Posted Dec 08, 2008 at 1:39 AM
Maurice Berger, Political Director, PollTrack
With three separate vote counts now virtually complete in the Minnesota US Senate race (save for a handful of precincts and a little more than a hundred missing ballots), Republican incumbent Norm Coleman can boast that he has won three times. He may be winning another count, this one possibly as important as the first three: the expectations game. A new Rasmussen survey reports that 67% of Minnesota voters now expect Coleman to beat Democrat Al Franken. Just 16% say Franken will win, while 17% are not sure. According to Rasmussen, the expectations quotient crosses party lines: "Even 54% of Minnesota Democrats believe Coleman will be the winner once the recount of the race is completed." PollTrack believes that this factor--combined with three cionsecutive leads for the Republican--makes the political environment (as well as the raw numbers) less hospitable to a Franken upset.