must be certified to having passed this threshold in order to avoid a runoff. In Alaska, the convicted Republican incumbent Ted stevens leads by less than +1% with 99% of the vote counted. In Oregon, Gorgn Smith (r) leads by a slim margin but with only 75% of the vote in. Additionally the race has been called by some news organizations for Minnesota, Republican incumbent Norm Coleman over Al Franken (d) in a razor-thin finish: 42.1% to 42%. This race, however, will undoubtedly be headed for a recount. Here are the results (all called correctly thus far by PollTrack):

US Senate Winners: 5 November 2008

Solid Democrat: Arkanas: Pryor;  Delaware: Biden; Illinois: Durbin; Iowa: Harkin; Massachusetts: Kerry; Michigan: Levin; Montana: Baucus; New Jersey: Lautenberg; Rhode Island: Reed, West Virginia:  Rockefeller; Virginia: Warner (d) vs Gilmore (r) (VA)

Likely  Democrat: South Dakota: Johnson (SD)

Lean Democrat: Louisiana: Landrieu (LA); Colorado: Udall (d) vs Schaffer (r) (CO); New Mexico: Udall (d) vs Pierce (r) (NM); New Hampshire: Sununu (r) vs Shaheen (d); North Carolina: Dole (r) vs Hagan (d)

 

Too Close To Call (as of 9:00 AM, 5 November  2008)

Georgia: Chambliss (r) vs Martin (d)

Alaska: Stevens (r)  vs Begich (d)

Oregon: Smith (r) vs Merkley (d)

 

Lean Republican: Kentucky: McConnell; Mississippi (special): Wicker (r) vs Musgrove (d); Minnesota: Coleman (r) vs Franken (d) vs Barkley (called for the REP, but may be headed for recount)

Likely Republican: Maine: Collins (ME), Nebraska: Yohanns vs Kleeb (d), Oklahoma: Inhofe (OK)

Solid Republican: Alabama: Sessions ; Idaho: Lish (r) vs LaRocco (d) (ID), Kansas: Roberts (KS), Mississippi: Cochran (regular); South Carolina: Graham Tennessee: Alexander ; Texas: Cornyn; Wyoming (regular): Enzi; Wyoming (special): Barrasso (r) vs Carter (d)


Balance Of Power Tally: DEM-56, REP-41, TCTC-3

Current Balance: DEM-51 (49-D, 2-I) to REP-49

BOLD: Victor 

Italics: Incumbent

FINAL US Senate Race Chart: DEM-58, REP-42

Posted Nov 04, 2008 at 2:18 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

The final results of PollTrack US Senate Race Chart suggest a strong Democratic tilt in the new Congress. As of this morning, PollTrack believes that incumbent Republican US Senator Norm Coleman of MN will hold on to his seat in his hard-fough race against challengers Al Franken (dem) and Dean Barkley (i). The balance of power in the new Congress reads: DEM-58, REP-42. See chart below:

US Senate Race Chart: 4 November 2008

Solid Democrat: Arkanas: Pryor;  Delaware: Biden; Illinois: Durbin; Iowa: Harkin; Massachusetts: Kerry; Michigan: Levin; Montana: Baucus; New Jersey: Lautenberg; Rhode Island: Reed, West Virginia:  Rockefeller; Virginia: Warner (d) vs Gilmore (r) (VA)

Likely  Democrat: South Dakota: Johnson (SD)

Lean Democrat: Louisiana: Landrieu (LA); Colorado: Udall (d) vs Schaffer (r) (CO); New Mexico: Udall (d) vs Pierce (r) (NM); New Hampshire: Sununu (r) vs Shaheen (d); Alaska: Stevens (r)  vs Begich (d); Oregon: Smith (r) vs Merkley (d); North Carolina: Dole (r) vs Hagan (d)

Lean Republican: Kentucky: McConnell; Mississippi (special): Wicker (r) vs Musgrove (d); Georgia: Chambliss (r) vs Martin (d); Minnesota: Coleman (r) vs Franken (d) vs Barkley (i) 14.3%

Likely Republican: Maine: Collins (ME), Nebraska: Yohanns vs Kleeb (d), Oklahoma: Inhofe (OK)

Solid Republican: Alabama: Sessions ; Idaho: Lish (r) vs LaRocco (d) (ID), Kansas: Roberts (KS), Mississippi: Cochran (regular); South Carolina: Graham Tennessee: Alexander ; Texas: Cornyn; Wyoming (regular): Enzi; Wyoming (special): Barrasso (r) vs Carter (d)


Balance Of Power Tally: DEM-58, REP-42

Current Balance: DEM-51 (49-D, 2-I) to REP-49

BOLD: Leading In Race 

Italics: Incumbent

US Senate Race Chart: DEM-58, REP-41, TCTC-1

Posted Nov 03, 2008 at 2:34 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

The fundamentals of the races for US Senate suggest a strong Democratic title in the new Congress. As of this morning, PollTrack believes that McCain's slight edge in the state of Georgia may help pull along incumbent US Senator Saxby Chambliss. (Heavy African-American early voting in the states, however, could blow both races wide open.)  The new balance of power reads: DEM-58, REP-41, TCTC-1. With the Republicans holding at least 40 seats (now at 41) according to our tabulation, it may be difficult for the Democrat's to meet their expressed goal of achieving a 60 seat majority-- the number needed to end a filibuster and close to the 2/3 required to override a presidential veto. See chart below:

US Senate Race Chart: 3 November 2008

Solid Democrat: Arkanas: Pryor;  Delaware: Biden; Illinois: Durbin; Iowa: Harkin; Massachusetts: Kerry; Michigan: Levin; Montana: Baucus; New Jersey: Lautenberg; Rhode Island: Reed, West Virginia:  Rockefeller; Virginia: Warner (d) vs Gilmore (r) (VA)

Likely  Democrat: South Dakota: Johnson (SD)

Lean Democrat: Louisiana: Landrieu (LA); Colorado: Udall (d) vs Schaffer (r) (CO); New Mexico: Udall (d) vs Pierce (r) (NM); New Hampshire: Sununu (r) vs Shaheen (d); Alaska: Stevens (r)  vs Begich (d); Oregon: Smith (r) vs Merkley (d); North Carolina: Dole (r) vs Hagan (d)

 

Too Close To Call (with PollTrack poll averages)

 

Minnesota: Coleman (r) 40.7% vs Franken (d) 38.7% vs Barkley (i) 14.3%

 

Lean Republican: Kentucky: McConnell; Mississippi (special): Wicker (r) vs Musgrove (d); Georgia: Chambliss (r) vs Martin (d)

Likely Republican: Maine: Collins (ME), Nebraska: Yohanns vs Kleeb (d), Oklahoma: Inhofe (OK)

Solid Republican: Alabama: Sessions ; Idaho: Lish (r) vs LaRocco (d) (ID), Kansas: Roberts (KS), Mississippi: Cochran (regular); South Carolina: Graham Tennessee: Alexander ; Texas: Cornyn; Wyoming (regular): Enzi; Wyoming (special): Barrasso (r) vs Carter (d)


Balance Of Power Tally: DEM-58, REP-41, TCTC-1

Current Balance: DEM-51 (49-D, 2-I) to REP-49

BOLD: Leading In Race 

Italics: Incumbent

US Senate Race Chart: DEM-58, REP-40, TCTC-2

Posted Nov 02, 2008 at 3:10 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

The fundamentals of the races for US Senate suggest a strong Democratic title in the new Congress. In North Carolina, challenger Democrat Kay Hagan now hits the 50% mark in PT's statewide poll average and holds onto a 5.5% overall lead. With Republican Elizabeth Dole's negative campaign backfiring, and an unprecedented African-American turnout in early voting in the state, PollTrack now believes that Hagan is likely to win in NC and moves the state from "Too Close To Call" to "Lean Democrat." The new balance of power reads: DEM-58, REP-40, TCTC-2. With the Republicans holding at least 40 seats according to out tabulation, it may be difficult for the Democrat's to meet their expressed goal of achieving a 60 seat majority-- the number needed to end a filibuster and close to the 2/3 required to override a presidential veto. The Democrats are now two seats shy of this goal according to PT and would need to pick off the remaining "To Close" races--in Minnesota and Georgia--to achive their goal. See chart below:

US Senate Race Chart: 2 November 2008

Solid Democrat: Arkanas: Pryor;  Delaware: Biden; Illinois: Durbin; Iowa: Harkin; Massachusetts: Kerry; Michigan: Levin; Montana: Baucus; New Jersey: Lautenberg; Rhode Island: Reed, West Virginia:  Rockefeller; Virginia: Warner (d) vs Gilmore (r) (VA)

Likely  Democrat: South Dakota: Johnson (SD)

Lean Democrat: Louisiana: Landrieu (LA); Colorado: Udall (d) vs Schaffer (r) (CO); New Mexico: Udall (d) vs Pierce (r) (NM); New Hampshire: Sununu (r) vs Shaheen (d); Alaska: Stevens (r)  vs Begich (d); Oregon: Smith (r) vs Merkley (d); North Carolina: Dole (r) vs Hagan (d)

 

Too Close To Call (with PollTrack poll averages)

Georgia: Chambliss (r) 46.2% vs Martin (d) 43.2%

Minnesota: Coleman (r) 40.7% vs Franken (d) 38.7% vs Barkley (i) 14.3%

 

Lean Republican: Kentucky: McConnell; Mississippi (special): Wicker (r) vs Musgrove (d)

Likely Republican: Maine: Collins (ME), Nebraska: Yohanns vs Kleeb (d); Oklahoma: Inhofe (OK)

Solid Republican: Alabama: Sessions ; Idaho: Lish (r) vs LaRocco (d) (ID), Kansas: Roberts (KS), Mississippi: Cochran (regular); South Carolina: Graham Tennessee: Alexander ; Texas: Cornyn; Wyoming (regular): Enzi; Wyoming (special): Barrasso (r) vs Carter (d)


Balance Of Power Tally: DEM-58, REP-40, TCTC-2

Current Balance: DEM-51 (49-D, 2-I) to REP-49

BOLD: Leading In Race 

Italics: Incumbent

US Senate Race Chart: DEM-57, REP-40, TCTC-3

Posted Nov 01, 2008 at 2:42 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

The fundamentals of the races for US Senate suggest a strong Democratic title in the new Congress. Based on the extraordinarily wide and deep support for Obama in the state or Oregon, PollTrack believes his coattails may be enough to sweep Democratic US Senate challenger Jeff Merkley to victory in his race against Republican incumbent Gordon Smith. With PollTrack moving the Oregon race from "Too Close To Call" to "Lean Democrat," the new balance of power reads: DEM-57, REP-40, TCTC-3. With the Republicans holding at least 40 seats according to out tabulation, it may be difficult for the Democrat's to meet their expressed goal of achieving a 60 seat majority-- the number needed to end a filibuster and close to the 2/3 required to override a presidential veto. To do so, the Democrats would have to pick Senate seats in some of the reddest states on the map, including Georgia, Kentucky, and Mississippi. See chart below:

US Senate Race Chart: 1 November 2008

Solid Democrat: Arkanas: Pryor;  Delaware: Biden; Illinois: Durbin; Iowa: Harkin; Massachusetts: Kerry; Michigan: Levin; Montana: Baucus; New Jersey: Lautenberg; Rhode Island: Reed, West Virginia:  Rockefeller; Virginia: Warner (d) vs Gilmore (r) (VA)

Likely  Democrat: South Dakota: Johnson (SD)

Lean Democrat: Louisiana: Landrieu (LA); Colorado: Udall (d) vs Schaffer (r) (CO); New Mexico: Udall (d) vs Pierce (r) (NM); New Hampshire: Sununu (r) vs Shaheen (d); Alaska: Stevens (r)  vs Begich (d); Oregon: Smith (r) vs Merkley (d)

 

Too Close To Call (with PollTrack poll averages)

Georgia: Chambliss (r) 46.2% vs Martin (d) 43.2%

Minnesota: Coleman (r) 40.7% vs Franken (d) 38.7% vs Barkley (i) 14.3%

North Carolina: Dole (r) 44.5% vs Hagan (d) 46.5%

 

Lean Republican: Kentucky: McConnell; Mississippi (special): Wicker (r) vs Musgrove (d)

Likely Republican: Maine: Collins (ME), Nebraska: Yohanns vs Kleeb (d); Oklahoma: Inhofe (OK)

Solid Republican: Alabama: Sessions ; Idaho: Lish (r) vs LaRocco (d) (ID), Kansas: Roberts (KS), Mississippi: Cochran (regular); South Carolina: Graham Tennessee: Alexander ; Texas: Cornyn; Wyoming (regular): Enzi; Wyoming (special): Barrasso (r) vs Carter (d)


Balance Of Power Tally: DEM-57, REP-40, TCTC-3

Current Balance: DEM-51 (49-D, 2-I) to REP-49

BOLD: Leading In Race 

Italics: Incumbent

US Senate Race Chart: DEM-56, REP-40, TCTC-4

Posted Oct 31, 2008 at 5:19 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

The fundamentals of the races for US Senate suggest a strong Democratic title in the new Congress. With PollTrack moving the Mississippi special race from "Too Close To Call" to "Lean Republican," the new balance of power reads: DEM-56, REP-40, TCTC-4. With the Republicans holding at least 40 seats according to out tabulation, it may be difficult for the Democrat's to meet their expressed goal of achieving a 60 seat majority-- the number needed to end a filibuster and close to the 2/3 required to override a presidential veto. To do so, the Democrats would have to pick Senate seats in some of the reddest states on the map, including Georgia, Kentucky, and Mississippi. But with Alaska possibly in the Democrats hands, one more wavering--and traditionally red state--may now be out of play for the Republicans. Below you will find updated polling averages for races marked "Too Close To Call." See chart below:

US Senate Race Chart: 31 October 2008

Solid Democrat: Arkanas: Pryor;  Delaware: Biden; Illinois: Durbin; Iowa: Harkin; Massachusetts: Kerry; Michigan: Levin; Montana: Baucus; New Jersey: Lautenberg; Rhode Island: Reed, West Virginia:  Rockefeller; Virginia: Warner (d) vs Gilmore (r) (VA)

Likely  Democrat: South Dakota: Johnson (SD)

Lean Democrat: Louisiana: Landrieu (LA); Colorado: Udall (d) vs Schaffer (r) (CO); New Mexico: Udall (d) vs Pierce (r) (NM); New Hampshire: Sununu (r) vs Shaheen (d); Alaska: Stevens (r)  vs Begich (d)

 

Too Close To Call (with PollTrack poll averages)

 

Georgia: Chambliss (r) 46.2% vs Martin (d) 43.2%

Minnesota: Coleman (r) 40.7% vs Franken (d) 38.7% vs Barkley (i) 14.3%

North Carolina: Dole (r) 44.5% vs Hagan (d) 46.5%

Oregon: Smith (r) 41.0% vs Merkley (d) 44.8%

 

Lean Republican: Kentucky: McConnell; Mississippi (special): Wicker (r) vs Musgrove (d)

Likely Republican: Maine: Collins (ME), Nebraska: Yohanns vs Kleeb (d); Oklahoma: Inhofe (OK)

Solid Republican: Alabama: Sessions ; Idaho: Lish (r) vs LaRocco (d) (ID), Kansas: Roberts (KS), Mississippi: Cochran (regular); South Carolina: Graham Tennessee: Alexander ; Texas: Cornyn; Wyoming (regular): Enzi; Wyoming (special): Barrasso (r) vs Carter (d)


Balance Of Power Tally: DEM-56, REP-39, TCTC-5

Current Balance: DEM-51 (49-D, 2-I) to REP-49

BOLD: Leading In Race 

Italics: Incumbent

US Senate Race Chart: DEM-56, REP-39, TCTC-5

Posted Oct 28, 2008 at 1:43 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

With US Senator Ted Stevens (R-AK) now convicted on seven ethics counts in Alaska, PollTrack tentatively moves the state into the leaning Democrat column. It is unclear as of this writing how the Republican party will handle this setback. As has been noted before, it may be difficult for the Democrat's to meet their expressed goal of achieving a 60 seat majority-- the number needed to end a filibuster and close to the 2/3 required to override a presidential veto. To do so, the Democrats would have to pick Senate seats in some of the reddest states on the map, including Georgia, Kentucky, and Mississippi. But with Alaska possibly in the Democrats hands, one more wavering--and traditionally red state--may now be out of play for the Republicans. See chart below:

US Senate Race Chart: 28 October 2008

Solid Democrat: Arkanas: Pryor;  Delaware: Biden; Illinois: Durbin; Iowa: Harkin; Massachusetts: Kerry; Michigan: Levin; Montana: Baucus; New Jersey: Lautenberg; Rhode Island: Reed, West Virginia:  Rockefeller; Virginia: Warner (d) vs Gilmore (r) (VA)

Likely  Democrat: South Dakota: Johnson (SD)

Lean Democrat: Louisiana: Landrieu (LA); Colorado: Udall (d) vs Schaffer (r) (CO); New Mexico: Udall (d) vs Pierce (r) (NM); New Hampshire: Sununu (r) vs Shaheen (d); Alaska: Stevens (r)  vs Begich (d)

 

Too Close To Call (with PollTrack poll averages)

 

Georgia: Chambliss (r) 46.0% vs Martin (d) 43.8%

Minnesota: Coleman (r) 37.0% vs Franken (d) 37.7% vs Barkley (i) 17.3%

Mississippi (special): Wicker (r) 48.0% vs Musgrove (d) 45.3%

North Carolina: Dole (r) 44.3% vs Hagan (d) 46.3%

Oregon: Smith (r) 41.0% vs Merkley (d) 44.0%

 

Lean Republican: Kentucky: McConnell 

Likely Republican: Maine: Collins (ME), Nebraska: Yohanns vs Kleeb (d); Oklahoma: Inhofe (OK)

Solid Republican: Alabama: Sessions ; Idaho: Lish (r) vs LaRocco (d) (ID), Kansas: Roberts (KS), Mississippi: Cochran (regular); South Carolina: Graham Tennessee: Alexander ; Texas: Cornyn; Wyoming (regular): Enzi; Wyoming (special): Barrasso (r) vs Carter (d)


Balance Of Power Tally: DEM-56, REP-39, TCTC-5

Current Balance: DEM-51 (49-D, 2-I) to REP-49

BOLD: Leading In Race 

Italics: Incumbent

US Senate Race Chart: DEM-55, REP-39, TCTC-6

Posted Oct 27, 2008 at 1:34 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack

With Democrat Jeanne Shaheen coming on strong in New Hampshire, PollTrack moves the state into the "Lean Democrat" column. PollTrack now believes it is highly likely the party will win enough seats to secure a solid majority. It may be difficult  for the Democrat's to meet their expressed goal of achieving a 60 seat majority-- the number needed to end a filibuster and close to the 2/3 required to override a presidential veto--may be difficult. To do so, the Democrats would have to pick Senate seats in some of the reddest states on the map, including Georgia, Kentucky, and Mississippi. See chart below:

US Senate Race Chart: 27 October 2008

Solid Democrat: Arkanas: Pryor;  Delaware: Biden; Illinois: Durbin; Iowa: Harkin; Massachusetts: Kerry; Michigan: Levin; Montana: Baucus; New Jersey: Lautenberg; Rhode Island: Reed, West Virginia:  Rockefeller; Virginia: Warner (d) vs Gilmore (r) (VA)

Likely  Democrat: South Dakota: Johnson (SD)

Lean Democrat: Louisiana: Landrieu (LA); Colorado: Udall (d) vs Schaffer (r) (CO); New Mexico: Udall (d) vs Pierce (r) (NM); New Hampshire: Sununu (r) vs Shaheen (d)

 

Too Close To Call (with PollTrack poll averages)

Alaska: Stevens (r) 46.7% vs Begich (d) 47.3% 

Georgia: Chambliss (r) 46.0% vs Martin (d) 43.8%

Minnesota: Coleman (r) 37.0% vs Franken (d) 37.7% vs Barkley (i) 17.3%

Mississippi (special): Wicker (r) 48.0% vs Musgrove (d) 45.3%

North Carolina: Dole (r) 44.3% vs Hagan (d) 46.3%

Oregon: Smith (r) 41.0% vs Merkley (d) 44.0%

 

Lean Republican: Kentucky: McConnell 

Likely Republican: Maine: Collins (ME), Nebraska: Yohanns vs Kleeb (d); Oklahoma: Inhofe (OK)

Solid Republican: Alabama: Sessions ; Idaho: Lish (r) vs LaRocco (d) (ID), Kansas: Roberts (KS), Mississippi: Cochran (regular); South Carolina: Graham Tennessee: Alexander ; Texas: Cornyn; Wyoming (regular): Enzi; Wyoming (special): Barrasso (r) vs Carter (d)


Balance Of Power Tally: DEM-55, REP-39, TCTC-6

Current Balance: DEM-51 (49-D, 2-I) to REP-49

BOLD: Leading In Race 

Italics: Incumbent

US Senate Race Chart: DEM-54, REP-39, TCTC-7

Posted Oct 22, 2008 at 9:38 AM
Maurice Berger, PollTrack Poltical Director

With a number of incumbent Republican seats in jeopardy, the Democrats are coming on strong in the battle for control of the US Senate. PollTrack now believes it is highly likely the party will win enough seats to secure a solid majority. The Democrat's expressed goal of achieving a 60 seat majority-- the number needed to end a filibuster and close to the 2/3 required to override a presidential veto--may be difficult. But with McCain's numbers faltering in a number of states where Senate races are too close to call--Minnesota, New Hampshire, Oregon, and even North Carolina--Obama's coattails may be enough to pull in the requisite six seats now need to reach the magic number. See chart below:

US Senate Race Chart: 22 October 2008

Solid Democrat: Arkanas: Pryor;  Delaware: Biden; Illinois: Durbin; Iowa: Harkin; Massachusetts: Kerry; Michigan: Levin; Montana: Baucus; New Jersey: Lautenberg; Rhode Island: Reed, West Virginia:  Rockefeller; Virginia: Warner (d) vs Gilmore (r) (VA)

Likely  Democrat: South Dakota: Johnson (SD)

Lean Democrat: Louisiana: Landrieu (LA); Colorado: Udall (d) vs Schaffer (r) (CO); New Mexico: Udall (d) vs Pierce (r) (NM)

 

Too Close To Call (with PollTrack poll averages)

Alaska: Stevens (r) 46.7% vs Begich (d) 47.3% 

Georgia: Chambliss (r) 47.0% vs Martin (d) 42.2%

Minnesota: Coleman (r) 37.8% vs Franken (d) 40.0% vs Barkley (i) 17.8%

Mississippi (special): Wicker (r) 48.0% vs Musgrove (d) 45.3%

New Hampshire: Sununu (r) 42.0% vs Shaheen 47.9% (d)

North Carolina: Dole (r) 44.3% vs Hagan (d) 47.0%

Oregon: Smith (r) 43.0% vs Merkley (d) 46.7%

 

Lean Republican: Kentucky: McConnell 

Likely Republican: Maine: Collins (ME), Nebraska: Yohanns vs Kleeb (d); Oklahoma: Inhofe (OK)

Solid Republican: Alabama: Sessions ; Idaho: Lish (r) vs LaRocco (d) (ID), Kansas: Roberts (KS), Mississippi: Cochran (regular); South Carolina: Graham Tennessee: Alexander ; Texas: Cornyn; Wyoming (regular): Enzi; Wyoming (special): Barrasso (r) vs Carter (d)


Balance Of Power Tally: DEM-54, REP-39, TCTC-7

Current Balance: DEM-51 (49-D, 2-I) to REP-49

BOLD: Leading In Race 

Italics: Incumbent